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At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Establishing a baseline of estuarine submerged aquatic vegetation resources across salinity zones within coastal areas of the northern Gulf of Mexico

Coastal ecosystems are dynamic and productive areas that are vulnerable to effects of global climate change. Despite their potentially limited spatial extent, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) beds function in coastal ecosystems as foundation species, and perform important ecological services. However, limited understanding of the factors controlling SAV distribution and abundance across multiple salinity zones (fresh, intermediate, brackish, and saline) in the northern Gulf of Mexico restricts the ability of models to accurately predict resource availability. We sampled 384 potential coastal SAV sites across the northern Gulf of Mexico in 2013 and 2014, and examined community and species-specific SAV distribution and biomass in relation to year, salinity, turbidity, and water depth. After two years of sampling, 14 species of SAV were documented, with three species (coontail [Ceratophyllum demersum], Eurasian watermilfoil [Myriophyllum spicatum], and widgeon grass [Ruppia maritima]) accounting for 54% of above-ground biomass collected. Salinity and water depth were dominant drivers of species assemblages but had little effect on SAV biomass. Predicted changes in salinity and water depths along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast will likely alter SAV production and species assemblages, shifting to more saline and depth-tolerant assemblages, which in turn may affect habitat and food resources for associated faunal species.

Gulf of Mexico↗
USGS2018

Stratifying ocean sampling globally and with depth to account for environmental variability

With increasing depth, the ocean is less sampled for physical, chemical and biological variables. Using the Global Marine Environmental Datasets (GMED) and Ecological Marine Units (EMUs) , we show that spatial variation in environmental variables decreases with depth. This is also the case over temporal scales because seasonal change, surface weather conditions, and biological activity are highest in shallow depths. A stratified sampling approach to ocean sampling is therefore proposed whereby deeper environments, both pelagic and benthic, would be sampled with relatively lower spatial and temporal resolutions. Sampling should combine measurements of physical and chemical parameters with biological species distributions, even though species identification is difficult to automate. Species distribution data are essential to infer ecosystem structure and function from environmental data. We conclude that a globally comprehensive, stratification-based ocean sampling program would be both scientifically justifiable and cost-effective.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2023

The Landscape Data Commons: A system for standardizing, accessing, and applying large environmental datasets for agroecosystem research and management

Understanding where, when, and why agroecosystems are changing requires quality information about ecosystems that span land tenure, ecological processes, and spatial scales. Over the past two decades, land management agencies and research groups have adopted a suite of standardized methods for monitoring rangelands, which have been implemented at over 85,000 monitoring locations globally. However, the ability to use these data to understand agroecosystem dynamics and change across scales and across land ownership has been limited because, until now, these data have not been available in a harmonized, accessible format for analyses, modeling, and decision-support tools. We present the Landscape Data Commons, a cyberinfrastructure platform that harmonizes and aggregates standardized agroecosystem data, enables linkages to models, and facilitates analysis and interpretation of data within decision-support tools. The Landscape Data Commons provides a community platform for users to contribute data and develop next-generation tools to support agroecosystem management through the 21st century.

Agricultural & Environmental Letters↗
USGS2012

Leveraging modern climatology to increase adaptive capacity across protected area networks

Human-driven changes in the global environment pose an increasingly urgent challenge for the management of ecosystems that is made all the more difficult by the uncertain future of both environmental conditions and ecological responses. Land managers need strategies to increase regional adaptive capacity, but relevant and rapid assessment approaches are lacking. To address this need, we developed a method to assess regional protected area networks across biophysically important climatic gradients often linked to biodiversity and ecosystem function. We plot the land of the southwestern United States across axes of historical climate space, and identify landscapes that may serve as strategic additions to current protected area portfolios. Considering climate space is straightforward, and it can be applied using a variety of relevant climate parameters across differing levels of land protection status. The resulting maps identify lands that are climatically distinct from existing protected areas, and may be utilized in combination with other ecological and socio-economic information essential to collaborative landscape-scale decision-making. Alongside other strategies intended to protect species of special concern, natural resources, and other ecosystem services, the methods presented herein provide another important hedging strategy intended to increase the adaptive capacity of protected area networks.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2015

