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Principles for selecting earthquake motions in engineering design of large dams

This report gives a synopsis of the various tools and techniques used in selecting earthquake ground motion parameters for large dams. It presents 18 charts giving newly developed relations for acceleration, velocity, and duration versus site earthquake intensity for near- and far-field hard and soft sites and earthquakes having magnitudes above and below 7. The material for this report is based on procedures developed at the Waterways Experiment Station. Although these procedures are suggested primarily for large dams, they may also be applicable for other facilities. Because no standard procedure exists for selecting earthquake motions in engineering design of large dams, a number of precautions are presented to guide users. The selection of earthquake motions is dependent on which one of two types of engineering analyses are performed. A pseudostatic analysis uses a coefficient usually obtained from an appropriate contour map; whereas, a dynamic analysis uses either accelerograms assigned to a site or specified respunse spectra. Each type of analysis requires significantly different input motions. All selections of design motions must allow for the lack of representative strong motion records, especially near-field motions from earthquakes of magnitude 7 and greater, as well as an enormous spread in the available data. Limited data must be projected and its spread bracketed in order to fill in the gaps and to assure that there will be no surprises. Because each site may have differing special characteristics in its geology, seismic history, attenuation, recurrence, interpreted maximum events, etc., as integrated approach gives best results. Each part of the site investigation requires a number of decisions. In some cases, the decision to use a 'least ork' approach may be suitable, simply assuming the worst of several possibilities and testing for it. Because there are no standard procedures to follow, multiple approaches are useful. For example, peak motions at a site may be obtained from several methods that involve magnitude of earthquake, distance from source, and corresponding motions; or, alternately, peak motions may be assigned from other correlations based on earthquake intensity. Various interpretations exist to account for duration, recurrence, effects of site conditions, etc. Comparison of the various interpretations can be very useful. Probabilities can be assigned; however, they can present very serious problems unless appropriate care is taken when data are extrapolated beyond their data base. In making deterministic judgments, probabilistic data can provide useful guidance in estimating the uncertainties of the decision. The selection of a design ground motion for large dams is based in the end on subjective judgments which should depend, to an important extent, on the consequences of failure. Usually, use of a design value of ground motion representing a mean plus one standard deviation of possible variation in the mean of the data puts one in a conservative position. If failure presents no hazard to life, lower values of design ground motion may be justified, providing there are cost benefits and the risk is acceptable to the owner. Where a large hazard to life exists (i.e., a dam above an urbanized area) one may wish to use values of design ground motion that approximate the very worst case. The selection of a design ground motion must be appropriate for its particular set of circumstances.

Open-File Report↗

VS30 – A site-characterization parameter for use in building Codes, simplified earthquake resistant design, GMPEs, and ShakeMaps

VS30, defined as the average seismic shear-wave velocity from the surface to a depth of 30 meters, has found wide-spread use as a parameter to characterize site response for simplified earthquake resistant design as implemented in building codes worldwide. VS30 , as initially introduced by the author for the US 1994 NEHRP Building Code, provides unambiguous definitions of site classes and site coefficients for site-dependent response spectra based on correlations derived from extensive borehole logging and comparative ground-motion measurement programs in California. Subsequent use of VS30 for development of strong ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and measurement of extensive sets of VS borehole data have confirmed the previous empirical correlations and established correlations of SVS30 with VSZ at other depths. These correlations provide closed form expressions to predict S30 V at a large number of additional sites and further justify S30 V as a parameter to characterize site response for simplified building codes, GMPEs, ShakeMap, and seismic hazard mapping.

