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At least 253 records · Page 14Linked to original sources

Landscape level effects of invasive plants and animals on water infiltration through Hawaiian tropical forests

Watershed degradation due to invasion threatens downstream water flows and associated ecosystem services. While this topic has been studied across landscapes that have undergone invasive-driven state changes (e.g., native forest to invaded grassland), it is less well understood in ecosystems experiencing within-system invasion (e.g. native forest to invaded forest). To address this subject, we conducted an integrated ecological and ecohydrological study in tropical forests impacted by invasive plants and animals. We measured soil infiltration capacity in multiple fenced (i.e., ungulate-free)/unfenced and native/invaded forest site pairs along moisture and substrate age gradients across Hawaii to explore the effects of invasion on hydrological processes within tropical forests. We also characterized forest composition, structure and soil characteristics at these sites to assess the direct and vegetation-mediated impacts of invasive species on infiltration capacity. Our models show that invasive ungulates negatively affect soil infiltration capacity consistently across the wide moisture and substrate age gradients considered. Additionally, several soil characteristics known to be affected by invasive ungulates were associated with local infiltration rates, indicating that the long-term secondary effects of high ungulate densities in tropical forests may be stronger than effects observed in this study. The effect of invasive plants on infiltration was complex and likely to depend on their physiognomy within existing forest community structure. These results provide clear evidence for managers that invasive ungulate control efforts can improve ecohydrological function of mesic and wet forest systems critical to protecting downstream and nearshore resources and maintaining groundwater recharge.

Hawaii↗

Sediment accretion in tidal freshwater forests and oligohaline marshes of the Waccamaw and Savannah Rivers, USA

Sediment accretion was measured at four sites in varying stages of forest-to-marsh succession along a fresh-to-oligohaline gradient on the Waccamaw River and its tributary Turkey Creek (Coastal Plain watersheds, South Carolina) and the Savannah River (Piedmont watershed, South Carolina and Georgia). Sites included tidal freshwater forests, moderately salt-impacted forests at the freshwater–oligohaline transition, highly salt-impacted forests, and oligohaline marshes. Sediment accretion was measured by use of feldspar marker pads for 2.5 year; accessory information on wetland inundation, canopy litterfall, herbaceous production, and soil characteristics were also collected. Sediment accretion ranged from 4.5 mm year −1 at moderately salt-impacted forest on the Savannah River to 19.1 mm year −1 at its relict, highly salt-impacted forest downstream. Oligohaline marsh sediment accretion was 1.5–2.5 times greater than in tidal freshwater forests. Overall, there was no significant difference in accretion rate between rivers with contrasting sediment loads. Accretion was significantly higher in hollows than on hummocks in tidal freshwater forests. Organic sediment accretion was similar to autochthonous litter production at all sites, but inorganic sediment constituted the majority of accretion at both marshes and the Savannah River highly salt-impacted forest. A strong correlation between inorganic sediment accumulation and autochthonous litter production indicated a positive feedback between herbaceous plant production and allochthonous sediment deposition. The similarity in rates of sediment accretion and sea level rise in tidal freshwater forests indicates that these habitats may become permanently inundated if the rate of sea level rise increases.

Georgia;South Carolina↗

A 7 year record of above-ground net primary production in a southeastern Mexican mangrove forest

Spatial and temporal variations in net above-ground primary production (NPP) and litter turnover rate were studied, from 1987 to 1993, in a mangrove forest bordering Laguna de Terminos, Mexico. NPP, the sum of total litter fall and wood production, was measured over the entire study period in three zones in a basin forest: zone I, where Rhizophora mangle (red mangrove) occurs but Avicennia germinans (black mangrove) is the dominant species; zone II, a scrub forest of A. germinans ; zone III, where larger A. germinans trees occur. In 1991, a fringe zone dominated by A. germinans and R. mangle was added to the study. Three distinctive climatic seasons occur in the region: rainy, dry, and cold front (locally named ‘nortes’). Average total litter fall in the fringe zone (793 g m −2 year −1 ) was significantly higher than in the basin forest (496, 307, and 410 g m −2 year −1 for basin zones I, II, and III, respectively). All zones showed significant differences among seasons with the norte season having significantly lower litter fall. Litter turnover rates were about 7 months in zones I and II and 10 months in zone III, reflecting the low tidal range that occurs in the basin forest. Low litter turnover rates in the basin forest were reflected in a high organic matter standing crop. Annual average stem growth was significantly higher in zones I and III (1.27 and 1.36 kg per tree year −1 , respectively) than in zone II (0.62 kg per tree year −1 ). Above-ground NPP rates in the basin forest (399–695 g m −2 year −1 ) were lower than in fringe and riverine forests, reflecting patterns of litter fall and wood production. There was no seasonal variation in soil salinity but the basin forest had significantly higher soil salinity than the fringe forest. Spatially, mean soil salinity was inversely related to litter fall. Long-term patterns in soil salinity, precipitation and air temperature explained 74% of the inter-annual litter fall variability. Over the 7 year study, productivity in zone II was more variable than in zones I and III, and productivity (litter fall and wood growth) were less variable than litter standing crop and turnover.

