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Results for “Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies”

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233 records · Page 13Linked to original sources
USGS1993

Hydrologic and land-use factors associated with herbicides and nitrate in near-surface aquifers

Selected herbicides, atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-s-triazine) metabolites, and NO − 3 were examined in near-surface unconsolidated and bedrock aquifers in the midcontinental USA to study the hydrogeologic, spatial, and seasonal distribution of these contaminants. Groundwater samples were collected from 303 wells during the spring and late summer of 1991. At least one herbicide or atrazine metabolite was detected in 24% of the samples collected for herbicide analysis (reporting limit 0.05 µ g/L). No herbicide concentration exceeded the USEPA's maximum contaminant level (MCL) or health advisory level. The most frequently detected compound was the at razine metabolite deethylatrazine [2-amino-4-chloro-6-(isopropylamino)-s-triazine] followed by atrazine, deisopropylatrazine [2-amino-4-chloro-6-(ethylamino)-s-triazine], prometon (2,4-bis(isopropylamino)-6-methyoxy-s-triazine), metolachlor [2-chloro-N-(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)-N-(2-methoxy-1methylethyl)acetamide], alachlor [2-chloro-N-(2,6-diethylphenyl)-N-(methoxymethyl)acetamide], metribuzin [4-amino-6-( tert -butyl)-3-methylthio- as -triazine-5(4H)-one], simazine [2-chloro-4,6-bis(ethylamino)-s-triazine], and cyanazine [2-[[4-chloro-6-(ethylamino)-1,3,5-triazin-2-yl]amino]-2-methylpropionitrile]. Nitrite plus nitrate, as nitrogen (N), exceeding 3.0 mg/L (excess NO − 3 ), was found in 29% of the samples, and 6% had − 3 exceeding the MCL of 10 mg/L. Ammonium as N was detected in excess of 0.01 mg/L in 78% of the samples. A nonlinear increase in the frequency of atrazine detection occurred with decreases in reporting limit. The frequency of atrazine residue detection (atrazine + deethylatrazine + deisopropylatrazine) was 25% greater than for atrazine alone. Herbicide detections and excess NO − 3 were notably lacking in the eastern part of the study region where it was estimated that herbicide and fertilizer use were among the largest in the region. Prometon, the second most frequently detected herbicide, was associated with non-agricultural land use. Herbicide and excess NO − 3 were more frequent in unconsolidated aquifers than in bedrock aquifers. Aquifer depth, as direct measurement of proximity to recharge sources, was inversely related to frequency of herbicide detection and excess NO − 3 .

Journal of Environmental Quality↗
USGS2017

Hydrologic modeling in a marsh-mangrove ecotone: Predicting wetland surface water and salinity response to restoration in the Ten Thousand Islands region of Florida, USA

At the fringe of Everglades National Park in southwest Florida, United States, the Ten Thousand Islands National Wildlife Refuge (TTINWR) habitat has been heavily affected by the disruption of natural freshwater flow across the Tamiami Trail (U.S. Highway 41). As the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) proposes to restore the natural sheet flow from the Picayune Strand Restoration Project area north of the highway, the impact of planned measures on the hydrology in the refuge needs to be taken into account. The objective of this study was to develop a simple, computationally efficient mass balance model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of water level and salinity within the area of interest. This model could be used to assess the effects of the proposed management decisions on the surface water hydrological characteristics of the refuge. Surface water variations are critical to the maintenance of wetland processes. The model domain is divided into 10 compartments on the basis of their shared topography, vegetation, and hydrologic characteristics. A diversion of + 10 % of the discharge recorded during the modeling period was simulated in the primary canal draining the Picayune Strand forest north of the Tamiami Trail (Faka Union Canal) and this discharge was distributed as overland flow through the refuge area. Water depths were affected only modestly. However, in the northern part of the refuge, the hydroperiod, i.e., the duration of seasonal flooding, was increased by 21 days (from 115 to 136 days) for the simulation during the 2008 wet season, with an average water level rise of 0.06 m. The average salinity over a two-year period in the model area just south of Tamiami Trail was reduced by approximately 8 practical salinity units (psu) (from 18 to 10 psu), whereas the peak dry season average was reduced from 35 to 29 psu (by 17%). These salinity reductions were even larger with greater flow diversions ( + 20 % ). Naturally, the reduction in salinity diminished toward the open water areas where the daily flood tides mix in saline bay water. Partially restoring hydrologic flows to TTINWR will affect hydroperiod and salinity regimes within downslope wetlands, and perhaps serve as a management tool to reduce the speed of future encroachment of mangroves into marsh as sea levels rise.

