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Questa baseline and pre-mining ground-water quality investigation 22 — Groundwater budget for the Straight Creek drainage basin, Red River Valley, New Mexico, with a section on Sulphur Gulch water budget

In April 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) began a cooperative study to infer the pre-mining ground-water chemistry at the Molycorp molybdenum mine site in the Red River Valley. The Molycorp mine has been in operation since the 1920s. Because ground-water conditions prior to mining are not available, sites analogous to the pre-mining conditions at the mine site must be studied to infer those pre-mining conditions. The Straight Creek drainage basin (watershed) was selected as the primary analog site for this study because of its similar terrain and geology to the mine site, accessibility, potential for well construction, and minimal anthropogenic activity. The purpose of this report is to present results of a water-budget analysis of the debris-flow aquifer in the Straight Creek watershed. The water budget is based on mean annual conditions and is assumed to be steady state. For this study, the Straight Creek watershed was divided into sub-watersheds on the basis of locations of seismic lines, which were used to calculate cross-section area through the Straight Creek debris-flow deposits and underlying fractured and weathered bedrock (regolith). Water-budget components were calculated for areas upstream from and between the seismic lines. Components of the water budget were precipitation, evapotranspiration, surface-water flow, and ground-water flow under a steady-state mean annual condition. Watershed yield, defined as precipitation minus evapotranspiration, was separated into surface-water flow, ground-water flow through the debris-flow deposits and regolith, and ground-water flow through fractured bedrock. The approach to this calculation was to use Darcy's Law to calculate the flow through the cross-section area of the saturated debris-flow deposits and underlying regolith as defined by the interpreted seismic data. The amount of watershed yield unaccounted for through this section then was attributed to either surface-water flow or the component of ground-water flow through fractured bedrock. The inflow to the watershed, calculated to be 701 gallons per minute, is from precipitation. The calculated outflow from the watershed at or upstream from seismic-line 5 (the downstream-most line in Straight Creek prior to entering the Red River Valley) is 540 gallons per minute of evapotranspiration in the watershed upstream from line 5 (77.0 percent of precipitation), 5 gallons per minute of surface-water flow (0.7 percent of precipitation), 122 gallons per minute of ground-water flow through the debris-flow deposits and underlying regolith defined by the seismic data (17.4 percent of precipitation), and 34 gallons per minute of ground-water flow through fractured bedrock below the defined seismic line (4.9 percent of precipitation). The ground-water flow through the alluvium and inter-tonguing debris-flow deposits of the Red River Valley was calculated to be 5,227 gallons per minute at seismic-line 7, the first seismic line in the Red River Valley downstream from Straight Creek. The water budget indicates the amount of ground-water flow that enters the Red River alluvium from the debris-flow deposits and regolith in Straight Creek is small (about 2.3 percent; 122 gallons per minute) compared to the volume of flow that moves through the Red River alluvium. The total amount of ground-water flow from Straight Creek (156 gallons per minute; 122 gallons per minute from debris-flow deposits and regolith plus 34 gallons per minute through fractured bedrock) is about 3.0 percent of the ground-water flow calculated at line 7 for the Red River alluvium.

New Mexico

Beatty, Nevada: A section in U.S. Geological Survey research in radioactive waste disposal - Fiscal years 1983, 1984, and 1985 (WRI 87-4009)

A commercial low-level radioactive-waste disposal site has been operating near Beatty, Nevada, about 150 km northwest of Las Vegas, since 1962. The 32-ha site is situated in a desolate region of the Amargosa River Valley, sometimes referred to as the Amargosa Desert. Average annual precipitation is only about 114 mm. The site is underlain by 175 m of unconsolidated, generally coarse-grained, alluvial-fan and flood-plain deposits. The water table is at a depth of 90 m.

Nevada

Microclimate and limits to photosynthesis in a diverse community of hypolithic cyanobacteria in northern Australia

