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At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources

Hurricane Sandy science plan: coastal topographic and bathymetric data to support hurricane impact assessment and response

Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: • Coastal topography and bathymetry • Impacts to coastal beaches and barriers • Impacts of storm surge, including disturbed estuarine and bay hydrology • Impacts on environmental quality and persisting contaminant exposures • Impacts to coastal ecosystems, habitats, and fish and wildlife This fact sheet focuses on coastal topography and bathymetry. This fact sheet focuses on coastal topography and bathymetry.

Gulf Coast region

Application of lidar to assess the habitat selection of an endangered small mammal in an estuarine wetland environment

Light detection and ranging (lidar) has emerged as a valuable tool for examining the fine-scale characteristics of vegetation. However, lidar is rarely used to examine coastal wetland vegetation or the habitat selection of small mammals. Extensive anthropogenic modification has threatened the endemic species in the estuarine wetlands of the California coast, such as the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse ( Reithrodontomys raviventris ; SMHM). A better understanding of SMHM habitat selection could help managers better protect this species. We assessed the ability of airborne topographic lidar imagery in measuring the vegetation structure of SMHM habitats in a coastal wetland with a narrow range of vegetation heights. We also aimed to better understand the role of vegetation structure in habitat selection at different spatial scales. Habitat selection was modeled from data compiled from 15 small mammal trapping grids collected in the highly urbanized San Francisco Estuary in California, USA. Analyses were conducted at three spatial scales: microhabitat (25 m 2 ), mesohabitat (2025 m 2 ), and macrohabitat (~10,000 m 2 ). A suite of structural covariates was derived from raw lidar data to examine vegetation complexity. We found that adding structural covariates to conventional habitat selection variables significantly improved our models. At the microhabitat scale in managed wetlands, SMHM preferred areas with denser and shorter vegetation and selected for proximity to levees and taller vegetation in tidal wetlands. At the mesohabitat scale, SMHM were associated with a lower percentage of bare ground and with pickleweed ( Salicornia pacifica ) presence. All covariates were insignificant at the macrohabitat scale. Our results suggest that SMHM preferentially selected microhabitats with access to tidal refugia and mesohabitats with consistent food sources. Our findings showed that lidar can contribute to improving our understanding of habitat selection of wildlife in coastal wetlands and help to guide future conservation of an endangered species.

Ecology and Evolution

Spatial configuration trends in coastal Louisiana from 1985 to 2010

From 1932 to 2010, coastal Louisiana has experienced a net loss of 4877 km 2 of wetlands. As the area of these wetlands has changed, so too has the spatial configuration of the landscape. The resulting landscape is a mosaic of patches of wetlands and open water. This study examined the spatial and temporal variability of trajectories of landscape configuration and the relation of those patterns to the trajectories of land change in wetlands during a 1985–2010 observation period. Spatial configuration was quantified using multi-temporal satellite imagery and an aggregation index (AI). The results of this analysis indicate that coastal Louisiana experienced a reduction in the AI of coastal wetlands of 1.07 %. In general, forested wetland and fresh marsh types displayed the highest aggregation and stability. The remaining marsh types, (intermediate, brackish, and saline) all experienced disaggregation during the time period, with increasing severity of disaggregation along an increasing salinity gradient. Finally, a correlation ( r 2  = 0.5562) was found between AI and the land change rate for the subsequent period, indicating that fragmentation can increase the vulnerability of wetlands to further wetland loss. These results can help identify coastal areas which are susceptible to future wetland loss.

Louisiana

Refocusing Mussel Watch on contaminants of emerging concern (CECs): the California pilot study (2009-10)

To expand the utility of the Mussel Watch Program, local, regional and state agencies in California partnered with NOAA to design a pilot study that targeted contaminants of emerging concern (CECs). Native mussels ( Mytilus spp.) from 68 stations, stratified by land use and discharge scenario, were collected in 2009–10 and analyzed for 167 individual pharmaceuticals, industrial and commercial chemicals and current use pesticides. Passive sampling devices (PSDs) and caged Mytilus were co-deployed to expand the list of CECs, and to assess the ability of PSDs to mimic bioaccumulation by Mytilus . A performance-based quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC) approach was developed to ensure a high degree of data quality, consistency and comparability. Data management and analysis were streamlined and standardized using automated software tools. This pioneering study will help shape future monitoring efforts in California’s coastal ecosystems, while serving as a model for monitoring CECs within the region and across the nation.