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering↗
USGS2016

Regional oxygen reduction and denitrification rates in groundwater from multi-model residence time distributions, San Joaquin Valley, USA

Rates of oxygen and nitrate reduction are key factors in determining the chemical evolution of groundwater. Little is known about how these rates vary and covary in regional groundwater settings, as few studies have focused on regional datasets with multiple tracers and methods of analysis that account for effects of mixed residence times on apparent reaction rates. This study provides insight into the characteristics of residence times and rates of O 2 reduction and denitrification (NO 3 − reduction) by comparing reaction rates using multi-model analytical residence time distributions (RTDs) applied to a data set of atmospheric tracers of groundwater age and geochemical data from 141 well samples in the Central Eastern San Joaquin Valley, CA. The RTD approach accounts for mixtures of residence times in a single sample to provide estimates of in-situ rates. Tracers included SF 6 , CFCs, 3 H, He from 3 H (tritiogenic He), 14 C, and terrigenic He. Parameter estimation and multi-model averaging were used to establish RTDs with lower error variances than those produced by individual RTD models. The set of multi-model RTDs was used in combination with NO 3 − and dissolved gas data to estimate zero order and first order rates of O 2 reduction and denitrification. Results indicated that O 2 reduction and denitrification rates followed approximately log-normal distributions. Rates of O 2 and NO 3 − reduction were correlated and, on an electron milliequivalent basis, denitrification rates tended to exceed O 2 reduction rates. Estimated historical NO 3 − trends were similar to historical measurements. Results show that the multi-model approach can improve estimation of age distributions, and that relatively easily measured O 2 rates can provide information about trends in denitrification rates, which are more difficult to estimate.

California↗
USGS2015

Plant-plant interactions in a subtropical mangrove-to-marsh transition zone: effects of environmental drivers

Questions Does the presence of herbaceous vegetation affect the establishment success of mangrove tree species in the transition zone between subtropical coastal mangrove forests and marshes? How do plant–plant interactions in this transition zone respond to variation in two primary coastal environmental drivers? Location Subtropical coastal region of the southern United States. Methods We conducted a greenhouse study to better understand how abiotic factors affect plant species interactions in the mangrove-to-marsh transition zone, or ecotone. We manipulated salinity (fresh, brackish or salt water) and hydrologic conditions (continuously saturated or 20-cm tidal range) to simulate ecotonal environments. Propagules of the mangroves Avicennia germinans and Laguncularia racemosa were introduced to mesocosms containing an established marsh community. Both mangrove species were also introduced to containers lacking other vegetation. We monitored mangrove establishment success and survival over 22 mo. Mangrove growth was measured as stem height and above-ground biomass. Stem height, stem density and above-ground biomass of the dominant marsh species were documented. Results Establishment success of A. germinans was reduced under saturated saltwater conditions, but establishment of L. racemosa was not affected by experimental treatments. There was complete mortality of A. germinans in mesocosms under freshwater conditions, and very low survival of L. racemosa . In contrast, survival of both species in monoculture under freshwater conditions exceeded 62%. The marsh species Distichlis spicata and Eleocharis cellulosa suppressed growth of both mangroves throughout the experiment, whereas the mangroves did not affect herbaceous species growth. The magnitude of growth suppression by marsh species varied with environmental conditions; suppression was often higher in saturated compared to tidal conditions, and higher in fresh and salt water compared to brackish water. Conclusions Our results indicate that herbaceous marsh species can suppress mangrove early seedling growth. Depending on species composition and density, marsh plants can slow mangrove landward migration under predicted climate change scenarios as salinity in freshwater and oligohaline wetlands increases with rising sea levels. Change in the relative coverage of mangrove forests and marshes will depend on both the ability of marsh species to migrate further inland as mangroves advance, and the ability of shoreline mangroves to adjust to rising sea level through accretionary processes.

