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At least 253 records · Page 14Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Genomic signatures of thermal adaptation are associated with clinal shifts of life history in a broadly distributed frog

Temperature is a critical driver of ectotherm life-history strategies, whereby a warmer environment is associated with increased growth, reduced longevity and accelerated senescence. Increasing evidence indicates that thermal adaptation may underlie such life-history shifts in wild populations. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and copy number variants (CNVs) can help uncover the molecular mechanisms of temperature-driven variation in growth, longevity and senescence. However, our understanding of these mechanisms is still limited, which reduces our ability to predict the response of non-model ectotherms to global temperature change. In this study, we examined the potential role of thermal adaptation in clinal shifts of life-history traits (i.e. life span, senescence rate and recruitment) in the Columbia spotted frog Rana luteiventris along a broad temperature gradient in the western United States. We took advantage of extensive capture–recapture datasets of 20,033 marked individuals from eight populations surveyed annually for 14–18 years to examine how mean annual temperature and precipitation influenced demographic parameters (i.e. adult survival, life span, senescence rate, recruitment and population growth). After showing that temperature was the main climatic predictor influencing demography, we used RAD-seq data (50,829 SNPs and 6,599 putative CNVs) generated for 352 individuals from 31 breeding sites to identify the genomic signatures of thermal adaptation. Our results showed that temperature was negatively associated with annual adult survival and reproductive life span and positively associated with senescence rate. By contrast, recruitment increased with temperature, promoting the long-term viability of most populations. These temperature-dependent demographic changes were associated with strong genomic signatures of thermal adaptation. We identified 148 SNP candidates associated with temperature including three SNPs located within protein-coding genes regulating resistance to cold and hypoxia, immunity and reproduction in ranids. We also identified 39 CNV candidates (including within 38 transposable elements) for which normalized read depth was associated with temperature. Our study indicates that both SNPs and structural variants are associated with temperature and could eventually be found to play a functional role in clinal shifts in senescence rate and life-history strategies in R. luteiventris . These results highlight the potential role of different sources of molecular variation in the response of ectotherms to environmental temperature variation in the context of global warming.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2025

Seasonal body mass dynamics mediate life-history trade-offs in a hibernating mammal

1. Energetic acquisition and growth are key traits that affect demography and life-history strategies. Many animals that live in seasonal environments in which food availability fluctuates store energy endogenously as fat in anticipation of food shortage. Fat-storing mammalian hibernators are an extreme example of this strategy where the optimal resolution of resource allocation trade-offs is essential to survival. Hence, these species provide an opportunity to test potential causes and consequences of seasonal body mass dynamics. 2. We used a 12-year dataset with 8753 body mass records from 3351 individually marked northern Idaho ground squirrels ( Urocitellus brunneus ) – a federally threatened hibernator – to meet three objectives: (1) document seasonal body mass changes by sex, age, and reproductive status, (2) test ecological hypotheses to explain spatiotemporal variation in body mass, and (3) document fitness consequences of pre-hibernation body condition via condition-dependent overwinter survival. 3. Squirrels varied substantially in seasonal body mass dynamics. The magnitude (36-155%) and onset (late May to early July) of rapid active-season mass gain varied among demographic groups. Reproductive females acquired the necessary fat stores to survive hibernation later in the active season than did males and non-reproductive females. Moreover, squirrels with better pre-hibernation body condition were more likely to survive to the subsequent year, potentially because they allocated excess energetic reserves to prolonging hibernation via early immergence and thereby reduced predation risk. These results suggest a direct trade-off between current and future reproduction mediated by resource acquisition and allocation, as predicted by life-history theory. 4. Colder active-season temperatures and lower conspecific densities negatively influenced squirrel body condition, possibly via reductions in foraging activity associated with those conditions. These ecological effects on body condition constrain resource allocation and demographic outcomes. As such, our results can help guide research and conservation strategies to benefit hibernating animals.

