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Salinity yield modeling of the Upper Colorado River Basin using 30-meter resolution soil maps and random forests

Salinity loading in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) costs local economies upwards of $300 million US dollars annually. Salinity source models have generally included coarse spatial data to represent non‐agriculture sources. We developed new predictive soil property and cover maps at 30 m resolution to improve source representation in salinity modeling. Salinity loading erosion risk indices were also created based on soil properties, remotely sensed bare ground exposure, and topographic factors to examine potential surface soil erosion drivers. These new maps and data from previous SPARROW models were related to recently updated records of salinity at 309 stream gauges in the UCRB using random forest regressions. Resulting salinity yield predictions indicate more diffuse salinity sources, with slightly higher yields in more arid portions of the UCRB, and less overall load coming from irrigated agricultural sources. Model simulations still indicate irrigation to be the major human source of salinity (661,000 Mg, or 12%), but also suggest that 75,000 Mg (1.4%) of annual salinity in the UCRB is coming from areas with excessive exposed bare ground in high elevation mountain areas. Model inputs allow for field scale screening of locations that could be targeted for salinity control projects. Results confirm recent studies indicating limited surface erosional influence on salinity loading in UCRB surface waters, but impacts of monsoonal runoff events are still not fully understood, particularly in drylands. The study highlights the utility of new predictive soil maps and machine learning for environmental modeling.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming

Relations between basin characteristics and stream water chemistry in alpine/subalpine basins in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

Relations between stream water chemistry and topographic, vegetative, and geologic characteristics of basins were evaluated for nine alpine/subalpine basins in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, to identify controlling parameters and to better understand processes governing patterns in stream water chemistry. Fractional amounts of steep slopes (≥30°), unvegetated terrain, and young surficial debris within each basin were positively correlated to each other. These terrain features, which commonly occur on steep valley side slopes underlain by talus, were negatively correlated with concentrations of base cations, silica, and alkalinity and were positively correlated with nitrate, acidity, and runoff. These relations might result from the short residence times of water and limited soil development in the talus environment, which limit chemical weathering and nitrogen uptake. Steep, unvegetated terrains also tend to promote high Ca/Na ratios in stream water, probably because physical weathering rates in those areas are high. Physical weathering exposes fresh bedrock that contains interstitial calcite, which weathers relatively quickly. The fractional amounts of subalpine meadow and, to a lesser extent, old surficial debris in the basins were positively correlated to concentrations of weathering products and were negatively correlated to nitrate and acidity. These relations may reflect more opportunities for silicate weathering and nitrogen uptake in the lower‐energy environments of the valley floor, where soils are finer‐grained, older, and better developed and slopes are relatively flat. These results indicate that in alpine/subalpine basins, slope, vegetation (or lack thereof), and distribution and age of surficial materials are interrelated and can have major effects on stream water chemistry.

Colorado

A cost-benefit analysis of preventative management for zebra and quagga mussels in the Colorado-Big Thompson System

