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USGS2020

Genetic diversity targets and indicators in the CBD post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework must be improved

The 196 parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) will soon agree to a post-2020 global framework for conserving the three elements of biodiversity (genetic, species, and ecosystem diversity) while ensuring sustainable development and benefit sharing. As the most significant global conservation policy mechanism, the new CBD framework has far-reaching consequences- it will guide conservation actions and reporting for each member country until 2050. In previous CBD strategies, as well as other major conservation policy mechanisms, targets and indicators for genetic diversity (variation at the DNA level within species, which facilitates species adaptation and ecosystem function) were undeveloped and focused on species of agricultural relevance. We assert that, to meet global conservation goals, genetic diversity within all species, not just domesticated species and their wild relatives, must be conserved and monitored using appropriate metrics . Building on suggestions in a recent Letter in Science (Laikre et al., 2020) we expand argumentation for three new, pragmatic genetic indicators and modifications to two current indicators for maintaining genetic diversity and adaptive capacity of all species, and provide guidance on their practical use. The indicators are: 1) the number of populations with effective population size above versus below 500, 2) the proportion of populations maintained within species, 3) the number of species and populations in which genetic diversity is monitored using DNA-based methods. We also present and discuss Goals and Action Targets for post-2020 biodiversity conservation which are connected to these indicators and underlying data. These pragmatic indicators and goals have utility beyond the CBD; they should benefit conservation and monitoring of genetic diversity via national and global policy for decades to come.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2010

Ants as a measure of effectiveness of habitat conservation planning in southern California

In the United States multispecies habitat conservation plans were meant to be the solution to conflicts between economic development and protection of biological diversity. Although now widely applied, questions exist concerning the scientific credibility of the conservation planning process and effectiveness of the plans. We used ants to assess performance of one of the first regional conservation plans developed in the United States, the Orange County Central‐Coastal Natural Community Conservation Plan (NCCP), in meeting its broader conservation objectives of biodiversity and ecosystem‐level protection. We collected pitfall data on ants for over 3 years on 172 sites established across a network of conservation lands in coastal southern California. Although recovered native ant diversity for the study area was high, site‐occupancy models indicated the invasive and ecologically disruptive Argentine ant ( Linepithema humile ) was present at 29% of sites, and sites located within 200 m of urban and agricultural areas were more likely to have been invaded. Within invaded sites, native ants were largely displaced, and their median species richness declined by more than 60% compared with uninvaded sites. At the time of planning, 24% of the 15,133‐ha reserve system established by Orange County NCCP fell within 200 m of an urban or agricultural edge. With complete build out of lands surrounding the reserve, the proportion of the reserve system vulnerable to invasion will grow to 44%. Our data indicate that simply protecting designated areas from development is not enough. If habitat conservation plans are to fulfill their conservation promise of ecosystem‐level protection, a more‐integrated and systematic approach to the process of habitat conservation planning is needed .

California↗
USGS2025

Methodology for quantifying biodiversity

Protected and Conserved Areas (PCAs) are usually created and managed for multiple values, with biodiversity conservation being the primary value for most PCAs (see Chapter 1). When using Natural Climate Solutions (NCS) or Ecosystem-based Management (EBM) approaches to climate change mitigation, it is important to ensure that there are no unintended negative consequences on biodiversity and co-benefits for biodiversity are sought. This requires baseline biodiversity information and periodic monitoring. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) has developed a monitoring framework to measure progress (CBD COP 15 2022) towards the GBF. The framework consists of: • headline indicators for national, regional and global monitoring; • global level indicators (collated from yes/no responses in national reports and used to provide a count of the number of countries having undertaken specific activities); • component indicators (which are a list of optional indicators that may apply at global, regional, national and sub-national levels); • complementary indicators (which are a list of optional indicators for thematic or in-depth analysis of each goal and target). Further details of the monitoring framework can be found in Decision 15/5: Monitoring framework for the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (CBD COP 15, 2022). See Table 5.1 for headline indicators and related targets that they measure. These indicators are used to track national progress towards the GBF. However, those designing sub-national or regional PCA frameworks can use them as well. Biodiversity can be measured at different scales, both spatially and temporally, and at different levels and attributes of biological organisation (Noss, 1990). The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) (Convention on Biological Diversity, 2022, December 18) includes goals and targets across scales, with Targets 1 and 3 focused on spatial planning and PCA creation, Targets 2 and 4 focused on restoration and species management to prevent extinction, Target 5 focused on fish stocks, Target 8 on minimising climate change impacts, Target 11 on ecosystem services, and Target 21 on biodiversity information for monitoring the GBF.

