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At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Songbird use of floodplain and upland forests along the Upper Mississippi River corridor during spring migration

The Upper Mississippi River is thought to provide important stopover habitat for migrating landbirds because of its north-south orientation and floodplain forests. The river flows through the Driftless Area of southwestern Wisconsin and southeastern Minnesota where forests are plentiful, yet forests of the floodplain and Driftless Area uplands differ greatly in landscape setting, tree species composition, and topography. We compared landbird assemblages in these upland and floodplain forests over three springs, 2005–2007, using line-transect surveys at randomly selected areas in and within 16 km of the floodplain. We found more species of both transient and locally breeding migrants per survey in floodplain than in upland forest. Detections of transient neotropical migrants did not differ statistically by habitat. Detections of locally breeding neotropical and temperate-zone migrants and transient temperate-zone migrants were greater in floodplain than in upland forest. Between floodplain and upland forest, assemblages of locally breeding species, including neotropical and temperate-zone migrants (of which some individuals were in transit), differed substantially, but assemblages of transients (including both neotropical and temperate-zone migrants) did not differ as much. Only two species of transient migrants had clear affinities for floodplain forest, and none had an affinity for upland forest, whereas most locally breeding migrants had an affinity for either upland or floodplain forest. Within each spring, however, detections of transient neotropical migrants shifted from being greater in floodplain to greater in upland forests. This intraseasonal shift may be related to the phenology of certain tree species.

Iowa;Minnesota;Wisconsin↗
USGS2004

Factors affecting songbird nest survival in riparian forests in a midwestern agricultural landscape

We investigated factors affecting nest success of songbirds in riparian forest and buffers in northeastern Missouri. We used an information-theoretic approach to determine support for hypotheses concerning effects of nest-site, habitat-patch, edge, and temporal factors on nest success of songbirds in three narrow (55–95 m) and three wide (400–530 m) riparian forests with adjacent grassland-shrub buffer strips and in three narrow and three wide riparian forests without adjacent grassland-shrub buffer strips. We predicted that temporal effects would have the most support and that habitat-patch and edge effects would have little support, because nest predation would be great across all sites in the highly fragmented, predominantly agricultural landscape. Interval nest success was 0.404, 0.227, 0.070, and 0.186, respectively, for Gray Catbird ( Dumetella carolinensis ), Northern Cardinal ( Cardinalis cardinalis ), Indigo Bunting ( Passerina cyanea ), and forest interior species pooled (Acadian Flycatcher [ Empidonax virescens ], Wood Thrush [ Hylocichla mustelina ], Ovenbird [ Seiurus aurocapillus ], and Kentucky Warbler [ Oporornis formosus ]). The effect of nest stage on nest success had the most support; daily nest success for Gray Catbird and Indigo Bunting were lowest in the laying stage. We found strong support for greater nest success of Gray Catbird in riparian forests with adjacent buffer strips than in riparian forests without adjacent buffer strips. Patch width also occurred in the most-supported model for Gray Catbird, but with very limited support. The null model received the most support for Northern Cardinal. Riparian forests provided breeding habitat for area-sensitive forest species and grassland-shrub nesting species. Buffer strips provided additional breeding habitat for grassland-shrub nesting species. Interval nest success for Indigo Bunting and area-sensitive forest species pooled, however, fell well below the level that is likely necessary to balance juvenile and adult mortality, which suggests that when riparian forests are located within agricultural landscapes, the potential even for wide riparian forests with adjacent buffer strips to provide high-quality breeding habitat is severely diminished for some species.

The Auk↗
USGS2019

Sharp savanna-forest transitions in the Midwest followed environmental gradients but are absent from the modern landscape