Zebra and quagga mussels are fresh water invaders that have the potential to cause severe ecological and economic damage. It is estimated that mussels cause $1 billion dollars per year in damages to water infrastructure and industries in the United States (Pimentel et al., 2004). Following their introduction to the Great Lakes in the late 1980s, mussels spread rapidly throughout the Mississippi River Basin and the Eastern U.S. The mussel invasion in the West is young. Mussels were first identified in Nevada in 2007, and have since been identified in California, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, and Texas. Western water systems are very different from those found in the East. The rapid spread of mussels through the eastern system was facilitated by connected and navigable waterways. Western water systems are less connected and are characterized by man-made reservoirs and canals. The main vector of spread for mussels in the West is overland on recreational boats (Bossenbroek et al., 2001). In response to the invasion, many western water managers have implemented preventative management programs to slow the overland spread of mussels on recreational boats. In Colorado, the Colorado Department of Wildlife (CDOW) has implemented a mandatory boat inspection program that requires all trailered boats to be inspected before launching in any Colorado water body. The objective of this study is to analyze the costs and benefits of the CDOW boat inspection program in Colorado, and to identify variables that affect the net benefits of preventative management. Predicting the potential economic benefits of slowing the spread of mussels requires integrating information about mussel dispersal potential with estimates of control costs (Keller et al., 2009). Uncertainty surrounding the probabilities of establishment, the timing of invasions, and the damage costs associated with an invasion make a simulation model an excellent tool for addressing "what if" scenarios and shedding light on the net benefits of preventative management strategies. This study builds a bioeconomic simulation model to predict and compare the expected economic costs of the CDOW boat inspection program ot the benefits of reduced expected control costs to water conveyance systems, hydropower generation stations, and minicipal water treatment facilities. The model is based on a case study water delivery and storage system, the Colorado-Big Thompson system. The Colorado-Big Thomspon system is an excellent example of water systems in the Rocky Mountain West. The system is nearly entirely man-made, with all of its reservoirs and delivery points connected via pipelines, tunnels, and canals. The structures and hydropower systems of the Colorado-Big Thompson system are common to other western storage and delivery systems, making the methods and insight developed from this case study transferal to other western systems. The model developed in this study contributes to the bioeconomic literature in several ways. Foremost, the model predicts the spread of dreissena mussels and associated damage costs for a connected water system in the Rocky Mountain West. Very few zebra mussel studies have focused on western water systems. Another distinguishing factor is the simultaneous consideration of spread from propagules introduced by boats and by flows. Most zebra mussel dispersal models consider boater movement patterns combined with limnological characteristics as predictors of spread. A separate set of studies have addressed mussel spread via downstream flows. To the author's knowledge, this is the first study that builds a zebra mussel spread model that specifically accounts for propagule pressure from boat introductions and from downstream flow introductions. By modeling an entire connected system, the study highlights how the spatial layout of a system, and the risk of invasion within a system affect the benefits of preventative management. This report is presented in five chapters. The first chapter provides background information including a history of the zebra mussel invasion in the U.S. and in the West, and details about the Colorado preventative management program and the Colorado-Big Thompson system. The chapter also includes a literature review of mussel dispersal models and economic studies that address control costs and preventative management for aquatic invasive species. Chapter 2 presents the methodological approach used to analyze the costs and benefits of preventative management in the Colorado-Big Thompson system and provides details of the bioeconomic simulation model used to predict invasion patterns and the net benefits of preventative management. Results of the analysis and sensitivity testing of model parameters are presented in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 provides a summary of the analysis and conclusions. A discussion of the limitations of the model and areas for future research is presented in Chapter 5.

Thesis

An integrated model for the tectonic development of the frontal Brooks Range and Colville Basin 250 km west of the Trans-Alaska Crustal Transect

We present a kinematic model for the sequence of deformation and sedimentation in the frontal Brooks Range and adjacent Colville Basin in the Etivluk River region, 250 km west of the Trans-Alaska Crustal Transect (TACT). The model is based on a tectonic subsidence analysis of the foreland basin, combined with structural, stratigraphic, and thermal studies of the northern edge of the Brooks Range thrust belt. We interpret six discrete tectonic events that led to the present-day configuration of the thrust belt in this area: (1) emplacement of ophiolitic allochthons over the distal continental margin rocks in Valanginian time, hundreds of kilometers south of this study, (2) Hauterivian uplift of the Barrow Arch rift margin, affecting the northern part of the Colville Basin, (3) Barremian contraction involving emplacement of distal continental margin and ophiolitic allochthons onto the Endicott Mountains allochthon and creation of a southward dipping flexural basin on the North Slope autochthon, (4) mid-Cretaceous exhumation of imbricated rocks in the Brooks Range during northward propagation of the thrust front into the foreland, (5) minor thrusting in Late Cretaceous-Paleocene in the northern foreland to the northern limit of contractional structures, and (6) regional exhumation of the orogen and the foreland in Paleocene-Eocene time. This sequence of deformation agrees well with a simple model of a forward propagating thrust system.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Assessing native fish restoration potential in Catoctin Mountain Park