Idaho↗
USGS2015

Toward a mechanistic understanding of human-induced rapid environmental change: A case study linking energy development, avian nest predation, and predators

Demographic consequences of human-induced rapid environmental change (HIREC) have been widely documented for many populations. The mechanisms underlying such patterns, however, are rarely investigated and yet are critical to understand for effective conservation and management. We investigated the mechanisms underlying reduced avian nest survival with intensification of natural gas development, an increasing source of human-induced rapid environmental change globally. We tested the hypothesis that energy development increased the local activity of important nest predator species, thereby elevating nest predation rates. During 2011–2012, we surveyed predators and monitored 668 nests of Brewer's sparrows Spizella breweri (BRSP), sagebrush sparrows Artemisiospiza nevadensis (SASPs) and sage thrashers Oreoscoptes montanus (SATHs) breeding at twelve sites spanning a gradient of habitat loss from energy development in western Wyoming, USA. Nine species, representing four mammalian and three avian families, were video-recorded depredating eggs and nestlings. Important nest predator species differed across songbird species, despite similar nesting habitats. Approximately 75% of depredation events were by rodents. Consistent with our predictions, detections of most rodent nest predators increased with surrounding habitat loss due to natural gas development, which was associated with increased probability of nest predation for our three focal bird species. An altered nest predator assemblage was therefore at least partly responsible for elevated avian nest predation risk in areas with more surrounding energy development. Synthesis and applications . We demonstrate one mechanism, that is the local augmentation of predators, by which human-induced rapid environmental change can influence the demography of local populations. Given the accelerating trajectory of global energy demands, an important next step will be to understand why the activity and/or abundance of rodent predators increased with surrounding habitat loss from energy development activities.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2017

Oak habitat recovery on California's largest islands: Scenarios for the role of corvid seed dispersal

Seed dispersal by birds is central to the passive restoration of many tree communities. Reintroduction of extinct seed dispersers can therefore restore degraded forests and woodlands. To test this, we constructed a spatially explicit simulation model, parameterized with field data, to consider the effect of different seed dispersal scenarios on the extent of oak populations. We applied the model to two islands in California's Channel Islands National Park (USA), one of which has lost a key seed disperser. We used an ensemble modelling approach to simulate island scrub oak ( Quercus pacifica ) demography. The model was developed and trained to recreate known population changes over a 20-year period on 250-km 2 Santa Cruz Island, and incorporated acorn dispersal by island scrub-jays ( Aphelocoma insularis ), deer mice ( Peromyscus maniculatus ) and gravity, as well as seed predation. We applied the trained model to 215-km 2 Santa Rosa Island to examine how reintroducing island scrub-jays would affect the rate and pattern of oak population expansion. Oak habitat on Santa Rosa Island has been greatly reduced from its historical extent due to past grazing by introduced ungulates, the last of which were removed by 2011. Our simulation model predicts that a seed dispersal scenario including island scrub-jays would increase the extent of the island scrub oak population on Santa Rosa Island by 281% over 100 years, and by 544% over 200 years. Scenarios without jays would result in little expansion. Simulated long-distance seed dispersal by jays also facilitates establishment of discontinuous patches of oaks, and increases their elevational distribution. Synthesis and applications . Scenario planning provides powerful decision support for conservation managers. We used ensemble modelling of plant demographic and seed dispersal processes to investigate whether the reintroduction of seed dispersers could provide cost-effective means of achieving broader ecosystem restoration goals on California's second-largest island. The simulation model, extensively parameterized with field data, suggests that re-establishing the mutualism with seed-hoarding jays would accelerate the expansion of island scrub oak, which could benefit myriad species of conservation concern.

California↗
USGS2021

Long‐term surveys support declines in early‐season forest plants used by bumblebees

Populations of bumble bees and other pollinators have declined over the past several decades due to numerous threats, including habitat loss and degradation. However, we can rarely investigate the role of resource loss due to a lack of detailed long‐term records of forage plants and habitats. We use 22‐year repeated surveys of more than 262 sites located in grassland, forest, and wetland habitats across Illinois, USA to explore how the abundance and richness of bumble bee food plants have changed over the period of decline of the endangered rusty patched bumble bee ( Bombus affinis ). We document a decline in abundance of bumble bee forage plants in forest understories, which our phenology analysis suggests provide the primary nectar and pollen sources for foundress queens in spring, a critical life stage in bumble bee demography. By contrast, the per‐unit area abundance of food plants in primarily midsummer‐flowering grassland and wetland habitats has not declined. However, the total area of grasslands has declined across the region resulting in a net loss of grassland resources. Synthesis and applications . Our results suggest a decline in spring‐flowering forest understory plants is a previously unappreciated bumble bee stressor, compounding factors like agricultural intensification, novel pathogen exposure, and grassland habitat loss. These findings emphasize the need for greater consideration of habitat complementarity in bumble bee conservation. We conclude that continued loss of early‐season floral resources may add additional stress to critical life stages of bumble bees and limit restoration efforts if not explicitly considered in pollinator conservation.