Journal of Vegetation Science↗
USGS2014

Shifts in plant functional types have time-dependent and regionally variable impacts on dryland ecosystem water balance

Summary 1. Terrestrial vegetation influences hydrologic cycling. In water-limited, dryland ecosystems, altered ecohydrology as a consequence of vegetation change can impact vegetation structure, ecological functioning and ecosystem services. Shrub steppe ecosystems dominated by big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) are widespread across western North America, and provide a range of ecosystem services. While sagebrush abundance in these ecosystems has been altered over the past century, and changes are likely to continue, the ecohydrological consequences of sagebrush removal and reestablishment remain unclear. 2. To characterize the immediate and medium-term patterns of water cycling and availability following sagebrush plant community alteration, we applied the SOILWAT ecosystem water balance model to 898 sites across the distribution of sagebrush ecosystems, representing the three primary sagebrush ecosystem types: sagebrush shrublands, sagebrush steppe and montane sagebrush. At each site, we examined three vegetation conditions representing intact sagebrush, recently disturbed sagebrush and recovered but grass-dominated vegetation. 3. Transition from shrub to grass dominance decreased precipitation interception and transpiration and increased soil evaporation and deep drainage. Relative to intact sagebrush vegetation, simulated soils in the herbaceous vegetation phases typically had drier surface layers and wetter deep layers. 4. Our simulations suggested that alterations in ecosystem water balance may be most pronounced in vegetation representing recently disturbed conditions (herbaceous vegetation with low biomass) and only modest in conditions representing recovered, but still grass-dominated vegetation. Furthermore, the ecohydrological impact of simulated sagebrush removal depended on climate; while short-term changes in water balance were greatest in wet areas represented by the montane sagebrush ecosystem type, medium-term impacts were greatest in dry areas of sagebrush shrublands and sagebrush steppe. 5. Synthesis. This study provides a novel, regional-scale assessment of how plant functional type transitions may impact ecosystem water balance in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems of North America. Results illustrate that the ecohydrological consequences of changing vegetation depend strongly on climate and suggest that decreasing woody plant abundance may have only limited impact on evapotranspiration and water yield.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2019

Effects of climate, regulation, and urbanization on historical flood trends in the United States

Many studies have analyzed historical trends in annual peak flows in the United States because of the importance of flooding to bridges and other structures, and the concern that human influence may increase flooding. To help attribute causes of historical peak-flow changes, it is important to separate basins by characteristics that have different influences on peak flows. We analyzed historical trends by basin type: minimally altered basins, regulated basins (substantial reservoir storage but low urbanization), and urbanized basins (with low reservoir storage). Although many peak-flow magnitude changes were found in the last century across the conterminous United States, the trend magnitude and direction vary strongly by basin type and region. In general, there was a low percentage of significant increases and decreases for minimally altered basins while many regulated basins had significant decreases and the limited number of urbanized basins with long-term record showed a high percentage of increases. For urbanized basins, which are concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest, trend magnitude was significantly correlated with the amount of basin urbanization. For all basins regardless of type, parts of the Northeast quadrant of the U.S. had high concentrations of basins with large and significant increases while parts of the Southwest quadrant had high concentrations of basins with large and significant decreases. Basin regulation appears to have heavily influenced the decreasing trends in the Southwest quadrant; there were many large decreases for this basin type despite overall increases in heavy precipitation in this area. Changes over time in the number of 2-per-year and 1-per-5-year peaks over threshold are consistent with changes in the magnitude of annual peak flows.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2010

Sediment discharges during storm flow from proximal urban and rural karst springs, central Kentucky, USA

Since the mid-1990s, various studies have addressed the timing of sediment transport to karst springs during storm flow or the composition and provenance of sediment discharged from springs. However, relatively few studies have focused on the flow thresholds at which sediment is mobilized or total sediment yields across various time scales. We examined each of these topics for a mainly urban spring (Blue Hole) and a rural spring (SP-2) in the Inner Bluegrass region of central Kentucky (USA). Suspended sediment consisted mostly of quartz silt and sand, with lesser amounts of calcite and organic matter. Total suspended sediment (TSS) values measured during storm flow were greater at SP-2 than at Blue Hole. By aggregating data from four storms during 2 years, we found that median suspended-sediment size jumped as Q exceeded ???0.5 m 3 /s for both springs. At Blue Hole, TSS tended to vary with Q and capacity approached 1 g/L, but no systematic relationship between TSS and Q was evident at SP-2. Sediment fluxes from the Blue Hole basin were ???2 orders of magnitude greater for storms in March (2002 and 2004) than September (2002 and 2003). In contrast, sediment fluxes from the SP-2 basin were of similar magnitude in September 2003 and March 2004. The overall range of area-normalized fluxes for both springs, 9.16 ?? 10 -3 -4.45 ?? 10 2 kg/(ha h), overlaps values reported for farm plots and a stream in the Inner Bluegrass region and for other spring basins in the eastern USA and western Europe. Sediment compositions, sizes, and responses to storms in the basins may differ because of land use (e.g., the extent of impervious cover in the Blue Hole basin), basin size (larger for Blue Hole), conduit architecture, which appears to be more complex in the Blue Hole basin, and the impoundment of SP-2, which may have promoted decadal-scale storage of sediment upgradient. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2021

