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At least 253 records · Page 14Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Infrared heater system for warming tropical forest understory plants and soils

The response of tropical forests to global warming is one of the largest uncertainties in predicting the future carbon balance of Earth. To determine the likely effects of elevated temperatures on tropical forest understory plants and soils, as well as other ecosystems, an infrared (IR) heater system was developed to provide in situ warming for the Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. Three replicate heated 4-m- diameter plots were warmed to maintain a 4°C increase in understory vegetation compared to three unheated control plots, as sensed by IR thermometers. The equipment was larger than any used previously and was subjected to challenges different from those of many temperate ecosystem warming systems, including frequent power surges and outages, high humidity, heavy rains, hurricanes, saturated clayey soils, and steep slopes. The system was able to maintain the target 4.0°C increase in hourly average vegetation temperatures to within ± 0.1°C. The vegetation was heterogeneous and on a 21° slope, which decreased uniformity of the warming treatment on the plots; yet, the green leaves were fairly uniformly warmed, and there was little difference among 0–10 cm depth soil temperatures at the plot centers, edges, and midway between. Soil temperatures at the 40–50 cm depth increased about 3°C compared to the controls after a month of warming. As expected, the soil in the heated plots dried faster than that of the control plots, but the average soil moisture remained adequate for the plants. The TRACE heating system produced an adequately uniform warming precisely controlled down to at least 50-cm soil depth, thereby creating a treatment that allows for assessing mechanistic responses of tropical plants and soil to warming, with applicability to other ecosystems. No physical obstacles to scaling the approach to taller vegetation (i.e., trees) and larger plots were observed.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2018

The effect of isolation, fragmentation, and population bottlenecks on song structure of a Hawaiian honeycreeper

Little is known about how important social behaviors such as song vary within and among populations for any of the endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Habitat loss and non‐native diseases (e.g., avian malaria) have resulted in isolation and fragmentation of Hawaiian honeycreepers within primarily high elevation forests. In this study, we examined how isolation of Hawai'i ‘amakihi ( Chlorodrepanis virens ) populations within a fragmented landscape influences acoustic variability in song. In the last decade, small, isolated populations of disease tolerant ‘amakihi have been found within low elevation forests, allowing us to record ‘amakihi songs across a large elevational gradient (10–1800 m) that parallels disease susceptibility on Hawai'i island. To understand underlying differences among populations, we examined the role of geographic distance, elevation, and habitat structure on acoustic characteristics of ‘amakihi songs. We found that the acoustic characteristics of ‘amakihi songs and song‐type repertoires varied most strongly across an elevational gradient. Differences in ‘amakihi song types were primarily driven by less complex songs (e.g., fewer frequency changes, shorter songs) of individuals recorded at low elevation sites compared to mid and high elevation populations. The reduced complexity of ‘amakihi songs at low elevation sites is most likely shaped by the effects of habitat fragmentation and a disease‐driven population bottleneck associated with avian malaria, and maintained through isolation, localized song learning and sharing, and cultural drift. These results highlight how a non‐native disease through its influence on population demographics may have also indirectly played a role in shaping the acoustic characteristics of a species.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2018

Size‐assortative choice and mate availability influences hybridization between red wolves (Canis rufus) and coyotes (Canis latrans)

