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USGS2025

Benchmarking shoreline prediction models over multi-decadal timescales

Robust predictions of shoreline change are critical for sustainable coastal management. Despite advancements in shoreline models, objective benchmarking remains limited. Here we present results from ShoreShop2.0, an international collaborative benchmarking workshop, where 34 groups submitted shoreline change predictions in a blind competition. Subsets of shoreline observations at an undisclosed site (BeachX) over short (5-year) and medium (50-year) periods were withheld from modelers and used for model benchmarking. Using satellite-derived shoreline datasets for calibration and evaluation, the best performing models achieved prediction accuracies on the order of 10 m, comparable to the accuracy of the satellite shoreline data, indicating that certain beaches can be modelled nearly as well as they can be remotely observed. The outcomes from this collaborative benchmarking competition critically review the present state-of-the-art in shoreline change prediction as well as reveal model limitations, facilitate improvements, and offer insights for advancing shoreline-prediction capabilities.

New South Wales↗

USGS2021

Integrated geophysical imaging of rare-earth-element-bearing iron oxide-apatite deposits in the eastern Adirondack Highlands, New York

The eastern Adirondack Highlands of northern New York host dozens of iron oxide-apatite (IOA) deposits containing magnetite and rare earth element (REE)-bearing apatite. We use new aeromagnetic, aeroradiometric, ground gravity, and sample petrophysical and geochemical data to image and understand these deposits and their geologic framework. Aeromagnetic total field data reflect highly magnetic leucogranite host rock and major structures that likely served as fluid conduits for the hydrothermal system. Bandpass filtering of the aeromagnetic data reveals individual deposits that were verified in the field or from historical records. A three-dimensional inversion for magnetic susceptibility images these deposits at depth, allowing inference of plunge directions and relative size. Radiometric data highlight variations in the surface geology and several large tailings piles that contain REE-bearing apatite. Within the host rock, eTh (equivalent Th), K and the eTh/K ratio are variable with high eTh/K near several of the IOA deposits. Areas with elevated K or low eTh/K representing potassic alteration appear to be rare; instead elevated eTh/K ratios likely reflect widespread sodic alteration overprinting potassic alteration. Bouguer gravity anomalies show limited correspondence to the surface geology, radiometric data, or magnetic data, but do exhibit ~10-km wide highs in areas where deposits are observed. Two-dimensional forward models of the gravity and magnetic data show that deeper dense material beneath the leucogranite is quantitatively feasible. If these dense rocks represent intrusions that were emplaced or still cooling at the time of mineralization, they may have served as a heat source that helped to drive the hydrothermal system. Combining datasets, we find that deposits occur towards the distal ends of major structures within the host leucogranite and mostly above gravity highs. The geophysical modeling thus suggests that IOA deposits formed in structural, thermal, and chemical traps near the distal ends of the hydrothermal system.

New York↗

USGS2017

U-Pb ages and geochemistry of zircon from Proterozoic plutons of the Sawatch and Mosquito ranges, Colorado, U.S.A.: Implications for crustal growth of the central Colorado province

