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2019-2021 Palila abundance estimates and trend

The palila ( Loxioides bailleui ) population on Mauna Kea Volcano, Hawai‘i Island, was estimated from annual surveys in 2019−2021, and a trend analysis was performed on survey data from 1998−2021. The 2019 population was estimated at 1,030−1,899 birds (point estimate: 1,432), the 2020 population was estimated at 964−1,700 birds (point estimate: 1,312), and the 2021 population was estimated at 452−940 birds (point estimate: 678). Since 1998, a visual inspection of the size of the area containing palila detections on the western slope based on the minimum/maximum elevations has not shown a substantial change, indicating that the range of the species has remained stable; although this area represents only about 5% of its historical extent. During 1998−2005, palila numbers fluctuated between 4,000 and 6,000, followed by a steep decline. After 2010, palila estimates stabilized around an abundance of 2,000 with a much slower rate of decline. The decline during 1998−2021 was on average 229 birds per year with very strong statistical support for an overall downward trend in abundance. Over the 23-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to an 89% decline in the population.

Hawaii

Precipitation, Ground-water Hydrology, and Recharge Along the Eastern Slopes of the Sandia Mountains, Bernalillo County, New Mexico

The spatial and temporal distribution of recharge to carbonate and clastic aquifers along the eastern slopes of the Sandia Mountains was investigated by using precipitation, water-level, dissolved chloride, and specific-conductance data. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Bernalillo County Public Works Division, conducted a study to assess ground-water conditions and provide technical data that could be used as a basis for management and future planning of eastern Bernalillo County water resources. The intent of the investigation was to improve the current understanding of subsurface mechanisms controlling recharge dynamics in a geologically complex aquifer system. In the Sandia Mountains, precipitation events are generally limited to snowfalls in winter months and monsoon rainfall in late summer. Monthly meteorological data from weather stations in the study area indicate that monsoon rainfall during July and August constitutes close to one-third of annual precipitation totals. Following precipitation and snowmelt events, daily ground-water level data show low-amplitude, long-duration peaks in hydrographs of wells north and west of the Tijeras Fault. Hydrographs of monthly and biannual water-level data from across the study area show seasonal variation and water-level fluctuations in excess of 30 ft during a period of below-average precipitation. Water level observations in 67 percent of wells showing drought-induced water-level declines rebounded to at or near predrought conditions within 6 months of return to normal climate conditions. Cross-correlation of annual hydrologic data shows aquifer response to periods of monsoon recharge to persist from 1 to 6 months following events. The lag time between precipitation input and response of water levels or solute concentrations was largest near the Tijeras and Gutierrez Faults. These results indicate regional faults hydrologically isolate the Tijeras Graben from groundwater recharge originating at high elevations along the eastern slopes of the Sandia Mountains. Recharge rates calculated by using the chloride-mass-balance method for five springs located at the base of the Sandia Mountains ranged from 1 to 23 percent of annual precipitation.

Scientific Investigations Report

Nutrients in northern Missouri streams

Nutrients, specifically nitrogen and phosphorus, are necessary for healthy aquatic communities to thrive, but if nutrient concentrations are too high, water quality can be degraded and natural aquatic communities may be destroyed. Nutrients consistently have been listed nationally as one of the top five causes of stream and river impairments, and agriculture consistently has been identified as the leading known source. The Mississippi River watershed was identified as a top priority for nutrient reductions because of the predominant agricultural land use, the associated harmful effects of nutrient loading on local water bodies, and the resulting annual midsummer northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic “dead” zone. In 2010, the Natural Resources Conservation Service started the Mississippi River Basin Healthy Watersheds Initiative, which offers financial and technical assistance for voluntary conservation practices on agricultural lands. The intention is to reduce nutrient and sediment export to waterways within the Mississippi River watershed. The U.S. Geological Survey Missouri Water Science Center and the Missouri Department of Natural Resources began a cooperative study in 2010 to compare temporal changes in total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations in the Lower Grand River. Despite increases in conservation practice funding from the Mississippi River Basin Healthy Watersheds Initiative during 2011–15 for the Lower Grand River, decreases in flow-normalized total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations during this same period at the Grand River site were less than at the other long-term Missouri River tributary sites that did not receive additional funding. The flow-normalized total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations at the three long-term Missouri River tributary sites were related to the amount of agricultural land use within their watersheds and livestock manure may be a substantial source of stream nitrogen. Monthly total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations within the Lower Grand River increased with increased streamflow, indicating that the major sources of nitrogen and phosphorus are runoff or nutrients that are stored in soils within the streambank that mobilize during higher streamflows. Programs such as the Mississippi River Basin Healthy Watersheds Initiative are intended to encourage voluntary agricultural conservation practices to enhance soil health and reduce nutrient export to streams.

