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USGS2020

Dust deposited on snow cover in the San Juan Mountains, Colorado, 2011-2016: Compositional variability bearing on snow-melt effects

Light-absorbing particles in atmospheric dust deposited on snow cover (dust-on-snow, DOS) diminish albedo and accelerate the timing and rate of snow melt. Identification of these particles and their effects are relevant to snow-radiation modeling and thus water-resource management. Laboratory-measured reflectance of DOS samples from the San Juan Mountains (USA) were compared with DOS mass loading, particle sizes, iron mineralogy, carbonaceous matter type and content, and chemical compositions. Samples were collected each spring for water years 2011-2016, when individual dust layers had merged into one (all layers merged) at the snow surface. Average reflectance values of the six samples were 0.2153 (sd, 0.0331) across the visible wavelength region (0.4-0.7 µm) and 0.3570 (sd, 0.0498) over the full-measurement range (0.4-2.50 µm). Reflectance values correlated inversely to concentrations of ferric oxide, organic carbon (1.4-10 wt. %), magnetite (0.05-0.13 wt. %), and silt (PM63-3.9; median grain sizes averaged 21.4 µm) but lacked correspondence to total iron and PM10 contents. Measurements of reflectance and Mössbauer spectra and magnetic properties indicated that microcrystalline hematite and nano-size goethite were primarily responsible for diminished visible reflectance. Positive correlations between organic carbon and metals attributed to fossil-fuel combustion, with observations from electron microscopy, indicated that some carbonaceous matter occurred as black carbon. Magnetite was a surrogate for related light-absorbing minerals, dark rock particles, and contaminants. Similar analyses of DOS from other areas would help evaluate the influences of varied dust sources, wind-storm patterns, and anthropogenic inputs on snow melt and water resources in and beyond the Colorado River basin.

Colorado↗

USGS2009

Climatic effects of 30 years of landscape change over the Greater Phoenix, Arizona, region: 1. Surface energy budget changes

This paper is part 1 of a two-part study that evaluates the climatic effects of recent landscape change for one of the nation's most rapidly expanding metropolitan complexes, the Greater Phoenix, Arizona, region. The region's landscape evolution over an approximate 30-year period since the early 1970s is documented on the basis of analyses of Landsat images and land use/land cover (LULC) data sets derived from aerial photography (1973) and Landsat (1992 and 2001). High-resolution, Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), simulations (2-km grid spacing) are used in conjunction with consistently defined land cover data sets and associated biophysical parameters for the circa 1973, circa 1992, and circa 2001 time periods to quantify the impacts of intensive land use changes on the July surface temperatures and the surface radiation and energy budgets for the Greater Phoenix region. The main findings are as follows: since the early 1970s the region's landscape has been altered by a significant increase in urban/suburban land area, primarily at the expense of decreasing plots of irrigated agriculture and secondarily by the conversion of seminatural shrubland. Mean regional temperatures for the circa 2001 landscape were 0.12??C warmer than the circa 1973 landscape, with maximum temperature differences, located over regions of greatest urbanization, in excess of 1??C. The significant reduction in irrigated agriculture, for the circa 2001 relative to the circa 1973 landscape, resulted in dew point temperature decreases in excess of 1??C. The effect of distinct land use conversion themes (e.g., conversion from irrigated agriculture to urban land) was also examined to evaluate how the most important conversion themes have each contributed to the region's changing climate. The two urbanization themes studied (from an initial landscape of irrigated agriculture and seminatural shrubland) have the greatest positive effect on near-surface temperature, increasing maximum daily temperatures by 1??C. Overall, sensible heat flux differences between the circa 2001 and circa 1973 landscapes result in a 1 W m -2 increase in domain-wide sensible heating, and a similar order of magnitude decrease in latent heating, highlighting the importance of surface repartitioning in establishing near-surface temperature trends. In part 2 of this study, we address the role of the surface budget changes on the mesoscale dynamics/thermodynamics, in context of the large-scale environment. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2019

The Miocene Atastra Creek sinter (Bodie Hills volcanic field, California and Nevada): 4D evolution of a geomorphically intact siliceous hot spring deposit