Anthropogenic hybridization of historically isolated taxa has become a primary conservation challenge for many imperiled species. Indeed, hybridization between red wolves ( Canis rufus ) and coyotes ( Canis latrans ) poses a significant challenge to red wolf recovery. We considered seven hypotheses to assess factors influencing hybridization between red wolves and coyotes via pair‐bonding between the two species. Because long‐term monogamy and defense of all‐purpose territories are core characteristics of both species, mate choice has long‐term consequences. Therefore, red wolves may choose similar‐sized mates to acquire partners that behave similarly to themselves in the use of space and diet. We observed multiple factors influencing breeding pair formation by red wolves and found that most wolves paired with similar‐sized conspecifics and wolves that formed congeneric pairs with nonwolves (coyotes and hybrids) were mostly female wolves, the smaller of the two sexes. Additionally, we observed that lower red wolf abundance relative to nonwolves and the absence of helpers increased the probability that wolves consorted with nonwolves. However, successful pairings between red wolves and nonwolves were associated with wolves that maintained small home ranges. Behaviors associated with territoriality are energetically demanding and behaviors (e.g., aggressive interactions, foraging, and space use) involved in maintaining territories are influenced by body size. Consequently, we propose the hypothesis that size disparities between consorting red wolves and coyotes influence positive assortative mating and may represent a reproductive barrier between the two species. We offer that it may be possible to maintain wild populations of red wolves in the presence of coyotes if management strategies increase red wolf abundance on the landscape by mitigating key threats, such as human‐caused mortality and hybridization with coyotes. Increasing red wolf abundance would likely restore selection pressures that increase mean body and home‐range sizes of red wolves and decrease hybridization rates via reduced occurrence of congeneric pairs.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2018

Co‐occurrence dynamics of endangered Lower Keys marsh rabbits and free‐ranging domestic cats: Prey responses to an exotic predator removal program

The Lower Keys marsh rabbit ( Sylvilagus palustris hefneri ) is one of many endangered endemic species of the Florida Keys. The main threats are habitat loss and fragmentation from sea‐level rise, development, and habitat succession. Exotic predators such as free‐ranging domestic cats ( Felis catus ) pose an additional threat to these endangered small mammals. Management strategies have focused on habitat restoration and exotic predator control. However, the effectiveness of predator removal and the effects of anthropogenic habitat modifications and restoration have not been evaluated. Between 2013 and 2015, we used camera traps to survey marsh rabbits and free‐ranging cats at 84 sites in the National Key Deer Refuge, Big Pine Key, Florida, USA. We used dynamic occupancy models to determine factors associated with marsh rabbit occurrence, colonization, extinction, and the co‐occurrence of marsh rabbits and cats during a period of predator removal. Rabbit occurrence was positively related to freshwater habitat and patch size, but was negatively related to the number of individual cats detected at each site. Furthermore, marsh rabbit colonization was negatively associated with relative increases in the number of individual cats at each site between survey years. Cat occurrence was negatively associated with increasing distance from human developments. The probability of cat site extinction was positively related to a 2‐year trapping effort, indicating that predator removal reduced the cat population. Dynamic co‐occurrence models suggested that cats and marsh rabbits co‐occur less frequently than expected under random conditions, whereas co‐detections were site and survey‐specific. Rabbit site extinction and colonization were not strongly conditional on cat presence, but corresponded with a negative association. Our results suggest that while rabbits can colonize and persist at sites where cats occur, it is the number of individual cats at a site that more strongly influences rabbit occupancy and colonization. These findings indicate that continued predator management would likely benefit endangered small mammals as they recolonize restored habitats.

Florida↗
USGS2018

Long-term persistence of horse fecal DNA in the environment makes equids particularly good candidates for non-invasive sampling

Fecal DNA collected noninvasively can provide valuable information about genetic and ecological characteristics. This approach has rarely been used for equids, despite the need for conservation of endangered species and management of abundant feral populations. We examined factors affecting the efficacy of using equid fecal samples for conservation genetics. First, we evaluated two fecal collection methods (paper bag vs. ethanol). Then, we investigated how time since deposition and month of collection impacted microsatellite amplification success and genotyping errors. Between May and November 2014, we collected feral horse fecal samples of known age each month in a feral horse Herd Management Area in western Colorado and documented deterioration in the field with photographs. Samples collected and dried in paper bags had significantly higher amplification rates than those collected and stored in ethanol. There was little difference in the number of loci that amplified per sample between fresh fecal piles and those that had been exposed to the environment for up to 2 months (in samples collected in paper bags). After 2 months of exposure, amplification success declined. When comparing fresh (0–2 months) and old (3–6 months) fecal piles, samples from fresh piles had more matching genotypes across samples, better amplification success and less allelic dropout. Samples defecated during the summer and collected within 2 months of deposition had highest number of genotypes matching among samples, and lowest rates of amplification failure and allelic dropout. Due to the digestive system and amount of fecal material produced by equids, as well as their occurrence in arid ecosystems, we suggest that they are particularly good candidates for noninvasive sampling using fecal DNA.

