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USGS2021

System characterization report on the German Aerospace Center (DLR) Earth Sensing Imaging Spectrometer (DESIS)

Executive Summary This report addresses system characterization of the German Aerospace Center (DLR) Earth Sensing Imaging Spectrometer (DESIS) and is part of a series of system characterization reports produced and delivered by the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Cal/Val Center of Excellence. These reports present the methodology and procedures for characterization and the technical and operational information about the specific sensing system being evaluated. These reports also provide a description of data measurements, data retention practices, and data analysis results and provide system characterization conclusions. In partnership with Teledyne Brown Engineering, DLR built the DESIS hyperspectral instrument, which Teledyne Brown Engineering then integrated onto its International Space Station-based imaging platform, the Multi-User System for Earth Sensing. DLR developed the processing software and, together with Innovative Imaging and Research, completes the validation and calibration of the data products. DESIS was launched in 2018, and the data are used for scientific research in atmospheric physics and Earth sciences. The DESIS sensor contributes to the scientific and commercial utilization of the International Space Station and helps to further hyperspectral remote sensing technologies for future satellites. More information on DLR satellites and sensors is included within the “2020 Joint Agency Commercial Imagery Evaluation—Remote Sensing Satellite Compendium” and at https://www.dlr.de/DE/Home/home_node.html . The Earth Resources Observation and Science Cal/Val Center of Excellence system characterization team completed data analyses to characterize the geometric (interior and exterior), radiometric, and spatial performances. Results of these analyses indicate that DESIS has an interior geometric performance of less than a 3.30-meter (less than 0.11 pixel) root mean square error in band-to-band registration, an exterior geometric performance in the range of a 2.40- (0.08 pixel) to 17.40-meter (0.58 pixel) offset in comparison to the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, a radiometric performance in the range of −0.013 to 1.011 (offset and slope), and a spatial performance for band 130 of 1.5 pixels at full width at half maximum, with a modulation transfer function at a Nyquist frequency of 0.167.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2008

Historical Ground-Water Development in the Salinas Alluvial Fan Area, Salinas, Puerto Rico, 1900-2005

The Salinas alluvial fan area has historically been one of the most intensively used agricultural areas in the South Coastal Plain of Puerto Rico. Changes in agricultural practices and land use in the Salinas alluvial fan have also caused changes in the geographic distribution of ground-water withdrawals from the alluvial aquifer. As a result, the ground-water balance and ground-water flow pattern have changed throughout the years and may explain the presence of saline ground water along parts of the coast at present. By providing a reconstruction of historical ground-water development in the Salinas alluvial fan area, from the initial years of aquifer development at about 1900 to the most recent conditions existing in 2005, water resources managers and planners can use the results of the analysis for a more complete understanding of aquifer conditions especially pertaining to water quality. This study effort was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources as a contribution in the management of the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve. The study area encompasses about 20 mi2 (square miles) of the extensive South Coastal Plain alluvial aquifer system (fig. 1). The study area is bounded to the north by foothills of the Cordillera Central mountain chain, to the south by the Caribbean Sea, and to the east and west by the Rio Nigua de Salinas and the Quebrada Aguas Verdes, respectively. Fan-delta and alluvial deposits contain the principal aquifers in the study area.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS2022

Landsat data ecosystem case study: Actor perceptions of the use and value of landsat

It is well-known that Earth observation (EO) data plays a critical role in scientific understanding about the global environment. There is also growing support for the use of EO data to provide context-specific insights, with significant implications for their use in decision support systems. Technological development over recent years, including cloud computing infrastructure, machine learning techniques, and rapid expansion of the velocity, volume, and variety of space-borne data sources, offer huge potential to provide solutions to the myriad environmental problems facing society and the planet. The USGS/NASA Landsat Program, the longest continuously gathered source of land surface data, has played a central role in our understanding of environmental change, particularly for its contribution of longitudinal products that offer greater context for present research and decision support activities. The challenge facing the Landsat and EO data community, however, now lies in moving beyond context-specific knowledge generation to translating such knowledge into tangible value for society. Drawing from an open data ecosystem framework and qualitative social science methods, we map the Landsat data ecosystem (LDE) and the relationships linking multiple actors responsible for processing, indexing, analyzing, synthesizing, and translating raw Landsat data into information that is useful, useable, and used by end users in particular social-environmental contexts. Both the role of Big Data and associated technologies are discussed as they relate to the ultimate use of Landsat-derived information products to guide decision-making, and key data ecosystem characteristics that shape the likelihood of these products’ use are highlighted.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗

USGS2024

Amphibian and reptile conservation in the United States of America

Wildlife stewardship is of utmost importance in the United States, where management for sustainable natural resources is extended to native species including amphibians and reptiles. The U.S. wildlife conservation framework is a nested system of authorities regulating species and habitats, science-based management and policy decisions, and adaptive management as new knowledge is applied to improve outcomes of population- and habitat-management actions. Yet the approach has evolved through time, from single-species management of game species to the conservation of entire ecosystems and the biodiversity they support. Today, the mismatch of conservation ideals with conservation capacity puts nongame species like amphibians and reptiles in the crosshairs for losses due to insufficient resources to address growing numbers of threats. Despite these challenges, optimism prevails, as the management and conservation of U.S. herpetofauna is an increasing priority of the public, with considerable investment into habitat restoration, species-specific threat mitigation, research, public outreach, and education. Herein, we outline key elements of U.S. herpetological conservation efficacy: (1) a web of legal authorities governing the management of U.S. herpetofauna and their habitats; (2) a network of people and organizations that work toward filling priority knowledge gaps by conducting scientific research and that are actively engaged in the science-management interface for species-to-ecosystem level conservation decision-making, and (3) a learning framework of adaptive management within the legal landscape (“lawscape”) and for improving effectiveness of conservation actions. Lastly, the human dimension of species conservation in the U.S. is emerging, where bottom-up local efforts are having success in addition to state- and regional-scale approaches. We propose U.S. herpetological conservation priorities under three themes: threats, research, and human dimensions (people). Together these multifaceted efforts are contributing to advances in the maintenance of U.S. amphibian and reptile diversity. The success of these efforts is notable and could be viewed as a model system, where lessons learned may apply elsewhere.

Book chapter↗

USGS2023

Evolutionary fire ecology: An historical account and future directions

The idea that fire acts as an evolutionary force contributing to shaping species traits started a century ago, but had not been widely recognized until very recently. Among the first to realize this force were E dward B . Poulton, R. D ale Guthrie, and E dwin V . Komarek in animals and W illis L . Jepson, W alter W . Hough, T om M . Harris, P hilip V . Wells, and R obert W . Mutch in plants. They were all ahead of their time in their evolutionary thinking. Since then, evolutionary fire ecology has percolated very slowly into the mainstream ecology and evolutionary biology; in fact, this topic is still seldom mentioned in textbooks of ecology or evolution. Currently, there is plenty of evidence suggesting that we cannot understand the biodiversity of our planet without considering the key evolutionary role of fire. But there is still research to be done in order to fully understand fire's contribution to species evolution and to predicting species responses to rapid global changes.

BioScience↗

USGS2013

Groundwater–surface-water exchange and the geologic setting of northern Minnesota's lakes, wetlands, and streams—Modern-day relevance of Tom Winter's legacy

Tom Winter spent nearly 50 years conducting research in earth science, and he specialized in the exchange between groundwater and surface water. Tom's highly productive career began in Minnesota. This fi eld trip revisits many of the places where Tom conducted his early research and demonstrates the continuing relevance of that research. Stops and topics include the groundwater infl uence on the record low stage of White Bear Lake, the contribution of groundwater to continually rising water levels in an abandoned open-pit iron mine, hydrogeology of the Shingobee headwaters aquatic ecosystem research site, hydrogeology of Lake Sallie, geology associated with the Pillager water gap, and the hydrogeology of Little Rock Lake.

