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Modelling with stakeholders - Next generation

This paper updates and builds on ‘Modelling with Stakeholders’ Voinov and Bousquet, 2010 which demonstrated the importance of, and demand for, stakeholder participation in resource and environmental modelling. This position paper returns to the concepts of that publication and reviews the progress made since 2010. A new development is the wide introduction and acceptance of social media and web applications, which dramatically changes the context and scale of stakeholder interactions and participation. Technology advances make it easier to incorporate information in interactive formats via visualization and games to augment participatory experiences. Citizens as stakeholders are increasingly demanding to be engaged in planning decisions that affect them and their communities, at scales from local to global. How people interact with and access models and data is rapidly evolving. In turn, this requires changes in how models are built, packaged, and disseminated: citizens are less in awe of experts and external authorities, and they are increasingly aware of their own capabilities to provide inputs to planning processes, including models. The continued acceleration of environmental degradation and natural resource depletion accompanies these societal changes, even as there is a growing acceptance of the need to transition to alternative, possibly very different, life styles. Substantive transitions cannot occur without significant changes in human behaviour and perceptions. The important and diverse roles that models can play in guiding human behaviour, and in disseminating and increasing societal knowledge, are a feature of stakeholder processes today.

Environmental Modelling and Software

Evaluating Re-Os systematics in organic-rich sedimentary rocks in response to petroleum generation using hydrous pyrolysis experiments

Successful application of the 187 Re– 187 Os geochronometer has enabled the determination of accurate and precise depositional ages for organic-rich sedimentary rocks (ORS) as well as establishing timing constraints of petroleum generation. However, we do not fully understand the systematics and transfer behaviour of Re and Os between ORS and petroleum products (e.g., bitumen and oil). To more fully understand the behaviour of Re–Os systematics in both source rocks and petroleum products we apply hydrous pyrolysis to two immature hydrocarbon source rocks: the Permian Phosphoria Formation (TOC = 17.4%; Type II-S kerogen) and the Jurassic Staffin Formation (TOC = 2.5%; Type III kerogen). The laboratory-based hydrous pyrolysis experiments were carried out for 72 h at 250, 300, 325 and 350 °C. These experiments provided us with whole rock, extracted rock and bitumen and in some cases expelled oil and asphaltene for evaluation of Re–Os isotopic and elemental abundance. The data from these experiments demonstrate that the majority (>95%) of Re and Os are housed within extracted rock and that thermal maturation does not result in significant transfer of Re or Os from the extracted rock into organic phases. Based on existing thermodynamic data our findings suggest that organic chelating sites have a greater affinity for the quadravalent states of Re and Os than sulphides. Across the temperature range of the hydrous pyrolysis experiments both whole rock and extracted rock 187 Re/ 188 Os ratios show small variations (3.3% and 4.7%, for Staffin, respectively and 6.3% and 4.9% for Phosphoria, respectively). Similarly, the 187 Os/ 188 Os ratios show only minor variations for the Staffin and Phosphoria whole rock and extracted rock samples (0.6% and 1.4% and 1.3% and 2.2%). These isotopic data strongly suggest that crude oil generation through hydrous pyrolysis experiments does not disturb the Re–Os systematics in ORS as supported by various studies on natural systems. The elemental abundance data reveal limited transfer of Re and Os into the bitumen from a Type III kerogen in comparison to Type II-S kerogen (0.02% vs. 3.7%), suggesting that these metals are very tightly bound in Type III kerogen structure. The 187 Os/ 188 Os data from the pyrolysis generated Phosphoria bitumens display minor variation (4%) across the experimental temperatures, with values similar to that of the source rock. This indicates that the isotopic composition of the bitumen reflects the isotopic composition of the source rock at the time of petroleum generation. These data further support the premise that the Os isotopic composition of oils and bitumens can be used to fingerprint petroleum deposits to specific source rocks. Oil generated through the hydrous pyrolysis experiments does not contain appreciable quantities of Re or Os (~120 and ~3 ppt, respectively), in contrast to natural oils (2–50 ppb and 34–288 ppt for Re and Os, respectively), which may suggest that kinetic parameters are fundamental to the transfer of Re and Os from source rocks to oils. From this we hypothesise that, at the temperatures employed in hydrous pyrolysis, Re and Os are assimilated into the extracted rock as a result of cross-linking reactions.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta

Stationary hydroacoustics demonstrates vessel avoidance biases during mobile hydroacoustic surveys of alewife in Lake Ontario

Mobile hydroacoustic surveys are routinely used to estimate pelagic fish abundance . In the Great Lakes, alewife are commonly surveyed with mobile hydroacoustics, however, their behavior often has them associated with epilimnetic habitats which increases the potential for vessel avoidance to bias hydroacoustic observations. Abundance estimates from mobile hydroacoustic surveys are typically made using depth and size thresholds to classify targets to species. In hydroacoustic surveys, fish can appear to be smaller when oriented off horizontal axis, as is common with fish displaying vessel avoidance behaviour. This presents a problem where alewives that are diving may appear too small to be correctly classified. We compared alewife swimming behaviours and target strength distributions between stationary up-looking and mobile down-looking hydroacoustics to quantify how vessel avoidance may bias hydroacoustic observations. Alewives from the mobile survey were found to be diving away from the surface, moving faster and in more linear paths than the undisturbed fish from the stationary survey. In the mobile survey, alewives were observed at smaller target strength values than would be expected if boat avoidance was not occurring. Our results suggest that alewife behavioral changes associated with vessel avoidance affect the number and size of targets classified as alewife from mobile hydroacoustic surveys in Lake Ontario.

Lake Ontario

Short human occupations in the Middle Palaeolithic level i of the Abric Romani rock-shelter (Capellades, Barcelona, Spain)

This paper presents a multidisciplinary study on the size of the occupied surfaces, provisioning strategies and behaviour planning at the Romani rock-shelter, using the Middle Palaeolithic record of the level i. This level is dated around 46.000 BP through U/Th ages. A behavioural interpretation is proposed, which emphasises the activities and the systemic value of the archaeological artefacts and structures. Occupation patterns are identified on the basis of the accumulations formed by human activities. These archaeological accumulations, consisting of artefacts and hearths, are easily defined visually as spatial units. The relationships between these accumulations, established by means of refitted remains, indicate that differences can be established between: 1) small and medium-sized occupation surfaces; 2) restricted and diversified provisioning strategies. This variability suggests that different modes of occupation are represented in the same archaeological level. The human activities reveal the generalization of fire technology. In almost all sizes of the occupation surfaces, the exploitation of vegetal resources near the Abric Romani marks the threshold of the restricted provisioning strategy. Limited use and fragmented knapping activities are recorded in the lithic assemblage. Faunal remains show differential transport. The exploitation of lithic, faunal and vegetal resources characterizes the diversified provisioning strategy. The small occupation surfaces and restricted provisioning strategies suggest short settlements in the Abric Romani. This shorter occupation model complements the longer diversified provisioning strategy recorded in both small and medium-sized occupied surfaces. The selection of precise elements for transport and the possible deferred consumption in the diversified provision strategy suggest an individual supply. In this respect, Neanderthal occupations in the Romani rock-shelter show a direct relation to: 1) hunting strategic resources; 2) high, linear mobility.

Journal of Human Evolution

Analysis of a municipal wastewater treatment plant using a neural network-based pattern analysis

This paper addresses the problem of how to capture the complex relationships that exist between process variables and to diagnose the dynamic behaviour of a municipal wastewater treatment plant (WTP). Due to the complex biological reaction mechanisms, the highly time-varying, and multivariable aspects of the real WTP, the diagnosis of the WTP are still difficult in practice. The application of intelligent techniques, which can analyse the multi-dimensional process data using a sophisticated visualisation technique, can be useful for analysing and diagnosing the activated-sludge WTP. In this paper, the Kohonen Self-Organising Feature Maps (KSOFM) neural network is applied to analyse the multi-dimensional process data, and to diagnose the inter-relationship of the process variables in a real activated-sludge WTP. By using component planes, some detailed local relationships between the process variables, e.g., responses of the process variables under different operating conditions, as well as the global information is discovered. The operating condition and the inter-relationship among the process variables in the WTP have been diagnosed and extracted by the information obtained from the clustering analysis of the maps. It is concluded that the KSOFM technique provides an effective analysing and diagnosing tool to understand the system behaviour and to extract knowledge contained in multi-dimensional data of a large-scale WTP. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Water Research