Campeche↗

Where forest may not return in the western United States

Droughts that are hotter, more frequent, and last longer; pest outbreaks that are more extensive and more common; and fires that are more frequent, more extensive, and perhaps more severe have raised concern that forests in the western United States may not return once disturbed by one or more of these agents. Numerous field-based studies have been undertaken to better understand forest response to these changing disturbance regimes. Meta-analyses of these studies provide broad guidelines on the biotic and abiotic factors that hinder forest recovery, but study-to-study differences in methods and objectives do not support estimation of the total extent of potentially impaired forest succession. In this research, we provide an estimate of the area of potentially impaired forest succession. The estimate was derived from modeling of an 18-year land cover and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series supported by an extensive ancillary dataset. We estimate an upper bound of approximately 3470 km 2 of disturbed forest that may not return or reattain prior composition and structure. Based on the data used, fire appears to be the main disturbance agent of impaired forest succession, although climatic factors cannot be discounted. The numerous field studies routinely cite distal seed sources as a factor that hinders forest recovery, and we estimate that 20 % of the upper bound estimate has no forest cover within a 4.4-ha neighborhood. Our upper bound estimate is about 0.5 % of the 2001 mapped extent of western United States forests. The estimate is cognizant of measurement and modeling uncertainties (i.e., upper bound) and uncertainties related to successional rates and trajectories (i.e., potential).

Ecological Indicators↗

Simulating ungulate herbivory across forest landscapes: A browsing extension for LANDIS-II

Browsing ungulates alter forest productivity and vegetation succession through selective foraging on species that often dominate early succession. However, the long-term and large-scale effects of browsing on forest succession are not possible to project without the use of simulation models. To explore the effects of ungulates on succession in a spatially explicit manner, we developed a Browse Extension that simulates the effects of browsing ungulates on the growth and survival of plant species cohorts within the LANDIS-II spatially dynamic forest landscape simulation model framework. We demonstrate the capabilities of the new extension and explore the spatial effects of ungulates on forest composition and dynamics using two case studies. The first case study examined the long-term effects of persistently high white-tailed deer browsing rates in the northern hardwood forests of the Allegheny National Forest, USA. In the second case study, we incorporated a dynamic ungulate population model to simulate interactions between the moose population and boreal forest landscape of Isle Royale National Park, USA. In both model applications, browsing reduced total aboveground live biomass and caused shifts in forest composition. Simulations that included effects of browsing resulted in successional patterns that were more similar to those observed in the study regions compared to simulations that did not incorporate browsing effects. Further, model estimates of moose population density and available forage biomass were similar to previously published field estimates at Isle Royale and in other moose-boreal forest systems. Our simulations suggest that neglecting effects of browsing when modeling forest succession in ecosystems known to be influenced by ungulates may result in flawed predictions of aboveground biomass and tree species composition.

Ecological Modelling↗

Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.