A CONUS-scale study of wildfire and evapotranspiration: Spatial and temporal response and controlling factors

Evapotranspiration (ET) accounts for a substantial portion of regional water budgets in much of the southeast and fire-prone western United States (US). Even small changes in ET rates can translate to meaningful shifts in runoff patterns and makes forecasting the direction and magnitude of wildfire-induced ET alteration of critical importance. We use 1 km ET estimates from the operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) product for the conterminous US (CONUS) to evaluate post-fire ET and evaporation ratio (ET/P) shifts in the first five post-fire years in approximately 5500 unique fires. Pixels with similar ET/P responses to fire are grouped through k-means clustering and the resultant cluster distribution is explored over space and time. The largest changes in post-fire ET/P are observed in the southwestern CONUS where first-year ratios are reduced by 50 to 90% and pre-fire ratios are rarely recovered by post-fire year five. Regional and intra-fire ET/P response variability is also highest in the western CONUS where climatic, topographic, and ecologic gradients are steep. Post-fire ET/P modifications are small to negligible in the east-southeast CONUS, and 18% of all pixels analyzed exhibit small to moderate increases in post-fire year one ET/P. A comparison of burned and unburned pixel pairs confirms the role of fire in the shifts but also indicates a high degree of background variability in the ET and precipitation data. Although the biggest percent ET/P reductions occur in shrub/scrub landscapes in much of the west, the biggest magnitude ET changes often occur in evergreen forests. Higher burn severities are consistently correlated with greater post-fire ET/P reductions, while relationships between post-fire ET/P shifts and numerous other landscape attributes (e.g., pre-fire vegetation type) vary in both direction and magnitude in different parts of the CONUS. Further work can be conducted to refine controlling relationships within more homogeneous sub-regions.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2013

Short-term variability of 7 Be atmospheric deposition and watershed response in a Pacific coastal stream, Monterey Bay, California, USA

Beryllium-7 is a powerful and commonly used tracer for environmental processes such as watershed sediment provenance, soil erosion, fluvial and nearshore sediment cycling, and atmospheric fallout. However, few studies have quantified temporal or spatial variability of 7 Be accumulation from atmospheric fallout, and parameters that would better define the uses and limitations of this geochemical tracer. We investigated the abundance and variability of 7 Be in atmospheric deposition in both rain events and dry periods, and in stream surface-water samples collected over a ten-month interval at sites near northern Monterey Bay (37°N, 122°W) on the central California coast, a region characterized by a rainy winters, dry summers, and small mountainous streams with flashy hydrology. The range of 7 Be activity in rainwater samples from the main sampling site was 1.3–4.4 Bq L −1 , with a mean (±standard deviation) of 2.2 ± 0.9 Bq L −1 , and a volume-weighted average of 2.0 Bq L −1 . The range of wet atmospheric deposition was 18–188 Bq m −2 per rain event, with a mean of 72 ± 53 Bq m −2 . Dry deposition fluxes of 7 Be ranged from less than 0.01 up to 0.45 Bq m −2 d −1 , with an estimated dry season deposition of 7 Bq m −2 month −1 . Annualized 7 Be atmospheric deposition was approximately 1900 Bq m −2 yr −1 , with most deposition via rainwater (>95%) and little via dry deposition. Overall, these activities and deposition fluxes are similar to values found in other coastal locations with comparable latitude and Mediterranean-type climate. Particulate 7 Be values in the surface water of the San Lorenzo River in Santa Cruz, California, ranged from <0.01 Bq g −1 to 0.6 Bq g −1 , with a median activity of 0.26 Bq g −1 . A large storm event in January 2010 characterized by prolonged flooding resulted in the entrainment of 7 Be-depleted sediment, presumably from substantial erosion in the watershed. There were too few particulate 7 Be data over the storm to accurately model a 7 Be load, but the results suggest enhanced watershed export of 7 Be from small, mountainous river systems compared to other watershed types.

