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At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources
USGS2012

Strain accumulation across the Wasatch Fault near Ogden, Utah

Deformation of a 70 by 40‐km trilateration network spanning the north trending Wasatch fault near Ogden, Utah, has been monitored from 1972 through 1990. All but nine of the 200 measurements are consistent with deformation that is linear in time. We presume that those nine observations are contaminated by some blunder in making the measurements and that deformation is linear in time. The strain rate over the 1972–1990 interval across a 40‐km‐wide zone west of the Wasatch fault (hanging wall block) is adequately approximated by a 0.04 ± 0.01 μstrain/yr N85°E±5° uniaxial extension. Adequate coverage of the footwall block is available only over the 1981–1990 interval, and the strain rate across a 30‐km‐wide zone there is approximated by a 0.07 ± 0.03 μstrain/yr N20°E±12° uniaxial extension. The observed extension of the hanging wall block in the direction normal to fault strike suggests that the Wasatch fault may be listric; a planar fault would produce a zone of contraction normal to the fault at the surface of the hanging wall block. The component of extension parallel to fault strike observed on the footwall block is unexplained.

Utah↗
USGS1998

The coseismic slip distributions of the 1940 and 1979 Imperial Valley, California, earthquakes and their implications

Geodetic arrays observed by the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey span the Imperial fault in southern California. For the 1940 M 7.1 Imperial Valley earthquake, a 1934–1941 triangulation network has sufficient resolution to allow inversion for the coseismic slip distribution on fault segments 5 to 25 km long extending from the surface to a depth of 9 km. The estimated right-lateral slip is 0.8 to 1.7 m on the northern 30 km of the main trace of the Imperial fault, 4.8±0.2 m on a 10-km-long segment straddling the United States - Mexico border, and 1.3±0.4 m on a southern 25-km-long segment in Mexico. Fixing this strike-slip model and inverting 1940 leveling data only for dip slip yields 0.1 m of east-side-down dip slip. The seismic moment for this model is M 0 = (3.2±0.3) ×10 19 N m. The 1979 geodetic data set, mostly elevation changes from leveling routes, has insufficient resolution for inversion. However, it is possible to use this geodetic data set and results published by others to infer that the 1940 and 1979 earthquakes may be similar on the rupture zone common to both events. Our preferred 1940 model is similar to the 1979 geodetic results of Crook [1984] on the segments where both networks have good resolution. Elevation changes from 1940 and 1979 leveling data are very similar. Thus the geodetic data corroborate the surface slip evidence of Sharp [1982b] that the 1940 and 1979 slip distributions are examples of “characteristic slip” on the northern Imperial fault.

California↗
USGS2012

Paleoseismology along the 1980 surface rupture of the Irpinia Fault: Implications for earthquake recurrence in the southern Apennines, Italy

The Irpinia fault was the source of the M s 6.9 1980 Irpinia earthquake and produced the first unequivocal historical surface faulting in Italy. Trenching of the 1980 fault scarp at Piano di Pecore, a flat intermontane basin about 5 km south of the 1980 instrumental epicenter, provides the first data on earthquake recurrence intervals, slip per event, and slip rate on a major normal fault in the Southern Apennines fault zone. The trenches exposed evidence of four pre-1980 paleoearthquakes that occurred during the past 8600 years. A best estimate average recurrence interval is 2150 years, although the time interval between individual events varies by as much as a factor of 2. Each paleo earthquake is similar to the 1980 surface rupture in amount of slip and style of deformation, which suggests that the 1980 event is characteristic for the Irpinia fault. Slip per event values average 61 cm. The net vertical displacement of 2.12–2.36 m since 8600 cal year B.P. observed in the trenches gives a vertical slip rate of 0.25–0.35 mm/yr, a dip slip rate of 0.29–0.40 mm/yr, and an extension rate of 0.14–0.20 mm/yr. Although fault behavior data are only available for the Irpinia fault they provide a starting point for evaluating earthquake recurrence and rates of deformation in southern Apennines. They suggest that (1) fault specific earthquake recurrence intervals based on the historical seismic record overestimates the occurrence of large magnitude ( M 7) earthquakes and (2) the Holocene rate of extension across the Apennines is ≤1 mm/yr. The 1980 earthquake and the paleoseismologic observations show that repeated and localized surface faulting occurs in southern Apennines and leaves subtle but distinct geomorphic evidence that can be detected with detailed and careful investigation.

