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Results for “Regional Environmental Change”

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At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources

USGS1999

Change analysis in the United Arab Emirates: An investigation of techniques

Much of the landscape of the United Arab Emirates has been transformed over the past 15 years by massive afforestation, beautification, and agricultural programs. The "greening" of the United Arab Emirates has had environmental consequences, however, including degraded groundwater quality and possible damage to natural regional ecosystems. Personnel from the Ground- Water Research project, a joint effort between the National Drilling Company of the Abu Dhabi Emirate and the U.S. Geological Survey, were interested in studying landscape change in the Abu Dhabi Emirate using Landsat thematic mapper (TM) data. The EROs Data Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota was asked to investigate land-cover change techniques that (1) provided locational, quantitative, and qualitative information on landcover change within the Abu Dhabi Emirate; and (2) could be easily implemented by project personnel who were relatively inexperienced in remote sensing. A number of products were created with 1987 and 1996 Landsat TM data using change-detection techniques, including univariate image differencing, an "enhanced" image differencing, vegetation index differencing, post-classification differencing, and changevector analysis. The different techniques provided products that varied in levels of adequacy according to the specific application and the ease of implementation and interpretation. Specific quantitative values of change were most accurately and easily provided by the enhanced image-differencing technique, while the change-vector analysis excelled at providing rich qualitative detail about the nature of a change.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗

USGS2020

Genetic and environmental indicators of climate change vulnerability for desert bighorn sheep

Assessments of organisms’ vulnerability to potential climatic shifts are increasingly common. Such assessments are often conducted at the species level and focused primarily on the magnitude of anticipated climate change (i.e., climate exposure). However, wildlife management would benefit from population-level assessments that also incorporate measures of local or regional potential for organismal adaptation to change. Estimates of genetic diversity, gene flow, and landscape connectivity can address this need and complement climate exposure estimates to establish management priorities at broad to local scales. We provide an example of this holistic approach for desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis nelsoni ) within and surrounding lands administered by the U.S. National Park Service. We used genetic and environmental data from 62 populations across the southwestern U.S. to delineate genetic structure, evaluate relationships between genetic diversity and isolation, and estimate relative climate vulnerability for populations as a function of five variables associated with species’ responses to climate change: genetic diversity, genetic isolation, geographic isolation, forward climate velocity within a population’s habitat patch (a measure of geographic movement rate required for an organism to maintain constant climate conditions), and maximum elevation within the habitat patch (a measure of current climate stress, as lower maximum elevation is associated with higher temperature, lower precipitation, and lower population persistence). Genetic structure analyses revealed a high-level division between populations in southeastern Utah and populations in the remainder of the study area, which were further differentiated into four lower-level genetic clusters. Genetic diversity decreased with population isolation, whereas genetic differentiation increased, but these patterns were stronger for native populations than for translocated populations. Populations exhibited large variation in predicted vulnerability across the study area with respect to all variables, but native populations occupying relatively intact landscapes, such as Death Valley and Grand Canyon national parks, had the lowest overall vulnerability. These results provide local and regional context for conservation and management decisions regarding bighorn populations in a changing climate. Our study further demonstrates how assessments combining multiple factors could allow a more integrated response, such as increasing efforts to maintain connectivity and thus potential for adaptation in areas experiencing rapid climate change.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS2018

Evidence that climate sets the lower elevation range limit in a high‐elevation endemic salamander

A frequent assumption in ecology is that biotic interactions are more important than abiotic factors in determining lower elevational range limits (i.e., the “warm edge” of a species distribution). However, for species with narrow environmental tolerances, theory suggests the presence of a strong environmental gradient can lead to persistence, even in the presence of competition. The relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors is rarely considered together, although understanding when one exerts a dominant influence on controlling range limits may be crucial to predicting extinction risk under future climate conditions. We sampled multiple transects spanning the elevational range limit of Plethodon shenandoah and site and climate covariates were recorded. A two‐species conditional occupancy model, accommodating heterogeneity in detection probability, was used to relate variation in occupancy with environmental and habitat conditions. Regional climate data were combined with datalogger observations to estimate the cloud base heights and to project future climate change impacts on cloud elevations across the survey area. By simultaneously accounting for species’ interactions and habitat variables, we find that elevation, not competition, is strongly correlated with the lower elevation range boundary, which had been presumed to be restricted mainly as a result of competitive interactions with a congener. Because the lower elevational range limit is sensitive to climate variables, projected climate change across its high‐elevation habitats will directly affect the species’ distribution. Testing assumptions of factors that set species range limits should use models which accommodate detection biases.