Conference Paper↗

Preliminary volcano-hazard assessment for the Katmai volcanic cluster, Alaska

The world’s largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century broke out at Novarupta (fig. 1) in June 1912, filling with hot ash what came to be called the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes and spreading downwind more fallout than all other historical Alaskan eruptions combined. Although almost all the magma vented at Novarupta, most of it had been stored beneath Mount Katmai 10 km away, which collapsed during the eruption. Airborne ash from the 3-day event blanketed all of southern Alaska, and its gritty fallout was reported as far away as Dawson, Ketchikan, and Puget Sound (fig. 21). Volcanic dust and sulfurous aerosol were detected within days over Wisconsin and Virginia; within 2 weeks over California, Europe, and North Africa; and in latter-day ice cores recently drilled on the Greenland ice cap. There were no aircraft in Alaska in 1912—fortunately! Corrosive acid aerosols damage aircraft, and ingestion of volcanic ash can cause abrupt jet-engine failure. Today, more than 200 flights a day transport 20,000 people and a fortune in cargo within range of dozens of restless volcanoes in the North Pacific. Air routes from the Far East to Europe and North America pass over and near Alaska, many flights refueling in Anchorage. Had this been so in 1912, every airport from Dillingham to Dawson and from Fairbanks to Seattle would have been enveloped in ash, leaving pilots no safe option but to turn back or find refuge at an Aleutian airstrip west of the ash cloud. Downwind dust and aerosol could have disrupted air traffic anywhere within a broad swath across Canada and the Midwest, perhaps even to the Atlantic coast. The great eruption of 1912 focused scientific attention on Novarupta, and subsequent research there has taught us much about the processes and hazards associated with such large explosive events (Fierstein and Hildreth, 1992). Moreover, work in the last decade has identified no fewer than 20 discrete volcanic vents within 15 km of Novarupta (Hildreth and others, 1999, 2000, 2001; Hildreth and Fierstein, 2000), only half of which had been named previously—the four stratovolcanoes Mounts Katmai, Mageik, Martin, and Griggs; the cone cluster called Trident Volcano; Snowy Mountain; and the three lava domes Novarupta, Mount Cerberus, and Falling Mountain. The most recent eruptions were from Trident Volcano (1953–74), but there have been at least eight other, probably larger, explosive events from the volcanoes of this area in the past 10,000 years. This report summarizes what has been learned about the volcanic histories and styles of eruption of all these volcanoes. Many large earthquakes occurred before and during the 1912 eruption, and the cluster of Katmai volcanoes remains seismically active. Because we expect an increase in seismicity before eruptions, seismic monitoring efforts to detect volcanic unrest and procedures for eruption notification and dissemination of information are included in this report. Most at risk from future eruptions of the Katmai volcanic cluster are (1) air-traffic corridors of the North Pacific, including those approaching Anchorage, one of the Pacific’s busiest international airports, (2) several regional airports and military air bases, (3) fisheries and navigation on the Naknek Lake system and Shelikof Strait, (4) pristine wildlife habitat, particularly that of the Alaskan brown bear, and (5) tourist facilities in and near Katmai National Park.

Alaska↗

Hydrologic hazards along Squaw Creek from a hypothetical failure of the glacial moraine impounding Carver Lake near Sisters, Oregon

A hydrologic hazard exists that could create a large-magnitude, but short-duration, flood in the Squaw Creek drainage and inundate areas in and around the community of Sisters, Oregon. There is a 1 to 5% probability that Carver Lake, located at elevation 7,800 ft above sea level on the east slope of South Sister mountain, Oregon, could catastrophically empty. At the U.S. Geological Survey gage (14075000) on Squaw Creek between Carver Lake and Sisters, the magnitude of the breakout flood would be 10 times that of a 1% probability meteorological flood. In Sisters, the magnitude of the breakout flood would be about five times that of a 1% probability meteorological flood. Several conditions at Carver Lake indicate the potential hazard: (1) The lake is very deep for its size; the lake contains 740 acre-ft of water and is more than 100 ft deep; (2) There is a probability that a large magnitude avalanche and consequent overtopping of the lake could occur. There are steep slopes of unstable volcanic rock and an extensively cravassed glacier located above the lake; (3) The moraine dam confining the lake is steep-faced, rendering the dam unstable, and unvegetated making it highly erodible; (4) Large amounts of readily erodible material available for transport would increase the magnitude of a large flood and keep the flood from attenuating in the steep reaches of the Squaw Creek channel; (5) and, Geologically, there is a greater than normal possibility for the area to become seismically active. Earthquakes could cause rock and ice to fall into the lake. A one-dimensional unsteady-state streamflow model was used to route a hypothetical flood down the Squaw Creek drainage. This scenario creates a starting hydrograph with a peak of 180,000 cu ft/sec. The ensuing hypothetical flood would incorporate readily erodible debris and sediments in the steep canyons, increasing the total volume of the flood by a factor of two. As the peak emerges from the steeper slopes into a more gently sloping valley 8 miles from the lake, the peak would attenuate to 47,000 cu ft/sec. At the Geological Survey gage at river mile 26.6, the peak would attenuate to 21,000 cu ft/sec. In Sisters on the alluvial fan, at about 20 miles downstream from the lake, the peak would continue to attenuate to 9,800 cu ft/sec. (Lantz-PTT)

