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At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources
USGS2002

Native American impacts on fire regimes of the California coastal ranges

Aim Native American burning impacts on California shrubland dominated landscapes are evaluated relative to the natural lightning fire potential for affecting landscape patterns. Location Focus was on the coastal ranges of central and southern California. Methods Potential patterns of Indian burning were evaluated based upon historical documents, ethnographic accounts, archaeological records and consideration of contemporary land management tactics. Patterns of vegetation distribution in this region were evaluated relative to environmental factors and the resilience of the dominant shrub vegetation to different fire frequencies. Results Lightning fire frequency in this region is one of the lowest in North America and the density of pre-Columbian populations was one of the highest. Shrublands dominate the landscape throughout most of the region. These woody communities have weak resilience to high fire frequency and are readily displaced by annual grasses and forbs under high fire frequency. Intact shrublands provided limited resources for native Americans and thus there was ample motivation for using fire to degrade this vegetation to an open mosaic of shrubland/grassland, not unlike the agropastoral modification of ecologically related shrublands by Holocene peoples in the Mediterranean Basin. Alien-dominated grasslands currently cover approximately one-quarter of the landscape and less than 1% of these grasslands have a significant native grass presence. Ecological studies in the Californian coastal ranges have failed to uncover any clear soil or climate factors explaining grassland and shrubland distribution patterns. Main conclusions Coastal ranges of California were regions of high Indian density and low frequency of lightning fires. The natural vegetation dominants on this landscape are shrubland vegetation that often form dense impenetrable stands with limited resources for Native Americans. Natural fire frequencies are not high enough to maintain these landscapes in habitable mixtures of shrublands and grasslands but such landscape mosaics are readily produced with additional human subsidy of ignitions. It is hypothesized that a substantial fraction of the landscape was type converted from shrubland to grassland and much of the landscape that underwent such type conversion has either been maintained by Euro-American land management practices or resisted recolonization of native shrublands. It appears that these patterns are disturbance dependent and result from anthropogenic alteration of landscapes initiated by Native Americans and sustained and expanded upon by Euro-American settlers.

Journal of Biogeography↗
USGS2021

Demographic and potential biological removal models identify raptor species sensitive to current and future wind energy

A central challenge in applied ecology is understanding the effect of anthropogenic fatalities on wildlife populations and predicting which populations may be particularly vulnerable and in greatest need of management attention. We used 3 approaches to investigate potential effects of fatalities from collisions with wind turbines on 14 raptor species for both current (106 GW) and anticipated future (241 GW) levels of installed wind energy capacity in the United States. Our goals were to identify species at relatively high vs low risk of experiencing population declines from turbine collisions and to also compare results generated from these approaches. Two of the approaches used a calculated turbine-caused mortality rate to decrement population growth, where population trends were derived either from the North American Breeding Bird Survey or a matrix model parameterized from literature-derived demographic values. The third approach was potential biological removal, which estimates the number of fatalities that allow a population to reach and maintain its optimal sustainable population set by management concerns. Different results among the methods reveal substantial gaps in knowledge and uncertainty in both demographic parameters and species-specific estimates of fatalities from wind turbines. Our results suggest that, of the 14 species studied, those with relatively higher potential of population-level impacts from wind turbine collisions included barn owl, ferruginous hawk, golden eagle, American kestrel, and red-tailed hawk. Burrowing owl, Cooper’s hawk, great horned owl, northern harrier, turkey vulture, and osprey had a relatively lower potential for population impacts, and results were not easily interpretable for merlin, prairie falcon, and Swainson’s hawk. Projections of current levels of fatalities to future wind energy scenarios at 241 GW of installed capacity suggest some species could experience population declines because of turbine collisions. Populations of those species may benefit from research to identify tools to prevent or reduce raptor collisions with wind turbines.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2008

American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in northwestern Nevada: A newly discovered population at a low-elevation site

The central tenet of island biogeography theory - that species assemblages on islands are functions of island area, isolation from mainlands, and vicariance - has been altered by the demonstrable effects that rapid climate change is imposing on insular faunas, at least in isolated mountaintops. Although populations of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) continue to suffer extirpations, and although the lower bounds of the pika's elevational distribution are shifting upslope across the Great Basin, we report here on the new discovery of a low-elevation population of pikas in a mountain range from which they had not been reported previously. This discovery, particularly in the context of relatively rapid ecological change, highlights the importance of seeking out original sources of information and performing spatially extensive fieldwork. Results presented here further illustrate that although thermal influences appear to be the single strongest determinant of pika distribution currently, such influences interact with a number of other factors to determine persistence.

