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USGS2005

Chapter J: Issues and challenges in the application of geostatistics and spatial-data analysis to the characterization of sand-and-gravel resources

Sand-and-gravel (aggregate) resources are a critical component of the Nation's infrastructure, yet aggregate-mining technologies lag far behind those of metalliferous mining and other sectors. Deposit-evaluation and site-characterization methodologies are antiquated, and few serious studies of the potential applications of spatial-data analysis and geostatistics have been published. However, because of commodity usage and the necessary proximity of a mine to end use, aggregate-resource exploration and evaluation differ fundamentally from comparable activities for metalliferous ores. Acceptable practices, therefore, can reflect this cruder scale. The increasing use of computer technologies is colliding with the need for sand-and-gravel mines to modernize and improve their overall efficiency of exploration, mine planning, scheduling, automation, and other operations. The emergence of megaquarries in the 21st century will also be a contributing factor. Preliminary research into the practical applications of exploratory-data analysis (EDA) have been promising. For example, EDA was used to develop a linear-regression equation to forecast freeze-thaw durability from absorption values for Lower Paleozoic carbonate rocks mined for crushed aggregate from quarries in Oklahoma. Applications of EDA within a spatial context, a method of spatial-data analysis, have also been promising, as with the investigation of undeveloped sand-and-gravel resources in the sedimentary deposits of Pleistocene Lake Bonneville, Utah. Formal geostatistical investigations of sand-and-gravel deposits are quite rare, and the primary focus of those studies that have been completed is on the spatial characterization of deposit thickness and its subsequent effect on ore reserves. A thorough investigation of a gravel deposit in an active aggregate-mining area in central Essex, U.K., emphasized the problems inherent in the geostatistical characterization of particle-size-analysis data. Beyond such factors as common drilling methods jeopardizing the accuracy of the size-distribution curve, the application of formal geostatistical principles has other limitations. Many of the variables used in evaluating gravel deposits, including such sedimentologic parameters as sorting and such United Soil Classification System parameters as gradation coefficient, are nonadditive. Also, uniform sampling methods, such as drilling, are relatively uncommon, and sampling is generally accomplished by a combination of boreholes, water-well logs, test pits, trenches, stratigraphic columns from exposures, and, possibly, some geophysical cross sections. When evaluated in consideration of the fact that uniform mining blocks are also uncommon in practice, subsequent complexities in establishment of the volume/variance relation are inevitable. Several approaches exist to confront the limitations of geostatistical methods in evaluating sand-and-gravel deposits. Initially, we must acknowledge the practical requirements of the aggregate industry, as well as the limitations of the data collected by that industry, as a function of what the industry requires at the practical level, and consider that broader acceptance of formal geostatistics may require modifications of typical exploration and sampling protocols. Future investigations should utilize data from the full spectrum of sand-and-gravel deposits (flood plain, glacial, catastrophic flood, and marine), integrate such other disci plines as sedimentology and geophysics into the research, develop commodity-specific approaches to nonadditive variables, and include the results of comparative drilling.

Bulletin↗

USGS2016

Suspended-sediment concentrations, bedload, particle sizes, surrogate measurements, and annual sediment loads for selected sites in the lower Minnesota River Basin, water years 2011 through 2016

