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Understanding risk and resilience to natural hazards

Natural hazards threaten the safety and economic wellbeing of communities. These hazards include sudden-onset hazards, such as earthquakes, and slowly emerging, chronic hazards, such as those associated with climate change. To help public officials, emergency and other managers, the business community, and at-risk individuals reduce the risks posed by such hazards, the USGS Western Geographic Science Center is developing new ways to assess and communicate societal risk and resilience to catastrophic and chronic natural hazards.

Fact Sheet↗

Prepublication communication of research results

Publishing of scientific findings is central to the scientific process, and it is traditional to consider findings “provisional” until accepted by a peer-reviewed journal. Until publication, communication of provisional findings beyond participants in the study is typically limited. This practice helps assure scientific integrity. However, a dilemma arises when a provisional finding has urgent societal consequences that may be exacerbated by delay. This dilemma may be particularly pronounced when a discovery concerns wildlife health, which could have implications for conservation, public health (i.e., zoonoses), or domestic animal health (e.g., avian influenza). A scientist may see a need for prepublication communication but consider such communication to be problematic. We suggest that common concerns about directed prepublication communication are generally misplaced. Our perspective comes from natural resources science and management, but we suspect that this situation could arise in any branch of science and that discussing these issues will help scientists who may not routinely work with public officials navigate an unfamiliar situation.

EcoHealth↗

Evaluating changes to reservoir rule curves using historical water-level data

Flood control reservoirs are typically managed through rule curves (i.e. target water levels) which control the storage and release timing of flood waters. Changes to rule curves are often contemplated and requested by various user groups and management agencies with no information available about the actual flood risk of such requests. Methods of estimating flood risk in reservoirs are not easily available to those unfamiliar with hydrological models that track water movement through a river basin. We developed a quantile regression model that uses readily available daily water-level data to estimate risk of spilling. Our model provided a relatively simple process for estimating the maximum applicable water level under a specific flood risk for any day of the year. This water level represents an upper-limit umbrella under which water levels can be operated in a variety of ways. Our model allows the visualization of water-level management under a user-specified flood risk and provides a framework for incorporating the effect of a changing environment on water-level management in reservoirs, but is not designed to replace existing hydrological models. The model can improve communication and collaboration among agencies responsible for managing natural resources dependent on reservoir water levels.

International Journal of River Basin Management↗

The influence of hazard models on GIS-based regional risk assessments and mitigation policies

Geographic information systems (GIS) are important tools for understanding and communicating the spatial distribution of risks associated with natural hazards in regional economies. We present a GIS-based decision support system (DSS) for assessing community vulnerability to natural hazards and evaluating potential mitigation policy outcomes. The Land Use Portfolio Modeler (LUPM) integrates earth science and socioeconomic information to predict the economic impacts of loss-reduction strategies. However, the potential use of such systems in decision making may be limited when multiple but conflicting interpretations of the hazard are available. To explore this problem, we conduct a policy comparison using the LUPM to test the sensitivity of three available assessments of earthquake-induced lateral-spread ground failure susceptibility in a coastal California community. We find that the uncertainty regarding the interpretation of the science inputs can influence the development and implementation of natural hazard management policies. Copyright ?? 2006 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Manag↗

Science support for evaluating natural recovery of polychlorinated biphenyl concentrations in fish from Crab Orchard Lake, Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge, Illinois