IUCN WCPA Protected Area Technical Report Series↗
USGS2023

Secondary forest within a timber plantation concession in Borneo contributes to a diverse mammal assemblage

Commercial tree plantations of fast-growing species have become increasingly important in Southeast Asia to meet global demand for wood and wood fiber products. There is a growing need to understand more about their value for wildlife and how they can be managed for biodiversity. We evaluated the effects of landscape attributes on mammal communities in a timber concession consisting of 83 % secondary forest and 17 % tree plantations in northern Sabah, Malaysia. Using camera traps, we compared mammalian species assemblages of secondary forest and commercial tree plantation stands and identified habitat predictors associated with total mammal species detections and species richness in the landscape mosaic. We used 87 camera stations deployed for 23 days across two major land-use types: 62 sites in secondary forest (previously logged natural forest) and 25 sites in tree plantations. We evaluated variation in species richness in these two major land-use categories and assessed the effects of natural and anthropogenic predictors on variation in total mammal detections and species richness. We detected at least 23 large and medium-sized mammal species over 2035 trap nights. Fourteen of those species were classified as threatened or near-threatened by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. Rarefaction did not reveal differences in mammal species richness or diversity between camera sites placed in tree plantations and secondary forests, likely because most camera sites in tree plantations were close to secondary forest and comprised < 30 % of all sites. However, generalized linear models indicated lower mammal diversity as proportions of tree plantation and proximity to human settlements increased. Total mammal records, including those of threatened mammals, increased with greater proportions of secondary forest. Retention of larger tracts of secondary forest around plantation areas appears to be important to maintain mammalian species richness and contributes to the conservation value of commercial timber plantations. These findings may assist in the management of mammals of conservation concern and implementation of adaptive management plans to enhance biodiversity conservation in commercial plantations.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2016

Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in the southeastern United States

Two recent investigations of climate-change vulnerability for 19 terrestrial, aquatic, riparian, and coastal ecosystems of the southeastern United States have identified a number of important considerations, including potential for changes in hydrology, disturbance regimes, and interspecies interactions. Complementary approaches using geospatial analysis and literature synthesis integrated information on ecosystem biogeography and biodiversity, climate projections, vegetation dynamics, soil and water characteristics, anthropogenic threats, conservation status, sea-level rise, and coastal flooding impacts. Across a diverse set of ecosystems—ranging in size from dozens of square meters to thousands of square kilometers—quantitative and qualitative assessments identified types of climate-change exposure, evaluated sensitivity, and explored potential adaptive capacity. These analyses highlighted key gaps in scientific understanding and suggested priorities for future research. Together, these studies help create a foundation for ecosystem-level analysis of climate-change vulnerability to support effective biodiversity conservation in the southeastern United States.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Lou↗
USGS2016

Multi-scale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change

Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land-use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multi-scale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods including graph theory, circuit theory and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this California threatened species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American Southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously-distributed habitat, and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2021

A new composite abundance metric detects stream fish declines and community homogenization during six decades of invasions