Hypolithic microbes, primarily cyanobacteria, inhabit the highly specialized microhabitats under translucent rocks in extreme environments. Here we report findings from hypolithic cyanobacteria found under three types of translucent rocks (quartz, prehnite, agate) in a semiarid region of tropical Australia. We investigated the photosynthetic responses of the cyanobacterial communities to light, temperature and moisture in the laboratory, and we measured the microclimatic variables of temperature and soil moisture under rocks in the field over an annual cycle. We also used molecular techniques to explore the diversity of hypolithic cyanobacteria in this community and their phylogenetic relationships within the context of hypolithic cyanobacteria from other continents. Based on the laboratory experiments, photosynthetic activity required a minimum soil moisture of 15% (by mass). Peak photosynthetic activity occurred between approximately 8°C and 42°C, though some photosynthesis occurred between −1°C and 51°C. Maximum photosynthesis rates also occurred at light levels of approximately 150–550 μmol m −2 s −1 . We used the field microclimatic data in conjunction with these measurements of photosynthetic efficiency to estimate the amount of time the hypolithic cyanobacteria could be photosynthetically active in the field. Based on these data, we estimated that conditions were appropriate for photosynthetic activity for approximately 942 h (∼75 days) during the year. The hypolithic cyanobacteria community under quartz, prehnite and agate rocks was quite diverse both within and between rock types. We identified 115 operational taxonomic units (OTUs), with each rock hosting 8–24 OTUs. A third of the cyanobacteria OTUs from northern Australia grouped with Chroococcidiopsis , a genus that has been identified from hypolithic and endolithic communities from the Gobi, Mojave, Atacama and Antarctic deserts. Several OTUs identified from northern Australia have not been reported to be associated with hypolithic communities previously.

Environmental Microbiology

Report of the River Master of the Delaware River for the period December 1, 2010–November 30, 2011

A Decree of the Supreme Court of the United States, entered June 7, 1954, established the position of Delaware River Master within the U.S. Geological Survey. In addition, the Decree authorizes diversion of water from the Delaware River Basin and requires compensating releases from certain reservoirs, owned by New York City, to be made under the supervision and direction of the River Master. The Decree stipulates that the River Master will furnish reports to the Court, not less frequently than annually. This report is the 58th Annual Report of the River Master of the Delaware River. It covers the 2011 River Master report year, the period from December 1, 2010, to November 30, 2011. During the report year, precipitation in the upper Delaware River Basin was 71.43 inches or 162 percent of the long-term average. On December 1, 2010, combined usable storage in the New York City reservoirs in the upper Delaware River Basin was 230.430 billion gallons or 85.1 percent of combined storage capacity. The reservoirs were at about 100 percent of usable capacity on May 31, 2011. Combined storage remained high (above 80 percent combined capacity) through November 2011. River Master operations during the year were conducted as stipulated by the Decree and the Flexible Flow Management Program. Diversions from the Delaware River Basin by New York City and New Jersey were in full compliance with the Decree. Reservoir releases were made as directed by the River Master at rates designed to meet the flow objective for the Delaware River at Montague, New Jersey, on 5 days during the report year (July 24–28, 2011). Conservation releases, designed to relieve thermal stress and protect the fishery and aquatic habitat in the tailwaters of the reservoirs, were also made during the report year. The quality of water in the Delaware Estuary between Trenton, New Jersey, and Reedy Island Jetty, Delaware, was monitored at various locations. Data on water temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and pH were collected continuously by electronic instruments at four sites.

New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania

Potential effects of elevated base flow and midsummer spike flow experiments on riparian vegetation along the Green River

The Upper Colorado River Endangered Fish Recovery Program has requested experimental flow releases from Flaming Gorge Dam for (1) elevated summer base flows to promote larval endangered Colorado pikeminnow, and (2) midsummer spike flows to disadvantage spawning invasive smallmouth bass. This white paper explores the effects of these proposed flow modifications on riparian vegetation and sediment deposition downstream along the Green River. Although modest in magnitude, the elevated base flows and possible associated reductions in magnitude or duration of peak flows would exacerbate a long-term trend of flow stabilization on the Green River that is already leading to proliferation of vegetation including invasive tamarisk along the channel and associated sediment deposition, channel narrowing and channel simplification. Midsummer spike flows could promote establishment of late-flowering plants like tamarisk. Because channel narrowing and simplification threaten persistence and quality of backwater and side channel features needed by endangered fish, the proposed flow modifications could lead to degradation of fish habitat. Channel narrowing and vegetation encroachment could be countered by increases in peak flows or reductions in base flows in some years and by prescription of rapid flow declines following midsummer spike flows. These strategies for reducing vegetation encroachment would need to be balanced with flow needs of other riverine resources. Use of high flows to remove unwanted vegetation is constrained by current operational guidance for Flaming Gorge Dam, which attempts to limit spills (i.e., flows greater than 8600 ft3 /s) that might contribute to cavitation and lead to dam safety concerns. Therefore, reversing vegetation encroachment is more likely to succeed if implemented while plants are still small. Annual monitoring of near-channel vegetation and topography would enable managers to prescribe a timely hydrologic response in case the proposed flow experiments lead to vegetation encroachment and habitat degradation.

