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Results for “Journal of Geophysical Research, Earth Surface”

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At least 253 records · Page 14Linked to original sources

USGS2012

Mineralogy and geochemistry of a sediment‐hosted hydrothermal sulfide deposit from the Southern Trough of Guaymas Basin, Gulf of California

Samples dredged from a 15‐m‐high hydrothermal mound atop the flat turbidite pond in the Southern Trough of Guaymas Basin consist of pyrrhotite‐rich massive sulfide, barite, barite + calcite, talc, and opaline silica as well as substrate material composed of fossiliferous, clay‐rich ooze. An 11‐m‐long sediment core taken near the dredge site shows increasing hydrothermal alteration with depth; anhydrite‐filled fractures near the base of the core appear to be channels for hydrothermal discharge. Oxidation of the sulfide‐rich samples to an assemblage of geothite, lepidocrocite, and amorphous Fe oxyhydroxide is ubiquitous. Compared to other massive sulfide deposits on sediment‐starved oceanic ridges, the hydrothermal deposit dredged in Guaymas Basin has a high pyrrhotite/pyrite ratio, a low Zn sulfide and combined ore metal (Cu + Zn + Pb + Ag + Cd) content, and a greater abundance of sulfate, carbonate, and silicate phases. Venting hydrothermal solutions are alkaline with moderately high p H; high Ca, Ba, and SiO 2 content; low ƒS 2 and ƒo 2 ; and very low transition metal content. Disequilibrium assemblages of pyrrhotite and sulfate minerals form during rapid mixing of this evolved vent fluid with ambient bottom waters at the discharge site. Talc is formed at a temperature near 270°C by mixing or entrainment of Mg‐rich bottom water or pore fluid with upwelling hydrothermal fluid that is saturated with silica. Calcite may precipitate from the alkaline, Ca‐rich fluid during degassing of CO 2 . The minimum temperature range for sulfide and nonsulfide deposition is approximately 190°–326°C. The composition of hydrothermal deposits, vent solutions, and altered sediment requires that circulating fluids evolve during deep penetration into the basaltic basement complex, further interaction with the organic‐and carbonate‐rich sediment pile, and near‐surface mixing with ambient seawater. Although the stable assemblage albite‐epidote‐clinochlore present at depth in the sediment pile requires very low dissolved Mg and Fe in the altering fluid, the addition of Mg to deeply buried sediment indicates significant recharge of the system by Guaymas Basin bottom water.

Southern Trough of Guaymas Basin↗

USGS2013

The role of viscous magma mush spreading in volcanic flank motion at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i

Multiple mechanisms have been suggested to explain seaward motion of the south flank of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i. The consistency of flank motion during both waxing and waning magmatic activity at Kīlauea suggests that a continuously acting force, like gravity body force, plays a substantial role. Using finite element models, we test whether gravity is the principal driver of long-term motion of Kīlauea's flank. We compare our model results to geodetic data from Global Positioning System and interferometric synthetic aperture radar during a time period with few magmatic and tectonic events (2000-2003), when deformation of Kīlauea was dominated by summit subsidence and seaward motion of the south flank. We find that gravity-only models can reproduce the horizontal surface velocities if we incorporate a regional décollement fault and a deep, low-viscosity magma mush zone. To obtain quasi steady state horizontal surface velocities that explain the long-term seaward motion of the flank, we find that an additional weak zone is needed, which is an extensional rift zone above the magma mush. The spreading rate in our model is mainly controlled by the magma mush viscosity, while its density plays a less significant role. We find that a viscosity of 2.5 × 1017–2.5 × 1019 Pa s for the magma mush provides an acceptable fit to the observed horizontal surface deformation. Using high magma mush viscosities, such as 2.5 × 1019 Pa s, the deformation rates remain more steady state over longer time scales. These models explain a significant amount of the observed subsidence at Kīlauea's summit. Some of the remaining subsidence is probably a result of magma withdrawal from subsurface reservoirs.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2005

New constraints on mechanisms of remotely triggered seismicity at Long Valley Caldera