Aim We developed a new technique, utilizing species-specific counts of individuals from historical fish community samples, to examine landscape-level, spatio-temporal trends in relative abundance distributions. Abundance-based historical distribution analyses are often plagued by data comparability issues, but provide critical information about community composition trends inaccessible to those using analyses based only on species presence–absence. We established trends in native and non-native fish abundance and community homogenization, uniqueness and diversity to help local conservation managers prioritize targets and motivate similar studies globally to support fish conservation. Location Upper and middle New River (UMNR) basin, Appalachian Mountains, USA. Methods We compiled catch data from 61 years of fish community surveys (1958–2019) and tested for community homogenization by comparing data from repeatedly sampled sites (1900s versus 2000s samples) using dispersion analyses. We measured community uniqueness (site contributions to beta diversity) and species diversity (Shannon index) at sampled streams to identify potential conservation hotspots. We then used regression analyses and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests to examine species-specific basin-wide and local abundance trends and identify species of potential conservation concern. Results Dispersion of sites in species abundance space was significantly greater in the 1900s compared with the 2000s, indicating homogenization had occurred. Of 36 native species analysed, 44.4% (16) showed basin-wide declines. Non-native species exhibited mixed patterns; site-level abundance increased in 2 of 15 species analysed (13%). Main conclusions Our results indicate basin-wide community homogenization has occurred within the UMNR, but many unique and diverse communities persist. If conserved, these could help maintain regional fish diversity. We found basin-wide declines in four endemic species, as well as spread patterns of non-native and native species that were not detected by a presence–absence analysis applied within the same study area. This finding illustrates the importance of considering both species’ abundance and occurrence patterns as separate dimensions of biodiversity to inform conservation planning.

North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia↗
USGS2003

Applying ecological criteria to marine reserve design: A case study from the California Channel Islands

Using ecological criteria as a theoretical framework, we describe the steps involved in designing a network of marine reserves for conservation and fisheries management. Although we describe the case study of the Channel Islands, the approach to marine reserve design may be effective in other regions where traditional management alone does not sustain marine resources. A group of agencies, organizations, and individuals established clear goals for marine reserves in the Channel Islands, including conservation of ecosystem biodiversity, sustainable fisheries, economic viability, natural and cultural heritage, and education. Given the constraints of risk management, experimental design, monitoring, and enforcement, scientists recommended at least one, but no more than four, reserves in each biogeographic region. In general, the percentage of an area to be included in a reserve network depends on the goals. In the Channel Islands, after consideration of both conservation goals and the risk from human threats and natural catastrophes, scientists recommended reserving an area of 30–50% of all representative habitats in each biogeographic region. For most species of concern, except pinnipeds and seabirds, information about distributions, dispersal, and population growth was limited. As an alternative to species distribution information, suitable habitats for species of concern were used to locate potential reserve sites. We used a simulated annealing algorithm to identify potential reserve network scenarios that would represent all habitats within the smallest area possible. The analysis produced an array of potential reserve network scenarios that all met the established goals.

California↗
USGS2026

Harmonization of aggregated freshwater biotic data to support continental and global assessment

Biodiversity loss and conservation are increasingly coming into focus in global policy fora, requiring information and assessments at wider spatial and temporal scales than previously considered. However, the monitoring framework required to support such data collection and assessment is lacking in many countries and is not harmonized across countries, hampering these efforts. Aggregation of existing freshwater data offers a solution to the problem of assessing status and trends of ecosystems and biodiversity at large spatial scales in the absence of nationally coordinated monitoring efforts. Analysis of aggregated data from different sources, collected using different protocols and with varying levels of metadata and supporting data, can be challenging and requires decisions regarding data comparability. In this paper, we identify the challenges inherent in harmonizing aggregated freshwater data for analysis, including general concerns related to research goals, spatial and temporal scale, sample selection, sampling effort, and site integrity. We also discuss the challenges related to measured parameters, sampled habitats, sample collection and processing methods, and data integrity for phytoplankton, benthic algae, macrophytes, zooplankton, benthic macroinvertebrates, fish, and supporting variables such as water and sediment chemistry. We provide a workflow to evaluate each of these challenges and make decisions about how best to work with the data. Finally, we review a case study from a large-scale analysis of freshwater data from the circumpolar Arctic region that exemplifies the encountered challenges and the chosen solutions. Through the description of the case study, we provide practical solutions to support aggregation and analysis of existing freshwater data. As global conversations about biodiversity status and trends continue, the demand for large-scale analyses of data from different sources will only grow. In the absence of globally harmonized monitoring, we are faced with the need to ensure comparability of data, making expert judgements where needed to support sound conclusions.

