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In 1916, Swedish geologist Ernst Jakob Lennart von Post delivered a provocative lecture in Oslo, Norway, advocating the use of pollen grains in bog sediments as indicators of past vegetation and climate. The lecture spawned many applications and represents a landmark in multidisciplinary science.
Using Alaskan lake sediment oxygen isotope records (δ 18 O), which trace the δ 18 O of precipitation, we establish that abrupt atmospheric shifts occurred during the last deglacial period in the North Pacific-Arctic. The robust lake δ 18 O chronologies confidently correlate Younger-Dryas (YD) atmospheric adjustments in Alaska with Greenland ice-core records and their seasonal sensitivity are consistent with cooling during winter. In contrast, abrupt δ 18 O decreases during the late Holocene observed in our records, of similar magnitude as the YD, are best explained by atmospheric modes involving long-distance transport of sub-tropical Pacific moisture. Our sediment cores are among the most reliably dated records yet produced in the circum-Arctic and show that similar decreases in δ 18 O of winter precipitation during the YD and late Holocene were driven by different atmospheric teleconnections. These results underscore major roles for seasonality and atmospheric patterns in the conceptual understanding of global scale climate oscillations, both past and future.
In high latitudes the large difference between the mean annual temperature at the ground surface and in the unfrozen sediments beneath bodies of water can affect ground temperatures to depths of several hundred feet. The effect is of particular interest near the edge of the ocean where it depends upon the magnitude of the temperature difference between the land surface and ocean bottom, the thermal properties of the ground materials, and past changes in climate and/or shore-line configuration. Theoretical considerations suggest that, except where there are transgressing shore lines, permafrost to depths greater than about 100 feet beneath the ocean bottom is not to be expected at points farther than a few thousand feet offshore. Similar considerations indicate that geothermal installations along the Arctic coast can give information regarding post-Pleistocene shore-line changes. The geothermal effects of bodies of water offer an explanation for the anomalously large outward earth-heat flow recently reported by A. D. Misener for Resolute Bay, Cornwallis Island, N. W. T., Canada.
We studied shrub communities in the Panamint Mountains of the Mojave Desert to determine whether vegetational changes after disturbance can be characterized as succession according to modern successional theory. We found, on a variety of disturbed and undisturbed sites, that the rate of change was a function of the type and age of disturbance. Recent debris—flow deposits were colonized by shrub assemblages of different species composition than those on the surrounding, older debris—flow deposits and other geomorphically stable surfaces. Colonization of human—disturbed sites was highly variable, but species compositions were different from the predisturbance species composition. In Grayia—Lycium assemblages, Grayia spinosa reasserted its dominance over colonizers relatively quickly. In Coleogyne assemblages, typically found on older geomorphic surfaces, species composition differences persisted considerably longer, depending on the severity of the initial disturbance. Extremely stable assemblages, dominated by Coleogyne ramosissima, occurred on the oldest, least disturbed surfaces. The variability of species composition among disturbed sites was greater than the variability among undisturbed and geomorphically stable sites, in accord with convergent succession. Models of desert succession should consider several factors: (1) colonization is dependent largely on the severity of disturbances and residual biotic components; (2) the time span for recovery may be longer than past periods of climatic and geomorphic stability; and (3) colonizing species may have considerable range in their life—history strategies.
A casual look at the top of a tree stump reveals that it is composed of a series of concentric rings-tree rings -that become larger and larger in diameter outward from the center of the stump. Because a single tree ring is usually formed each year, the age of the tree at the time it was cut can be determined by simply counting the rings. If the year of cutting is known, the year during which each ring was formed can be determined by counting backwards from the outside ring. Such "dating" of rings may reveal that rings formed during certain extreme drought years are unusually narrow. This has led to speculation that tree ring characteristics may indicate a number of things about past water and climatic conditions.
