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At least 1,801 records · Page 100Linked to original sources
USGS2003

Estimating water temperatures in small streams in western Oregon using neural network models

Artificial neural network models were developed to estimate water temperatures in small streams using data collected at 148 sites throughout western Oregon from June to September 1999. The sites were located on 1st-, 2nd-, or 3rd-order streams having undisturbed or minimally disturbed conditions. Data collected at each site for model development included continuous hourly water temperature and description of riparian habitat. Additional data pertaining to the landscape characteristics of the basins upstream of the sites were assembled using geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Hourly meteorological time series data collected at 25 locations within the study region also were assembled. Clustering analysis was used to partition 142 sites into 3 groups. Separate models were developed for each group. The riparian habitat, basin characteristic, and meteorological time series data were independent variables and water temperature time series were dependent variables to the models, respectively. Approximately one-third of the data vectors were used for model training, and the remaining two-thirds were used for model testing. Critical input variables included riparian shade, site elevation, and percentage of forested area of the basin. Coefficient of determination and root mean square error for the models ranged from 0.88 to 0.99 and 0.05 to 0.59 oC, respectively. The models also were tested and validated using temperature time series, habitat, and basin landscape data from 6 sites that were separate from the 142 sites that were used to develop the models. The models are capable of estimating water temperatures at locations along 1st-, 2nd-, and 3rd-order streams in western Oregon. The model user must assemble riparian habitat and basin landscape characteristics data for a site of interest. These data, in addition to meteorological data, are model inputs. Output from the models include simulated hourly water temperatures for the June to September period. Adjustments can be made to the shade input data to simulate the effects of minimum or maximum shade on water temperatures.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2023

Predicted distribution of ‘ua‘u (Hawaiian petrel Pterodroma sandwichensis) nest sites on Haleakalā, Maui

Haleakalā National Park and montane areas on east Maui, Hawaiian Archipelago, support critical nesting habitat for endangered ‘ua‘u Hawaiian petrel Pterodroma sandwichensis . Habitat loss, non-native predators, and damage by feral ungulates are limiting factors for ground-nesting petrels at Haleakalā and throughout Hawai‘i. Because nesting habitats differ among the Hawaiian Islands, habitat distribution modeling for Hawaiian petrel has been island specific. Based on 2453 known nest site locations, we provide the first landscape-scale predictive model describing relative abundance and habitat available for nesting petrels throughout upper Haleakalā (1830 to 3055 m). We evaluated (principal components analyses and Pearson’s correlation) 13 spatial landscape and climate predictor variables associated with nest sites and the background landscape followed by random forest modeling to predict nest site density. Six variables (elevation, slope, topographic position index at 2 scales, heat load index, presence-absence ash/cinder, and presence-absence vegetation) indicated nest sites occurred non-randomly throughout the central part of the summit and crater; greatest concentrations were predicted along the crater rim and a ridgeline extending southwest from the summit. Moderately high predicted density occurred in the northeastern and northern crater. Lower elevations to the north, west, and south flanks of Haleakalā had relatively fewer predicted nest sites. Although we focused on higher elevations on Haleakalā, there is no reason to suspect that conservation efforts would not be successful at lower elevations, provided nesting petrels were protected from invasive predators, grazing ungulates, and significant land alteration.

Hawaii↗
USGS2023

Seasonal abundance and habitat associations of American Kestrels on the Southern High Plains of Texas

American Kestrel ( Falco sparverius ) populations are generally declining across the species' North American distribution but the population in the Southern High Plains region currently appears to be stable. Historical evidence suggests the region formerly had a low abundance of kestrels, and that their current numbers are due to landscape changes associated with European settlement. We conducted monthly surveys for American Kestrels across 2 yr to estimate seasonal densities and identify land cover associations in the Southern High Plains of Texas. We found an overall estimated density of 0.99 birds/km 2 (95% CI = 0.406, 1.582) across the 2-yr period, with seasonal estimated densities highest in autumn and winter (0.92–2.53/ km 2 ), and lowest in spring (0.49–0.67/km 2 ). Whereas other studies have found that temperature influenced detection of wintering kestrels, we found an interaction of drought conditions and snow most strongly influenced the number of kestrels in our study area. Kestrels largely used land cover types in proportion to availability but there was some evidence of seasonal shifts. Generally, they tended to avoid cotton fields and sometimes selected for areas with woodlots, abandoned or occupied houses, and barns, all of which likely provided nesting and roosting opportunities. Our study provides the first contemporary assessment of seasonal abundance and habitat associations of American Kestrels in the Southern High Plains, where their presence and abundance has been unintentionally facilitated by landscape changes following settlement. We provide a baseline for population monitoring and studies assessing response to additional landscape changes (e.g., development of wind energy facilities) and a changing climate.