Apennine Mountains↗
USGS2012

Reflections from midcrustal rocks within the Mesozoic subduction complex near the eastern Aleutian Trench

Seismic reflection data collected in 1973 by Western Geophysical Company show that highly reflective rocks make up the midcrust of the convergent margin adjacent to the eastern Aleutian Trench. These rocks form an arch that strikes obliquely across the strongly expressed northeast-southwest structural grain of exposed Mesozoic rocks. In an earlier report we proposed that the deep events mark the location of either the presently subducting plate or the top of underplated rocks. However, the short radius of curvature of this arch precludes the possibility that the deep events indicate the igneous oceanic crust. Instead, the deep reflections could be from underplated rocks that have been arched by the imbrication or underplating of strata below the reflective rocks. High-amplitude water layer and interbed multiples prevent precise connection of shallow and deep geology. For example, the Border Ranges fault, a suture between major tectonostratigraphic terranes, is not revealed on any of our seismic sections. We speculate, however, that one band of reflections that rises toward but does not reach the surface is from the Eagle River thrust fault, which separates Late Cretaceous melange from deformed turbidite sequences of the same age.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2013

Comment on “Historical perspective on seismic hazard to Hispaniola and the northeast Caribbean region” by U. ten Brink et al.

The analysis of historical earthquakes in the northeastern Caribbean by ten Brink et al. [2011, hereafter TB11] addresses the occurrence of large and destructive historical earthquakes associated with the North American-Caribbean plate boundary. One conclusion presented in TB11 is that the recurrence interval for large earthquakes on the left-lateral, strike-slip Septentrional Fault (SF) (Figure 1a) is approximately 300 years. Their Figure 7 shows rupture of the SF across the entire island of Hispaniola in CE 1200, 1542, and 1842. Our comment challenges this model for SF earthquake recurrence because it is inconsistent with our published paleoseismic data that show no large historical earthquake is associated with surface rupture along the SF east of Santiago (Figure 1a)[Prentice et al., 1993; Mann et al., 1998; Prentice et al., 2003].

Hispaniola↗
USGS1997

Resolution of fault slip along the 470-km-long rupture of the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake and its implications

Data from all available triangulation networks affected by the 1906 earthquake have been combined to assess the trade-off between slip resolution and its uncertainty and to construct a conservative image of coseismic slip along the rupture. Because of varying network aperture and station density, slip resolution is very uneven. Although slip is determined within uncertainties of ??1.0 m along 60% of the fault, constraints are poor on the remaining, mostly offshore portions of the rupture. Slip decreases from maxima of 8.6 and 7.5 m at Shelter Cove and Tomales Bay to 4.5 m near Mount Tamalpais and 2.7 m at Loma Prieta. The geodetically derived slip distribution is in poor agreement with estimates based on analysis of S wave seismograms, probably because these waves register only 20-30% of the total seismic moment obtained from longer-period surface waves. Consideration of a range of fault geometries for 1906 slip near Loma Prieta indicates right-lateral motions lie between 2.3 and 3.1 m. These values are considerably greater than the 1.5 m of measured surface slip on which several assessments of high earthquake hazard for this fault segment were based. This factor, along with the absence of 1989 slippage where 1906 surface slip was used to make the forecasts, casts doubt on some claims of success in predicting the 1989 M = 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2012