Biological conservation is a fundamental purpose of the National Park system, and Catoctin Mountain Park (CATO) supports high-quality habitat for native fishes in the headwaters of the Chesapeake Bay watershed in eastern North America. However, native Blue Ridge sculpin ( Cottus caeruleomentum ) have been extirpated in Big Hunting Creek above Cunningham Falls in CATO. Prior research indicates that infection by the fungal-like protist Dermocystidium is a likely cause for the extirpation, but elevated stream temperatures also have been observed in the study area, and it remains unknown whether thermal stress may exacerbate infections or otherwise limit habitat suitability for fishes in CATO. The purpose of this study was to quantify spatial variation in summer stream temperatures and to evaluate the effects of temperature on sculpin growth rates and susceptibility to Dermocystidium infection. We used observational and experimental methods to address these objectives. First, we deployed stream temperature gages at 10 sites throughout the study area to assess hourly and daily temperatures during the summer of 2019. Second, we conducted an in situ fish enclosure experiment at five of the temperature sites to assess fish growth and susceptibility to Dermocystidium infection over a 45-day exposure period. For this experiment we collected sculpin from a stream in CATO that supports a robust population of Blue Ridge sculpin (Owens Creek) and held them in quarantine for 50 days in the Experimental Stream Laboratory at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Leetown Science Center. Pre-exposure histopathology confirmed the absence of Dermocystidium infection prior to the introduction of fish into experimental enclosures. We found that stream temperatures were warmer where sculpin have been extirpated than elsewhere in CATO where sculpin persist. However, the fish enclosure experiment revealed a positive effect of temperature on fish growth, suggesting that increased food availability and foraging rates compensated for increased metabolic demands in the warmest sites. Moreover, fish held in enclosures did not develop Dermocystidium infection. Our results therefore suggest that current environmental conditions in upper Big Hunting Creek may be suitable for Blue Ridge sculpin reintroduction, and this could ultimately lead to sportfishing opportunities by increasing the forage base for native brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ).

Maryland

Topographic stress perturbations in southern Davis Mountains, west Texas 1. Polarity reversal of principal stresses

We have applied a previously developed analytical stress model to interpret subsurface stress conditions inferred from acoustic televiewer logs obtained in two municipal water wells located in a valley in the southern Davis Mountains near Alpine, Texas. The appearance of stress-induced breakouts with orientations that shift by 90° at two different depths in one of the wells is explained by results from exact solutions for the effects of valleys on gravity and tectonically induced subsurface stresses. The theoretical results demonstrate that above a reference depth termed the hinge point, a location that is dependent on Poisson's ratio, valley shape, and magnitude of the maximum horizontal tectonic stress normal to the long axis of the valley, horizontal stresses parallel to the valley axis are greater than those normal to it. At depths below this hinge point the situation reverses and horizontal stresses normal to the valley axis are greater than those parallel to it. Application of the theoretical model at Alpine is accommodated by the fact that nearby earthquake focal mechanisms establish an extensional stress regime with the regional maximum horizontal principal stress aligned perpendicular to the valley axis. We conclude that the localized stress field associated with a valley setting can be highly variable and that breakouts need to be examined in this context when estimating the orientations and magnitudes of regional principal stresses.

Texas

The influence of frost weathering on the debris flow sediment supply in an alpine basin

Rocky, alpine mountains are prone to mass wasting from debris flows. The Chalk Cliffs study area (central Colorado, USA) produces debris flows annually. These debris flows are triggered when overland flow driven by intense summer convective storms mobilizes large volumes of sediment within the channel network. Understanding the debris flow hazard in this, and similar alpine settings, requires determining the magnitude of sed- iment accumulation between debris flow seasons, and identifying the control on sediment production. To address these knowledge gaps, we measured changes in sediment produc- tion using a sediment retention fence to quantify how sedimentation was influenced by temperature at the plot scale. These measurements were extrapolated to a larger area, where we extended the sediment fence results to explore how rockfall sedimentation con- tributed to channel refilling between active debris flow periods. This work shows debris flow channel refilling is correlated with low temperatures and time in the frost-cracking window, implicating frost weathering mechanisms as a key driver of sedimentation. This sediment production process resulted in a large amount of sediment accumulation dur- ing a single winter season in our study reach (up to 0.4 m in some locations). Using these observations, we develop a channel refilling model that generally describes the mass bal- ance of debris flow watersheds in alpine areas.