The Camas National Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) in eastern Idaho, established in 1937, contains wetlands, ponds, and wet meadows that are essential resting and feeding habitat for migratory birds and nesting habitat for waterfowl. Initially, natural sources of water supported these habitats. However, during the past few decades, climate change and changes in surrounding land use have altered and reduced natural groundwater and surface water inflows such that the wetlands, ponds, and wet meadows are now maintained through water management and groundwater pumping. These water management activities have proven to be inefficient and costly, prompting the Refuge to develop alternative water management options that are more efficient and less expensive. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, is studying the hydrogeology at the Refuge to provide information for developing alternative water management options. The hydrogeologic studies at the Refuge included characterizing the type, distribution, and hydraulic conductivity of surficial sediments and measuring water levels and temperatures in monitoring wells. Four monitoring wells and seven soil probe coreholes were drilled at the Refuge. Seven water level and temperature data loggers were installed in the wells and water levels and temperatures were continuously recorded from November 2014 to June 2016. Sediment cores were collected from the coreholes and sediment type and distribution were characterized from drillers’ notes, geophysical logs, corehole samples, and particle grain-size analysis. The hydraulic conductivities of sediments were estimated using the measured average grain size and the assumed textural maturity of the sediment, and ranged from about 20 to 290 feet per day.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative strives to inform key resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information and forecasts for current and future ecosystem response to a warming climate. Over the past 5 years, a focal area for the USGS CAE initiative has been the North Slope of Alaska. This region has experienced a warming trend over the past 60 years, yet the rate of change has been varied across the North Slope, leading scientists to question the future response and resilience of wildlife populations, such as caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ), that rely on tundra habitats for forage. Future changes in temperature and precipitation to coastal wet sedge and upland low shrub tundra are expected, with unknown consequences for caribou that rely on these plant communities for food. Understanding how future environmental change may affect caribou migration, nutrition, and reproduction is a focal question being addressed by the USGS CAE research. Results will inform management agencies in Alaska and people that rely on caribou for food.
2018 marked the 10-year anniversary of the establishment of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center! With the passage of the fiscal year 2018 budget on March 23, 2018, our program name was changed from the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center to the National Climate Adaptation Science Center (NCASC). The eight regional Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers were renamed Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs). The name changes more clearly align the national and regional centers and emphasize their focus on meeting natural resource adaptation needs. Although the program has a new name, our mission has not changed. We are still hard at work delivering science to help fish, wildlife, water, land, and people adapt to a changing climate. During the past 10 years, the NCASC and the eight regional CASCs funded over 425 science projects and built a network of research partners, resource management stakeholders, interdisciplinary staff, fellows, and early career researchers. In celebration of our work and accomplishments over the last 10 years, the NCASC began a monthly web post series on “10 Things You May Not Know” about topics our science has focused on, including drought, glaciers, and wildfire. Additionally, CASCs that had completed their initial hosting agreement with the USGS underwent a formal review and recompetition process. New hosting agreements were awarded to the Southwest and North Central CASCs in 2018. Read the 2018 annual report to learn more about the CASCs' great science, partnerships, capacity building, and more from 2018.
The stable isotope and minor element geochemistry of Neocomian (Lower Cretaceous) pelagic carbonates of the North Atlantic Basin (Deep Sea Drilling Project Sites 105, 367, 387, 391, and 603) was examined to develop a diagenetic model for pelagic limestones. In particular, we hoped to test the fidelity of whole-rock geochemical records as paleoceanographic indicators for pelagic deposits of pre-Aptian age, in which individual microfossils are not available for analysis. Data indicate that in addition to depth of burial, rhythmic variations in primary carbonate content have strongly controlled diagenetic patterns and associated geochemical signatures in these Neocomian sequences. Samples become increasingly depleted in Sr and 18O with increasing CaCO3 content. Within individual sedimentary sections, substantial decreases in Sr/Ca ratios and ??18O values are evident over a range of 4 to 98% CaCO3. However, even over a relatively narrow range of 50 to 98% CaCO3 a 2.5%c variation in ??18O values and a change of a factor of 1.7 in Sr/Ca ratios are observed. Carbon isotope compositions do not vary as extensively with CaCO3 content, but carbonate-rich intervals tend to be relatively depleted in 13C. Petrographic analysis reveals that these geochemical patterns are related to the transfer of CaCO3 from carbonate-poor intervals (calcareous shales and marlstones) to adjacent carbonate-rich intervals (limestones) during burial compaction and pressure solution. This process results in the addition of diagenetic cement to carbonate-rich intervals to produce a bulk composition that is relatively depleted in Sr and 18O and, at the same time, enables the retention of more-or-less primary carbonate that is relatively enriched in Sr and 18O in adjacent carbonate-poor intervals. Thus, although cyclic variations in CaCO3 content are primary in the Neocomian sequences examined, measured variations in Sr/Ca ratios and ??18O values are not and, as such, do not provide reliable proxies for past variations in climate, oceanographic conditions, or global ice volume.