California

Re-evaluating Marine Isotope Stage 5a paleo-sea-level trends from across the Florida Keys reef tract

Unraveling how Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) fluctuated during past warm periods can improve our understanding of linkages between sea-level fluctuations, orbital forcing, and ice-sheet dynamics. Current estimates of GMSL for Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5a and 5c — two warm intervals following the relatively well-documented MIS 5e — contain meters of uncertainty and fewer data due to several challenges. These challenges include concealment of datable in-situ coral facies by MIS 1 deposits and inaccessibility due to submergence by modern sea level. We present a comprehensive dataset based on U–Th dating and stratigraphic correlation of 23 cores totaling over 170 m of recovered coral-reef deposits across the tectonically stable Florida Keys Reef Tract (FKRT). Following detailed facies descriptions, 34 in-situ, minimally altered aragonitic coral samples (≤2.7% calcite) below the Holocene-Pleistocene boundary were targeted for U–Th geochronology. Fourteen closed-system coral U–Th ages from MIS 5a include the commonly used sea-level indicator Acropora palmata , but also the massive coral taxa Pseudodiploria strigosa, Siderastrea siderea, Orbicella spp., and Porites astreoides . Dating yielded ages in the range of 88–81 ka (average 2σ uncertainty of less than 200 years). These ages suggest MIS 5a reef initiation at ∼88 ka BP, a peak near 83 ka with minimum elevations between −6.0 ± 0.5 and −5.6 ± 0.5 m MSL (2σ uncertainty and subsidence-corrected), and reef termination and sea-level fall by ∼81 ka BP. Notably, the range of peak MIS 5a relative sea-level estimates of −6.5 to −5.1 m MSL are more than 2 m shallower (higher) than previous estimates of −11 to −9 m. Our higher resolution regional sea-level reconstruction across four subregions of the Florida Keys reef tract aligns with changes in July insolation at 65° N: a trend that most other records, such as deep-sea sediments, do not have the accuracy and precision to resolve. Three massive coral samples from MIS 5c, consisting of Pseudodiploria clivosa , and Orbicella spp., yielded ages in the range of 104 to 99 ka (average 2σ uncertainty less than 200 years); however, because only one sample met the closed-system criteria, our ability to estimate MIS 5c sea level is relatively limited. More empirical estimates of sea-level from the MIS 5a and MIS 5c intervals based on numerical dating of reliable local sea-level constraints are critical for GMSL calculations and relating changes in sea-level amplitude and timing to global ice volume modeling and glacio-isostatic effects, all of which can improve predictions of future sea-level changes in coastal regions.

Florida

Holocene relative sea-level change along the tectonically active Chilean coast

We present a comprehensive relative sea-level (RSL) database for north, central, and south-central Chile (18.5°S – 43.6°S) using a consistent, systematic, and internationally comparable approach. Despite its latitudinal extent, this coastline has received little rigorous or systematic attention and details of its RSL history remain largely unexplored. To address this knowledge gap, we re-evaluate the geological context and age of previously published sea-level indicators, providing 78 index points and 84 marine or terrestrial limiting points spanning from 11 ka to the present day. Many data points were originally collected for research in other fields and have not previously been examined for the information they provide on sea-level change. Additionally, we describe new sea-level data from four sites located between the Gulf of Arauco and Valdivia. By compiling RSL histories for 11 different regions, we summarise current knowledge of Chilean RSL. These histories indicate mid Holocene sea levels above present in all regions, but at highly contrasting elevations from ∼30 m to <5 m. We compare the spatiotemporal distribution of sea-level data points with a suite of glacial isostatic adjustment models and place first-order constraints on the influence of tectonic processes over 10 3 –10 4 year timescales. While seven regions indicate uplift rates <1 m ka −1 , the remaining regions may experience substantially higher rates. In addition to enabling discussion of the factors driving sea-level change, our compilation provides a resource to assist attempts to understand the distribution of archaeological, palaeoclimatic, and palaeoseismic evidence in the coastal zone and highlights directions for future sea-level research in Chile.