Accurate measurements of fluvial sediment are important for assessing stream ecological health, calculating flood levels, computing sediment budgets, and managing and protecting water resources. Sediment-enriched rivers in Minnesota are a concern among Federal, State, and local governments because turbidity and sediment-laden waters are the leading impairments and affect more than 6,000 miles of rivers in Minnesota. The suspended sediment in the lower Minnesota River is deleterious, contributing about 75 to 90 percent of the suspended sediment being deposited into Lake Pepin. The Saint Paul District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Lower Minnesota River Watershed District collaborate to maintain a navigation channel on the lower 14.7 miles of the Minnesota River through scheduled dredging operations. The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has adopted a sediment-reduction strategy to reduce sediment in the Minnesota River by 90 percent by 2040. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, and the Lower Minnesota River Watershed District, collected suspended-sediment, bedload, and particle-size samples at five sites in the lower Minnesota River Basin during water years 2011 through 2014 and surrogate measurements of acoustic backscatter at one of these sites on the lower Minnesota River during water years 2012 through 2016 to quantify sediment loads and improve understanding of sediment-transport relations. Annual sediment loads were computed for calendar years 2011 through 2014. Data collected from water years 2011 through 2014 indicated that two tributaries, Le Sueur River and High Island Creek, had the highest sediment yield and concentrations of suspended sediment. These tributaries also had greater stream gradients than the sites on the Minnesota River. Suspended fines were greater than suspended sand at all sites in the study area. The range of median particle sizes matched the range for stream gradients from greatest to smallest. Bedload ranged from 3 to 20 percent of the total load at the Le Sueur River, Minnesota River at Mankato, and High Island Creek and was less than 1 percent of the total load at the Minnesota River near Jordan and at Fort Snelling State Park. The reach of the Minnesota River between Mankato and Jordan is a major source of sediment, with the sediment yield at Jordan being two and a half times greater than at Mankato. Between Jordan and Fort Snelling, the sediment yield decreases substantially, which indicates that the Minnesota River in this reach is a sink for sediment. Surrogate measurements (acoustic backscatter) collected with suspended-sediment concentration data from water years 2012 through 2016 from the Minnesota River at Fort Snelling State Park indicated strong relations between the acoustic backscatter and suspended-sediment concentrations. These results point to the dynamic nature of sediment aggradation, degradation, and transport in the Minnesota River Basin. The analyses described in this report will improve the understanding of sediment-transport relations and sediment budgets in the Minnesota River Basin.

Minnesota↗

USGS2023

Source contributions to suspended sediment and particulate selenium export from the Loutsenhizer Arroyo and Sunflower Drain watersheds in Colorado

Selenium in aquatic ecosystems of the lower Gunnison River Basin in Colorado is affecting the recovery of populations of endangered, native fish species. Dietary exposure is the primary pathway for bioaccumulation of selenium in fish, and particulate selenium can be consumed directly by fish or by the invertebrates on which fish feed. Although selenium can be incorporated into particulate matter via biogeochemical processes, particulate selenium can also enter aquatic ecosystems of the lower Gunnison River Basin from sediments derived from the selenium-rich Mancos Shale. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, conducted this study during 2018–19 to identify sources of selenium-rich suspended sediments from two watersheds underlain by Mancos Shale: Loutsenhizer Arroyo and Sunflower Drain, which is a locally known agricultural drainage near the municipality of Delta, Colorado. A multipronged approach (fieldwork, laboratory work, and computer modeling) referred to as “sediment fingerprinting” was used to evaluate sources of suspended sediments in the streams flowing out of the two studied watersheds. Four potential source types for suspended sediments were identified and sampled (using soil plugs) within the watersheds: rangelands, agricultural fields, arroyo walls, and streambanks. The sediment fingerprinting approach used elemental concentrations and naturally occurring fallout radionuclides as tracers to apportion percent contributions from the four source types of suspended sediments found in streamflow from both watersheds. To determine the dominant sources of suspended sediment in streamflow from both watersheds, a mathematical “unmixing” model was used. Unmixing models apportion source percentages to samples of material in which those sources are mixed. These models used elemental and isotopic data in the suspended sediments to unmix them into proportional contributions from source types. The results indicated that arroyo walls and streambanks generally dominated as sources of the suspended sediment. Arroyo walls and streambanks were channel-adjacent sources, with sediments mobilized by water flowing within the stream channel. These sources accounted for greater than 50 percent of suspended sediment in all but one sample and accounted for 100 percent of suspended sediment in 5 of the 11 samples collected. Rangeland and agricultural field sources were located in uplands outside of stream channels and were detected more often during the non-irrigation season. Rangeland and agricultural field sources each were found in 5 of the 11 samples collected. Concentrations of selenium in sediment-source samples were comparatively greater in streambanks and lower in rangelands, with agricultural fields and arroyo walls being intermediate. As a result, source apportionments for particulate selenium skewed towards sources adjacent to stream channels more than for suspended sediments. Water imports for irrigation have changed the hydrology of the watersheds, and a notable fraction of imported water passes through the watersheds rapidly. The rapid flowthrough water during the irrigation season likely contributes heavily to sediment erosion and transport in Loutsenhizer Arroyo and Sunflower Drain, particularly from channel-adjacent sources of sediment. Decreases in irrigation season streamflow, at least in Loutsenhizer Arroyo, may have decreased sediment erosion and transport during the 2018–20 irrigation seasons compared to the 2015–17 seasons.