Introduction Crab Orchard Lake in southern Illinois is one of the largest and most popular recreational lakes in the state. Construction of the nearly 7,000-acre reservoir in the late 1930s created employment opportunities through the Works Progress Administration, and the lake itself was intended to supply water, control flooding, and provide recreational opportunities for local communities (Stall, 1954). In 1942, the Department of War appropriated or purchased more than 20,000 acres of land around Crab Orchard Lake and constructed the Illinois Ordnance Plant, which manufactured bombs and anti-tank mines during World War II. After the war, an Act of Congress transferred the property to the U.S. Department of the Interior. Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge was established on August 5, 1947, for the joint purposes of wildlife conservation, agriculture, recreation, and industry. Production of explosives continued, but new industries also moved onsite. More than 200 tenants have held leases with Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge and have operated a variety of manufacturing plants (electrical components, plated metal parts, ink, machined parts, painted products, and boats) on-site. Soils, water, and sediments in several areas of the refuge were contaminated with hazardous substances from handling and disposal methods that are no longer acceptable environmental practice (for example, direct discharge to surface water, use of unlined landfills). Polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination at the refuge was identified in the 1970s, and a PCB-based fish-consumption advisory has been in effect since 1988 for Crab Orchard Lake. The present advisory covers common carp ( Cyprinus carpio ) and channel catfish ( Ictalurus punctatus ); see Illinois Department of Public Health (2017). Some of the most contaminated areas of the refuge were actively remediated, and natural ecosystem recovery processes are expected to further reduce residual PCB concentrations in the lake. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service sought technical support to understand environmental drivers of current (2017) PCB residues in fish tissue and patterns in PCB residues through time to inform the fish-consumption advisory for Crab Orchard Lake. This project is planned in two phases (Tasks 1 and 2); the first phase is included in this report. Task 1, reported here, includes a review of existing literature and a brief overview focused on environmental and biochemical/physiological processes that drive PCB residues in fish tissue. This review specifically targets processes that are relevant for freshwater lacustrine environments such as those at Crab Orchard Lake. In addition to discussions of environmental fate, metabolism, and accumulation of PCBs, this review includes a brief scientifically based explanation of approaches used to establish fish-consumption advisories. A planned second task (Task 2) will include a compilation and summary of existing data on PCB residues in fish tissue samples from Crab Orchard Lake. This summary will also place Crab Orchard Lake data in a broader geographic context through a comparison with fish data from other Midwestern lakes. When Task 1 and Task 2 are complete, resource managers will have (a) a synthesis of existing literature that characterizes the processes influencing the fate of residual PCBs remaining in systems such as Crab Orchard Lake, (b) a summary of natural PCB attenuation processes for use in risk communication with the public, and (c) a summary of existing data on PCBs in fish tissues from Crab Orchard Lake, including exploratory plots of tissue residues through time. Overall, this project will provide data to help resource managers better understand the ecological and public health consequences of residual PCBs in Crab Orchard Lake.

Illinois↗

Serious games experiment toward agent-based simulation

We evaluate the potential for serious games to be used as a scientifically based decision-support product that supports the United States Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission--to provide integrated, unbiased scientific information that can make a substantial contribution to societal well-being for a wide variety of complex environmental challenges. Serious or pedagogical games are an engaging way to educate decisionmakers and stakeholders about environmental challenges that are usefully informed by natural and social scientific information and knowledge and can be designed to promote interactive learning and exploration in the face of large uncertainties, divergent values, and complex situations. We developed two serious games that use challenging environmental-planning issues to demonstrate and investigate the potential contributions of serious games to inform regional-planning decisions. Delta Skelta is a game emulating long-term integrated environmental planning in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, that incorporates natural hazards (flooding and earthquakes) and consequences for California water supplies amidst conflicting water interests. Age of Ecology is a game that simulates interactions between economic and ecologic processes, as well as natural hazards while implementing agent-based modeling. The content of these games spans the USGS science mission areas related to water, ecosystems, natural hazards, land use, and climate change. We describe the games, reflect on design and informational aspects, and comment on their potential usefulness. During the process of developing these games, we identified various design trade-offs involving factual information, strategic thinking, game-winning criteria, elements of fun, number and type of players, time horizon, and uncertainty. We evaluate the two games in terms of accomplishments and limitations. Overall, we demonstrated the potential for these games to usefully represent scientific information within challenging environmental and ecosystem-management contexts and to provide an interactive way of learning about the complexity of interactions between people and natural systems. Further progress on the use of pedagogical games to fulfill the USGS mission will require collaboration among scientists, game developers, educators, and stakeholders. We conclude that as the USGS positions itself to communicate and convey the results of multiple science strategies, including natural-resource security and sustainability, pedagogical game development and agent-based modeling offer a means to (1) establish interdisciplinary and collaborative teams with a focused integrated outcome; (2) contribute to the modeling of interaction, feedback, and adaptation of ecosystems; and (3) enable social learning through a broadly appealing and increasingly sophisticated medium.