Quaternary Science Reviews

Predicted exposure of communities in southeastern United States to climate-related coastal hazards

A rigorous analysis of 21st Century multi-hazard exposure for U.S. Southeast Atlantic coastal communities indicates that up to 70% of residents will be exposed daily to shallow and emerging groundwater by ~2100, 15 times higher than from surficial flooding alone. This threat further exacerbates other coastal stressors, such as flooding, subsidence, and beach erosion, that impact these vulnerable coastal communities and ecosystems under expected future climate change scenarios.

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina,

The Limit of Inundation of the September 29, 2009, Tsunami on Tutuila, American Samoa

U.S. Geological Survey scientists investigated the coastal impacts of the September 29, 2009, South Pacific tsunami in Tutuila, American Samoa in October and November 2009, including mapping the alongshore variation in the limit of inundation. Knowing the inundation limit is useful for planning safer coastal development and evacuation routes for future tsunamis and for improving models of tsunami hazards. This report presents field data documenting the limit of inundation at 18 sites around Tutuila collected in the weeks following the tsunami using Differential GPS (DGPS). In total, 15,703 points along inundation lines were mapped. Estimates of DGPS error and uncertainty in interpretation of the inundation line are provided as electronic files that accompany this report.

Open-File Report

Salinification of coastal wetlands and freshwater management to support resilience

Climates are rapidly changing in wetland ecosystems around the world and historical land-use change is not always given enough consideration in climate adaptation discussions. Historical changes to hydrology and other key environments can exacerbate vegetation stress; e.g., recent drought and flood episodes are likely more extreme because of climate change. The contributions of global and regional changes that affect groundwater and surface water availability all need consideration in conservation planning including sea-level rise, coastal subsidence and compaction, fluid extraction, and floodplain reengineering. Where subsidence is not too extreme, healthy coastal vegetation often can keep ahead of sea-level rise by accreting elevation through sedimentary and/or biogenic processes. Better water conservation and minimum water delivery during drought may support foundational species and avoid wetland collapse. Local approaches have been developed to rewet inland floodplains decades after their reengineering for agricultural and urban development to support biodiversity in salinified coastal wetlands. The purpose of this paper is to describe inland wetland remediation techniques that may also be useful to increase freshwater delivery to coastal wetlands experiencing salinification. While some salinified coastal ecosystems may transition in the future, attempts can be made to remediate salinification related to historical land use in support of wetland conservation, health, and sustainability.

Ecosystem Health and Sustainability

Coastal mapping handbook

Passage of the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972 focused attention on the Nation's coastal land and water areas. As plans for more effective management of the coastal zone evolved, it soon became apparent that improved maps and charts of these areas were needed. This handbook was prepared with the requirements of the entire coastal community in mind, giving greatest attention to the needs of coastal zone managers and planners at the State and local levels. Its principal objective is to provide general information and guidance; it is neither a textbook nor a technical manual, but rather a primer on coastal mapping. This handbook should help planners and managers of coastal programs to determine their mapping requirements, select the best maps and charts for their particular needs, and to deal effectively with personnel who gather data and prepare maps. The sections on "Sources of Assistance and Advice" and "Product and Data Sources" should be especially useful to all involved in mapping the coastal zone. Brief summaries of the mapping efforts of several State coastal zone management programs are included. "Future outlook" discusses anticipated progress and changes in mapping procedures and techniques. Illustrations are inserted, where appropriate, to illustrate the products and equipment discussed. Because of printing restrictions, the colors in map illustrations may vary from those in the original publication. The appendixes include substantial material which also should be of interest. In addition a glossary and an index are included to provide easy and quick access to the terms and concepts used in the text. For those interested in more technical detail than is provided in this handbook, the "Selected references" will be useful. Also, the publications of the professional societies listed in appendix 4 will provide technical information in detail.