Colorado↗

USGS2010

Geochemical evolution of a high arsenic, alkaline pit-lake in the Mother Lode Gold District, California

The Harvard orebody at the Jamestown gold mine, located along the Melones fault zone in the southern Mother Lode gold district, California, was mined in an open-pit operation from 1987 to 1994. Dewatering during mining produced a hydrologic cone of depression; recovery toward the premining ground-water configuration produced a monomictic pit lake with alkaline Ca-Mg-HCO 3 -SO 4 –type pit water, concentrations of As up to 1,200 μ g/L, and total dissolved solids (TDS) up to 2,000 mg/L. In this study, pit-wall rocks were mapped and chemically analyzed to provide a context for evaluating observed variability in the composition of the pit-lake waters in relationship to seasonal weather patterns. An integrated hydrogeochemical model of pit-lake evolution based on observations of pit-lake volume, water composition (samples collected between 1998–2000, 2004), and processes occurring on pit walls was developed in three stages using the computer code PHREEQC. Stage 1 takes account of seasonally variable water fluxes from precipitation, evaporation, springs, and ground water, as well as lake stratification and mixing processes. Stage 2 adds CO 2 fluxes and wall-rock interactions, and stage 3 assesses the predictive capability of the model. Two major geologic units in fault contact comprise the pit walls. The hanging wall is composed of interlayered slate, metavolcanic and metavolcaniclastic rocks, and schists; the footwall rocks are chlorite-actinolite and talc-tremolite schists generated by metasomatism of greenschist-facies mafic and ultramafic igneous rocks. Alteration in the ore zone provides evidence for mineralizing fluids that introduced CO 2 , S, and K 2 O, and redistributed SiO 2 . Arsenian pyrite associated with the alteration weathers to produce goethite and jarosite on pit walls and in joints, as well as copiapite and hexahydrite efflorescences that accumulate on wall-rock faces during dry California summers. All of these pyrite weathering products incorporate arsenic at concentrations from <100 up to 1,200 ppm. In the pit lake, pH and TDS reach seasonal highs in the summer epilimnion; pH is lowest in the summer hypolimnion. Arsenic and bicarbonate covary in the hypolimnion, rising as stratification proceeds and declining during winter rains. The computational model suggests that water fluxes alone do not account for this seasonal variability. Loss of CO 2 to the atmosphere, interaction with pit walls including washoff of efflorescent salts during the first flush and seasonal rainfall, and arsenic sorption appear to contribute to the observed pit-lake characteristics.

California↗

USGS2015

Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting land cover change estimation by use of the National Land Cover Dataset and raingage network partitioning analysis

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Chicago District, is responsible for monitoring and computation of the quantity of Lake Michigan water diverted by the State of Illinois. As part of this effort, the USACE uses the Hydrological Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF) with measured meteorological data inputs to estimate runoff from the Lake Michigan diversion special contributing areas (SCAs), the North Branch Chicago River above Niles and the Little Calumet River above South Holland gaged basins, and the Lower Des Plaines and the Calumet ungaged that historically drained to Lake Michigan. These simulated runoffs are used for estimating the total runoff component from the diverted Lake Michigan watershed, which is accountable to the total diversion by the State of Illinois. The runoff is simulated from three interpreted land cover types in the HSPF models: impervious, grass, and forest. The three land cover data types currently in use were derived from aerial photographs acquired in the early 1990s. This study used the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) and developed an automated process for determining the area of the three land cover types, thereby allowing faster updating of future models, and for evaluating land cover changes by use of historical NLCD datasets. The study also carried out a raingage partitioning analysis so that the segmentation of land cover and rainfall in each modeled unit is directly applicable to the HSPF modeling. Historical and existing impervious, grass, and forest land acreages partitioned by percentages covered by two sets of raingages for the Lake Michigan diversion SCAs, gaged basins, and ungaged basins are presented.