Journal of Raptor Research↗
USGS2019

Climate, environment, and disturbance history govern resilience of western North American Forests

Before the advent of intensive forest management and fire suppression, western North American forests exhibited a naturally occurring resistance and resilience to wildfires and other disturbances. Resilience, which encompasses resistance, reflects the amount of disruption an ecosystem can withstand before its structure or organization qualitatively shift to a different basin of attraction. In fire-maintained forests, resilience to disturbance events arose primarily from vegetation pattern-disturbance process interactions at several levels of organization. Using evidence from 15 ecoregions, spanning forests from Canada to Mexico, we review the properties of forests that reinforced qualities of resilience and resistance. We show examples of multi-level landscape resilience, of feedbacks within and among levels, and how conditions have changed under climatic and management influences. We highlight geographic similarities and important differences in the structure and organization of historical landscapes, their forest types, and in the conditions that have changed resilience and resistance to abrupt or large-scale disruptions. We discuss the role of the regional climate in episodically or abruptly reorganizing plant and animal biogeography and forest resilience and resistance to disturbances. We give clear examples of these changes and suggest that managing for resilient forests is a construct that strongly depends on scale and human social values. It involves human communities actively working with the ecosystems they depend on, and the processes that shape them, to adapt landscapes, species, and human communities to climate change while maintaining core ecosystem processes and services. Finally, it compels us to embrace management approaches that incorporate ongoing disturbances and anticipated effects of climatic changes, and to support dynamically shifting patchworks of forest and non-forest. Doing so could make these shifting forest conditions and wildfire regimes less disruptive to individuals and society.

western North America↗
USGS2022

Golden eagle occupancy surveys and monitoring strategy in coastal southern California, United States

Golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) are of increasing conservation concern in western North America. Effective conservation measures for this wide-ranging, federally protected raptor species require monitoring frameworks that accommodate strong inference on the status of breeding populations across vast landscapes. We used a broad-scale sampling design to identify relationships between landscape conditions, detection rates, and site occupancy by territorial pairs of golden eagles in coastal southern California, United States. In 2016 and 2017, we surveyed 175 territory-sized sample sites (13.9-km 2 randomly selected grid cells) up to four times each year and detected a pair of eagles at least once in 22 (12.6%) sites. The probability of detecting pairs of eagles varied substantially between years and declined with increasing amounts of forest cover at survey sites, which obscured observations of eagles during ground-based surveys. After accounting for variable detection, the mean estimate of expected site occupancy by eagle pairs was 0.156 (SE = 0.081). Site-level estimates of occupancy were greatest (>0.30) at sample sites with more rugged terrain conditions, <20% human development, and lower amounts of scrubland vegetation cover. The proportion of a sample site with open grassland or forest cover was not strongly correlated with occupancy. We estimated that approximately 16% of the 5,338-km 2 sampling frame was used by resident pairs of golden eagles, corresponding to a sparsely distributed population of about 60 pairs (95% CI = 19 – 151 pairs). Our study provided baseline data for future surveys of golden eagles along with a widely applicable monitoring framework for identifying spatial conservation priorities in urbanizing landscapes.