Illinois↗
USGS2021

Weighing the unknowns: Value of information for biological and operational uncertainty in invasion management

The management of biological invasions is a worldwide conservation priority. Unfortunately, decision-making on optimal invasion management can be impeded by lack of information about the biological processes that determine invader success (i.e. biological uncertainty) or by uncertainty about the effectiveness of candidate interventions (i.e. operational uncertainty). Concurrent assessment of both sources of uncertainty within the same framework can help to optimize control decisions. Here, we present a Value of Information (VoI) framework to simultaneously analyze the effects of biological and operational uncertainties on management outcomes. We demonstrate this approach with a case study: minimizing the long-term population growth of musk thistle ( Carduus nutans ), a widespread invasive plant, using several insects as biological control agents, including Trichosirocalus horridus , Rhinocyllus conicus , and Urophora solstitialis . The ranking of biocontrol agents was sensitive to differences in the target weed’s demography and also to differences in the effectiveness of the different biocontrol agents. This finding suggests that accounting for both biological and operational uncertainties is valuable when making management recommendations for invasion control. Furthermore, our VoI analyses show that reduction of all uncertainties across all combinations of demographic model and biocontrol effectiveness explored in the current study would lead, on average, to a 15.6% reduction in musk thistle population growth rate. The specific growth reduction that would be observed in any instance would depend on how the uncertainties actually resolve. Resolving biological uncertainty (across demographic model combinations) or operational uncertainty (across biocontrol effectiveness combinations) alone would reduce expected population growth rate by 8.5% and 10.5%, respectively. Synthesis and applications . Our study demonstrates that intervention rank is determined both by biological processes in the targeted invasive populations and by intervention effectiveness. Ignoring either biological uncertainty or operational uncertainty may result in a sub-optimal recommendation. Therefore, it is important to simultaneously acknowledge both sources of uncertainty during the decision-making process in invasion management. The framework presented here can accommodate diverse data sources and modelling approaches, and has wide applicability to guide invasive species management and conservation efforts.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2022

Epidemiological differences between sexes affect management efficacy in simulated chronic wasting disease systems

Sex-based differences in physiology, behaviour and demography commonly result in differences in disease prevalence. However, sex differences in prevalence may reflect exposure rather than transmission, which could affect disease control programmes. One potential example is chronic wasting disease (CWD), which has been observed at greater prevalence among male than female deer. We used an age- and sex-structured simulation model to explore harvest-based management of CWD under three different transmission scenarios that all generate higher male prevalence: (1) increased male susceptibility, (2) high male-to-male transmission or (3) high female-to-male transmission. Both female and male harvests were required to limit CWD epidemics across all transmission scenarios (approximated by R 0 ), though invasion was more likely under high female-to-male transmission. In simulations, heavily male-biased harvests controlled CWD epidemics and maintained large host populations under high male-to-male transmission and increased male susceptibility scenarios. However, male-biased harvests were ineffective under high female-to-male transmission. Instead, female-biased harvests were able to limit disease transmission under high female-to-male transmission but incurred a trade-off with smaller population sizes. Synthesis and applications . Higher disease prevalence in a sex or age group may be due to higher exposure or susceptibility but does not necessarily indicate if that group is responsible for more disease transmission. We showed that multiple processes can result in the pattern of higher male prevalence, but that population-level management interventions must focus on the sex responsible for disease transmission, not just those that are most exposed.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2023

Identifying demographic and environmental drivers of population dynamics and viability in an endangered top predator using an integrated model