Colorado

Stream‐centric methods for determining groundwater contributions in karst mountain watersheds

Climate change influences on mountain hydrology are uncertain, but likely to be mediated through changes in subsurface hydrologic residence times and flowpaths. The heterogeneity of karst aquifers add complexity in assessing the resiliency of these water sources to perturbation, suggesting a clear need to quantify contributions from and losses to these aquifers. Here we develop a stream centric method that combines mass and flow balances to quantify net and gross gains and losses at different spatial scales. We then extend these methods to differentiate between karst conduit and matrix contributions from the aquifer. In the Logan River watershed in Northern Utah we found significant amounts of the river water repeatedly gained and then lost through a 35 km study reach. Further, the direction and amount of water exchanged varied over space, time, and discharge. Streamflow was dominated by discharge of karst conduit groundwater after runoff with increasing, yet still small, fractions of matrix water later in the summer. These findings were combined with geologic information, prior subsurface dye tracing, and chemical sampling to provide additional lines of evidence that repeated groundwater exchanges are likely occurring and river flows are highly dependent on karst aquifer recharge and discharge. Given the large population dependent on karst aquifers throughout the world, there is a continued need to develop simple methods, like those presented here, for determining the resiliency of karst groundwater resources.

Water Resources Research

Investigation of wind and water level for the Giacomini Wetland Restoration Project, Point Reyes National Seashore

Point Reyes National Seashore (PRNS), comprising unique elements of geological, biological, and historical interest, is located on the central California coast approximately 60 km northwest of San Francisco. The National Seashore contains nearly 130 km of exposed and protected shorelines, spectacular coastal cliffs and headlands, lagoons, open grasslands, bushy hillsides, and forested ridges. Approximately 30 km of the shoreline are coastal-dune habitat that supports 11 federally listed species, including the threatened western snowy plover and the endangered plants Tidestrom's lupine ( Lupinus tidestromii ) and beach layia ( Layia carnosa ). The San Andreas Fault, a right-lateral strike-slip fault, trends northwest along the northeastern side of the park. Tomales Bay, which is straight, long, narrow, and shallow, runs along the northeastern boundary of PRNS. The Bay, which fills the northwestern end of a rift valley at the intersection of the San Andreas Fault with the coastline, is approximately 20 km long, 2 km wide, and 6 m deep with mountainous terrain to the southwest and rolling hills to the northeast. Tomales Bay is one of the cleanest estuaries on the West Coast. In winter, approximately 17,000 to 20,000 shorebirds inhabit Tomales Bay and Bodega Bay, which lies directly to the north. At the head of Tomales Bay, the Giacomini Ranch comprises 563 acres of pastureland currently being used for grazing dairy cattle. After more than 50 years of operation as a dairy, the National Park Service acquired the Giacomini property with the intention to restore most of it and the nearby Olema Marsh to tidal wetland. Restoration will add approximately 4% to the existing coastal wetlands in California. The project will return the headwaters of Tomales Bay and two major stream intersections to an intertidal marsh environment, enhancing habitat for both wildlife and fish populations and contributing to the long-term health of Tomales Bay. Prior to the establishment of the ranch, the area was primarily salt marsh that formed as the delta of Lagunitas Creek expanded into Tomales Bay. In converting the salt marsh to dairy land, levees and tide gates were constructed to prevent tidal incursion and stream flooding. Those levees have significantly altered the patterns of estuarine circulation and sediment deposition. To restore natural hydrologic processes within the area and to promote the return of ecological functions and processes, the levees will have to be breached or removed. Developing a successful restoration strategy requires knowledge of elevations within the pastureland and the range of water depths that can be expected from tidal, river, and wind action. In support of the restoration program, the USGS provides technical assistance to PRNS in the form of a scientific study focusing on understanding the physical processes that could affect the Giacomini wetland restoration. The study will yield scientific products that NPS resource managers can use in designing and implementing the restoration project. Research elements include: - Develop a Geodetic Control Network (GCN) throughout PRNS that meets the standards specified National Geodetic Survey data base (the NGS "Bluebook"). The grid will allow this and future studies to be conducted to a precision commensurate with the expressed goals of PRNS. The survey will consist of three steps: (1) verify existing GPS control monuments in the area; (2) tie control monuments in the study areas to the GPS control monuments; and (3) establish NAVD88 elevations using a digital electronic level. - Conduct a detailed survey of the Giacomini site to produce an accurate topographic map of the property. The site survey can be coupled with on-site water-level measurements to produce an empirical flooding model. - Measure water level and wind regime at the Giacomini site. The water-level range is critical to determining the wetland types based on the elevation of the dairy land. Water level at Sacramento Landing, in central Tomales Bay, will also be measured for comparison. As of November 2005, we have created a GCN, produced a detailed topographic map of the Giacomini site, and collected approximately three years of water-level and wind data at the Giacomini site and over one year of usable water-level data at the Sacramento Landing pier.