Open-File Report↗

Volcanic unrest and hazard communication in Long Valley Volcanic Region, California

The onset of volcanic unrest in Long Valley Caldera, California, in 1980 and the subsequent fluctuations in unrest levels through May 2016 illustrate: (1) the evolving relations between scientists monitoring the unrest and studying the underlying tectonic/magmatic processes and their implications for geologic hazards, and (2) the challenges in communicating the significance of the hazards to the public and civil authorities in a mountain resort setting. Circumstances special to this case include (1) the sensitivity of an isolated resort area to media hype of potential high-impact volcanic and earthquake hazards and its impact on potential recreational visitors and the local economy, (2) a small permanent population (~8000), which facilitates face-to-face communication between scientists monitoring the hazard, civil authorities, and the public, and (3) the relatively frequent turnover of people in positions of civil authority, which requires a continuing education effort on the nature of caldera unrest and related hazards. Because of delays associated with communication protocols between the State and Federal governments during the onset of unrest, local civil authorities and the public first learned that the U.S. Geological Survey was about to release a notice of potential volcanic hazards associated with earthquake activity and 25-cm uplift of the resurgent dome in the center of the caldera through an article in the Los Angeles Times published in May 1982. The immediate reaction was outrage and denial. Gradual acceptance that the hazard was real required over a decade of frequent meetings between scientists and civil authorities together with public presentations underscored by frequently felt earthquakes and the onset of magmatic CO 2 emissions in 1990 following a 11-month long earthquake swarm beneath Mammoth Mountain on the southwest rim of the caldera. Four fatalities, one on 24 May 1998 and three on 6 April 2006, underscored the hazard posed by the CO 2 emissions. Initial response plans developed by county and state agencies in response to the volcanic unrest began with “The Mono County Volcano Contingency Plan” and “Plan Caldera” by the California Office of Emergency Services in 1982–84. They subsequently became integrated in the regularly updated County Emergency Operation Plan. The alert level system employed by the USGS also evolved from the three-level “Notice-Watch-Warning” system of the early 1980s through a five level color-code to the current “Normal-Advisory-Watch-Warning” ground-based system in conjunction with the international 4-level aviation color-code for volcanic ash hazards. Field trips led by the scientists proved to be a particularly effective means of acquainting local residents and officials with the geologically active environment in which they reside. Relative caldera quiescence from 2000 through 2011 required continued efforts to remind an evolving population that the hazards posed by the 1980–2000 unrest persisted. Renewed uplift of the resurgent dome from 2011 to 2014 was accompanied by an increase in low-level earthquake activity in the caldera and beneath Mammoth Mountain and continues through May 2016. As unrest levels continue to wax and wane, so will the communication challenges.

Book chapter↗

Atlas of natural hazards in the Hawaiian coastal zone

The purpose of this report is to communicate to citizens and regulatory authorities the history and relative intensity of coastal hazards in Hawaii. This information is the key to the wise use and management of coastal resources. The information contained in this document,we hope,will improve the ability of Hawaiian citizens and visitors to safely enjoy the coast and provide a strong data set for planners and managers to guide the future of coastal resources. This work is largely based on previous investigations by scientific and engineering researchers and county, state, and federal offices and agencies. The unique aspect of this report is that, to the extent possible, it assimilates prior efforts in documenting Hawaiian coastal hazards and combines existing knowledge into a single comprehensive coastal hazard data set. This is by no means the final word on coastal hazards in Hawaii. Every hazardous phenomenon described here, and others such as slope failure and rocky shoreline collapse, need to be more carefully quantified, forecast, and mitigated. Our ultimate goal, of course, is to make the Hawaiian coast a safer place by educating the people of the state, and their leaders, about the hazardous nature of the environment. In so doing, we will also be taking steps toward improved preservation of coastal environments, because the best way to avoid coastal hazards is to avoid inappropriate development in the coastal zone. We have chosen maps as the medium for both recording and communicating the hazard history and its intensity along the Hawaiian coast.Two types of maps are used: 1) smallscale maps showing a general history of hazards on each island and summarizing coastal hazards in a readily understandable format for general use, and 2) a large-scale series of technical maps (1:50,000) depicting coastal sections approximately 5 to 7 miles in length with color bands along the coast ranking the relative intensity of each hazard at the adjacent shoreline.

Hawaii↗

Get your science used—Six guidelines to improve your products

Introduction Natural scientists, like many other experts, face challenges when communicating to people outside their fields of expertise. This is especially true when they try to communicate to those whose background, knowledge, and experience are far distant from that field of expertise. At a recent workshop, experts in risk communication offered insights into the communication challenges of probabilistic hazard products, suggested tips, and shared their strategies for making products that a targeted audience can understand and use. Although the workshop was held to broaden the understanding and use of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHM), the workshop outcomes presented in this report can benefit anyone who develops products based on technical information. On the basis of research and practice into how people think, use tools, make decisions, and understand scientific/technical information, the social and behavioral scientists, marketers, and social-impact designers at the NSHM workshop provided remarkably consistent guidelines to develop successful science products, such as text, maps, and other products. In this report the guidelines are numbered for clarity, but they can be applied repeatedly, piecemeal, or out of order to fit each project and your resources.