Assessing conservation tools for an at-risk shorebird: Feasibility of headstarting for American Oystercatchers Haematopus palliatus

Management of threatened and endangered populations of wildlife increasingly relies upon active intervention such as predator control, habitat manipulation, and ex situ breeding or care. One tool that has received consideration for the management of declining or threatened avian populations is headstarting, or the artificial incubation of eggs and subsequent placement of newly hatched chicks in original or foster nests. We assessed the feasibility of implementing a headstarting program for the American Oystercatcher Haematopus palliatus , a species of high conservation concern in the eastern USA. Annual productivity is often low and lost during incubation, suggesting artificial incubation could enhance annual productivity. We used a control-impact approach to assign nests as either control or headstart and measured daily survival rate, success of parents accepting headstarted chicks, attendance patterns and behaviours of parents, and chick survival. We also implemented a transparent scoring process to rate the success of each step and the overall program. Daily survival rates of nests were significantly higher at headstart compared to control nests, and parents continued to incubate when eggs were well secured at nest sites. Attendance patterns and behaviour did not differ between headstart and control parents, and parents readily accepted healthy chicks whether they were returned to original or foster nests. Chick survival and subsequently annual productivity were, however, not higher at headstart compared to control nests suggesting that although we were able to enhance nest survival, low chick survival was still limiting annual productivity. Ultimately, headstarting may be most appropriate for American Oystercatchers where productivity is lost primarily to flooding, predation, or disturbance during the incubation stage but not during the chick-rearing stage. If, for example, high rates of nest loss are due to predators that also may prey upon chicks, then headstarting may not be an effective conservation tool.

Bird Conservation International

Convergent seed germination in South African fynbos and Californian chaparral

California chaparral and South African fynbos are fire-prone communities dominated by species exhibiting remarkable similarities in germination response. In both regions there are a substantial number of species with germination stimulated chemically by charred wood and smoke. This type of germination behaviour has arisen independently in distantly related families and is interpreted as convergent evolution. Heat-shock is also an important germination trigger that is widespread, although in both regions it is most common in the same families. Phylogeney may play an important role in the presence of this postfire germination cue in both regions, but a much more rigorous analysis is required to show that this trait represents a single unique event in each lineage. In both regions, germination response is not randomly distributed across growth forms and there are marked regional similiarities in the type of germination behaviour associated with certain growth forms. Geophytes largely lack refractory seeds, which require fire-type cues for germination, but the presence of fire-stimulated flowering of bulbs and corms may time recruitment to subsequent postfire years. Annuals that cue germination to postfire conditions are predominantly triggered by chemicals from smoke and/or charred wood.

Plant Ecology

Evidence from the AD 2000 Izu islands earthquake swarm that stressing rate governs seismicity

Magma intrusions and eruptions commonly produce abrupt changes in seismicity far from magma conduits 1,2,3,4 that cannot be associated with the diffusion of pore fluids or heat 5 . Such ‘swarm’ seismicity also migrates with time, and often exhibits a ‘dog-bone’-shaped distribution 3,4,6,7,8,9 . The largest earthquakes in swarms produce aftershocks that obey an Omori-type (exponential) temporal decay 10,11,12 , but the duration of the aftershock sequences is drastically reduced, relative to normal earthquake activity 7,13 . Here we use one of the most energetic swarms ever recorded to study the dependence of these properties on the stress imparted by a magma intrusion 8,11,14,15 . A 1,000-fold increase in seismicity rate and a 1,000-fold decrease in aftershock duration occurred during the two-month-long dyke intrusion. We find that the seismicity rate is proportional to the calculated stressing rate, and that the duration of aftershock sequences is inversely proportional to the stressing rate. This behaviour is in accord with a laboratory-based rate/state constitutive law 16 , suggesting an explanation for the occurrence of earthquake swarms. Any sustained increase in stressing rate—whether due to an intrusion, extrusion or creep event—should produce such seismological behaviour.