Open-File Report↗

Earthquake-derived seismic velocity changes during the 2018 caldera collapse of Kīlauea volcano

The 2018 Kīlauea caldera collapse produced extraordinary sequences of seismicity and deformation, with 62 episodic collapse events which significantly altered the landscape of the summit region. Despite decades of focused scientific studies at Kīlauea, detailed information about the internal structure of the volcano is limited. Recently developed techniques in seismic interferometry can be used to monitor the internal structure of an active volcano more directly by detecting subtle spatiotemporal changes in seismic wave velocity, but their utility relies on accurate interpretations of the underlying phenomena causing those velocity changes. Here, we retrospectively apply repeating-earthquake-based seismic interferometry to the 2018 Kīlauea eruption sequence. We find that seismic velocities changed over two distinct time scales: a sudden increase followed by a slower decrease in velocity in the hours following each collapse event, and a gradual, long-term decrease in velocity over several weeks that ceased approximately 1 month prior to the end of the eruption. Modeling suggests that short-term changes can be explained by magma reservoir pressurization which specifically closed vertical ring fractures. Long-term changes are related to subsidence of the caldera and likely include the influence of inelastic strain from the formation of new fractures. These observations provide new insights into the evolution of Kīlauea during its progressive collapse and will inform future interpretations for near-real-time monitoring at hazardous volcanoes around the world using similar techniques, especially where a dominant fracture orientation is present.

Hawaii↗

Preliminary geologic map of the San Fernando 7.5' quadrangle, southern California: A digital database

The city of San Fernando sits atop a structurally complex, sedimentologically diverse, and tectonically evolving late Tertiary-Quaternary basin situated within the Transverse Ranges of southern California. The surrounding San Fernando Valley (SFV) contains the headwaters of the Los Angeles River and its tributaries. Prior to the advent of flood control, the valley floor was composed of active alluvial fans and floodplains. Seasonal streams emanating from Pacoima and Big Tujunga Canyons drain the complex western San Gabriel Mountains and deposit coarse, highly permeable alluvium that contains generally high-quality ground water. The more shallow western part derives mainly from Tertiary and pre-Tertiary sedimentary rocks, and is underlain by less permeable, fine-grained deposits containing persistent shallow ground water and poorer water quality. Home of the 1971 San Fernando and the 1994 Northridge earthquakes, the SFV experienced near-record levels of strong ground motion in 1994 that caused widespread damage from strong shaking and ground failure. A new map of late Quaternary deposits of the San Fernando area shows that the SFV is a structural trough that has been filled from the sides, with the major source of sediment being large drainages in the San Gabriel Mountains. Deposition on the major alluvial fan of Tujunga Wash and Pacoima Wash, which issues from the San Gabriel Mountains, and on smaller fans, has been influenced by ongoing compressional tectonics in the valley. Late Pleistocene deposits have been cut by active faults and warped over growing folds. Holocene alluvial fans are locally ponded behind active uplifts. The resulting complex pattern of deposits has a major effect on liquefaction hazards. Young sandy sediments generally are highly susceptible to liquefaction where they are saturated, but the distribution of young deposits, their grain size characteristics, and the level of ground water all are complexly dependent on the tectonics of the valley. The San Fernando area lies on the southern slopes of the San Gabriel Mountains. The basement rocks here include high-grade metamorphic rocks of Precambrian age. The mountains are largely composed of crystalline basement that includes the Pelona Scist of probable Mesozoic age that has been overthrust by Precambrian gneisses; the gneisses were subsequently intruded by Mesozoic plutons prior to overthrusting along the latest Cretaceous Vincent thrust. Gneisses of somewhat variable composition and possibly varying ages are found in four terranes, but not all are in contact with Pelona Schist. Large tracts of Precambrian (1.2 billion years old) andesine anorthosite are intrusive into 1.7 billion year-old Mendenhall gneiss, and are found in the western part of the San Gabriels. Mixed with these are younger marble, limestone, and schist of possible Paleozoic age found in association with plutons along the southern margin of the range. The older rocks are intruded by diorite, quartz diorite, and granodiorite of Jurassic age. Also present are siliceous sedimentary rocks of Jurassic age. A thick section of Tertiary sedimentary and volcanic rocks overlie these units. The sediments located south of the San Gabriel Fault are totally different in character from those on the northern range flank, and mostly resemble the western Transverse Ranges due to their deposition in the southeastern Ventura basin; approximately 3,000 m of these sediments are exposed north and west of the city of San Fernando in the Tujunga syncline. Some of the Tertiary rocks are Paleocene and Eocene in age, but the bulk of these rocks are Oligocene and Miocene in age. The Vasquez and Sespe Formations of basal basaltic volcanic and sandstone are Oligocene and lower Miocene in age. These are overlain by clastic rocks of Tick Canyon and Mint Canyon Formations of middle to late Miocene age. Above these rocks are the Castaic, Modelo, and Santa Margarita Formations of fossiliferous marine shale, sand