Green River

Development of regional skew coefficients for selected flood durations in the Columbia River Basin, northwestern United States and British Columbia, Canada

Flood-frequency (hereinafter frequency) estimates provide information used to design, operate, and maintain hydraulic structures such as bridges and dams. Failures of these structures could cause catastrophic loss of property, life, or both. In addition to frequency estimates that use annual peak streamflow, frequency estimates of flood durations are required to safely and effectively operate the numerous dams in the Columbia River Basin of the northwestern United States, and British Columbia, Canada. Frequency studies rely on U.S. Geological Survey Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency (Bulletin 17C, published in 2018). A major consideration in estimating frequencies is the use of skew coefficients, which measure the asymmetry of flood flow distributions. Large uncertainties are associated with estimating the at-site skew coefficients directly from streamflow records, which are limited in length. Skew also is sensitive to extreme events for limited record lengths. Bulletin 17C recommends using regional skew coefficients to weight with the at-site skew estimate for more reliable frequency estimates. In this study, streamflow records from 313 unregulated U.S. Geological Survey streamgage sites and 97 regulated sites with naturalized streamflow records provided by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers were used to develop regional skew models for the Columbia River Basin. The naturalized streamflow records were synthesized by removing regulatory components such as withdrawals and reservoir storage. Skew models were developed for 1-, 3-, 7-, 10-, 15-, 30-, and 60-day flood durations and used to estimate regional skew coefficients for the Columbia River Basin. This report used Bayesian statistical regression methods to develop and analyze regional skew models based on hydrologically important basin characteristics. After examining a suite of available basin characteristics, mean annual precipitation had the strongest correlation to skew across the flood durations. Regional skew regression models were fit using mean annual precipitation for selected subbasins in the Columbia River Basin.

Columbia River Basin

Petroleum-resource appraisal and discovery rate forecasting in partially explored regions

PART A: A model of the discovery process can be used to predict the size distribution of future petroleum discoveries in partially explored basins. The parameters of the model are estimated directly from the historical drilling record, rather than being determined by assumptions or analogies. The model is based on the concept of the area of influence of a drill hole, which states that the area of a basin exhausted by a drill hole varies with the size and shape of targets in the basin and with the density of previously drilled wells. It also uses the concept of discovery efficiency, which measures the rate of discovery within several classes of deposit size. The model was tested using 25 years of historical exploration data (1949-74) from the Denver basin. From the trend in the discovery rate (the number of discoveries per unit area exhausted), the discovery efficiencies in each class of deposit size were estimated. Using pre-1956 discovery and drilling data, the model accurately predicted the size distribution of discoveries for the 1956-74 period. PART B: A stochastic model of the discovery process has been developed to predict, using past drilling and discovery data, the distribution of future petroleum deposits in partially explored basins, and the basic mathematical properties of the model have been established. The model has two exogenous parameters, the efficiency of exploration and the effective basin size. The first parameter is the ratio of the probability that an actual exploratory well will make a discovery to the probability that a randomly sited well will make a discovery. The second parameter, the effective basin size, is the area of that part of the basin in which drillers are willing to site wells. Methods for estimating these parameters from locations of past wells and from the sizes and locations of past discoveries were derived, and the properties of estimators of the parameters were studied by simulation. PART C: This study examines the temporal properties and determinants of petroleum exploration for firms operating in the Denver basin. Expectations associated with the favorability of a specific area are modeled by using distributed lag proxy variables (of previous discoveries) and predictions from a discovery process model. In the second part of the study, a discovery process model is linked with a behavioral well-drilling model in order to predict the supply of new reserves. Results of the study indicate that the positive effects of new discoveries on drilling increase for several periods and then diminish to zero within 2? years after the deposit discovery date. Tests of alternative specifications of the argument of the distributed lag function using alternative minimum size classes of deposits produced little change in the model's explanatory power. This result suggests that, once an exploration play is underway, favorable operator expectations are sustained by the quantity of oil found per time period rather than by the discovery of specific size deposits. When predictions of the value of undiscovered deposits (generated from a discovery process model) were substituted for the expectations variable in models used to explain exploration effort, operator behavior was found to be consistent with these predictions. This result suggests that operators, on the average, were efficiently using information contained in the discovery history of the basin in carrying out their exploration plans. Comparison of the two approaches to modeling unobservable operator expectations indicates that the two models produced very similar results. The integration of the behavioral well-drilling model and discovery process model to predict the additions to reserves per unit time was successful only when the quarterly predictions were aggregated to annual values. The accuracy of the aggregated predictions was also found to be reasonably robust to errors in predictions from the behavioral well-drilling equation.