GSA Field Guides↗

USGS2024

Groundwater-Surface water interactions research: Past trends and future directions

Interactions between groundwater and surface water sustain groundwater-dependent ecosystems and regulate river temperature and biogeochemical cycles, amongst many other processes. These interactions occur in freshwater environments including rivers, springs, lakes, and wetlands, and in coastal environments via tidal pumping, submarine groundwater discharge, and seawater intrusion. Here, we explore groundwater-surface water interactions research using bibliometric analyses of titles, abstracts, and keywords from 20,275 journal papers published between 1970 and 2023 extracted from Scopus. Analyses show that research into groundwater-surface water interactions is highly multi-disciplinary, with growing contributions from the social and biological sciences. The number of groundwater-surface water interactions papers is rapidly increasing with over 1200 papers published per year since 2020. Drawing on our data-driven approach and expert knowledge, we synthesise current research trends and identify critical future research directions. Despite the thousands of papers on groundwater-surface water interactions, important processes are still difficult to quantify or predict at meaningful spatial scales to inform water-resources management. We see benefits in future groundwater-surface water interactions research focusing on: (1) using new technologies including internet-of-things-based sensors, uncrewed vehicles, and remote-sensing approaches for data collection to inform groundwater-surface water interactions at large scales, (2) seeking approaches to upscale site-specific findings to better inform management, and (3) continuing the movement towards multi-disciplinary investigations to better inform the understanding of groundwater-surface water interactions and processes that will enable better management outcomes.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2014

Linking bovine tuberculosis on cattle farms to white-tailed deer and environmental variables using Bayesian hierarchical analysis

Bovine tuberculosis is a bacterial disease caused by Mycobacterium bovis in livestock and wildlife with hosts that include Eurasian badgers ( Meles meles ), brushtail possum ( Trichosurus vulpecula ), and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ). Risk-assessment efforts in Michigan have been initiated on farms to minimize interactions of cattle with wildlife hosts but research on M. bovis on cattle farms has not investigated the spatial context of disease epidemiology. To incorporate spatially explicit data, initial likelihood of infection probabilities for cattle farms tested for M. bovis , prevalence of M. bovis in white-tailed deer, deer density, and environmental variables for each farm were modeled in a Bayesian hierarchical framework. We used geo-referenced locations of 762 cattle farms that have been tested for M. bovis , white-tailed deer prevalence, and several environmental variables that may lead to long-term survival and viability of M. bovis on farms and surrounding habitats (i.e., soil type, habitat type). Bayesian hierarchical analyses identified deer prevalence and proportion of sandy soil within our sampling grid as the most supported model. Analysis of cattle farms tested for M. bovis identified that for every 1% increase in sandy soil resulted in an increase in odds of infection by 4%. Our analysis revealed that the influence of prevalence of M. bovis in white-tailed deer was still a concern even after considerable efforts to prevent cattle interactions with white-tailed deer through on-farm mitigation and reduction in the deer population. Cattle farms test positive for M. bovis annually in our study area suggesting that the potential for an environmental source either on farms or in the surrounding landscape may contributing to new or re-infections with M. bovis . Our research provides an initial assessment of potential environmental factors that could be incorporated into additional modeling efforts as more knowledge of deer herd factors and cattle farm prevalence is documented.

Michigan↗

USGS1988

Hydrologic data for the Salt Bayou estuary near Sabine Pass, Texas, October 1984 to March 1986

The Salt Bayou estuary, located in extreme southeast Texas near Sabine Pass, has been altered by construction of the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway. The waterway has interrupted the historical saltwater-freshwater exchange in this important estuary. This alteration may have had a detrimental effect on fish production because of increased salinity, and on waterfowl production because of lower water levels. There have been proposals to develop water control structures in the major channels that would enable some regulation of the saltwater in order to restore the estuary to its approximate historic state. A cooperative effort was initiated by the Louisiana Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, and the U.S. Geological Survey to identify the fish species and their transport mechanisms. The U.S. Geological Survey's part of this effort was to describe the present hydrology of Salt Bayou. The purpose of this report is to present the hydrologic data that were collected during October 1984 through March 1986. The initial data-collection network consisted of stage gages at Keith Lake Pass, the mouth of Salt Bayou, Ten Mile Cut, the Intracoastal Waterway, and Star Lake. A stage gage at the Alligator Bayou pumping plant became available later in the study. After 6 months of data were collected, the Ten Mile Cut gage was moved to Wildcow Bayou. The gages at Keith Lake Pass, the mouth of Salt Bayou, Ten Mile Cut, and Wildcow Bayou were equipped with water-velocity recording equipment. The Keith Lake Pass gage also had temperature and specific-conductance recording equipment. Six 24-hour flow investigations were performed to calibrate the velocity recording equipment and to determine the flow at ungaged sites. Before and after these investigations, specific conductance was measured at 43 sites within the estuary. Precipitation data were obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration stations at Port Arthur, Anahuac, and Sea Rim State Park and were used to estimate the contribution of freshwater from rainfall. Evaporation data were obtained from Beaumont Research Station and were used to make estimates of water consumption from evapotranspiration. Wind speed and direction were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather station at Sea Rim State Park.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2019