Circular↗

Level II scour analysis for Bridge 45b (BRIDTH00040045b) on Town Highway 4, crossing an unnamed Dailey Hollow Branch Tributary, Bridgewater, Vermont

This report provides the results of a detailed Level II analysis of scour potential at structure BRIDTH0004045B on town highway 4 crossing an unnamed Dailey Hollow Branch Tributary, Bridgewater, Vermont (figures 1–8). A Level II study is a basic engineering analysis of the site, including a quantitative analysis of stream stability and scour (U.S. Department of Transportation, 1993). Results of a Level I scour investigation also are included in Appendix E of this report. A Level I investigation provides a qualitative geomorphic characterization of the study site. Information on the bridge, gleaned from Vermont Agency of Transportation (VTAOT) files, was compiled prior to conducting Level I and Level II analyses and is found in Appendix D. The site is in the Green Mountain section of the New England physiographic province in central Vermont. The 2.47-mi 2 drainage area is in a predominantly rural and forested basin. Surface cover in the vicinity of the study site is variable. A gravel road is adjacent to the left bank with the immediate upstream left bank covered by grass and the immediate downstream left bank covered by shrubs and brush. The upstream right bank is densely forested; the downstream right overbank is covered by grass with trees and brush on the immediate channel bank. In the study area, this unnamed Dailey Hollow Branch Tributary has an incised channel with a slope of approximately 0.04 ft/ft, an average channel top width of 29 ft and an average channel depth of 4 ft. The predominant channel bed material is gravel with a median grain size (D 50 ) of 47.0 mm (0.154 ft). The geomorphic assessment at the time of the Level I and Level II site visit on November 15, 1994, indicated that the reach was stable. The town highway 4 crossing of the unnamed Dailey Hollow Branch Tributary is a 62-ft-long, corrugated steel multi-plate arch structure. It is supported by concrete footings leaving natural stream bed exposed (Vermont Agency of Transportation, written communication, January, 1996). The road embankments are protected by stone fill, however, the size is unknown due to sand and grass covering the fill except for the upstream left embankment which has type-2 stone fill (less than 36 inches diameter). The downstream left bank is protected by type-3 stone fill (less than 48 inches diameter) extending 25 feet downstream of the culvert. The channel approach to the culvert has a mild s-curve bend with the opening skewed ten degrees to flow. Additional details describing conditions at the site are included in the Level II Summary and Appendices D and E. Scour depths and rock rip-rap sizes were computed using the general guidelines described in Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18 (Richardson and others, 1993). Total scour at a highway crossing is comprised of three components: 1) long-term streambed degradation; 2) contraction scour (due to accelerated flow caused by a reduction in flow area at a bridge) and; 3) local scour (caused by accelerated flow around piers and abutments). Total scour is the sum of the three components. Equations are available to compute depths for contraction and local scour and a summary of the results of these computations follows. Contraction scour for all modelled flows ranged from 1.1 to 1.8 ft. The worst-case contraction scour occurred at the 500-year discharge. Abutment scour ranged from 7.7 to 11.7 ft. The worst-case abutment scour occurred at the 500-year discharge. Additional information on scour depths and depths to armoring are included in the section titled “Scour Results”. Scoured-streambed elevations, based on the calculated scour depths, are presented in tables 1 and 2. A cross-section of the scour computed at the bridge is presented in figure 8. Scour depths were calculated assuming an infinite depth of erosive material and a homogeneous particle-size distribution. It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1993, p. 48). Usually, computed scour depths are evaluated in combination with other information including (but not limited to) historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic stability assessment, existing scour protection measures, and the results of the hydraulic analyses. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein.