Professional Paper

Status of ground-water resources at U.S. Navy Support Facility, Diego Garcia; summary of hydrologic and climatic data, January 1992 through December 1994

This report contains hydrologic and climatic data that describe the status of ground-water resources at U.S. Navy Support Facility, Diego Garcia. Data presented are from January 1992 through December 1994. This report concentrates on data from October through December 1994, and references previous data from 1992 through 1994. Cumulative rainfall for October through December 1994 was 55 inches which is higher than the mean cumulative rainfall of about 31 inches for the same 3 months. Total rainfall for 1994 was 131 inches which is 24 percent higher than the mean annual rainfall of 106 inches. In com- parison, total rainfall in 1992 and 1993 were 93 inches and 95 inches, respectively. Ground-water withdrawal during October through December 1994 averaged 903,000 gallons per day, while the annual withdrawal in 1994 was 942,700 gallons per day. Annual withdrawals in 1992 and 1993 averaged 935,900 gallons per day and 953,800 gallons per day, respectively. At the end of December 1994, the chloride concentration of the composite water supply was 28 milligrams per liter, well below the 250 milligrams per liter secondary drinking-water standard established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Chloride concentrations of the composite water supply from October through December 1994 ranged between 28 and 86 milligrams per liter. Chloride concentration of ground water in monitoring wells at Cantonment and Air Operations decreased in November and December, and seems to have leveled off by the end of the year. Although chloride concen- trations have decreased during the fourth quarter of 1994, there has been a general trend of increasing chloride concentrations in the deeper monitoring wells since the 1992 dry season, which began in March 1992. A fuel leak at Air Operations caused the shutdown of ten wells in May 1991. Four of the wells resumed pumping for water-supply purposes in April 1992. The remaining six wells are being used to hydraulically contain and divert fuel migration by recirculating 150,000 gallons of water each day.

Open-File Report

Elk monitoring in Mount Rainier and Olympic national parks: 2008-2011 synthesis report

In 2008, the USGS collaborated with the NPS, the Muckleshoot and Puyallup Indian Tribes, and WDFW to develop a protocol tor monitor changes in abundance, population composition, and spatial distribution of elk on summer ranges in MORA and OLYM and winter ranges in OLYM. We developed double-observer sightability (DO-S) models that adjusted raw counts of elk as a function of factors influencing detection probabilities from the air, e.g. vegetation, elk group size, light, elk activity, and pilot experience. We plan to develop DO-S models for both MORA and OLYM summer ranges, but due to radiotelemetry collar failures in OLYM, we do not yet have enough data to model detection probabilities in OLYM. We analyzed results of the first 4 years of elk monitoring conducted under the new protocol from 2008-2011. Objectives of this first synthetic analysis are to: • update the DO-S model for MORA aerial survey results • examine abundance, composition, and distribution of elk trends in MORA summer ranges • establish a baseline of counts, population composition, and distribution of elk in OLYM summer ranges • examine trends in counts and distribution of elk in OLYM low-elevation winter ranges during early spring • determine environmental factors influencing abundance and composition of elk in selected MORA summer ranges and unadjusted counts of elk on selected OLYM winter ranges • review progress in developing a DO-S model for OLYM elk surveys • examine aerial survey operations and provide suggestions for future surveys. There was no trend in elk numbers in the N. Rainier TCA from 2008-2011; the trend in the S. Rainier TCA was not statistically significant but increased 3.3%/year. Maximum counts increased in the N. Rainier TCA ~6%/year. Maximum counts in the S. Rainier TCA increased at a rate of 17% annually. Due to failed radiocollars, weather, and other problems, we completed surveys in 2 of 5 OLYM summer range TCAs; no trend data are available. In OLYM winter ranges, we surveyed the Hoh TCA during early spring 2008-10 and of the S. Fork Hoh and Queets in 2008 and 2010. No surveys were done for early-spring counts in 2011 and 2012 due to high snowfall and lack of funding. Legacy early-spring surveys in OLYM since 1985 allowed us to assess trends in counts in the early-spring TCAs from 1985-2010. Counts of elk in the early-spring TCAs declined: 63% in the S. Fork Hoh, 18% in the Hoh, and 22% in the Queets Valley. We continue to develop and improve the DO-S model for application to OLYM summer surveys. In the next synthesis report, we will update findings with additional data following the 2015 field season, based on 8 years of survey results; it will be a more complete analysis of elk population trends.