California

Semi-quantitative evaluation of fecal contamination potential by human and ruminant sources using multiple lines of evidence

Protocols for microbial source tracking of fecal contamination generally are able to identify when a source of contamination is present, but thus far have been unable to evaluate what portion of fecal-indicator bacteria (FIB) came from various sources. A mathematical approach to estimate relative amounts of FIB, such as Escherichia coli , from various sources based on the concentration and distribution of microbial source tracking markers in feces was developed. The approach was tested using dilute fecal suspensions, then applied as part of an analytical suite to a contaminated headwater stream in the Rocky Mountains (Upper Fountain Creek, Colorado). In one single-source fecal suspension, a source that was not present could not be excluded because of incomplete marker specificity; however, human and ruminant sources were detected whenever they were present. In the mixed-feces suspension (pet and human), the minority contributor (human) was detected at a concentration low enough to preclude human contamination as the dominant source of E. coli to the sample. Without the semi-quantitative approach described, simple detects of human-associated marker in stream samples would have provided inaccurate evidence that human contamination was a major source of E. coli to the stream. In samples from Upper Fountain Creek the pattern of E. coli , general and host-associated microbial source tracking markers, nutrients, and wastewater-associated chemical detections—augmented with local observations and land-use patterns—indicated that, contrary to expectations, birds rather than humans or ruminants were the predominant source of fecal contamination to Upper Fountain Creek. This new approach to E. coli allocation, validated by a controlled study and tested by application in a relatively simple setting, represents a widely applicable step forward in the field of microbial source tracking of fecal contamination.

Water Research

Development of the Archean crust in the medina mountain area, Wind River Range, Wyoming (U.S.A.)

Evidence for an extensive Archean crustal history in the Wind River Range is preserved in the Medina Mountain area in the west-central part of the range. The oldest rocks in the area are metasedimentary, mafic, and ultramafic blocks in a migmatite host. The supracrustal rocks of the Medina Mountain area (MMS) are folded into the migmatites, and include semi-pelitic and pelitic gneisses, and mafic rocks of probable volcanic origin. Mafic dikes intrude the older migmatites but not the MMS, suggesting that the MMS are distinctly younger than the supracrustal rocks in the migmatites. The migmatites and the MMS were engulfed by the late Archean granite of the Bridger, Louis Lake, and Bears Ears batholiths, which constitutes the dominant rock of the Wind River Range. Isotopic data available for the area include Nd crustal residence ages from the MMS which indicate that continental crust existed in the area at or before 3.4 Ga, but the age of the older supracrustal sequence is not yet known. The upper age of the MMS is limited by a 2.7 Ga Rb-Sr age of the Bridger batholith, which was emplaced during the waning stages of the last regional metamorphism. The post-tectonic Louis Lake and Bears Ears batholiths have ages of 2.6 and 2.5 Ga, respectively (Stuckless et al., 1985). At least three metamorphic events are recorded in the area: (1) an early regional granulite event (M 1 ) that affected only the older inclusions within the migmatites, (2) a second regional amphibolite event (M 2 ) that locally reached granulite facies conditions, and (3) a restricted, contact granulite facies event (M 3 ) caused by the intrusion of charnockitic melts associated with the late Archean plutons. Results from cation exchange geobarometers and geothermometers yield unreasonably low pressures and temperatures, suggesting resetting during the long late Archean thermal event.