Illinois↗

USGS1994

Verification of a national water data base using a geographic information system

The National Water Data Exchange (NAWDEX) was developed to assist users of water-resource data in the identification, location, and acquisition of data. The Master Water Data Index (MWDI) of NAWDEX currently indexes the data collected by 423 organizations from nearly 500,000 sites throughout the United Stales. The utilization of new computer technologies permit the distribution of the MWDI to the public on compact disc. In addition, geographic information systems (GIS) are now available that can store and analyze these data in a spatial format. These recent innovations could increase access and add new capabilities to the MWDI. Before either of these technologies could be employed, however, a quality-assurance check of the MWDI needed to be performed. The MWDI resides on a mainframe computer in a tabular format. It was copied onto a workstation and converted to a GIS format. The GIS was used to identify errors in the MWDI and produce reports that summarized these errors. The summary reports were sent to the responsible contributing agencies along with instructions for submitting their corrections to the NAWDEX Program Office. The MWDI administrator received reports that summarized all of the errors identified. Of the 494,997 sites checked, 93,440 sites had at least one error (18.9 percent error rate).

Open-File Report↗

USGS1977

Water resources data for California, water year 1976; Volume 1: Colorado River basin, southern Great Basin from Mexican border to Mono Lake basin, and Pacific Slope basins from Tijuana River to Santa Maria River

Water-resources data for the 1976 water year for California consist of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; stage, contents, and water quality of lakes and reservoirs; records of water levels in selected observation wells; and selected chemical analyses of ground water. Records for a few pertinent streamflow and water-quality stations in bordering States are also included. The records were collected and computed by the Water Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey under the direction of Lee R. Peterson, district chief; Winchell Smith, assistant district chief for hydrologic data; and Leonard N. Jorgensen, chief of the basic-data section. These data, a contribution to the National Water Data System, were collected by the Geological Survey and cooperating local, State, and Federal agencies in California.

California↗

USGS1977

Water resources data for California, water year 1976; Volume 2: Pacific Slope basins from Arroyo Grande to Oregon State line except Central Valley

California↗

USGS1977

Water resources data for California, water year 1976; Volume 3, Southern Central Valley basins and the Great Basin from Walker River to Truckee River

California↗

USGS1978

Water resources data for California, water year 1976; Volume 4: Northern Central Valley basins and the Great Basin from Honey Lake basin to Oregon State line

California↗

USGS2000

Simulation of the shallow hydrologic system in the vicinity of Middle Genesee Lake, Wisconsin, using analytic elements and parameter estimation

Middle Genesee Lake is a ground-water flow-through lake located in a developing area in southeastern Wisconsin. Because the lake is in good connection with the shallow ground-water system, hydrologic stresses to the shallow ground-water system could adversely affect the lake system. In order to assess the effects of potential stresses on the lake, a study was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Middle Genesee Lake Management District. The objective of the study was to identify areas that contribute ground water to the lake and estimate the hydrologic budget of the lake and hydraulic parameters affecting ground-water flow. A two-dimensional, steady-state analytic element model of the lake and surrounding area was developed using the computer code GFLOW. A parameter estimation model, UCODE, was used to optimize the calibration to measured water levels and streamflow. The calibrated model was used to evaluate the effect of three hypothetical stress scenarios on the stage of Middle Genesee Lake; the simulations were linked to UCODE, which formally incorporated parameter uncertainty into 95-percent confidence intervals around the simulated value. The scenarios included: (1) pumping from upgradient irrigation wells, (2) pumping from Lower Genesee Lake to lower lake levels, and (3) reduction in recharge resulting from development. The results of the simulations demonstrated that lake levels could be affected by hydrologic stresses in the shallow hydrologic system, with effects ranging from a 2.7 feet decline in lake stage resulting from pumping in Lower Genesee Lake to a 0.1 feet decline in lake stage from development in part of the upgradient recharge area. The range of lake stage decline increased when parameter uncertainty was included, from a decline of 3.1 feet for pumping from Lower Genesee Lake to no reduction in lake stage for the development in the recharge area. Whereas these simulated effects are within the natural variation in lake stage, they represent a systematic reduction of ground-water flow to the lake. Therefore, these hypothetical stresses are expected to establish a new, lower, baseline lake stage over which the natural variation due to climatic effects are added and subtracted.