California↗
USGS2015

How spatio-temporal habitat connectivity affects amphibian genetic structure

Heterogeneous landscapes and fluctuating environmental conditions can affect species dispersal, population genetics, and genetic structure, yet understanding how biotic and abiotic factors affect population dynamics in a fluctuating environment is critical for species management. We evaluated how spatio-temporal habitat connectivity influences dispersal and genetic structure in a population of boreal chorus frogs ( Pseudacris maculata ) using a landscape genetics approach. We developed gravity models to assess the contribution of various factors to the observed genetic distance as a measure of functional connectivity. We selected (a) wetland (within-site) and (b) landscape matrix (between-site) characteristics; and (c) wetland connectivity metrics using a unique methodology. Specifically, we developed three networks that quantify wetland connectivity based on: (i) P. maculata dispersal ability, (ii) temporal variation in wetland quality, and (iii) contribution of wetland stepping-stones to frog dispersal. We examined 18 wetlands in Colorado, and quantified 12 microsatellite loci from 322 individual frogs. We found that genetic connectivity was related to topographic complexity, within- and between-wetland differences in moisture, and wetland functional connectivity as contributed by stepping-stone wetlands. Our results highlight the role that dynamic environmental factors have on dispersal-limited species and illustrate how complex asynchronous interactions contribute to the structure of spatially-explicit metapopulations.

Colorado↗
USGS2022

Presence of the herbaceous marsh species Schoenoplectus americanus enhances surface elevation gain in transitional coastal wetland communities exposed to elevated CO2 and sediment deposition events

Coastal wetlands are dynamic ecosystems that exist along a landscape continuum that can range from freshwater forested wetlands to tidal marsh to mudflat communities. Climate-driven stressors, such as sea-level rise, can cause shifts among these communities, resulting in changes to ecological functions and services. While a growing body of research has characterized the landscape-scale impacts of individual climate-driven stressors, little is known about how multiple stressors and their potential interactions will affect ecological functioning of these ecosystems. How will coastal wetlands respond to discrete climate disturbances, such as hurricane sediment deposition events, under future conditions of elevated atmospheric CO 2 ? Will these responses vary among the different wetland communities? We conducted experimental greenhouse manipulations to simulate sediment deposition from a land-falling hurricane under future elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (720 ppm CO 2 ). We measured responses of net primary production, decomposition, and elevation change in mesocosms representing four communities along a coastal wetland landscape gradient: freshwater forested wetland, forest/marsh mix, marsh, and mudflat. When Schoenoplectus americanus was present, above- and belowground biomass production was highest, decomposition rates were lowest, and wetland elevation gain was greatest, regardless of CO 2 and sediment deposition treatments. Sediment addition initially increased elevation capital in all communities, but post-deposition rates of elevation gain were lower than in mesocosms without added sediment. Together these results indicate that encroachment of oligohaline marshes into freshwater forested wetlands can enhance belowground biomass accumulation and resilience to sea-level rise, and these plant-mediated ecosystem services will be augmented by periodic sediment pulses from storms and restoration efforts.

Plants↗
USGS2021

Satellite-derived barrier response and recovery following natural and anthropogenic perturbations, northern Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana

The magnitude and frequency of storm events, relative sea-level rise (RSLR), sediment supply, and anthropogenic alterations drive the morphologic evolution of barrier island systems, although the relative importance of any one driver will vary with the spatial and temporal scales considered. To explore the relative contributions of storms and human alterations to sediment supply on de-cadal changes in barrier landscapes, we applied Otsu’s thresholding method to multiple satel-lite-derived spectral indices for coastal land-cover classification and analyzed Landsat satellite imagery to quantify changes to the northern Chandeleur Islands barrier system since 1984. This high temporal-resolution dataset shows decadal-scale land-cover oscillations related to storm–recovery cycles, suggesting that shorter and (or) less resolved time series are biased toward storm impacts and may significantly overpredict land-loss rates and the timing of barrier mor-phologic state changes. We demonstrate that, historically, vegetation extent and persistence were the dominant controls on alongshore-variable landscape response and recovery following storms, and are even more important than human-mediated sediment input. As a result of exten-sive vegetation losses over the past few decades, however, the northern Chandeleur Islands are transitioning to a new morphologic state in which the landscape is dominated by intertidal envi-ronments, indicating reduced resilience to future storms and possibly rapid transitions in mor-phologic state with increasing rates of RSLR.