Origin of Hawaiian tholeiite: A metasomatic model

Two voluminous magma types generated in the mantle underlying the Pacific plate are mid‐ocean ridge tholeiite (MORB) erupted at the East Pacific Rise spreading center and Hawaiian tholeiite (HT) erupted above the Hawaiian hot spot or melting anomaly. MORB has low initial 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios and low amounts of all incompatible trace elements including rare earths; chondrite‐normalized patterns are depleted in light rare earths. HT, by contrast, has higher initial 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and higher amounts of incompatible trace elements; chondrite‐nor‐malized patterns are enriched in the middle and light rare earths. HT is generally poorer in CaO and Al 2 O 3 and much richer in total iron and TiO 2 compared with MORB having the same MgO content. Primary magma compositions for the two volcanic systems are calculated in Fe‐Mg equilibrium with residual olivine (Fo 92 ). MORB is generated by partial melting of a trace element depleted Iherzolite source leaving a residual assemblage dominated by olivine and orthopyroxene. The percentage of partial melting for a primary magma containing 15% MgO is calculated to be 35–42% in a source mantle having a heavy rare earth content of 3×chondrite and 33–35% MgO. HT, represented by Kilauea tholeiite, is generated by partial melting of a mixture of unmelted and residual mantle for MORB which has been modified by metasomatic addition of a nephelinitic fluid, amphibole, and minor amounts of apatite and Fe‐bearing phases such as sulfide and magnetite/ilmenite. This model yields a picritic magma in equilbrium with magnesian dunite at high (>40%) degrees of partial melting. The source also has 35% MgO before partial melting. Melting in both systems in polyvariant and not controlled by lower‐temperature invariant equilibria. The low‐velocity zone is considered to be the source of metasomatic fluids that are driven upward into the lowermost lithosphere in response to a thermal plume. Picritic primary magmas are produced by shear melting, localized in the zone of thinned and metasomatized lithosphere beneath Hawaii. Melt extraction is rapid and episodic at intervals of months to decades; magma is not stored in the mantle but passes upward to a plexus of storage reservoirs located 2–6 km beneath the surface of Kilauea. Kilauea primary magmas fractionate olivine during upward transport to reach bulk compositions of 13–14% MgO in storage. Different magma batches erupted to the surface, distinguished by different major and minor element compositons compared at similar MgO content, represent combinations of differing degrees of metasomatic enrichment, differing degrees of partial melting, and some effects of premelting mantle heterogeneity.

Hawaii↗
USGS2003

Slip history and dynamic implications of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake

[1] We investigate the rupture process of the 1999 Chi‐Chi, Taiwan, earthquake using extensive near‐source observations, including three‐component velocity waveforms at 36 strong motion stations and 119 GPS measurements. A three‐plane fault geometry derived from our previous inversion using only static data [ Ji et al. , 2001 ] is applied. The slip amplitude, rake angle, rupture initiation time, and risetime function are inverted simultaneously with a recently developed finite fault inverse method that combines a wavelet transform approach with a simulated annealing algorithm [ Ji et al. , 2002b ]. The inversion results are validated by the forward prediction of an independent data set, the teleseismic P and SH ground velocities, with notable agreement. The results show that the total seismic moment release of this earthquake is 2.7 × 10 20 N m and that most of the slip occurred in a triangular‐shaped asperity involving two fault segments, which is consistent with our previous static inversion. The rupture front propagates with an average rupture velocity of ∼2.0 km s −1 , and the average slip duration (risetime) is 7.2 s. Several interesting observations related to the temporal evolution of the Chi‐Chi earthquake are also investigated, including (1) the strong effect of the sinuous fault plane of the Chelungpu fault on spatial and temporal variations in slip history, (2) the intersection of fault 1 and fault 2 not being a strong impediment to the rupture propagation, and (3) the observation that the peak slip velocity near the surface is, in general, higher than on the deeper portion of the fault plane, as predicted by dynamic modeling.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2002

Preeruptive inflation and surface interferometric coherence characteristics revealed by satellite radar interferometry at Makushin Volcano, Alaska: 1993-2000

Pilot reports in January 1995 and geologic field observations from the summer of 1996 indicate that a relatively small explosive eruption of Makushin, one of the more frequently active volcanoes in the Aleutian arc of Alaska, occurred on 30 January 1995. Several independent radar interferograms that each span the time period from October 1993 to September 1995 show evidence of ???7 cm of uplift centered on the volcano's east flank, which we interpret as preeruptive inflation of a ???7-km-deep magma source (??V = 0.022 km3). Subsequent interferograms for 1995-2000, a period that included no reported eruptive activity, show no evidence of additional ground deformation. Interferometric coherence at C band is found to persist for 3 years or more on lava flow and other rocky surfaces covered with short grass and sparsely distributed tall grass and for at least 1 year on most pyroclastic deposits. On lava flow and rocky surfaces with dense tall grass and on alluvium, coherence lasts for a few months. Snow and ice surfaces lose coherence within a few days. This extended timeframe of coherence over a variety of surface materials makes C band radar interferometry an effective tool for studying volcano deformation in Alaska and other similar high-latitude regions.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2012