Izu Islands

Spatiotemporal clustering of great earthquakes on a transform fault controlled by geometry

Minor changes in geometry along the length of mature strike-slip faults may act as conditional barriers to earthquake rupture, terminating some and allowing others to pass. This hypothesis remains largely untested because palaeoearthquake data that constrain spatial and temporal patterns of fault rupture are generally imprecise. Here we develop palaeoearthquake event data that encompass the last 20 major-to-great earthquakes along approximately 320 km of the Alpine Fault in New Zealand with sufficient temporal resolution and spatial coverage to reveal along-strike patterns of rupture extent. The palaeoearthquake record shows that earthquake terminations tend to cluster in time near minor along-strike changes in geometry. These terminations limit the length to which rupture can grow and produce two modes of earthquake behaviour characterized by phases of major ( M w 7–8) and great ( M w > 8) earthquakes. Physics-based simulations of seismic cycles closely resemble our observations when parameterized with realistic fault geometry. Switching between the rupture modes emerges due to heterogeneous stress states that evolve over multiple seismic cycles in response to along-strike differences in geometry. These geometric complexities exert a first-order control on rupture behaviour that is not currently accounted for in fault-source models for seismic hazard.

South Island

Solving the dynamic rupture problem with different numerical approaches and constitutive laws

We study the dynamic initiation, propagation and arrest of a 2-D in-plane shear rupture by solving the elastodynamic equation by using both a boundary integral equation method and a finite difference approach. For both methods we adopt different constitutive laws: a slip-weakening (SW) law, with constant weakening rate, and rate- and state-dependent friction laws (Dieterich-Ruina). Our numerical procedures allow the use of heterogeneous distributions of constitutive parameters along the fault for both formulations. We first compare the two solution methods with an SW law, emphasizing the required stability conditions to achieve a good resolution of the cohesive zone and to avoid artificial complexity in the solutions. Our modelling results show that the two methods provide very similar time histories of dynamic source parameters. We point out that, if a careful control of resolution and stability is performed, the two methods yield identical solutions. We have also compared the rupture evolution resulting from an SW and a rate- and state-dependent friction law. This comparison shows that despite the different constitutive formulations, a similar behaviour is simulated during the rupture propagation and arrest. We also observe a crack tip bifurcation and a jump in rupture velocity (approaching the P-wave speed) with the Dieterich-Ruina (DR) law. The rupture arrest at a barrier (high strength zone) and the barrier-healing mechanism are also reproduced by this law. However, this constitutive formulation allows the simulation of a more general and complex variety of rupture behaviours. By assuming different heterogeneous distributions of the initial constitutive parameters, we are able to model a barrier-healing as well as a self-healing process. This result suggests that if the heterogeneity of the constitutive parameters is taken into account, the different healing mechanisms can be simulated. We also study the nucleation phase duration Tn, defined as the time necessary for the crack to reach the half-length Ic. We compare the Tn values resulting from distinct simulations calculated using different constitutive laws and different sets of constitutive parameters. Our results confirm that the DR law provides a different description of the nucleation process than the SW law adopted in this study. We emphasize that the DR law yields a complete description of the rupture process, which includes the most prominent features of SW.

Geophysical Journal International

Exploring the relationship between nearshore morphology and shoreline change

Nearshore bathymetry data collected along the US Pacific Northwest is analyzed to determine relationships between nearshore morphology and shoreline change at a variety of spatial scales. Sandbar properties are compared at three sites, locations separated by tens of kilometers but subject to similar hydrodynamic forcing and having like sediment characteristics. These three sites, an accreting coast, an eroding coast, and a dynamically stable coast, are shown to exhibit different large-scale coastal behaviour. The nearshore profile slopes at these locations are correlated with recent shoreline change history. Measurements have revealed offshore trending sandbars that are continuous over alongshore distances of tens of kilometers, behaviour that spatially mimics the net offshore bar migration documented on several other coasts.