A broad study of zircons from plutonic rocks of the Sawatch and Mosquito ranges of west-central Colorado (U.S.A.) was undertaken to significantly refine the magmatic chronology and chemistry of this under-studied region of the Colorado province. This region was chosen because it lies just to the north of the suspected arc-related Gunnison-Salida volcano-plutonic terrane, which has been the subject of many recent investigations—and whose origin is still debated. Our new results provide important insights into the processes active during Proterozoic crustal evolution in this region, and they have important ramifications for broader-scope crustal evolution models for southwestern North America. Twenty-four new U-Pb ages and sequentially acquired rare-earth element (REE), U, Th, and Hf contents of zircon have been determined using the sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe-reverse geometry (SHRIMP-RG). These zircon geochemistry data, in conjunction with whole-rock major- and trace-element data, provide important insights into zircon crystallization and melt fractionation, and they help to further constrain the tectonic environment of magma generation. Our detailed zircon and whole-rock data support the following three interpretations: (1) The Roosevelt Granite in the southern Sawatch Range was the oldest rock dated at 1,766 ± 7 Ma, and it intruded various metavolcanic and metasedimentary rocks. Geochemistry of both whole-rock and zircon supports the contention that this granite was produced in a magmatic arc environment and, therefore, is likely an extension of the older Dubois Greenstone Belt of the Gunnison Igneous Complex (GIC) and the Needle Mountains (1,770–1,755 Ma). Rocks of the younger Cochetopa succession of the GIC, the Salida Greenstone Belt, and the Sangre de Cristo Mountains (1,740–1,725 Ma) were not found in the Sawatch and Mosquito ranges. This observation strongly suggests that the northern edge of the Gunnison-Salida arc terrane underlies the southern portion of the Sawatch and Mosquito ranges. (2) Calc-alkalic to alkali-calcic magmas intruded this region approximately 55 m.y. after the Roosevelt Granite with emplacement of pre-deformational plutons at ca. 1,710 Ma (e.g., Henry Mountain Granite and diorite of Denny Creek), and this continued for at least 30 m.y., ending with emplacement of post-deformational plutons at ca. 1,680 Ma (e.g., Kroenke Granodiorite, granite of Fairview Peak, and syenite of Mount Yale). The timing of deformation can be constrained to sometime after intrusion of the diorite of Denny Creek and likely before the emplacement of the undeformed granite of Fairview Peak. Geochemistry of both whole-rock and zircon indicates that the older group of ca. 1,710-Ma plutons formed at shallower depths, and then they intruded the younger group of more deeply generated, commonly peraluminous and sodic plutons. Although absent in the Sawatch and Mosquito ranges, Mazatzal-age (ca. 1,680–1,620 Ma) plutonic rocks are present regionally. Inherited zircon components of Mazatzal-age were found as cores in some 1.4-Ga Sawatch and Mosquito Range zircons, indicating the likelihood of a relatively local source. These combined data suggest the possibility that all were produced within a continental-margin magmatic arc created as a result of southward-migrating (slab rollback?), north-dipping subduction to the south of the region. (3) Widespread Mesoproterozoic plutonism—with emplacement at various depths and exhibiting bimodal geochemistry—is recognized in 16 different samples. An older group of predominantly peraluminous, yet magnesian granitoids (e.g., granodiorite of Sayers, granite of Taylor River, and the St. Kevin Granite) were emplaced between ca. 1,450 and 1,425 Ma. These geochemical parameters suggest moderate degrees of partial melting in a low-pressure environment. Three younger metaluminous, but ferroan plutons (diorite of Grottos, diorite of Mount Elbert, and granodiorite of Mount Harvard), probably represent a final magmatic pulse at ca. 1,416 Ma. A comprehensive treatment of zircon REE and whole-rock trace-element behavior from Proterozoic rocks is scarce. Discriminant U/Yb versus Y diagrams using zircon data show that the Sawatch and Mosquito plutons are of continental origin, not oceanic. Additional bivariate diagrams incorporating cation ratio combinations of Gd, Ce, Yb, U, Th, Hf, and Eu offer refined insight into differences in fractionation trends and depth of magma generation for the various plutons. These interpretations, on the basis of zircon trace-element data, are mirrored in the whole-rock geochemistry data.