Wyoming

Seismicity and detection/location threshold in the southern Great Basin seismic network

A spatially varying model of the detection/location capabilities of the Southern Great Basin seismic network (SGBSN) has been derived that is based on simple empirical relations and statistics. This permits use of almost all the catalog data gathered; instead of ignoring data that are below the threshold of completeness, a spatially varying threshold model is developed so that subregions having lower completeness levels than the network as a whole can be outlined and the completeness level of each sub-region determined. Such a model is required to unambiguously identify regions that are aseismic due to natural processes rather than to limited detection and/or location capabilities. Accounting for spatial variations in detection/location threshold is also important for studies in which magnitude-frequency distributions are interpreted in terms of source scaling properties. The characteristics of the spatial distribution of earthquakes, where earthquake clusters and aseismic regions locate, appear to be stable at all magnitude levels so that inferences about where strain is being accommodated will be the same whether numbers of earthquakes or strain estimated from seismic moments are examined. For the southern Great Basin region these principal characteristics include clusters at the northern end of the Furnace Creek fault and in the Pahranagat Shear Zone, and a relatively large number of earthquakes in the northern and southeastern portions of the Nevada Test Site. These clusters cover regions much larger than the surface projections of any of the mapped faults. The extent to which seismicity is induced by nuclear testing is unclear. The predominantly aseismic regions include the area west of the Death Valley/Furnace Creek fault system and an almost complete absence of events at Yucca Mountain. Finally, a considerable number of isolated events in the SGBSN catalog cannot be correlated with mapped faults.

Journal of Geophysical Research

Climate impacts on source contributions and evaporation to flow in the Snake River Basin using surface water isoscapes (δ2H and δ18O)

Rising global temperatures are expected to decrease the precipitation amount that falls as snow, causing greater risk of water scarcity, groundwater overdraft, and fire in areas that rely on mountain snowpack for their water supply. Streamflow in large river basins varies with the amount, timing, and type of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and drainage properties of watersheds; however, these controls vary in time and space making it difficult to identify the areas contributing most to flow and when. In this study, we separate the evaporative influences from source values of water isotopes from the Snake River Basin in the western United States (US) to relate source area to flow dynamics. We developed isoscapes (δ 2 H and δ 18 O) for the basin and found that isotopic composition of surface water in small watersheds is primarily controlled by longitude, latitude, and elevation. To examine temporal variability in source contributions to flow, we present a six-year record of Snake River water isotopes from King Hill, Idaho after removing evaporative influences. During periods of low flow, source water values were isotopically lighter indicating a larger contribution to flow from surface waters in the highest elevation, eastern portion of the basin. River evaporation increases were evident during summer likely reflecting climate, changing water availability, and management strategies within the basin. Our findings present a potential tool for identifying critical portions of basins contributing to river flow as climate fluctuations alter flow dynamics. This tool can be applied in other continental-interior basins where evaporation may obscure source water isotopic signatures.

Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Wyoming

Preliminary report on the 22 December 2003, M 6.5 San Simeon, California earthquake