Report

Heavy mineral sands resources in China

About 200 known coastal deposits of heavy mineral sands (HMS) occur in China, in which considerable mineral resources of titanium, zircon, rare earth elements, and thorium exist in the forms of ilmenite, rutile, zircon, and monazite. More than 20 of these HMS deposits are reported as having been or are actively being mined in China during the past three decades, of which 12 have been reported to have industrial resources. Commercially important deposits occur almost entirely in Cenozoic beach and sand dune deposits, principally along China’s eastern coast (e.g., Shandong Province) and southern coast (e.g., Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and Fujian provinces), and particularly on Hainan island. There are also important deposits of HMS along coastal areas of Taiwan. China has the largest share of the world’s economic ilmenite resources in HMS deposits (31%). A variety of igneous and associated metamorphic rocks along the coastal areas of China provided an abundant source of heavy minerals for the formation of the HMS occurrences. Studies of titanium-rich HMS deposits have shown that ilmenite is mostly sourced from igneous rocks. For example, 40% of the bedrock of Hainan island consists of Triassic and Cretaceous granites emplaced into rocks of the Cathyasia Block, and all of the HMS districts on the island lie no more than 15 km downstream from a Middle Triassic suite of syenite to granite intrusions. The southern coastal regions of Guangdong and Guangxi provinces are dominated by Jurassic granodiorite, biotite granite, two-mica granite, and A-type granite, with minor gabbro and syenite. Identified accessory minerals in the Jurassic alkaline granitoids include zircon, apatite, allanite, titanite, magnetite, ilmenite, monazite, and niobite. Thus, multiple plutons are in proximity to the Cenozoic coastal plain and are available as bedrock sources for the detrital titanium minerals, zircon, and monazite. More than 100 HMS deposits and prospects have been identified in Shandong Province, consisting of more than 20 varieties of heavy minerals in quartz sand, which include zircon, ilmenite, rutile, monazite, magnetite, xenotime, and gold (in general order of abundance) derived from Precambrian metamorphic basement and Mesozoic intrusions. Of these minerals, zircon, magnetite, gold, and quartz sand have economic significance. The quartz sands are used by the glass and construction industries. The placers mainly occur in and adjacent to the littoral zones of the northern and southern coasts of the Jiaodong Peninsula in Shandong province. Seven beach placer, HMS prospective areas have been delineated in coastal areas of the peninsula. Due to nearly exhausted placer reserves in the Chinese coastal zones, as well as increased environmental restrictions, future prospecting for heavy minerals will likely focus on ancient beach systems in China’s inland sedimentary basins. Also, offshore deposits of HMS in shallow coastal waters are other potential sources of heavy minerals, such as the Baoding Sea zircon-titanium, minerals-rich placer under development near Wanning on Hainan. Similarly, there is potential for offshore HMS deposits in shallow waters of the entire coastal area of southern Taiwan that remains to be fully evaluated. Reconnaissance sampling along Taiwan island’s coasts has revealed the potential for extensive, high-grade HMS accumulations nearshore.

Book chapter

Relative Coastal Change-Potential Assessment of Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve

A change-potential index (CPI) was used to map the relative coastal change-potential of the shoreline to future sea-level fluctuation within Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve (GBNPP) in southeastern Alaska. The CPI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level change, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each input variable were combined, and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CPI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level and coastal change might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's potential for change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural susceptibility to the effects of sea-level variation. The CPI provides an objective method for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. The CPI was developed from a Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) typically applied to coastlines experiencing long-term sea-level rise. The CPI is modified from the CVI and applied to the emergent coast of GBNPP to understand the limits of applying this type of assessment method in a variety of sea level settings. GBNPP consists of sand and gravel beaches, rock cliffs, calving glaciers, mudflats, and alluvial fans. The areas within GBNPP that are likely to be most susceptible to coastal change as a result of sea-level change are tidewater glaciers and outer coast shorelines of unconsolidated sediment where wave energy is highest and the regional coastal slope is shallowest.