Climatic Change↗

Prospects for quantifying structure, floristic composition and species richness of tropical forests

Airborne spectral and light detection and ranging (lidar) sensors have been used to quantify biophysical characteristics of tropical forests. Lidar sensors have provided high-resolution data on forest height, canopy topography, volume, and gap size; and provided estimates on number of strata in a forest, successional status of forests, and above-ground biomass. Spectral sensors have provided data on vegetation types, foliar biochemistry content of forest canopies, tree and canopy phenology, and spectral signatures for selected tree species. A number of advances are theoretically possible with individual and combined spectral and lidar sensors for the study of forest structure, floristic composition and species richness. Delineating individual canopies of over-storey trees with small footprint lidar and discrimination of tree architectural types with waveform distributions is possible and would provide scientists with a new method to study tropical forest structure. Combined spectral and lidar data can be used to identify selected tree species and identify the successional status of tropical forest fragments in order to rank forest patches by levels of species richness. It should be possible in the near future to quantify selected patterns of tropical forests at a higher resolution than can currently be undertaken in the field or from space.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

Global Change Biology↗

Rapid colonization of a Hawaiian restoration forest by a diverse avian community

Deforestation of tropical forests has led to widespread loss and extirpation of forest bird species around the world, including the Hawaiian Islands which have experienced a dramatic loss of forests over the last 200–800 years. Given the important role birds play in forest ecosystem functions via seed dispersal and pollination, a bird community's response to forest restoration is an important measure of the success of such conservation actions. We evaluated the bird response to reforestation at an important bird sanctuary, Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai′i Island, using 26 years of bird count data. We show that most species from within the diverse avian community increased significantly, but species colonized the restoration forest at different rates. Distance from intact forest and time since restoration were both important predictors of colonization rate, interacting such that for most species it took more time to colonize areas farther from the intact forest. In addition, both forest cover and understory diversity helped to explain bird densities, but the effect varied among species, suggesting that different habitat requirements may help drive variation in colonization rates. This article provides the first detailed evaluation of how a diverse community of birds has responded to one of the largest, ongoing reforestation projects in Hawai′i.

Hawai′i↗

New England and northern New York forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: A report from the New England Climate Change Response Framework project

Forest ecosystems will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems across the New England region (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, northern New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont) under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and described a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple vegetation impact models, which provided a range of potential vegetative responses to climate. Finally, we brought these results before a multidisciplinary panel of scientists and natural resource professionals familiar with the forests of this region to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process. Observed trends in climate over the historical record from 1901 through 2011 show that the mean annual temperature has increased across the region by 2.4 °F, with even greater warming during winter. Precipitation patterns also changed during this time, with a slight trend toward greater annual precipitation and a substantial increase in extreme precipitation events. Projected climate trends using downscaled global climate model data indicate a potential increase in mean annual temperature of 3 to 8 °F for the assessment area by 2100. Projections for precipitation indicate an increase in fall and winter precipitation, and spring and summer precipitation projections vary by scenario. We identified potential impacts on forests by incorporating these future climate projections into three forest impact models (DISTRIB, LINKAGES, and LANDIS PRO). Model projections suggest that many northern and boreal species, including balsam fir, red spruce, and black spruce, may fare worse under future conditions, but other species may benefit from projected changes in climate. Published literature on climate impacts related to wildfire, invasive species, and forest pests and diseases also contributed to the overall determination of climate change vulnerability. We assessed vulnerability for eight forest communities in the assessment area. The assessment was conducted through a formal elicitation process with 20 scientists and resource managers from across the area, who considered vulnerability in terms of the potential impacts and the adaptive capacity for an individual community. Montane spruce-fir, low-elevation spruce-fir, and lowland mixed conifer forests were determined to be the most vulnerable communities. Central hardwoods, transition hardwoods, and pitch pine-scrub oak forests were perceived as having lower vulnerability to projected changes in climate. These projected changes in climate and the associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable timber species, forest-dependent animals and plants, recreation, and long-term natural resource planning.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