Historically, closed eastern forests transitioned into open savannas and prairies in the US Midwest, but this transition is poorly understood. To investigate the eastern boundary of the prairie-forest ecotone, we conducted a case study of historic and modern vegetation patterns of the Yellow River watershed in northwest Indiana. Historic vegetation came from the Public Land Survey notes collected in the early 1800s, whereas modern vegetation came from the Forest Inventory Analysis and USGS National Land Cover Database. We mapped historical survey vegetation data using GIS to reconstruct the region’s past and current forest composition and structure. We also mapped climate, topography, and soil composition across the watershed to investigate the relationship between historic vegetation and environmental gradients. We found a sharp transition in the presettlement forest structure and composition, with dense deciduous forests in the eastern portion of our study area and open oak savannas in the west. The savanna ecosystem dominated in sandy well-drained soils and was at a slightly lower elevation than the adjacent closed forest. Modest environmental changes accompanied major vegetation changes in the past, which might suggest fire and hydrological patterns helped maintain the sharp ecotone. By contrast, the modern forest shows no difference in tree density and composition across the watershed, which is consistent with major land use and hydrology changes in the watershed since settlement. On the modern landscape, land that was historically closed forest now has higher agricultural productivity compared to land that was historically savanna, whereas the historic savanna currently supports more mesic forest. These results suggest the environmental gradient continues to subtly shape the landscape. Though land use change has largely removed the closed mixed hardwood forests and oak savannas from this area, a better understanding of the historic vegetation and the conditions that supported it can help inform land management and restoration, as well as reveal ecological processes that drive vegetation transitions.

Indiana↗
USGS2021

Songbird use of interior and edge floodplain forest sites along the Upper Mississippi River, USA, during spring migration and breeding seasons

Floodplain forests of large rivers in the midwestern United States are naturally fragmented by sloughs, backwaters, wetlands, and shrub carr. On the highly altered Upper Mississippi River (UMR), resource managers want to protect and manage floodplain forests to benefit forest “interior” bird species. To discover bird relations with interior and edge floodplain forest, we characterized bird assemblages during spring migration and breeding season in 3 forest types: habitat in the interior of forest areas > 100 m from an edge, edges associated with interior areas, and other areas of forest not associated with an interior area (random sites) on the UMR between Hastings and Red Wing, Minnesota. The random sites represent the majority of UMR floodplain forest area because only a small percentage of forest occurs >100 m from edge. Estimated habitat characteristics did not differ among interior, edge, and random sites. Bird relative abundance, species richness, diversity, assemblage composition, and detections of all but one species (in spring) did not differ among interior, edge, and random sites during both seasons. Our results suggest a homogeneous bird assemblage across UMR floodplain forest in the study area during spring migration and the breeding season, and that individual forest bird species do not seem to be more abundant in interior or edge areas as we defined them.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2025

Beyond the mangroves: A global synthesis of tidal forested wetland types, drivers and future information opportunities

There is increasing awareness of the global diversity of tidal forested wetlands (TFWs) and their significance in the provision of ecosystem services. These ecosystems, including mangrove forests, tidal freshwater forested wetlands, supratidal forests and transitional forests together span multiple climatic zones, geomorphic settings, and inundation and salinity regimes. We utilise case studies across five continents to demonstrate the state of knowledge among TFWs. Intertidal mangroves are the best-defined of the TFWs thanks to decades of research on their geomorphology, hydrology and ecology across their broad distribution. Non-mangrove forest settings, however, demonstrate more diverse hydrological, biochemical and vegetation conditions. In many cases, non-mangrove forests are situated at upper intertidal or supratidal elevations, where surface waters and groundwater are subject to interactions between tides freshwater inputs. Salinity datasets show variations ranging from tidal freshwater forested wetlands and ‘low-salinity mangroves’ to mesohaline or marine salinities, often with high temporal variability. While the floristic composition of non-mangrove forests vary among biogeographic regions, locally dominant TFW species are commonly distributed beyond the tidal niche into non-tidal wetland and upland forests. This presents challenges for traditional remote sensing approaches to ecosystem mapping, which are mostly lacking for non-mangrove forests. Geomorphic approaches and developments in machine learning offer opportunities to address this.

Preprint↗
USGS2007

Forest Bird Distribution, Density and Trends in the Ka'u Region of Hawai'i Island