California↗

Updating the crustal fault model for the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model for Alaska

We present the crustal fault model for Alaska, based on geologic observations, as a primary input for the 2023 revision of the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model. We update the 2013 Alaska Quaternary fault and fold database to produce a simplified model of 105 fault sections and four fault zone polygons with basic geologic parameters including slip sense and rate. Significant updates include the following: (1) a slip rate of ∼53 mm/year on the Queen Charlotte Fault indicating it accommodates all of the plate boundary motion; (2) quantified slip rates on megathrust splay faults in the southern Prince William Sound region and near Kodiak Island; (3) improved details of structures in the Chugach-St. Elias orogen; (4) revision of the Castle Mountain Fault from right-lateral slip to a predominantly reverse fault; (5) improved Interior Alaska tectonic models that clarify relationships between the Denali, Totschunda, and thrust faults on both sides of the Alaska Range; (6) identified large earthquake sources in the eastern Brooks Range; and (7) omission of the Chatham Strait section of the Denali Fault. The fault model underscores that the collision of the Yakutat microplate is the dominant driver of active crustal faulting in most of Alaska.

Alaska, Yukon↗

Seismicity zoning at Coso geothermal field and stress changes from fluid production and migration

The Coso geothermal field is a major geothermal power production site in the western United States. It has been observed that low-magnitude seismic events ( M < 3.71) are unevenly distributed in three distinct zones, namely, nearfield (<3 km), midfield (3–6 km), and farfield (> 6 km) from the Coso geothermal plant. These zones exhibit distinct changes in earthquake location before and during geothermal production episodes that began in 1986. After 1986, the midfield region of the main flank experiences a significantly lower seismicity rate than the surrounding areas before production episodes. During 2014–2019, the farfield earthquakes cluster in the eastern and western parts of the greater Coso area, which is discernably different from how those pre-production earthquake events were distributed along the conjugate NW-SE and SW-NW trending structures across the main flank. Here, we analyze the stage of stress with finite-element-based poroelastic simulations to illustrate how the spatiotemporal evolution of the seismicity is associated with the pattern of stress perturbations caused by fluid migration amid the operations of geothermal power plants. Generally, ∼70% of co-production seismicity is found in zones of increased Coulomb stress between 2014 and 2019 at >99% confidence. Meanwhile, the midfield zone of seismic paucity overlaps with the zone of decreasing pore-fluid pressure. Overall, the results provide a physical explanation of how decadal geothermal operations at Coso have perturbed stress-field changes and contributed to the evolving characteristic seismic pattern, shedding insights into assessing the seismic hazard in other geothermal settings.