Vermont↗

Communication using eye roll reflective signalling

Body reflections in the ultraviolet (UV) are a common occurrence in nature. Despite the abundance of such signals and the presence of UV cones in the retinas of many vertebrates, the function of UV cones in the majority of taxa remains unclear. Here, we report on an unusual communication system in the razorback sucker, Xyrauchen texanus, that involves flash signals produced by quick eye rolls. Behavioural experiments and field observations indicate that this form of communication is used to signal territorial presence between males. The flash signal shows highest contrast in the UV region of fhe visual spectrum (??max???380 nm), corresponding to the maximum wavelength of absorption of the UV cone mechanism in suckers. Furthermore, these cones are restricted to the dorsal retina of the animal and the upwelling light background is such that their relative sensitivity would be enhanced by chromatic adaptation of the other cone mechanisms. Thus, the UV cones in the sucker have optimal characteristics (both in terms of absorbance and retinal topography) to constitute the main detectors of the flash signal. Our findings provide the first ecological evidence for restricted distribution of UV cones in the retina of a vertebrate. ?? 2007 The Royal Society.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗

Natural hazards and risk reduction in Hawaii

Significant progress has been made over the past century in understanding, characterizing, and communicating the societal risks posed by volcanic, earthquake, and tsunami hazards in Hawai‘i. The work of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), with a century-long commitment to serving the public with credible hazards information, contributed substantially to this global progress. Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., HVO’s founder, advocated that a scientific approach to understanding these hazards would result in strategies to mitigate their damaging effects. The resultant hazard-reduction methods range from prediction of eruptions and tsunamis, thereby providing early warnings for timely evacuation (if needed), to diversion of lava flows away from high-value infrastructure, such as hospitals. In addition to long-term volcano monitoring and multifaceted studies to better understand eruptive and seismic phenomena, HVO has continually and effectively communicated—through its publications, Web site, and public education/outreach programs—hazards information to emergency-management authorities, news media, and the public. Although HVO has been an important global player in advancing natural hazards studies during the past 100 years, it faces major challenges in the future, among which the following command special attention: (1) the preparation of an updated volcano hazards assessment and map for the Island of Hawai‘i, taking into account not only high-probability lava flow hazards, but also hazards posed by low-probability, high-risk events (for instance, pyroclastic flows, regional ashfalls, volcano flank collapse and associated megatsunamis), and (2) the continuation of timely and effective communications of hazards information to all stakeholders and the general public, using all available means (conventional print media, enhanced Web presence, public-education/outreach programs, and social-media approaches).

Hawaii↗

HAZPAC: An interactive map of Pacific Rim natural hazards, population, and infrastructure

This is an online version of a CD-ROM publication. The text files that describe using this publication make reference to software provided on the disc. For this online version the software can be downloaded for free from Adobe Systems and Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI). Welcome to HAZPAC! HAZPAC is an interactive map about natural hazard risk in the Pacific Rim region. It is intended to communicate to a broad audience the ideas of 'Crowding the Rim,' which is an international, public-private partnership that fosters collaborative solutions for regional risks. HAZPAC, which stands for 'HAZards of the PACific,' uses Geographic Information System (GIS) technology to help people visualize the socioeconomic connections and shared hazard vulnerabilities among Pacific Rim countries, as well as to explore the general nature of risk. Please refer to the 'INTRODUCTION TO HAZPAC' section of the readme file below to determine which HAZPAC project will be right for you. Once you have decided which HAZPAC project is suitable for you, please refer to the 'GETTING STARTED' sections in the readme file for some basic information that will help you begin using HAZPAC. Also, we highly recommend that you follow the Tutorial exercises in the project-specific HAZPAC User Guides. The User Guides are PDF (Portable Document Format) files that must be read with Adobe Acrobat Reader (a free copy of Acrobat Reader is available using the link near the bottom of this page).

Data Series↗

Communicating hazards—A social science review to meet U.S. Geological Survey needs

This report is for U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)—and any other—hazard scientists who want to improve the understanding and use of their scientific information, particularly by non-experts. In order for people to use science, they need to understand it. The highly technical, specialized nature of scientific information makes that difficult, particularly when few scientists are trained to communicate with people outside their fields. These issues are of special importance to the USGS because it has many users who are not scientists and because it develops and applies hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of our Nation. In 2010, the Science Application for Risk Reduction group at the USGS discovered the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) guide, “The Psychology of Climate Change Communication.” Ever since, a growing number of USGS staff who need to communicate about hazards have used that guide and have asked CRED for a companion report dedicated to hazard communication to harness knowledge from more than 50 years of social science research. In 2016, the USGS and CRED launched a collaboration to develop that companion report. Ultimately, a CRED hazard communication guide would be a Columbia University publication with a wide focus and would include many hazards that are outside the USGS purview. This report is a first step and concentrates strictly on hazard communication needs at the USGS. To identify those needs and tailor this effort to USGS hazard communication priorities, this collaboration began with telephone interviews and an online survey of USGS staff. This report is the result; it summarizes social science research and experience in the areas of hazard communication that USGS participants deemed most important to include.