Regional-scale triggering of local earthquakes in the crust by seismic waves from distant main shocks has now been robustly documented for over a decade. Some of the most thoroughly recorded examples of repeated triggering of a single site from multiple, large earthquakes are measured in geothermal fields of the western United States like Long Valley Caldera. As one of the few natural cases where the causality of an earthquake sequence is apparent, triggering provides fundamental constraints on the failure processes in earthquakes. We show here that the observed triggering by seismic waves is inconsistent with any mechanism that depends on cumulative shaking as measured by integrated energy density. We also present evidence for a frequency-dependent triggering threshold. On the basis of the seismic records of 12 regional and teleseismic events recorded at Long Valley Caldera, long-period waves (>30 s) are more effective at generating local seismicity than short-period waves of comparable amplitude. If the properties of the system are stationary over time, the failure threshold for long-period waves is ~0.05 cm/s vertical shaking. Assuming a phase velocity of 3.5 km/s and an elastic modulus of 3.5 x 10 10 Pa, the threshold in terms of stress is 5 kPa. The frequency dependence is due in part to the attenuation of the surface waves with depth. Fluid flow through a porous medium can produce the rest of the observed frequency dependence of the threshold. If the threshold is not stationary with time, pore pressures that are >99.5% of lithostatic and vary over time by a factor of 4 could explain the observations with no frequency dependence of the triggering threshold.

California↗

USGS2003

Location of seismic events and eruptive fissures on the Piton de la Fournaise volcano using seismic amplitudes

We present a method for locating the source of seismic events on Piton de la Fournaise. The method is based on seismic amplitudes corrected for station site effects using coda site amplification factors. Once corrected, the spatial distribution of amplitudes shows smooth and simple contours for many types of events, including rockfalls, long-period events and eruption tremor. On the basis of the simplicity of these distributions we develop inversion methods for locating their origins. To achieve this, the decrease of the amplitude as a function of the distance to the source is approximated by the decay either of surface or body waves in a homogeneous medium. The method is effective for locating rockfalls, long-period events, and eruption tremor sources. The sources of eruption tremor are usually found to be located at shallow depth and close to the eruptive fissures. Because of this, our method is a useful tool for locating fissures at the beginning of eruptions.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2012

Externally triggered renewed bubble nucleation in basaltic magma: the 12 October 2008 eruption at Halema‘uma‘u Overlook vent, Kīlauea, Hawai‘i, USA

From October 2008 until present, dozens of small impulsive explosive eruptions occurred from the Overlook vent on the southeast side of Halema‘uma‘u Crater, at Kīlauea volcano, USA. These eruptions were triggered by rockfalls from the walls of the volcanic vent and conduit onto the top of the lava column. Here we use microtextural observations and data from clasts erupted during the well-characterized 12 October 2008 explosive eruption at Halema‘uma‘u to extend existing models of eruption triggering. We present a potential mechanism for this eruption by combining microtextural observations with existing geophysical and visual data sets. We measure the size and number density of bubbles preserved in juvenile ejecta using 2D images and X-ray microtomography. Our data suggest that accumulations of large bubbles with diameters of >50 μ m to at least millimeters existed at shallow levels within the conduit prior to the 12 October 2008 explosion. Furthermore, a high number density of small bubbles <50 μ m is measured in the clasts, implying very rapid nucleation of bubbles. Visual observations, combined with preexisting geophysical data, suggest that the impact of rockfalls onto the magma free surface induces pressure changes over short timescales that (1) nucleated new additional bubbles in the shallow conduit leading to high number densities of small bubbles and (2) expanded the preexisting bubbles driving upward acceleration. The trigger of eruption and bubble nucleation is thus external to the degassing system.

Hawaii↗

USGS2012

Postseismic deformation following the 1989 (M = 7.1): Loma Prieta, California, earthquake

Postseismic deformation along a 90‐km profile bisecting the projected surface trace of the coseismic rupture of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake has been monitored by frequent GPS surveys for 3.3 years following the earthquake. In addition to the expected deformation associated with secular strain accumulation on the San Andreas and Calaveras faults, deformation associated with postseismic readjustment has been detected. Most of that deformation can be attributed to 1.5 m right‐lateral and 0.9 m reverse postseismic slip on a 5‐km‐wide downdip extension of the Loma Prieta rupture. In addition, there seems to be a 0.1 m postseismic collapse of the Loma Prieta rupture zone in the direction perpendicular to the plane of the rupture. The fault‐normal (N48°E) surface displacements plotted as a function of time exhibit a curvature suggesting a relaxation time of about 1.4 years. Similar plots of the fault‐parallel (N42°W) displacement components do not exhibit significant curvature. Presumably, the deformation shown in those plots is dominated by secular strain accumulation along the San Andreas and Calaveras faults rather than postseismic relaxation.