Missouri

Use of the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN and bacterial source tracking for development of the fecal coliform total maximum daily load (TMDL) for Accotink Creek, Fairfax County, Virginia

Impairment of surface waters by fecal coliform bacteria is a water-quality issue of national scope and importance. Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act requires that each State identify surface waters that do not meet applicable water-quality standards. In Virginia, more than 175 stream segments are on the 1998 Section 303(d) list of impaired waters because of violations of the water-quality standard for fecal coliform bacteria. A total maximum daily load (TMDL) will need to be developed by 2006 for each of these impaired streams and rivers by the Virginia Departments of Environmental Quality and Conservation and Recreation. A TMDL is a quantitative representation of the maximum load of a given water-quality constituent, from all point and nonpoint sources, that a stream can assimilate without violating the designated water-quality standard. Accotink Creek, in Fairfax County, Virginia, is one of the stream segments listed by the State of Virginia as impaired by fecal coliform bacteria. Watershed modeling and bacterial source tracking were used to develop the technical components of the fecal coliform bacteria TMDL for Accotink Creek. The Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) was used to simulate streamflow, fecal coliform concentrations, and source-specific fecal coliform loading in Accotink Creek. Ribotyping, a bacterial source tracking technique, was used to identify the dominant sources of fecal coliform bacteria in the Accotink Creek watershed. Ribotyping also was used to determine the relative contributions of specific sources to the observed fecal coliform load in Accotink Creek. Data from the ribotyping analysis were incorporated into the calibration of the fecal coliform model. Study results provide information regarding the calibration of the streamflow and fecal coliform bacteria models and also identify the reductions in fecal coliform loads required to meet the TMDL for Accotink Creek. The calibrated streamflow model simulated observed streamflow characteristics with respect to total annual runoff, seasonal runoff, average daily streamflow, and hourly stormflow. The calibrated fecal coliform model simulated the patterns and range of observed fecal coliform bacteria concentrations. Observed fecal coliform bacteria concentrations during low-flow periods ranged from 25 to 800 colonies per 100 milliliters, and peak concentrations during storm-flow periods ranged from 19,000 to 340,000 colonies per 100 milliliters. Simulated source-specific contributions of fecal coliform bacteria to instream load were matched to the observed contributions from the dominant sources, which were cats, deer, dogs, ducks, geese, humans, muskrats, and raccoons. According to model results, an 89-percent reduction in the current fecal coliform load delivered from the watershed to Accotink Creek would result in compliance with the designated water-quality goals and associated TMDL.

Virginia

Use of the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN and bacterial source tracking for development of the fecal coliform total maximum daily load (TMDL) for Blacks Run, Rockingham County, Virginia

Impairment of surface waters by fecal coliform bacteria is a water-quality issue of national scope and importance. Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act requires that each State identify surface waters that do not meet applicable water-quality standards. In Virginia, more than 175 stream segments are on the 1998 Section 303(d) list of impaired waters because of violations of the water-quality standard for fecal coliform bacteria. A total maximum daily load (TMDL) will need to be developed by 2006 for each of these impaired streams and rivers by the Virginia Departments of Environmental Quality and Conservation and Recreation. A TMDL is a quantitative representation of the maximum load of a given water-quality constituent, from all point and nonpoint sources, that a stream can assimilate without violating the designated water-quality standard. Blacks Run, in Rockingham County, Virginia, is one of the stream segments listed by the State of Virginia as impaired by fecal coliform bacteria. Watershed modeling and bacterial source tracking were used to develop the technical components of the fecal coliform bacteria TMDL for Accotink Creek. The Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) was used to simulate streamflow, fecal coliform concentrations, and source-specific fecal coliform loading in Blacks Run. Ribotyping, a bacterial source tracking technique, was used to identify the dominant sources of fecal coliform bacteria in the Blacks Run watershed. Ribotyping also was used to determine the relative contributions of specific sources to the observed fecal coliform load in Blacks Run. Data from the ribotyping analysis were incorporated into the calibration of the fecal coliform model. Study results provide information regarding the calibration of the streamflow and fecal coliform bacteria models and also identify the reductions in fecal coliform loads required to meet the TMDL for Blacks Run. The calibrated streamflow model simulated observed streamflow characteristics with respect to total annual runoff, seasonal runoff, average daily streamflow, and hourly stormflow. The calibrated fecal coliform model simulated the patterns and range of observed fecal coliform bacteria concentrations. Observed fecal coliform bacteria concentrations during low-flow periods ranged from 40 to 7,000 colonies per 100 milliliters, and peak concentrations during storm-flow periods ranged from 33,000 to 260,000 colonies per 100 milliliters. Simulated source-specific contributions of fecal coliform bacteria to instream load were matched to the observed contributions from the dominant sources, which were cats, cattle, deer, dogs, ducks, geese, horses, humans, muskrats, poultry, raccoons, and sheep. According to model results, a 95-percent reduction in the current fecal coliform load delivered from the watershed to Blacks Run would result in compliance with the designated water-quality goals and associated TMDL.