Colorado↗

USGS2019

FLUXNET-CH4 synthesis activity: Objectives, observations, and future directions

This paper describes the formation of, and initial results for, a new FLUXNET coordination network for ecosystem-scale methane (CH 4 ) measurements at 60 sites globally, organized by the Global Carbon Project in partnership with other initiatives and regional flux tower networks. The objectives of the effort are presented along with an overview of the coverage of eddy covariance (EC) CH 4 flux measurements globally, initial results comparing CH 4 fluxes across the sites, and future research directions and needs. Annual estimates of net CH 4 fluxes across sites ranged from −0.2 ± 0.02 g C m –2 yr –1 for an upland forest site to 114.9 ± 13.4 g C m –2 yr –1 for an estuarine freshwater marsh, with fluxes exceeding 40 g C m –2 yr –1 at multiple sites. Average annual soil and air temperatures were found to be the strongest predictor of annual CH 4 flux across wetland sites globally. Water table position was positively correlated with annual CH 4 emissions, although only for wetland sites that were not consistently inundated throughout the year. The ratio of annual CH 4 fluxes to ecosystem respiration increased significantly with mean site temperature. Uncertainties in annual CH 4 estimates due to gap-filling and random errors were on average ±1.6 g C m –2 yr –1 at 95% confidence, with the relative error decreasing exponentially with increasing flux magnitude across sites. Through the analysis and synthesis of a growing EC CH 4 flux database, the controls on ecosystem CH 4 fluxes can be better understood, used to inform and validate Earth system models, and reconcile differences between land surface model- and atmospheric-based estimates of CH 4 emissions.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗

USGS1998

Evolution of cutoffs across meander necks in Powder River, Montana, USA

Over a period of several decades, gullies have been observed in various stages of forming, growing and completing the cutoff of meander necks in Powder River. During one episode of overbank flow, water flowing over the down-stream bank of the neck forms a headctu. The headcut migrates up-valley, forming a gully in its wake, until it has traversed the entire neck, cutting off the meander. The river then follows the course of the gully, which is subsequently enlarged as the river develops its new channel. The complete process usually requires several episodes of high water: in only one of the five cases described herein was a meander cutoff initiated and completed during a single large flood.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗

USGS2014

The impact of static stress change, dynamic stress change, and the background stress on aftershock focal mechanisms

The focal mechanisms of earthquakes in Southern California before and after four M  ≥ 6.7 main shocks provide insight into how fault systems respond to stress and changes in stress. The main shock static stress changes have two observed impacts on the seismicity: changing the focal mechanisms in a given location to favor those aligned with the static stress change and changing the spatial distribution of seismicity to favor locations where the static stress change aligns with the background stress. The aftershock focal mechanisms are significantly aligned with the static stress changes for absolute stress changes of ≥ 0.02 MPa, for up to ~20 years following the main shock. The dynamic stress changes have similar, although smaller, effects on the local focal mechanisms and the spatial seismicity distribution. Dynamic stress effects are best observed at long periods (30–60 s) and for metrics based on repeated stress cycling in the same direction. This implies that dynamic triggering operates, at least in part, through cyclic shear stress loading in the direction of fault slip. The background stress also strongly controls both the preshock and aftershock mechanisms. While most aftershock mechanisms are well oriented in the background stress field, 10% of aftershocks are identified as poorly oriented outliers, which may indicate limited heterogeneity in the postmain shock stress field. The fault plane orientations of the outliers are well oriented in the background stress, while their slip directions are not, implying that the background stress restricts the distribution of available fault planes.

California↗

USGS2012

Scaling the Teflon Peaks: Rock type and the generation of extreme relief in the glaciated western Alaska Range

Parts of the Alaska Range (Alaska, USA) stand in prominent exception to the “glacial buzzsaw hypothesis,” which postulates that terrain raised above the ELA is rapidly denuded by glaciers. In this paper, we discuss the role of a strong contrast in rock type in the development of this exceptional terrain. Much of the range is developed on pervasively fractured flysch, with local relief of 1000–1500 m, and mean summit elevations that are similar to modern snow line elevations. In contrast, Cretaceous and Tertiary plutons of relatively intact granite support the range's tallest mountains (including Mt. McKinley, or Denali, at 6194 m), with 2500–5000 m of local relief. The high granitic peaks protrude well above modern snow lines and support many large glaciers. We focus on the plutons of the Denali massif and the Kichatna Mountains, to the west. We use field observations, satellite photos, and digital elevation data to demonstrate how exhumation of these plutons affects glacier longitudinal profiles, the glacial drainage network, and the effectiveness of periglacial processes. In strong granite, steep, smooth valley walls are maintained by detachment of rock slabs along sheeting joints. These steep walls act as low-friction surfaces (“Teflon”), efficiently shedding snow. Simple scaling calculations show that this avalanching may greatly enhance the health of the modern glaciers. We conclude that, in places such as Denali, unusual combinations of rapid tectonic uplift and great rock strength have created the highest relief in North America by enhancing glacial erosion in the valleys while preserving the peaks.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