California↗

USGS1996

Detection and monitoring of H2O and CO2 ice clouds on Mars

We have developed an observational scheme for the detection and discrimination of Mars atmospheric H 2 O and CO 2 clouds using ground-based instruments in the near infrared. We report the results of our cloud detection and characterization study using Mars near IR images obtained during the 1990 and 1993 oppositions. We focused on specific wavelengths that have the potential, based on previous laboratory studies of H 2 O and CO 2 ices, of yielding the greatest degree of cloud detectability and compositional discriminability. We have detected and mapped absorption features at some of these wavelengths in both the northern and southern polar regions of Mars. Compositional information on the nature of these absorption features was derived from comparisons with laboratory ice spectra and with a simplified radiative transfer model of a CO 2 ice cloud overlying a bright surface. Our results indicate that both H 2 O and CO 2 ices can be detected and distinguished in the polar hood clouds. The region near 3.00 μm is most useful for the detection of water ice clouds because there is a strong H 2 O ice absorption at this wavelength but only a weak CO 2 ice band. The region near 3.33 μm is most useful for the detection of CO 2 ice clouds because there is a strong, relatively narrow CO 2 ice band at this wavelength but only broad “continuum” H 2 O ice absorption. Weaker features near 2.30 μm could arise from CO 2 ice at coarse grain sizes, or surface/dust minerals. Narrow features near 2.00 μm, which could potentially be very diagnostic of CO 2 ice clouds, suffer from contamination by Mars atmospheric CO 2 absorptions and are difficult to interpret because of the rather poor knowledge of surface elevation at high latitudes. These results indicate that future ground-based, Earth-orbital, and spacecraft studies over a more extended span of the seasonal cycle should yield substantial information on the style and timing of volatile transport on Mars, as well as a more detailed understanding of the role of CO 2 condensation in the polar heat budget.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2011

Volcanic plume height measured by seismic waves based on a mechanical model

In August 2008 an unmonitored, largely unstudied Aleutian volcano, Kasatochi, erupted catastrophically. Here we use seismic data to infer the height of large eruptive columns such as those of Kasatochi based on a combination of existing fluid and solid mechanical models. In so doing, we propose a connection between a common, observable, short-period seismic wave amplitude to the physics of an eruptive column. To construct a combined model, we estimate the mass ejection rate of material from the vent on the basis of the plume height, assuming that the height is controlled by thermal buoyancy for a continuous plume. Using the estimated mass ejection rate, we then derive the equivalent vertical force on the Earth through a momentum balance. Finally, we calculate the far-field surface waves resulting from the vertical force. The model performs well for recent eruptions of Kasatochi and Augustine volcanoes if v , the velocity of material exiting the vent, is 120-230 m s -1 . The consistency between the seismically inferred and measured plume heights indicates that in these cases the far-field ~1 s seismic energy radiated by fluctuating flow in the volcanic jet during the eruption is a useful indicator of overall mass ejection rates. Thus, use of the model holds promise for characterizing eruptions and evaluating ash hazards to aircraft in real time on the basis of far-field short-period seismic data. This study emphasizes the need for better measurements of eruptive plume heights and a more detailed understanding of the full spectrum of seismic energy radiated coeruptively.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2014

Triggering and modulation of geyser eruptions in Yellowstone National Park by earthquakes, earth tides, and weather