The Atastra Creek siliceous hot spring deposit, or sinter, occurs in the Paramount-Bald Peak alteration zone, due north of the Bodie precious metals mining district in the Miocene Bodie Hills volcanic field, California and Nevada, U.S.A. Distinctive features include its geomorphically intact geyser vent mounds, the presence of growth-fault-stepped sinter terraces that developed westward along a NNW trending fault, and atypical Hg, Sb and As concentrations. High-temperature (>75 °C), subaerial, proximal apron sinter occurs in two settings – (1) radiating botryoidal geyserite in vent mounds and (2) bedded geyserite (columnar, nodular, size-sorted geyser eggs) intercalated with mid- to low-temperature (<60 °C), middle to distal apron terrace sinter. The active geyser vent mounds migrated from south to north across the apron terrace through time. A newly recognized, visually striking type of sinter – termed silica infiltrate herein – formed directly beneath the subaerial geyserite deposits. It is characterized by mainly parallel, thin, irregular beds of white silica with narrow borders of dark blue-gray silica, as well as swirly to globular white silica, all chaotically linked together by silica ‘necks’ and ‘bridges’. The silica infiltrate permeates the pre-existing sinter, and is interpreted to represent super-heated fluid injections into the immediately overlying geyser vent mounds and pools. The adjacent sinter sheets preserve fluid-flow directions of warm-water channels that traversed the discharge apron, including microbial streamer fabric and wavy laminated sinter with flattened bubbles. More distal sinter textures are recorded by rimmed terracettes with mammillated and palisade microbial fabrics and rare, warm pool-related stromatolites. However, plants are absent, probably due to the high metalloids, in particular As. Post-depositional events include an inferred hydrothermal eruption breccia and an interpreted drop in the water table accompanied by incursion of steam acid condensate, as evidenced by pervasive hydrothermal alteration of the Atastra Creek deposits. Hence, the well-exposed sedimentary facies distributions, well-preserved geomorphology, and stratigraphic and structural relationships together allow an unusually complete, paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the Atastra Creek paleohydrothermal deposit.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2001

Trends in long-period seismicity related to magmatic fluid compositions

Sound speeds and densities are calculated for three different types of fluids: gas-gas mixture; ash-gas mixture; and bubbly liquid. These fluid properties are used to calculate the impedance contrast (Z) and crack stiffness (C) in the fluid-driven crack model (Chouet: J. Geophys. Res., 91 (1986) 13,967; 101 (1988) 4375; A seismic model for the source of long-period events and harmonic tremor. In: Gasparini, P., Scarpa, R., Aki, K. (Eds.), Volcanic Seismology, IAVCEI Proceedings in Volcanology, Springer, Berlin, 3133). The fluid-driven crack model describes the far-field spectra of long-period (LP) events as modes of resonance of the crack. Results from our calculations demonstrate that ash-laden gas mixtures have fluid to solid density ratios comparable to, and fluid to solid velocity ratios lower than bubbly liquids (gas-volume fractions <10%). This difference results in synthetic far-field spectra with higher impedance contrasts and narrower spectral bandwidths for ash-laden gas mixture than spectra for bubbly liquids. Spectral characteristics are described in terms of the quality factor Q-1. Q-1 is measured by the ratio of the frequency of the dominant spectral peak to the bandwidth of the peak measured at one half of its amplitude. This factor expresses the losses of energy due to elastic radiation Q-1r and other dissipative mechanisms Q-1i at the source, Q-1 = Q-1r + Q-1i. Spectra for LP events recorded at active volcanoes such as Galeras in Colombia and Kilauea in Hawaii, have Q-1 factors in the range of 0.1-0.002. The Q-1r factors due to radiation loss calculated for a sphere filled with a H2O-CO2 or H2O-SO2 gas mixture, vary between 0.0015 and 0.0040 with a change in wt% H2O at 800-1600 K and 10-50 MPa. For gas-rich mixtures, Q-1r has a strong dependence on resonator geometry (spherical versus rectangular). The spectra from a resonating sphere filled with gas-rich mixture yields values of Q-1r an order of magnitude smaller than those from a rectangular crack. For a resonating crack filled with an ash-gas mixture (or pseudogas), Q-1r varies parabolically from ???0.006 for an ash-rich mixture, to 0.0015 or 0.0023 for a H2O-rich or CO2-rich mixture at 800 K and 25 MPa. For low (<20%) gas-volume fraction fluids (foams, bubbly fluids and ash-rich pseudogases), the magnitudes for Q-1r are independent of crack geometry. Spectra associated with a foam (gas-volume fractions 10-90%) or bubbly basalt (gas-volume fractions <10%) may have a dominant spectral peak with values of Q-1r on the order of 0.01 and 0.1, respectively. The spectra from a resonating sphere filled with a foam containing >20% gas-volume fraction yields values of Q-1r similar to those for a rectangular crack. As with gas-gas and ash-gas mixtures, an increase in mass fraction narrows the bandwidth of the dominant mode and shifts the spectra to lower frequencies. Including energy losses due to dissipative processes in a bubbly liquid increases attenuation. Attenuation may also be higher in ash-gas mixtures and foams if the effects of momentum and mass transfer between the phases were considered in the calculations. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B. V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS1999

Cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts in the Pacific

Co-rich Fe-Mn crusts occur throughout the Pacific on seamounts, ridges, and plateaus where currents have kept the rocks swept clean of sediments at least intermittently for millions of years. Crusts precipitate out of cold ambient sea water onto hard-rock substrates forming pavements up to 250 mm thick. Crusts are important as a potential resource for Co, Ni, Pt, Mn, Tl, Te, and other metals, as well as for the paleoclimate signals stored in their stratigraphic layers. Crusts form at water depths of about 400 to 4000 m, with the thickest and most Co-rich crusts occurring at depths of about 800 to 2500 m, which may vary on a regional scale. Gravity processes, sediment cover, submerged and emergent reefs, and currents control the distribution and thickness of crusts on seamounts. Crusts occur on a variety of substrate rocks that generally decrease in the order, breccia, basalt, phosphorite, limestone, hyaloclastite, and mudstone. Because of this wide variety of substrate types, crusts are difficult to distinguish from the substrate using remotely sensed data, such as geophysical measurements, but are generally weaker and lighter-weight than the substrate. Crusts can be distinguished from the substrates, however, by their much higher gamma radiation levels. The mean dry bulk density of crusts is 1.3 g/cm3, the mean porosity is 60%, and the mean surface area is extremely high, 300 m2/g. Crusts generally grow at rates of 1 to 10 mm/Ma. Crust surfaces are botryoidal, which may be modified to a variety of forms by current erosion. In cross-section, crusts are generally layered, with individual layers displaying massive, botryoidal, laminated, columnar, or mottled textures. Characteristic layering is persistent regionally in the Pacific. Crusts are composed of ferruginous vernadite (δ-MnO2) and X-ray amorphous Fe oxyhydroxide, with moderate amounts of carbonate fluorapatite (CFA) in thick crusts and minor amounts of quartz and feldspar in most crusts. Elements most commonly associated with the vernadite phase include Mn, Co, Ni, Cd, and Mo, whereas those most commonly associated with Fe oxyhydroxide are Fe and As. Detrital phases are represented by Si, Al, K, Ti, Cr, Mg, Fe, and Na; the CFA phase by Ca, P, Sr, Y, and CO2; and a residual biogenic phase by Ba, Sr, Ce, Cu, V, Ca, and Mg. Crusts contain Co contents up to about 2.3%, Ni to 1%, and Pt to 3 ppm, with mean Fe/Mn ratios of 0.6 to 1.3. Fe/Mn decreases, whereas Co, Ni, Ti, and Pt increase in central Pacific crusts and Fe/Mn, Si, and Al increase in continental margin crusts and in crusts with proximity to west Pacific volcanic arcs. Vernadite and CFA-related elements decrease, whereas Fe, Cu, and detrital-related elements increase with increasing water depth of crust occurrence. Cobalt, Ce, Tl, and maybe also Ti, Pb, and Pt are strongly concentrated in crusts over other metals because of oxidation reactions. Total rare earth elements (REEs) commonly vary between 0.1% and 0.3% and are derived from sea water along with other hydrogenetic elements, Co, Mn, Ni, etc. Platinum, Rh, Ir, and some Ru in crusts are also derived from sea water, whereas Pd and the remainder of the Ru derive from detrital minerals. The older parts of thick crusts were phosphatized during at least two global phosphogenic events during the Tertiary, which mobilized and redistributed elements in those parts of the crusts. 240Silicon, Fe, Al, Th, Ti, Co, Mn, Pb, and U are commonly depleted, whereas Ni, Cu, Zn, Y, REEs, Sr, and Pt are commonly enriched in phosphatized layers compared to younger nonphosphatized layers. The dominant controls on the concentration of elements in crusts include the concentration of metals in sea water and their ratios, colloid surface charge, types of complexing agents, surface area, and growth rates. Crusts act as closed systems with regard to the isotopic ratios of Be, Nd, Pb, Hf, Os, and U-series, which in part have been used to date crusts and in part used as isotopic tracers of paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic conditions. Those tracers are especially useful in delineating temporal changes in deep-ocean circulation. Research and development on the technology of mining crusts are only in their infancy. Detailed maps of crust deposits and a better understanding of small-scale seamount topography are required to design the most appropriate mining equipment.