Colorado↗
USGS2018

The genetic network of greater sage-grouse: Range-wide identification of keystone hubs of connectivity

Genetic networks can characterize complex genetic relationships among groups of individuals, which can be used to rank nodes most important to the overall connectivity of the system. Ranking allows scarce resources to be guided toward nodes integral to connectivity. The greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is a species of conservation concern that breeds on spatially discrete leks that must remain connected by genetic exchange for population persistence. We genotyped 5,950 individuals from 1,200 greater sage-grouse leks distributed across the entire species’ geographic range. We found a small-world network composed of 458 nodes connected by 14,481 edges. This network was composed of hubs—that is, nodes facilitating gene flow across the network—and spokes—that is, nodes where connectivity is served by hubs. It is within these hubs that the greatest genetic diversity was housed. Using indices of network centrality, we identified hub nodes of greatest conservation importance. We also identified keystone nodes with elevated centrality despite low local population size. Hub and keystone nodes were found across the entire species’ contiguous range, although nodes with elevated importance to network-wide connectivity were found more central: especially in northeastern, central, and southwestern Wyoming and eastern Idaho. Nodes among which genes are most readily exchanged were mostly located in Montana and northern Wyoming, as well as Utah and eastern Nevada. The loss of hub or keystone nodes could lead to the disintegration of the network into smaller, isolated subnetworks. Protecting both hub nodes and keystone nodes will conserve genetic diversity and should maintain network connections to ensure a resilient and viable population over time. Our analysis shows that network models can be used to model gene flow, offering insights into its pattern and process, with application to prioritizing landscapes for conservation.

Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Utah, Nevada↗
USGS2018

Longevity and population age structure of the arroyo southwestern toad (Anaxyrus californicus) with drought implications

The arroyo southwestern toad is a specialized and federally endangered amphibian endemic to the coastal plains and mountains of central and southern California and northwestern Baja California. It is largely unknown how long these toads live in natural systems, how their population demographics vary across occupied drainages, and how hydrology affects age structure. We used skeletochronology to estimate the ages of adult arroyo toads in seven occupied drainages with varying surface water hydrology in southern California. We processed 179 adult toads with age estimates between 1 and 6 years. Comparisons between skeletochronological ages and known ages of PIT tagged toads showed that skeletochronology likely underestimated toad age by up to 2 years, indicating they may live to 7 or 8 years, but nonetheless major patterns were evident. Arroyo toads showed sexual size dimorphism with adult females reaching a maximum size of 12 mm greater than males. Population age structure varied among the sites. Age structure at sites with seasonally predictable surface water was biased toward younger individuals, which indicated stable recruitment for these populations. Age structures at the ephemeral sites were biased toward older individuals with cohorts roughly corresponding to higher rainfall years. These populations are driven by surface water availability, a stochastic process, and thus more unstable. Based on our estimates of toad ages, climate predictions of extreme and prolonged drought events could mean that the number of consecutive dry years could surpass the maximum life span of toads making them vulnerable to extirpation, especially in ephemeral freshwater systems. Understanding the relationship between population demographics and hydrology is essential for predicting species resilience to projected changes in weather and rainfall patterns. The arroyo toad serves as a model for understanding potential responses to climatic and hydrologic changes in Mediterranean stream systems. We recommend development of adaptive management strategies to address these threats.