Western North American Naturalist↗
USGS2008

Variational analysis of drifter positions and model outputs for the reconstruction of surface currents in the central Adriatic during fall 2002

In this paper we present an application of a variational method for the reconstruction of the velocity field in a coastal flow in the central Adriatic Sea, using in situ data from surface drifters and outputs from the ROMS circulation model. The variational approach, previously developed and tested for mesoscale open ocean flows, has been improved and adapted to account for inhomogeneities on boundary current dynamics over complex bathymetry and coastline and for weak Lagrangian persistence in coastal flows. The velocity reconstruction is performed using nine drifter trajectories over 45 d, and a hierarchy of indirect tests is introduced to evaluate the results as the real ocean state is not known. For internal consistency and impact of the analysis, three diagnostics characterizing the particle prediction and transport, in terms of residence times in various zones and export rates from the boundary current toward the interior, show that the reconstruction is quite effective. A qualitative comparison with sea color data from the MODIS satellite images shows that the reconstruction significantly improves the description of the boundary current with respect to the ROMS model first guess, capturing its main features and its exchanges with the interior when sampled by the drifters. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS1996

Subtidal circulation patterns in a shallow, highly stratified estuary: Mobile Bay, Alabama

Mobile Bay is a wide (25-50 km), shallow (3 m), highly stratified estuary on the Gulf coast of the United States. In May 1991 a series of instruments that measure near-surface and near-bed current, temperature, salinity, and middepth pressure were deployed for a year-long study of the bay. A full set of measurements were obtained at one site in the lower bay; all but current measurements were obtained at a midbay site. These observations show that the subtidal currents in the lower bay are highly sheared, despite the shallow depth of the estuary. The sheared flow patterns are partly caused by differential forcing from wind stress and river discharge. Two wind-driven flow patterns actually exist in lower Mobile Bay. A barotropic response develops when the difference between near-surface and near-bottom salinity is less than 5 parts per thousand. For stronger salinity gradients the wind-driven currents are larger and the response resembles a baroclinic flow pattern. Currents driven by river flows are sheared and also have a nonlinear response pattern. Only near-surface currents are driven seaward by discharges below 3000 m3/s. At higher discharge rates, surface current variability uncouples from the river flow and the increased discharge rates drive near-bed current seaward. This change in the river-forced flow pattern may be associated with a hydraulic jump in the mouth of the estuary. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2007

Smallmouth bass and largemouth bass predation on juvenile Chinook salmon and other salmonids in the Lake Washington basin

We assessed the impact of predation by smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu and largemouth bass M. salmoides on juveniles of federally listed Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and other anadromous salmonid populations in the Lake Washington system. Bass were collected with boat electrofishing equipment in the south end of Lake Washington (February-June) and the Lake Washington Ship Canal (LWSC; April-July), a narrow waterway that smolts must migrate through to reach the marine environment. Genetic analysis was used to identify ingested salmonids to obtain a more precise species-specific consumption estimate. Overall, we examined the stomachs of 783 smallmouth bass and 310 largemouth bass greater than 100 mm fork length (FL). Rates of predation on salmonids in the south end of Lake Washington were generally low for both black bass species. In the LWSC, juvenile salmonids made up a substantial part of bass diets; consumption of salmonids was lower for largemouth bass than for smallmouth bass. Smallmouth bass predation on juvenile salmonids was greatest in June, when salmonids made up approximately 50% of their diet. In the LWSC, overall black bass consumption of salmonids was approximately 36,000 (bioenergetics model) to 46,000 (meal turnover consumption model) juveniles, of which about one-third was juvenile Chinook salmon, one-third was coho salmon O. kisutch, and one-third was sockeye salmon O. nerka. We estimated that about 2,460,000 juvenile Chinook salmon (hatchery and wild sources combined) were produced in the Lake Washington basin in 1999; thus, the mortality estimates in the LWSC range from 0.5% (bioenergetics) to 0.6% (meal turnover). Black bass prey mostly on subyearlings of each salmonid species. The vulnerability of subyearlings to predation can be attributed to their relatively small size; their tendency to migrate when water temperatures exceed 15??C, coinciding with greater black bass activity; and their use of nearshore areas, where overlap with black bass is greatest. We conclude that under current conditions, predation by smallmouth bass and largemouth bass has a minor impact on Chinook salmon and other salmonid populations in the Lake Washington system. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2003