Implications of scale-independent habitat specialization on persistence of a rare small mammal

We assessed the habitat use patterns of the Amargosa vole Microtus californicus scirpensis , an endangered rodent endemic to wetland vegetation along a 3.5 km stretch of the Amargosa River in the Mojave Desert, USA. Our goals were to: (1) quantify the vole’s abundance, occupancy rates and habitat selection patterns along gradients of vegetation cover and spatial scale; (2) identify the processes that likely had the greatest influence on its habitat selection patterns. We trapped voles monthly in six 1 ha grids from January to May 2012 and measured habitat structure at subgrid (View the MathML source225m2) and trap (View the MathML source1m2) scales in winter and spring seasons. Regardless of scale, analyses of density, occupancy and vegetation structure consistently indicated that voles occurred in patches of bulrush (Schoenoplectus americanus ; Cyperaceae) where cover >50%. The majority of evidence indicates the vole's habitat selectivity is likely driven by bulrush providing protection from intense predation. However, a combination of selective habitat use and limited movement resulted in a high proportion of apparently suitable bulrush patches being unoccupied. This suggests the Amargosa vole's habitat selection behavior confers individual benefits but may not allow the overall population to persist in a changing environment.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2020

An ecological and conservation perspective

Natural ecosystems are facing unprecedented threats which directly threaten human well-being through decreases in critical ecosystem services (IPBES 2019). The top five drivers causing the largest global impacts to biodiversity and ecosystem services include: 1) changes in land and sea use; 2) direct exploitation of organisms; 3) climate change; 4) pollution, and 5) invasive alien species (IPBES 2019). Although One Health acknowledges the link between the health of humans, animals, and the environment, One Health discussions have historically focused on the prevention and control of infectious disease at the human-animal interface rather than these large-scale drivers of health. While One Health has succeeded in bringing awareness to the need for proactive disease control measures such as strengthened biosecurity and vaccine development (e.g., Machalaba et al., 2018; Middleton et al., 2014), disease is only one component of health. In this chapter, we explore the potential for One Health to shift its focus from disease prevention to health promotion to more fully integrate solutions that protect the health of humans, animals, and the ecosystems on which we all depend for our economies, livelihoods, food security, and health. This shift will facilitate a more seamless inclusion of ecological health and environmental conservation in the One Health paradigm and can serve as the basis for a comprehensive approach to complex problems at the root of global health. We also suggest a framework for creating and applying health metrics for wildlife and ecological systems that will be essential for measuring the success of actions aimed at maintaining or shifting systems to desired states.

Book chapter↗
USGS2023

Observed and projected functional reorganization of riverine fish assemblages from global change

Climate and land-use/land-cover change (‘global change’) are restructuring biodiversity, globally. Broadly, environmental conditions are expected to become warmer, potentially drier (particularly in arid regions), and more anthropogenically developed in the future, with spatiotemporally complex effects on ecological communities. We used functional traits to inform Chesapeake Bay Watershed fish responses to future climate and land-use scenarios (2030, 2060, and 2090). We modelled the future habitat suitability of focal species representative of key trait axes (substrate, flow, temperature, reproduction, and trophic) and used functional and phylogenetic metrics to assess variable assemblage responses across physiographic regions and habitat sizes (headwaters through large rivers). Our focal species analysis projected future habitat suitability gains for carnivorous species with preferences for warm water, pool habitats, and fine or vegetated substrates. At the assemblage level, models projected decreasing habitat suitability for cold-water, rheophilic, and lithophilic individuals but increasing suitability for carnivores in the future across all regions. Projected responses of functional and phylogenetic diversity and redundancy differed among regions. Lowland regions were projected to become less functionally and phylogenetically diverse and more redundant while upland regions (and smaller habitat sizes) were projected to become more diverse and less redundant. Next, we assessed how this model projected assemblage changes 2005-2030 related to observed time-series trends (1999–2016). Halfway through the initial projecting period (2005–2030), we found observed trends broadly followed modelled patterns of increasing proportions of carnivorous and lithophilic individuals in lowland regions but showed opposing patterns for functional and phylogenetic metrics. Leveraging observed and predicted analyses simultaneously helps elucidate the instances and causes of discrepancies between model predictions and ongoing observed changes. Collectively, results highlight the complexity of global change impacts across broad landscapes that likely relate to differences in assemblages’ intrinsic sensitivities and external exposure to stressors.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2012