Wisconsin↗

USGS1997

Occurrence of phosphorus, other nutrients, and triazine herbicides in water from the Hillsdale Lake basin, Northeast Kansas, May 1994 through May 1995

An investigation of the occurrence of phosporus, other nutrients, and triazine herbicides in water samples from the Hillsdale Lake Basin in northeast Kansas was conducted from May 1994 through May 1995. Point-source and nonpoint-source contributions of these water-quality constituents were estimated by conducting synoptic sampling at 48 sites in the basin during five periods of low- flow conditions. Samples were collected for the determination of nutrients, including total phosphorus as phosphorus, dissolved orthophosphate as phosphorus, total nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen, and total ammonia plus organic nitrogen as nitrogen, and for selected triazine herbicides. On the basis of criteria developed by the Kansas Department of Health and Environment, the Hillsdale Water-Quality Protection Project established a goal to maintain water quality in the tributaries of the Hillsdale Lake Basin at a mean annual low-flow total phosphorus concentration of 0.05 mg/L (milligrams per liter). The mean low- flow total phosphorus concentration of water samples collected in the Big Bull Creek (which includes drainage from Martin Creek), Rock Creek, Little Bull Creek, Wade Branch, and Smith Branch subbasins during low-flow conditions ranged from 0.05 to 4.9 mg/L during this study. Of the 44 sites sampled during low flow, 95 percent had low-flow total phosphorus concentrations larger than the 0.05-mg/L criterion. Discharges from wastewater- treatment plants located in Big Bull Creek and Martin Creek subbasins and the Little Bull Creek subbasin affected nutrient concentrations. Nutrient concentrations in water samples collected from the subbasins not affected by point-source discharges generally were smaller than those in the Big Bull Creek and Little Bull Creek subbasins. Estimated annual low-flow phosphorus loads computed at sampling sites located at the outlet of the subbasins show that the Big Bull Creeksubbasin, which includes drainage from the Martin Creek subbasin, had the largest estimate annual low-flow load, 2,740 kg/yr (kilograms per year).Rock Creek, Little Bull Creek, Wade Branch, and Smith Branch subbasins contributed less annual low-flow phosphorus load, 175, 161, 234, and 22kg/yr, respectively. With the exception of the Smith Branch subbasin, the largest triazine herbicide concentrations occurred in water samples collectedduring May 1994 and May 1995. During May 1994, 10 of 17 sampling sites in the Big Bull Creek and Martin Creek subbasins, 5 of 6 sites in theRock Creek subbasin, and 4 of 10 sites in the Little Bull Creek subbasin had triazine herbicide concentrations in water larger than the U.S.Environmental Protection Agency's Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL), which is an annual mean 3.0 ug/L (micrograms per liter) for atrazine indrinking water. During May 1995, 7 of 19 sites in the Big Bull Creek and Martin Creek subbasins, 5 of 6 sites in the Rock Creek subbasin, 1 of 12 sites in the Little Bull Creek subbasin, and 2 of 4 sites in the Wade Branch subbasin had samples with trazine herbicide concentrations larger than the MCL.Water samples collected in the Rock Creek subbasins had the largest mean triazine herbicide concentrations during May 1994 and May 1995, 6.4 and 4.5 ug/L, respectively.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2005

Suspended sediment fluxes in a tidal wetland: Measurement, controlling factors, and error analysis