Virginia

Summary appraisals of the nation's ground-water resources–Texas-Gulf region

Ground water in the Texas-Gulf Region is a large and important resource that can provide a more significant percentage of the total water supply of the region. Total water requirements within the region are projected to rise sharply from 14 million acre-feet (17 cubic kilometres) in 1970 to nearly 26 million acre-feet (32 cubic kilometres) in 2020. About half of the water used in 1970 was ground water. An estimated total of 1.04 billion acre-feet (1,280 cubic kilometres) of recoverable water containing less than 3,000 milligrams per litre dissolved solids is stored above a depth of 400 feet (122 metres) in the aquifers of the region. In addition, part of an estimated 3.28 billion acre-feet (4,040 cubic kilometres) of water in storage below 400 feet (122 metres) is recoverable. Although not all of the ground water in storage is recoverable, a significant amount is available for development; and an enormous quantity is accessible should occasions prompt its use on a time-limited basis. The total steady-state yield (amount of water that approximates the maximum perennial replenishment from precipitation) of the region's aquifers is about 4.6 million acre-feet (5.7 cubic kilometres) annually, or about 2.3 times the ground-water usage in 1970 if the large mining draft on the High Plains is not considered as part of the total steady-state yield. Because of the large quantity of recoverable groundwater in storage, the steady-state yield can be augmented for a very long time on a "deferred" basis, whereby the economic use of the water that is withdrawn from storage in excess of the steady-state yield may result in a strengthened economy. An important goal in programs for meeting future water needs should be to identify the full potential of the available ground-water resources. The subsurface reservoirs may be utilized not only as sources of fresh and treatable water, but as storage facilities for other freshwater supplies and as possible sources of geothermal energy. Some saline-water reservoirs may be suitable for liquid-waste storage or disposal. Large-scale and unregulated ground-water pumping may result in hydrologic problems such as declining water levels, streamflow depletion, and land-surface subsidence; but studies on proper development of the ground-water reservoirs could provide solutions to many of the problems. Water rights and other legal concepts should be based on sound hydrologic principles to assist development of water resources in an orderly and efficient manner. Because significant amounts of ground water are available, the opportunities for expanded and conjunctive use of ground water and surface water should be considered in regional plans for water development and conservation. The complexities of water management and the difficulties of achieving an integrated system of total-water management will require additional technical information.

Louisiana, New Mexico, Texas

Summary appraisals of the Nation's ground-water resources; Texas Gulf region

Ground water in the Texas-Gulf Region is a large and important resource that can provide a more significant percentage of the total water supply of the region. Total water requirements within the region are projected to rise sharply from 14 million acre-feet (17 cubic kilometres) in 1970 to nearly 26 million acre-feet (32.cubic kilometres) in 2020. About half of the water used in 1970 was ground water. An estimated total of 1.04 billion acre-feet (1,280 cubic kilometres) of recoverable water containing less than 3,000 milligrams per litre dissolved solids is stored above a depth of 400 feet (122 metres) in the aquifers of the region. In addition, part of an estimated 3.28 billion acre-feet (4,040 cubic kilometres) of water in storage below 400 feet (122 metres) is recoverable. Although not all of the ground water in storage is recoverable, a significant amount is available for development, and an enormous quantity is accessible should occasions prompt its use on a time-limited basis. The total steady-state yield (amount of water that approximates the maximum perennial replenishment from precipitation) of the region's aquifers is about 4.6 million acre-feet (5.7 cubic kilometres) annually, or about 2.3 times the ground-water usage in 1970 if the large mining draft on the High Plains is not considered as part of the total steady-state yield. Because of the large quantity of recoverable ground water in storage, the steady-state yield can be augmented for a very long time on a 'deferred' basis, whereby the economic use of the water that is withdrawn from storage in excess of the steady-state yield may result in a strengthened economy. An important goal in programs for meeting future water needs should be to identify the full potential of the available ground-water resources. The subsurface reservoirs may be utilized not only as sources of fresh and treatable water, but as storage facilities for other fresh-water-supplies and as possible sources of geothermal energy. Some saline-water reservoirs may be suitable for liquid-waste storage or disposal. Large-scale and unregulated ground-water pumping may result in hydrologic problems such as declining water levels, streamflow depletion, and land-surface subsidence; but studies on proper development of the groundwater reservoirs could provide solutions to many of the problems. Water rights and other legal concepts should be based on sound hydrologic principles to assist development of water resources in an orderly and efficient manner. Because significant amounts of ground water are available, the opportunities for expanded and conjunctive use of ground water and surface water should be considered in regional plans for water development and conservation. The complexities of water management and the difficulties of achieving an integrated system of total water management will require additional technical information.

Louisiana, New Mexico, Texas

Use of the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN and bacterial source tracking for development of the fecal coliform total maximum daily load (TMDL) for Christians Creek, Augusta County, Virginia

