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At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Social-ecological resilience and law in the Platte River Basin

Efficiency and resistance to rapid change are hallmarks of both the judicial and legislative branches of the United States government. These defining characteristics, while bringing stability and predictability, pose challenges when it comes to managing dynamic natural systems. As our understanding of ecosystems improves, we must devise ways to account for the non-linearities and uncertainties rife in complex social-ecological systems. This paper takes an in-depth look at the Platte River basin over time to explore how the system's resilience—the capacity to absorb disturbance without losing defining structures and functions—responds to human driven change. Beginning with pre-European settlement, the paper explores how water laws, policies, and infrastructure influenced the region's ecology and society. While much of the post-European development in the Platte River basin came at a high ecological cost to the system, the recent tri-state and federal collaborative Platte River Recovery and Implementation Program is a first step towards flexible and adaptive management of the social-ecological system. Using the Platte River basin as an example, we make the case that inherent flexibility and adaptability are vital for the next iteration of natural resources management policies affecting stressed basins. We argue that this can be accomplished by nesting policy in a resilience framework, which we describe and attempt to operationalize for use across systems and at different levels of jurisdiction. As our current natural resources policies fail under the weight of looming global change, unprecedented demand for natural resources, and shifting land use, the need for a new generation of adaptive, flexible natural resources govern-ance emerges. Here we offer a prescription for just that, rooted in the social , ecological and political realities of the Platte River basin. Social-Ecological Resilience and Law in the Platte River Basin (PDF Download Available) . Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273678974_Social-Ecological_Resilience_and_Law_in_the_Platte_River_Basin [accessed Oct 18 2017].

Idaho Law Review↗
USGS2021

A common garden super-experiment: An impossible dream to inspire possible synthesis

Global change threatens plant diversity and disrupts its interrelationship with ecosystem structure and function. This disruption in turn undermines confidence in the knowledge ecologists produce, and whether it will translate into multidisciplinary research settings or guide the effective management of natural lands. To address this challenge, ecology needs to consider the interactions between different levels of biological hierarchy, especially how they feedback on, and are mediated by, plant diversity. Doing so will require conducting empirical work and developing theory that simultaneously considers multiple disciplinary perspectives and units of study. Here we advocate the use of common gardens to integrate ecology, evolutionary biology, and ecosystem science through an explicit focus on simultaneous measurement of response variables at multiple levels of biological organization. This approach will provide opportunities to evaluate assumptions important to prediction, such as space-for-time substitution, and tackle the integration of physicochemical and eco-evolutionary foundations to understanding plants and ecosystems. Synthesis: We summarize the large body of research on Sonoran Desert winter annuals to demonstrate how experimental designs that employ common gardens to integrate processes across scales hold special promise. This includes refining trait-based theories of plant strategies, providing insight into ecosystem responses to global change, and collaborating effectively with other scientific disciplines.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2026

Probabilistic forecasting of coastal wetland elevation and soil carbon response to sea-level rise

Tidal wetlands build soil as a dynamic response to inundation, resulting in carbon sequestration and resilience to sea-level rise. Process models can be used to make site-specific forecasts, anticipate future changes, and plan management responses. But to be actionable, forecasts from these models need to be accompanied by descriptions of their confidence. In this study, we demonstrate the application of ecological forecasting principles to the unique case of tidal wetland vulnerability and carbon storage, given accelerating and uncertain sea-level rise. We present a case study using the Cohort Marsh Equilibrium Model at the Global Change Research Wetland in Maryland, USA. We used meta-analyses to quantify lab- and sample-level measurement uncertainties for common soil measurements and to develop Bayesian model priors. Reanalysis of previous literature supported predictive relationships between belowground turnover and mean annual temperature, as well as between soil erodibility and suspended sediment concentration that could be transferable to other locations. The model forecasted a likely conversion of low-elevation marsh to open water by the 2060s, accompanied by a decrease in marsh carbon storage capacity. Forecasted uncertainty in elevation was dominated by structural uncertainty in the model, while carbon accumulation rates were more influenced by parameter uncertainty. After 2050, and increasingly as the forecast approached 2100, uncertainty in sea-level rise projections contributed to uncertainty in both forecasts. Forecasts were most sensitive to processes related to organic matter preservation, plant productivity (maximum aboveground biomass and belowground turnover), and organic soil packing density. The soil formed was an organic-rich peat (>70% organic matter according to the data), and model predictions were insensitive to parameters associated with mineral sedimentation. We identify additional field data collection, such as on decomposition trajectories and plant productivity, and data-model coupling of near-term elevation records as the most impactful strategies for reducing uncertainties in future forecasting efforts. Future work can build on this forecasting framework in other locations, using it for adaptive management, identifying appropriate interventions to mitigate wetland loss, and projecting future carbon removal capacity in response to accelerated sea-level rise.