California↗
USGS2018

Improving geographically extensive acoustic survey designs for modeling species occurrence with imperfect detection and misidentification

Acoustic recording units (ARUs) enable geographically extensive surveys of sensitive and elusive species. However, a hidden cost of using ARU data for modeling species occupancy is that prohibitive amounts of human verification may be required to correct species identifications made from automated software. Bat acoustic studies exemplify this challenge because large volumes of echolocation calls could be recorded and automatically classified to species. The standard occupancy model requires aggregating verified recordings to construct confirmed detection/non‐detection datasets. The multistep data processing workflow is not necessarily transparent nor consistent among studies. We share a workflow diagramming strategy that could provide coherency among practitioners. A false‐positive occupancy model is explored that accounts for misclassification errors and enables potential reduction in the number of confirmed detections. Simulations informed by real data were used to evaluate how much confirmation effort could be reduced without sacrificing site occupancy and detection error estimator bias and precision. We found even under a 50% reduction in total confirmation effort, estimator properties were reasonable for our assumed survey design, species‐specific parameter values, and desired precision. For transferability, a fully documented r package, OCacoustic, for implementing a false‐positive occupancy model is provided. Practitioners can apply OCacoustic to optimize their own study design (required sample sizes, number of visits, and confirmation scenarios) for properly implementing a false‐positive occupancy model with bat or other wildlife acoustic data. Additionally, our work highlights the importance of clearly defining research objectives and data processing strategies at the outset to align the study design with desired statistical inferences.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2018

Sea‐level rise, habitat loss, and potential extirpation of a salt marsh specialist bird in urbanized landscapes

Sea‐level rise (SLR) impacts on intertidal habitat depend on coastal topology, accretion, and constraints from surrounding development. Such habitat changes might affect species like Belding's savannah sparrows ( Passerculus sandwichensis beldingi ; BSSP), which live in high‐elevation salt marsh in the Southern California Bight. To predict how BSSP habitat might change under various SLR scenarios, we first constructed a suitability model by matching bird observations with elevation. We then mapped current BSSP breeding and foraging habitat at six estuarine sites by applying the elevation‐suitability model to digital elevation models. To estimate changes in digital elevation models under different SLR scenarios, we used a site‐specific, one‐dimensional elevation model (wetland accretion rate model of ecosystem resilience). We then applied our elevation‐suitability model to the projected digital elevation models. The resulting maps suggest that suitable breeding and foraging habitat could decline as increased inundation converts middle‐ and high‐elevation suitable habitat to mudflat and subtidal zones. As a result, the highest SLR scenario predicted that no suitable breeding or foraging habitat would remain at any site by 2100 and 2110. Removing development constraints to facilitate landward migration of high salt marsh, or redistributing dredge spoils to replace submerged habitat, might create future high salt marsh habitat, thereby reducing extirpation risk for BSSP in southern California.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2018

Evidence that climate sets the lower elevation range limit in a high‐elevation endemic salamander

A frequent assumption in ecology is that biotic interactions are more important than abiotic factors in determining lower elevational range limits (i.e., the “warm edge” of a species distribution). However, for species with narrow environmental tolerances, theory suggests the presence of a strong environmental gradient can lead to persistence, even in the presence of competition. The relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors is rarely considered together, although understanding when one exerts a dominant influence on controlling range limits may be crucial to predicting extinction risk under future climate conditions. We sampled multiple transects spanning the elevational range limit of Plethodon shenandoah and site and climate covariates were recorded. A two‐species conditional occupancy model, accommodating heterogeneity in detection probability, was used to relate variation in occupancy with environmental and habitat conditions. Regional climate data were combined with datalogger observations to estimate the cloud base heights and to project future climate change impacts on cloud elevations across the survey area. By simultaneously accounting for species’ interactions and habitat variables, we find that elevation, not competition, is strongly correlated with the lower elevation range boundary, which had been presumed to be restricted mainly as a result of competitive interactions with a congener. Because the lower elevational range limit is sensitive to climate variables, projected climate change across its high‐elevation habitats will directly affect the species’ distribution. Testing assumptions of factors that set species range limits should use models which accommodate detection biases.

Virginia↗
USGS2018

Development of on-shore behavior among polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea: Inherited or learned?