Washington

Revised technical implementation plan for the ShakeAlert system—An earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), along with partner organizations, has developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) system called ShakeAlert for the highest risk areas of the United States: namely, California, Oregon, and Washington. The purpose of the system is to reduce the impact of earthquakes and save lives and property by providing alerts to institutional users and the public. Using networks of ground-motion sensors and sophisticated computer algorithms, ShakeAlert can detect an earthquake seconds after it begins, calculate its location and magnitude, and estimate the resulting intensity of shaking. Alerts can then be sent to people and systems that may experience damaging shaking, allowing them to take appropriate protective actions. Depending on the user’s distance from the earthquake, alerts may be delivered before, during, or after the arrival of strong shaking. ShakeAlert is built on the foundation of the sensor networks and data processing infrastructure of the USGS-led Advanced National Seismic System. However, these networks were not originally designed for EEW; old equip­ment needs to be updated and new stations must be added to construct EEW-capable networks. The ShakeAlert data-processing infrastructure includes redundant servers that are geographically distributed at monitoring centers in Seattle, Washington, as well as Menlo Park, Berkeley, and Pasadena in California. Three data-processing layers collect raw ground-motion data from field stations (data layer), analyze these data to estimate the area and intensity of the resulting shaking (production layer), and publish alert products as appropriate for end users (alert layer). The alert layer can support thousands of institutional users and alert redistributors, but the USGS does not have the mission, infrastructure, or expertise to perform public notifications and is therefore recruiting technology enablers from the private sector. Additionally, ShakeAlert will coordinate with both public and private partners to accomplish consistent and ongoing public communication, education, and outreach. The estimated cost of completing the ShakeAlert infrastructure and sensor networks is \$39.4 million and has an estimated annual operation and maintenance cost of \$28.6 million per year. Building a highly reliable data telemetry infrastructure would cost another \$20.5 million and operating this telemetry system would add \$49.8 million per year; however, these costs could be reduced if project partners provide bandwidth on existing systems.

Open-File Report

Approaches in highly parameterized inversion: TSPROC, a general time-series processor to assist in model calibration and result summarization

The TSPROC ( T ime S eries PROC essor) computer software uses a simple scripting language to process and analyze time series. It was developed primarily to assist in the calibration of environmental models. The software is designed to perform calculations on time-series data commonly associated with surface-water models, including calculation of flow volumes, transformation by means of basic arithmetic operations, and generation of seasonal and annual statistics and hydrologic indices. TSPROC can also be used to generate some of the key input files required to perform parameter optimization by means of the PEST ( P arameter EST imation) computer software. Through the use of TSPROC, the objective function for use in the model-calibration process can be focused on specific components of a hydrograph.

Techniques and Methods

Simulation of groundwater and surface-water flow in the upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon

This report describes a hydrologic model for the upper Deschutes Basin in central Oregon developed using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) integrated Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow model (GSFLOW). The upper Deschutes Basin, which drains much of the eastern side of the Cascade Range in Oregon, is underlain by large areas of permeable volcanic rock. That permeability, in combination with the large annual precipitation at high elevations, results in a substantial regional aquifer system and a stream system that is heavily groundwater dominated. The upper Deschutes Basin is also an area of expanding population and increasing water demand for public supply and agriculture. Surface water was largely developed for agricultural use by the mid-20th century, and is closed to additional appropriations. Consequently, water users look to groundwater to satisfy the growing demand. The well‑documented connection between groundwater and the stream system, and the institutional and legal restrictions on streamflow depletion by wells, resulted in the Oregon Water Resources Department (OWRD) instituting a process whereby additional groundwater pumping can be permitted only if the effects to streams are mitigated, for example, by reducing permitted surface-water diversions. Implementing such a program requires understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of effects to streams from groundwater pumping. A groundwater model developed in the early 2000s by the USGS and OWRD has been used to provide insights into the distribution of streamflow depletion by wells, but lacks spatial resolution in sensitive headwaters and spring areas. The integrated model developed for this project, based largely on the earlier model, has a much finer grid spacing allowing resolution of sensitive headwater streams and important spring areas, and simulates a more complete set of surface processes as well as runoff and groundwater flow. In addition, the integrated model includes improved representation of subsurface geology and explicitly simulates the effects of hydrologically important fault zones not included in the previous model. The upper Deschutes Basin GSFLOW model was calibrated using an iterative trial and error approach using measured water-level elevations (water levels) from 800 wells, 144 of which have time series of 10 or more measurements. Streamflow was calibrated using data from 21 gage locations. At 14 locations where measured flows are heavily influenced by reservoir operations and irrigation diversions, so called “ naturalized ” flows, with the effects of reservoirs and diversion removed, developed by the Bureau of Reclamation, were used for calibration. Surface energy and moisture processes such as solar radiation, snow accumulation and melting, and evapotranspiration were calibrated using national datasets as well as data from long-term measurement sites in the basin. The calibrated Deschutes GSFLOW model requires daily precipitation, minimum and maximum air temperature data, and monthly data describing groundwater pumping and artificial recharge from leaking irrigation canals (which are a significant source of groundwater recharge). The calibrated model simulates the geographic distribution of hydraulic head over the 5,000 ft range measured in the basin, with a median absolute residual of about 53 ft. Temporal variations in head resulting from climate cycles, pumping, and canal leakage are well simulated over the model area. Simulated daily streamflow matches gaged flows or calculated naturalized flows for streams including the Crooked and Metolius Rivers, and lower parts of the mainstem Deschutes River. Seasonal patterns of runoff are less well fit in some upper basin streams. Annual water balances of streamflow are good over most of the model domain. Model fit and overall capabilities are appropriate for the objectives of the project. The integrated model results confirm findings from other studies and models indicating that most streamflow in the upper Deschutes Basin comes directly from groundwater discharge. The integrated model provides additional insights about the components of streamflow including direct groundwater discharge to streams, interflow, groundwater discharge to the land surface (Dunnian flow), and direct runoff (Hortonian flow). The new model provides improved capability for exploring the timing and distribution of streamflow capture by wells, and the hydrologic response to changes in other external stresses such as canal operation, irrigation, and drought. Because the model uses basic meteorological data as the primary input; and simulates surface energy and moisture balances, groundwater recharge and flow, and all components of streamflow; it is well suited for exploring the hydrologic response to climate change, although no such simulations are included in this report. The model was developed as a tool for future application; however, example simulations are provided in this report. In the example simulations, the model is used to explore the influence of well location and geologic structure on stream capture by pumping wells. Wells were simulated at three locations within a 12-mi area close to known groundwater discharge areas and crossed by a regional fault zone. Simulations indicate that the magnitude and timing of stream capture from pumping is largely controlled by the geographic location of the wells, but that faults can have a large influence on the propagation of pumping stresses.

Oregon

Status of ground-water resources at U.S. Navy Support Facility, Diego Garcia; summary of hydrologic and climatic data, January 1993 through September 1995

This report contains hydrologic and climatic data that describe the status of ground-water resources at U.S. Navy Support Facility, Diego Garcia. Data presented are from January 1993 through September 1995, although the report focuses on hydrologic events from July through September 1995. Cumulative rainfall for July through September 1995 was about 15 inches which is 32 percent less than the mean cumulative rainfall of about 22 inches for July through September. July and August are within the annual dry season, while September is the start of the annual wet season. Mean cumulative rainfall is calculated for the fixed base period 1951-90. Ground-water withdrawal during July through September 1995 averaged 888,500 gallons per day. Withdrawal for the same 3 months in 1994 averaged 919,400 gallons per day. Patterns of withdrawal during the third quarter of 1995 did not change significantly since 1993 at all five ground-water production areas. At the end of September 1995, the chloride concentration of the composite water supply was 51 milligrams per liter, well below the 250 milligrams per liter secondary drinking-water standard established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Chloride concentrations of the composite water supply from July through September 1995 ranged between 42 and 68 milligrams per liter. Chloride concentration of ground water in monitoring wells at Cantonment and Air Operations continued to increase since April 1995, with water from the deepest monitoring wells increasing in chloride concentration by as much as 2,000 milligrams per liter. A fuel leak at Air Operations caused the shutdown of ten wells in May 1991. Four of the wells resumed pumping for water-supply purposes in April 1992. The remaining six wells are being used to hydraulically divert fuel migration away from water-supply wells by recirculating about 150,000 gallons of water each day.

