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At least 253 records · Page 14Linked to original sources

USGS2014

Auroral omens of the American Civil War

Aurorae are a splendid night-time sight: coruscations of green, purple, and red fluorescent light in the form of gently wafting ribbons, billowing curtains, and flashing rays. Mostly seen at high latitudes, in the north aurorae are often called the northern lights or aurora borealis, and, in the south, the southern lights or aurora australis. The mystery of their cause has historically been the subject of wonder. The folklore and mythology of some far-northern civilizations attributed auroral light to celestial deities. And, in ironic contrast with their heavenly beauty, unusual auroral displays, such as those seen on rare occasions at lower southern latitudes, have sometimes been interpreted as portending unfavorable future events. Today we understand aurorae to be a visual manifestation of the dynamic conditions in the space environment surrounding the earth. Important direct evidence in support of this theory came on September 1, 1859. On that day, an English astronomer named Richard Carrington was situated at his telescope, which was pointed at the sun. While observing and sketching a large group of sunspots, he saw a solar flare—intense patches of white light that were superimposed upon the darker sunspot group and which were illuminated for about a minute. One day later, a magnetic storm was recorded at specially designed observatories in Europe, across Russia, and in India. By many measures, the amplitude of magnetic disturbance was the greatest ever recorded. In the United States, the effects of the Carrington storm could be seen as irregular backand-forth deflections of a few degrees in the magnetized needle of a compass. Rapid magnetic variation also induced electric fields in the earth’s conducting lithosphere, and interfered with the operation of telegraph systems. The Carrington magnetic storm, and an earlier storm that had occurred on August 28, 1859, caused spectacular displays of aurora borealis in the night-time sky over the entire United States and the western hemisphere, possibly all the way down to the equator. This was extremely unusual, so much so that an auroral event o

Weatherwise↗

USGS2009

Effects of megascale eruptions on Earth and Mars

Volcanic features are common on geologically active earthlike planets. Megascale or "super" eruptions involving >1000 Gt of magma have occurred on both Earth and Mars in the geologically recent past, introducing prodigious volumes of ash and volcanic gases into the atmosphere. Here we discuss felsic (explosive) and mafi c (flood lava) supereruptions and their potential atmospheric and environmental effects on both planets. On Earth, felsic supereruptions recur on average about every 100-200,000 years and our present knowledge of the 73.5 ka Toba eruption implies that such events can have the potential to be catastrophic to human civilization. A future eruption of this type may require an unprecedented response from humankind to assure the continuation of civilization as we know it. Mafi c supereruptions have resulted in atmospheric injection of volcanic gases (especially SO 2 ) and may have played a part in punctuating the history of life on Earth. The contrast between the more sustained effects of flood basalt eruptions (decades to centuries) and the near-instantaneous effects of large impacts (months to years) is worthy of more detailed study than has been completed to date. Products of mafi c supereruptions, signifi cantly larger than known from the geologic record on Earth, are well preserved on Mars. The volatile emissions from these eruptions most likely had global dispersal, but the effects may not have been outside what Mars endures even in the absence of volcanic eruptions. This is testament to the extreme variability of the current Martian atmosphere: situations that would be considered catastrophic on Earth are the norm on Mars. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America↗

USGS2009

Fire in the Earth system

Fire is a worldwide phenomenon that appears in the geological record soon after the appearance of terrestrial plants. Fire influences global ecosystem patterns and processes, including vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle, and climate. Although humans and fire have always coexisted, our capacity to manage fire remains imperfect and may become more difficult in the future as climate change alters fire regimes. This risk is difficult to assess, however, because fires are still poorly represented in global models. Here, we discuss some of the most important issues involved in developing a better understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system.

Science↗

USGS1983

Geology and description of thorium and rare-earth deposits in the southern Bear Lodge Mountains, northeastern Wyoming