California↗
USGS2003

Multiple pathways for woody plant establishment on floodplains at local to regional scales

1. The structure and functioning of riverine ecosystems is dependent upon regional setting and the interplay of hydrologic regime and geomorphologic processes. We used a retrospective analysis to study recruitment along broad, alluvial valley segments (parks) and canyon segments of the unregulated Yampa River and the regulated Green River in the upper Colorado River basin, USA. We precisely aged 811 individuals of Populus deltoides ssp. wislizenii (native) and Tamarix ramosissima (exotic) from 182 wooded patches and determined the elevation and character of the germination surface for each. We used logistic regression to relate recruitment events (presence or absence of cohort) to five flow and two weather parameters. 2. Woody plant establishment occurred via multiple pathways at patch, reach and segment scales. Recruitment occurred through establishment on (1) vertically accreting bars in the unregulated alluvial valley, (2) high alluvial floodplain surfaces during rare large flood events, (3) vertically accreting channel margin deposits in canyon pools and eddies, (4) vertically accreting intermittent/abandoned channels, (5) low elevation gravel bars and debris fans in canyons during multi-year droughts, and (6) bars and channels formed prior to flow regulation on the dammed river during controlled flood events. 3. The Yampa River's peak flow was rarely included in models estimating the likelihood that recruitment would occur in any year. Flow variability and the interannual pattern of flows, rather than individual large floods, control most establishment. 4. Regulation of the Green River flow since 1962 has had different effects on woody vegetation recruitment in canyons and valleys. The current regime mimics drought in a canyon setting, accelerating Tamarix invasion whereas in valleys the ongoing geomorphic adjustment of the channel, combined with reduced flow variability, has nearly eliminated Populus establishment . 5. A single year's flow or a particular pattern of flows over a sequence of years, whether natural or man-made, produces different recruitment opportunities in alluvial and canyon reaches, in diverse landforms within a particular river reach, and for Populus and Tamarix . The design of flows to restore riparian ecosystems must consider these multiple pathways and adjust the seasonal timing, magnitude and interannual frequency of flows to match the desired outcome.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2002

The lacustrine carbon cycle as illuminated by the waters and sediments of two hydrologically distinct headwater lakes in north-central Minnesota, U.S.A

The accumulation rates of CaCO 3 and organic carbon (OC) in lake sediments are delicately balanced between production in the epilimnion and destruction in the hypolimnion. The cycling of these two forms of carbon makes a "carbon pump" that greatly affects the biogeochemical cycles of other elements. To further understand these biogeochemical dynamics, the lakes, streams, and wetlands of the Shingobee River headwater area of north-central Minnesota have been subjected to intensive hydrologic and biogeochemical studies. Williams Lake, situated close to the highest point in the regional flow system, is hydrologically closed, with no surface inlet or outlet, and ground water and precipitation as the only sources of water. Shingobee Lake, situated at the lowest point in the regional flow system, has the Shingobee River as an inlet and outlet. The surface waters of both lakes are oversaturated, and the bottom waters undersaturated, with respect to CaCO 3 during the summer. The small amount of CaCO 3 that is precipitated in the epilimnion of Williams Lake during the summer is dissolved in the undersaturated hypolimnion and sediments with the result that no CaCO 3 is incorporated into the profundal surface sediments. Because of the high phytoplankton productivity of Shingobee Lake, sufficient CaCO 3 is produced in the epilimnion that large amounts survive the corrosive hypolimnion and sediments, and an average of 46 wt. % accumulates in surface sediments. Another consequence of higher phytoplankton productivity in Shingobee Lake is that the hypolimnion becomes oxygen deficient within a month after overturn in both the spring and fall. Because of reducing conditions that develop in the hypolimnion of Shingobee Lake, high concentrations of dissolved Fe and Mn accumulate there during summer stratification. Precipitation of Fe and Mn oxyhydroxides during periods of fall and spring overturn results in high concentrations of Fe and Mn in surface sediments. In Williams Lake, high concentrations of Fe and Mn do not build up in the hypolimnion. The concentration of CaCO 3 is about 80 wt. % in lower Holocene sediments of both lakes. The lower Holocene sediments in both lakes also contain high concentrations of Fe and Mn, and the lower Holocene sediments of Shingobee are laminated. The waters of both lakes had identical values of δ 13 C and δ 18 O during the early Holocene, but the waters of Williams Lake "evolved" during the early Holocene, increasing about 10‰ in both δ 13 C and δ 18 O. Deposits of lacustrine marl occur as much as seven meters above the present elevation of Williams Lake, the highest of the two lakes. Taken together, these observations suggest that the lakes were once connected to form a larger lake called Lake Willobee with a hypolimnion that was anoxic, at least seasonally.