Book chapter↗

USGS2010

Interpretation of surface flux measurements in heterogeneous terrain during the Monsoon '90 experiment

A network of 9-m-tall surface flux measurement stations were deployed at eight sparsely vegetated sites during the Monsoon '90 experiment to measure net radiation, Q , soil heat flux, G , sensible heat flux, H (using eddy correlation), and latent heat flux, λ E (using the energy balance equation). At four of these sites, 2-m-tall eddy correlation systems were used to measure all four fluxes directly. Also a 2-m-tall Bowen ratio system was deployed at one site. Magnitudes of the energy balance closure ( Q + G + H + λ E ) increased as the complexity of terrain increased. The daytime Bowen ratio decreased from about 10 before the monsoon season to about 0.3 during the monsoons. Source areas of the measurements are developed and compared to scales of heterogeneity arising from the sparse vegetation and the topography. There was very good agreement among simultaneous measurements of Q with the same model sensor at different heights (representing different source areas), but poor agreement among different brands of sensors. Comparisons of simultaneous measurements of G suggest that because of the extremely small source area, extreme care in sensor deployment is necessary for accurate measurement in sparse canopies. A recently published model to estimate fetch is used to interpret measurements of H at the 2 m and 9 m heights. Three sites were characterized by undulating topography, with ridgetops separated by about 200–600 m. At these sites, sensors were located on ridgetops, and the 9-m fetch included the adjacent valley, whereas the 2-m fetch was limited to the immediate ridgetop and hillside. Before the monsoons began, vegetation was mostly dormant, the watershed was uniformly hot and dry, and the two measurements of H were in close agreement. After the monsoons began and vegetation fully matured, the 2-m measurements of H were significantly greater than the 9-m measurements, presumably because the vegetation in the valleys was denser and cooler than on the ridgetops and hillsides. At one lowland site with little topographic relief, the vegetation was more uniform, and the two measurements of H were in close agreement during peak vegetation. Values of λ E could only be compared at two sites, but the 9-m values were greater than the 2-m values, suggesting λ E from the dense vegetation in the valleys was greater than elsewhere.

Water Environment Research↗

USGS2016

The role of crystallization-driven exsolution on the sulfur mass balance in volcanic arc magmas

The release of large amounts of sulfur to the stratosphere during explosive eruptions affects the radiative balance in the atmosphere and consequentially impacts climate for up to several years after the event. Quantitative estimations of the processes that control the mass balance of sulfur between melt, crystals, and vapor bubbles is needed to better understand the potential sulfur yield of individual eruption events and the conditions that favor large sulfur outputs to the atmosphere. The processes that control sulfur partitioning in magmas are (1) exsolution of volatiles (dominantly H 2 O) during decompression (first boiling) and during isobaric crystallization (second boiling), (2) the crystallization and breakdown of sulfide or sulfate phases in the magma, and (3) the transport of sulfur-rich vapor (gas influx) from deeper unerupted regions of the magma reservoir. Vapor exsolution and the formation/breakdown of sulfur-rich phases can all be considered as closed-system processes where mass balance arguments are generally easier to constrain, whereas the contribution of sulfur by vapor transport (open system process) is more difficult to quantify. The ubiquitous “excess sulfur” problem, which refers to the much higher sulfur mass released during eruptions than what can be accounted for by amount of sulfur originally dissolved in erupted melt, as estimated from melt inclusion sulfur concentrations (the “petrologic estimate”), reflects the challenges in closing the sulfur mass balance between crystals, melt, and vapor before and during a volcanic eruption. In this work, we try to quantify the relative importance of closed- and open-system processes for silicic arc volcanoes using kinetic models of sulfur partitioning during exsolution. Our calculations show that crystallization-induced exsolution (second boiling) can generate a significant fraction of the excess sulfur observed in crystal-rich arc magmas. This result does not negate the important role of vapor migration in sulfur mass balance but rather points out that second boiling (in situ exsolution) can provide the necessary yield to drive the excess sulfur to the levels observed for crystal-rich systems. In contrast, in crystal-poor systems, magma recharge that releases sulfur-rich bubbles is necessary and most likely the primary contributor to sulfur mass balance. Finally, we apply our model to account for the effect of sulfur partitioning during second boiling and its impact on sulfur released during the Cerro Galan supereruption in Argentina (2.08 Ma) and show the potential importance of second boiling in releasing a large amount of sulfur to the atmosphere during the eruption of large crystal-rich ignimbrites.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2010