Interpretation of changes in water level accompanying fault creep and implications for earthquake prediction

Quantitative calculations for the effect of a fault creep event on observations of changes in water level in wells provide an approach to the tectonic interpretation of these phenomena. For the pore pressure field associated with an idealized creep event having an exponential displacement versus time curve, an analytic expression has been obtained in terms of exponential-integral functions. The pore pressure versus time curves for observation points near the fault are pulselike; a sharp pressure increase (or decrease, depending on the direction of propagation) is followed by more gradual decay to the normal level after the creep event. The time function of the water level change may be obtained by applying the filter—derived by A. G. Johnson and others to determine the influence of atmospheric pressure on water level—to the analytic pore pressure versus time curves. The resulting water level curves show a fairly rapid increase (or decrease) and then a very gradual return to normal. The results of this analytic model do not reproduce the steplike changes in water level observed by Johnson and others. If the procedure used to obtain the water level from the pore pressure is correct, these results suggest that steplike changes in water level are not produced by smoothly propagating creep events but by creep events that propagate discontinously, by changes in the bulk properties of the region around the well, or by some other mechanism. In addition, simplistic calculations show that significant pressure field variations and water level changes near the surface may be expected to accompany a propagating creep event on a buried fault. Water level changes of as much as several meters may be expected at the surface for a creep event having a dislocation amplitude of l m on a semi-infinite dislocation surface extending downward from a depth of 10 km and propagating horizontally at a rate of 10 km/day. The maximum near-surface effect should be observed at a horizontal distance from the fault about equal to the depth of the top of the dislocation surface. These results are consistent with the observations made in China of large water level changes preceding large earthquakes, if some sort of aseismic creep event at depth precedes these earthquakes.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2008

Observations and interpretation of fundamental mode Rayleigh wavefields recorded by the Transportable Array (USArray)

Broadband recordings of the dense Transportable Array (TA) in the western United States provide unparalleled detailed images of long-period seismic surface wavefields. With 400 stations spanning most of the western United States, wavefronts of fundamental mode Rayleigh waves may be visualized coherently across the array at periods ???40 s. In order to constrain the Rayleigh wave phase velocity structure in the western United States, I assemble a data set of vertical component seismograms from 53 teleseismic events recorded by the TA from April 2006 to October 2007. Complex amplitude spectra from these recordings at peni ods 27-100 s are interpreted using the multiplane wave tomographic method of Friederich and Wielandt (1995) and Pollitz (1999). This analysis yields detailed surface wave phase velocity and three-dimensional shear wave velocity patterns across the North American plate boundary zone, elucidating the active processes in the highly heterogeneous western U.S. upper mantle.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2021

Geodetic constraints on a 25-year magmatic inflation episode near Three Sisters, central Oregon

Crustal inflation near the Three Sisters volcanic center documented since the mid-1990s has persisted for more than two decades. We update past analyses of the event through 2020 by simultaneously inverting InSAR interferograms, GPS time series, and leveling data for time-dependent volcanic deformation source parameters. We explore several source models to estimate how the deformation rate varied through time and to identify parameters that can reproduce measured deformation. Our preferred model is a Mogi source 4.1 km below sea level (5.9 km below the surface) about 5 km west of the summit of South Sister. Inflation started in late 1995 or 1996; the rate increased rapidly during 1998–1999, and peaked in late 1999, resulting in maximum surface uplift of about 30 cm by mid-2020. Since 2000, the inflation rate generally declined exponentially with a time constant of about 6 years. Two source inflation scenarios fit the data equally well. In the first, the crust surrounding the source is elastic and the net source-volume increase, which we attribute to persistent magma input, has been about 49 × 10 6 m 3 . The second scenario adds a viscoelastic shell surrounding the Mogi source. In that case, an injection of about 21 × 10 6 m 3 of magma prior to 2000, followed by continuing relaxation of the viscoelastic shell, can account for most of the observed surface deformation. In both scenarios, modeling reveals quasiperiodic increases in the inflation rate (pulses) with a recurrence interval of 3–4 years, both before and after 2000.