Projections and downscaling of 21st century temperatures, precipitation, radiative fluxes and winds for the southwestern US, with focus on the Lake Tahoe basin

Recent projections of global climate changes in response to increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere include warming in the Southwestern US and, especially, in the vicinity of Lake Tahoe of from about +3°C to +6°C by end of century and changes in precipitation on the order of 5-10 % increases or (more commonly) decreases, depending on the climate model considered. Along with these basic changes, other climate variables like solar insolation, downwelling (longwave) radiant heat, and winds may change. Together these climate changes may result in changes in the hydrology of the Tahoe basin and potential changes in lake overturning and ecological regimes. Current climate projections, however, are generally spatially too coarse (with grid cells separated by 1 to 2° latitude and longitude) for direct use in assessments of the vulnerabilities of the much smaller Tahoe basin. Thus, daily temperatures, precipitation, winds, and downward radiation fluxes from selected global projections have been downscaled by a statistical method called the constructed-analogues method onto 10 to 12 km grids over the Southwest and especially over Lake Tahoe. Precipitation, solar insolation and winds over the Tahoe basin change only moderately (and with indeterminate signs) in the downscaled projections, whereas temperatures and downward longwave fluxes increase along with imposed increases in global greenhouse-gas concentrations.

Arizona;California;Idaho;Nevada;Oregon;Utah↗
USGS2024

Supporting climate adaptation for rural Mekong River Basin communities in Thailand

Climate change impacts on large river basins, such as the Mekong River Basin (MRB), are complex due to shared governance and interconnected socioeconomic areas, making them highly vulnerable to change. The MRB, spanning six countries including Thailand, is crucial for the food and economic security of > 60 million people. However, in 2021, Thailand was ranked as the 9th highest risk country affected by climate change. To integrate climate adaptation in Thailand's MRB, we examined the effects of climate change on rapidly developing farmer and fisher communities in northeastern Thailand and explored feasible adaptation options. Using an interdisciplinary approach that included literature review, participatory action methods, and the resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework, we found that climate change is projected to increase temperatures, precipitation, extreme events, erosion, and water clarity, while decreasing heavy sediment transport. These changes negatively impact agriculture, fisheries, human health, and tourism. We identified several adaptation strategies across environmental, ecological, and human health categories to accommodate local needs, such as preventing habitat degradation (e.g., from dams and deforestation), providing fish refuge and passage, and supporting technical capacity. Community-driven adaptation planning and implementation are essential for supporting global sustainable development in a changing climate.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Ch↗
USGS2007

Remote sensing-based predictors improve distribution models of rare, early successional and broadleaf tree species in Utah

1. Compared to bioclimatic variables, remote sensing predictors are rarely used for predictive species modelling. When used, the predictors represent typically habitat classifications or filters rather than gradual spectral, surface or biophysical properties. Consequently, the full potential of remotely sensed predictors for modelling the spatial distribution of species remains unexplored. Here we analysed the partial contributions of remotely sensed and climatic predictor sets to explain and predict the distribution of 19 tree species in Utah. We also tested how these partial contributions were related to characteristics such as successional types or species traits. 2. We developed two spatial predictor sets of remotely sensed and topo-climatic variables to explain the distribution of tree species. We used variation partitioning techniques applied to generalized linear models to explore the combined and partial predictive powers of the two predictor sets. Non-parametric tests were used to explore the relationships between the partial model contributions of both predictor sets and species characteristics. 3. More than 60% of the variation explained by the models represented contributions by one of the two partial predictor sets alone, with topo-climatic variables outperforming the remotely sensed predictors. However, the partial models derived from only remotely sensed predictors still provided high model accuracies, indicating a significant correlation between climate and remote sensing variables. The overall accuracy of the models was high, but small sample sizes had a strong effect on cross-validated accuracies for rare species. 4. Models of early successional and broadleaf species benefited significantly more from adding remotely sensed predictors than did late seral and needleleaf species. The core-satellite species types differed significantly with respect to overall model accuracies. Models of satellite and urban species, both with low prevalence, benefited more from use of remotely sensed predictors than did the more frequent core species. 5. Synthesis and applications. If carefully prepared, remotely sensed variables are useful additional predictors for the spatial distribution of trees. Major improvements resulted for deciduous, early successional, satellite and rare species. The ability to improve model accuracy for species having markedly different life history strategies is a crucial step for assessing effects of global change. ?? 2007 The Authors.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2017