Virginia↗

USGS2023

Seasonal habitat utilization provides evidence for site fidelity during both spawn and non-spawning seasons in Lake Ontario cisco Coregonus artedi

The Lake Ontario cisco Coregonus artedi population declined in the 20th century, and restoration of this species is a management objective. Management tools to restore cisco are limited because little is known about cisco spawning behavior and habitat use. We tagged 76 cisco from a remnant population in Chaumont Bay, Lake Ontario with acoustic transmitters and characterized seasonal habitat use from 2016 to 2021. We also used fine-scale acoustic telemetry, coregonine egg collections, and trap net catches to better understand cisco spawning behaviors related to spawn timing and site selection. Network analysis and Bayesian standard ellipse area indicated that cisco utilization of lake regions and bathythermal niche space varied by season. During spawning season, male cisco concentrated in Chaumont Bay over shallow (∼3 m) rocky shoals where cisco egg deposition was the greatest. Spawning site fidelity to Chaumont Bay was observed for all male cisco surviving to successive years (n = 23). Acoustic-tagged females did not survive consecutive spawning seasons, but trap net catches indicated females were less abundant and occupied spawning areas for less time than males. Post spawn, some individual male cisco (n = 5/23) had differential, yet consistent, annual migrations to separate regions of Lake Ontario, suggesting fidelity to feeding sites. Our results reveal seasonal habitats used by male cisco and, importantly, caution that environmental changes to a single spawning site could negatively affect the remnant Chaumont Bay cisco population. Specialized conservation efforts may be necessary when cisco spawning aggregations have diverse post-spawn migratory behaviors but a central spawning ground.

Chaumont Bay, Lake Ontario↗

USGS2015

Life-history tradeoffs and reproductive cycles in Spotted Owls

The study of tradeoffs among life-history traits has long been key to understanding the evolution of life-history strategies. However, more recently, evolutionary ecologists have realized that reproductive costs have the potential to influence population dynamics. Here, we tested for costs of reproduction in the California Spotted Owl ( Strix occidentalis occidentalis ), and assessed whether costs of reproduction in year t − 1 on reproduction in year t could be responsible for regionally synchronized biennial cycles in reproductive output. Logistic regression analysis and multistate mark–recapture models with state uncertainty revealed that breeding reduced the likelihood of reproducing in the subsequent year by 16% to 38%, but had no influence on subsequent survival. We also found that costs of reproduction in year t − 1 were correlated with climatic conditions in year t , with evidence of higher costs during the dry phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Using a simulation-based population model, we showed that strong reproductive costs had the potential to create biennial cycles in population-level reproductive output; however, estimated costs of reproduction appeared to be too small to explain patterns observed in Spotted Owls. In the absence of strong reproductive costs, we hypothesize that observed natural cycles in the reproductive output of Spotted Owls are related to as-yet-unmeasured, regionally concordant fluctuations in environmental conditions or prey resources. Despite theoretical evidence for demographic effects, our analyses illustrate that linking tradeoffs to actual changes in population processes will be challenging because of the potential confounding effects of individual and environmental variation.