Paleomagnetism of the Tertiary Clarno Formation of central Oregon and its significance for the tectonic history of the Pacific Northwest

The Clarno Formation, a mostly Eocene and partly early Oligocene sequence of andesitic lavas and volcaniclastic rocks, is the oldest Tertiary formation exposed in north central Oregon. Remanent magnetization directions at 46 sites in the lavas provide a paleomagnetic pole at 84°N, 278°E with a 95% confidence cone of 7°. Comparison of this pole with the North American reference pole for Eocene time indicates that the Clarno Formation has rotated 16° clockwise with an uncertainty of 10° but has undergone no significant latitudinal displacement. Further comparison with paleomagnetic data from the Miocene Columbia River Basalt Group and Steens Basalt shows that large‐scale block rotations in the eastern Columbia Embayment ceased sometime between 38 m.y. and 15 m.y. A paleogeographic reconstruction for 38 m.y. is offered which is consistent with the observed rotation of the Clarno and with the other paleomagnetic data from the Pacific Northwest, which are briefly reviewed. This reconstruction shows that it is possible to account for virtually all of the paleomagnetically indicated rotations in pre‐Miocene Tertiary rocks of the Pacific Northwest by an extensional tectonic model. As a consequence, only part of the rotations in the pre‐Tertiary rocks of the eastern Columbia Embayment need to be the result of accretionary tectonics. The initiation of magmatism in the eastern Columbia Embayment that is represented by the Clarno Formation itself may have been contemporaneous with the beginning of crustal extension in the Pacific Northwest.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2017

Geomorphic process from topographic form: automating the interpretation of repeat survey data in river valleys

The ability to quantify the processes driving geomorphic change in river valley margins is vital to geomorphologists seeking to understand the relative role of transport mechanisms (e.g. fluvial, aeolian, and hillslope processes) in landscape dynamics. High-resolution, repeat topographic data are becoming readily available to geomorphologists. By contrasting digital elevation models derived from repeat surveys, the transport processes driving topographic changes can be inferred, a method termed ‘mechanistic segregation.’ Unfortunately, mechanistic segregation largely relies on subjective and time consuming manual classification, which has implications both for its reproducibility and the practical scale of its application. Here we present a novel computational workflow for the mechanistic segregation of geomorphic transport processes in geospatial datasets. We apply the workflow to seven sites along the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon, where geomorphic transport is driven by a diverse suite of mechanisms. The workflow performs well when compared to field observations, with an overall predictive accuracy of 84% across 113 validation points. The approach most accurately predicts changes due to fluvial processes (100% accuracy) and aeolian processes (96%), with reduced accuracy in predictions of alluvial and colluvial processes (64% and 73%, respectively). Our workflow is designed to be applicable to a diversity of river systems and will likely provide a rapid and objective understanding of the processes driving geomorphic change at the reach and network scales. We anticipate that such an understanding will allow insight into the response of geomorphic transport processes to external forcings, such as shifts in climate, land use, or river regulation, with implications for process-based river management and restoration.

Arizona, Colorado↗

USGS2002

Response of the San Andreas fault to the 1983 Coalinga-Nuñez earthquakes: an application of interaction-based probabilities for Parkfield