Open-File Report

Watershed models for decision support in the Yakima River basin, Washington

A Decision Support System (DSS) is being developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Bureau of Reclamation as part of a long-term project, the Watershed and River Systems Management Program. The goal of the program is to apply the DSS to U.S. Bureau of Reclamation projects in the western United States. The DSS was applied to the Reclamation's Yakima Project in the Yakima River Basin in eastern Washington. An important component of the DSS is the physical hydrology modeling. For the application to the Yakima River Basin, the physical hydrology component consisted of constructing four watershed models using the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System within the Modular Modeling System. The implementation of these models is described. To facilitate calibration of the models, mean annual streamflow also was estimated for ungaged subbasins. The models were calibrated for water years 1950-94 and tested for water years 1995-98. The integration of the models in the DSS for real-time water-management operations using an interface termed the Object User Interface is also described. The models were incorporated in the DSS for use in long-term to short-term planning and have been used in a real-time operational mode since water year 1999.

Open-File Report

Conveyance characteristics of the Nueces River, Cotulla to Simmons, Texas

Analysis of discharge hydrographs for streamflow-gaging stations on the Nueces River at Cotulla, Tilden, and Simmons indicate that significant water losses occur along the 108-mile reach from Cotulla to Simmon during storm-runoff periods. Computed losses along the 83-mile reach from Cotulla to Tilden for 15 storm periods range from 32 to 59 percent of the total runoff volume passing the Cotulla gage. For six storm periods that occurred while the gage at Simmons was in operation, computed losses from Cotulla to Simmons averaged 48 percent of the storm runoff passing the Cotulla gage. Estimates of total-annual losses were made with the aid of a regression model developed to relate monthly rainfall totals to monthly runoff. Total annual water losses, estimated with the aid of the regression model, ranged from 46,000 acre-feet during 1969 to 368,500 acre-feet during 1967, and averaged about 174,000 acre-feet for 1966-77. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Effects of the proposed California WaterFix North Delta Diversion on survival of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, northern California

The California Department of Water Resources and Bureau of Reclamation propose new water intake facilities on the Sacramento River in northern California that would convey some of the water for export to areas south of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (hereinafter referred to as the Delta) through tunnels rather than through the Delta. The collection of water intakes, tunnels, pumping facilities, associated structures, and proposed operations are collectively referred to as California WaterFix. The water intake facilities, hereinafter referred to as the North Delta Diversion (NDD), are proposed to be located on the Sacramento River downstream of the city of Sacramento and upstream of the first major river junction where Sutter Slough branches from the Sacramento River. The NDD can divert a maximum discharge of 9,000 cubic feet per second (ft3 /s) from the Sacramento River, which reduces the amount of Sacramento River inflow into the Delta. In this report, we conduct four analyses to investigate the effect of the NDD and its proposed operation on survival of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). All analyses used the results of a Bayesian survival model that allowed us to simulate travel time, migration routing, and survival of juvenile Chinook salmon migrating through the Delta in response to NDD operations, which affected both inflows to the Delta and operation of the Delta Cross Channel (DCC). For the first analysis, we evaluated the effect of the NDD bypass rules on salmon survival. The NDD bypass rules are a set of operational rule curves designed to provide adaptive levels of fish protection by defining allowable diversion rates as a function of (1) Sacramento River discharge as measured at Freeport, and (2) time of year when endangered runs requiring the most protection are present. We determined that all bypass rule curves except constant low-level pumping (maximum diversion of 900 ft3 /s) could cause a sizeable decrease in survival by as much as 6–10 percentage points. The maximum decrease in survival occurred at an intermediate Sacramento River flow of about 20,000–30,000 ft3 /s. Diversion rates increased rapidly as Sacramento River flows increased from 20,000 ft3 /s to 30,000 ft3 /s, until a maximum diversion rate was reached at 9,000 ft3 /s. Because through-Delta survival increases sharply over this range of Sacramento River flow before beginning to level off with further flow increases, increasing diversion rates over this flow range causes a large decrease in survival relative to no diversion. For the second analysis, we applied the survival model to 82 years of daily simulated flows under the Proposed Action (PA) and No Action Alternative (NAA). The PA includes operation of the Central Valley Project/State Water Project with implementation of the NDD and its operations prescribed by the NDD bypass rules, whereas the NAA assumes system operations without implementation of the NDD. We also evaluated a “Level 1” (L1) scenario, which was similar to the PA scenario but applied the most protective bypass rule known as Level 1 post-pulse operations. We noted a high probability that survival under the PA scenario was lower than under the NAA scenario, and that travel time was longer under PA relative to NAA in most simulation years. However, the largest survival differences between the PA and NAA scenarios occurred during October–November and May–June. Although bypass rules are less restrictive during these periods, we determined that more frequent use of the DCC under PA led to the largest differences in survival between the two scenarios. Additionally, we noted no difference in median survival decreases between the PA and L1 scenarios, although in some years the L1 scenario had a lower survival decrease than the PA scenario. For the third analysis, we proposed a quantitative approach for developing NDD rule curves (that is, prescribed diversion flows for given inflows) by using the survival model to identify diversion rates that meet a criterion of a having a small probability of exceeding a given decrease in survival. We examined diversion rates that led to a 10% chance of exceeding a given decrease in survival for a range of absolute and relative decreases in survival. To maintain a given constant level of protection across the range of river flows, our analysis indicated that diversions had to increase at a much slower rate with respect to Sacramento River flow relative to the rule curves defined in the NDD bypass table. Additionally, we determined that diversion rates could be higher than under the bypass table rule curves at river flows less than 20,000 ft3 /s, but diversions had to be less than defined by NDD bypass rules at higher flows. For the fourth analysis, we simulated the effect of “real-time operations” on salmon survival, where bypass flow rates were determined by the presence of juvenile salmon entering the Delta, as indicated by juvenile salmon catch in a rotary screw trap upstream of the Delta. For this analysis, we evaluated NDD operations as defined by the L1 scenario and an additional scenario (Unlimited Pulse Protection [UPP]) that provided protection to an unlimited number of fish pulses. This analysis indicated that the highest catches occurred during flow pulses when daily survival was high, which caused annual survival to be weighted towards periods of high daily survival, resulting in a high annual survival. We determined that the mean annual survival decreased by 1–4 percentage points, and annual survival decreases were more frequently smaller for the UPP scenario. Additionally, because the UPP scenario protected an unlimited number of fish pulses, decreases in daily survival under the UPP scenario were less than under the L1 scenario.