The Auk↗

USGS2012

Short seed longevity, variable germination conditions, and infrequent establishment events provide a narrow window for Yucca brevifolia (Agavaceae) recruitment

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: The future of long-lived stand-forming desert plants such as Yucca brevifolia (Joshua tree) has come into question in light of climate variation and landscape-scale disturbances such as wildfire. Understanding plant establishment dynamics is important for mitigating the impacts of disturbances and promoting revegetation. • METHODS: We placed Y. brevifolia seeds in shallow caches and manipulated granivore access, nurse shrub effects, and the season of cache placement to determine conditions for seed germination and seedling establishment. • KEY RESULTS: Greatest seedling emergence occurred during spring and summer, when increased soil moisture was accompanied by warm soil temperatures. Late winter-spring emergence for cached seeds was enhanced beneath shrub canopies, but seedling survival declined beneath shrubs as temperatures increased in spring. Germinability of seed remaining in the soil was reduced from 50-68% after 12 mo residence time in soil and declined to <3% after 40 mo. Following dispersal from parent plants, seeds are either removed by granivores or lose germinability, imposing substantial losses of potential germinants. • CONCLUSIONS: Specific germination and establishment requirements impose stringent limits on recruitment rates for Y. brevifolia. Coupled with infrequent seed availability, the return rates to prefire densities and demographic structure may require decades to centuries, especially in light of potential changes to regional desert climate in combination with the potential for fire recurrence. Demographic patterns are predicted to vary spatially in response to environmental variability that limits recruitment and may already be apparent among extant populations.

American Journal of Botany↗

USGS2002

Environmental variation, vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics and water/energy exchange at high latitudes

The responses of high latitude ecosystems to global change involve complex interactions among environmental variables, vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water and energy exchange. These responses may have important consequences for the earth system. In this study, we evaluated how vegetation distribution, carbon stocks and turnover, and water and energy exchange are related to environmental variation spanned by the network of the IGBP high latitude transects. While the most notable feature of the high latitude transects is that they generally span temperature gradients from southern to northern latitudes, there are substantial differences in temperature among the transects. Also, along each transect temperature co-varies with precipitation and photosynthetically active radiation, which are also variable among the transects. Both climate and disturbance interact to influence latitudinal patterns of vegetation and soil carbon storage among the transects, and vegetation distribution appears to interact with climate to determine exchanges of heat and moisture in high latitudes. Despite limitations imposed by the data we assembled, the analyses in this study have taken an important step toward clarifying the complexity of interactions among environmental variables, vegetation distribution, carbon stocks and turnover, and water and energy exchange in high latitude regions. This study reveals the need to conduct coordinated global change studies in high latitudes to further elucidate how interactions among climate, disturbance, and vegetation distribution influence carbon dynamics and water and energy exchange in high latitudes.

Journal of Vegetation Science↗

USGS2018

Sensitivity of streamflow to climate change in California

Climate change is rapidly altering the global water cycle, exposing vulnerabilities in both social and environmental systems. However, uncertainty in future climate predictions makes it difficult to design and evaluate strategies for building climate resilience. In regions such as California, characterized by stressed water-supply systems, high natural climate variability, and substantial uncertainty in future precipitation projections, alternative approaches to assessing climate risks may be useful. Here, we develop a hydrologic sensitivity approach to estimate regional streamflow responses to climate change in California. We use statistical models to predict monthly streamflow from physical catchment features and evaluate how flow changes with incremental changes in precipitation and temperature. The results indicate unique regional and monthly flow responses to climate change, with early summer flows (May - July) in interior mountain region having the greatest sensitivity to temperature and winter flow (December - March) in the xeric region having the greatest sensitivity to precipitation. When evaluated over the range of global climate model projections for mid-century (2040-2069), models generally suggest shifts in streamflow regimes towards higher wet season flows and lower dry season flows relative to historical conditions. The sensitivity analysis provides insight into catchment- and regional-scale hydrologic responses in California and complements other approaches for understanding the consequences of climatic change for water and risk management.

California↗

USGS2010

Prairie wetland complexes as landscape functional units in a changing climate

The wetland complex is the functional ecological unit of the prairie pothole region (PPR) of central North America. Diverse complexes of wetlands contribute high spatial and temporal environmental heterogeneity, productivity, and biodiversity to these glaciated prairie landscapes. Climatewarming simulations using the new model WETLANDSCAPE (WLS) project major reductions in water volume, shortening of hydroperiods, and less-dynamic vegetation for prairie wetland complexes. The WLS model portrays the future PPR as a much less resilient ecosystem: The western PPR will be too dry and the eastern PPR will have too few functional wetlands and nesting habitat to support historic levels of waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. Maintaining ecosystem goods and services at current levels in a warmer climate will be a major challenge for the conservation community.