The M w 6.5 San Simeon earthquake struck the central California coast on 22 December 2003 at 19:15:56 UTC (11:15:56 am local time.) The epicenter was located 11 km northeast of the town of San Simeon, and 39 km west-northwest of Paso Robles ( Figure 1 ), as reported by the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN, the California region of the Advanced National Seismic System [ANSS]). The mainshock nucleated at 35.702°N, 121.108°W and a depth of 7.1 km, and the rupture propagated unilaterally to the southeast. The strong directivity of the rupture resulted in a concentration of damage and aftershock activity to the southeast of the hypocenter. The worst earthquake damage occurred in Paso Robles, where two people died in the collapse of an unreinforced masonry building. The accurate and rapid earthquake information provided in near real-time by CISN/ANSS to the Governor's Office of Emergency Services made it possible to focus emergency response in the source area, although the earthquake was felt from San Francisco to Los Angeles. The San Simeon earthquake occurred on a reverse fault striking northwest and most likely dipping to the northeast. Although motion along the Pacific-North America plate boundary in California is dominantly strike-slip, there is a small compressional component through central California. Repeated thrust earthquakes such as the San Simeon event accommodate this compression and build the Coast Ranges. Other recent thrust earthquakes in central California include the 1983 Coalinga (M 6.4) and the 1985 Kettleman Hills (M 6.0) earthquakes. Prior earthquakes in the vicinity of the San Simeon event include a M 5-6 earthquake in 1853, a M 5.7 earthquake in 1906, and the M L 6.2 Bryson earthquake of 1952 ( Figure 1 ) ( McLaren and Savage, 2001 .) The San Simeon earthquake occurred on a previously unknown blind thrust fault. No surface rupture associated with the earthquake has been identified. A number of roads, including State Highway 46, buckled due to the earthquake, but this deformation appears mainly to be failure of road fill due to ground shaking and not the result of tectonic surface rupture. Extrapolation of the fault plane to the surface would roughly align with the surface trace of the Oceanic Fault, but this is thought to be a vertical strike-slip fault. Two models for the kinematics of the region have previously been proposed. The first is a fault-propagation fold model developed by Namson and Davis ( 1990 ) for the Santa Lucia mountains ∼30 km to the southeast of the San Simeon sequence. The mainshock geometry is similar to, although more steeply dipping than, the main blind thrust of this model, implying that this model may be applicable to the San Simeon region as well. The second is the model of McLaren and Savage ( 2001 ), in which the region is dominated by strike-slip faulting with shortening on high-angle reverse faults. This model also may be applicable, although the dip of the San Simeon mainshock is shallower than predicted. The San Simeon earthquake was followed by a vigorous aftershock sequence, with 165 events above M 3 reported by CISN within the first week of the mainshock. Although the event triggered many aftershocks, it did not significantly impact the seismicity rates of other nearby faults such as the San Andreas Fault and the San Simeon-Hosgri fault zone. The only triggered seismicity seems to be a few small events within the mainshock coda at the Geysers geothermal area, north of San Francisco. The San Simeon earthquake did, however, trigger shallow creep on the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield and hydrologic changes in hot springs in Paso Robles.

California

Lower crustal deformation beneath the central Transverse Ranges, southern California: Results from the Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment

We present a P wave velocity model derived from active source seismic data collected during the 1994 Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment. Our model extends previously published upper crustal velocity models to mantle depths. Our model was developed by both ray tracing through a layered model and calculating travel times through a gridded model. It includes an 8-km-thick crustal root centered beneath the surface trace of the San Andreas fault, north of the highest topography in the San Gabriel Mountains. A simple mass balance calculation suggests that ∼36 km of north-south shortening across the San Andreas fault in the central Transverse Ranges could have formed this root. If north-south compression began when the “Big Bend” in the San Andreas fault formed at ∼5 Ma, 36 km of shortening implies a north-south contraction rate of ∼7.1 mm/yr across the central Transverse Ranges. If, instead, north-south compression began when the Transverse Ranges formed at 3.4–3.9 Ma, 36 km of shortening implies a contraction rate of 9.2–10.6 mm/yr. North of the San Andreas fault, the Mojave Desert crust has a low-velocity (6.3 km/s) mid and lower crust and a 28-km-deep Moho. South of the San Andreas fault, beneath the Los Angeles and San Gabriel Valley basins, there is a fast (6.6–6.8 km/s), thick (10–12 km) lower crust with a 27-km-deep Moho. Farther south still, the lower crust of the Continental Borderland is fast (6.6–6.8 km/s) and thin (5 km) with a shallow (22 km deep) Moho.

California

An empirical approach to modeling methylmercury concentrations in an Adirondack stream watershed

Inverse empirical models can inform and improve more complex process-based models by quantifying the principal factors that control water quality variation. Here we developed a multiple regression model that explains 81% of the variation in filtered methylmercury (FMeHg) concentrations in Fishing Brook, a fourth-order stream in the Adirondack Mountains, New York, a known “hot spot” of Hg bioaccumulation. This model builds on previous observations that wetland-dominated riparian areas are the principal source of MeHg to this stream and were based on 43 samples collected during a 33 month period in 2007–2009. Explanatory variables include those that represent the effects of water temperature, streamflow, and modeled riparian water table depth on seasonal and annual patterns of FMeHg concentrations. An additional variable represents the effects of an upstream pond on decreasing FMeHg concentrations. Model results suggest that temperature-driven effects on net Hg methylation rates are the principal control on annual FMeHg concentration patterns. Additionally, streamflow dilutes FMeHg concentrations during the cold dormant season. The model further indicates that depth and persistence of the riparian water table as simulated by TOPMODEL are dominant controls on FMeHg concentration patterns during the warm growing season, especially evident when concentrations during the dry summer of 2007 were less than half of those in the wetter summers of 2008 and 2009. This modeling approach may help identify the principal factors that control variation in surface water FMeHg concentrations in other settings, which can guide the appropriate application of process-based models.