Asian carp population modeling to support an Adaptive Management framework, USGS Contribution

The Spatially Explicit Asian carp Population (SEAcarP) model was developed to inform management and research decisions with the goal of minimizing the abundance of Bighead Carp and Silver Carp (collectively referred to as “Asian carp” in this document) in the upper Illinois River waterway, thereby reducing risk of population expansion toward the Great Lakes and reducing potential impacts on native species. This model provides an objective, data-driven approach to maximize return on investment of management actions and facilitates defining research and monitoring priorities.

Book chapter↗

USGS2018

The confluences of ideas leading to, and the flow of ideas emerging from, individual-based modeling of riverine fishes

In this review article, we trace the history of events leading to the development of individual-based models (IBMs) to represent aquatic organisms in rivers and streams. As a metaphor, we present this history as a series of confluences between individual scientists (tributaries) sharing ideas. We describe contributions of these models to science and management. One iconic feature of river IBMs is the linkage between flow and the physical habitat experienced by individual animals, and the first model that focused on this linkage is briefly described. We continue by reviewing the contributions of riverine IBMs to eight broad areas of scientific inquiry. The first four areas include research to understand 1) the effects of flow regimes on fish populations, 2) species interactions (e.g., size-mediated competition and predation), 3) fish movement and habitat selection, and 4) contaminant and water quality impacts on populations. Next, we review research using IBMs 5) to guide conservation biology of imperiled taxa through population viability analysis, including research 6) to understand river fragmentation by dams and reconnection, 7) to understand genetic outcomes for riverine metapopulations, and 8) to anticipate the future effects of temperature and climate change. This rich body of literature has contributed to both theoretical insights (e.g., about animal behavior and life history) and applied insights (e.g., population-level effects of flow regimes, temperature, and the effects of hydropower and other industries that share rivers with aquatic biota). We finish by exploring promising branches that lie ahead in the braided, downstream channel that represents future river modeling research.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2008

Faunal impact on vegetation structure and ecosystem function in mangrove forests: A review

The last 20 years witnessed a real paradigm shift concerning the impact of biotic factors on ecosystem functions as well as on vegetation structure of mangrove forests. Before this small scientific revolution took place, structural aspects of mangrove forests were viewed to be the result of abiotic processes acting from the bottom-up, while, at ecosystem level, the outwelling hypothesis stated that mangroves primary production was removed via tidal action and carried to adjacent nearshore ecosystems where it fuelled detrital based food-webs. The sesarmid crabs were the first macrofaunal taxon to be considered a main actor in mangrove structuring processes, thanks to a number of studies carried out in the Indo-Pacific forests in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Following these classical papers, a number of studies on Sesarmidae feeding and burrowing ecology were carried out, which leave no doubts about the great importance of these herbivorous crabs in structuring and functioning Old world ecosystems. Although Sesarmidae are still considered very important in shaping mangrove structure and functioning, recent literature emphasizes the significance of other invertebrates. The Ocypodidae have now been shown to have the same role as Sesarmidae in terms of retention of forest products and organic matter processing in New world mangroves. In both New and Old world mangroves, crabs process large amounts of algal primary production, contribute consistently to retention of mangrove production and as ecosystem engineers, change particle size distribution and enhance soil aeration. Our understanding of the strong impact of gastropods, by means of high intake rates of mangrove products and differential consumption of propagules, has changed only recently. The role of insects must also be stressed. It is now clear that older techniques used to assess herbivory rates by insects strongly underestimate their impact, both in case of leaf eating and wood boring species and that herbivorous insects can potentially play a strong role in many aspects of mangrove ecology. Moreover, researchers only recently realized that ant–plant interactions may form an important contribution to our understanding of insect–plant dynamics in these habitats. Ants seem to be able to relieve mangroves from important herbivores such as many insects and sesarmid crabs. It thus seems likely that ants have positive effects on mangrove performance.