California↗

Blind shear-wave velocity comparison of ReMi and MASW results with boreholes to 200 m in Santa Clara Valley: Implications for earthquake ground-motion assessment

Multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) and refraction microtremor (ReMi) are two of the most recently developed surface acquisition techniques for determining shallow shear-wave velocity. We conducted a blind comparison of MASW and ReMi results with four boreholes logged to at least 260 m for shear velocity in Santa Clara Valley, California, to determine how closely these surface methods match the downhole measurements. Average shear-wave velocity estimates to depths of 30, 50, and 100 m demonstrate that the surface methods as implemented in this study can generally match borehole results to within 15% to these depths. At two of the boreholes, the average to 100 m depth was within 3%. Spectral amplifications predicted from the respective borehole velocity profiles similarly compare to within 15 % or better from 1 to 10 Hz with both the MASW and ReMi surface-method velocity profiles. Overall, neither surface method was consistently better at matching the borehole velocity profiles or amplifications. Our results suggest MASW and ReMi surface acquisition methods can both be appropriate choices for estimating shearwave velocity and can be complementary to each other in urban settings for hazards assessment.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Evaluation of seismic slope-performance models using a regional case study

This paper compares four permanent displacement models based on Newmark's sliding-block analogy for assessing regional seismic slope-performance. The models vary primarily by the ground motion descriptor used to correlate with Newmark displacement. The first uses peak ground-acceleration (PGA). The second uses PGA but normalizes displacements by predominant period and equivalent cycles. The third uses Arias intensity. The fourth calculates cumulative displacements from double-integrating simulated earthquake accelerograms. The models are implemented in a GIS to characterize seismic slope-performance for the Oakland East quadrangle near San Francisco, California. The resulting slope-performance maps are compared visually and through statistical analysis to expose potential differences and assess the effects of using a particular approach within a decision-making context. These maps were created for the purpose of comparison and are not suitable for use as critical decision-making tools. The models forecast notably different levels of slope-performance, with the PGA-based models predicting the greatest Newmark displacement on average. Thus, considering the variety of slope-performance models, it is suggested that practitioners avoid reliance on a single model. Instead, multiple models can be implemented in a GIS framework to gain a better perspective of the potential hazard and make a more informed decision.

California↗

NOAA/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center Pacific Ocean response criteria

New West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakes occurring in the Pacific basin are presented. Initial warning decisions are based on earthquake location, magnitude, depth, and - dependent on magnitude - either distance from source or precomputed threat estimates generated from tsunami models. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Changes to the previous criteria include: adding hypocentral depth dependence, reducing geographical warning extent for the lower magnitude ranges, setting special criteria for areas not well-connected to the open ocean, basing warning extent on pre-computed threat levels versus tsunami travel time for very large events, including the new advisory product, using the advisory product for far-offshore events in the lower magnitude ranges, and specifying distances from the coast for on-shore events which may be tsunamigenic. This report sets a baseline for response criteria used by the WCATWC considering its processing and observational data capabilities as well as its organizational requirements. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of slumps). As further research and development provides better tsunami source definition, observational data streams, and improved analysis tools, the criteria will continue to adjust. Future lines of research and development capable of providing operational tsunami warning centers with better tools are discussed.

Science of Tsunami Hazards↗

Measuring, modelling and projecting coastal land subsidence

Coastal subsidence contributes to relative sea-level rise and exacerbates flooding hazards, with the at-risk population expected to triple by 2070. Natural processes of vertical land motion, such as tectonics, glacial isostatic adjustment and sediment compaction, as well as anthropogenic processes, such as fluid extraction, lead to globally variable subsidence rates. In this Review, we discuss the key physical processes driving vertical land motion in coastal areas. Use of space-borne and land-based techniques and the associated uncertainties for monitoring subsidence are examined, as are physics-based models used to explain contemporary subsidence rates and to obtain future projections. Steady and comparatively low rates of subsidence and uplift owing to tectonic processes and glacial isostatic adjustment can be assumed for the twenty-first century. By contrast, much higher and variable subsidence rates occur owing to compaction associated with sediment loading and fluid extraction, as well as large earthquakes. These rates can be up to two orders of magnitude higher than the present-day rate of global sea-level rise. Multi-objective predictive models are required to account for the underlying physical processes and socio-economic factors that drive subsidence.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment↗