Terrestrial forest management plan for Palmyra Atoll

This 'Terrestrial Forest Management Plan for Palmyra Atoll' was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for The Nature Conservancy (TNC) Palmyra Program to refine and expand goals and objectives developed through the Conservation Action Plan process. It is one in a series of adaptive management plans designed to achieve TNC's mission toward the protection and enhancement of native wildlife and habitat. The 'Terrestrial Forest Management Plan for Palmyra Atoll' focuses on ecosystem integrity and specifically identifies and addresses issues related to assessing the status and distribution of resources, as well as the pressures acting upon them, most specifically nonnative and potentially invasive species. The plan, which presents strategies for increasing ecosystem integrity, provides a framework to implement and track the progress of conservation and restoration goals related to terrestrial resources on Palmyra Atoll. The report in its present form is intended to be an overview of what is known about historical and current forest resources; it is not an exhaustive review of all available literature relevant to forest management but an attempt to assemble as much information specific to Palmyra Atoll as possible. Palmyra Atoll is one of the Northern Line Islands in the Pacific Ocean southwest of the Hawai`ian Islands. It consists of many heavily vegetated islets arranged in a horseshoe pattern around four lagoons and surrounded by a coral reef. The terrestrial ecosystem consists of three primary native vegetation types: Pisonia grandis forest, coastal strand forest, and grassland. Among these vegetation types, the health and extent of Pisonia grandis forest is of particular concern. Overall, the three vegetation types support 25 native plant species (two of which may be extirpated), 14 species of sea birds, six shore birds, at least one native reptile, at least seven native insects, and six native land crabs. Green and hawksbill turtles forage at Palmyra Atoll, and though rarely documented, beach nesting could be affected by terrestrial management actions. There are various nonnative or invasive species throughout the terrestrial ecosystem. The most notable examples of terrestrial invasive species include coconut palms (Cocos nucifera) and black rats (Rattus rattus). Although it is unclear whether they are nonnative, coconut palms are currently the most dominant plant across Palmyra Atoll. They compete with native plant species for space and resources and are potentially detrimental to sea birds dependent on native vegetation for roosting and nesting habitat. This competition in turn impacts nutrient resource availability, thereby reshaping energy flow in the ecosystem. Black rats are known to prey on ground-nesting sea birds and are likely responsible for the lack of burrowing sea bird reproduction at Palmyra Atoll. In addition, they may be facilitating the invasion of other nonnative species and negatively impacting other native fauna. Although the extent and impacts of these and other nonnative and (or) invasive species are not fully understood, the extent and impacts are clearly a threat to the native species and one of the most urgent threats to the overall ecosystem integrity of Palmyra Atoll. This 'Terrestrial Forest Management Plan for Palmyra Atoll' addresses issues related to invasive species and other problems. Priority goals are established as are associated objectives and strategies. The overarching goal is to perpetuate and where possible restore terrestrial ecosystem integrity through the following techniques: 1. Habitat management: Maintain and enhance habitat to the extent possible to sustain thriving Pisonia grandis forest, coastal strand forest, endemic grassland, self-sustaining populations of sea birds, shore birds, coconut crabs, native lizards, and native insects. 2. Monitoring and assessment: Acquire information on distribution and abundance as needed for conservation of each resour

Open-File Report↗

Kelp forest monitoring at Naval Base Ventura County, San Nicolas Island, California: Fall 2018 and Spring 2019, fifth annual report