The Parkfield-Cholame section of the San Andreas fault, site of an unfulfilled earthquake forecast in 1985, is the best monitored section of the world's most closely watched fault. In 1983, the M = 6.5 Coalinga and M = 6.0 Nuñez events struck 25 km northeast of Parkfield. Seismicity rates climbed for 18 months along the creeping section of the San Andreas north of Parkfield and dropped for 6 years along the locked section to the south. Right-lateral creep also slowed or reversed from Parkfield south. Here we calculate that the Coalinga sequence increased the shear and Coulomb stress on the creeping section, causing the rate of small shocks to rise until the added stress was shed by additional slip. However, the 1983 events decreased the shear and Coulomb stress on the Parkfield segment, causing surface creep and seismicity rates to drop. We use these observations to cast the likelihood of a Parkfield earthquake into an interaction-based probability, which includes both the renewal of stress following the 1966 Parkfield earthquake and the stress transfer from the 1983 Coalinga events. We calculate that the 1983 shocks dropped the 10-year probability of a M &sim; 6 Parkfield earthquake by 22% (from 54 ± 22% to 42 ± 23%) and that the probability did not recover until about 1991, when seismicity and creep resumed. Our analysis may thus explain why the Parkfield earthquake did not strike in the 1980s, but not why it was absent in the 1990s. We calculate a 58 ± 17% probability of a M &sim; 6 Parkfield earthquake during 2001–2011.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2018

Airborne bacteria in Earth’s lower stratosphere resemble taxa detected in the troposphere: results from a new NASA aircraft bioaerosol collector (ABC)

Airborne microorganisms in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere remain elusive due to a lack of reliable sample collection systems. To address this problem, we designed, installed, and flight-validated a novel Aircraft Bioaerosol Collector (ABC) for NASA's C-20A that can make collections for microbiological research investigations up to altitudes of 13.7 km. Herein we report results from the first set of science flights—four consecutive missions flown over the United States (US) from 30 October to 2 November, 2017. To ascertain how the concentration of airborne bacteria changed across the tropopause, we collected air during aircraft Ascent / Descent (0.3 to 11 km), as well as sustained Cruise altitudes in the lower stratosphere (~12 km). Bioaerosols were captured on DNA-treated gelatinous filters inside a cascade air sampler, then analyzed with molecular and culture-based characterization. Several viable bacterial isolates were recovered from flight altitudes, including Bacillus sp., Micrococcus sp., Arthrobacter sp., and Staphylococcus sp. from Cruise samples and Brachybacterium sp. from Ascent/Descent samples. Using 16S V4 sequencing methods for a culture-independent analysis of bacteria, the average number of total OTUs was 305 for Cruise samples and 276 for Ascent/Descent samples. Some taxa were more abundant in the flight samples than the ground samples, including OTUs from families Lachnospiraceae, Ruminococcaceae and Erysipelotrichaceae as well as the following genera: Clostridium, Mogibacterium, Corynebacterium, Bacteroides, Prevotella, Pseudomonas , and Parabacteroides . Surprisingly, our results revealed a homogeneous distribution of bacteria in the atmosphere up to 12 km. The observation could be due to atmospheric conditions producing similar background aerosols across the western US, as suggested by modeled back trajectories and satellite measurements. However, the influence of aircraft-associated bacterial contaminants could not be fully eliminated and that background signal was reported throughout our dataset. Considering the tremendous engineering challenge of collecting biomass at extreme altitudes where contamination from flight hardware remains an ever-present issue, we note the utility of using the stratosphere as a proving ground for planned life detection missions across the solar system.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS2015

Geochemical and mineralogical characteristics of REE in granite-derived regolith: a model for the Southeast United States

Rare earth element (REE) ion-adsorption clay deposits are of global economic importance because they currently supply a significant portion of the world’s annual production of both light (LREE) and heavy REE (HREE). There is considerable ambiguity regarding the origin of this deposit type: The main criteria include the presence of large, generally granitic, igneous suites; long periods of intense weathering with little subsequent erosion; and evidence for mobility of REE within the regolith. Granitic rocks of the southeastern United States have been subjected to a long history of chemical weathering, comparable to that of South China, an area which contains many REE clay deposits. Detailed comparisons of weathered bedrock-soil profiles for large masses of granitic rocks as exemplified by the Stewartsville, Striped Rock, and Liberty Hill plutons, USA, indicate that REE are mobile within many regolith profiles and locally can attain grades comparable to mined deposits of South China. Primary accessory mineralogy, modal content, and element redistribution as a result of weathering are identified as distinguishing factors in mobility-related enrichment of REE in the regolith profiles. Only limited geochemical separation of REE was observed within profiles, which suggests the importance of source rock composition and mineralogy in the initial distribution of extractable REE in the regolith. Retention of extractable HREE was favored over LREE, Th and U within most of the studied profiles.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2012