Temporal and spatial changes in seismic attenuation associated with inferred fluid migration in the 2016 central Apennines earthquake sequence

Prior work suggests that high‐frequency seismic attenuation acts as a highly sensitive proxy for crustal permeability and fluid mobility in fractured media. We test the hypothesis that the fault system responsible for the 2016–2017 Amatrice–Visso–Norcia–Capitignano sequence acted as an impermeable seal, compartmentalizing pressurized fluids until dynamic rupture triggered widespread fluid diffusion. By tracking across the sequence the spatiotemporal evolution of the S ‐wave anelastic attenuation parameter, we identify large, positive low‐frequency attenuation anomalies emerging within the hanging wall following the Amatrice mainshock and strictly preceding subsequent large ruptures. Conversely, we observe weaker, negative anomalies in the footwall, anticorrelated in time with those of the hanging wall, revealing a massive asymmetry in fluid redistribution and permeability evolution across the fault system. Furthermore, aftershock migration rates reveal distinct linear alignments in a distance‐reduced time space, allowing us to explicitly track and quantify episodes of lateral and upward fluid migration. These physically consistent patterns suggest that stress‐driven fluid diffusion directly weakens adjacent fault patches, dictating the spatiotemporal migration of seismicity. We conclude that near‐real‐time monitoring of seismic attenuation may help detect fluid redistribution in active fault systems and may provide useful information for time‐dependent seismic hazard assessment.

central Apennines↗

Structure and seismic hazard of the Ventura Avenue anticline and Ventura fault, California: Prospect for large, multisegment ruptures in the Western Transverse Ranges

The Ventura Avenue anticline is one of the fastest uplifting structures in southern California, rising at ∼5 mm/yr. We use well data and seismic reflection profiles to show that the anticline is underlain by the Ventura fault, which extends to seismogenic depth. Fault offset increases with depth, implying that the Ventura Avenue anticline is a fault‐propagation fold. A decrease in the uplift rate since ∼30±10 ka is consistent with the Ventura fault breaking through to the surface at that time and implies that the fault has a recent dip‐slip rate of ∼4.4–6.9 mm/yr. To the west, the Ventura fault and fold trend continues offshore as the Pitas Point fault and its associated hanging wall anticline. The Ventura–Pitas Point fault appears to flatten at about 7.5 km depth to a detachment, called the Sisar decollement, then step down on a blind thrust fault to the north. Other regional faults, including the San Cayetano and Red Mountain faults, link with this system at depth. We suggest that below 7.5 km, these faults may form a nearly continuous surface, posing the threat of large, multisegment earthquakes. Holocene marine terraces on the Ventura Avenue anticline suggest that it grows in discrete events with 5–10 m of uplift, with the latest event having occurred ∼800 years ago ( Rockwell, 2011 ). Uplift this large would require large earthquakes ( M w 7.7–8.1) involving the entire Ventura/Pitas Point system and possibly more structures along strike, such as the San Cayetano fault. Because of the local geography and geology, such events would be associated with significant ground shaking amplification and regional tsunamis.

California↗

Upper-crustal structure beneath the strait of Georgia, Southwest British Columbia