PLOS Water↗
USGS2023

Future-proofing the Emergency Recovery Plan for freshwater biodiversity

Freshwater biodiversity loss is accelerating globally, but humanity can change this trajectory through actions that enable recovery. To be successful, these actions require coordination and planning at a global scale. The Emergency Recovery Plan for global freshwater biodiversity aims to reduce the risk for freshwater biodiversity loss through six priority actions: (1) accelerate implementation of environmental flows; (2) improve water quality to sustain aquatic life; (3) protect and restore critical habitats; (4) manage exploitation of freshwater species and riverine aggregates; (5) prevent and control nonnative species invasions in freshwater habitats; and (6) safeguard and restore freshwater connectivity. These actions can be implemented using future-proofing approaches that anticipate future risks (e.g., emerging pollutants, new invaders, and synergistic effects) and minimize likely stressors to make conservation of freshwater biodiversity more resilient to climate change and other global environmental challenges. While uncertainty with respect to past observations is not a new concern for freshwater biodiversity, future-proofing has the distinction of accounting for the uncertainty of future conditions that have no historical baseline. The level of uncertainty with respect to future conditions is unprecedented. Future-proofing of the Emergency Recovery Plan for freshwater biodiversity will require anticipating future changes and developing and implementing actions to address those future changes. Here, we showcase future-proofing approaches likely to be successful using local case studies and examples. Ensuring that response options within the Emergency Recovery Plan are future-proofed will provide decision makers with science-informed choices, even in the face of uncertain and potentially new future conditions. We are at an inflection point for global freshwater biodiversity loss; learning from defeats and successes can support improved actions toward a sustainable future.

Environmental Reviews↗
USGS2024

Empirical assessments of the type and strength of stream fish habitat associations can advance understanding of functional diversity and promote effective conservation.

The ability to accurately quantify biodiversity is fundamental to understanding ecological trends, identifying drivers of declines, and selecting effective conservation options. Scientists and resource managers have grappled with what metrics best show relevant biodiversity patterns and are still practical enough to aid on-the-ground resource conservation. Our purpose is to construct empirically derived, functional habitat guilds for prairie stream fish, then recommend future directions for constructing and using diversity metrics that aid field-based conservation. Working in the Upper Neosho River, KS, USA, we used univariate methods, cluster analysis, non-metric multi-dimensional scaling, and an analysis of similarity to functionally group stream fish taxa. The 11 most abundant fish species grouped into seven ecological guilds: riffle specialist, pool specialist, riffle generalist, pool generalist, riffle–run generalist, pool–run generalist, and generalist. Combining the habitat type and strength of association added ecological accuracy to our species groups. Employing multiple statistical methods increased confidence and generality in our grouping results. Moving forward will require a coordinated, coalition-driven, conservation-related strategy on which researchers and practitioners collaborate to synthesize diverse empirical results, organize general principles of structure and function, and balance accuracy with practicality.