Impairment of surface waters by fecal coliform bacteria is a water-quality issue of national scope and importance. Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act requires that each State identify surface waters that do not meet applicable water-quality standards. In Virginia, more than 175 stream segments are on the 1998 Section 303(d) list of impaired waters because of violations of the water-quality standard for fecal coliform bacteria. A total maximum daily load (TMDL) will need to be developed by 2006 for each of these impaired streams and rivers by the Virginia Departments of Environmental Quality and Conservation and Recreation. A TMDL is a quantitative representation of the maximum load of a given water-quality constituent, from all point and nonpoint sources, that a stream can assimilate without violating the designated water-quality standard. Christians Creek, in Augusta County, Virginia, is one of the stream segments listed by the State of Virginia as impaired by fecal coliform bacteria. Watershed modeling and bacterial source tracking were used to develop the technical components of the fecal coliform bacteria TMDL for Christians Creek. The Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) was used to simulate streamflow, fecal coliform concentrations, and source-specific fecal coliform loading in Christians Creek. Ribotyping, a bacterial source tracking technique, was used to identify the dominant sources of fecal coliform bacteria in the Christians Creek watershed. Ribotyping also was used to determine the relative contributions of specific sources to the observed fecal coliform load in Christians Creek. Data from the ribotyping analysis were incorporated into the calibration of the fecal coliform model. Study results provide information regarding the calibration of the streamflow and fecal coliform bacteria models and also identify the reductions in fecal coliform loads required to meet the TMDL for Christians Creek. The calibrated streamflow model simulated observed streamflow characteristics with respect to total annual runoff, seasonal runoff, average daily streamflow, and hourly stormflow. The calibrated fecal coliform model simulated the patterns and range of observed fecal coliform bacteria concentrations. Observed fecal coliform bacteria concentrations during low-flow periods ranged from 40 to 2,000 colonies per 100 milliliters, and peak concentrations during stormflow periods ranged from 23,000 to 730,000 colonies per 100 milliliters. Additionally, fecal coliform bacteria concentrations were generally higher upstream and lower downstream. Simulated source-specific contributions of fecal coliform bacteria to instream load were matched to the observed contributions from the dominant sources, which were beaver, cats, cattle, deer, dogs, ducks, geese, horses, humans, muskrats, poultry, raccoons, and sheep. According to model results, a 96-percent reduction in the current fecal coliform load delivered from the watershed to Christians Creek would result in compliance with the designated water-quality goals and associated TMDL.

Virginia

Pacific Island landbird monitoring annual report, Haleakalā National Park, 2012

Haleakalā National Park (HALE) was surveyed for landbirds and habitat characteristics from March 20 through July 26, 2012. This information provides data in the time-series of landbird monitoring for long-term trends in forest bird distribution, density, and abundance. The Kīpahulu District of eastern Haleakalā Volcano was surveyed using point-transect distance sampling to estimate bird abundance. We surveyed 160 stations and detected a total of 2,830 birds from 12 species. Half of the species were native and half were non-native. Numbers of detections per species ranged from 1 to 849. There were sufficient detections of seven species to allow density estimation. Āpapane ( Himatione sanguinea ) was the most widely distributed and abundant native species detected in the survey. ‘Alauahio ( Paroreomyza montana newtoni ), Maui ‘Amakihi ( Hemignathus virens wilsoni ), and I‘iwi ( Vestiaria coccinea ) were widespread and occurred in relatively modest densities. Only eight Kiwikiu ( Pseudonestor xanthophrys ) and 20 ‘Ākohekohe ( Palmeria dolei ) were detected and were restricted to high elevation wet forest. We estimated an abundance of 495 ± 261individuals of Kiwikiu in a 2,036 ha inference area which likely includes the entire suitable habitat for this species in HALE. For ‘Ākohekohe, we estimated an abundance of 1,150 ± 389 individuals in the 1,458 ha inference area. There was a strong representation of non-native landbirds in the survey area. The Japanese White-eye ( Zosterops japonicus ), Japanese Bush-warbler ( Cettia diphone ), and Red-billed Leiothrix ( Leiothrix lutea ) accounted for nearly half of all landbird detections. Each species was common in predominantly native forests. Vegetation and topographic characteristics were recorded on 160 landbird monitoring stations. HALE canopy and understory composition was predominantly native, especially at elevations above 1,100 m. Much of the forest canopy was comprised of `ohi`a ( Metrosideros polymorpha ) interspersed with mature olapa ( Cheirodendron platyphyllum ). This canopy class occurred at 92.5% of the stations surveyed. More than three-quarters (77.5%) of the monitoring stations had a dense canopy with most crowns interlocking (> 60% cover). More than half (52%) of the stations surveyed had trees taller than 10 m, while almost a third (31%) had trees 5-10 m. Only 17% of the stations had a canopy shorter than 5 m. The native shrubs Vaccinium calycinum , Broussaisia arguta , and Leptecophylla tameiameae were the most common understory plants recorded, occurring at more than 30% of the stations sampled. Native mosses and ferns were also common at stations, occurring at more than 90% of the stations sampled. The invasive Psidium cattleainum , Clidemia hirta , and Hedychium gardnerianum occurred at approximately 14% of the stations sampled, predominantly at elevations below 1,100 m.