Circular↗

ARkStorm@Tahoe: Stakeholder perspectives on vulnerabilities and preparedness for an extreme storm event in the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno, and Carson City region

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are strongly linked to extreme winter precipitation events in the Western U.S., accounting for 80 percent of extreme floods in the Sierra Nevada and surrounding lowlands. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ARkStorm extreme storm scenario for California to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to allow stakeholders to better explore and mitigate potential impacts. To explore impacts on natural resources and communities in montane and adjacent environments, we downscaled the scenario to the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno and Carson City region of northern Nevada and California. This ArkStorm@Tahoe scenario was presented at six stakeholder meetings, each with a different geographic and subject matter focus. Discussions were facilitated by the ARkStorm@Tahoe team to identify social and ecological vulnerabilities to extreme winter storms, science and information needs, and proactive measures that might minimize impacts from this type of event. Information collected in these meetings was used to develop a tabletop emergency response exercise and set of recommendations for increasing resilience to extreme winter storm events in both Tahoe and the downstream communities of Northern Nevada. Over 300 individuals participated in ARkStorm@Tahoe stakeholder meetings and the emergency response exercise, including representatives from emergency response, natural resource and ecosystem management, health and human services, public utilities, and businesses. Interruption of transportation, communications, and lack of power and backup fuel supplies were identified as the most likely and primary points of failure across multiple sectors and geographies, as these interruptions have cascading effects on natural and human systems by impeding emergency response efforts. Other key issues that arose in discussions included contamination risks to water supplies and aquatic ecosystems, especially in the Tahoe Basin and Pyramid Lake, interagency coordination, credentialing, flood management, and coordination of health and human services during such an event. Mitigation options were identified for each of the key issues. Several science needs were identified, particularly the need for improved flood inundation maps. Finally, key lessons learned were identified and may help to increase preparedness, response and recovery from extreme storms in the future.

Report↗

Geologic map and borehole stratigraphy of Hinkley Valley and vicinity, San Bernardino County, California

Hinkley Valley, in the central to western Mojave Desert of southeastern California, has a long historical record owing to its position as a crossroads for rail and road traffic and its position adjacent to the Mojave River. Subflow in the Mojave River provided groundwater recharge that maintained water consumption and demand by way of shallow wells for local agriculture in the valley. Its crossroads position led to construction of several power-transmission lines, pipeline, and communications cable routes that transect Hinkley Valley. One of these, a natural gas pipeline and its associated compressor station, was the locus of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), released into, and consequent contamination of, groundwater. Understanding the movement and fate of the contaminants is a complex hydrologic and geochemical problem. Geologic mapping of the Hinkley Valley area provides framework elements for use in resolving this problem. This report provides new information on surface and subsurface geology to better constrain the origin and geometry of hydrologically important deposits in the Hinkley Valley area and describes youthful faults that may control sediment distribution and groundwater flow. The geologic map (sheet 1) presents substantial new information on surficial geology, including Pliocene deposits, but does not contain significant new work on bedrock. Bedrock investigations were specific to identifying youthful faults and representative outcrops for rocks that were penetrated by boreholes in the valley. Special attention was placed on locating and describing youthful faults. In addition, we analyzed gravity data to (1) map horizontal gradients that we interpret to reflect long-term fault traces and to (2) estimate the depth to bedrock, which is defined as Miocene and older intrusive and metamorphic rocks for the purposes of this report. The subsurface geology of Hinkley Valley was investigated by examining borehole sediment cores and rock encountered at the base of the sediment section. We analyzed the core to determine depositional environments, provenance, and age of the sediment that infilled the valley. Valleys, mountains, and basins in the Hinkley Valley area are topographically complex and incompletely named. The nearly flat floored Hinkley Valley slopes gently northward. It is framed by Mount General and the informally named “Hinkley hills” (southeast of Mount General) on the northeast and by Iron Mountain and Lynx Cat Mountain on the southwest, although breaks in the western mountains allow stream connections between Hinkley Valley and another valley to the west that is herein referred to as Hawes valley. At its south end, Hinkley Valley is traversed by the entrenched Mojave River, which passes east out of the valley past Barstow. North of Hinkley Valley, a few low hills (including Red Hill) separate the valley from a broad west-sloping piedmont that is part of the physiographic Harper Basin (of which the Harper Lake playa is the center). The lower part of this piedmont, however, is referred to as Water Valley, although it is not a distinct valley. The name derives from groundwater sourced from subflow in the Mojave River, which caused shallow water and even artesian flow in Water Valley but not in other parts of the Harper Basin. When water filled the Harper Basin to form Pleistocene Lake Harper it not only submerged Water Valley but also northern Hinkley Valley.