Open-File Report

Advancing best practices for the analysis of the vulnerability of military installations in the Pacific Basin to coastal flooding under a changing climate – RC-2644

Coastal flooding takes many forms, ranging from major flooding associated with storms to minor flooding associated with exceptionally high tides and other oceanic and atmospheric phenomena on storm-free days. A major societal challenge is to understand and predict how flood magnitude and frequency will manifest at particular places and times, now and in the future. Of particular interest here is how coastal flooding will impact Department of Defense (DoD) installations. In response to this need, this work aims to advance the practical application of statistical and other analytical techniques that can be used to assess the exposure, and ultimately the vulnerability, of built and natural environments to the impacts of coastal flooding. A variety of methods are described and applied to assess exposure. This includes tide gauge station-based diagnosis and prognosis of patterns and trends of Still Water Level, techniques to characterize the expression of ‘lesser extremes’ (e.g., sub-annual to subdecadal event probabilities), and region-wide analysis that improves upon results obtained from conventional single-tide gauge analyses. A novel hybrid statistical and dynamical modeling approach is applied to the analysis of Total Water Levels, necessary for exposure assessment along shorelines exposed to wave action. The hybrid exposure assessment modeling approach is incorporated into a broader mission-based protocol for the assessment of resilience to coastal flooding at the installation level. Demonstrated via an exemplar assessment, which takes into account functional (lost day) as well as financial impacts (lost dollars), the protocol meets the demand for an actionable characterization of how DoD installations will be affected by coastal flooding and improves DoD’s ability to make informed decisions about how to adapt to its effects. The methods described, evaluated, and applied here, including innovative approaches and proof-of-concept products developed through this work, are incorporated into and considered within an analytical framework that serves as guidance as to their relative merits with respect to coastal flood exposure assessment in various circumstances and settings, and illustrates best practices. This will provide engineers, scientists and other practitioners with an enhanced capability to generate information that can be used to support area-wide assessment related to climate adaptation planning and disaster risk reduction as well as site-specific analysis related to design and maintenance of facilities and infrastructure. While the focus is on a select set of DoD sites in the Pacific Basin, the results have broad applicability nationally as well as globally.

Final Report

Coral restoration for coastal resilience: Integrating ecology, hydrodynamics, and engineering at multiple scales

The loss of functional and accreting coral reefs reduces coastal protection and resilience for tropical coastlines. Coral restoration has potential for recovering healthy reefs that can mitigate risks from coastal hazards and increase sustainability. However, scaling up restoration to the large extent needed for coastal protection requires integrated application of principles from coastal engineering, hydrodynamics, and ecology across multiple spatial scales, as well as filling missing knowledge gaps across disciplines. This synthesis aims to identify how scientific understanding of multidisciplinary processes at interconnected scales can advance coral reef restoration. The work is placed within the context of a decision support framework to evaluate the design and effectiveness of coral restoration for coastal resilience. Successfully linking multidisciplinary science with restoration practice will ensure that future large-scale coral reef restorations maximize protection for at-risk coastal communities.

Ecosphere

Coastal Science Navigator companion guide—Discover the U.S. Geological Survey coastal science products you need

The Coastal Science Navigator is an online gateway to a wide variety of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) coastal change hazards-related information, data, and tools relevant to stakeholders’ scientific and decision-making needs. The products within the Coastal Science Navigator provide data related to past, present, and future threats to our coastlines. The filter search allows users to see all available products and identify relevant options by time scale, geographic scope, coastal hazard theme, and other filters. The guided search suggests products based on users’ answers to a short series of questions. A comprehensive summary is available for each product. The idea for the Coastal Science Navigator arose in 2020 in response to stakeholder feedback identifying the need for a central source for USGS coastal science information. It was published in July 2023 and initially included 55 products. Regular updates are planned to integrate other existing and new products. This guide introduces some of the many coastal change hazards-related products available through the USGS. In it, we showcase the products included in the Coastal Science Navigator’s initial publication in July 2023. While it is not representative of all the information, tools, and data available, we hope it serves as a compelling snapshot of what the USGS has to offer and encourages you to explore the Coastal Science Navigator to discover more of the products you need. To navigate this guide, the products have been organized by the time scale they are best suited for—past, present, or future—although many products cover multiple time scales. An additional section features software, one of the many product types available as filters within the Coastal Science Navigator. Other products include downloadable data, websites, and geonarratives (web pages that combine text, images, and interactive maps into narratives you can scroll through). Featured geographic scopes are also highlighted within this guide, detailing some of the many regions in which the USGS conducts research and illustrating another way to filter products within the Coastal Science Navigator.