Introduction Kelp forests and rocky reefs are among the most recognized marine ecosystems and provide the primary habitat for several species of fishes, invertebrates, and algal assemblages (Stephens and others, 2006). In addition, kelp forests have been shown to be important carbon dioxide sinks (Wilmers and others, 2012) and are an important source of nearshore marine primary production (Duggins and others, 1989). These highly dynamic ecosystems are extremely variable, and both top-down and bottom-up ecological controls drive this rich trophic environment. Giant kelp ( Macrocystis pyrifera ) forests and the species that inhabit these ecosystems are influenced by several environmental conditions, such as wave exposure, water temperature, water clarity, bottom depth and composition, species composition, and the density of kelp and other algal assemblages (Schiel and Foster, 2015). However, in addition to “normal” variability, kelp forests can undergo extreme regime shifts from kelp canopy forested areas to barrens characterized by high densities of urchins and encrusting coralline algae (Harrold and Reed, 1985). San Nicolas Island (SNI), outermost of the California Channel Islands, is home to a diverse group of terrestrial and marine organisms and includes kelp bed and rocky reef habitats ( fig. 1 ). The SNI kelp forests not only provide food and shelter for fishes and invertebrates within the habitat, but also they support higher trophic level consumers such as marine birds and several marine mammal species including the southern sea otter ( Enhydra lutris nereis) , a major predator on sea urchins and other marine invertebrates. Owing to concern about the vulnerability of the California population, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) translocated 140 southern sea otters from the central California coast to SNI between 1987 and 1990. Although only approximately 14 translocated otters are thought to have remained at SNI (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2012), their population at the island has increased and is currently greater than 120 individuals (Hatfield and others, 2019). Sea otters are a natural part of the kelp forest ecosystem, but their presence has implications for community dynamics as they repopulate a region from which they were extirpated in the 19th century. At SNI, sea otters have been concentrated mostly around the west end of the island, with some use of the south side and very little, but expanding, use of the northeast side. An ecosystem shift from urchin dominated to kelp dominated, that occurred at a site at the west end of the island in the early 2000s, though initiated by sea urchin disease, was likely facilitated to some degree by sea otter foraging (Kenner and Tinker, 2018). These ecosystems also are the target of many fisheries, including urchin and lobster. Urchin fisheries, which target the larger red sea urchin, may release the smaller but more mobile purple sea urchin from competitive control (Dayton and others, 1998). Lobster fisheries may release purple sea urchins from predatory control (Lafferty, 2004). Owing to the distance from the mainland, however, SNI kelp forests and reefs have been somewhat protected from the degree of harvest and other anthropogenic impacts experienced by the southern California mainland. Invasive species are another issue, and there are a few invasive subtidal macroalgae of concern in southern California waters. Although the brown alga Sargassum muticum has been established at the island for decades, S. horneri has only recently been seen at SNI and, so far, the invasive kelp Undaria pinnatifida and the green alga Caulerpa taxifolia have not been observed there. Sargassum horneri , in particular, has demonstrated a capability to outcompete native kelps at some of the other Channel Islands but it is unclear what indirect effects it may have on community structure (Marks and others, 2015). Because the surrounding kelp forests fall within the management boundary of the SNI Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan (INRMP; U.S. Navy, 2015), USGS works with the Navy to provide surveys of this ecologically important ecosystem that inform natural resource managers of trends in the population abundance of particular species. In addition, long-term surveys allow for an understanding of potential changes in species diversity and community composition as a result of trophic or other interactions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) implemented a kelp forest monitoring program for the U.S. Navy at San Nicolas Island in 2014, building on sites and methods established by USFWS scientists in 1980 ( appendix 1 ). This report focuses on data collected during sampling expeditions to these sites in fall 2018 (October 2–5) and spring 2019 (April 3–6). Together they will be herein referred to as year 5 because, although the trips were made in different calendar years, they were approximately 6 months apart and were conducted under the fifth year of this contract. The previous sampling year (fall 2017 and spring 2018) is referred to as year 4. The year 5 data are compared with data collected during eight trips from fall 2014 through spring 2018. Differences in counts between these expeditions can result from seasonal factors, stochastic variation, or sampling error, but temporal comparison can reveal population trends. Where appropriate, long-term data collected during the 33 years prior to the implementation of these slightly revised protocols will be presented in order to lend some context to the observations reported here. Genus and species names used in this report are those currently recognized as valid in the Integrated Taxonomic Information System (ITIS.gov). Upon first use, the name recognized as valid by the World Register of Marine Species (WoRMS; marinespecies.org) is shown in brackets if different. The exception is Sargassum horneri which does not show up in any discernable form in ITIS.gov.

California↗

Rainforest birds: A land manager's guide to breeding bird habitat in young conifer forests in the Pacific Northwest