The Bear Lodge Mountains are a small northerly trending range approximately 16 km northwest of the Black Hills in the northeast corner of Wyoming. Thorium and rare-earth deposits occur over an area of 16 km 2 in the southern part of these mountains. These deposits occur in the core of the Bear Lodge dome in a large multiple intrusive body made up principally of trachyte and phonolite. Two types of deposits are recognized: disseminated deposits and veins. The disseminated deposits are made up of altered igneous rocks cut by numerous crisscrossing veinlets. The disseminated deposits contain thorium and rare-earth minerals in a matrix consisting principally of potassium feldspar, quartz, and iron and manganese oxides. Total rare-earth content of these deposits is about 27 times that of the thorium content. The general size and shape of the disseminated deposits were outlined by making a radiometric map using a scintillation counter of the entire Bear Lodge core, an area of approximately 30 km 2 . The most favorable part of this area, which was outlined by the 40 countJs (count-per-second) isograd on the radiometric map, was sampled in detail. A total of 341 samples were taken over an area of 10.6 km 2 and analyzed for as many as 60 elements. Rare earths and thorium are the principal commodities of interest in these deposits. Total rare-earth content of these samples ranged from 47 to 27,145 ppm (parts per million), and the thorium content from 9.3 to 990 ppm. The amount of total rare earths of individual samples shows little correlation with that of thorium. Contour maps were constructed using the analytical data for total rare earths, thorium, uranium, and potassium. The total rare-earth and thorium maps can be used to define the size of the deposits based on what cut-off grade may be needed during mining. The size is large as the 2,000 ppm total rare-earth isograd encloses several areas that total 3.22 km 2 in size, and the 200 ppm thorium isograd encloses several areas that total 1.69 km 2 . These deposits could be mined by open pit. The Bear Lodge disseminated deposits have one of the largest resources of both total rare earths and thorium in the United States, and although the grade of both commodities is lower than some other deposits, their large size and relative cheapness of mining make them an important future resource. Vein deposits in the Bear Lodge Mountains include all tabular bodies at least 5 cm thick. Twenty-six veins were noted in this area. These veins are thin and short; the longest vein was traced for only 137 m. Minerals vary greatly in the amount present. Gangue minerals are commonly potassium feldspar, quartz, or cristobalite intermixed with varying amounts of limonite, hematite, and various manganese oxides. Rare earths and thorium occur in the minerals monazite, brockite, and bastnaesite. Thorium content of 35 samples ranged from 0.01 to 1.2 percent, and the total rare-earth content of 21 samples from 0.23 to 9.8 percent. Indicated reserves were calculated to a depth of one-third the exposed length of the vein. Inferred reserves lie in a block surrounding indicated reserves. Indicated reserves of all veins are only 50 t of Th0 2 and 1,360 t of total rare-earth oxides; inferred reserves are 250 t of Th0 2 and 6,810 t of total rare-earth oxides. The Bear Lodge dome, which underlies the greater part of this area, is formed by multiple intrusive bodies of Tertiary age that dome up the surrounding sedimentary rocks. In the southern part of the core, the younger intrusive bodies surround and partly replace a granite of Precambrian age. This granite is approximately 2.6 b.y. old. The sedimentary rocks around the core are (from oldest to youngest): Deadwood Formation of Late Cambrian and Early Ordovician age, Whitewood Limestone of Late Ordovician age, Pahasapa Limestone of Early Mississippian age, Minnelusa Sandstone of Pennsylvanian and Early Permian age, Opeche Formation of Permian age, Minnek

Professional Paper↗

USGS2017

Geomagnetically induced currents: Science, engineering, and applications readiness

This paper is the primary deliverable of the very first NASA Living With a Star Institute Working Group, Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) Working Group. The paper provides a broad overview of the current status and future challenges pertaining to the science, engineering, and applications of the GIC problem. Science is understood here as the basic space and Earth sciences research that allows improved understanding and physics-based modeling of the physical processes behind GIC. Engineering, in turn, is understood here as the “impact” aspect of GIC. Applications are understood as the models, tools, and activities that can provide actionable information to entities such as power systems operators for mitigating the effects of GIC and government agencies for managing any potential consequences from GIC impact to critical infrastructure. Applications can be considered the ultimate goal of our GIC work. In assessing the status of the field, we quantify the readiness of various applications in the mitigation context. We use the Applications Readiness Level (ARL) concept to carry out the quantification.

Space Weather↗

USGS1980

Iowa observation well network; past, present, and future

Water-level measurements in wells were started by the USGS in Iowa in 1935. Since then a total of about 450 different wells have been measured. The present network consists of about 70 wells. The measurement of these water levels aids in evaluating the present and future water resources of the State. Many factors influence water-level fluctuations. These factors include atmospheric pressure, withdrawals by pumping, earthquakes, earth tides, change in surface loading, discharge to streams, evapotranspiration, and precipitation. Fluctuations produced by artificial discharge through pumping is a common phenomena but unlike the other factors can be regulated and controlled. All present and past USGS observation wells for the State of Iowa since 1935 are listed and located on maps. It is recommended that improvement of the observation-well network by the addition of wells in specific areas should be undertaken as soon as possible.