Incorporating population viability models into species status assessment and listing decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Assessment of a species' status is a key part of management decision making for endangered and threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Predicting the future state of the species is an essential part of species status assessment, and projection models can play an important role in developing predictions. We built a stochastic simulation model that incorporated parametric and environmental uncertainty to predict the probable future status of the Sonoran desert tortoise in the southwestern United States and North Central Mexico. Sonoran desert tortoise was a Candidate species for listing under the Endangered Species Act, and decision makers wanted to use model predictions in their decision making process. The model accounted for future habitat loss and possible effects of climate change induced droughts to predict future population growth rates, abundances, and quasi-extinction probabilities. Our model predicts that the population will likely decline over the next few decades, but there is very low probability of quasi-extinction less than 75 years into the future. Increases in drought frequency and intensity may increase extinction risk for the species. Our model helped decision makers predict and characterize uncertainty about the future status of the species in their listing decision. We incorporated complex ecological processes (e.g., climate change effects on tortoises) in transparent and explicit ways tailored to support decision making processes related to endangered species.

Sonoran Desert↗
USGS2026

Cognitive and institutional barriers to effective natural resource management under global change

Many of the most challenging decisions facing natural resource managers today can be understood as time dependent. The concept of time-dependent decisions is useful when considering natural resource management decisions that are characterized by nonstationarity in the underlying ecological system, uncertainty surrounding key ecological relationships, efficacy of management interventions, and difficult trade-offs between the present and the future. In a time-dependent decision, the optimal action changes depending on when the decision is made. We surveyed literature from the fields of cognitive psychology, environmental decision-making, and natural resource management to identify a key set of cognitive and institutional barriers that prevent decision makers from recognizing their decisions as time dependent. This failure obscures the complexity of nonstationarity, uncertainty, and intertemporal choice in natural resource management and facilitates assumptions of stationarity and time independence. We used land acquisition in the context of climate change as an example to explore the barriers to effective time-dependent decision-making at both individual and institutional scales. Using a theoretical model of land acquisition, we quantified the value of accounting for time dependence by comparing the performance of time-dependent, nonstationary decision models with models that assume time independence and stationarity. We found that the conservation value of land acquisition decisions was significantly improved through the use of time-dependent optimization models and that this improvement increased as nonstationarity increased. Finally, explicitly recognizing the time dependence of many natural resource management decisions will help improve the utility of existing decision tools and frameworks.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2017

Climate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils

Drylands cover 40% of the global terrestrial surface and provide important ecosystem services. While drylands as a whole are expected to increase in extent and aridity in coming decades, temperature and precipitation forecasts vary by latitude and geographic region suggesting different trajectories for tropical, subtropical, and temperate drylands. Uncertainty in the future of tropical and subtropical drylands is well constrained, whereas soil moisture and ecological droughts, which drive vegetation productivity and composition, remain poorly understood in temperate drylands. Here we show that, over the twenty first century, temperate drylands may contract by a third, primarily converting to subtropical drylands, and that deep soil layers could be increasingly dry during the growing season. These changes imply major shifts in vegetation and ecosystem service delivery. Our results illustrate the importance of appropriate drought measures and, as a global study that focuses on temperate drylands, highlight a distinct fate for these highly populated areas.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2013