This document (hereafter Guide) has been prepared to assist land managers interested in conducting conservation and management activities to benefit breeding birds associated with young conifer forests in the Pacific Northwest. Audiences targeted for use of the Guide include land trusts, watershed councils, non-commercial private land owners, forest products companies, land-managing conservation organizations, government agencies, tribes, and First Nations. We hope the Guide will be a useful and valuable tool to support any of the variety of reasons to manage for bird habitat in young conifer forests (for example, regulatory, biodiversity, bird conservation, and forest certification standards). Information provided in the Guide is intended to support both the development of conservation or management plans and the implementation of on-the-ground management activities that have the potential to benefit breeding bird populations. The degree to which a land manager is willing or able to manage for bird habitat is a decision based on many factors which are beyond the scope of the Guide. We assume users of the Guide already have an interest in managing for bird habitat as one of several objectives that land managers must typically balance. However, it is not our purpose in the Guide to discuss integration of bird habitat management with other management objectives. Our objective is simply to provide those interested in bird conservation with information and recommendations on: the habitat conditions and features needed by breeding bird species, and how breeding bird species respond to particular management activities. Much of the information on breeding bird habitat is presented in tabular format in the appendices. Because the latitudinal and elevational coverage of the Guide is extensive, there can be considerable variation in the habitat types and conditions with which bird species are associated. Thus, it is important to recognize that the habitat relationships of a species may vary throughout the Pacific Northwest. Information presented in the appendices that categorizes bird-habitat relationships should not be regarded as absolute, but should be used as a tool to help prioritize conservation efforts toward species that have a significant degree of association with habitat parameters, such as forest type or successional stage. An underlying premise of the Guide is that forest management has a direct and significant influence on bird populations. Consequently, manipulation of forest conditions as part of forest management can be designed and implemented to achieve bird conservation objectives (Busing and Garman, 2002; Lehmkuhl and others, 2002). It is not our intent to describe all the potential forest management activities that could be conducted to achieve the desired habitat conditions for birds. Those need to be determined locally by assessing the most ecologically appropriate management at each site. However, to assist land managers, the Guide offers some basic forest management activities that are widely accepted for achieving habitat conditions and features which benefit breeding birds.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Evaluating k-nearest neighbor (kNN) imputation models for species-level aboveground forest biomass mapping in northeast China

Quantifying spatially explicit or pixel-level aboveground forest biomass (AFB) across large regions is critical for measuring forest carbon sequestration capacity, assessing forest carbon balance, and revealing changes in the structure and function of forest ecosystems. When AFB is measured at the species level using widely available remote sensing data, regional changes in forest composition can readily be monitored. In this study, wall-to-wall maps of species-level AFB were generated for forests in Northeast China by integrating forest inventory data with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images and environmental variables through applying the optimal k -nearest neighbor ( k NN) imputation model. By comparing the prediction accuracy of 630 k NN models, we found that the models with random forest (RF) as the distance metric showed the highest accuracy. Compared to the use of single-month MODIS data for September, there was no appreciable improvement for the estimation accuracy of species-level AFB by using multi-month MODIS data. When k > 7, the accuracy improvement of the RF-based k NN models using the single MODIS predictors for September was essentially negligible. Therefore, the k NN model using the RF distance metric, single-month (September) MODIS predictors and k = 7 was the optimal model to impute the species-level AFB for entire Northeast China. Our imputation results showed that average AFB of all species over Northeast China was 101.98 Mg/ha around 2000. Among 17 widespread species, larch was most dominant, with the largest AFB (20.88 Mg/ha), followed by white birch (13.84 Mg/ha). Amur corktree and willow had low AFB (0.91 and 0.96 Mg/ha, respectively). Environmental variables (e.g., climate and topography) had strong relationships with species-level AFB. By integrating forest inventory data and remote sensing data with complete spatial coverage using the optimal k NN model, we successfully mapped the AFB distribution of the 17 tree species over Northeast China. We also evaluated the accuracy of AFB at different spatial scales. The AFB estimation accuracy significantly improved from stand level up to the ecotype level, indicating that the AFB maps generated from this study are more suitable to apply to forest ecosystem models (e.g., LINKAGES) which require species-level attributes at the ecotype scale.

Remote Sensing↗

Modeling forest snow using relative canopy structure metrics

Snow and watershed models typically do not account for forest structure and shading; therefore, they display substantial uncertainty when attempting to account for forest change or when comparing hydrological response between forests with varying characteristics. This study collected snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements in a snow-dominated forest in Colorado, the United States, with variable canopy structure. The SWE measurements were integrated with 1 m Lidar derived canopy structure metrics and incoming solar radiation to create empirical SWE offset equations for four canopy structure groupings (forest gaps, south-facing forest edges, north-facing forest edges, and the interior forest) that varied in size compared to an open area. These simple equations indirectly integrate terrain shading and canopy shading and were able to estimate 40 to 70% of SWE variation in a heterogenous forested environment. The equations were then applied to a snow melt model with a 100 m grid size by applying the area-weighted average of SWE offsets from the four canopy structure groupings in each model cell. This tiled model configuration allowed for the model to better represent the subgrid heterogeneity of a forest environment that can be seen through an ensemble or range of potential outputs rather than a singular estimate.