Maryland↗
USGS2020

Introduction: Ecological subsidies as a framework for understanding contaminant fate, exposure, and effects at the land-water interface

Ecologists have long recognized that ecological subsidies (the flow of organic matter, nutrients, and organisms between ecosystems) can strongly affect ecosystem processes and community structure in the recipient ecosystem. Animal movements, organic matter flows, and food web dynamics between linked aquatic and terrestrial systems can also influence contaminant fate, exposure, and effects at the land-water interface. Here and in this book, we develop a broad framework that highlights two important ways that ecological subsidies and contaminants interact. Ecological subsidies from the donor system can drive exposure to recipient systems, and contaminant exposures in the donor system can control subsidies and contaminant fluxes to the recipient systems. In the case of prey movement between ecosystems, subsidies drive exposure when contaminants present in aquatic environments bioaccumulate in the tissues of prey organisms at levels that are relatively non-toxic to the prey themselves. Conversely, exposure in the aquatic system can limit subsidies when pollutants are relatively toxic to prey organisms themselves and the magnitude of the subsidy (i.e., biomass of aquatic insects emerging to the terrestrial environment) is reduced. These effects of contaminants on subsidies are shaped by other global stressors that are ubiquitous in aquatic-riparian ecosystems (e.g., climate and land use change, species extinction and invasion, and eutrophication). As our understanding of these ecological and toxicological processes advances, there are increasing opportunities to make landscape-scale predictions of contaminant and animal fluxes and to integrate this knowledge of aquatic-riparian linkages into managing contaminant risks. Through these efforts to integrate the fields of ecology and ecotoxicology on this subject, we expect to gain greater insight on the ecological effects of contaminants on linked ecosystems as well as the ways in which food web dynamics and ecosystem processes can themselves govern the fate, transport, and exposure to contaminants in the environment.

Book chapter↗
USGS2016

A global review of freshwater crayfish temperature tolerance, preference, and optimal growth

Conservation efforts, environmental planning, and management must account for ongoing ecosystem alteration due to a changing climate, introduced species, and shifting land use. This type of management can be facilitated by an understanding of the thermal ecology of aquatic organisms. However, information on thermal ecology for entire taxonomic groups is rarely compiled or summarized, and reviews of the science can facilitate its advancement. Crayfish are one of the most globally threatened taxa, and ongoing declines and extirpation could have serious consequences on aquatic ecosystem function due to their significant biomass and ecosystem roles. Our goal was to review the literature on thermal ecology for freshwater crayfish worldwide, with emphasis on studies that estimated temperature tolerance, temperature preference, or optimal growth. We also explored relationships between temperature metrics and species distributions. We located 56 studies containing information for at least one of those three metrics, which covered approximately 6 % of extant crayfish species worldwide. Information on one or more metrics existed for all 3 genera of Astacidae, 4 of the 12 genera of Cambaridae, and 3 of the 15 genera of Parastacidae. Investigations employed numerous methodological approaches for estimating these parameters, which restricts comparisons among and within species. The only statistically significant relationship we observed between a temperature metric and species range was a negative linear relationship between absolute latitude and optimal growth temperature. We recommend expansion of studies examining the thermal ecology of freshwater crayfish and identify and discuss methodological approaches that can improve standardization and comparability among studies.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗
USGS2022

Restoration for resilience: The role of plant-microbial interactions and seed provenance in ecological restoration

With global efforts to restore grassland ecosystems, researchers and land management practitioners are working to reconstruct habitat that will persist and withstand stresses associated with climate change. Part of these efforts involve movement of plant material potentially adapted to future climate conditions from native habitat or seed production locations to a new restoration site. Restoration practice often follows this plant-centered, top-down approach. However, we suggest that restoration of belowground interactions, namely between plants and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi or rhizobia, is important for restoring resilient grasslands. In this synthesis we highlight these interactions and offer insight into how their restoration might be included in current grassland restoration practice. Ultimately, restoration of belowground interactions may contribute to grassland habitat that can withstand and respond to future climate uncertainties.