Hawai'i

Strategic plan for the Coordinated Intermountain Restoration Project

In 1982, the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM) Idaho State Office began the Intermountain Greenstripping and Rehabilitation Research Project (IGRRP), or the “Greenstripping Program,” to investigate plant materials and technologies that can reduce wildfire incidence and improve rehabilitation practices. Rehabilitation is normally applied as a reactive process to wildfires, yet land managers in the Great Basin wish to become proactive by replacing fire-prone invasive annual grasses with native plants. The Coordinated Intermountain Restoration Project (CIRP) evolved from the Greenstripping Program to conduct research studies and provide technical assistance on restoration of native ecosystems on rangelands that are infested with invasive annual grasses or other invasive or noxious weeds. To accomplish this objective, the CIRP will promote the understanding of ecosystem disturbance dynamics as well as evaluate plant materials, site preparation techniques, weed control methods, seeding equipment, management methods, and monitoring techniques for restoration projects. The CIRP will not address the restoration of forested or woodland (juniper [Juniperus]) ecosystems. It will include a component on fuel management to reduce the impacts of wildfires on semiarid rangeland ecosystems where exotic annual grasses provide the fuel. The people who will benefit directly from this research include land managers and users of public and private lands in the northern Great Basin, the Columbia Plateau, and the Snake River Plain. The CIRP will provide an integration framework for a multidisciplinary approach to research with numerous opportunities for input and collaboration. The U.S. Geological Survey will initially dedicate approximately \$1 million over 5 years (about \$200,000 per year) to jump-start this effort. U.S. Geological Survey funds will establish a science advisory board to oversee the project. This board will contain members of Federal research and management agencies within the region. U.S. Geological Survey funds will support (1) continued development of VegSpec, a computer program that is a restoration expert system, (2) research to examine changes in ecosystem processes when native plant-dominated communities shift to communities dominated by exotic annual grasses, and (3) research to address mechanisms for establishing native plants in locations dominated by exotic annual grasses. Through these initial funds, USGS hopes to leverage additional research with other agencies (e.g., BLM’s Great Basin Restoration Initiative or the Native Plant Materials Development Project, which is an interagency program to supply and manage native plant materials for restoration and rehabilitation on Federal lands) or funding organizations (e.g., the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s [USDA] National Research Initiative Competitive Grants Program, or the USDA’s and U.S. Department of the Interior’s [USDOI] Joint Fire Science Program), and to obtain additional research partners (e.g., university or Federal scientists) willing to expand this effort to address all aspects of this strategic plan.

Information and Technology Report

Ground-water resources and simulated effects of withdrawals in the East Shore area of Great Salt Lake, Utah

The ground-water resources in the East Shore area of Great Salt Lake, Utah, were studied to better define the ground-water system; to document changes in ground-water levels, quality, and storage; and to simulate effects of an increase in ground-water withdrawals. The East Shore aquifer system is in basin-fill deposits, and is primarily a confined system with unconfined parts near the mountain front. Recharge to and discharge from the East Shore aquifer system were estimated to average about 160,000 acre-feet per year during 1969-84, with minor amounts of water being removed from storage during that period. Major sources of ground-water recharge are seepage from surface water in natural channels and irrigation canals, and subsurface inflow from consolidated rock to the basin-fill deposits. Discharge of ground water is primarily to wells, water courses, springs, and as diffuse seepage to Great Salt Lake. Average annual surface-water inflow to the study area was estimated to be 860,000 acre-feet for the period 1969-84. Annual withdrawal of ground water for municipal and industrial use increased from about 10,000 acre-feet in 1960 to more than 30,000 acre-feet in 1980 to supply a population that increased from 175,000 in 1960 to 290,000 in 1980. Long-term trends of ground-water levels indicate a steady decline at most observation wells since 1952, despite near normal or increased precipitation since the late 1960's. Water levels declined as much as 50 feet near the principal pumping center in the east-central part of the study area. They declined as much as 35 feet more than five miles from the pumping center. The increase in withdrawals and subsequent water-level declines have caused about 700 wells within 30 square miles to cease flowing since 1954. A numerical model of the East Shore aquifer system in the Weber Delta area was constructed and calibrated using water-level data and changes in ground-water withdrawals for 1955-85. Predictive simulations were made based on doubling the 1980-84 rate of municipal and industrial withdrawals for 20 years, and using both average and below-average recharge rates. The simulations indicated water-level declines of an additional 35 to 50 feet near the principal pumping center; a decrease in natural discharge to drains, evapotranspiration, and Great Salt Lake; and a decrease in ground-water storage of 80,000 to 115,000 acre-feet after 20 years.

Utah

Using population models to evaluate management alternatives for Gulf Striped Bass

Interstate management of Gulf Striped Bass Morone saxatilis has involved a thirty-year cooperative effort involving Federal and State agencies in Georgia, Florida and Alabama (Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint Gulf Striped Bass Technical Committee). The Committee has recently focused on developing an adaptive framework for conserving and restoring Gulf Striped Bass in the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint River (ACF) system. To evaluate the consequences and tradeoffs among management activities, population models were used to inform management decisions. Stochastic matrix models were constructed with varying recruitment and stocking rates to simulate effects of management alternatives on Gulf Striped Bass population objectives. An age-classified matrix model that incorporated stock fecundity estimates and survival estimates was used to project population growth rate. In addition, combinations of management alternatives (stocking rates, Hydrilla control, harvest regulations) were evaluated with respect to how they influenced Gulf Striped Bass population growth. Annual survival and mortality rates were estimated from catch-curve analysis, while fecundity was estimated and predicted using a linear least squares regression analysis of fish length versus egg number from hatchery brood fish data. Stocking rates and stocked-fish survival rates were estimated from census data. Results indicated that management alternatives could be an effective approach to increasing the Gulf Striped Bass population. Population abundance was greatest under maximum stocking effort, maximum Hydrilla control and a moratorium. Conversely, population abundance was lowest under no stocking, no Hydrilla control and the current harvest regulation. Stocking rates proved to be an effective management strategy; however, low survival estimates of stocked fish (1%) limited the potential for population growth. Hydrilla control increased the survival rate of stocked fish and provided higher estimates of population abundances than maximizing the stocking rate. A change in the current harvest regulation (50% harvest regulation) was not an effective alternative to increasing the Gulf Striped Bass population size. Applying a moratorium to the Gulf Striped Bass fishery increased survival rates from 50% to 74% and resulted in the largest population growth of the individual management alternatives. These results could be used by the Committee to inform management decisions for other populations of Striped Bass in the Gulf Region.