An accurate and current measure of population status and trend is necessary for conservation and management efforts. Scott and Kepler (1985) provided a comprehensive review of the status of native Hawaiian birds based on the extensive Hawaii Forest Bird Survey (HFBS) of the main islands (Scott et al. 1986). At that time, they documented declining populations and decreasing ranges for most species, and the extinction of several species over the previous 50 years. Many native bird species continue to decline throughout Hawai`i (Camp et al. In review, Gorresen et al. In prep.). The focus of this study is the mid-to-high elevation rainforest on the southeast windward slopes of Mauna Loa Volcano (Figure 1). Known as Ka`u, the region encompasses forest lands protected by Kamehameha Schools, The Nature Conservancy, Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park (HVNP), and the State of Hawai'i's Ka`u Forest Reserve, Kapapala Forest Reserve and Kapapala Cooperative Game Management Area,. Together these lands support one of three main concentrations of native forest birds on the Hawai`i Island (the other two being centered on the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge and Kulani-Keauhou area in the north and central windward part of the island, respectively.) Because this region harbors important populations of native and endangered forest birds in some of the best remaining forest habitat on the island, it has been a focus of forest bird surveys since the 1970s. The Ka`u region was first quantitatively surveyed in 1976 by the Hawaii Forest Bird Survey (Scott et al. 1986). Surveys were conducted by State of Hawai`i Division of Forestry and Wildlife in 1993 and 2002 and by the U.S. National Park Service and the U.S. Geological Survey in 2004 and 2005. In this report, we present analyses of the density, distribution and trends of native and introduced forest bird within the Ka`u region of Hawai`i Island. The analyses cover only those species with sufficient detections to model detection probability and calculate density. These include three endangered native passerines: `Akiapola`au (Hemignathus munroi), Hawai`i Creeper (Oreomystis mana), and Hawai`i `Akepa (Loxops coccineus); five more common native passerines: the Hawai`i `Elepaio (Chasiempis sandwichensis), `Oma`o (Myadestes obscurus), Hawai`i `Amakihi (Hemignathus virens), `I`iwi (Vestiaria coccinea) and `Apapane (Himatione sanguinea); and three non-native species: Red-billed Leiothrix (Leiothrix lutea), Japanese White-eye (Zosterops japonicus), and Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis).

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Comparing simulated carbon budget of a Lei bamboo forest with flux tower data

Bamboo forest ecosystem is the part of the forest ecosystem. The distribution area of bamboo forest is limited, but in somewhere, like south China, it has been cultivate for a long time with human management. As the climate change has been take great effect on forest carbon budget, many researchers pay attention to the carbon budget in bamboo forest. Moreover cultivative management had a significant impact on the bamboo forest carbon budget. In this study, we modified a terrestrial ecosystem model named Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) according the management of Lei bamboo forest. Some management, like fertilization, shoots harvesting and organic mulching in winter, had been incorporated into model. Then we had compared model results with the observation data from a Lei bamboo flux tower. The simulated and observed results had achieved good consistency. Our simulated Lei bamboo forest yearly net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was 0.41 kgC a -1 of carbon, which is very close to the observation data 0.45 kgC a -1 of carbon. And the monthly simulated results can take the change of carbon budget in each month, similar to the data we got from flux tower. It reflects that the modified IBIS model can characterize the growth of bamboo forest and perform the simulation well. And then two groups of simulations were set to evaluate effects of cultivative managements on Lei bamboo forests carbon budget. And results showed that both fertilization and organic mulching had taken positive effects on Lei bamboo forests carbon sequestration.

Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences↗
USGS2019

Climate, environment, and disturbance history govern resilience of western North American Forests

Before the advent of intensive forest management and fire suppression, western North American forests exhibited a naturally occurring resistance and resilience to wildfires and other disturbances. Resilience, which encompasses resistance, reflects the amount of disruption an ecosystem can withstand before its structure or organization qualitatively shift to a different basin of attraction. In fire-maintained forests, resilience to disturbance events arose primarily from vegetation pattern-disturbance process interactions at several levels of organization. Using evidence from 15 ecoregions, spanning forests from Canada to Mexico, we review the properties of forests that reinforced qualities of resilience and resistance. We show examples of multi-level landscape resilience, of feedbacks within and among levels, and how conditions have changed under climatic and management influences. We highlight geographic similarities and important differences in the structure and organization of historical landscapes, their forest types, and in the conditions that have changed resilience and resistance to abrupt or large-scale disruptions. We discuss the role of the regional climate in episodically or abruptly reorganizing plant and animal biogeography and forest resilience and resistance to disturbances. We give clear examples of these changes and suggest that managing for resilient forests is a construct that strongly depends on scale and human social values. It involves human communities actively working with the ecosystems they depend on, and the processes that shape them, to adapt landscapes, species, and human communities to climate change while maintaining core ecosystem processes and services. Finally, it compels us to embrace management approaches that incorporate ongoing disturbances and anticipated effects of climatic changes, and to support dynamically shifting patchworks of forest and non-forest. Doing so could make these shifting forest conditions and wildfire regimes less disruptive to individuals and society.

western North America↗
USGS2013

Simulating boreal forest carbon dynamics after stand-replacing fire disturbance: insights from a global process-based vegetation model

Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forests. They leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. This forest age dynamics must be included in vegetation models to accurately quantify the role of fire in the historical and current regional forest carbon balance. The present study adapted the global process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the CO 2 emissions from boreal forest fire and the subsequent recovery after a stand-replacing fire; the model represents postfire new cohort establishment, forest stand structure and the self-thinning process. Simulation results are evaluated against observations of three clusters of postfire forest chronosequences in Canada and Alaska. The variables evaluated include: fire carbon emissions, CO 2 fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem exchange), leaf area index, and biometric measurements (aboveground biomass carbon, forest floor carbon, woody debris carbon, stand individual density, stand basal area, and mean diameter at breast height). When forced by local climate and the atmospheric CO 2 history at each chronosequence site, the model simulations generally match the observed CO 2 fluxes and carbon stock data well, with model-measurement mean square root of deviation comparable with the measurement accuracy (for CO 2 flux ~100 g C m −2 yr −1 , for biomass carbon ~1000 g C m −2 and for soil carbon ~2000 g C m −2 ). We find that the current postfire forest carbon sink at the evaluation sites, as observed by chronosequence methods, is mainly due to a combination of historical CO 2 increase and forest succession. Climate change and variability during this period offsets some of these expected carbon gains. The negative impacts of climate were a likely consequence of increasing water stress caused by significant temperature increases that were not matched by concurrent increases in precipitation. Our simulation results demonstrate that a global vegetation model such as ORCHIDEE is able to capture the essential ecosystem processes in fire-disturbed boreal forests and produces satisfactory results in terms of both carbon fluxes and carbon-stock evolution after fire. This makes the model suitable for regional simulations in boreal regions where fire regimes play a key role in the ecosystem carbon balance.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2009

Population trends of native Hawaiian forest birds, 1976–2008: the data and statistical analyses

The Hawaii Forest Bird Interagency Database Project has produced a centralized database of forest bird survey data collected in Hawai`i since the mid-1970s. The database contains over 1.1 million bird observation records of 90 species from almost 600 surveys on the main Hawaiian Islands—a dataset including nearly all surveys from that period. The primary objective has been to determine the status and trends of native Hawaiian forest birds derived from this comprehensive dataset. We generated species-specific density estimates from each survey and tested for changes in population densities over the longest possible temporal period. Although this cumulative data set seems enormous and represents the best available information on status of Hawaiian forest birds, detecting meaningful population distribution, density, and trends for forest birds in Hawai`i has been difficult. These population parameters are best derived from long-term, large-scale, standardized monitoring programs. The basis for long-term population monitoring in Hawai`i was established by the Hawaii Forest Bird Survey of 1976-1983 (Scott et al. 1986). Since then, however, only key areas have been resurveyed, primarily to monitor rare species. The majority of surveys since the early 1980s have been conducted by numerous, independent programs, resulting in some inconsistencies in methodology and sampling that in some cases has been intermittent and usually at limited scale (temporally or spatially). Thus, despite the consolidation of data into a centralized database, our understanding of population patterns is rather limited, especially at the regional and landscape scales. To rectify their deficiency, we present a framework to improve the understanding of forest bird trends in Hawai`i through an overarching monitoring design that allocates sampling at appropriate regional and temporal scales. Despite the limitations of the current monitoring effort, important generalities stand out vividly from the multiplicity of species-specific trends. Overall, in marginal habitats the Hawaiian passerine fauna continues to decline, with populations of most species shrinking in size and distribution. Since the early 1980s, 10 species that were rare at the time may now be extinct, although one, the `Alalā (Corvus hawaiiensis), survives in captivity. Dedicated search effort for the remaining nine species has been inadequate. Of the 22 species remaining, eight have declined, five appear to be stable, two are increasing, and the trend for seven species is unclear. On the bright side, native passerines, including endangered species, appear to be stable or increasing in areas with large tracts of native forest above 1,500 m elevation, even while decreasing in more fragmented or disturbed habitats, particularly at lower elevation. For example, all eight native species resident at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge have shown stable trends or significant increases in density over the long-term. Thus, native birds are ever more restricted to high-elevation forest and woodland refugia. It is these upland habitats that require sustained and all-out restoration to prevent further extinctions of Hawaiian forest birds.