Natural Areas Journal↗
USGS2017

Developing multi-model ensemble projections of ecologically relevant climate variables for Puerto Rico and the US Caribbean

The global increases in surface air temperature are the most widespread and direct consequence of anthropogenic climate change. However, while 21st century temperatures are projected to increase in the Caribbean, the low variability and high average temperatures suggest that impacts on ecosystems and water resources are more likely through changes to the availability, timing, and pattern of moisture. The lack of local-scale climate model information that can resolve the complex topography and small scale climate features hinders the development of robust adaptation strategies. The goal of this project was to develop a suite of local-scale climate projections using dynamic downscaling to aid the development of adaptation strategies in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). This project began by engaging the ecologists, hydrologists, and conservation biologists in the region to determine the most valuable types of information to aid research and decision making. The final product provides projections of future climate at a 2km horizontal resolution based on three global climate models and two regional climate models for a scenario with high greenhouse gas emissions. Results from the projections suggest that for Puerto Rico, annual temperature would increase between 1°C and 1.3°C by mid-century with larger temperature increases located in the interior portion of the island. Precipitation totals decrease for much of the island with island average decline between 12% and 19%, with some potentially large localized decreases exceeding 30%. The projected changes for the USVI are dominated by the surrounding ocean environment. The resulting projections will be provided to stakeholders in the region via the USGS and the CLCC.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2016

Landscape composition creates a threshold influencing Lesser Prairie-Chicken population resilience to extreme drought

Habitat loss and degradation compound the effects of climate change on wildlife, yet responses to climate and land cover change are often quantified independently. The interaction between climate and land cover change could be intensified in the Great Plains region where grasslands are being converted to row-crop agriculture concurrent with increased frequency of extreme drought events. We quantified the combined effects of land cover and climate change on a species of conservation concern in the Great Plains, the Lesser Prairie-Chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ). We combined extreme drought events and land cover change with lek count surveys in a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify changes in abundance of male Lesser Prairie-Chickens from 1978 to 2014 in Kansas, the core of their species range. Our estimates of abundance indicate a gradually decreasing population through 2010 corresponding to drought events and reduced grassland areas. Decreases in Lesser Prairie-Chicken abundance were greatest in areas with increasing row-crop to grassland land cover ratio during extreme drought events, and decreased grassland reduces the resilience of Lesser Prairie-Chicken populations to extreme drought events. A threshold exists for Lesser Prairie-Chickens in response to the gradient of cropland:grassland land cover. When moving across the gradient of grassland to cropland, abundance initially increased in response to more cropland on the landscape, but declined in response to more cropland after the threshold ( δ=0.096 , or 9.6% cropland). Preservation of intact grasslands and continued implementation of initiatives to revert cropland to grassland should increase Lesser Prairie-Chicken resilience to extreme drought events due to climate change.

Kansas↗
USGS2008

Arctic climate change and its impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic

Arctic climate change from the Paleocene epoch to the present is reconstructed with the objective of assessing its recent and future impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic. A recurring theme in Earth's paleoclimate record is the importance of the Arctic atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere in regulating global climate on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A second recurring theme in this record is the importance of freshwater export from the Arctic in regulating global- to basin-scale ocean circulation patterns and climate. Since the 1970s, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. In addition, modal shifts in the atmosphere have altered Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and the export of freshwater into the North Atlantic. The combination of these processes has resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean and the emergence of salinity anomalies that have periodically freshened waters in the North Atlantic. Since the early 1990s, changes in Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and freshwater export have been associated with two types of ecological responses in the North Atlantic. The first of these responses has been an ongoing series of biogeographic range expansions by boreal plankton, including renewal of the trans-Arctic exchanges of Pacific species with the Atlantic. The second response was a dramatic regime shift in the shelf ecosystems of the Northwest Atlantic that occurred during the early 1990s. This regime shift resulted from freshening and stratification of the shelf waters, which in turn could be linked to changes in the abundances and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher trophic-level consumer populations. It is predicted that the recently observed ecological responses to Arctic climate change in the North Atlantic will continue into the near future if current trends in sea ice, freshwater export, and surface ocean salinity continue. It is more difficult to predict ecological responses to abrupt climate change in the more distant future as tipping points in the Earth's climate system are exceeded.