Cooperator Science Series

Trends in spawning populations of Pacific anadromous salmonids

Annual escapement records for 1968-1984 for five species of Pacific salmon-chinook ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), coho ( O. kisutch ), sockeye (O. nerka ), pink ( O. gorbuscha ), and chum (O. keta )—and steelhead ( Salmo gairdneri ) were obtained from published and unpublished sources and organized in a computer database. More than 25,500 escapement records were obtained for more than 1,100 locations throughout Alaska, Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and California. Escapement trends for naturally reproducing populations for which data were available for at least 7 years from 1968 to 1984 and at least 4 years from 1975 to 1984 were analyzed by linear regression. Significant trends were observed in about 30% of the 886 populations examined. Trends were summarized by species for three geographic regions in Alaska and four in the Pacific Northwest (including California). For chinook, sockeye, and pink salmon, trends were predominantly increasing in the Alaska regions and either lacking or predominantly decreasing in most of the Pacific Northwest regions; for coho and chum salmon, trends were predominantly decreasing in one or more Alaska regions as well as in most of the Pacific Northwest regions. For steelhead, too few populations were examined to enable us to characterize trends throughout their range. Among the 657 salmonid populations excluded from the trend analysis because the data sets were incomplete, 13 (of which 2 were in Alaska) declined to zero during the period of analysis. For coho, sockeye, pink, and chum salmon and steelhead, major data gaps were revealed by a comparison of the geographic distribution of escapement records with the spawning distribution of the species. For chinook salmon, escapement records were more geographically representative of the spawning distribution.

Fish and Wildlife Technical Report

Passerine bird trends at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i

Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, on the Island of Hawai‘i, was established in 1985 to protect native forest birds, particularly endangered species. Management actions on the 15,400 ha refuge include removing feral ungulates from the forest and pastures, controlling invasive alien plants, reforesting pastures, and supplementing endangered plant populations. To assess effects of this habitat improvement for birds, we calculated annual density estimates from point transect surveys and examined population trends for eight native and four alien passerine bird species over the 21 years since the refuge was established (1987-2007). We examined trends using a Bayesian approach to log-linear regression. We tested for changes in bird density in three study areas: (1) a middle elevation forest that had been heavily grazed, (2) an upper elevation pasture that was reforested during the study, and (3) a lower area of relatively intact forest that was formerly lightly grazed. In the middle study area, we found that densities of Hawai‘i ‘Elepaio (Chasiempis s. sandwichensis), and the endangered ‘Akiapōlā‘au (Hemignathus munroi) and Hawai‘i Creeper (Oreomystis mana) increased, and that all other native birds showed stable trends and exhibited no evidence of declining trends as has been seen elsewhere in much of Hawai‘i. Trends for all alien birds were also stable, except that House Finch (Carpodacus mexicanus) density has declined. In the lower study area, Hawai‘i Creeper and Hawai‘i ‘Ākepa (Loxops c. coccineus) showed increasing trajectories, and densities have declined for the other native species. Within the reforested upper study area, densities increased for three common native species—Hawai‘i ‘Amakihi (Hemignathus virens), ‘I‘iwi (Vestiaria coccinea), and ‘Apapane (Himatione sanguinea)—and two alien species—Japanese White-eye (Zosterops japonicus) and House Finch. Bird trends at the Hakalau refuge provide some of the first results of habitat improvement for forest birds in Hawai‘i. Restoring tree cover in open pasture and assisting recovery of high-quality habitat benefits both endangered and abundant native birds