California

Summary of hydrologic conditions in Kansas, water year 2016

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Federal, State, and local agencies, maintains a long-term network of hydrologic monitoring sites in Kansas. Real-time data are collected at 216 streamgage sites and are verified throughout the year with regular measurements of streamflow made by USGS personnel. Annual assessments of hydrologic conditions are made by comparing statistical analyses of current and historical water year (WY) data for the period of record. A WY is the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30 and is designated by the calendar year in which the period ends. Long-term monitoring of hydrologic conditions in Kansas provides critical information for water-supply management, flood forecasting, reservoir operations, irrigation scheduling, bridge and culvert design, ecological monitoring, and many other uses.

Kansas

Watershed Data Management (WDM) Database for Salt Creek Streamflow Simulation, DuPage County, Illinois

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with DuPage County Department of Engineering, Stormwater Management Division, maintains a database of hourly meteorologic and hydrologic data for use in a near real-time streamflow simulation system, which assists in the management and operation of reservoirs and other flood-control structures in the Salt Creek watershed in DuPage County, Illinois. The majority of the precipitation data are collected from a tipping-bucket rain-gage network located in and near DuPage County. The other meteorologic data (wind speed, solar radiation, air temperature, and dewpoint temperature) are collected at Argonne National Laboratory in Argonne, Illinois. Potential evapotranspiration is computed from the meteorologic data. The hydrologic data (discharge and stage) are collected at USGS streamflow-gaging stations in DuPage County. These data are stored in a Watershed Data Management (WDM) database. This report describes a version of the WDM database that was quality-assured and quality-controlled annually to ensure the datasets were complete and accurate. This version of the WDM database contains data from January 1, 1997, through September 30, 2004, and is named SEP04.WDM. This report provides a record of time periods of poor data for each precipitation dataset and describes methods used to estimate the data for the periods when data were missing, flawed, or snowfall-affected. The precipitation dataset data-filling process was changed in 2001, and both processes are described. The other meteorologic and hydrologic datasets in the database are fully described in the annual U.S. Geological Survey Water Data Report for Illinois and, therefore, are described in less detail than the precipitation datasets in this report.

Open-File Report