Iowa↗

USGS2012

Byproduct metals and rare-earth elements used in the production of light-emitting diodes—Overview of principal sources of supply and material requirements for selected markets

The use of light-emitting diodes (LEDs) is expanding because of environmental issues and the efficiency and cost savings achieved compared with use of traditional incandescent lighting. The longer life and reduced power consumption of some LEDs have led to annual energy savings, reduced maintenance costs, and lower emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides from powerplants because of the resulting decrease in energy consumption required for lighting applications when LEDs are used to replace less-energy-efficient sources. Metals such as arsenic, gallium, indium, and the rare-earth elements (REEs) cerium, europium, gadolinium, lanthanum, terbium, and yttrium are important mineral materials used in LED semiconductor technology. Most of the world's supply of these materials is produced as byproducts from the production of aluminum, copper, lead, and zinc. Most of the rare earths required for LED production in 2011 came from China, and most LED production facilities were located in Asia. The LED manufacturing process is complex and is undergoing much change with the growth of the industry and the changes in demand patterns of associated commodities. In many respects, the continued growth of the LED industry, particularly in the general lighting sector, is tied to its ability to increase LED efficiency and color uniformity while decreasing the costs of producing, purchasing, and operating LEDs. Research is supported by governments of China, the European Union, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United States. Because of the volume of ongoing research in this sector, it is likely that the material requirements of future LEDs may be quite different than LEDs currently (2011) in use as industry attempts to cut costs by reducing material requirements of expensive heavy rare-earth phosphors and increasing the sizes of wafers for economies of scale. Improved LED performance will allow customers to reduce the number of LEDs in automotive, electronic, and lighting applications, which could reduce the overall demand for material components. Non-Chinese sources for rare earths are being developed, and some of these new sources are likely to be operational in time to meet increasing demand for rare earths from the LED sector. Because most LED component production and manufacturing occurs in Asia and many LED producers have established supply contracts with Chinese producers of rare earths, a significant amount of the metallic gallium, indium, and the rare earths used for LED production will likely continue to come from Chinese sources at least for the next 5 years; however, a greater amount of these materials are now being processed in Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Taiwan. As non-Chinese sources of rare earths come into production, these new mines are likely to be sources of light REEs, but China will likely remain the leading source of supply for the heavy REEs suitable for use as LED dopants and phosphors at least for the next few years. Increased research in the development of phosphors that use smaller amounts of or different REEs is intended to reduce dependence on rare earths from China. Supply disruption of rare earths and other specialty metals could take place if China's specialty metal exports are redirected to domestic markets. The cost of recovery is high and the lifespan for LEDs is comparatively long; thus, the LED waste volume was low in 2010, and few LEDs were recycled. The minute metal content of LEDs leads to a high cost for recovery, so recycling of LEDs outside of electronic waste is unlikely in the near term, although some LED producers are evaluating recycling options. Recycling of metals from LEDs in electronic waste is possible if the costs of recovering metals are justified by demand and metal prices.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2019

Late Quaternary slip rate of the Central Sierra Madre fault, southern California: Implications for slip partitioning and earthquake hazard

The Sierra Madre fault system accommodates contraction within a large restraining bend area of the San Andreas fault along the northern margin of the Los Angeles metropolitan area in Southern California. Reverse slip along this fault system during earthquakes controls growth of the San Gabriel Mountains and poses a significant seismic hazard to the region. Here, we measure the late Quaternary slip rate of the Central Sierra Madre fault (CSMF) using analysis of high-resolution topography combined with cosmogenic 10Be surface exposure dating and post-IR IRSL geochronology. We mapped terrace and fan surfaces from three drainages that cross the CSMF and correlate them based on soil development and geomorphic position. Cosmogenic nuclide and luminescence ages are consistent amongst the three prominent surfaces offset ~5 to 28 m across the fault zone. We devised a new strategy to estimate surface ages, incorporating data from two dating methods at three locations, refined by inset age relationships, that yields surface age estimates of 54 +21/-13 ka, 36 ± 8 ka, and 12 ± 4 ka. Estimated slip for these geomorphic markers is more uncertain than the measured vertical separation due to uncertainties in fault dip and ranges from 7.5 +5.4/-3.1 m to 58.5 +46.3/-14.4 m. Incremental dip-slip rate estimates from different age surfaces and locations overlap within uncertainty, with median values ranging from 0.7 to 1.1 mm/yr. The average slip rate for all three generations of markers is 1.1 +1.2/-0.4 mm/yr. This late Quaternary slip rate for the CSMF is slower than estimates based on interseismic geodetic data, and emphasizes the importance of contraction distributed across multiple structures south of the Sierra Madre fault when assessed against the geodetic shortening budget. Despite being the central portion of the broader Sierra Madre fault system, the CSMF has a slip rate similar to or lower than neighboring sections, suggesting that slip transfer onto other nearby faults control the along-strike pattern of deformation rate. Paleoseismic evidence indicates that the last earthquake on the CSMF was in the early Holocene, and the slip rate we estimate suggests that the accumulated elastic strain could produce many meters of slip in future earthquakes.