Louisiana↗
USGS2025

U.S. national park units as breeding bird habitat: A comparison of species prevalence and land cover across the midwestern and central United States

The value of national parks as bird habitat depends not only on local conditions within the parks, but also on the landscape habitat matrices in which they are located. However, the influences of local and landscape habitat matrices on birds vary by species and have not been quantified. Similarly, the trends of land cover types through time have not been systematically quantified for Midwest Region national parks and the landscapes around them, despite evidence of ongoing habitat loss exacerbated by climate change and human population growth. Managers and policy makers can use this information to understand and sustain the contribution of parks to our Nation’s avifauna. We developed models using North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data collected on routes from across the central United States. The models were used to predict occupancy of bird species of concern in 32 national park units across nine Bird Conservation Regions in the Midwest based on land cover in and around those parks. We then compared these predictions with data collected through National Park Service (NPS) bird surveys at each park to determine if bird species of concern were more or less prevalent than expected. In each park, the mean difference between observed species detections and mean predicted detections indicates that most species are less frequently detected in the parks than predicted. However, when the range of uncertainty of predictions is considered, only 21% of park-bird combinations showed strong evidence (95%) of differing from expectation. Of these, species were less common than expected in the park in all but two cases. These results indicate that some bird species of concern occupy sites in Midwest Region national park units at a rate roughly comparable to sites with similar land cover in the Bird Conservation Region (BCR) in which they occur. However, for one in five species-park combinations, parks appear to be less occupied than comparable sites elsewhere.

Midwest region↗
USGS2011

Secretive marsh aird species co-eccurrences and habitat associations across the midwest, USA

Because secretive marsh birds are difficult to detect, population status and habitat use for these birds are not well known. We conducted repeated surveys for secretive marsh birds across 264 sites in the Upper Mississippi River and Great Lakes Joint Venture region to estimate abundance, occupancy, and detection probabilities during the 2008 and 2009 breeding seasons. We identified species groups based on observed species co-occurrences. Two species, least bittern Ixobrychus exilis and American bittern Botaurus lentiginosus , co-occurred with other species less often than expected by chance, and two species groups, rails (Virginia rail Rallus limicola and sora Porzana carolina ) and open-water birds (pied-billed grebe Podilymbus podiceps , common moorhen Gallinula chloropus , and American coot Fulica americana ; coots were only surveyed in 2009), co-occurred more often than expected by chance. These groupings were consistent between years. We then estimated the relation of these species and groups to landscape and local site characteristics by using zero-inflated abundance models that accounted for incomplete detection. At the landscape level (5-km radius), the amount of emergent herbaceous wetland was positively associated with least bittern occupancy, whereas the amount of woody wetland was negatively associated with least bittern, rail, and open-water bird occupancy. At the local level, habitat variables that were associated with abundance were not consistent among groups or between years, with the exception that both least bitterns and open-water birds had a strong positive association between abundance and water-vegetation interspersion. Land managers interested in marsh bird management or conservation may want to consider focusing efforts on landscapes with high amounts of emergent herbaceous wetland and low amounts of woody wetland, and managing for high amounts of water-vegetation interspersion within the wetland.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2018

Limits to ponderosa pine regeneration following large high-severity forest fires in the United States Southwest

High-severity fires in dry conifer forests of the United States Southwest have created large (>1000 ha) treeless areas that are unprecedented in the regional historical record. These fires have reset extensive portions of Southwestern ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Lawson & C. Lawson var. scopulorum Engelm.) forest landscapes. At least two recovery options following high-severity fire are emerging. One option is for post-fire successional pathways to move toward a return to the pre-fire forest type. Alternatively, an area may transition to persistent non-forested ecosystems. We studied regeneration patterns of ponderosa pine following eight fires in Arizona and New Mexico, USA, that burned in dry conifer forests dominated by ponderosa pine during a recent 18-year regional drought period, 1996 to 2013. Our a priori hypotheses were: 1) the most xeric areas within these severely burned dry conifer forests are least likely to regenerate to the pre-fire forest type due to persistent post-fire moisture stress; and 2) areas farther away from conifer seed sources have a lower likelihood of regeneration, even if these areas are climatically favorable for post-fire ponderosa pine establishment. We evaluated our hypotheses using empirical data and generalized linear mixed-effects models. We found that low-elevation, xeric sites are more limiting to conifer regeneration than higher-elevation mesic sites. Areas >150 m from a seed source are much less likely to have ponderosa pine regeneration. Spatial interpolations of modeled post-fire regeneration of ponderosa pine across the study landscapes indicate expansive areas with low likelihood of pine regeneration following high-severity fire. We discuss multiple post-fire successional pathways following high-severity fire, including potentially stable transitions to non-forest vegetation types that may represent long-term type conversions. These findings regarding landscape changes in Southwest forests in response to fires and post-fire regeneration patterns during early-stage climate warming contribute to the development of better-informed ecosystem management strategies for forest adaptation or mitigation under projected hotter droughts in this region.