Kansas↗
USGS2022

Estimating species misclassification with occupancy dynamics and encounter rates: A semi-supervised, individual-level approach

1. Large-scale, long-term biodiversity monitoring is essential to conservation, land management, and identifying threats to biodiversity. However, multispecies surveys are prone to various types of observation error, including false positive/negative detection, and misclassification, where a species is thought to have been encountered but not correctly identified. Previous methods assume an imperfect classifier produces species-level classifications, but in practice, particularly with human observers, we may end up with extraspecific classifications including `unknown', morphospecies designations, and taxonomic identifications coarser than species. Disregarding these types of species misclassification in biodiversity monitoring datasets can bias estimates of ecologically important quantities such as demographic ratess, occurrence, and species richness. 2. Here we present a joint classification-occupancy model that accounts for species non-detection and misclassification. Our framework accommodates extinction and colonization dynamics, allows for additional uncertain `morphospecies' designations, and makes use of individual specimens with known species identities in a semi-supervised setting. We compare the performance of our model to a classification-only model that discards information about occupancy and encounter rate. We illustrate our model with an empirical case study of the carabid beetle (Carabidae) community at the National Ecological Observatory Network Niwot Ridge Mountain Research Station, near Boulder, CO, USA. We also use simulations to evaluate model performance through validation metrics where varying fractions of the data are confirmed. 3. The model supported imperfect classifier accuracy and favored certain true species classifications strongly for some morphospecies. The model outperformed (e.g., precision) the reduced model that discarded occupancy information, and these differences were most pronounced for abundant species. 4. Spatial and temporal dynamics from modeled occupancy and encounter rates may inform species misclassification probability, but this idea has not yet been tested. Our statistical framework explores this opportunity, and can be applied to datasets with imperfect species detection and classification, limited verification data, and non-species classifications.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2023

Toward conciliation in the habitat fragmentation and biodiversity debate

Landscape-scale conservation planning is urgent given the extent of anthropogenic land-use change and its pervasive impacts on Earth’s biodiversity. However, such efforts are hindered by disagreements over the effects of habitat fragmentation on biodiversity that have persisted since the mid-1970s. We contend that nearly 50 years later, these disagreements have become a locked-in debate characterized by polarized, unproductive discourse and a lack of consistent guidance for landscape managers and policy makers. Here, we highlight the need for a unified set of principles regarding conservation in fragmented landscapes, identify potential reasons for disparate conclusions in fragmentation research, and suggest ways for the ecological community to advance research that leads to consensus rather than the perpetuation of disagreement. Explicit efforts to develop and test multiple competing hypotheses, inter-laboratory collaborations, and acknowledgement of multiple interacting effects will be vital for moving the fragmentation debate forward. We argue that we in the ecology community should be responsible for helping to reconcile different views across scales, systems, and methodological approaches to advance conservation planning within a landscape ecology framework.

Landscape Ecology↗
USGS2013

Drought, deluge and declines: the impact of precipitation extremes on amphibians in a changing climate

The Class Amphibia is one of the most severely impacted taxa in an on-going global biodiversity crisis. Because amphibian reproduction is tightly associated with the presence of water, climatic changes that affect water availability pose a particularly menacing threat to both aquatic and terrestrial-breeding amphibians. We explore the impacts that one facet of climate change—that of extreme variation in precipitation—may have on amphibians. This variation is manifested principally as increases in the incidence and severity of both drought and major storm events. We stress the need to consider not only total precipitation amounts but also the pattern and timing of rainfall events. Such rainfall “pulses” are likely to become increasingly more influential on amphibians, especially in relation to seasonal reproduction. Changes in reproductive phenology can strongly influence the outcome of competitive and predatory interactions, thus potentially altering community dynamics in assemblages of co-existing species. We present a conceptual model to illustrate possible landscape and metapopulation consequences of alternative climate change scenarios for pond-breeding amphibians, using the Mole Salamander, Ambystoma talpoideum , as an example. Although amphibians have evolved a variety of life history strategies that enable them to cope with environmental uncertainty, it is unclear whether adaptations can keep pace with the escalating rate of climate change. Climate change, especially in combination with other stressors, is a daunting challenge for the persistence of amphibians and, thus, the conservation of global biodiversity.