Ecology↗
USGS2014

Parameter optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of an ecosystem model at a forest flux tower site in the United States

Ecosystem models are useful tools for understanding ecological processes and for sustainable management of resources. In biogeochemical field, numerical models have been widely used for investigating carbon dynamics under global changes from site to regional and global scales. However, it is still challenging to optimize parameters and estimate parameterization uncertainty for complex process-based models such as the Erosion Deposition Carbon Model (EDCM), a modified version of CENTURY, that consider carbon, water, and nutrient cycles of ecosystems. This study was designed to conduct the parameter identifiability, optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of EDCM using our developed EDCM-Auto, which incorporated a comprehensive R package—Flexible Modeling Framework (FME) and the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm. Using a forest flux tower site as a case study, we implemented a comprehensive modeling analysis involving nine parameters and four target variables (carbon and water fluxes) with their corresponding measurements based on the eddy covariance technique. The local sensitivity analysis shows that the plant production-related parameters (e.g., PPDF1 and PRDX) are most sensitive to the model cost function. Both SCE and FME are comparable and performed well in deriving the optimal parameter set with satisfactory simulations of target variables. Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicate that the parameter uncertainty and the resulting output uncertainty can be quantified, and that the magnitude of parameter-uncertainty effects depends on variables and seasons. This study also demonstrates that using the cutting-edge R functions such as FME can be feasible and attractive for conducting comprehensive parameter analysis for ecosystem modeling.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2016

Panarchy use in environmental science for risk and resilience planning

Environmental sciences have an important role in informing sustainable management of built environments by providing insights about the drivers and potentially negative impacts of global environmental change. Here, we discuss panarchy theory, a multi-scale hierarchical concept that accounts for the dynamism of complex socio-ecological systems, especially for those systems with strong cross-scale feedbacks. The idea of panarchy underlies much of system resilience, focusing on how systems respond to known and unknown threats. Panarchy theory can provide a framework for qualitative and quantitative research and application in the environmental sciences, which can in turn inform the ongoing efforts in socio-technical resilience thinking and adaptive and transformative approaches to management.

Environment Systems and Decisions↗
USGS2011

Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change

Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts of our findings. Overall, we hope to stimulate and guide future research that links changes in water availability to patterns of species interactions and the dynamics of populations and communities in dryland ecosystems.

Biological Reviews↗
USGS2002

Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

RINHewS: Newsletter of the Rhode Island Natural Hi↗
USGS2025

Establishing historical baselines of arthropod assemblages using rodent paleomiddens

Aim Arthropods are under-represented in paleoecological studies but are critical agents in ecological processes. Despite rigorous documentation of diverse arthropod assemblages from ancient rodent (or paleo) middens worldwide, their use for studying ancient arthropod diversity has stalled in recent decades. Here, we review published studies to identify how paleomidden arthropods can be leveraged to address significant questions in ecology and synthesise spatiotemporal trends in ancient arthropod diversity. Location Global with a focus on the Americas. Time Period From ~40,000 to 100 years before present. Major Taxa Studied Fossil arthropods preserved in rodent paleomiddens. Methods We identified four primary objectives in ecology that can be advanced using paleomidden arthropod fossils: the reconstruction of ancient biodiversity, the elucidation of mechanisms and processes driving arthropod range shifts, the incorporation of arthropods into ancient trophic webs, and the assessment of adaptive responses to changing environments. Results We identified 20 papers reporting arthropod remains, of which 14 provided data suitable for quantitative analyses. Although no significant differences in arthropod community diversity were found across broad geographic regions, substantial differences in community structure were observed. In North America, we also detected a decline in arthropod diversity from 10 to 5 ka BP, driven primarily by the absence of high-diversity assemblages during this period. Main Conclusions Paleomidden arthropods remain an underutilised ecological resource that can be leveraged to improve the inferential scope of arthropod research across spatiotemporal gradients. Collaboration between paleo- and neoecologists could help expand the sampling of ancient and modern arthropod communities, particularly those associated with paleomiddens, to create high-resolution datasets spanning important periods in biogeographical history. Paleomidden arthropods will remain a fundamental component for understanding arthropod biodiversity changes in the past, present, and future.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗
USGS1993