Oregon↗
USGS2009

Constraining earthquake source inversions with GPS data: 1. Resolution-based removal of artifacts

We present a resolution analysis of an inversion of GPS data from the 2004 M w 6.0 Parkfield earthquake. This earthquake was recorded at thirteen 1-Hz GPS receivers, which provides for a truly coseismic data set that can be used to infer the static slip field. We find that the resolution of our inverted slip model is poor at depth and near the edges of the modeled fault plane that are far from GPS receivers. The spatial heterogeneity of the model resolution in the static field inversion leads to artifacts in poorly resolved areas of the fault plane. These artifacts look qualitatively similar to asperities commonly seen in the final slip models of earthquake source inversions, but in this inversion they are caused by a surplus of free parameters. The location of the artifacts depends on the station geometry and the assumed velocity structure. We demonstrate that a nonuniform gridding of model parameters on the fault can remove these artifacts from the inversion. We generate a nonuniform grid with a grid spacing that matches the local resolution length on the fault and show that it outperforms uniform grids, which either generate spurious structure in poorly resolved regions or lose recoverable information in well-resolved areas of the fault. In a synthetic test, the nonuniform grid correctly averages slip in poorly resolved areas of the fault while recovering small-scale structure near the surface. Finally, we present an inversion of the Parkfield GPS data set on the nonuniform grid and analyze the errors in the final model. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2000

Fracture process zone in granite

In uniaxial compression tests performed on Aue granite cores (diameter 50 mm, length 100 mm), a steel loading plate was used to induce the formation of a discrete shear fracture. A zone of distributed microcracks surrounds the tip of the propagating fracture. This process zone is imaged by locating acoustic emission events using 12 piezoceramic sensors attached to the samples. Propagation velocity of the process zone is varied by using the rate of acoustic emissions to control the applied axial force. The resulting velocities range from 2 mm/s in displacement-controlled tests to 2 μm/s in tests controlled by acoustic emission rate. Wave velocities and amplitudes are monitored during fault formation. P waves transmitted through the approaching process zone show a drop in amplitude of 26 dB, and ultrasonic velocities are reduced by 10%. The width of the process zone is ∼9 times the grain diameter inferred from acoustic data but is only 2 times the grain size from optical crack inspection. The process zone of fast propagating fractures is wider than for slow ones. The density of microcracks and acoustic emissions increases approaching the main fracture. Shear displacement scales linearly with fracture length. Fault plane solutions from acoustic events show similar orientation of nodal planes on both sides of the shear fracture. The ratio of the process zone width to the fault length in Aue granite ranges from 0.01 to 0.1 inferred from crack data and acoustic emissions, respectively. The fracture surface energy is estimated from microstructure analysis to be ∼2 J. A lower bound estimate for the energy dissipated by acoustic events is 0.1 J.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2003

Irregular recurrence of paleoearthquakes along the central Garlock fault near El Paso Peaks, California

New investigations at the El Paso Peaks paleoseismic site have refined and extended the record of paleoearthquakes for the central Garlock fault. Event evidence, in the form of buried fissures, scarps, folds, and upward terminations, has allowed us to identify six well-resolved earthquakes, designated as events W, U, R, Q, K, and F, within the last ???7000 years. The exposures that we excavated did not reveal additional evidence for three poorly resolved events reported by McGill and Rockwell [1998]. Evidence for event Y, identified in the previous study, was reexamined and found not to be a paleoearthquake. Radiocarbon dates of detrital charcoal, combined with a method of interpolating the event ages with revised sedimentation rates, provide our preferred constraints on the timing of faulting events. The most recent surface-rupturing earthquake, event W, occurred between A.D. 1450 and 1640. The penultimate event U occurred between A.D. 675 and 950. Event R, which was unrecognized in the previous study, occurred between A.D. 250 and 475. Event Q occurred relatively shortly before event R, between A.D. 25 and 275. Event K occurred between 3340 and 2930 B.C. The oldest identified paleoearthquake, event F, occurred between 5300 and 4670 B.C. The event ages indicate that earthquake recurrence is highly irregular at the El Paso Peaks site, with individual preferred intervals ranging from as little as 215 years to as many as 3300 years. The irregular recurrence of surface-rupturing earthquakes along the central Garlock fault may be related to temporal and spatial clustering of earthquakes proposed for faults in the Eastern California Shear Zone.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2019