Maintaining and restoring sustainable ecosystems in southern Nevada

Managers in southern Nevada are challenge with determining appropriate goals and objectives and developing viable approaches for maintaining and restoring sustainable ecosystems in a time of rapid socio-ecological and environmental change. Sustainable or "healthy" ecosystems supply clean air, water and habitat for a diverse array of plants and animals. As described in Chapter 1, sustainable ecosystems retain characteristic processes like hydrological flux and storage, geomorphic processes, biogeochemical cycling and storage, biological activity and productivity, and population regeneration and reproduction over the normal cycle of disturbance events (modified from Chapin and others 1996 and Christensen and others 1996). Ecological restoration of stressed or disturbed ecosystems in an integral part of managing for sustainable ecosystems. The Society of Ecological Restoration International (SERI) defines ecological restoration as the process of assisting the recovery of an ecosystem that has been degraded, damaged, or destroyed (SERI 2004). Many of the southern Nevada's ecosystems are being subjected to anthropogenic stressors that span global, regional, and local scales (Chapter 2)., and are crossing ecological thresholds to new alternative states (Chapter 4 and Chapter 5). These alternative states often represent novel communities with disturbance regimes that differ significantly from historic conditions. Past management and restoration goals often focused on returning ecosystems to pre-disturbance conditions (Harris and others 2006). This approach assumes stable or equilibrium conditions and ignores changes in ecosystems processes due to land uses, increases in CO 2 concentrations, and climate change. A more realistic approach is to base management and restoration goals on the current potential of an ecosystem to support a given set of ecological conditions, and on the likelihood of future change due to warming climate (Harris and others 2006). This approach requires understanding ecosystem resilience to anthropogenic disturbance and climate change, the alternative states that exist for ecosystems, and the factors that result in threshold crossing (Bestelmeyer and others 2009; Hobbs and Harris 2001; Stingham and others 2003; Whisemnant 1999). It also requires the ability to predict how climate is likely to influence ecosystems in the future (Harris and others 2006). This chapter addresses the restoration aspects of Sub-goal 1.3 in the SNAP Science Research Strategy which is to restore and sustain proper function of southern Nevada's watersheds and landscapes (able 1.3; Turner and others 2009). The effects of global, regional and local stresses on southern Nevada ecosystems are presented in Chapter 2. Here, we discuss appropriate objectives and develop guidelines for maintaining and restoring southern Nevada ecosystems. We then discuss the differences in ecological resilience to stress and disturbance and resistance to invasive species in southern Nevada ecosystems and describe restoration and management approaches for the different ecosystem types. We conclude with knowledge gaps and management implications.

Nevada↗
USGS2022

Shifting precipitation regimes alter the phenology and population dynamics of low latitude ectotherms

Predicting how species respond to changes in climate is critical to conserving biodiversity. Modeling efforts to date have largely centered on predicting the effects of warming temperatures on temperate species phenology. In and near the tropics, the effects of a warming planet on species phenology are more likely to be driven by changes in the seasonal precipitation cycle rather than temperature. To demonstrate the importance of considering precipitation-driven phenology in ecological studies, we present a case study wherein we construct a mechanistic population model for a rare subtropical butterfly (Miami blue butterfly, Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri ) and use a suite of global climate models to project butterfly populations into the future. Across all iterations of the model, the trajectory of Miami blue populations is uncertain. We identify both biological uncertainty (unknown diapause survival rate) and climate uncertainty (ambiguity in the sign of precipitation change across climate models), and their interaction as key factors that determine persistence vs. extinction. Despite uncertainty, the most optimistic iteration of the model predicts that Miami blue butterfly populations will decline under the higher emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). The lack of climate model agreement across the projection ensemble suggests that investigations into the effect of climate change on precipitation-driven phenology require a higher level of rigor in the uncertainty analysis compared to analogous studies of temperature. For tropical species, a mechanistic approach that incorporates both biological and climate uncertainty is the best path forward to understand the effect shifting precipitation regimes have on phenology and population dynamics.