New York

Influence of late Quaternary climatic changes on geomorphic and pedogenic processes on a desert piedmont, Eastern Mojave Desert, California

Radiocarbon dating of late Quaternary deposits and shorelines of Lake Mojave and cation-ratio numerical age dating of stone pavements (Dorn, 1984) on the adjacent Soda Mountains piedmont provide age constraints for alluvial and eolian deposits. These deposits are associated with climatically controlled stands of Lake Mojave during the past 15,000 yr. Six alluvial fan units and three eolian stratigraphic units were assigned ages based on field relations with dated shorelines and piedmont surfaces, as well as on soil-geomorphic data. All but one of these stratigraphic units were deposited in response to time-transgressive climatic changes beginning approximately 10,000 yr ago. Increased eolian flux rates occurred in response to the lowering of Lake Mojave and a consequent increase in fine-sediment availability. Increased rates of deposition of eolian fines and associated salts influenced pedogenesis, stone-pavement development, and runoff-infiltration relations by (1) enhancing mechanical weathering of fan surfaces and hillslopes and (2) forming clay- and silt-rich surface horizons which decrease infiltration. Changes in alluvial-fan source areas from hillslopes to piedmonts during the Holocene reflect runoff reduction on hillslopes caused by colluvial mantle development and runoff enhancement on piedmonts caused by the development of less-permeable soils. Inferred increased in early to middle Holocene monsoonal activity resulted in high-magnitude paleo-sheetflood events on older fan pavements; this runoff triggered piedmont dissection which, in turn, caused increased sediment availability along channel walls. Thus, runoff-infiltration changes during the late Quaternary have occurred in response to eolian deposition of fines, pedogenesis, increased sheetflood activity in the Holocene, and vegetational changes which are related to many complicated linkages among climatic change, lake fluctuations, and eolian, hillslope, and alluvial-fan processes. ?? 1987.

Quaternary Research

Wilderness experience in Rocky Mountain National Park 2002: Report to RMNP

Approximately 250,000 acres of backcountry in Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP or the Park) may be designated as wilderness use areas in the coming years. Currently, over 3 million people visit RMNP each year; many drive through the park on Trail Ridge Road, camp in designated campgrounds, or hike in front-country areas. However, visitors also report much use of backcountry areas that are not easily accessible by roads or trails. Use of the backcountry is growing at RMNP and is accompanied by changing visitor expectations and preferences for wilderness management. For these reasons it is of great importance for the Park to periodically assess what types of environments and conditions wilderness users seek, to help them facilitate a quality wilderness experience. To assist in this effort, the Political Analysis and Science Assistance [PASA] program / Fort Collins Science Center / U.S. Geological Survey, in close collaboration with personnel and volunteers from RMNP and in cooperation with the Natural Resource Recreation and Tourism [NRRT] Department at CSU, and launched a research effort in the summer of 2002 to investigate visitor numbers, wilderness experiences, and management preferences in the Park. Specifically, the purposes of the research reported here are: (1) To determine what constitutes a wilderness experience; (2) To identify important places, visual features, and sounds essential to a quality wilderness experience and; (3) To determine what aspects may detract from wilderness experience in RMNP. Thus, answers to these questions should provide insight for Park managers about visitors' expectations for wilderness recreation and the conditions they seek for quality wilderness experiences. Ultimately, this information can be used to support wilderness management decisions within RMNP. The social science technique of Visitor Employed Photography [VEP] was used to obtain information from visitors about wilderness experiences. Visitors were selected at random from Park-designated wilderness trails, in proportion to their use, and asked to participate in the survey. Respondents were given single-use, 10-exposure cameras and photo-log diaries to record experiences. A total of 293 cameras were distributed, with a response rate of 87%. Following the development of the photos, a copy of the photos, two pertinent pages from the photo-log, and a follow-up survey were mailed to respondents. Fifty six percent of the follow-up surveys were returned. Findings from the two surveys were analyzed and compared.

Open-File Report