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are experiencing rapid and substantial changes to their environment due to global climate change. Polar bears of the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) have historically spent most of the year on the sea ice. However, recent reports from Alaska indicate that the proportion of the SB subpopulation observed on-shore during late summer and early fall has increased. Our objective was to investigate whether this on-shore behavior has developed through genetic inheritance, asocial learning, or through social learning. From 2010 to 2013, genetic data were collected from SB polar bears in the fall via hair snags and remote biopsy darting on-shore and in the spring from captures and remote biopsy darting on the sea ice. Bears were categorized as either on-shore or off-shore individuals based on their presence on-shore during the fall. Levels of genetic relatedness, first-order relatives, mother–offspring pairs, and father–offspring pairs were determined and compared within and between the two categories: on-shore versus off-shore. Results suggested transmission of on-shore behavior through either genetic inheritance or social learning as there was a higher than expected number of first-order relatives exhibiting on-shore behavior. Genetic relatedness and parentage data analyses were in concurrence with this finding, but further revealed mother–offspring social learning as the primary mechanism responsible for the development of on-shore behavior. Recognizing that on-shore behavior among polar bears was predominantly transmitted via social learning from mothers to their offspring has implications for future management and conservation as sea ice continues to decline.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Lactation and resource limitation affect stress responses, thyroid hormones, immune function, and antioxidant capacity of sea otters (Enhydra lutris)

Lactation is the most energetically demanding stage of reproduction in female mammals. Increased energetic allocation toward current reproduction may result in fitness costs, although the mechanisms underlying these trade‐offs are not well understood. Trade‐offs during lactation may include reduced energetic allocation to cellular maintenance, immune response, and survival and may be influenced by resource limitation. As the smallest marine mammal, sea otters (Enhydra lutris) have the highest mass‐specific metabolic rate necessitating substantial energetic requirements for survival. To provide the increased energy needed for lactation, female sea otters significantly increase foraging effort, especially during late‐lactation. Caloric insufficiency during lactation is reflected in the high numbers of maternal deaths due to End‐Lactation Syndrome in the California subpopulation. We investigated the effects of lactation and resource limitation on maternal stress responses, metabolic regulation, immune function, and antioxidant capacity in two subspecies of wild sea otters (northern: E. l. nereis and southern: E. l. kenyoni) within the California, Washington, and Alaska subpopulations. Lactation and resource limitation were associated with reduced glucocorticoid responses to acute capture stress. Corticosterone release was lower in lactating otters. Cortisol release was lower under resource limitation and suppression during lactation was only evident under resource limitation. Lactation and resource limitation were associated with alterations in thyroid hormones. Immune responses and total antioxidant capacity were not reduced by lactation or resource limitation. Southern sea otters exhibited higher concentrations of antioxidants, immunoglobulins, and thyroid hormones than northern sea otters. These data provide evidence for allocation trade‐offs during reproduction and in response to nutrient limitation but suggest self‐maintenance of immune function and antioxidant defenses despite energetic constraints. Income‐breeding strategists may be especially vulnerable to the consequences of stress and modulation of thyroid function when food resources are insufficient to support successful reproduction and may come at a cost to survival, and thereby influence population trends.

California↗
USGS2018

Landscape genetics identifies streams and drainage infrastructure as dispersal corridors for an endangered wetland bird

Anthropogenic alterations to landscape structure and composition can have significant impacts on biodiversity, potentially leading to species extinctions. Population‐level impacts of landscape change are mediated by animal behaviors, in particular dispersal behavior. Little is known about the dispersal habits of rails (Rallidae) due to their cryptic behavior and tendency to occupy densely vegetated habitats. The effects of landscape structure on the movement behavior of waterbirds in general are poorly studied due to their reputation for having high dispersal abilities. We used a landscape genetic approach to test hypotheses of landscape effects on dispersal behavior of the Hawaiian gallinule ( Gallinula galeata sandvicensis ), an endangered subspecies endemic to the Hawaiian Islands. We created a suite of alternative resistance surfaces representing biologically plausible a priori hypotheses of how gallinules might navigate the landscape matrix and ranked these surfaces by their ability to explain observed patterns in genetic distance among 12 populations on the island of O`ahu. We modeled effective distance among wetland locations on all surfaces using both cumulative least‐cost‐path and resistance‐distance approaches and evaluated relative model performance using Mantel tests, a causal modeling approach, and the mixed‐model maximum‐likelihood population‐effects framework. Across all genetic markers, simulation methods, and model comparison metrics, surfaces that treated linear water features like streams, ditches, and canals as corridors for gallinule movement outperformed all other models. This is the first landscape genetic study on the movement behavior of any waterbird species to our knowledge. Our results indicate that lotic water features, including drainage infrastructure previously thought to be of minimal habitat value, contribute to habitat connectivity in this listed subspecies.