Mitochondrial phylogeography of moose (Alces alces) in North America

Nucleotide variation was assessed from the mitochondrial control region of North American moose ( Alces alces ) to test predictions of a model of range expansion by stepping-stone dispersal and to determine whether patterns of genetic variation support the current recognition of 4 subspecies. Haplotypes formed a star phylogeny indicative of a recent expansion of populations. Values of nucleotide and haplotype diversity were low continentwide but were greatest in the central part of the continent and lowest in peripheral populations. Despite low mitochondrial diversity, moose exhibited a high degree of differentiation regionally, which was not explained by isolation by distance. Our data indicate a pattern of colonization consistent with a large central population that supplied founders to peripheral populations (other than Alaska), perhaps through rare, long-distance dispersal events (leptokurtic dispersal) rather than mass dispersal by a stepping-stone model. The colonization scenario does not account for the low haplotype diversity observed in Alaska, which may be derived from a postcolonization bottleneck. Establishment of peripheral populations by leptokurtic dispersal and subsequent local adaptation may have been sufficient for development of morphological differentiation among extant subspecies.

Journal of Mammalogy↗
USGS2024

Simulation of groundwater flow in the Long Island, New York regional aquifer system for pumping and recharge conditions from 1900 to 2019

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a transient, groundwater-flow model that simulates hydrologic conditions in the Long Island aquifer system as part of an ongoing (since 2016) multiyear, cooperative investigation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. The goals of this investigation are to assist stakeholders and resource managers to evaluate the response of the hydrologic system to changes in future hydraulic stresses. Responses in the hydrologic system include changes in water levels in the hydrogeologic units; discharge to streams, coastal waters, and subsurface infrastructure; and the extent of saline groundwater in the aquifers. Hydraulic stresses include future water-supply management and changes in land use and infrastructure. The numerical model synthesizes a diverse set of physiographic, geologic, climatic, land-use, and historical population, water use, and infrastructure data to physically represent the Long Island aquifer system from land surface to bedrock and to simulate annual hydrologic conditions between 1900 and 2019. A three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework was developed from existing and recently collected borehole geologic and geophysical data collected as part of a companion drilling program. Water-transmitting properties of the principal aquifer sediments were defined in three dimensions from new and existing lithologic logs. The distribution of recharge from precipitation was estimated from landscape characteristics and climate data. Anthropogenic recharge from wastewater, leaky infrastructure, and storm runoff were estimated from population, infrastructure, and pumping data. Water-use data, including well locations, depths, and pumping rates, were obtained from historical sources and records and used to estimate pumping stresses continuously in time and space, at an annual average time scale. The data were incorporated into a three-dimensional numerical model using the U.S. Geological Survey finite difference modeling code MODFLOW 6; the model encompassed all of Long Island and surrounding surface waters and simulated historical hydrologic conditions from 1900 to 2019. The calibration process involved trial and error adjustments using prior knowledge to improve general fit to observations followed by an inverse calibration to update and optimize input parameters, using an iterative ensemble smoother algorithm implemented in PEST++ version 5.0. This resulted in a model that generally was in good agreement with observed, dynamically varying hydrologic conditions from 1900 to 2019. The calibrated model was used to develop two base-case models for scenario testing of future, hypothetical conditions where one represented average-annual conditions, and one represented average-seasonal conditions from 2010 to 2019. The model representing average-annual conditions was modified further to represent an alternate sea-level position of 6 feet above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988, and