We analyze intervals between eruptions (IBEs) data acquired between 2001 and 2011 at Daisy and Old Faithful geysers in Yellowstone National Park. We focus our statistical analysis on the response of these geysers to stress perturbations from within the solid earth (earthquakes and earth tides) and from weather (air pressure and temperature, precipitation, and wind). We conclude that (1) the IBEs of these geysers are insensitive to periodic stresses induced by solid earth tides and barometric pressure variations; (2) Daisy (pool geyser) IBEs lengthen by evaporation and heat loss in response to large wind storms and cold air; and (3) Old Faithful (cone geyser) IBEs are not modulated by air temperature and pressure variations, wind, and precipitation, suggesting that the subsurface water column is decoupled from the atmosphere. Dynamic stress changes of 0.1−0.2 MPa resulting from the 2002 M-7.9 Denali, Alaska, earthquake surface waves caused a statistically significant shortening of Daisy geyser's IBEs. Stresses induced by other large global earthquakes during the study period were at least an order of magnitude smaller. In contrast, dynamic stresses of >0.5 MPa from three large regional earthquakes in 1959, 1975, and 1983 caused lengthening of Old Faithful's IBEs. We infer that most subannual geyser IBE variability is dominated by internal processes and interaction with other geysers. The results of this study provide quantitative bounds on the sensitivity of hydrothermal systems to external stress perturbations and have implications for studying the triggering and modulation of volcanic eruptions by external forces.

Wyoming↗

USGS2019

Insights into pāhoehoe lava emplacement using visible and thermal structure-from-motion photogrammetry

We present the evolution over 3 months of a 2016–2017 pāhoehoe flow at Kīlauea as it changed from a narrow sheet flow into a compound lava field fed by a stable system of tubes. The portion of the flow located on Kīlauea's coastal plain was characterized using helicopter‐based visible and thermal structure‐from‐motion photogrammetry to construct a series of georeferenced digital surface models and thermal maps on eight different days. Results reveal key influences on the emplacement and evolution of such long‐lived pāhoehoe flows. This region of the flow grew by ~12 × 10 6 m 3 with a near‐constant time‐average discharge rate of 1.2–2.7 m 3 /s. The development of two tube systems is captured and shows an initial nascent tube enhanced by a narrow topographic confinement, which later inflated and created a topographic inversion that modulated the emplacement of a second flow lobe with its own tube system. The analysis of breakouts at various stages of the field's life suggests that the evolution of the thermal and morphological properties of the flow surface reflect its maturity. Thermal properties of breakouts were used to expand the empirical relationship of breakout cooling to longer timescales. This study contributes to the long‐term development and validation of more accurate predictive models for pāhoehoe, required during the management of long‐lasting lava flow crises in Hawai'i and elsewhere.

Hawaii↗

USGS2012

Gravity model and structural implications of the Goddard Pendant, Sierra Nevada, California

A subsurface model for the Goddard pendant is constructed from a residual gravity high of about 7 mGal over the pendant. The model, which is the simplest and most geologically reasonable possibility, shows a metamorphic block that tapers with depth and extends about 3.5 km below the surface. The structures in the Goddard pendant are similar in style and orientation to those in other Sierra Nevada pendants, indicating that the country rock was neither deformed nor rotated during pluton emplacement. Consequently, emplacement must have been a passive rather than a forceful process. The pendant itself represents a piece of country rock trapped between plutons which are dome shaped in cross section.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2014

A continuous record of intereruption velocity change at Mount St. Helens from coda wave interferometry

In September 2004, Mount St. Helens volcano erupted after nearly 18 years of quiescence. However, it is unclear from the limited geophysical observations when or if the magma chamber replenished following the 1980–1986 eruptions in the years before the 2004–2008 extrusive eruption. We use coda wave interferometry with repeating earthquakes to measure small changes in the velocity structure of Mount St. Helens volcano that might indicate magmatic intrusion. By combining observations of relative velocity changes from many closely located earthquake sources, we solve for a continuous function of velocity changes with time. We find that seasonal effects dominate the relative velocity changes. Seismicity rates and repeating earthquake occurrence also vary seasonally; therefore, velocity changes and seismicity are likely modulated by snow loading, fluid saturation, and/or changes in groundwater level. We estimate hydrologic effects impart stress changes on the order of tens of kilopascals within the upper 4 km, resulting in annual velocity variations of 0.5 to 1%. The largest nonseasonal change is a decrease in velocity at the time of the deep M w  = 6.8 Nisqually earthquake. We find no systematic velocity changes during the most likely times of intrusions, consistent with a lack of observable surface deformation. We conclude that if replenishing intrusions occurred, they did not alter seismic velocities where this technique is sensitive due to either their small size or the finite compressibility of the magma chamber. We interpret the observed velocity changes and shallow seasonal seismicity as a response to small stress changes in a shallow, pressurized system.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2020