Chemistry of hydrothermal solutions from the southern Juan de Fuca Ridge

Fluids from three vent fields on the southern Juan de Fuca Ridge were sampled in September 1984 using the DSRV Alvin. The fluids are uniquely high in both chloride, which ranges up to twice the seawater value, and in metal content. Simple vapor-liquid phase separation could not have produced both the high chlorinity and gas concentrations observed in these fluids. The cause of the elevated chlorinity can not be uniquely identified but may be the result of either or a combination of two processes: (1) subsurface formation of a degassed brine and subsequent mixing of a small amount of this brine with a hydrothermal seawater which has not undergone a phase separation and (2) dissolution of a chloride-rich phase combined with a possible small loss of gas during sampling procedures. Although measured temperatures were all less than 300°C, quartz geothermometry suggests that the fluids have equilibrated at greater than 340°C. Quartz geobarometry is also in agreement with geophysical estimates of depth to the local magma chamber.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2025

Changes in aeolian saltation cloud properties with wind speed and ripples

Aeolian sediment transport shapes landscapes on Earth and other planetary surfaces, yet key uncertainties remain in how the near-bed saltation cloud responds to changing wind and surface conditions. Leveraging recent advances in image-based particle tracking, we conducted wind tunnel experiments using high-speed imaging and Particle Tracking Velocimetry to quantify sand grain trajectories in saturated saltation clouds over both flat and rippled beds. Our open-source PTV workflow resolved particle motions within millimeters of the bed across a range of wind speeds. Supporting previous results, we find that mean particle velocities do not scale linearly with wind speed; instead, changes in particle velocity distributions—including skewness and kurtosis—emerge as wind strength and sediment flux increase. At higher transport rates, distinctions among saltation, reptation, and creep within the particle distribution become more smoothed, suggesting a continuum spectrum of particle behavior rather than discrete transport modes. Our new dataset of particle trajectories over an active rippled bed shows distinctions in particle speed across the aspects. On ripple stoss slopes, fast saltating grains co-occur with slow creeping particles, while lee slopes are depleted of slower grains, consistent with shadowing effects. These observations support a feedback between ripple morphology and near-bed particle trajectories, with implications for how splash events redistribute sediment momentum. This study contributes new high-resolution empirical data that illuminate how saltation cloud structure evolves with wind forcing and bedform development, advancing our understanding of aeolian sediment transport under complex, dynamic conditions.

Aeolian Research↗

USGS1997

Sensitivity of greenhouse summer dryness to changes in plant rooting characteristics

A possible consequence of increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere is “summer dryness,” a decrease of summer plant-available soil water in middle latitudes, caused by increased availability of energy to drive evapotranspiration. Results from a numerical climate model indicate that summer dryness and related changes of land-surface water balances are highly sensitive to possible concomitant changes of plant-available water-holding capacity of soil, which depends on plant rooting depth and density. The model suggests that a 14% decrease of the soil volume whose water is accessible to plant roots would generate the same summer dryness, by one measure, as an equilibrium doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Conversely, a 14% increase of that soil volume would be sufficient to offset the summer dryness associated with carbon-dioxide doubling. Global and regional changes in rooting depth and density may result from (1) plant and plant-community responses to greenhouse warming, to carbon-dioxide fertilization, and to associated changes in the water balance and (2) anthropogenic deforestation and desertification. Given their apparently critical role, heretofore ignored, in global hydroclimatic change, such changes of rooting characteristics should be carefully evaluated using ecosystem observations, theory, and models.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS1981

234U and 238U concentration in brine from geopressured aquifers of the northern Gulf of Mexico basin