Hawai`i↗
USGS2018

A method to detect discontinuities in census data

The distribution of pattern across scales has predictive power in the analysis of complex systems. Discontinuity approaches remain a fruitful avenue of research in the quest for quantitative measures of resilience because discontinuity analysis provides an objective means of identifying scales in complex systems and facilitates delineation of hierarchical patterns in processes, structure, and resources. However, current discontinuity methods have been considered too subjective, too complicated and opaque, or have become computationally obsolete; given the ubiquity of discontinuities in ecological and other complex systems, a simple and transparent method for detection is needed. In this study, we present a method to detect discontinuities in census data based on resampling of a neutral model and provide the R code used to run the analyses. This method has the potential for advancing basic and applied ecological research.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2018

Social–ecological landscape patterns predict woody encroachment from native tree plantings in a temperate grassland

Afforestation is often viewed as the purposeful planting of trees in historically nonforested grasslands, but an unintended consequence is woody encroachment, which should be considered part of the afforestation process. In North America's temperate grassland biome, Eastern redcedar ( Juniperus virginiana L.) is a native species used in tree plantings that aggressively invades in the absence of controlling processes. Cedar is a well-studied woody encroacher, but little is known about the degree to which cedar windbreaks, which are advocated for in agroforestry programs, are contributing to woody encroachment, what factors are associated with cedar spread from windbreaks, nor where encroachment from windbreaks is occurring in contemporary social–ecological landscapes. We used remotely sensed imagery to identify the presence and pattern of woody encroachment from windbreaks in the Nebraska Sandhills. We used multimodel inference to compare three classes of models representing three hypotheses about factors that could influence cedar spread: (a) windbreak models based on windbreak structure and design elements; (b) abiotic models focused on local environmental conditions; and (c) landscape models characterizing coupled human-natural features within the broader matrix. Woody encroachment was evident for 23% of sampled windbreaks in the Nebraska Sandhills. Of our candidate models, our inclusive landscape model carried 92% of the model weight. This model indicated that encroachment from windbreaks was more likely near roadways and less likely near farmsteads, other cedar plantings, and waterbodies, highlighting strong social ties to the distribution of woody encroachment from tree plantings across contemporary landscapes. Our model findings indicate where additional investments into cedar control can be prioritized to prevent cedar spread from windbreaks. This approach can serve as a model in other temperate regions to identify where woody encroachment resulting from temperate agroforestry programs is emerging.

Nebraska↗
USGS2018

Flyway structure in the circumpolar greater white‐fronted goose

Dispersal and migratory behavior are influential factors in determining how genetic diversity is distributed across the landscape. In migratory species, genetic structure can be promoted via several mechanisms including fidelity to distinct migratory routes. Particularly within North America, waterfowl management units have been delineated according to distinct longitudinal migratory flyways supported by banding data and other direct evidence. The greater white‐fronted goose ( Anser albifrons ) is a migratory waterfowl species with a largely circumpolar distribution consisting of up to six subspecies roughly corresponding to phenotypic variation. We examined the rangewide population genetic structure of greater white‐fronted geese using mtDNA control region sequence data and microsatellite loci from 23 locales across North America and Eurasia. We found significant differentiation in mtDNA between sampling locales with flyway delineation explaining a significant portion of the observed genetic variation (~12%). This is concordant with band recovery data which shows little interflyway or intercontinental movements. However, microsatellite loci revealed little genetic structure suggesting a panmictic population across most of the Arctic. As with many high‐latitude species, Beringia appears to have played a role in the diversification of this species. A common Beringian origin of North America and Asian populations and a recent divergence could at least partly explain the general lack of structure at nuclear markers. Further, our results do not provide strong support for the various taxonomic proposals for this species except for supporting the distinctness of two isolated breeding populations within Cook Inlet, Alaska ( A. a. elgasi ) and Greenland ( A. a. flavirostris ), consistent with their subspecies status.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2018