California↗

Assessing conservation and management actions with ecosystem services better communicates conservation value to the public

Fish and wildlife populations are under unprecedented threats from changes in land use and climate. With increasing threats comes a need for an expanded constituency that can contribute to the public support and financial capital needed for habitat conservation and management. Using an ecosystem services approach can provide a framework for a more holistic accounting of conservation benefits. Our objective here is to provide a greater understanding of the role that taking an ecosystem services approach can have in expanding the public constituency that supports the use of financial capital required to conserve and manage the nation’s natural capital. To demonstrate a methodology and the usefulness of taking an ecosystem services approach when communicating the value of conserving and managing fish and wildlife habitats, we performed an evaluation of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service-owned Waterfowl Production Areas, National Wildlife Refuges, and easement lands (both wetland and grassland) in Stutsman County, North Dakota. We quantified amphibian habitat, grassland bird habitat, floral resources for pollinators, and carbon storage services under various scenarios of conservation. While we did not include all possible ecosystem services in our model, our case study shows how this process can provide a more complete picture of the collateral benefits of conservation directed primarily toward waterfowl. Using this ecosystem services approach, we documented marked losses in all services modeled if current conservation lands were developed for the production of agricultural crops. By having access to a more complete picture of benefits provided by conservation lands, decision makers can better communicate their value. By garnering greater public support through a more accurate accounting of societal benefits, conservation and management of dwindling natural capital may someday attain the same level of thought and consideration that is put into the conservation and management of the nation’s financial capital.

North Dakota↗

Managing the effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals in wastewater-impacted streams

A revolution in analytical instrumentation circa 1920 greatly improved the ability to characterize chemical substances. This analytical foundation resulted in an unprecedented explosion in the design and production of synthetic chemicals during and post-World War II. What is now often referred to as the 2nd Chemical Revolution has provided substantial societal benefits; with modern chemical design and manufacturing supporting dramatic advances in medicine, increased food production, and expanding gross domestic products at the national and global scales as well as improved health, longevity, and lifestyle convenience at the individual scale. Presently, the chemical industry is the largest manufacturing sector in the United States (U.S.) and the second largest in Europe and Japan, representing approximately 5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in each of these countries. At the turn of the 21st century, the chemical industry was estimated to be worth more than $1.6 trillion and to employ over 10 million people, globally. During the first half of the 20th century, the chemical sector expanded rapidly, the chemical industry enjoyed a generally positive status in society, and chemicals were widely appreciated as fundamental to individual and societal quality of life. Starting in the 1960s, however, the environmental costs associated with the chemical industry increasingly became the focus, due in part to the impact of books like “Silent Spring” and “Our Stolen Future” and to a number of highly publicized environmental disasters. Galvanizing chemical industry disasters included the 1976 dioxin leak north of Milan, Italy, the Love Canal evacuations in Niagara, New York beginning in 1978, and the Union Carbide leak in Bhopal, India in 1984. Understanding the environmental impact of synthetic compounds is essential to any informed assessment of net societal benefit, for the simple reason that any chemical substance that is in commercial production or use will eventually find its way to the environment. Not surprisingly given the direct link to profits, manufacturers intensely investigate and routinely document the potential benefits of new chemicals and chemical products. In contrast, the environmental risks associated with chemical production and uses are often investigated less intensely and are poorly communicated. An imbalance in the risk-benefit analysis of any synthetic chemical substance or naturally occurring chemical, which presence and concentration in the environment largely reflects human activities and management, is a particular concern owing to the fundamental link between chemistry and biology. Biological organisms are intrinsically a homeostatic balance of innumerable internal and external chemical interactions and, thus, inherently sensitive to changes in the external chemical environment.

Book chapter↗