Suspended sediment fluxes to and from tidal wetlands are of increasing concern because of habitat restoration efforts, wetland sustainability as sea level rises, and potential contaminant accumulation. We measured water and sediment fluxes through two channels on Browns Island, at the landward end of San Francisco Bay, United States, to determine the factors that control sediment fluxes on and off the island. In situ instrumentation was deployed between October 10 and November 13, 2003. Acoustic Doppler current profilers and the index velocity method were employed to calculate water fluxes. Suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) were determined with optical sensors and cross-sectional water sampling. All procedures were analyzed for their contribution to total error in the flux measurement. The inability to close the water balance and determination of constituent concentration were identified as the main sources of error; total error was 27% for net sediment flux. The water budget for the island was computed, with an unaccounted input of 0.20 m 3 s −1 (22% of mean inflow), after considering channel flow, change in water storage, evapotranspiration, and precipitation. The net imbalance may be a combination of groundwater seepage, overland flow, and flow through minor channels. Change of island water storage, caused by local variations in water surface elevation, dominated the tidally averaged water flux. These variations were mainly caused by wind and barometric pressure change, which alter regional water levels throughout the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. Peak instantaneous ebb flow was 35% greater than peak flood flow, indicating an ebbdominant system, though dominance varied with the spring-neap cycle. SSC were controlled by wind-wave resuspension adjacent to the island and local tidal currents that mobilized sediment from the channel bed. During neap tides sediment was imported onto the island but during spring tides sediment was exported because the main channel became ebb dominant. Over the 34-d monitoring period 14,000 kg of suspended sediment were imported through the two channels. The water imbalance may affect the sediment balance if the unmeasured water transport pathways are capable of transporting large amounts of sediment. We estimate a maximum of 2,800 kg of sediment may have been exported through unmeasured pathways, giving a minimum ent import of 11,200 kg. Sediment flux measurements provide insight on tidal to fortnightly marsh sedimentation processes, especially in complex systems where sedimentation is spatially and temporally variable.

California↗

USGS1974

Estimating the “thickness” of the Boulder Batholith, Montana, from heat-flow and heat-productivity data

Estimates of minimum thickness of the Boulder batholith, computed using the linear relation between heat flow and heat productivity and assuming constant heat productivity with depth, are highly nonspecific. They can vary between about 3 and 20 km, depending on values of surface-rock heat productivity and values of assumed contribution of nonbatholith heat sources (such as lower crustal and upper mantle) to the measured surface heat flow used in the calculations. Models involving radiogenic heat sources decreasing with depth in the batholith lead to significantly greater estimates of thickness by as much as a factor of two or more. A reappraisal of data and arguments related to earlier conflicting estimates, based only on one heat-flow determination and within the context of several newly published additional heat-flow measurements, indicates that the previous differences of opinion are negligible and acceptable, in view of the enormous uncertainties inherent in the method of estimation.

Geology↗

USGS2008

Ground-motion modeling of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake, part II: Ground-motion estimates for the 1906 earthquake and scenario events

We estimate the ground motions produce by the 1906 San Francisco earthquake making use of the recently developed Song et al. (2008) source model that combines the available geodetic and seismic observations and recently constructed 3D geologic and seismic velocity models. Our estimates of the ground motions for the 1906 earthquake are consistent across five ground-motion modeling groups employing different wave propagation codes and simulation domains. The simulations successfully reproduce the main features of the Boatwright and Bundock (2005) ShakeMap, but tend to over predict the intensity of shaking by 0.1-0.5 modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) units. Velocity waveforms at sites throughout the San Francisco Bay Area exhibit characteristics consistent with rupture directivity, local geologic conditions (e.g., sedimentary basins), and the large size of the event (e.g., durations of strong shaking lasting tens of seconds). We also compute ground motions for seven hypothetical scenarios rupturing the same extent of the northern San Andreas fault, considering three additional hypocenters and an additional, random distribution of slip. Rupture directivity exerts the strongest influence on the variations in shaking, although sedimentary basins do consistently contribute to the response in some locations, such as Santa Rosa, Livermore, and San Jose. These scenarios suggest that future large earthquakes on the northern San Andreas fault may subject the current San Francisco Bay urban area to stronger shaking than a repeat of the 1906 earthquake. Ruptures propagating southward towards San Francisco appear to expose more of the urban area to a given intensity level than do ruptures propagating northward.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS1978

Present and potential sediment yields in the Yampa River Basin, Colorado and Wyoming