Knowledge about the demographic and environmental factors underlying population dynamics is fundamental to designing effective conservation measures to recover depleted wildlife populations. However, sparse monitoring data or persistent knowledge gaps about threats make it difficult to identify the drivers of population dynamics. In situations where small, declining, or depleted populations show continued evidence of decline for unknown reasons, integrated population models can make efficient use of available data to improve our understanding of demography, provide fundamental insights into factors that may be limiting recovery, and support conservation decisions. We used mark-resight and aerial survey data from 2004 to 2018 to build a Bayesian integrated population model for the Cook Inlet population of beluga whales ( Delphinapterus leucas ), which is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We examined the effects of prey availability and oceanographic conditions on beluga vital rates and conducted a population viability analysis to predict extinction risk across a range of hypothetical changes in beluga survival and reproduction. Our results indicated that while the survival of breeding females (0.97; 95% CI: 0.95–0.99) and young calves (0.92; 0.80–0.98) was relatively high, the survival of nonbreeders (0.94; 0.91–0.97) and fecundity (0.28; 0.22–0.36) may be depressed. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that the population will likely continue to decline, with a 17–32% probability of extinction in 150 years. Our model highlights the utility of integrated population modeling for maximizing the usefulness of available data and identifying factors contributing to the failure of protected populations to recover. This framework can be used to evaluate proposed conservation and recovery efforts for this and other endangered species.

Animal Conservation↗
USGS2020

Intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of life-history variability for a south-western cutthroat trout

The impacts of climate change on cold-water fishes will likely negatively manifest in populations at the trailing edge of their distributions. Rio Grande cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis , RGCT) occupy arid south-western U.S. streams at the southern-most edge of all cutthroat trout distributions, making RGCT particularly vulnerable to the anticipated warming and drying in this region. We hypothesised that RGCT possess a portfolio of life-history traits that aid in their persistence within streams of varying temperature and stream drying conditions. We used otolith and multistate capture–mark–recapture data to determine how these environmental constraints influence life-history trait expression (length- and age-at-maturity) and demography in RGCT populations from northern New Mexico, United States. We found evidence that RGCT reached maturity fastest at sites with warm stream temperatures and low densities. We did not find a strong relationship between discharge and any demographic rate, although apparent survival of mature RGCT decreased as stream temperature increased. Our study suggests plasticity in trait expression may be a life-history characteristic which can assist trailing edge populations like RGCT persist in a changing climate.

New Mexico↗
USGS2020

Nowhere to hide: The importance of instream cover for stream‐living Coastal Cutthroat Trout during seasonal low flow

Through their multiple functions, refuges may be important for stream‐living fishes, particularly during stressful events such as seasonal low flow or drought. Coastal Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii is an ideal study organism to understand the importance of refuge. During seasonal low flow, lower water levels limit access to refuge and emigration, survival of fish is low, and predation risk is high. Under these conditions, we studied patterns of cover use from field observations and tested predictions from multiple hypotheses about cover use in a semi‐natural experiment. Boulders were the main cover selected by trout in natural streams. Trout disproportionately used cover near deeper water, and they selected larger‐sized cover in shallower water. Trout showed plasticity to switch among behaviours, concealing under cover and emigrating as first options, followed by grouping, and then habitat shifting. Lack of feeding and growth suggested that perceived threat of predation was a more important driver of behaviour than foraging. Emigration was also linked to cover, with higher levels of emigration associated with less cover availability, revealing a potential link between refuge and demography through emigration. Except for feeding, the intensity of alternative behaviours can increase or decrease depending on refuge availability. Collectively, findings of this work indicate that cover can be considered a critical limiting resource along with other fundamental resources of food and space for stream‐living fish.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish↗
USGS2020

Forest responses to last-millennium hydroclimate variability are governed by spatial variations in ecosystem sensitivity

Forecasts of future forest change are governed by ecosystem sensitivity to climate change, but ecosystem model projections are under-constrained by data at multidecadal and longer timescales. Here, we quantify ecosystem sensitivity to centennial-scale hydroclimate variability, by comparing dendroclimatic and pollen-inferred reconstructions of drought, forest composition and biomass for the last millennium with five ecosystem model simulations. In both observations and models, spatial patterns in ecosystem responses to hydroclimate variability are strongly governed by ecosystem sensitivity rather than climate exposure. Ecosystem sensitivity was higher in models than observations and highest in simpler models. Model-data comparisons suggest that interactions among biodiversity, demography and ecophysiology processes dampen the sensitivity of forest composition and biomass to climate variability and change. Integrating ecosystem models with observations from timescales extending beyond the instrumental record can better understand and forecast the mechanisms regulating forest sensitivity to climate variability in a complex and changing world.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2016