Coherence of Mach fronts during heterogeneous supershear earthquake rupture propagation: Simulations and comparison with observations

We study how heterogeneous rupture propagation affects the coherence of shear and Rayleigh Mach wavefronts radiated by supershear earthquakes. We address this question using numerical simulations of ruptures on a planar, vertical strike-slip fault embedded in a three-dimensional, homogeneous, linear elastic half-space. Ruptures propagate spontaneously in accordance with a linear slip-weakening friction law through both homogeneous and heterogeneous initial shear stress fields. In the 3-D homogeneous case, rupture fronts are curved owing to interactions with the free surface and the finite fault width; however, this curvature does not greatly diminish the coherence of Mach fronts relative to cases in which the rupture front is constrained to be straight, as studied by Dunham and Bhat (2008a). Introducing heterogeneity in the initial shear stress distribution causes ruptures to propagate at speeds that locally fluctuate above and below the shear wave speed. Calculations of the Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) of ground velocity time histories corroborate the kinematic results of Bizzarri and Spudich (2008a): (1) The ground motion of a supershear rupture is richer in high frequency with respect to a subshear one. (2) When a Mach pulse is present, its high frequency content overwhelms that arising from stress heterogeneity. Present numerical experiments indicate that a Mach pulse causes approximately an ω −1.7 high frequency falloff in the FAS of ground displacement. Moreover, within the context of the employed representation of heterogeneities and over the range of parameter space that is accessible with current computational resources, our simulations suggest that while heterogeneities reduce peak ground velocity and diminish the coherence of the Mach fronts, ground motion at stations experiencing Mach pulses should be richer in high frequencies compared to stations without Mach pulses. In contrast to the foregoing theoretical results, we find no average elevation of 5%-damped absolute response spectral accelerations (SA) in the period band 0.05–0.4 s observed at stations that presumably experienced Mach pulses during the 1979 Imperial Valley, 1999 Kocaeli, and 2002 Denali Fault earthquakes compared to SA observed at non-Mach pulse stations in the same earthquakes. A 20% amplification of short period SA is seen only at a few of the Imperial Valley stations closest to the fault. This lack of elevated SA suggests that either Mach pulses in real earthquakes are even more incoherent that in our simulations or that Mach pulses are vulnerable to attenuation through nonlinear soil response. In any case, this result might imply that current engineering models of high frequency earthquake ground motions do not need to be modified by more than 20% close to the fault to account for Mach pulses, provided that the existing data are adequately representative of ground motions from supershear earthquakes.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2000

Detection of crystalline hematite mineralization on Mars by the Thermal Emission Spectrometer: evidence for near-surface water

The Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument on the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) mission has discovered a remarkable accumulation of crystalline hematite (α-Fe 2 O 3 ) that covers an area with very sharp boundaries approximately 350 by 350–750 km in size centered near 2°S latitude between 0° and 5°W longitude (Sinus Meridiani). Crystalline hematite is uniquely identified by the presence of fundamental vibrational absorption features centered near 300, 450, and >525 cm −1 and by the absence of silicate fundamentals in the 1000 cm −1 region. Spectral features resulting from atmospheric CO 2 , dust, and water ice were removed using a radiative transfer model. The spectral properties unique to Sinus Meridiani were emphasized by removing the average spectrum of the surrounding region. The depth and shape of the hematite fundamental bands show that the hematite is crystalline and relatively coarse grained (>5–10 μm). Diameters up to and greater than hundreds of micrometers are permitted within the instrumental noise and natural variability of hematite spectra. Hematite particles <5–10 μm in diameter (as either unpacked or hard-packed powders) fail to match the TES spectra. The spectrally derived areal abundance of hematite varies with particle size from ∼10% (>30 μm diameter) to 40–60% (10 μm diameter). The hematite in Sinus Meridiani is thus distinct from the fine-grained (diameter <5–10 μm), red, crystalline hematite considered, on the basis of visible, near-IR data, to be a minor spectral component in Martian bright regions like Olympus-Amazonis. Sinus Meridiani hematite is closely associated with a smooth, layered, friable surface that is interpreted to be sedimentary in origin. This material may be the uppermost surface in the region, indicating that it might be a late stage sedimentary unit or a layered portion of the heavily cratered plains units. We consider five possible mechanisms for the formation of coarse-grained, crystalline hematite. These processes fall into two classes depending on whether they require a significant amount of near-surface water: the first is chemical precipitation that includes origin by (1) precipitation from standing, oxygenated, Fe-rich water (oxide iron formations), (2) precipitation from Fe-rich hydrothermal fluids, (3) low-temperature dissolution and precipitation through mobile ground water leaching, and (4) formation of surface coatings, and the second is thermal oxidation of magnetite-rich lavas. Weathering and alteration processes, which produce nanophase and red hematite, are not consistent with the coarse, crystalline hematite observed in Sinus Meridiani. We prefer chemical precipitation models and favor precipitation from Fe-rich water on the basis of the probable association with sedimentary materials, large geographic size, distance from a regional heat source, and lack of evidence for extensive groundwater processes elsewhere on Mars. The TES results thus provide mineralogic evidence for probable large-scale water interactions. The Sinus Meridiani region may be an ideal candidate for future landed missions searching for biotic and prebiotic environments, and the physical characteristics of this site satisfy all of the engineering requirements for the missions currently planned.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2013

Review of revised Klamath River Total Maximum Daily Load models from Link River Dam to Keno Dam, Oregon