The 234 U and 238 U concentration in brine from six Gulf Coast geopressured aquifers has been determined. The results reveal very low uranium concentrations (from 0.003 to 0.03 μg/l) and uranium activity ratios slightly greater than unity (from 1.06 to 1.62). Reducing conditions within the aquifers are responsible for the low uranium concentrations. The uranium activity ratios observed are well below those calculated using theoretical considerations of alpha-particle recoil effects. This can be explained by interference with alpha-recoil nuclides entering the liquid phase as a result of quartz overgrowths on sand grains and high-temperature re-equilibration that tends to minimize the effects of the alpha-recoil process. The fact that the uranium activity ratios of the brines are slightly greater than unity instead of the equilibrium value of 1.000 indicates that either the alpha particle recoil blocking and re-equlibration effects are not complete or that another process is operative that enriches the fluid in excess 234 U by selectively removing uranium from radiation induced damage sites in the mineral (sand grain) matrix.

Louisiana, Texas↗

USGS2020

Geometric and material variability influences stress states relevant to coastal permafrost bluff failure

Scientific knowledge and engineering tools for predicting coastal erosion are largely confined to temperate climate zones that are dominated by non-cohesive sediments. The pattern of erosion exhibited by the ice-bonded permafrost bluffs in Arctic Alaska, however, is not well explained by these tools. Investigation of the oceanographic, thermal, and mechanical processes that are relevant to permafrost bluff failure along Arctic coastlines is needed. We conducted physics-based numerical simulations of mechanical response that focus on the impact of geometric and material variability on permafrost bluff stress states for a coastal setting in Arctic Alaska that is prone to toppling mode block failure. Our three-dimensional geomechanical boundary-value problems output static realizations of compressive and tensile stresses. We use these results to quantify variability in the loci of potential instability. We observe that niche dimension affects the location and magnitude of the simulated maximum tensile stress more strongly than the bluff height, ice wedge polygon size, ice wedge geometry, bulk density, Young’s Modulus, and Poisson’s Ratio. Our simulations indicate that variations in niche dimension can produce radically different potential failure areas and that even relatively shallow vertical cracks can concentrate displacement within ice-bonded permafrost bluffs. These findings suggest that stability assessment approaches, for which the geometry of the failure plane is delineated a priori, may not be ideal for coastlines similar to our study area and could hamper predictions of erosion rates and nearshore sediment/biogeochemical loading.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗

USGS2021

Determination of vadose zone and saturated zone nitrate lag times using long-term groundwater monitoring data and statistical machine learning

In this study, we explored the use of statistical machine learning and long-term groundwater nitrate monitoring data to estimate vadose zone and saturated zone lag times in an irrigated alluvial agricultural setting. Unlike most previous statistical machine learning studies that sought to predict groundwater nitrate concentrations within aquifers, the focus of this study was to leverage available groundwater nitrate concentrations and other environmental variables to determine mean regional vertical velocities (transport rates) of water and solutes in the vadose zone and saturated zone (3.50 and 3.75 m yr −1 , respectively). The statistical machine learning results are consistent with two primary recharge processes in this western Nebraska aquifer, namely ( 1 ) diffuse recharge from irrigation and precipitation across the landscape and ( 2 ) focused recharge from leaking irrigation conveyance canals. The vadose zone mean velocity yielded a mean recharge rate (0.46 m yr −1 ) consistent with previous estimates from groundwater age dating in shallow wells (0.38 m yr −1 ). The saturated zone mean velocity yielded a recharge rate (1.31 m yr −1 ) that was more consistent with focused recharge from leaky irrigation canals, as indicated by previous results of groundwater age dating in intermediate-depth wells (1.22 m yr −1 ). Collectively, the statistical machine learning model results are consistent with previous observations of relatively high water fluxes and short transit times for water and nitrate in the primarily oxic aquifer. Partial dependence plots from the model indicate a sharp threshold in which high groundwater nitrate concentrations are mostly associated with total travel times of 7 years or less, possibly reflecting some combination of recent management practices and a tendency for nitrate concentrations to be higher in diffuse infiltration recharge than in canal leakage water. Limitations to the machine learning approach include the non-uniqueness of different transport rate combinations when comparing model performance and highlight the need to corroborate statistical model results with a robust conceptual model and complementary information such as groundwater age.

Nebraska↗

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