Biology↗
USGS2021

Resistance and resilience of pelagic and littoral fishes to drought in the San Francisco Estuary

Many estuarine ecosystems and the fish communities that inhabit them have undergone substantial changes in the past several decades, largely due to multiple interacting stressors that are often of anthropogenic origin. Few are more impactful than droughts, which are predicted to increase in both frequency and severity with climate change. In this study, we examined over five decades of fish monitoring data from the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, to evaluate the resistance and resilience of fish communities to disturbance from prolonged drought events. High resistance was defined by the lack of decline in species occurrence from a wet to a subsequent drought period, while high resilience was defined by the increase in species occurrence from a drought to a subsequent wet period. We found some unifying themes connecting the multiple drought events over the 50‐yr period. Pelagic fishes consistently declined during droughts (low resistance), but exhibit a considerable amount of resiliency and often rebound in the subsequent wet years. However, full recovery does not occur in all wet years following droughts, leading to permanently lower baseline numbers for some pelagic fishes over time. In contrast, littoral fishes seem to be more resistant to drought and may even increase in occurrence during dry years. Based on the consistent detrimental effects of drought on pelagic fishes within the San Francisco Estuary and the inability of these fish populations to recover in some years, we conclude that freshwater flow remains a crucial but not sufficient management tool for the conservation of estuarine biodiversity.

California↗
USGS2023

People need freshwater biodiversity

Freshwater biodiversity, from fish to frogs and microbes to macrophytes, provides a vast array of services to people. Mounting concerns focus on the accelerating pace of biodiversity loss and declining ecological function within freshwater ecosystems that continue to threaten these natural benefits. Here, we catalog nine fundamental ecosystem services that the biotic components of indigenous freshwater biodiversity provide to people, organized into three categories: material (food; health and genetic resources; material goods), non-material (culture; education and science; recreation), and regulating (catchment integrity; climate regulation; water purification and nutrient cycling). If freshwater biodiversity is protected, conserved, and restored in an integrated manner, as well as more broadly appreciated by humanity, it will continue to contribute to human well-being and our sustainable future via this wide range of services and associated nature-based solutions to our sustainable future.

WIREs Water↗
USGS2020

Threshold responses of songbirds to forest loss and fragmentation across the Marcellus-Utica shale gas region

Context Since 2005, unconventional gas develop[1]ment has rapidly altered forests across the Marcellus[1]Utica shale basin in the central Appalachian region of the eastern United States, an area of high conservation value for biodiversity. Much is still unknown about ecological impacts of associated land cover change. Objectives Our goal was to identify threshold responses among bird species and habitat guilds to (1) overall forest loss and fragmentation in affected landscapes, and (2) distance from anthropogenic landscapes, and (2) distance from anthropogenic disturbance, both related and unrelated to shale gas. Methods We conducted 2589 bird surveys at 190 sites across this region, and quantified community[1]level and species-specific thresholds relating to forest cover and distance to anthropogenic disturbance, using Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis (TITAN). Results Forest interior species decreased abruptly in abundance and frequency of occurrence above a threshold of 17.0% overall forest loss, while early successional and synanthropic species increased abruptly above 30.5–36.5% forest loss, respectively. Broad quantile intervals around responses to distance from anthropogenic disturbance suggest these were not sharp threshold responses, but more gradual or linear responses. Among forest interior species evaluated, 48.1% increased in abundance farther from shale gas development, while 55.6% of early successional and synanthropic species decreased. Conclusions We found evidence of avian threshold responses to overall forest loss and fragmentation in affected landscapes across the Marcellus-Utica shale region. Our results suggest that efforts to avoid shale gas development in regional core forests—particularly those still retaining C 83% forest cover—can reduce negative effects on area-sensitive, forest interior dependent species

Maryland, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virgi↗
USGS2023

Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: Creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures

To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity—Living in harmony with nature—is that “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people”. In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of “living in harmony with nature” have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures.

Sustainability Science↗