California↗

USGS2023

Poleward amplification, seasonal rainfall and forest heterogeneity in the Miocene of the eastern USA

Paleoclimate reconstructions can provide a window into the environmental conditions in Earth history when atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than today. In the eastern USA, paleoclimate reconstructions are sparse, because terrestrial sedimentary deposits are rare. Despite this, the eastern USA has the largest population and population density in North America, and understanding the effects of current and future climate change is of vital importance. Here, we provide terrestrial paleoclimate reconstructions of the eastern USA from Miocene fossil floras. Additionally, we compare proxy paleoclimate reconstructions from the warmest period in the Miocene, the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO), to those of an MCO Earth System Model. Reconstructed Miocene temperatures and precipitation north of 35°N are higher than modern. In contrast, south of 35°N, temperatures and precipitation are similar to today, suggesting a poleward amplification effect in eastern North America. Reconstructed Miocene rainfall seasonality was predominantly higher than modern, regardless of latitude, indicating greater variability in intra-annual moisture transport. Reconstructed climates are almost uniformly in the temperate seasonal forest biome, but heterogeneity of specific forest types is evident. Reconstructed Miocene terrestrial temperatures from the eastern USA are lower than modeled temperatures and coeval Atlantic sea surface temperatures. However, reconstructed rainfall is consistent with modeled rainfall. Our results show that during the Miocene, climate was most different from modern in the northeastern states, and may suggest a drastic reduction in the meridional temperature gradient along the North American east coast compared to today.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2002

Traceable Radiometry Underpinning Terrestrial- and Helio- Studies (TRUTHS)

The Traceable Radiometry Underpinning Terrestrial- and Helio- Studies (TRUTHS) mission offers a novel approach to the provision of key scientific data with unprecedented radiometric accuracy for Earth Observation (EO) and solar studies, which will also establish well-calibrated reference targets/standards to support other EO missions. This paper will present the TRUTHS mission and its objectives. TRUTHS will be the first satellite mission to calibrate its instrumentation directly to SI in orbit, overcoming the usual uncertainties associated with drifts of sensor gain and spectral shape by using an electrical rather than an optical standard as the basis of its calibration. The range of instruments flown as part of the payload will also provide accurate input data to improve atmospheric radiative transfer codes by anchoring boundary conditions, through simultaneous measurements of aerosols, particulates and radiances at various heights. Therefore, TRUTHS will significantly improve the performance and accuracy of Earth observation missions with broad global or operational aims, as well as more dedicated missions. The provision of reference standards will also improve synergy between missions by reducing errors due to different calibration biases and offer cost reductions for future missions by reducing the demands for on-board calibration systems. Such improvements are important for the future success of strategies such as Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) and the implementation and monitoring of international treaties such as the Kyoto Protocol. TRUTHS will achieve these aims by measuring the geophysical variables of solar and lunar irradiance, together with both polarised and un-polarised spectral radiance of the Moon, and the Earth and its atmosphere.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2019