Florida↗
USGS2024

The where and why of large wood occurrence in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers

Large wood (LW) plays important geomorphic and ecological roles in rivers and is widely used as a restoration tool. Changes to floodplain land use and historical removal have altered wood dynamics in fluvial systems globally. We know little about the distribution and dynamics of LW in great rivers (approximately >10 5 km 2 ) like the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers despite its ecosystem importance and use in restoration projects. We assessed LW occurrence data collected by the fisheries component of the Upper Mississippi River Restoration Program's Long Term Resource Monitoring element. We analysed 25 years of data collected across six reaches of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers that represented contrasting physiographic settings, and across four aquatic area types comprising gradients of hydrology, connectivity and geomorphology. We tested hypotheses on drivers of LW occurrence using generalised linear mixed effects models, where occurrence was predicted by reach- and local-scale environmental variables. Occurrence varied significantly across reaches and aquatic area types. In general, wood occurred more frequently upriver and in side channels compared to other aquatic areas. Large wood was most strongly predicted systemically by reach identity but not local-scale variables, underscoring the importance of broad-scale physiographic gradients in defining hydrogeomorphic processes. Floodplain forests and shoreline revetment were consistently important predictors across reaches. Our findings show that the spatial variability of LW occurrence reflects the physical variability of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. They also reveal the value in using geomorphic classifications as frameworks for understanding physical processes like LW dynamics because of their ability to contextualise site-scale conditions. The baseline understanding of LW abundance across different hydrogeomorphic gradients and scales presented here can give insight into how to more effectively target restoration efforts in great rivers and contribute to a broader understanding of LW dynamics where such studies have been lacking.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2015

Climate change implications in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America

We synthesized an expert review of climate change implications for hydroecological and terrestrial ecological systems in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America. Our synthesis is based on an analysis of projected temperature, precipitation, and snowfall stratified by eight biogeoclimatic provinces and three vegetation zones. Five IPCC CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are the basis for projections of mean annual temperature increasing from a current average (1961–1990) of 3.2 °C to 4.9–6.9 °C (5 GCM range; RCP4.5 scenario) or 6.4–8.7 °C (RCP8.5), mean annual precipitation increasing from 3130 mm to 3210–3400 mm (3–9 % increase) or 3320–3690 mm (6–18 % increase), and total precipitation as snow decreasing from 1200 mm to 940–720 mm (22–40 % decrease) or 720–500 mm (40–58 % decrease) by the 2080s (2071–2100; 30-year normal period). These projected changes are anticipated to result in a cascade of ecosystem-level effects including: increased frequency of flooding and rain-on-snow events; an elevated snowline and reduced snowpack; changes in the timing and magnitude of stream flow, freshwater thermal regimes, and riverine nutrient exports; shrinking alpine habitats; altitudinal and latitudinal expansion of lowland and subalpine forest types; shifts in suitable habitat boundaries for vegetation and wildlife communities; adverse effects on species with rare ecological niches or limited dispersibility; and shifts in anadromous salmon distribution and productivity. Our collaborative synthesis of potential impacts highlights the coupling of social and ecological systems that characterize the region as well as a number of major information gaps to help guide assessments of future conditions and adaptive capacity.

Alaska, British Columbia↗
USGS2020

An integrative ecological drought framework to span plant stress to ecosystem transformation

Droughts have increased globally in the twenty-first century and are expected to become more extreme and widespread in the future. Assessments of how drought affects plants and ecosystems lack consistency in scope and methodology, confounding efforts to mechanistically interpret structural and functional impacts and predict future transformations under climate change. To promote integration among studies, we identify water deficit conditions that are ecologically meaningful, clarify the stages in which ecological drought progresses, and consider approaches to synthesize drought effects across multiple species and ecosystems. This improved ecological drought framework reveals advantages of using different ecological drought metrics and strengthens approaches to distinguish ecosystem stress from crossing an irreversible threshold. We employ several well-studied examples from water-limited ecosystems, which contain plants that are often at their physiological limits and highly responsive to climate variability. We suggest that emerging research on early warning signs, drought recovery, and the effects of land management interventions be incorporated into the ecological drought framework. An integrative approach to understand ecological drought can accelerate scientific advancement and create opportunity to adapt and prepare for crossing irreversible ecosystem thresholds.

Ecosystems↗