The conservation genetics juggling act: Integrating genetics and ecology, science and policy

The field of conservation genetics, when properly implemented, is a constant juggling act integrating molecular genetics, ecology, and demography with applied aspects concerning managing declining species or implementing conservation laws and policies. This young field has grown substantially since the 1980’s following development of the polymerase chain reaction and now into the genomics era. Our lab has “grown up” with the field, having worked on these issues for over three decades. Our multi-disciplinary approach entails understanding the behavior and ecology of species as well as the underlying processes that contribute to genetic viability. Taking this holistic approach provides a comprehensive understanding of factors that influence species persistence and evolutionary potential while considering annual challenges that occur throughout their life cycle. As a federal lab, we are often addressing the needs of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in their efforts to list, de-list or recover species. Nevertheless, there remains an overall communication gap between research geneticists and biologists who are charged with implementing their results. Therefore, we outline the need for a National Center for Small Population Biology to ameliorate this problem and provide organizations charged with making status decisions firmer ground from which to make their critical decisions.

Evolutionary Applications↗
USGS2017

Population dynamics of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Spruce Creek Pennsylvania: A quarter-century perspective

We examined the relationship between density-independent and density-dependent factors on the demography of a dense, relatively unexploited population of brown trout in Spruce Creek Pennsylvania between 1985 and 2011. Individual PCAs of flow and temperature data elucidated groups of years with multiple high flow versus multiple low flow characteristics and high versus low temperature years, although subtler patterns of variation also were observed. Density and biomass displayed similar temporal patterns, ranging from 710 to 1,803 trout/ha and 76–263 kg/ha. We detected a significantly negative linear stock-recruitment relationship ( R 2 = .39) and there was no evidence that flow or water temperature affected recruitment. Both annual survival and the per-capita rate of increase ( r ) for the population varied over the study, and density-dependent mechanisms possessed the greatest explanatory power for annual survival data. Temporal trends in population r suggested it displayed a bounded equilibrium with increases observed in 12 years and decreases detected in 13 years. Model selection analysis of per-capita rate of increase data for age 1, and adults ( N = eight interpretable models) indicated that both density-dependent (five of eight) and negative density-independent processes (five of eight, i.e. high flows or temperatures), affected r . Recruitment limitation also was identified in three of eight models. Variation in the per-capita rate of increase for the population was most strongly affected by positive density independence in the form of increasing spring–summer temperatures and recruitment limitation. Model selection analyses describing annual variation in both mean length and mass data yielded similar results, although maximum w i values were low ranging from 0.09 to 0.23 (length) and 0.13 to 0.22 (mass). Density-dependence was included in 15 of 15 interpretable models for length and all ten interpretable models for mass. Similarly, positive density-independent effects in the form of increasing autumn–winter flow were present in seven of 15 interpretable models for length and five of ten interpretable models for mass. Negative density independent effects also were observed in the form of high spring–summer flows or temperatures ( N = 4), or high autumn–winter temperatures ( N = 1). Our analyses of the factors affecting population regulation in an introduced population of brown trout demonstrate that density-dependent forces affected every important demographic characteristic (recruitment, survivorship, the rate of increase, and size) within this population. However, density-independent forces in the form of seasonal variations in flow and temperature also helped explain annual variation in the per-capita rate of increase, and mean length and mass data. Consequently, population regulation within this population is driven by a complex of biotic and environmental factors, although it seems clear that density-dependent factors play a dominant role.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2020

Behavior at short temporal scales drives dispersal dynamics and survival in a metapopulation of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis)