Integration of environmental simulation models with satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies: case studies

Environmental modelers are testing and evaluating a prototype land cover characteristics database for the conterminous United States developed by the EROS Data Center of the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Nebraska Center for Advanced Land Management Information Technologies. This database was developed from multi temporal, 1-kilometer advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for 1990 and various ancillary data sets such as elevation, ecological regions, and selected climatic normals. Several case studies using this database were analyzed to illustrate the integration of satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies with land-atmosphere interactions models at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The case studies are representative of contemporary environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management, and environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management and environmental risk assessment. The case studies feature land surface parameterizations for atmospheric mesoscale and global climate models; biogenic-hydrocarbons emissions models; distributed parameter watershed and other hydrological models; and various ecological models such as ecosystem, dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, ecotone variability, and equilibrium vegetation models. The case studies demonstrate the important of multi temporal AVHRR data to develop to develop and maintain a flexible, near-realtime land cover characteristics database. Moreover, such a flexible database is needed to derive various vegetation classification schemes, to aggregate data for nested models, to develop remote sensing algorithms, and to provide data on dynamic landscape characteristics. The case studies illustrate how such a database supports research on spatial heterogeneity, land use, sensitivity analysis, and scaling issues involving regional extrapolations and parameterizations of dynamic land processes within simulation models.

Pecora 12 Symposium↗
USGS2012

Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.

Missouri River↗
USGS1993

Using multisource data in global land-cover characterization: concepts, requirements, and methods

Global land-cover data are needed as baseline information for global change research. Multisource data, both coarse resolution satellite data and ancillary data, were used to produce a land-cover characteristics database for the conterqinous United States. Ancillary data, including elevation and ecological region data sets, were critical to the development, refinement, and information content of each class in the database. They contributed essential evidence for labeling and refining land-cover classes where differing types were represented by single spectral-temporal signatures. The characterization process can be expanded to a global effort depending on (1) the availability of global satellite coverage, (2) the quality and availability of ancillary data, and (3) the evolution of more sophisticated data visualization and analysis techniques.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗
USGS2022

Wildfire influences individual growth and breeding dispersal, but not survival and recruitment in a montane amphibian

Global wildfire regimes are changing rapidly, with widespread increases in the size, frequency, duration, and severity of wildfires. Whereas the effects of wildfire on ecological state variables such as occupancy, abundance, and species diversity are relatively well documented, changes in population vital rates (e.g., survival, recruitment) and individual responses (e.g., growth, movement) to wildfire are more limited because of the detailed information needed on the same individuals both pre- and post-fire. We capitalized on the 2018 Roosevelt wildfire, which occurred during our 6-year (2015–2020) capture–mark–recapture study of boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ; n = 1415) in the Bridger-Teton National Forest, USA, to evaluate the responses of population vital rates and individual metrics to wildfire. We employed robust design capture–recapture models to compare the growth, dispersal, survival, and recruitment of adult boreal toads pre- and post-fire at burned versus unburned sites. At burned locations, growth increased 2 years post-fire compared with the year directly following wildfire and was higher 2 years post-fire than any other interval during our study period. Boreal toads dispersed to alternative breeding patches more at burned sites than unburned sites and dispersal increased 2 years post-fire compared with the year directly following wildfire. Annual survival and recruitment neither differed between pre- and post-fire years nor among pre-fire years, the year following wildfire, and 2 years post-fire. We demonstrate that, in certain contexts, dispersal can play a major role in changes to state variables (e.g., abundance) after wildfire, as opposed to other vital rates such as survival and recruitment. Our study represents an important step toward understanding the biological processes that underlie observed patterns in state variables following wildfire, which ultimately will be critical for the effective management of species in landscapes experiencing shifts in fire activity.

Wyoming↗