It is widely accepted by the scientific community that the earth, which has always experienced climate variation, is now undergoing a period of rapid climate change that is enhanced by anthropogenic atmospheric carbon enrichment during the past 100 years. These climatic changes are accelerating and projections for the next 100 years indicate extensive warming in most (but not all) areas, changing patterns of precipitation, and a significant acceleration of sea level rise. Other likely components of ongoing climate change include changes in season lengths, decreasing range of nighttime versus daytime temperatures, declining snowpack, and increasing frequency and intensity of severe weather events. The many components of climate change, and especially the unprecedented rapid rate of change, are just as important as increasing temperatures. Wildlife species are closely adapted to their environments and readily respond to climate variation. However, as discussed in this technical review, the climate change now underway has extensive potential to affect wildlife throughout North America, either directly or indirectly through responses to changing habitat conditions. When considered in combination with other factors (e.g., pollution, ozone depletion, urbanization, etc.), the potential effect is even greater. The effects of climate change on populations and range distributions of wildlife are expected to be species specific and highly variable, with some effects considered negative and others considered positive. In North America the ranges of habitats and wildlife are predicted to generally move northward as temperatures increase. Variations in this overall pattern will be dependent upon specific local conditions, changing precipitation patterns, and the response of different species to different components of climate change. It follows that the structure of plant–animal communities will also change. Ignoring climate change is likely to increasingly result in failure to reach wildlife management objectives. Wildlife managers need to become knowledgeable about climate change, ways to cope with it, and ways to take advantage of it. Management options currently available include protecting coastal wetlands to allow for sea level rise, reducing the risks to wildlife from potential catastrophic events, adjusting yield and harvest models, accounting for known climatic variations, and taking climate change into consideration when selecting the location and other characteristics of conservation areas. Wildlife managers also need to expect the unexpected and reduce nonclimate stressors on ecosystems. Overall, wildlife managers can minimize negative impacts to wildlife and take advantage of positive aspects by planning ahead and employing adaptive management.
Upper Klamath Lake, in south-central Oregon, contains long sediment records with well-preserved diatoms and lithological variations that reflect climate-induced limnological changes. These sediment archives complement and extend high resolution terrestrial records along a north-south transect that includes areas influenced by the Aleutian Low and Subtropical High, which control both marine and continental climates in the western United States. The longest and oldest core collected in this study came from the southwest margin of the lake at Caledonia Marsh, and was dated by radiocarbon and tephrochronology to an age of about 45 ka. Paleolimnological interpretations of this core, based upon geochemical and diatom analyses, have been augmented by data from a short core collected from open water environments at nearby Howards Bay and from a 9-m core extending to 15 ka raised from the center of the northwestern part of Upper Klamath Lake. Pre- and full-glacial intervals of the Caledonia Marsh core are characterized and dominated by lithic detrital material. Planktic diatom taxa characteristic of cold-water habitats (Aulacoseira subarctica and A. islandica) alternate with warm-water planktic diatoms (A. ambigua) between 45 and 23 ka, documenting climate changes at millennial scales during oxygen isotope stage (OIS) 3. The full-glacial interval contains mostly cold-water planktic, benthic, and reworked Pliocene lacustrine diatoms (from the surrounding Yonna Formation) that document shallow water conditions in a cold, windy environment. After 15 ka, diatom productivity increased. Organic carbon and biogenic silica became significant sediment components and diatoms that live in the lake today, indicative of warm, eutrophic water, became prominent. Lake levels fell during the mid-Holocene and marsh environments extended over the core site. This interval is characterized by high levels of organic carbon from emergent aquatic vegetation (Scirpus) and by the Mazama ash (7.55 ka), generated by the eruption that created nearby Crater Lake. For a brief time the ash increased the salinity of Upper Klamath Lake. High concentrations of molybdenum, arsenic, and vanadium indicate that Caledonia Marsh was anoxic from about 7 to 5 ka. After the mid-Holocene, shallow, but open-water environments returned to the core site. The sediments became dominated (>80%) by biogenic silica. The open-water cores show analogous but less extreme limnological and climatic changes more typical of mid-lake environments. Millennial-scale lake and climate changes during OIS 3 at Upper Klamath Lake contrast with a similar record of variation at Owens Lake, about 750 km south. When Upper Klamath Lake experienced cold-climate episodes during OIS 3, Owens Lake had warm but wet episodes; the reverse occurred during warmer intervals at Upper Klamath Lake. Such climatic alternations apparently reflect the variable position and strength of the Aleutian Low during the mid-Wisconsin.
Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.
In the future, Arctic warming and the melting of polar glaciers will be considerable, but the magnitude of both is uncertain. We used a global climate model, a dynamic ice sheet model, and paleoclimatic data to evaluate Northern Hemisphere high-latitude warming and its impact on Arctic icefields during the Last Interglaciation. Our simulated climate matches paleoclimatic observations of past warming, and the combination of physically based climate and ice-sheet modeling with ice-core constraints indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet and other circum-Arctic ice fields likely contributed 2.2 to 3.4 meters of sea-level rise during the Last Interglaciation.