Water↗

National Land Cover Database 2019: A comprehensive strategy for creating the 1986-2019 forest disturbance product

The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2016 products show that, between 2001 and 2016, nearly half of the land cover change in the conterminous United States (CONUS) involved forested areas. To ensure the quality of NLCD land cover and land cover change products, it is important to accurately detect the location and time of forest disturbance. We designed a comprehensive strategy to integrate a continuous time series forest change detection method and a discrete 2-date forest change detection method to produce the NLCD 1986–2019 forest disturbance product, which shows the most recent forest disturbance date between the years 1986 and 2019 for every 2- to 3-year interval. This method, the Time-Series method Using Normalized Spectral Distance (NSD) index (TSUN), uses NSD to detect multi-date forest land cover changes and was shown to be easily extended to a new date even when new images were processed in a different way than previous date images. The discrete 2-date method uses the Multi-Index Integrated Change Analysis (MIICA) method to detect changes between 2-date images. A method based on confidence and object grouping was designed to combine the multiple MIICA outputs to improve change detection accuracy. Finally, an aggregation scheme was implemented to combine the TSUN output, the integrated MIICA results, and ancillary data to produce the NLCD 2019 forest disturbance 1986–2019 product. The initial accuracy assessments from 1,600 samples over 4 Landsat path/rows show that the producer’s and user’s accuracies of the 2001–2019 forest disturbance map are 76% and 74%, respectively. The final CONUS-wide forest disturbance product is provided at https://www.mrlc.gov/nlcd-2019-science-research-products .

conterminous United States↗

Limits to ponderosa pine regeneration following large high-severity forest fires in the United States Southwest

High-severity fires in dry conifer forests of the United States Southwest have created large (>1000 ha) treeless areas that are unprecedented in the regional historical record. These fires have reset extensive portions of Southwestern ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Lawson & C. Lawson var. scopulorum Engelm.) forest landscapes. At least two recovery options following high-severity fire are emerging. One option is for post-fire successional pathways to move toward a return to the pre-fire forest type. Alternatively, an area may transition to persistent non-forested ecosystems. We studied regeneration patterns of ponderosa pine following eight fires in Arizona and New Mexico, USA, that burned in dry conifer forests dominated by ponderosa pine during a recent 18-year regional drought period, 1996 to 2013. Our a priori hypotheses were: 1) the most xeric areas within these severely burned dry conifer forests are least likely to regenerate to the pre-fire forest type due to persistent post-fire moisture stress; and 2) areas farther away from conifer seed sources have a lower likelihood of regeneration, even if these areas are climatically favorable for post-fire ponderosa pine establishment. We evaluated our hypotheses using empirical data and generalized linear mixed-effects models. We found that low-elevation, xeric sites are more limiting to conifer regeneration than higher-elevation mesic sites. Areas >150 m from a seed source are much less likely to have ponderosa pine regeneration. Spatial interpolations of modeled post-fire regeneration of ponderosa pine across the study landscapes indicate expansive areas with low likelihood of pine regeneration following high-severity fire. We discuss multiple post-fire successional pathways following high-severity fire, including potentially stable transitions to non-forest vegetation types that may represent long-term type conversions. These findings regarding landscape changes in Southwest forests in response to fires and post-fire regeneration patterns during early-stage climate warming contribute to the development of better-informed ecosystem management strategies for forest adaptation or mitigation under projected hotter droughts in this region.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

Forest ecosystems: Vegetation, disturbance, and economics

Forests cover about 47% of the Northwest (NW–Washington, Oregon, and Idaho) (Smith et al. 2009, fig. 5.1, table 5.1). The impacts of current and future climate change on NW forest ecosystems are a product of the sensitivities of ecosystem processes to climate and the degree to which humans depend on and interact with those systems. Forest ecosystem structure and function, particularly in relatively unmanaged forests where timber harvest and other land use have smaller effects, is sensitive to climate change because climate has a strong influence on ecosystem processes. Climate can affect forest structure directly through its control of plan physiology and life history (establishment, individual growth, productivity, and morality) or indirectly through its control of disturbance (fire, insects, disease). As climate changes, many forest processes will be affected, altering ecosystem services such as timber production and recreation. These changes have socioeconomic implications (e.g. for timber economies) and will require changes to current management of forests. Climate and management will interact to determine the forests of the future, and the scientific basis for adaptation to climate change in forests thus depends significantly on how forests will be affected.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