1) Movement has been studied extensively in stream salmonids, and most data suggest that population-level behavior is best described by a leptokurtic distribution. This distribution emphasizes the large proportion of sedentary individuals in a population, which can implicitly lead to assumptions of low population connectivity and overlook the ecological significance of rare individuals with more mobile phenotypes. 2) We report findings of a multi-season radio telemetry study conducted on four adjacent populations of wild brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) connected by Loyalsock Creek in northcentral Pennsylvania. We used these data to investigate temporal and spatial patterns in movement and fitness tradeoffs associated with behavioral phenotype. 3) Similar to previous studies, we found that 59 of the 120 radio-tagged individuals (49%) were sedentary and moved less than 200 m. Only 18% of individuals dispersed more than 1 km, but the maximum distanced moved exceeded 13 km. We also found that mobile individuals had significantly higher summer and fall survival than did sedentary fish, which could indicate that there are fitness benefits associated with vagility. 4) Most long-distance movements were the result of fish migrating from small tributaries into a larger mainstem river in the days after spawning. Therefore, even though mobility was only expressed for a short duration and by relatively few individuals in the population, the behavior appears to maintain metapopulation connectivity throughout the watershed. 5) Our study highlights the ecological significance of rare phenotypes for population demography across large spatial scales and the need to understand movement across multiple temporal and spatial scales to ensure adequate conservation of critical forms of cryptic life history diversity.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2013

Projecting demographic responses to climate change: adult and juvenile survival respond differently to direct and indirect effects of weather in a passerine population

Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long-term mark-recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12-17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4-6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and postfledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct, and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can, in turn, inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent.

California↗
USGS2014

Mountain landscapes offer few opportunities for high-elevation tree species migration

Climate change is anticipated to alter plant species distributions. Regional context, notably the spatial complexity of climatic gradients, may influence species migration potential. While high-elevation species may benefit from steep climate gradients in mountain regions, their persistence may be threatened by limited suitable habitat as land area decreases with elevation. To untangle these apparently contradictory predictions for mountainous regions, we evaluated the climatic suitability of four coniferous forest tree species of the western United States based on species distribution modeling (SDM) and examined changes in climatically suitable areas under predicted climate change. We used forest structural information relating to tree species dominance, productivity, and demography from an extensive forest inventory system to assess the strength of inferences made with a SDM approach. We found that tree species dominance, productivity, and recruitment were highest where climatic suitability (i.e., probability of species occurrence under certain climate conditions) was high, supporting the use of predicted climatic suitability in examining species risk to climate change. By predicting changes in climatic suitability over the next century, we found that climatic suitability will likely decline, both in areas currently occupied by each tree species and in nearby unoccupied areas to which species might migrate in the future. These trends were most dramatic for high elevation species. Climatic changes predicted over the next century will dramatically reduce climatically suitable areas for high-elevation tree species while a lower elevation species, Pinus ponderosa, will be well positioned to shift upslope across the region. Reductions in suitable area for high-elevation species imply that even unlimited migration would be insufficient to offset predicted habitat loss, underscoring the vulnerability of these high-elevation species to climatic changes.

Arizona;California;Colorado;Idaho;Kansas;Montana;N↗
USGS2017

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2020

Potential changes to the biology and challenges to the management of invasive sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus in the Laurentian Great Lakes due to climate change

Control programs are implemented to mitigate the damage caused by invasive species worldwide. In the highly invaded Great Lakes, the climate is expected to become warmer with more extreme weather and variable precipitation, resulting in shorter iced‐over periods and variable tributary flows as well as changes to pH and river hydrology and hydrogeomorphology. We review how climate change influences physiology, behavior, and demography of a damaging invasive species, sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ), in the Great Lakes, and the consequences for sea lamprey control efforts. Sea lamprey control relies on surveys to monitor abundance of larval sea lamprey in Great Lakes tributaries. The abundance of parasitic, juvenile sea lampreys in the lakes is calculated by surveying wounding rates on lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ), and trap surveys are used to enumerate adult spawning runs. Chemical control using lampricides (i.e., lamprey pesticides) to target larval sea lamprey and barriers to prevent adult lamprey from reaching spawning grounds are the most important tools used for sea lamprey population control. We describe how climate change could affect larval survival in rivers, growth and maturation in lakes, phenology and the spawning migration as adults return to rivers, and the overall abundance and distribution of sea lamprey in the Great Lakes. Our review suggests that Great Lakes sea lamprey may benefit from climate change with longer growing seasons, more rapid growth, and greater access to spawning habitat, but uncertainties remain about the future availability and suitability of larval habitats. Consideration of the biology of invasive species and adaptation of the timing, intensity, and frequency of control efforts is critical to the management of biological invasions in a changing world, such as sea lamprey in the Great Lakes.

Great Lakes↗