Worldwide, large wildfires are becoming increasingly common, leading to economic damages and threatening ecosystems and human health. Under future climate change, more frequent fire disturbance may push ecosystems into non-forested alternative stable states. Fire-prone ecosystems such as those in the Mediterranean Basin are expected to be particularly vulnerable, but the position of tipping points is unclear. We compare long-term palaeoecological data from Sardinia with output from a process-based dynamic vegetation model to investigate the mechanisms controlling the complex interactions between fire, climate, and vegetation in the past and the future. Our results show that past vegetation changes from Erica -shrublands to mixed evergreen-broadleaved Quercus ilex -dominated forests were driven by a climate-induced fire regime shift. By simulating vegetation dynamics under varying fire regimes, we could reproduce Holocene vegetation trajectories and mechanistically identify tipping points. Without an immediate reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, we simulate future expansion of fire-prone Mediterranean maquis and increasing fire occurrence. Similarly, high anthropogenic ignition frequencies and plantations of non-native, highly flammable trees could induce a shift to fire-adapted Erica shrublands. However, our simulations indicate that if global warming can be kept below 2°C, Quercus ilex forests will be able to persist and effectively reduce fire occurrences and impacts, making them a valuable restoration target in Mediterranean ecosystems. Synthesis . By combining long-term records of ecosystem change with a dynamic vegetation model, we show that past climate-driven fire regime shifts were the main driver of vegetation change, creating alternative stable states that persisted over centuries. Projected future climate change exceeding Holocene variability leads to pronounced vegetation changes and increased fire risks in our simulations, requiring new fire management strategies to maintain current ecosystem services.
Simulations of future climate suggest profiles of temperature and precipitation may differ significantly from those in the past. These changes in climate will likely lead to changes in the hydrologic cycle. As such, natural resource managers are in need of tools that can provide estimates of key components of the hydrologic cycle, uncertainty associated with the estimates, and limitations associated with the climate forcing data used to estimate these components. To help address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal ( https://my.usgs.gov/mows/ ) provides a user friendly interface to deliver hydrologic and meteorological variables for monthly historic and potential future climatic conditions across the continental United States.
• Premise of the study: A key question concerns the vulnerability of desert species adapted to harsh, variable climates to future climate change. Evaluating this requires coupling long-term demographic models with information on past and projected future climates. We investigated climatic drivers of population growth using a 22-yr demographic model for Pediocactus bradyi , an endangered cactus in northern Arizona. • Methods: We used a matrix model to calculate stochastic population growth rates (λ s ) and the relative influences of life-cycle transitions on population growth. Regression models linked population growth with climatic variability, while stochastic simulations were used to (1) understand how predicted increases in drought frequency and extreme precipitation would affect λ s , and (2) quantify variability in λ s based on temporal replication of data. • Key results: Overall λ s was below unity (0.961). Population growth was equally influenced by fecundity and survival and significantly correlated with increased annual precipitation and higher winter temperatures. Stochastic simulations increasing the probability of drought and extreme precipitation reduced λ s , but less than simulations increasing the probability of drought alone. Simulations varying the temporal replication of data suggested 14 yr were required for accurate λ s estimates. • Conclusions: Pediocactus bradyi may be vulnerable to increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, particularly drought. Biotic interactions resulting in low survival during drought years outweighed increased seedling establishment following heavy precipitation. Climatic extremes beyond historical ranges of variability may threaten rare desert species with low population growth rates and therefore high susceptibility to stochastic events.
Late Quaternary precipitation dynamics in the central Andes have been linked to both high- and low-latitude atmospheric teleconnections. We use present-day relationships between fecal pellet diameters from ashy chinchilla rats ( Abrocoma cinerea ) and mean annual rainfall to reconstruct the timing and magnitude of pluvials (wet episodes) spanning the past 16,000 years in the Atacama Desert based on 81 14 C-dated A. cinerea paleomiddens. A transient climate simulation shows that pluvials identified at 15.9 to 14.8, 13.0 to 8.6, and 8.1 to 7.6 ka B.P. can be linked to North Atlantic (high-latitude) forcing (e.g., Heinrich Stadial 1, Younger Dryas, and Bond cold events). Holocene pluvials at 5.0 to 4.6, 3.2 to 2.1, and 1.4 to 0.7 ka B.P. are not simulated, implying low-latitude internal variability forcing (i.e., ENSO regime shifts). These results help constrain future central Andean hydroclimatic variability and hold promise for reconstructing past climates from rodent middens in desert ecosystems worldwide.
Climate change and ecological change go hand in hand. Because we value our ecological environment, any change has the potential to be a problem. Geographers have been drawn to this challenge, and have been successful in addressing it, because the primary ecological response to climate changes in the past — the waxing and waning of the great ice sheets over the past 2 million years – was the changing geographic range of the biota. Plants and animals changed their location. Geographers have been deeply involved in documenting the changing biota of the past, and today we are called upon to help assess the possible responses to ongoing and future climatic change and, thus, their impacts. Assessing the potential responses is important for policy makers to judge the outcomes of action or inaction and also sets the stage for preparation for and mitigation of change.