Flow and water-quality models are being used to support the development of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) plans for the Klamath River downstream of Upper Klamath Lake (UKL) in south-central Oregon. For riverine reaches, the RMA-2 and RMA-11 models were used, whereas the CE-QUAL-W2 model was used to simulate pooled reaches. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was asked to review the most upstream of these models, from Link River Dam at the outlet of UKL downstream through the first pooled reach of the Klamath River from Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam. Previous versions of these models were reviewed in 2009 by USGS. Since that time, important revisions were made to correct several problems and address other issues. This review documents an assessment of the revised models, with emphasis on the model revisions and any remaining issues. The primary focus of this review is the 19.7-mile Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam reach of the Klamath River that was simulated with the CE-QUAL-W2 model. Water spends far more time in the Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam reach than in the 1-mile Link River reach that connects UKL to the Klamath River, and most of the critical reactions affecting water quality upstream of Keno Dam occur in that pooled reach. This model review includes assessments of years 2000 and 2002 current conditions scenarios, which were used to calibrate the model, as well as a natural conditions scenario that was used as the reference condition for the TMDL and was based on the 2000 flow conditions. The natural conditions scenario included the removal of Keno Dam, restoration of the Keno reef (a shallow spot that was removed when the dam was built), removal of all point-source inputs, and derivation of upstream boundary water-quality inputs from a previously developed UKL TMDL model. This review examined the details of the models, including model algorithms, parameter values, and boundary conditions; the review did not assess the draft Klamath River TMDL or the TMDL allocations. Attention to the details of a model is one of the best ways to identify potential problems, correct them if possible, and begin to assess the magnitude of potential model errors and uncertainty. Model users need to determine the level of acceptable uncertainty associated with their objectives, identify all sources of potential uncertainty (model uncertainty, data uncertainty, etc.), and assess their approach and results accordingly. In the draft Klamath River TMDL, the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality identified the upstream boundary conditions as the largest source of uncertainty for both the current and natural conditions scenarios, not the model algorithms or choice of model parameters. We agree that the upstream boundary conditions are one of the largest, if not the largest, source of model uncertainty; therefore, the derivation of upstream boundary conditions may be more important to the TMDL than some other model-related issues identified in this review. The revised models contain a number of changes, some of which were done to solve small problems and are largely inconsequential to model results, but others of which are important and affect model predictions of instream concentrations. A consistent version of the model is now applied to all scenarios, and an error in the source code was corrected that had inadvertently discarded 20 percent of the incoming solar radiation in the original model. The baseline light-extinction coefficient for water was decreased and set to a consistent and defensible value across all models of reservoir reaches. Inconsistencies among the values of certain parameters in the original models, such as the ammonia nitrification rate and the decomposition rates of organic matter, have been eliminated, although the reasoning behind the final selections was not documented. The dependence of the rate of sediment oxygen demand (SOD) on temperature was modified such that the SOD rate was substantially decreased at temperatures less than 20°C, causing the model to predict higher dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations in spring, autumn, and winter. Although that change to the temperature dependence function was done to make the function more similar to the model’s default, this change was not accompanied by any documentation of recalibration or sensitivity exercises. The maximum SOD rate for the 2002 current conditions scenario was decreased from 3.0 grams per square meter per day (g/m 2 /d) in the original model to 2.0 g/m 2 /d in the revised model, a considerable adjustment that appears to have been needed to offset effects of a change to another variable (O2LIM) that would have resulted in a substantial increase in the effective SOD rate for 2002. A 50-percent decrease in the SOD rate over a 2-year period, however, is not likely to be mirrored by field measurements, so this change may be compensating for some process that is not represented correctly in the DO budget for the current conditions scenarios. Several important changes were made to the natural conditions scenario. First, the elevation of the Keno reef was corrected; the elevation specified in the original model was 1 foot too high, which affected the volume of the pooled reach and the travel time through it. The most important changes to this scenario were to the upstream boundary inputs of organic matter and algae, which affect incoming fluxes of nitrogen and phosphorus. Algal biomass inputs were increased by approximately 60 percent during summer because of a change in the way those inputs were derived from results of the UKL TMDL model. Non-algal organic matter inputs were decreased, particularly in summer to correct a problem attributed to double-counting of phosphorus in the original inputs. The distribution of non-algal organic matter was changed from 20 percent dissolved in the original model to 90 percent dissolved in the revised model in response to review comments and published data. The overall sum of algal biomass and non-living organic matter was decreased, which resulted in lower inputs of total phosphorus and nitrogen. Total phosphorus inputs were less than 0.03 mg/L, and although the inputs were derived from selected results of the UKL TMDL model, these concentrations seem too low to be representative of a historically eutrophic system surrounded by extensive wetlands, peat soils, and a groundwater system high in phosphorus. The draft TMDL states that the upstream boundary conditions are the greatest source of uncertainty, greater than any uncertainty associated with the models. Efforts to improve existing models of algal growth and nutrient cycling in UKL, therefore, would provide a substantial benefit to downstream modeling efforts on the Klamath River. Although many improvements were made in revising the Klamath River TMDL models, some issues and uncertainties remain. Several errors in the model source code remain, but do not affect model results for this application as long as certain options and rates are not changed; future users of these models should be aware of these issues. Although the distribution of dissolved and particulate organic matter was modified for the natural conditions scenario, that distribution was not changed for the current conditions scenarios. Recent data on that distribution and the likely rates of organic matter decomposition could be used to improve these models in the future. Nitrate predictions at Keno (Highway 66) still are too high for the current conditions scenarios; future efforts should re-evaluate the model’s denitrification rates and the release rate of ammonia from anoxic sediments. Possibly the most important of the remaining issues are tied to the two-state (healthy/unhealthy) hypothesis for the algae population that was coded into the model. Some of the rates and conversion functions could be refined to make them more acceptable; currently, the published literature does not support the concept of moderately low dissolved-oxygen concentrations as a stressor of algae in the ranges used by the model. More research is needed before these algorithms can be truly tested. The algorithms currently appear to help the model fit the patterns in the available data, and that is useful and perhaps sufficient for some purposes, but those algorithms are not truly predictive or reliable for certain purposes until they can be tested through well-designed experiments and research. In summary, the TMDL models used to simulate Link and Klamath Rivers from Link River Dam to Keno Dam were revised to fix several problems and address various issues. The resulting models are an improvement over those that were reviewed by USGS in 2009, and represent a useful advance in the simulation of a complex system that is difficult to model. However, several issues remain that cause increased uncertainty in the model results. Depending on the objectives of the modeling, now or in the future, these remaining issues could be more or less important. For the Klamath River TMDL, the upstream boundary conditions may be a larger source of uncertainty than the concerns with model algorithms and model parameters identified in this review. Efforts to re-evaluate the available models of algal growth and nutrient cycling in UKL would be highly beneficial to downstream modeling efforts in the Klamath River.

Oregon;California↗