Evaluation of temporally correlated noise in global navigation satellite system time series: Geodetic monument performance

Estimates of background noise of Global Positioning System‐derived time series of positions for 740 sites in the western United States are examined. These data consist of daily epochs of three components of displacements that are at least 9.75 years long within the interval between 2000 and 2018. We find that these time series have significant temporal correlations that could be represented as a combination of white, flicker, random‐walk, and band‐pass filtered noise. From this noise model, two other metrics are computed: the root‐mean‐square of seasonal noise, that is, the integrated power spectrum between 0.5 and 2 cycles per year, and the standard error in position rate for a 10‐year‐long time series. These two metrics are used to evaluate potential correlations with different geographic regions and with different methods of construction of monuments used to attach the Global Positioning System antenna to the Earth's surface. The sites with the lowest noise, both in terms of rate error and seasonal root‐mean‐square, are located in semiarid regions east of the rain shadow provided by the Cascade and Sierra Nevada mountain ranges. In addition, according to statistical rank tests, monuments known as drilled‐braced monuments perform 30% to 50% better than other monument types (buildings, boreholes, piers, etc.) in terms of having smaller rate errors and lower seasonal noise.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2016

Long period seismicity and very long period infrasound driven by shallow magmatic degassing at Mount Pagan, Mariana Islands

Long period (LP) seismicity and very long period infrasound (iVLP) were recorded during continuous degassing from Mount Pagan, Mariana Islands, in July 2013 to January 2014. The frequency content of the LP and iVLP events and delay times between the two arrivals were remarkably stable and indicate nearly co-located sources. Using phase-weighted stacking over similar events to dampen noise, we find that the LP source centroid is located 60 m below and 180 m west of the summit vent. The moment tensor reveals a volumetric source modeled as resonance of a subhorizontal sill intersecting a dike. We model the seismoacoustic wavefields with a coupled earth-air 3-D finite difference code. The ratios of pressure to velocity measured at the infrasound arrays are an order of magnitude larger than the synthetic ratios, so the iVLP is not the result of LP energy transmitting into the atmosphere at its epicenter. Based on crater shape and dimensions determined by structure from motion, we model the iVLP as acoustic resonance of an exponential horn. The source of the continuous plume from gas analysis is shallow magmatic degassing, which repeatedly pressurized the dike-sill portion of the conduit over the 7 months of observation. Periodic gas release caused the geologically controlled sill to partially collapse and resonate, while venting of gas at the surface triggered resonance in the crater. LP degassing only accounts for ~12% of total degassing, indicating that most degassing is relatively aseismic and that multiple active pathways exist beneath the vent.

Mount Pagan↗
USGS2014

Slip rates and spatially variable creep on faults of the northern San Andreas system inferred through Bayesian inversion of Global Positioning System data

Fault creep, depending on its rate and spatial extent, is thought to reduce earthquake hazard by releasing tectonic strain aseismically. We use Bayesian inversion and a newly expanded GPS data set to infer the deep slip rates below assigned locking depths on the San Andreas, Maacama, and Bartlett Springs Faults of Northern California and, for the latter two, the spatially variable interseismic creep rate above the locking depth. We estimate deep slip rates of 21.5 ± 0.5, 13.1 ± 0.8, and 7.5 ± 0.7 mm/yr below 16 km, 9 km, and 13 km on the San Andreas, Maacama, and Bartlett Springs Faults, respectively. We infer that on average the Bartlett Springs fault creeps from the Earth's surface to 13 km depth, and below 5 km the creep rate approaches the deep slip rate. This implies that microseismicity may extend below the locking depth; however, we cannot rule out the presence of locked patches in the seismogenic zone that could generate moderate earthquakes. Our estimated Maacama creep rate, while comparable to the inferred deep slip rate at the Earth's surface, decreases with depth, implying a slip deficit exists. The Maacama deep slip rate estimate, 13.1 mm/yr, exceeds long-term geologic slip rate estimates, perhaps due to distributed off-fault strain or the presence of multiple active fault strands. While our creep rate estimates are relatively insensitive to choice of model locking depth, insufficient independent information regarding locking depths is a source of epistemic uncertainty that impacts deep slip rate estimates.

California↗