Average annual suspended- and total-sediment loads in streamflow were determined by the flow-duration sediment-transport-curve method at 18 sites in the Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming. These computations indicate that about 2.0 million tons of sediment are carried by the Yampa River at Deerlodge Park during an average year. Significant areal differences in the sediment yield from various parts of the basin also were determined. The lower Little Snake River subbasin contributes about 60 percent of the total basin sediment yield, although it represents less than 35 percent of the area and supplies less than 3 percent of the streamflow. In contrast, the upland (eastern) one-third of the basin contributes only about 14 percent of the sediment yield but 76 percent of the streamflow. Projected economic development of the basin, especially surface mining of coal, will impact the physical environment. Depending upon the amount and location of land disturbed, an estimated 10 ,000 to 30,000 tons per year of additional sediment will be contributed to the main-stem Yampa River. (Woodard-USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1996

Geomagnetic storms, the Dst ring-current myth and lognormal distributions

The definition of geomagnetic storms dates back to the turn of the century when researchers recognized the unique shape of the H-component field change upon averaging storms recorded at low latitude observatories. A generally accepted modeling of the storm field sources as a magnetospheric ring current was settled about 30 years ago at the start of space exploration and the discovery of the Van Allen belt of particles encircling the Earth. The Dst global 'ring-current' index of geomagnetic disturbances, formulated in that period, is still taken to be the definitive representation for geomagnetic storms. Dst indices, or data from many world observatories processed in a fashion paralleling the index, are used widely by researchers relying on the assumption of such a magnetospheric current-ring depiction. Recent in situ measurements by satellites passing through the ring-current region and computations with disturbed magnetosphere models show that the Dst storm is not solely a main-phase to decay-phase, growth to disintegration, of a massive current encircling the Earth. Although a ring current certainly exists during a storm, there are many other field contributions at the middle-and low-latitude observatories that are summed to show the 'storm' characteristic behavior in Dst at these observatories. One characteristic of the storm field form at middle and low latitudes is that Dst exhibits a lognormal distribution shape when plotted as the hourly value amplitude in each time range. Such distributions, common in nature, arise when there are many contributors to a measurement or when the measurement is a result of a connected series of statistical processes. The amplitude-time displays of Dst are thought to occur because the many time-series processes that are added to form Dst all have their own characteristic distribution in time. By transforming the Dst time display into the equivalent normal distribution, it is shown that a storm recovery can be predicted with remarkable accuracy from measurements made during the Dst growth phase. In the lognormal formulation, the mean, standard deviation and field count within standard deviation limits become definitive Dst storm parameters.

Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics↗

USGS2002

Consistency of patterns in concentration‐discharge plots

Concentration‐discharge (c‐Q) plots have been used to infer how flow components such as event water, soil water, and groundwater mix to produce the observed episodic hydrochemical response of small catchments. Because c‐Q plots are based only on observed streamflow and solute concentration, their interpretation requires assumptions about the relative volume, hydrograph timing, and solute concentration of the streamflow end‐members. Evans and Davies [1998] present a taxonomy of c‐Q loops resulting from three‐component conservative mixing. Their analysis, based on a fixed template of end‐member hydrograph volume, timing, and concentration, suggests a unique relationship between c‐Q loop form and the rank order of end‐member concentrations. Many catchments exhibit variability in component contributions to storm flow in response to antecedent conditions or rainfall characteristics, but the effects of such variation on c‐Q relationships have not been studied systematically. Starting with a “baseline” condition similar to that assumed by Evans and Davies [1998] , we use a simple computer model to characterize the variability in c‐Q plot patterns resulting from variation in end‐member volume, timing, and solute concentration. Variability in these three factors can result in more than one c‐Q loop shape for a given rank order of end‐member solute concentrations. The number of resulting hysteresis patterns and their relative frequency depends on the rank order of solute concentrations and on their separation in absolute value. In ambiguous cases the c‐Q loop shape is determined by the relative “prominence” of the event water versus soil water components. This “prominence” is broadly defined as a capacity to influence the total streamflow concentration and may result from a combination of end‐member volume, timing, or concentration. The modeling results indicate that plausible hydrological variability in field situations can confound the interpretation of c‐Q plots, even when fundamental end‐member mixing assumptions are satisfied.

Water Resources Research↗