Minnesota↗
USGS2021

Drought resistance and resilience: The role of soil moisture–plant interactions and legacies in a dryland ecosystem

In many regions of the world, climate change is projected to reduce water availability through changes in the hydrological cycle, including more frequent and intense droughts, as well as seasonal shifts in precipitation. In water-limited ecosystems, such as drylands, lower soil water availability may exceed the adaptive capacity of many organisms, leading to cascading ecological effects during (concurrent effects) and after drought (legacy effects). The magnitude and duration of concurrent and legacy effects depends on drought intensity, duration and timing as well as the resistance and resilience of the ecosystem. Here, we investigated the effects of drought seasonality and plant community composition on two dominant perennial grasses, Achnatherum hymenoides (C 3 photosynthesis) and Pleuraphis jamesii (C 4 photosynthesis), in a dryland ecosystem. The experiment consisted of three precipitation treatments: control (ambient precipitation), cool-season drought (−66% ambient precipitation November–April) and warm-season drought (−66% ambient precipitation May–October), applied in two plant communities (perennial grasses with or without a large shrub, Ephedra viridis ) over a 3-year period. We examined the concurrent and legacy effects of seasonal drought on soil moisture, phenology and biomass. Drought treatments had strong concurrent and legacy effects on soil moisture, which impacted the phenology and biomass of the two grasses. Drought reduced growing season length by delaying green-up (cool-season drought) or advancing senescence (warm-season drought) and reduced biomass for both species. Biomass and phenology legacy effects from drought emerged in the second and third years of the experiment. While we observed differential sensitivity to drought legacies between the two grasses, we found limited evidence that shrub presence had interactive effects with the drought treatment. Synthesis . The results from this study highlight how abiotic and biotic legacies can develop and influence a community's resistance and resilience to subsequent droughts. When the frequency of repeated extreme events, such as recurring seasonal droughts, exceeds the capacity of organisms or ecosystems to recover (i.e. resilience), persistent drought legacies can reduce the resistance to subsequent drought events. Overall, these results highlight how drought legacies are a product of ecological resistance and resilience to past drought and can influence ecosystem vulnerability to future droughts.

Utah↗
USGS1989

Analysis of the shallow groundwater flow system near Connetqout Brook, Long Island, New York

Streamflow on Long Island is derived principally from shallow groundwater that flows above the deeper regional flow system. The movement of shallow groundwater was studied during 1975-1982 at Connetquot Brook - an undisturbed stream in Connetquot River State Park - in south-central Long Island. The investigation encompassed: (1) field studies of streamflow, groundwater levels, and age of water as indicated by tritium concentrations, and (2) numerical simulation of the shallow flow system to evaluate the hydraulic factors that influence groundwater flow near and beneath the stream. Analysis of water-level data indicates that groundwater flow is essentially horizontal throughout the drainage basin except near and beneath the stream, where it moves upward diagonally and discharges into the streambank at three sites were 1-2 ft higher than stream stage in the and in wells driven into the streambank at three sites were 1-2 ft higher than stream stage in the first 5 ft of penetration. Increases in head, which were detected to depths of 30 ft beneath the streambed, indicate upward movement of water above that depth. Water samples from selected wells were analyzed for tritium concentration to determine the relative age of water to locate the bottom boundary of the shallow flow system. Tritium concentrations indicate that the lower boundary is from 45 to 100 ft below the water table. A two-dimensional cross-sectional flow model of the shallow flow system indicated that: (1) stream width and streambed hydraulic conductivity influence heads mostly within about 50 ft of the stream; (2) the thickness of the shallow flow system influences heads more distant from the stream but has a negligible effect near the stream; and (3) the quantity of water entering the system as recharge from precipitation influences the heads throughout the area. Field measurements of hydraulic head indicate the shallow flow system to extend to about 30 ft below the stream channel. Results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that the thickness of the shallow system has a negligible effect on head distribution beneath the stream.