Hawai'i

Revised technical implementation plan for the ShakeAlert system—An earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), along with partner organizations, has developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) system called ShakeAlert for the highest risk areas of the United States: namely, California, Oregon, and Washington. The purpose of the system is to reduce the impact of earthquakes and save lives and property by providing alerts to institutional users and the public. Using networks of ground-motion sensors and sophisticated computer algorithms, ShakeAlert can detect an earthquake seconds after it begins, calculate its location and magnitude, and estimate the resulting intensity of shaking. Alerts can then be sent to people and systems that may experience damaging shaking, allowing them to take appropriate protective actions. Depending on the user’s distance from the earthquake, alerts may be delivered before, during, or after the arrival of strong shaking. ShakeAlert is built on the foundation of the sensor networks and data processing infrastructure of the USGS-led Advanced National Seismic System. However, these networks were not originally designed for EEW; old equip­ment needs to be updated and new stations must be added to construct EEW-capable networks. The ShakeAlert data-processing infrastructure includes redundant servers that are geographically distributed at monitoring centers in Seattle, Washington, as well as Menlo Park, Berkeley, and Pasadena in California. Three data-processing layers collect raw ground-motion data from field stations (data layer), analyze these data to estimate the area and intensity of the resulting shaking (production layer), and publish alert products as appropriate for end users (alert layer). The alert layer can support thousands of institutional users and alert redistributors, but the USGS does not have the mission, infrastructure, or expertise to perform public notifications and is therefore recruiting technology enablers from the private sector. Additionally, ShakeAlert will coordinate with both public and private partners to accomplish consistent and ongoing public communication, education, and outreach. The estimated cost of completing the ShakeAlert infrastructure and sensor networks is \$39.4 million and has an estimated annual operation and maintenance cost of \$28.6 million per year. Building a highly reliable data telemetry infrastructure would cost another \$20.5 million and operating this telemetry system would add \$49.8 million per year; however, these costs could be reduced if project partners provide bandwidth on existing systems.

Open-File Report

Technical Analysis of In-Valley Drainage Management Strategies for the Western San Joaquin Valley, California

The western San Joaquin Valley is one of the most productive farming areas in the United States, but salt-buildup in soils and shallow groundwater aquifers threatens this area?s productivity. Elevated selenium concentrations in soils and groundwater complicate drainage management and salt disposal. In this document, we evaluate constraints on drainage management and implications of various approaches to management considered in: *the San Luis Drainage Feature Re-Evaluation (SLDFRE) Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (about 5,000 pages of documentation, including supporting technical reports and appendices); *recent conceptual plans put forward by the San Luis Unit (SLU) contractors (i.e., the SLU Plans) (about 6 pages of documentation); *approaches recommended by the San Joaquin Valley Drainage Program (SJVDP) (1990a); and *other U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) models and analysis relevant to the western San Joaquin Valley. The alternatives developed in the SLDFRE EIS and other recently proposed drainage plans (refer to appendix A for details) differ from the strategies proposed by the San Joaquin Valley Drainage Program (1990a). The Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) in March 2007 signed a record of decision for an in-valley disposal option that would retire 194,000 acres of land, build 1,900 acres of evaporation ponds, and develop a treatment system to remove salt and selenium from drainwater. The recently proposed SLU Plans emphasize pumping drainage to the surface, storing approximately 33% in agricultural water re-use areas, treating selenium through biotechnology, enhancing the evaporation of water to concentrate salt, and identifying ultimate storage facilities for the remaining approximately 67% of waste selenium and salt. The treatment sequence of reuse, reverse osmosis, selenium bio-treatment, and enhanced solar evaporation is unprecedented and untested at the scale needed to meet plan requirements. All drainage management strategies that have been proposed seek to reduce the amount of drainage water produced. One approach is to reduce the amount of drainage per irrigated acre. From modeling simulations performed for the SLDFRE EIS of the Westlands Area of the SLU, theoretical minimums that can be achieved range from approximately 0.16 to 0.25 acre-feet per acre per year (AF/acre/year). Minimum production rates from the Northerly Area of the SLU are theorized as being much higher, approximately 0. 42 to 0.28 AF/acre/year. Rates shown in the SLU Plans for drained acres from the two areas combined are 0.5 AF/acre/year at the subsurface drain stage and 0.37 AF/acre/year after a series of on-farm and regional measures are instituted. Land retirement is a key strategy to reduce drainage because it can effectively reduce drainage to zero if all drainage-impaired lands are retired. Land retirement alternatives considered in the SLDFRE EIS differ for the two areas analyzed in the SLU. The Northerly Area is to retire a nominal 10,000 acres and Westlands is to retire up to 300,000 acres. The initial land retirement option recently put forth in the SLU Plans predicted drainage volume reductions that are consistent with 200,000 acres of land retirement, but only 100,000 acres of land retirement was proposed. Within the proposed area of drainage there are, for all practical purposes, unlimited reservoirs of selenium and salt stored within the aquifers and soils of the valley and upslope in the Coast Ranges. Salt imported in irrigation water is estimated to be at least 1.5 million tons per year for the Westlands and Northerly Areas (SJVDIP, 1998). Analysis of the land retirement alternatives presented in the SLDFRE EIS indicates that land retirement of a minimum of only 100,000 acres results in the annual pumping to the surface of 20,142 pounds of selenium or about a million pounds of selenium over a 50 year period. Retiring 200,000 acres results in an annual pumping of 14,750 pounds of selenium; and reti

Open-File Report

Methodology and technical input for the 2025 U.S. List of Critical Minerals—Assessing the potential effects of mineral commodity supply chain disruptions on the U.S. economy