BioScience↗

USGS2026

Bee-ing similar: Low diversity, no population structure, and signals of adaptation in two North Dakota bumble bees

Habitat fragmentation and destruction are driving widespread declines in ecosystem function, species abundance, and genetic diversity across the globe. Among the affected taxa are bumble bees (genus Bombus ), which are essential pollinators. Bumble bee declines have been linked to anthropogenic pressures such as land-use change and climate change. To better understand how the environment is shaping bumble bee populations, we employed a landscape genetics approach to examine the genetic diversity, population structure, and potential local adaptation of two widespread species— Bombus ternarius and Bombus griseocollis —across North Dakota. From 2017–2020, 161 B. ternarius and 200 B. griseocollis bumble bees were sampled in ND across 13 and 17 sites, respectively. We found low levels of heterozygosity and inbreeding across all populations for both species, with no evidence of population structure or isolation by distance. Our results revealed signatures of potential local adaptation to climatic variables and land cover characteristics, suggesting that our species are adapted to environmental gradients across the state. Having similar results between both species across all analyses suggests that other wide-ranging bumble bees in the region may share these patterns. High connectivity can buffer short-term population losses, but low genetic diversity may constrain adaptive potential and reduce resilience to future environmental change and emerging threats. Our findings have broad applicability to other pollinators and taxa facing similar environmental pressures. Both species have populations that continually exchange genes creating widespread connectivity but are still locally shaped by adaptation.

North Dakota↗

USGS2025

Climate change impacts on plant communities in the sagebrush region—A science synthesis to inform Bureau of Land Management resource management

This report synthesizes current (2024) science-based knowledge related to the impacts of climate change on big sagebrush vegetation in Western North America. This effort was conducted through the U.S. Geological Survey working with the Bureau of Land Management as part of multiple science syntheses to aid management agencies developing environmental impacts assessments in response to human-related or caused events. This report reviews the potential impacts climate change may have on sagebrush vegetation and related management decisions. The body of the synthesis introduces the diverse impacts of climate change across the region by first focusing directly on what climate change may entail in terms of altered temperature and precipitation patterns. The report then discusses how these changes could likely affect individual plant species based on experimental results and scale the impacts to species distributions and community composition. The synthesis section ends by surveying efforts to model potential future changes in habitat. The report goes on to link the synthesis conclusions to individual land uses or land management decisions, such as forage resources, restoration or fuel treatment. Finally, the report provides a section that discusses the pros and cons of available datasets that model the potential future of vegetation in the sagebrush region.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

USGS2010

Regional climate change-Science in the Southeast

Resource managers are at the forefront of a new era of management. They must consider the potential impacts of climate change on the Nation's resources and proactively develop strategies for dealing with those impacts on plants, animals, and ecosystems. This requires rigorous, scientific understanding of environmental change. The role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in this effort is to analyze climate-change data and develop tools for assessing how changing conditions are likely to impact resources. This information will assist Federal, State, local, and tribal partners manage resources strategically. The 2008 Omnibus Budget Act and Secretarial Order 3289 established a new network of eight Department of Interior Regional Climate Science Centers to provide technical support for resource managers. The Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) is the first regional assessment to be funded by the USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (http://nccw.usgs.gov/). The USGS is working closely with the developing Department of Interior Landscape Conservation Cooperatives to ensure that the project will meet the needs of resource managers in the Southeast. In addition, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is providing resources to the SERAP to expand the scope of the project.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2017

Population genetic structure and gene flow of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding throughout the western Antarctic Peninsula

Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae ) are responding to ocean–climate variability throughout the marine ecosystem of the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) where some breeding colonies have declined by 80%. Nuclear and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers were used to understand historical population genetic structure and gene flow given relatively recent and continuing reductions in sea ice habitats and changes in numbers of breeding adults at colonies throughout the WAP. Genetic diversity, spatial genetic structure, genetic signatures of fluctuations in population demography and gene flow were assessed in four regional Adélie penguin colonies. The analyses indicated little genetic structure overall based on bi-parentally inherited microsatellite markers ( F ST =-0.006–0.004). No significant variance was observed in overall haplotype frequency (mtDNA Φ ST =0.017; P =0.112). Some comparisons with Charcot Island were significant, suggestive of female-biased philopatry. Estimates of gene flow based on a two-population coalescent model were asymmetrical from the species’ regional core to its northern range. Breeding Adélie penguins of the WAP are a panmictic population and hold adequate genetic diversity and dispersal capacity to be resilient to environmental change.

Antarctic Science↗

USGS2013

Shallow geology, seafloor texture, and physiographic zones of the Inner Continental Shelf from Nahant to northern Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts

The Massachusetts inner continental shelf between Nahant and northern Cape Cod Bay has been profoundly affected by the occupation and retreat of glacial ice sheets and relative sea-level change during the Quaternary. Marine geologic mapping of this area is a component of a statewide cooperative effort involving the U.S. Geological Survey and the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management. Interpretation of high-resolution geophysical data (interferometric and multibeam swath bathymetry, lidar, backscatter, and seismic reflection), sediment samples, and bottom photographs was used to produce a series of maps that describe the distribution and texture of seafloor sediments, shallow geologic framework, and physiographic zones of this inner-shelf region. These data and interpretations are intended to aid efforts to inventory and manage coastal and marine resources, and provide baseline information for research focused on coastal evolution and environmental change.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2021

A greener future for the Galapagos: Forecasting ecosystem productivity by finding climate analogs in time

Forecasting ecosystem response to climate change is critical for guiding policymaking but challenging due to: complicated relationships between microclimates and regional climates; species’ responses that are driven by extremes rather than averages; the multifaceted nature of species’ interactions; and the lack of historical analogs to future climates. Given these challenges, even model systems such as the Galapagos Islands, a world-famous biodiversity hotspot and World Heritage Site, lack clear forecasts for future environmental change. Here, we developed a novel nonparametric method for simulating the ecosystem futures based on observed vegetation productivity (NDVI) during analogous weather observed historically. Using satellite images taken from the past to piece together a simulated future, we projected that productivity of terrestrial vegetation of the Galapagos will increase over the next century by approximately one standard deviation archipelago-wide, with largest increases during the wet season (January to June) and in the arid zones. Such greening would impact a variety of ecological and evolutionary processes, species of conservation concern, and agricultural practices. Our straightforward approach can be applied to many other regions, particularly those with rapid ecosystem responses to stochastic inter-annual climatic fluctuations that provide appropriate climate analogs for forecasting.

Galápagos Islands↗

USGS2018

The rise of pinnacle reefs: Islands of diversity in seas of despair

Pinnacle reef tracts are geomorphic features of carbonate systems that originated in the early Silurian and display an episodic distribution into the Cenozoic. Detailed study of Silurian pinnacle reefs of the United States midcontinent demonstrates repeated motifs, but most enigmatic is the coincidence of carbonate carbon isotope (δ 13 C carb ) excursions and reef pulses. Silurian δ 13 C carb excursions were associated with environmental changes and extinctions, and reefs appear to mark a resurgence of conditions favorable to biomineralizers following those extinction events. Previous workers in the region identified six discrete reef origination events in the United States midcontinent during the Silurian. Our reevaluation of outcrops and cores, conodont collections, and the generation of considerable new chemostratigraphic data across the region are clarifying the age relations of these events and their relationships to perturbations of the global carbon cycle.