Changing environmental gradients over forty years alter ecomorphological variation in Guadalupe Bass Micropterus treculii throughout a river basin

Understanding the degree of intraspecific variation within and among populations is a key aspect of predicting the capacity of a species to respond to anthropogenic disturbances. However, intraspecific variation is usually assessed at either limited temporal, but broad spatial scales or vice versa, which can make assessing changes in response to long-term disturbances challenging. We evaluated the relationship between the longitudinal gradient of changing flow regimes and land use/land cover patterns since 1980 and morphological variation of Guadalupe Bass Micropterus treculii throughout the Colorado River Basin of central Texas. The Colorado River Basin in Texas has experienced major alterations to the hydrologic regime due to changing land- and water-use patterns. Historical collections of Guadalupe Bass prior to rapid human-induced change present the unique opportunity to study the response of populations to varying environmental conditions through space and time. Morphological differentiation of Guadalupe Bass associated with temporal changes in flow regimes and land use/land cover patterns suggests that they are exhibiting intraspecific trait variability, with contemporary individuals showing increased body depth, in response to environmental alteration through time (specifically related to an increase in herbaceous land cover, maximum flows, and the number of low pulses and high pulses). Additionally, individuals from tributaries with increased hydrologic alteration associated with urbanization or agricultural withdrawals tended to have a greater distance between the anal and caudal fin. These results reveal trait variation that may help to buffer populations under conditions of increased urbanization and sprawl, human population growth, and climate risk, all of which impose novel selective pressures, especially on endemic species like Guadalupe Bass. Our results contribute an understanding of the adaptability and capacity of an endemic population to respond to expected future changes based on demographic or climatic projection.

Texas↗
USGS2018

A bioenergetics evaluation of temperature‐dependent selection for the spawning phenology by Snake River fall Chinook salmon

High water temperatures can increase the energetic cost for salmon to migrate and spawn, which can be important for Snake River fall‐run Chinook salmon because they migrate great distances (>500 km) at a time when river temperatures (18–24°C) can be above their optimum temperatures (16.5°C). Average river temperatures and random combinations of migration and spawning dates were used to simulate fish travel times and determine the energetic consequences of different thermal experiences during migration. An energy threshold criterion (4 kJ/g) was also imposed on survival and spawning success, which was used to determine how prevailing temperatures might select against certain migration dates and thermal experiences, and in turn, explain the selection for the current spawning phenology of the population. Scenarios of tributary use for thermal refugia under increasing water temperatures (1, 2, and 3°C) were also run to determine which combinations of migration dates, travel rates, and resulting thermal experiences might be most affected by energy exhaustion. As expected, when compared to observations, the model under existing conditions and energy use could explain the onset, but not the end of the observed spawning migration. Simulations of early migrants had greater energy loss than late migrants regardless of the river temperature scenario, but higher temperatures disproportionately selected against a larger fraction of early‐migrating fish, although using cold‐water tributaries during migration provided a buffer against higher energy use at higher temperatures. The fraction of simulated fish that exceeded the threshold for migration success increased from 58% to 72% as average seasonal river temperatures over baseline temperatures increased. The model supports the conclusion that increases in average seasonal river temperatures as little as 1°C could impose greater thermal constraints on the fish, select against early migrants, and in turn, truncate the onset of the current spawning migration.

Columbia River, Snake River↗