Aquatic Botany↗

USGS2022

Detecting algal toxins and organic contaminants of concern in the environment

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Kansas Water Science Center Organic Geochemistry Research Laboratory (OGRL) was established in 1987. The OGRL is a multidisciplinary program that contributes knowledge about the distribution, fate, transport, and effects of new and understudied organic compounds that may affect human health and (or) ecosystems. The OGRL consists of two units: Algal and Other Environmental Toxins Unit and Environmental Organic Chemistry Unit. The OGRL does independent and collaborative research, develops robust analytical methods, and provides fee-for-service analytical laboratory analyses.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2019

The expectations and challenges of wildlife disease research in the era of genomics: Forecasting with a horizon scan-like exercise

The outbreak and transmission of disease-causing pathogens are contributing to the unprecedented rate of biodiversity decline. Recent advances in genomics have coalesced into powerful tools to monitor, detect, and reconstruct the role of pathogens impacting wildlife populations. Wildlife researchers are thus uniquely positioned to merge ecological and evolutionary studies with genomic technologies to exploit unprecedented ‘Big Data’ tools in disease research; however, many researchers lack the training and expertise required to use these computationally intensive methodologies. To address this disparity, the inaugural ‘Genomics of Disease in Wildlife’ workshop assembled early to mid-career professionals with expertise across scientific disciplines (e.g., genomics, wildlife biology, veterinary sciences, and conservation management) for training in the application of genomic tools to wildlife disease research. A horizon scanning-like exercise, an activity to identify forthcoming trends and challenges, performed by the workshop participants identified and discussed five themes considered to be the most pressing to the application of genomics in wildlife disease research: i) “Improving Communication”, ii) “Methodological and Analytical Advancements”, iii) “Translation into Practice”, iv) “Integrating Landscape Ecology and Genomics”, and v) “Emerging New Questions”. Wide-ranging solutions from the horizon scan were international in scope, itemized both deficiencies and strengths in wildlife genomic initiatives, promoted the use of genomic technologies to unite wildlife and human disease research, and advocated best practices for optimal use of genomic tools in wildlife disease projects. The results offer a glimpse of the potential revolution in human and wildlife disease research possible through multi-disciplinary collaborations at local, regional, and global scales.

Journal of Heredity↗

USGS2014

Effects of capturing and collaring on polar bears: findings from long-term research on the southern Beaufort Sea population

Context: The potential for research methods to affect wildlife is an increasing concern among both scientists and the public. This topic has a particular urgency for polar bears because additional research is needed to monitor and understand population responses to rapid loss of sea ice habitat. Aims: This study used data collected from polar bears sampled in the Alaska portion of the southern Beaufort Sea to investigate the potential for capture to adversely affect behaviour and vital rates. We evaluated the extent to which capture, collaring and handling may influence activity and movement days to weeks post-capture, and body mass, body condition, reproduction and survival over 6 months or more. Methods: We compared post-capture activity and movement rates, and relationships between prior capture history and body mass, body condition and reproductive success. We also summarised data on capture-related mortality. Key results: Individual-based estimates of activity and movement rates reached near-normal levels within 2–3 days and fully normal levels within 5 days post-capture. Models of activity and movement rates among all bears had poor fit, but suggested potential for prolonged, lower-level rate reductions. Repeated captures was not related to negative effects on body condition, reproduction or cub growth or survival. Capture-related mortality was substantially reduced after 1986, when immobilisation drugs were changed, with only 3 mortalities in 2517 captures from 1987–2013. Conclusions: Polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea exhibited the greatest reductions in activity and movement rates 3.5 days post-capture. These shorter-term, post-capture effects do not appear to have translated into any long-term effects on body condition, reproduction, or cub survival. Additionally, collaring had no effect on polar bear recovery rates, body condition, reproduction or cub survival. Implications: This study provides empirical evidence that current capture-based research methods do not have long-term implications, and are not contributing to observed changes in body condition, reproduction or survival in the southern Beaufort Sea. Continued refinement of capture protocols, such as the use of low-impact dart rifles and reversible drug combinations, might improve polar bear response to capture and abate short-term reductions in activity and movement post-capture.