Book chapter↗

USGS2009

Land-Cover Change in the East Central Texas Plains, 1973-2000

Project Background: The Geographic Analysis and Monitoring (GAM) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover Trends project is focused on understanding the rates, trends, causes, and consequences of contemporary U.S. land-use and land-cover change. The objectives of the study are to: (1) develop a comprehensive methodology for using sampling and change analysis techniques and Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and Thematic Mapper (TM) data for measuring regional land-cover change across the United States, (2) characterize the types, rates and temporal variability of change for a 30-year period, (3) document regional driving forces and consequences of change, and (4) prepare a national synthesis of land-cover change (Loveland and others, 1999). Using the 1999 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Level III ecoregions derived from Omernik (1987) as the geographic framework, geospatial data collected between 1973 and 2000 were processed and analyzed to characterize ecosystem responses to land-use changes. The 27-year study period was divided into five temporal periods: 1973-1980, 1980-1986, 1986-1992, 1992-2000, and 1973-2000. General land-cover classes such as water, developed, grassland/shrubland, and agriculture for these periods were interpreted from Landsat MSS, TM, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery to categorize land-cover change and evaluate using a modified Anderson Land-Use Land-Cover Classification System for image interpretation. The interpretation of these land-cover classes complement the program objective of looking at land-use change with cover serving as a surrogate for land use. The land-cover change rates are estimated using a stratified, random sampling of 10-kilometer (km) by 10-km blocks allocated within each ecoregion. For each sample block, satellite images are used to interpret land-cover change for the five time periods previously mentioned. Additionally, historical aerial photographs from similar timeframes and other ancillary data such as census statistics and published literature are used. The sample block data are then incorporated into statistical analyses to generate an overall change matrix for the ecoregion. For example, the scalar statistics can show the spatial extent of change per cover type with time, as well as the land-cover transformations from one land-cover type to another type occurring with time. Field data of the sample blocks include direct measurements of land cover, particularly ground-survey data collected for training and validation of image classifications (Loveland and others, 2002). The field experience allows for additional observations of the character and condition of the landscape, assistance in sample block interpretation, ground truthing of Landsat imagery, and helps determine the driving forces of change identified in an ecoregion. Management and maintenance of field data, beyond initial use for training and validation of image classifications, is important as improved methods for image classification are developed, and as present-day data become part of the historical legacy for which studies of land-cover change in the future will depend (Loveland and others, 2002). The results illustrate that there is no single profile of land-cover change; instead, there is significant geographic variability that results from land uses within ecoregions continuously adapting to the resource potential created by various environmental, technological, and socioeconomic factors.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2009

Land Cover Change in the Boston Mountains, 1973-2000

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover Trends project is focused on understanding the rates, trends, causes, and consequences of contemporary U.S. land-cover change. The objectives of the study are to: (1) to develop a comprehensive methodology for using sampling and change analysis techniques and Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS), Thematic Mapper (TM), and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) data to measure regional land-cover change across the United States; (2) to characterize the types, rates, and temporal variability of change for a 30-year period; (3) to document regional driving forces and consequences of change; and (4) to prepare a national synthesis of land-cover change (Loveland and others, 1999). The 1999 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Level III ecoregions derived from Omernik (1987) provide the geographic framework for the geospatial data collected between 1973 and 2000. The 27-year study period was divided into five temporal periods: 1973-1980, 1980-1986, 1986-1992, 1992-2000, and 1973-2000, and the data are evaluated using a modified Anderson Land Use Land Cover Classification System (Anderson and others, 1976) for image interpretation. The rates of land-cover change are estimated using a stratified, random sampling of 10-kilometer (km) by 10-km blocks allocated within each ecoregion. For each sample block, satellite images are used to interpret land-cover change for the five time periods previously mentioned. Additionally, historic aerial photographs from similar time frames and other ancillary data, such as census statistics and published literature, are used. The sample block data are then incorporated into statistical analyses to generate an overall change matrix for the ecoregion. Field data of the sample blocks include direct measurements of land cover, particularly ground-survey data collected for training and validation of image classifications (Loveland and others, 2002). The field experience allows for additional observations of the character and condition of the landscape, assistance in sample block interpretation, ground truthing of Landsat imagery, and determination of the driving forces of change identified in an ecoregion.

Open-File Report↗