The Secretary of the Interior, acting through the Director of the U.S. Geological Survey, is tasked by section 7002 (“Mineral Security”) of title VII (“Critical Minerals”) of the Energy Act of 2020 (Public Law 116–260, December 27, 2020, 116th Congress) with reviewing and revising the methodology used to evaluate mineral commodity supply risk and the U.S. List of Critical Minerals (LCM) no less than every 3 years. Following two previous LCM assessments, this analysis represents the latest technical input for evaluating each mineral commodity’s supply risk and determining their recommended status on the LCM. We evaluated mineral commodity supply risk using two criteria: (1) an economic effects assessment that quantified the potential effects of various trade disruption scenarios on the U.S. economy, and (2) an examination of whether the mineral commodity’s U.S. supply chain relied on a sole domestic producer that represented a single point of failure. For the first criterion, postdisruption equilibrium quantities and prices for each mineral commodity were calculated based on their price elasticities of supply and demand and the availability of excess production capacity for each yearlong foreign trade disruption scenario. Subsequently, a nonlinear optimization routine was used with detailed economic input-output tables to estimate the potential economic effects on the U.S. economy of over 1,200 scenarios for 84 mineral commodities. After accounting for the probability of each scenario’s occurrence, the overall results are presented in terms of changes in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by individual industry and the economy overall. The results, which ranged from a net decrease in U.S. GDP of nearly $4.5 billion to a net increase of $33 million, largely reflect U.S. import dependency and world production concentration. Using the Jenks natural breaks optimization method, a statistical classification technique, we categorized the mineral commodities into several classes based on this overall risk quantification. Mineral commodities with annualized probability-weighted net decreases in U.S. GDP greater than $2 million were recommended for inclusion on the LCM. If a mineral commodity did not meet the threshold for inclusion on the LCM under the first criterion, its domestic supply chain was examined under the second criterion, which recommended a mineral commodity for inclusion on the LCM if there was only a single domestic producer. Ultimately, the two criteria resulted in the recommendation of the addition of six mineral commodities (in descending risk order, potash, silicon, copper, silver, rhenium, and lead) to and the removal of two mineral commodities (arsenic and tellurium) from the LCM. By using an economic effects assessment, the results of this analysis provide a prioritization that can also be compared directly against other risk analyses and the cost of various risk mitigation strategies.

Open-File Report

Pacific island landbird monitoring annual report, National Park of American Samoa, Ta‘u and Tutuila units, 2011

The National Park of American Samoa (NPSA) was surveyed for landbirds and habitat characteristics from June through August, 2011. This information provides the first data in the time-series of landbird monitoring for long-term trends in forest bird distribution, density, and abundance within the NPSA. The NPSA survey area was comprised of the terrestrial portions of the Ta‘u and Tutuila Units. Each Unit was surveyed using point-transect distance sampling to estimate bird abundance. Sampling was conducted using a split-panel design where legacy transects are visited during each sampling occasion and newly, randomly located transects are visited only during one sampling occasion. This design optimizes trend detection while allowing for measuring and correcting for estimator bias. A total of 2,516 birds was detected from 13 species in both Units. All species were either endemic or indigenous to the islands of American Samoa. Numbers of detections ranged from 7 to 1,111. Nearly every species detected was broadly distributed in the predominantly native forests of NPSA. Sufficient detections were made of seven species, allowing for density estimation. Densities of species were higher in the Tutuila Unit; with the exception of the Wattled Honeyeater ( Foulehaio carunculata ), which was the most abundant species in both Units. The species occurred at nearly every station sampled and had densities much higher than the Samoan Starling ( Aplonis atrifusca ), Polynesian Starling ( Aplonis tabuensis ), and Collared Kingfisher ( Halcyon chloris ) which occurred in modest densities. The remaining species detected occurred at less than 20% of stations sampled and we were only able to determine the number of birds per station and percent occurrence. The White-rumped Swiftlet ( Aerodramus spodiopygius ) and Cardinal Honeyeater ( Myzomela cardinalis ) were detected in small numbers, but both species can be difficult to detect in closed canopy forests. The Purple Swamphen ( Porphyrio porphyrio ) and Banded Rail ( Gallirallus philippensis ) were most often detected in areas close to villages and agroforestry plantations. The Blue-crowned Lorikeet ( Vini australis ) and Fiji Shrikebill ( Clytorhynchus vitiensis ) only occur in the Manu‘a Island Group. The former was detected in most survey areas and the latter was patchily distributed in the Ta‘u Unit. The Many-colored Fruit-dove ( Ptilinopus perousii ), a species of concern, was detected in very small numbers in both Units. The Spotless Crake ( Porzana tabuensi ), which is extirpated on Tutuila Island, has been incidentally detected in small numbers on Ta‘u Island. However, the species was neither seen nor heard during this survey and remains a species of concern. NPSA canopy and understory composition was predominantly native, and trees formed a dense closed canopy at nearly 90% of the stations sampled. More than half of the tree heights in both units were taller than 5 m and the majority of slopes were steeper than 20 degrees. There were no clear dominant tree species in the mixed native forests. The most common tree species documented included Syzygium spp., Dysoxylum spp., Ficus spp., Hibiscus tiliaceus and Rhus taitensis (among others). There were significant differences in the distribution of bird densities between legacy and random transects. Determining differences in detection probabilities cannot be definitively assessed from a single survey. We recommend both panels be sampled in the future until bias in density and abundance can be evaluated, or if sampling may be reduced.

American Samoa;National Park Of American Samoa