Volcano deformation: Insights into magmatic systems

Volcano geodesy is the branch of geodetic science that deals with the changing shapes of volcanoes, whether large or small, deep-seated or surficial. Together with seismicity and volcanic gas flux, deformation of the ground surface can be a key indicator of subsurface conditions and processes at volcanoes—information that not only improves scientific understanding of magmatic systems but also is useful for assessing volcano hazards and mitigating their potential consequences. To take full advantage of such information requires detailed characterization of the deformation field in space and time. Currently, no single geodetic technique is capable of providing both the high spatial and temporal resolution required. However, important advances have been made recently by combining information from real-time in situ sensors such as continuous GPS, strainmeters, and tiltmeters with repeated campaign-style GPS, microgravity, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), lidar, and photogrammetric observations. Continuous real-time data constrain the timing but not necessarily the spatial extent and pattern of deformation, whereas InSAR provides detailed spatial information but only at intervals of several days to weeks. Repeated microgravity surveys, when combined with independent measurements of surface height, are uniquely sensitive to changes in subsurface mass distribution and therefore can be used to distinguish among processes driven by magma, hydrous fluids, or gas. Simultaneous analysis of multiple geodetic datasets, especially when guided by information from global volcano databases and numerical simulations of volcanic processes and products, can provide a statistical basis for outcome prediction and serve as a guide for additional observations. In the foreseeable future, interactions among magmatic, tectonic, and hydrothermal systems will be monitored and modeled at regional scale in real time, enabling new insights into Earth’s subsurface environment.

Book chapter↗

USGS2026

A diatom-based quantitative sea-ice proxy for the Bering and Chukchi seas

Sea ice affects Earth's climate system on both regional and global scales. Its incorporation into climate can be used to achieve more accurate predictions of future climate. However, instrumental records of sea-ice concentration do not extend earlier than 1978. In an effort to extend this record, we constructed a proxy using the generalized additive model based on relative abundances of five easy-to-identify diatom species found in sediment samples across the Bering and Chukchi seas. Here we present the first quantitative diatom-based sea-ice proxy developed for Beringia. The developed proxy has been applied to two sediment cores in the Bering Sea ranging from 0 to 25.7 ka (HLY0204 51JPC) and 369 to 430 ka (IODP Exp 323 Site U1345) and one in the Chukchi Sea ranging from 2.7 to 10 ka (HLY0204 24JPC). The obtained reconstructions of sea-ice concentrations are similar, but not identical to previously published qualitative and nearby records based on other proxies. Because our results are quantitative, they can be incorporated into regional climate models. The proxy is publicly available as an R Shiny application (app) and can be applied to any diatom count from marine sediments in the region.

Bering Sea, Chukchi Sea↗

USGS2023

Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models

Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in laboratory-derived thermal response curves and provides estimates of thermal habitat suitability and extinction probability based on site-specific conditions. We show that temperature-driven changes in distributions, local extinction, and abundance of cold, cool, and warm-adapted species vary substantially when physiological information is incorporated. Notably, cold-adapted species were predicted by the PGA model to be extirpated in 61% of locations that they currently inhabit, while extirpation was never predicted by a correlative niche model. Failure to account for species-specific physiological constraints could lead to unrealistic predictions under a warming climate, including underestimates of local extirpation for cold-adapted species near the edges of their climate niche space and overoptimistic predictions of warm-adapted species.

Minnesota↗

USGS1994

Predicting earthquake effects—Learning from Northridge and Loma Prieta

The continental United States has been rocked by two particularly damaging earthquakes in the last 4.5 years, Loma Prieta in northern California in 1989 and Northridge in southern California in 1994. Combined losses from these two earthquakes approached $30 billion. Approximately half these losses were reimbursed by the federal government. Because large earthquakes typically overwhelm state resources and place unplanned burdens on the federal government, it is important to learn from these earthquakes how to reduce future losses. My purpose here is to explore a potential implication of the Northridge and Loma Prieta earthquakes for hazard-mitigation strategies: earth scientists should increase their efforts to map hazardous areas within urban regions.

Science↗

USGS2025

Geochemical processes related to mined, milled, or natural metal deposits in a rapidly changing global environment

The demand for metals and raw materials, such as nickel and copper, has been projected to expand in the coming decades, driven by the global energy transition, the need for green technologies, and expanding infrastructure. Consequently, the increasing extraction and production of mining waste can have adverse impacts on surrounding environments and human health. The aim of this thematic collection is to fill critical knowledge gaps in the present-day cycles of metal(loid)s from source to larger sinks, and the effect of environmental management, anthropogenic development, and climate change. Altogether, the studies have been conducted in different natural settings around the world and comprise investigations in laterites, a soil-medicinal plant system, watersheds, and banded iron formations, among others. The geochemical applications in tracing mineralization, its secondary products, and/or potential impact on the immediate environment are highly diverse with applied tools ranging from isotope tracers to major and trace element systematics. Particularly the use of rare earth elements, their patterns and anomalies are methods employed by several studies in this collection. We summarize the findings to offer a potential future direction for the use of geochemical tracing techniques in resource exploration in the context of climate change and environmental challenges.