The induced Mw 5.0 March 2020 west Texas seismic sequence

On March 26, 2020, a M 5.0 earthquake occurred in the Delaware Basin, Texas, near the border between Reeves and Culberson Counties. This was the third largest earthquake recorded in Texas and the largest earthquake in the Central and Eastern United States since the three M 5.0–5.8 induced events in Oklahoma during 2016. Using multistation waveform template matching, we detect 3,940 earthquakes in the sequence with the first event in the area occurring in May 2018. The M 5.0 earthquake sequence occurred on a ENE (∼082°) normal fault dipping ∼37° toward the south. The earthquake caused 6 mm of oblique surface deformation, and geodetic slip inversion suggests slip was isolated above 6 km depth. We find that the sequence was most likely induced by nearby wastewater disposal operations, and seismicity rates in the region surrounding the M 5.0 will likely continue to increase in the future if disposal operations continue unaltered.

Texas↗

USGS1996

Mapping playa evaporite minerals and associated sediments in Death Valley, California, with multispectral thermal infrared images

Efflorescent salt crusts and associated sediments in Death Valley, California, were studied with remote-sensing data acquired by the NASA thermal infrared multispectral scanner (TIMS). Nine spectral classes that represent a variety of surface materials were distinguished, including several classes that reflect important aspects of the playa groundwater chemistry and hydrology. Evaporite crusts containing abundant thenardite (sodium sulfate) were mapped along the northern and eastern margins of the Cottonball Basin, areas where the inflow waters are rich in sodium. Gypsum (calcium sulfate) crusts were more common in the Badwater Basin, particularly near springs associated with calcic groundwaters along the western basin margin. Evaporite-rich crusts generally marked areas where groundwater is periodically near the surface and thus able to replenish the crusts though capillary evaporation. Detrital silicate minerals were prevalent in other parts of the salt pan where shallow groundwater does not affect the surface composition. The surface features in Death Valley change in response to climatic variations on several different timescales. For example, salt crusts on low-lying mudflats form and redissolve during seasonal-to-interannual cycles of wetting and desiccation. In contrast, recent flooding and erosion of rough-salt surfaces in Death Valley probably reflect increased regional precipitation spanning several decades. Remote-sensing observations of playas can provide a means for monitoring changes in evaporite facies and for better understanding the associated climatic processes. At present, such studies are limited by the availability of suitable airborne scanner data. However, with the launch of the Earth Observing System (EOS) AM-1 Platform in 1998, multispectral visible/near-infrared and thermal infrared remote-sensing data will become globally available.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2015

Earthquake rupture process recreated from a natural fault surface

What exactly happens on the rupture surface as an earthquake nucleates, spreads, and stops? We cannot observe this directly, and models depend on assumptions about physical conditions and geometry at depth. We thus measure a natural fault surface and use its 3D coordinates to construct a replica at 0.1 m resolution to obviate geometry uncertainty. We can recreate stick-slip behavior on the resulting finite element model that depends solely on observed fault geometry. We clamp the fault together and apply steady state tectonic stress until seismic slip initiates and terminates. Our recreated M~1 earthquake initiates at contact points where there are steep surface gradients because infinitesimal lateral displacements reduce clamping stress most efficiently there. Unclamping enables accelerating slip to spread across the surface, but the fault soon jams up because its uneven, anisotropic shape begins to juxtapose new high-relief sticking points. These contacts would ultimately need to be sheared off or strongly deformed before another similar earthquake could occur. Our model shows that an important role is played by fault-wall geometry, though we do not include effects of varying fluid pressure or exotic rheologies on the fault surfaces. We extrapolate our results to large fault systems using observed self-similarity properties, and suggest that larger ruptures might begin and end in a similar way, though the scale of geometrical variation in fault shape that can arrest a rupture necessarily scales with magnitude. In other words, fault segmentation may be a magnitude dependent phenomenon and could vary with each subsequent rupture.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1999