We present a new three-dimensional (3-D) P -wave velocity model for the upper-crustal structure beneath the Strait of Georgia, southwestern British Columbia based on non-linear tomographic inversion of wide-angle seismic refraction data. Our study, part of the Georgia Basin Geohazards Initiative (GBGI) is primarily aimed at mapping the depth of the Cenozoic sedimentary basin and delineating the near-surface crustal faults associated with recent seismic activities (e.g. M = 4.6 in 1997 and M = 5.0 in 1975) in the region. Joint inversion of first-arrival traveltimes from the 1998 Seismic Hazards Investigation in Puget Sound (SHIPS) and the 2002 Georgia Basin experiment provides a high-resolution velocity model of the subsurface to a depth of ∼7 km. In the southcentral Georgia Basin, sedimentary rocks of the Cretaceous Nanaimo Group and early Tertiary rocks have seismic velocities between 3.0 and 5.5 km s −1 . The basin thickness increases from north to south with a maximum thickness of 7 (±1) km (depth to velocities of 5.5 km s −1 ) at the southeast end of the strait. The underlying basement rocks, probably representing the Wrangellia terrane, have velocities of 5.5–6.5 km s −1 with considerable lateral variation. Our tomographic model reveals that the Strait of Georgia is underlain by a fault-bounded block within the central Georgia Basin. It also shows a correlation between microearthquakes and areas of rapid change in basin thickness. The 1997/1975 earthquakes are located near a northeast-trending hinge line where the thicknesses of sedimentary rocks increase rapidly to the southeast. Given its association with instrumentally recorded, moderate sized earthquakes, we infer that the hinge region is cored by an active fault that we informally name the Gabriola Island fault. A northwest-trending, southwest dipping velocity discontinuity along the eastern side of Vancouver Island correlates spatially with the surface expression of the Outer Island fault. The Outer Island fault as mapped in our seismic tomography model is a thrust fault that projects directly into the Lummi Island fault, suggesting that they are related structures forming a fault system that is continuous for nearly 90 km. Together, these inferred thrust faults may account for at least a portion of the basement uplift at the San Juan Islands.

British Columbia↗

Grand Canyon landslide-dam and paleolake triggered by the Meteor Crater impact at 56 ka

This paper hypothesizes that the Meteor Crater impact in Arizona, USA, 56,000 years ago triggered landslides in Grand Canyon that dammed the Colorado River and formed Nankoweap paleolake. This is compatible with shock and earthquake physics for the impact that infer a M5.4 seismic event, attenuated to an effective magnitude of M3.5 at Grand Canyon. Results that support the hypothesis include radiocarbon dating of driftwood and luminescence dating of associated slack-water lake sediments that are preserved in caves up to 60 m above the modern Colorado River. Radiocarbon ages from two locations, including Stanton’s Cave, date the driftwood as 55.25 ± 2.44 ka (n = 4). Sediments associated with the driftwood gave a luminescence age of 56.00 ± 6.39 ka (n = 2). These six Grand Canyon dates, and three published ages for the Meteor Crater impact, show statistically indistinguishable results that support the hypothesis for a geologically instantaneous series of events with a mean age of 55.60 ± 1.30 ka. This work highlights the value of radiocarbon dating near the limits of the technique, integration of multiple dating methods, and seismic and landslide hazards associated with meteorite impacts in regions of extreme topography like Grand Canyon.

Arizona↗

NOAA/West coast and Alaska Tsunami warning center Atlantic Ocean response criteria

West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakesoccurring in the Atlantic and Caribbean basins are presented. Initial warning center decisions are based on an earthquake's location, magnitude, depth, distance from coastal locations, and precomputed threat estimates based on tsunami models computed from similar events. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of sub-sea landslides).The new criteria require development of a threat data base which sets warning or advisory zones based on location, magnitude, and pre-computed tsunami models. The models determine coastal tsunami amplitudes based on likely tsunami source parameters for a given event. Based on the computed amplitude, warning and advisory zones are pre-set.

Science of Tsunami Hazards↗

Volcanologists and the geologic past

Were volcanologists to be asked why they study active volcanoes, they would list many reasons: to understand their dynamics, to use them as windows into the earth, to warn of hazards, to provide nearly real-time information on rates of various physical and chemical processes, and many others. Near the bottom of the list would be "to understand the Earth's past." Generally, that task has been left to other corners of the earth sciences, and volcanologists have kept their sights on the present or near present without worrying much about what happened millions of years ago. But much can be gained from applying a volcanologic perspective to the interpretation of old rocks, and this gain enhances our understanding of both the past and the present.

Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS)↗

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