Geochemistry: Exploration, Environment, Analysis↗

USGS2023

Learning from arid and urban aquatic ecosystems to inform more sustainable and resilient futures

The hydrology and aquatic ecology of arid environments has long been understudied relative to temperate regions. Yet spatially and temporally intermittent and ephemeral waters characterized by flashy hydrographs typify arid regions that comprise a substantial proportion of the Earth. Additionally, drought, intense storms, and human modification of landscapes increasingly affect many temperate regions, resulting in hydrologic regimes more similar to aridlands. Here we review the contributions of Dr. Nancy Grimm to aridland hydrology and ecology, and applications of these insights to urban ecosystems and resilience of social-ecological-technological systems. Grimm catalyzed study of nitrogen cycling in streams and characterized feedbacks between surface water-groundwater exchange, nitrogen transformations, and aquatic biota. In aridlands, outcomes of these interactions depend on short- and long-term variation in the hydrologic regime. Grimm and colleagues applied hydrological and biogeochemical insights gained from study of aridland streams to urban ecosystems, integrating engineering, social and behavioral sciences, and geography. These studies evolved from characterizing the spatial heterogeneity of urban systems (i.e., watersheds, novel aquatic systems) and its influence on nutrient dynamics to an approach that evaluated human decision-making as a driver of disturbance regimes and changes in ecosystem function. Finally, Grimm and colleagues have applied principles of urban ecology to look toward the future of cities, considering scenarios of sustainable and resilient futures. We identify cross-cutting themes and approaches that have motivated discoveries across Grimm’s multi-decadal career, including spatial and temporal heterogeneity, hydrologic connectivity and regime, disturbance, systems thinking, and resilience. Finally, we emphasize Grimm’s broad contributions to science via support of long-term research, dedication to mentoring, and extensive collaborations that facilitated transdisciplinary research.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2021

Modes of climate variability bridge proximate and evolutionary mechanisms of masting

There is evidence that variable and synchronous reproduction in seed plants (masting) correlates to modes of climate variability, e.g. El Niño Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. In this perspective, we explore the breadth of knowledge on how climate modes control reproduction in major masting species throughout Earth's biomes. We posit that intrinsic properties of climate modes (periodicity, persistence and trends) drive interannual and decadal variability of plant reproduction, as well as the spatial extent of its synchrony, aligning multiple proximate causes of masting through space and time. Moreover, climate modes force lagged but in-phase ecological processes that interact synergistically with multiple stages of plant reproductive cycles. This sets up adaptive benefits by increasing offspring fitness through either economies of scale or environmental prediction. Community-wide links between climate modes and masting across plant taxa suggest an evolutionary role of climate variability. We argue that climate modes may ‘bridge’ proximate and ultimate causes of masting selecting for variable and synchronous reproduction. The future of such interaction is uncertain: processes that improve reproductive fitness may remain coupled with climate modes even under changing climates, but chances are that abrupt global warming will affect Earth's climate modes so rapidly as to alter ecological and evolutionary links.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2024

The development of China’s monopoly over cobalt battery materials

While previous resource conflicts have often been linked to fuel minerals such as oil, future resource conflict may revolve around nonfuel minerals that enable strategic emerging technologies. During a 2010 diplomatic dispute, China reportedly blocked exports of rare earth elements to Japan, thereby leveraging China’s near-monopoly to threaten Japanese manufacturers of advanced technologies including batteries and permanent magnets. Although this caused significant concern for manufacturers outside China, China’s control over other critical minerals has yet to be studied comprehensively. Besides rare earth elements, perhaps no mineral has received more attention for its supply risks than cobalt. Here Chinese control is estimated for each cobalt material at each stage of the cobalt supply chain from 2000 through 2022. The results show that from mining, to refining, consumption, recycling, stocks, and trade, China dominates the cobalt materials that feed lithium-ion battery cathode production. Specifically, the results show that in 2022 Chinese firms had control over 62% of cobalt mine materials primarily used for cobalt chemical refining, 95% control of refined commercial-grade cobalt chemicals, 92% control of battery-grade tricobalt tetroxide, 85% control of battery-grade cobalt sulfate, and 91% control of nickel–cobalt-manganese cathode precursor materials. China’s monopoly over cobalt battery materials may imply a serious supply risk to non-Chinese battery producing and consuming industries—especially given rising geopolitical tensions and the reemergence of critical mineral export restrictions including gallium for semiconductors, germanium for solar panels, graphite for lithium-ion batteries, and (again) rare earth elements.

Mineral Economics↗