Technical Report↗
USGS2019

Fire, forests and city water supply

Forest landscapes generate 57 percent of runoff worldwide and supply water to more than 4 billion people (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). As the world population continues to increase, there is a strong need to understand how forest processes link together in a cascade to provide people with water services like hydropower, aquaculture, drinking water and flood protection (Carvalho-Santos, Honrado and Hein, 2014). Wildfire is a major disturbance affecting forested watersheds and the water they provide (Box 1) (Paton et al., 2015). Several regions have experienced shifts in wildfires from natural ignition sources (primarily lightning) to ignitions dominated by human activities, especially in areas where populations are increasing (Moritz et al., 2014; Balch et al., 2017). Occasional wildfire is essential for the health and functioning of fire-adapted ecosystems through its effects on nutrient cycling, plant diversity and succession, and pest regulation (Pausas and Keeley, 2019). It also reduces the risk of subsequent wildfires until a forest has accumulated sufficient fuels and conditions are conducive for another fire. Extreme and hazardous wildfires, on the other hand, can cause erosion, gullying, soil loss and flooding – and, in severe cases, even debris flows and flash floods – by removing the protective functions of forests on hillsides (Ebel and Moody, 2017). Extreme wildfires have become more common after decades of fire suppression, allowing forests to become much denser with vegetation and causing more fuels to build up over time. Combined with increasing summer drought, this can have impacts on water yield and the ability of upstream forests to deliver high-quality water because forest vegetation uses less water immediately after fire and, in environments influenced by snow, more snow can accumulate in forest clearings (Kinoshita and Hogue, 2015; Hallema et al., 2019). Therefore, accounting for wildfire impacts on forests in water planning has become a priority for the nexus of fire, water and society or, in other words, the connection between fire risk and water security (Figure 1) (Martin, 2016). In this article, we discuss managed forest landscapes as nature-based solutions for water and explore how fire affects the provision of water-related services.

Unasylva↗
USGS2010

Predicting the retreat and migration of tidal forests along the northern Gulf of Mexico under sea-level rise

Tidal freshwater forests in coastal regions of the southeastern United States are undergoing dieback and retreat from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. In many areas, tidal saltwater forests (mangroves) contrastingly are expanding landward in subtropical coastal reaches succeeding freshwater marsh and forest zones. Hydrological characteristics of these low-relief coastal forests in intertidal settings are dictated by the influence of tidal and freshwater forcing. In this paper, we describe the application of the Sea Level Over Proportional Elevation (SLOPE) model to predict coastal forest retreat and migration from projected sea-level rise based on a proxy relationship of saltmarsh/mangrove area and tidal range. The SLOPE model assumes that the sum area of saltmarsh/mangrove habitat along any given coastal reach is determined by the slope of the landform and vertical tide forcing. Model results indicated that saltmarsh and mangrove migration from sea-level rise will vary by county and watershed but greater in western Gulf States than in the eastern Gulf States where millions of hectares of coastal forest will be displaced over the next century with a near meter rise in relative sea level alone. Substantial losses of coastal forests will also occur in the eastern Gulf but mangrove forests in subtropical zones of Florida are expected to replace retreating freshwater forest and affect regional biodiversity. Accelerated global eustacy from climate change will compound the degree of predicted retreat and migration of coastal forests with expected implications for ecosystem management of State and Federal lands in the absence of adaptive coastal management.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗
USGS2013

Structure and development of old-growth, unmanaged second-growth, and extended rotation Pinus resinosa forests in Minnesota, USA

The structure and developmental dynamics of old-growth forests often serve as important baselines for restoration prescriptions aimed at promoting more complex structural conditions in managed forest landscapes. Nonetheless, long-term information on natural patterns of development is rare for many commercially important and ecologically widespread forest types. Moreover, the effectiveness of approaches recommended for restoring old-growth structural conditions to managed forests, such as the application of extended rotation forestry, has been little studied. This study uses several long-term datasets from old growth, extended rotation, and unmanaged second growth Pinus resinosa (red pine) forests in northern Minnesota, USA, to quantify the range of variation in structural conditions for this forest type and to evaluate the effectiveness of extended rotation forestry at promoting the development of late-successional structural conditions. Long-term tree population data from permanent plots for one of the old-growth stands and the extended rotation stands (87 and 61 years, respectively) also allowed for an examination of the long-term structural dynamics of these systems. Old-growth forests were more structurally complex than unmanaged second-growth and extended rotation red pine stands, due in large part to the significantly higher volumes of coarse woody debris (70.7 vs. 11.5 and 4.7 m 3 /ha, respectively) and higher snag basal area (6.9 vs. 2.9 and 0.5 m 2 /ha, respectively). In addition, old-growth forests, although red pine-dominated, contained a greater abundance of other species, including Pinus strobus , Abies balsamea , and Picea glauca relative to the other stand types examined. These differences between stand types largely reflect historic gap-scale disturbances within the old-growth systems and their corresponding structural and compositional legacies. Nonetheless, extended rotation thinning treatments, by accelerating advancement to larger tree diameter classes, generated diameter distributions more closely approximating those found in old growth within a shorter time frame than depicted in long-term examinations of old-growth structural development. These results suggest that extended rotation treatments may accelerate the development of old-growth structural characteristics, provided that coarse woody debris and snags are deliberately retained and created on site. These and other developmental characteristics of old-growth systems can inform forest management when objectives include the restoration of structural conditions found in late-successional forests.