Circular

Relative coastal change-potential assessment of Kenai Fjords National Park

A change-potential index (CPI) was used to map the relative coastal change-potential of the shoreline to future sea-level changes within Kenai Fjords National Park (KEFJ) in south-central Alaska. The CPI ranks the following parameters in terms of their physical contribution to coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level change, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each input variable were combined, and an index value was calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CPI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level and coastal changes might be the greatest. This multi-parametric approach combines the coastal system's potential for change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural susceptibility to the effects of sea-level variation. The CPI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. The CPI was developed from a Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) typically applied to coastlines undergoing long-term sea-level rise. The CPI is modified from the CVI and applied to the emergent coast of Kenai Fjords National Park to understand the limits of applying this type of assessment method in a variety of sea-level settings. Kenai Fjords National Park consists of sand and gravel beaches, rock cliffs, calving tidewater glaciers, mudflats, and alluvial fans. The areas within Kenai Fjords National Park that are likely to be most susceptible to coastal change as a result of sea-level change are tidewater glaciers and outer coast shorelines of unconsolidated sediment where shoreline erosion potential is high and wave energy is high.

Alaska

Potential impacts of future urbanization and sea level rise on Florida’s natural resources

As urban development continues to encroach into natural systems, these ecosystems experience increasing degradation to their form and function. Losses in biodiversity and ecosystem function are further compounded by changing climatic conditions. The State of Florida is known for its biodiversity but has experienced declines in species populations and habitats because of urbanization and sea level rise. These declines are particularly challenging in an economy that benefits from a multibillion-dollar income from natural resources tourism. In this study, we assessed the potential future impacts of urbanization and sea level rise on a suite of conservation targets that have been set for the State. We developed six scenarios of all combinations of intermediate and high sea level rise paired with two types of urbanization (sprawling and compact) in both 2040 and 2070 to examine the potential future threats to conservation targets in High Pine and Scrub, Coastal Uplands, and Freshwater Aquatics ecosystems. Our results show projected decreases in extent and area of these priority ecosystems into the future. Florida's current trend in urbanization practices are projected to have a greater impact on conservation targets than if sprawl reduction practices are implemented. Coastal Uplands are projected to experience the greatest loss in area, at up to 47%. Conservation-focused urban planning and climate adaptation strategies can help protect Florida's natural resources with benefits to Florida's tourism economy as well as critical ecosystem functions and services such as coastal flood protection and storm surge risk reduction.

Florida

Current and future potential ecosystem services of the Nisqually River Delta: An assessment approach for Puget Sound estuaries and USFWS coastal refuges

The Nisqually River Delta, located in South Puget Sound, contains a rich mosaic of different coastal habitat types. The goal of this project was to quantify ecosystem services — benefits that wildlife or ecosystems provide to people — that are priorities for the Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge, the Nisqually Indian Tribe, and the surrounding communities. We modeled how change in these habitats from sea level rise (SLR) or management activities like restoration could affect ecosystem services in the future. We focused on changes to three main ecosystem services: soil carbon accumulation, birdwatching visitation, and juvenile Chinook salmon growth rates, which served as a proxy for fishery production. A habitat and carbon model projected that after 100 years, most high salt marsh would remain with < 1m SLR, but a substantial area would convert to low salt marsh and mudflat with ≥ 1m SLR. Total carbon accumulation would plateau or decline with ≥ 1m SLR, yet economic value of carbon accumulation would continue to rise over time, suggesting that the value of this ecosystem service is resilient to SLR. Birdwatching visitation was greatest in winter months and was positively related to area of forested wetland, emergent wetland, aquatic vegetation bed (e.g., eelgrass) and mudflat and open access (areas freely accessible to the public). Increases in forested wetland may lead to greater increases in visitation compared to other habitat types. All three ecosystem services increased with increases in forested wetland and emergent wetland, and tradeoffs among services occurred with increases in aquatic vegetation bed and mudflat. While both prey-rich salt marshes and eelgrass meadows facilitate salmon growth, loss of salt marsh led to declines in juvenile salmon weight. In conversation with USFWS managers, we identified practical ways to incorporate ecosystem services into adaptive management frameworks that support climate adaptation decision making. Our study illustrated how accounting for ecosystem services helps managers make decisions that greatly benefit wildlife and people, communicate the societal value of decisions, and increase local engagement and participation.

Washington