New York↗
USGS2013

Fens as whole-ecosystem gauges of groundwater recharge under climate change

Currently, little is known about the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascade Range of California or other mountainous regions of the world. The purpose of this study was to determine whether small alpine peat lands called fens can be used as whole-ecosystem gauges of groundwater recharge through time. Fens are sustained by groundwater discharge and are highly sensitive to changes in groundwater flow due to hydrologic disturbance including climate change. Seven fens in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascade Range were studied over a 50-80 year period using historic aerial photography. In each aerial photograph, fen areas were identified as open lawn and partially treed areas that exhibited (1) dark brownish-green coloring or various shades of gray and black in black and white imagery and (2) mottling of colors and clustering of vegetation, which signified a distinct moss canopy with overlying clumped sedge vegetation. In addition to the aerial photography study, a climate analysis for the study sites was carried out using both measured data (U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service SNOwpack TELemetry system) and modeled data (a downscaled version of the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) for the period from 1951 to 2010. Over the study period, the five fens in the Sierra Nevada were found to be decreasing between 10% and 16% in delineated area. The climate analysis revealed significant increases through time in annual mean minimum temperature (T min ) between 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. In addition, April 1 snow water equivalent and snowpack longevity also decreased between 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. For the fens in the Cascade Range, there were no discernible changes in delineated area. At these sites, increases in T min occurred only within the past 20-25 years and decreases in snowpack longevity were more subtle. A conceptual model is presented, which illustrates that basic differences in hydrogeology of the Sierra Nevada vs. the Cascade Range may control the threshold at which changes in delineated fen areas are discernible. Overall, the results from this study show that fens in the Sierra Nevada have strong potential as whole ecosystem gauges for determining long-term changes in groundwater recharge under climate change. Due to either more moderate climate change and/or hydrogeological differences, fens in the southern Cascade Range currently do not appear to have the same utility. A greater sample size of fens in the Sierra Nevada is needed to confirm the general applicability of this method. In addition, future work needs to focus on integrating fen monitoring with geochemical and/or isotopic process-level studies in order to quantify changes in groundwater recharge identified using this new approach.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2018

Metamodeling and mapping of nitrate flux in the unsaturated zone and groundwater, Wisconsin, USA

Nitrate contamination of groundwater in agricultural areas poses a major challenge to the sustainability of water resources. Aquifer vulnerability models are useful tools that can help resource managers identify areas of concern, but quantifying nitrogen (N) inputs in such models is challenging, especially at large spatial scales. We sought to improve regional nitrate (NO 3 − ) input functions by characterizing unsaturated zone NO 3 − transport to groundwater through use of surrogate, machine-learning metamodels of a process-based N flux model. The metamodels used boosted regression trees (BRTs) to relate mappable landscape variables to parameters and outputs of a previous “vertical flux method” (VFM) applied at sampled wells in the Fox, Wolf, and Peshtigo (FWP) river basins in northeastern Wisconsin. In this context, the metamodels upscaled the VFM results throughout the region, and the VFM parameters and outputs are the metamodel response variables. The study area encompassed the domain of a detailed numerical model that provided additional predictor variables, including groundwater recharge, to the metamodels. We used a statistical learning framework to test a range of model complexities to identify suitable hyperparameters of the six BRT metamodels corresponding to each response variable of interest: NO 3 − source concentration factor (which determines the local NO 3 − input concentration); unsaturated zone travel time; NO 3 − concentration at the water table in 1980, 2000, and 2020 (three separate metamodels); and NO 3 − “extinction depth”, the eventual steady state depth of the NO 3 − front. The final metamodels were trained to 129 wells within the active numerical flow model area, and considered 58 mappable predictor variables compiled in a geographic information system (GIS). These metamodels had training and cross-validation testing R 2 values of 0.52 – 0.86 and 0.22 – 0.38, respectively, and predictions were compiled as maps of the above response variables. Testing performance was reasonable, considering that we limited the metamodel predictor variables to mappable factors as opposed to using all available VFM input variables. Relationships between metamodel predictor variables and mapped outputs were generally consistent with expectations, e.g. with greater source concentrations and NO 3 − at the groundwater table in areas of intensive crop use and well drained soils. Shorter unsaturated zone travel times in poorly drained areas likely indicated preferential flow through clay soils, and a tendency for fine grained deposits to collocate with areas of shallower water table. Numerical estimates of groundwater recharge were important in the metamodels and may have been a proxy for N input and redox conditions in the northern FWP, which had shallow predicted NO 3 − extinction depth. The metamodel results provide proof-of-concept for regional characterization of unsaturated zone NO 3 − transport processes in a statistical framework based on readily mappable GIS input variables.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2004

Use of medium-range numerical weather prediction model output to produce forecasts of streamflow