the model representing average-seasonal conditions was modified to represent the average seasonal effects of a 5-year drought imposed upon current hydrologic conditions. Recharge is the sole source of water to the aquifer system; groundwater discharges to coastal water and streams and is withdrawn by pumped wells. Model-estimated annual recharge ranged from about 11 inches in 1965 to 41 inches in 1983. On average, from 2010 to 2019, about 23 percent of water was pumped from wells, and about 47 and 27 percent discharged to coastal waters and streams, respectively; the remaining 4 percent was water that moved into storage in the aquifer matrix. Water levels on Long Island vary naturally during time in response to changes in recharge; the amount of variation is largest in the interior of the island, in areas with highest water table altitudes near groundwater divides and lowest near streams and the coastal waters. The total range of water table altitudes on Long Island between 1900 and 2019 ranged from near 0 to more than 70 feet in western parts of Long Island. The largest range in altitudes is in New York City and is associated with areas of large historical withdrawals between the 1920s and the late 1980s. Water table altitudes generally varied by less than 10 feet in eastern Suffolk County, where the aquifer is under more natural conditions. Saltwater intrusion is of great concern on Long Island, particularly in western Long Island where both the unconfined and confined parts of the aquifer system have been intruded in response to large-scale groundwater withdrawals; however, the volume of freshwater in the islandwide aquifer system only has changed by about 5 percent between 1900 and 2019. The decadal change in the freshwater volume was largest during the early and mid-20th century, corresponding to the largest historical pumping, but that volume change did not exceed 1 percent. The negligible change in freshwater volume suggests that saltwater intrusion as of 2019 was limited at an islandwide scale but continues to occur in local areas of Queens and Nassau Counties, adversely affecting current water supplies and limiting future water supplies for affected communities. The regional groundwater model developed for this investigation is a tool that can be used to help determine the viability of current and future water supplies at a regional scale and can be used to support development of additional models at finer scale to support more focused assessments of groundwater sustainability.

New York↗
USGS2023

Genetic diversity and connectivity of moose (Alces americanus americanus) in eastern North America

Genetic diversity is critical to a population’s ability to overcome gradual environment change. Large-bodied wildlife existing in regions with relatively high human population density are vulnerable to isolation-induced genetic drift, population bottlenecks, and loss of genetic diversity. Moose ( Alces americanus americanus ) in eastern North America have a complex history of drastic population changes. Current and potential threats to moose populations in this region could be exacerbated by loss of genetic diversity and connectivity among subpopulations. Existing genetic diversity, gene flow, and population clustering and fragmentation of eastern North American moose are not well quantified, while physical and anthropogenic barriers to population connectivity already exist. Here, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping of 507 moose spanning five northeastern U.S. states and one southeastern Canadian province indicated low diversity, with a high proportion of the genomes sharing identity-by-state, with no consistent evidence of non-random mating. Gene flow estimates indicated bidirectionality between all pairs of sampled areas, with magnitudes reflecting clustering and differentiation patterns. A Discriminant Analysis of Principal Components analysis indicated that these genotypic data were best described with four clusters and indicated connectivity across the Saint Lawrence River and Seaway, a potential physical barrier to gene flow. Tests for genetic differentiation indicated restricted gene flow between populations across the Saint Lawrence River and Seaway, and between many sampled areas facing expanding human activity. These results document current genetic variation and connectivity of moose populations in eastern North America, highlight potential challenges to current population connectivity, and identify areas for future research and conservation.