Conference Paper

Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments

Human land use practices, altered climates, and shifting forest and fire management policies have increased the frequency of large wildfires several-fold. Mitigation of potential fire behaviour and fire severity have increasingly been attempted through pre-fire alteration of wildland fuels using mechanical treatments and prescribed fires. Despite annual treatment of more than a million hectares of land, quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of existing fuel treatments at reducing the size of actual wildfires or how they might alter the risk of burning across landscapes are currently lacking. Here, we present a method for estimating spatial probabilities of burning as a function of extant fuels treatments for any wildland fire-affected landscape. We examined the landscape effects of more than 72 000 ha of wildland fuel treatments involved in 14 large wildfires that burned 314 000 ha of forests in nine US states between 2002 and 2010. Fuels treatments altered the probability of fire occurrence both positively and negatively across landscapes, effectively redistributing fire risk by changing surface fire spread rates and reducing the likelihood of crowning behaviour. Trade offs are created between formation of large areas with low probabilities of increased burning and smaller, well-defined regions with reduced fire risk.

International Journal of Wildland Fire

Episodic nature of earthquake activity in stable continental regions revealed by palaeoseismicity studies of Australian and North American Quaternary faults

Palaeoseismic investigations of recent faulting in stable continental regions of Australia, North America and India show that these faults typically have a long-term behaviour characterised by episodes of activity separated by quiescent intervals of at least 10 000 and commonly 100 000 years or more. Long recurrence intervals such as these are well documented by detailed studies of the faults that ruptured during the 1986 Marryat Creek, South Australia and 1988 Tennant Creek, Northern Territory earthquakes. Thus, neotectonic features associated with stable continental region faults such as scarps and grabens commonly have subtle geomorphic expression and may be poorly preserved. Many potentially hazardous faults in stable continental regions are aseismic, which is one reason why the inventory of these faults is incomplete. Although they may be currently aseismic, faults in stable continental regions that are favourably oriented for movement in the current stress field could produce damaging earthquakes, often in unexpected places. Comprehensive palaeoseismic investigations of modern and prehistoric faulting events in stable continental regions are needed to understand the long-term behaviour of these faults, and thereby, improve seismic-hazard assessments.

Australian Journal of Earth Sciences

Assessing spontaneous howling rates in captive wolves using automatic passive recorders

We studied the spontaneous vocal behaviour of captive wolves at the International Wolf Center (IWC) in Minnesota (spring 2019 and winter 2020), and the Centro del Lobo Ibérico Félix Rodríguez de la Fuente (CLIFRF) in Spain (winter 2020). We used AudioMoth recording devices to record wolf howling 24 hr/day. We identified 412 solo howl series and 403 chorus howls and found differences between wolves at the two centres. Vocal rates for North American wolves at the IWC (7.8 chorus howls/day in spring and 4.8 chorus howls/day in winter) were higher than rates obtained for Iberian wolves from CLIFRF (3.8 chorus howls/day in winter). Howling rates obtained in our study were similar to those obtained for captive Mexican wolves and greater than those reported for wild wolves. Hourly distribution of howling was also different between centres. The greatest howling activity identified at IWC was at pre-sunrise, while at CLIFRF the peak occurred at sunset. Weather conditions had little influence on the vocal behaviour of the captive wolves we studied. We show the potential of passive recorders to study topics of animal acoustic communication, such as vocal rates and temporal patterns, that have not been deeply addressed due to technological constraints.

Minnesota

The effects of horizontally and vertically oriented baffles on flow structure andascent performance of upstream-migrating fish

Considerable effort has been expended to construct culverts and fishways that allow for fish passage. However, the designs have seldom considered behaviour, energetics, and biomechanics of fish. In this study, we performed controlled experiments, in which upstreammigrating Alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) and Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) were allowed to volitionally enter either one of two open channels. These channels were outfitted with horizontally and vertically oriented baffles. The flow structure was characterized using acoustic Doppler velocimeter measurements. The added baffles had a marked influence on the flow field, which was distinct between horizontal and vertical baffles, indicative of horizontally and vertically orientated vortices, respectively. Passage success was measured, both in terms of attraction and ascent performance under each flow condition. The results indicated that Alewife and Brook Trout staged significantly more attempts into the vertical baffled channel compared to the horizontal baffled channel. However, Alewife traversed greater distances swimming in the channel with the horizontal baffles at the lower flow condition. Brook Trout also swam further under low flow but traversed similar dtistances in both channels. This information furthers our understanding of both ascent performance and behavioural responses of fish in relation to turbulent flow and roughness orientation.