This paper examines an archive containing over 40 years of 8-day atmospheric forecasts over the contiguous United States from the NCEP reanalysis project to assess the possibilities for using medium-range numerical weather prediction model output for predictions of streamflow. This analysis shows the biases in the NCEP forecasts to be quite extreme. In many regions, systematic precipitation biases exceed 100% of the mean, with temperature biases exceeding 3°C . In some locations, biases are even higher. The accuracy of NCEP precipitation and 2-m maximum temperature forecasts is computed by interpolating the NCEP model output for each forecast day to the location of each station in the NWS cooperative network and computing the correlation with station observations. Results show that the accuracy of the NCEP forecasts is rather low in many areas of the country. Most apparent is the generally low skill in precipitation forecasts (particularly in July) and low skill in temperature forecasts in the western United States, the eastern seaboard, and the southern tier of states. These results outline a clear need for additional processing of the NCEP Medium-Range Forecast Model (MRF) output before it is used for hydrologic predictions. Techniques of model output statistics (MOS) are used in this paper to downscale the NCEP forecasts to station locations. Forecasted atmospheric variables (e.g., total column precipitable water, 2-m air temperature) are used as predictors in a forward screening multiple linear regression model to improve forecasts of precipitation and temperature for stations in the National Weather Service cooperative network. This procedure effectively removes all systematic biases in the raw NCEP precipitation and temperature forecasts. MOS guidance also results in substantial improvements in the accuracy of maximum and minimum temperature forecasts throughout the country. For precipitation, forecast improvements were less impressive. MOS guidance increases he accuracy of precipitation forecasts over the northeastern United States, but overall, the accuracy of MOS-based precipitation forecasts is slightly lower than the raw NCEP forecasts. Four basins in the United States were chosen as case studies to evaluate the value of MRF output for predictions of streamflow. Streamflow forecasts using MRF output were generated for one rainfall-dominated basin (Alapaha River at Statenville, Georgia) and three snowmelt-dominated basins (Animas River at Durango, Colorado: East Fork of the Carson River near Gardnerville, Nevada: and Cle Elum River near Roslyn, Washington). Hydrologic model output forced with measured-station data were used as "truth" to focus attention on the hydrologic effects of errors in the MRF forecasts. Eight-day streamflow forecasts produced using the MOS-corrected MRF output as input (MOS) were compared with those produced using the climatic Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) technique. MOS-based streamflow forecasts showed increased skill in the snowmelt-dominated river basins, where daily variations in streamflow are strongly forced by temperature. In contrast, the skill of MOS forecasts in the rainfall-dominated basin (the Alapaha River) were equivalent to the skill of the ESP forecasts. Further improvements in streamflow forecasts require more accurate local-scale forecasts of precipitation and temperature, more accurate specification of basin initial conditions, and more accurate model simulations of streamflow.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗
USGS2016

Uncertainty analysis of the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model at multiple flux tower sites

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of the water cycle &ndash; ET from the land surface returns approximately 60% of the global precipitation back to the atmosphere. ET also plays an important role in energy transport among the biosphere, atmosphere, and hydrosphere. Current regional to global and daily to annual ET estimation relies mainly on surface energy balance (SEB) ET models or statistical and empirical methods driven by remote sensing data and various climatological databases. These models have uncertainties due to inevitable input errors, poorly defined parameters, and inadequate model structures. The eddy covariance measurements on water, energy, and carbon fluxes at the AmeriFlux tower sites provide an opportunity to assess the ET modeling uncertainties. In this study, we focused on uncertainty analysis of the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model for ET estimation at multiple AmeriFlux tower sites with diverse land cover characteristics and climatic conditions. The 8-day composite 1-km MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) was used as input land surface temperature for the SSEBop algorithms. The other input data were taken from the AmeriFlux database. Results of statistical analysis indicated that the SSEBop model performed well in estimating ET with an R2 of 0.86 between estimated ET and eddy covariance measurements at 42 AmeriFlux tower sites during 2001&ndash;2007. It was encouraging to see that the best performance was observed for croplands, where R2 was 0.92 with a root mean square error of 13 mm/month. The uncertainties or random errors from input variables and parameters of the SSEBop model led to monthly ET estimates with relative errors less than 20% across multiple flux tower sites distributed across different biomes. This uncertainty of the SSEBop model lies within the error range of other SEB models, suggesting systematic error or bias of the SSEBop model is within the normal range. This finding implies that the simplified parameterization of the SSEBop model did not significantly affect the accuracy of the ET estimate while increasing the ease of model setup for operational applications. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the SSEBop model is most sensitive to input variables, land surface temperature (LST) and reference ET ( ET o ); and parameters, differential temperature ( dT ), and maximum ET scalar ( K max ), particularly during the non-growing season and in dry areas. In summary, the uncertainty assessment verifies that the SSEBop model is a reliable and robust method for large-area ET estimation. The SSEBop model estimates can be further improved by reducing errors in two input variables ( ET o and LST) and two key parameters ( K max and dT ).

Journal of Hydrology↗