Ventifacts at the Pathfinder landing site

About half of the rocks at the Mars Pathfinder Ares Vallis landing site appear to be ventifacts, rocks abraded by windborne particles. Comparable resolution images taken by the Imager for Mars Pathfinder (IMP) camera and the Viking landers show that ventifacts are more abundant at the Pathfinder site. The ventifacts occur in several forms, including rocks with faceted edges, finger‐like projections, elongated pits, flutes, grooves, and possible rills. The trends of elongated pits, flutes, grooves, and rills cluster at ∼280–330° clockwise from north and generally dip 10–30° away from their trend direction. These orientations are indicative of southeast to northwest winds and differ from the trend of wind tails at the landing site, the direction of local wind streaks, and predictions of the Global Circulation Model, all of which indicate northeast to southwest winds. The disparity between these data sets strongly suggests that local circulation patterns have changed since the abrasion of the ventifacted rocks. The greater number of ventifacts at the Pathfinder site compared to either of the Viking sites is most easily explained as being due to a larger supply of abrading particles, composed of either sand‐sized grains or indurated dust aggregates, and higher surface roughness, which should increase the momentum of saltating grains. The Pathfinder ventifacts may have formed shortly after the deposition of outflow channel sediments nearly 2 Gry ago, when a large local supply of abrading particles should have been abundant and atmospheric conditions may have been more conducive to rock abrasion from saltating grains. Based on how ventifacts form on Earth, the several ventifact forms seen at the Pathfinder site and their presence on some rocks but not on others are probably due to local airflow conditions, original rock shape, exposure duration, rock movement, and to a lesser extent, rock lithology. The abundance of ventifacts at the Pathfinder site, together with other evidence of weathering, indicates that unaltered rock surfaces are rare on Mars.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2014

Latest Quaternary paleoseismology and evidence of distributed dextral shear along the Mohawk Valley fault zone, northern Walker Lane, California

The dextral-slip Mohawk Valley fault zone (MVFZ) strikes northwestward along the eastern margin of the Sierra Nevada in the northern Walker Lane. Geodetic block modeling indicates that the MVFZ may accommodate ~3 mm/yr of regional dextral strain, implying that it is the highest slip-rate strike-slip fault in the region; however, only limited geologic data are available to constrain the system’s slip rate and earthquake history. We mapped the MVFZ using airborne lidar data and field observations and identified a site near Sulphur Creek for paleoseismic investigation. At this site, oblique dextral-normal faulting on the steep valley margin has created a closed depression that floods annually during spring snowmelt to form an ephemeral pond. We excavated three fault-perpendicular trenches at the site and exposed pond sediment that interfingers with multiple colluvial packages eroded from the scarp that bounds the eastern side of the pond. We documented evidence for four surface-rupturing earthquakes on this strand of the MVFZ. OxCal modeling of radiocarbon and luminescence ages indicates that these earthquakes occurred at 14.0 ka, 12.8 ka, 5.7 ka, and 1.9 ka. The mean ~4 kyr recurrence interval is inconsistent with slip rates of ~3 mm/yr; these rates imply surface ruptures of more than 10 m per event, which is geologically implausible for the subdued geomorphic expression and 60 km length of the MVFZ. We propose that unidentified structures not yet incorporated into geodetic models may accommodate significant dextral shear across the northern Walker Lane, highlighting the role of distributed deformation in this region.

California↗

USGS2015

Crustal deformation in the New Madrid seismic zone and the role of postseismic processes

Global Navigation Satellite System data across the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) in the central United States over the period from 2000 through 2014 are analyzed and modeled with several deformation mechanisms including the following: (1) creep on subsurface dislocations, (2) postseismic frictional afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation from the 1811–1812 and 1450 earthquakes in the NMSZ, and (3) regional strain. In agreement with previous studies, a dislocation creeping at about 4 mm/yr between 12 and 20 km depth along the downdip extension of the Reelfoot fault reproduces the observations well. We find that a dynamic model of postseismic frictional afterslip from the 1450 and February 1812 Reelfoot fault events can explain this creep. Kinematic and dynamic models involving the Cottonwood Grove fault provide minimal predictive power. This is likely due to the smaller size of the December 1811 event on the Cottonwood Grove fault and a distribution of stations better suited to constrain localized strain across the Reelfoot fault. Regional compressive strain across the NMSZ is found to be less than 3 × 10 −9 /yr. If much of the present-day surface deformation results from afterslip, it is likely that many of the earthquakes we see today in the NMSZ are aftershocks from the 1811–1812 New Madrid earthquakes. Despite this conclusion, our results are consistent with observations and models of intraplate earthquake clustering. Given this and the recent paleoseismic history of the region, we suggest that seismic hazard is likely to remain significant.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