New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and Massa↗
USGS1994

Tectonics and geology of spreading ridge subduction at the Chile Triple Junction: a synthesis of results from Leg 141 of the Ocean Drilling Program

An active oceanic spreading ridge is being subducted beneath the South American continent at the Chile Triple Junction. This process has played a major part in the evolution of most of the continental margins that border the Pacific Ocean basin. A combination of high resolution swath bathymetric maps, seismic reflection profiles and drillhole and core data from five sites drilled during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 141 provide important data that define the tectonic, structural and stratigraphic effects of this modern example of spreading ridge subduction. A change from subduction accretion to subduction erosion occurs along-strike of the South American forearc. This change is prominently expressed by normal faulting, forearc subsidence, oversteepening of topographic slopes and intensive sedimentary mass wasting, overprinted on older signatures of sediment accretion, overthrusting and uplift processes in the forearc. Data from drill sites north of the triple junction (Sites 859-861) show that after an important phase of forearc building in the early to late Pliocene, subduction accretion had ceased in the late Pliocene. Since that time sediment on the downgoing oceanic Nazca plate has been subducted. Site 863 was drilled into the forearc in the immediate vicinity of the triple junction above the subducted spreading ridge axis. Here, thick and intensely folded and faulted trench slope sediments of Pleistocene age are currently involved in the frontal deformation of the forearc. Early faults with thrust and reverse kinematics are overprinted by later normal faults. The Chile Triple Junction is also the site of apparent ophiolite emplacement into the South American forearc. Drilling at Site 862 on the Taitao Ridge revealed an offshore volcanic sequence of Plio-Pleistocene age associated with the Taitao Fracture Zone, adjacent to exposures of the Pliocene-aged Taitao ophiolite onshore. Despite the large-scale loss of material from the forearc at the triple junction, ophiolite emplacement produces a large topographic promontory in the forearc immediately after ridge subduction, and represents the first stage of forearc rebuilding. ?? 1994 Springer-Verlag.

Geologische Rundschau↗
USGS2010

Amplification and transport of an endemic fish disease by an introduced species

The introduction of American shad from the Atlantic to the Pacific coast of North America in the late 1800’s and the subsequent population expansion in the 1980’s resulted in the amplification of Ichthyophonus sp., a Mesomycetozoean parasite of wild marine fishes. Sequence analysis of the ribosomal DNA gene complex (small subunit and internal transcribed spacer regions) and Ichthyophonus epidemiological characteristics indicate a low probability that Ichthyophonus was co-introduced with American shad from the Atlantic; rather, Ichthyophonus was likely endemic to marine areas of the Pacific region and amplified by the expanding population of a highly susceptible host species. The migratory life history of shad resulted in the transport of amplified Ichthyophonus from its endemic region in the NE Pacific to the Columbia River watershed. An Ichthyophonus epizootic occurred among American shad in the Columbia River during 2007, when infection prevalence was 72%, and 57% of the infections were scored as moderate or heavy intensities. The epizootic occurred near the record peak of shad biomass in the Columbia River, and corresponded to an influx of 1,595 mt of infected shad tissues into the Columbia River. A high potential for parasite spillback and the establishment of a freshwater Ichthyophonus life cycle in the Columbia River results from currently elevated infection pressures, broad host range, plasticity in Ichthyophonus life history stages, and precedents for establishment of the parasite in other freshwater systems. The results raise questions regarding the risk for sympatric salmonids and the role of Ichthyophonus as a population-limiting factor affecting American shad in the Columbia River.

Biological Invasions↗
USGS2017

Matching seed to site by climate similarity: techniques to prioritize plant materials development and use in restoration