Journal of Ecohydraulics

A Lagrangian particle-tracking approach to modelling larval drift in rivers

The migration of larval fish from spawning to rearing habitat in rivers is not well understood. This paper describes a methodology to predict larval drift using a Lagrangian particle-tracking (LPT) model with passive and active behavioural components loosely coupled to a quasi-three-dimensional hydraulic model. In the absence of measured larval drift, a heuristic approach is presented for the larval drift of two species of interest, white sturgeon ( Acipenser transmontanus ) and burbot ( Lota lota ), in the Kootenai River, Idaho. Previous studies found that many fish species prefer certain vertical zones within the water column; sturgeon tend to be found near the bottom and burbot close to the water surface. Limiting the vertical movement of larvae is incorporated into the active component of the LPT model. The results illustrate a pattern of drift where secondary flow in meander bends and other zones of flow curvature redistributes particles toward the outside of the bend for surface drifters and toward the inside of the bend for bottom drifters. This pattern periodically reinforces the intersection of drifting larvae with channel margins in meander bends. In the absence of measured larval drift data, the model provides a tool for hypothesis testing and a guide to both field and laboratory experiments to further define the role of active behaviour in drifting larvae.

Idaho

Hair growth rate estimation in North American ursids

The feeding ecology of wildlife populations has important implications for individual health, population productivity and distribution patterns. For ursids (bears), food resources and feeding behaviour primarily affect population dynamics via effects on cub production and survival. Much of what is known about the feeding ecology of bears is based on analyses of tissues collected from capture-based research efforts, harvested animals or non-invasive approaches. However, inference about diet from hair has been limited by a lack of quantitative data on the timing of the moult and hair growth rates. We conducted a study to develop and test two methods of quantifying hair growth rates of three species in the family Ursidae ( n = 1 polar bear, Ursus maritimus ; n = 3 black bears, Ursus americanus ; n = 3 grizzly bears, Ursus arctos horribilis ). We implemented visual and biochemical approaches, proven safe for humans and other mammals, in a zoo setting. These methods relied on voluntary bear behaviours trained using positive reinforcement. The two methods were: (i) applying a small patch of hair dye (or bleach) on the rump or foreleg, and (ii) feeding an isotopically labelled amino acid (glycine) capsule that ‘marks’ time at a particular location as it is incorporated within the hair. We collected hair at regular intervals (every 1–2 weeks) for five months from body locations on the bear consistent with commonly sampled collection points in wild-caught bears. We found that both methods effectively identified periods of hair growth and detected individual and seasonal variation in hair growth rates. Average guard hair growth rates ranged between 0.10 and 1.05 mm day −1 across the three species. This study provides the first step for developing a foundation for incorporating seasonality in wild-collected bear hair samples by assessing growth over an annual cycle.

Conservation Physiology

Push and pull of downstream moving juvenile sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) exposed to chemosensory and light cues

Visual and olfactory stimuli induce behavioural responses in fishes when applied independently, but little is known about how simultaneous exposure influences behaviour, especially in downstream migrating fishes. Here, downstream moving juvenile sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) were exposed to light and a conspecific chemosensory alarm cue in a flume and movement were monitored with overhead cameras and nets. When exposed to light, sea lamprey were more likely to be captured in a net closest to the light array. When exposed to the alarm cue, sea lamprey transit rate through the flume increased, but sea lamprey did not avoid the alarm cue plume by moving perpendicular to flow. When the alarm cue and light were applied simultaneously in a push and pull configuration, the alarm cue still triggered enhanced downstream movement (push downstream) and more sea lamprey was still captured in the net nearest the light (pull to the side), resulting in twice as many sea lamprey being captured in the lighted net relative to controls. To our knowledge, this is the first study using multiple sensory cues in a push-pull configuration to modulate fish outmigration. Push and pull of juvenile sea lamprey with sensory cues could be useful to reduce turbine entrainment where native and enhance trap catch where invasive.

Massachusetts