Wildlife Research↗

USGS2026

Restoring dryland water cycles for precipitation feedback and climate stability; a review

Drylands across the globe are experiencing intensifying water scarcity, land degradation, and hydroclimatic extremes. This review integrates evidence from multidecadal field studies, hydrologic monitoring, geomorphic and ecological assessments, remote sensing, and land–atmosphere science to evaluate how restoration influences key components of the terrestrial water cycle. Low-tech natural infrastructure in dryland streams (NIDS)—including check dams, leaky weirs, one-rock dams, and gabions—has emerged as a promising but under-synthesized nature-based solution for restoring hydrologic function in these environments. We describe the mechanisms through which these interventions modify runoff detention, infiltration, sediment and alluvial storage, shallow-groundwater recharge, vegetation recovery, and surface-energy partitioning, and we summarize outcomes across diverse dryland settings. Findings consistently show increased water residence time, enhanced soil-moisture storage, expanded riparian vegetation, extended flow duration, and shifts toward greater latent-heat flux—producing localized cooling and strengthened ecohydrological feedbacks. Building on these localized effects, we articulate a hypothesis that links the spatial extent of restoration, the density of NIDS per unit drainage area, and the magnitude of the latent-to-sensible-heat contrast generated by wetter post-rainfall conditions. Specifically, we hypothesize that when NIDS are implemented at densities permitted by topography and across areas large enough to maintain elevated soil moisture after storm events, the resulting increases in latent heat flux, surface cooling, and boundary-layer moistening may enhance moisture convergence and boundary-layer development, potentially increasing the likelihood or stability of convective precipitation, analogous to how reductions in these processes have contributed to regional drought intensification. These land–atmosphere feedbacks remain untested at scale but represent an important research Frontier. By integrating hydrologic, geomorphic, ecological, and atmospheric perspectives, this review provides a comprehensive framework for considering how low-tech, landscape-scale interventions can strengthen watershed resilience and contribute to climate-relevant nature-based solutions.

Arizona↗

USGS2025

Experimental drought suppresses amphibian pathogen yet intensifies transmission and disrupts protective skin microbiome

Shifting precipitation regimes driven by global climate change can alter vertebrate behavior and host-symbiont relationships, potentially compromising host resistance to pathogen invasion. In Brazil's Atlantic Forest, a biodiversity hotspot, prior research identified drought as a key factor disrupting the skin microbiome, contributing to a die-off of pumpkin toadlets due to the invasive waterborne fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). However, observational studies cannot disentangle the direct effect of moisture on Bd growth from increased amphibian activity during wet breeding seasons. Using field enclosures, we experimentally tested the influence of drought conditions on host microhabitat use, Bd disease dynamics, and the composition and predicted Bd-inhibitory function of cutaneous bacterial communities. Each enclosure housed ecologically realistic densities of Brachycephalus pitanga , a micro-endemic pumpkin toadlet. We simulated a short-term drought in half of the enclosures using translucent tarp coverings. To track individual toadlets, we identified their unique markings and collected skin swabs biweekly over 3 months. We then implemented molecular techniques to quantify Bd loads and characterize skin bacterial diversity and composition over time. Our findings indicate that while drought may reduce overall Bd loads on hosts, this effect is partially offset by an increase in the use of water-filled areas of the enclosures and by a disruption of the protective host skin microbiome. This study provides valuable insights into the cascading impacts of climate change on animal behavior, host-symbiont interactions, and disease dynamics.

Atlantic Forest↗

USGS2023

Ground‐motion variability from kinematic rupture models and the implications for nonergodic probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

The variability of earthquake ground motions has a strong control on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), particularly for the low frequencies of exceedance used for critical facilities. We use a crossed mixed‐effects model to partition the variance components from simulated ground motions of M w "> M w 7 earthquakes on the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault zone. Total variability of simulated ground motions is approximately equivalent to empirical models. The high contribution from rupture speed suggests an avenue to reducing variability through research on the causes and predictions of rupture speed on specific faults. Simulations show a strong spatial heterogeneity in the variability that manifests from directivity effects. We illustrate the impact of this spatial heterogeneity on hazard using a partially nonergodic PSHA framework. The results highlight the benefit of accounting for directivity effects in nonergodic PSHA, in which models that account for additional processes controlling ground motions are paired with reductions in the modeled ground‐motion variability.

Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault zone↗