Land management agencies are increasing the use of native plant materials for vegetation treatments to restore ecosystem function and maintain natural ecological integrity. This shift toward the use of natives has highlighted a need to increase the diversity of materials available. A key problem is agreeing on how many, and which, new accessions should be developed. Here we describe new methods that address this problem. Our methods use climate data to calculate a climate similarity index between two points in a defined extent. This index can be used to predict relative performance of available accessions at a target site. In addition, the index can be used in combination with standard cluster analysis algorithms to quantify and maximize climate coverage (mean climate similarity), given a modeled range extent and a specified number of accessions. We demonstrate the utility of this latter feature by applying it to the extents of 11 western North American species with proven or potential use in restoration. First, a species-specific seed transfer map can be readily generated for a species by predicting performance for accessions currently available; this map can be readily updated to accommodate new accessions. Next, the increase in climate coverage achieved by adding successive accessions can be explored, yielding information that managers can use to balance ecological and economic considerations in determining how many accessions to develop. This approach identifies sampling sites, referred to as climate centers, which contribute unique, complementary, climate coverage to accessions on hand, thus providing explicit sampling guidance for both germplasm preservation and research. We examine how these and other features of our approach add to existing methods used to guide plant materials development and use. Finally, we discuss how these new methods provide a framework that could be used to coordinate native plant materials development, evaluation, and use across agencies, regions, and research groups.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2025

Expanding barriers: Impassable gaps interior to distribution of an isolated mountain-dwelling species

Global change is expected to expand and shrink species' distributions in complex ways beyond just retraction at warm edges and expansion at cool ones. Detecting these changes is complicated by the need for robust baseline data for comparison. For instance, gaps in species' distributions may reflect long-standing patterns, recent shifts, or merely insufficient sampling effort. We investigated an apparent gap in the distribution of the American pika, Ochotona princeps , along the North American Sierra Nevada. Historical records from this region are sparse, with ~100 km separating previously documented pika-occupied sites. Surveys during 2014–2023 confirmed that the gap is currently unoccupied by pikas, and evidence of past occurrence indicates that the gap has expanded over time, likely due to contemporary global change. Sites lacking evidence of past pika occurrence were climatically and geographically more distant from sites with signs of recent (former) occurrence and currently occupied sites. Formerly and currently occupied sites were partially climatically distinct, suggesting either metapopulation-like dynamics or an extinction debt that may eventually result in further population losses at the edge of suitable climate space. The Feather River gap aligns with one of several “low points” in the otherwise continuous boreal-like conditions spanning the Cascade Range and Sierra Nevada and is coincident with discontinuities in ranges of other mammals. These results highlight the potential for climate-driven fragmentation and range retraction in regions considered climatically and geographically interior to a species' overall distribution.

California↗
USGS2013

History and evaluation of national-scale geochemical data sets for the United States

Six national-scale, or near national-scale, geochemical data sets for soils or stream sediments exist for the United States. The earliest of these, here termed the ‘Shacklette’ data set, was generated by a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) project conducted from 1961 to 1975. This project used soil collected from a depth of about 20 cm as the sampling medium at 1323 sites throughout the conterminous U.S. The National Uranium Resource Evaluation Hydrogeochemical and Stream Sediment Reconnaissance (NURE-HSSR) Program of the U.S. Department of Energy was conducted from 1975 to 1984 and collected either stream sediments, lake sediments, or soils at more than 378,000 sites in both the conterminous U.S. and Alaska. The sampled area represented about 65% of the nation. The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), from 1978 to 1982, collected samples from multiple soil horizons at sites within the major crop-growing regions of the conterminous U.S. This data set contains analyses of more than 3000 samples. The National Geochemical Survey, a USGS project conducted from 1997 to 2009, used a subset of the NURE-HSSR archival samples as its starting point and then collected primarily stream sediments, with occasional soils, in the parts of the U.S. not covered by the NURE-HSSR Program. This data set contains chemical analyses for more than 70,000 samples. The USGS, in collaboration with the Mexican Geological Survey and the Geological Survey of Canada, initiated soil sampling for the North American Soil Geochemical Landscapes Project in 2007. Sampling of three horizons or depths at more than 4800 sites in the U.S. was completed in 2010, and chemical analyses are currently ongoing. The NRCS initiated a project in the 1990s to analyze the various soil horizons from selected pedons throughout the U.S. This data set currently contains data from more than 1400 sites. This paper (1) discusses each data set in terms of its purpose, sample collection protocols, and analytical methods; and (2) evaluates each data set in terms of its appropriateness as a national-scale geochemical database and its usefulness for national-scale geochemical mapping.