Minnesota↗
USGS2021

Tamm review: Postfire landscape management in frequent-fire conifer forests of the southwestern United States

The increasing incidence of wildfires across the southwestern United States (US) is altering the contemporary forest management template within historically frequent-fire conifer forests. An increasing fraction of southwestern conifer forests have recently burned, and many of these burned landscapes contain complex mosaics of surviving forest and severely burned patches without surviving conifer trees. These heterogeneous burned landscapes present unique social and ecological challenges. Severely burned patches can present numerous barriers to successful conifer regeneration, and often contain heavy downed fuels which have cascading effects on future fire behavior and conifer regeneration. Conversely, surviving forest patches are increasingly recognized for their value in postfire reforestation but often are overlooked from a management perspective. Here we present a decision-making framework for landscape-scale management of complex postfire landscapes that allows for adaptation to a warming climate and future fire. We focus specifically on historically frequent-fire forests of the southwestern US but make connections to other forest types and other regions. Our framework depends on a spatially-explicit assessment of the mosaic of conifer forest and severely burned patches in the postfire landscape, evaluates likely vegetation trajectories, and identifies critical decision points to direct vegetation change via manipulations of fuels and live vegetation. This framework includes detailed considerations for postfire fuels management (e.g., edge hardening within live forest patches and repeat burning) and for reforestation (e.g., balancing tradeoffs between intensive and extensive planting strategies, establishing patches of seed trees, spatial planning to optimize reforestation success, and improving nursery capacity). In a future of increasing fire activity in forests where repeated low- to moderate-severity fire is essential to ecosystem resilience, the decision-making framework developed here can easily be integrated with existing postfire management strategies to optimize allocation of limited resources and more actively manage burned landscapes.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗
USGS2006

Optimal regeneration planning for old-growth forest: addressing scientific uncertainty in endangered species recovery through adaptive management

Stochastic and structural uncertainties about forest dynamics present challenges in the management of ephemeral habitat conditions for endangered forest species. Maintaining critical foraging and breeding habitat for the endangered red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis) requires an uninterrupted supply of old-growth forest. We constructed and optimized a dynamic forest growth model for the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge (Georgia, USA) with the objective of perpetuating a maximum stream of old-growth forest habitat. Our model accommodates stochastic disturbances and hardwood succession rates, and uncertainty about model structure. We produced a regeneration policy that was indexed by current forest state and by current weight of evidence among alternative model forms. We used adaptive stochastic dynamic programming, which anticipates that model probabilities, as well as forest states, may change through time, with consequent evolution of the optimal decision for any given forest state. In light of considerable uncertainty about forest dynamics, we analyzed a set of competing models incorporating extreme, but plausible, parameter values. Under any of these models, forest silviculture practices currently recommended for the creation of woodpecker habitat are suboptimal. We endorse fully adaptive approaches to the management of endangered species habitats in which predictive modeling, monitoring, and assessment are tightly linked.

Forest Science↗
USGS2021

Adapting western North American forests to climate change and wildfires: Ten common questions

We review science-based adaptation strategies for western North American (wNA) forests that include restoring active fire regimes and fostering resilient structure and composition of forested landscapes. As part of the review, we address common questions associated with climate adaptation and realignment treatments that run counter to a broad consensus in the literature. These include the following: (1) Are the effects of fire exclusion overstated? If so, are treatments unwarranted and even counterproductive? (2) Is forest thinning alone sufficient to mitigate wildfire hazard? (3) Can forest thinning and prescribed burning solve the problem? (4) Should active forest management, including forest thinning, be concentrated in the wildland urban interface (WUI)? (5) Can wildfires on their own do the work of fuel treatments? (6) Is the primary objective of fuel reduction treatments to assist in future firefighting response and containment? (7) Do fuel treatments work under extreme fire weather? (8) Is the scale of the problem too great? Can we ever catch up? (9) Will planting more trees mitigate climate change in wNA forests? And (10) is post-fire management needed or even ecologically justified? Based on our review of the scientific evidence, a range of proactive management actions are justified and necessary to keep pace with changing climatic and wildfire regimes and declining forest heterogeneity after severe wildfires. Science-based adaptation options include the use of managed wildfire, prescribed burning, and coupled mechanical thinning and prescribed burning as is consistent with land management allocations and forest conditions. Although some current models of fire management in wNA are averse to short-term risks and uncertainties, the long-term environmental, social, and cultural consequences of wildfire management primarily grounded in fire suppression are well documented, highlighting an urgency to invest in intentional forest management and restoration of active fire regimes.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2024

Spatial differences in predicted Phalaris arundinacea (reed canarygrass) occurrence in floodplain forest understories

Reed canarygrass ( Phalaris arundinacea L.) is one of the most common invaders of floodplains and wetlands in North America. In the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, invasion by reed canarygrass in forest understories can inhibit forest regeneration when gaps form in the overstory. Understanding the distribution of reed canarygrass in forest understories is essential for effective management and control. We used an ensemble of species distribution models including Bayesian additive regression trees, boosted trees, and random forest algorithms to predict habitat suitability for reed canarygrass in forest understories across the Upper Mississippi River floodplain (~41,000 ha). Data from forest inventory study plots with reed canarygrass presence and absence were combined with 10 hypothesized environmental predictors of reed canarygrass invasion. We applied three approaches to better understand and incorporate the influence of spatial autocorrelation among our predictor variables, including random cross-validation, spatial cross-validation, and spatial cross-validation with Euclidean distance fields. Flood frequency, distance to contiguous floodplain, distance to forest edge, and distance to invaded wet meadow were among the most important environmental predictors across the three algorithms. Generally, the mean probability of reed canarygrass presence decreased with increasing flood depth, distance to contiguous floodplain, distance to invaded wet meadow, forest cover, and forest height, while relationships with other predictors were more variable. The ensemble of the three models (i.e., the average prediction) was used to map and summarize potential reed canary grass habitat suitability across the landscape. The maps generated quantified the habitat suitability for reed canarygrass and areas of agreement among the models in forest understories across the floodplain. This information can be used to better understand the extent of invasion, prioritize restoration efforts, and develop further research.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisc↗
USGS2015

Soil carbon storage following road removal and timber harvesting in redwood forests

Soil carbon storage plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and is important for sustaining forest productivity. Removal of unpaved forest roads has the potential for increasing carbon storage in soils on forested terrain as treated sites revegetate and soil properties improve on the previously compacted road surfaces. We compared soil organic carbon (SOC) content at several depths on treated roads to SOC in adjacent second-growth forests and old-growth redwood forests in California, determined whether SOC in the upper 50 cm of soil varies with the type of road treatment, and assessed the relative importance of site-scale and landscape-scale variables in predicting SOC accumulation in treated road prisms and second-growth redwood forests. Soils were sampled at 5, 20, and 50 cm depths on roads treated by two methods (decommissioning and full recontouring), and in adjacent second-growth and old-growth forests in north coastal California. Road treatments spanned a period of 32 years, and covered a range of geomorphic and vegetative conditions. SOC decreased with depth at all sites. Treated roads on convex sites exhibited higher SOC than on concave sites, and north aspect sites had higher SOC than south aspect sites. SOC at 5, 20, and 50 cm depths did not differ significantly between decommissioned roads (treated 18–32 years previous) and fully recontoured roads (treated 2–12 years previous). Nevertheless, stepwise multiple regression models project higher SOC developing on fully recontoured roads in the next few decades. The best predictors for SOC on treated roads and in second-growth forest incorporated aspect, vegetation type, soil depth, lithology, distance from the ocean, years since road treatment (for the road model) and years since harvest (for the forest model). The road model explained 48% of the variation in SOC in the upper 50 cm of mineral soils and the forest model, 54%

California↗