Conterminous United States↗
USGS2018

Estimating distribution and connectivity of recolonizing American marten in the northeastern United States using expert elicitation techniques

The American marten Martes americana is a species of conservation concern in the northeastern United States due to widespread declines from over‐harvesting and habitat loss. Little information exists on current marten distribution and how landscape characteristics shape patterns of occupancy across the region, which could help develop effective recovery strategies. The rarity of marten and lack of historical distribution records are also problematic for region‐wide conservation planning. Expert opinion can provide a source of information for estimating species–landscape relationships and is especially useful when empirical data are sparse. We created a survey to elicit expert opinion and build a model that describes marten occupancy in the northeastern United States as a function of landscape conditions. We elicited opinions from 18 marten experts that included wildlife managers, trappers and researchers. Each expert estimated occupancy probability at 30 sites in their geographic region of expertise. We, then, fit the response data with a set of 58 models that incorporated the effects of covariates related to forest characteristics, climate, anthropogenic impacts and competition at two spatial scales (1.5 and 5 km radii), and used model selection techniques to determine the best model in the set. Three top models had strong empirical support, which we model averaged based on AIC weights. The final model included effects of five covariates at the 5‐km scale: percent canopy cover (positive), percent spruce‐fir land cover (positive), winter temperature (negative), elevation (positive) and road density (negative). A receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that the model performed well based on recent occurrence records. We mapped distribution across the region and used circuit theory to estimate movement corridors between isolated core populations. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of expert‐opinion data at modeling occupancy for rare species and provide tools for planning marten recovery in the northeastern United States.

Animal Conservation↗
USGS1998

Diatom paleoecology Pass Key core 37, Everglades National Park, Florida Bay

During the 20th century, there have been large-scale anthropogenic modifications to the South Florida ecosystem. The effects of these changes on Florida Bay and its biological communities are currently of political and scientific interest. This study is part of a larger effort to reconstruct the history of environmental changes in the bay, using paleoecological techniques. We are using diatom indicators preserved in Florida Bay sediments to infer long-term water quality, productivity, nutrient, and salinity changes. We are also obtaining information concerning the natural variability of the ecosystem. Diatoms are microscopic algae, the remains of which are generally well preserved in sediments, and their distributions are closely linked to water quality. Diatoms were extracted from a 70-cm sediment core collected from the Pass Key mudbank of Florida Bay by the U.S. Geological Survey. Between 300-500 diatom valves from each of 15 core samples were identified and counted. Estimates of absolute abundance, species richness, Shannon-Wiener diversity, and centric:pennate ratios were calculated for each sample that was counted. Information on the ecology of the diatom species is presented, and changes in diatom community composition are evaluated. Samples contained an average of four million diatom valves per gram of sediment. Major changes in the diatom community are evident down core. These include increases in the percent abundance of marine diatoms in the time period represented by the core, probably the result of increasing salinity at Pass Key. Benthic diatoms become less abundant in the top half of the core. This may be related to a number of factors including the die-off of sea grass beds or increased turbidity of the water column. Once the chronology of the Pass Key core 37 is established, these down-core changes can be related to historical events and compared with other indicators in the sedimentary record that are currently being investigated by U.S Geological Survey researchers. This report is preliminary and has not been reviewed for conformity with U.S. Geological Survey editorial standards or with the North American Stratigraphic Code. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1998

The Wisconsin Frog and Toad Survey: Update and 1984-97 trends [abstract]

The Wisconsin Frog and Toad Survey (WFTS) is a volunteer-based, roadside auditory count that began in 1981. It's protocols were recently modified for continent-wide use by the North American Amphibian Monitoring Plan (NAAMP). In 1997 we initiated a study to compare data collected by the WFTS and NAAMP protocols, in order to guide WFTS transition from its current methodology to one more compatible with NAAMP, without losing the use of data collected since 1981. In this paper we present results from the first year of this study, along with results from analyses of WFTS data, including distributional maps, 1984-97 population trends, phenological information, and progress on a new web page.

Book chapter↗