Arizona, New Mexico↗
USGS2014

Hydroclimatic regimes: a distributed water-balance framework for hydrologic assessment, classification, and management

Runoff-based indicators of terrestrial water availability are appropriate for humid regions, but have tended to limit our basic hydrologic understanding of drylands – the dry-subhumid, semiarid, and arid regions which presently cover nearly half of the global land surface. In response, we introduce an indicator framework that gives equal weight to humid and dryland regions, accounting fully for both vertical (precipitation + evapotranspiration) and horizontal (groundwater + surface-water) components of the hydrologic cycle in any given location – as well as fluxes into and out of landscape storage. We apply the framework to a diverse hydroclimatic region (the conterminous USA) using a distributed water-balance model consisting of 53 400 networked landscape hydrologic units. Our model simulations indicate that about 21% of the conterminous USA either generated no runoff or consumed runoff from upgradient sources on a mean-annual basis during the 20th century. Vertical fluxes exceeded horizontal fluxes across 76% of the conterminous area. Long-term-average total water availability (TWA) during the 20th century, defined here as the total influx to a landscape hydrologic unit from precipitation, groundwater, and surface water, varied spatially by about 400 000-fold, a range of variation ~100 times larger than that for mean-annual runoff across the same area. The framework includes but is not limited to classical, runoff-based approaches to water-resource assessment. It also incorporates and reinterprets the green- and blue-water perspective now gaining international acceptance. Implications of the new framework for several areas of contemporary hydrology are explored, and the data requirements of the approach are discussed in relation to the increasing availability of gridded global climate, land-surface, and hydrologic data sets.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2020

Winter carry-over effects on spring body condition driven by agricultural subsidies to Lesser Snow Geese (Anser caersulscens caerulescens)

Anthropogenic changes to landscapes associated with intensive agriculture often have deleterious effects on avian abundance. However, some species like the Lesser Snow Goose ( Anser caerulescens caerulescens ), can benefit from increases in agricultural crops on both wintering and migratory stopover sites. We investigated the influence of winter habitat use on spring body condition in Lesser Snow Goose, a species that has increased in population following expansion into agriculturally based winter habitats. We used stable isotope measurements of four elements (δ 2 H, δ 13 C, δ 15 N, and δ 34 S) to determine likely prior winter habitat use of snow geese collected during spring migration across Arkansas, Missouri, and Nebraska in 2016. We evaluated differences in body size, lipid, and protein reserves from individuals with isotope values that suggested winter habitat use in traditional coastal marsh and non-coastal /agriculture habitat. Inferred winter habitat influenced total body lipid levels in snow geese collected during spring migration. Adult and juvenile individuals inferred to have overwintered in coastal marsh (n = 60) had, on average, 33.4 g (95% Confidence Interval: 0.4 g, 66.4 g) less lipid than counterparts wintering in non-coastal / agricultural habitat (n = 77). Waterfowl foods found in marshes typically have low true metabolizable energy values as a consequence of their high fiber content, which likely increases daily consumption rates. Increased energy expenditure related to greater time spent foraging, paired with lower energetic rewards, may result in lower lipid reserves among geese using coastal marsh habitats compared to birds using agricultural landscapes. Consequently, carry-over effects based on winter habitat use could explain variation in lipid reserves among individuals during spring migration and may ultimately explain differential fitness rates or susceptibility to harvest. Our results have implications for the conservation and management of this species as historic wetland landscapes become more intensively converted and used for agricultural purposes.

Arkansas, Missouri, Nebraska↗
USGS2023

Full-service hotels, convenience stores, or fire escapes? Evaluating the functional role of stopover sites for Neotropical migrants following passage across the Gulf of Mexico in autumn

Nearctic Neotropical migratory songbirds incur the highest mortality during migration. En-route, songbirds rely on a network of stopover sites to rest, refuel, and/or seek refuge during poor weather. Conservation strategies prioritize protection of sites that best meet these needs. However, the specific function of a stopover site is expected to vary in relation to factors, such as geographic location, surrounding landscape, and weather. To identify sites with the highest conservation value for migratory songbirds, a conceptual framework was independently developed to classify sites into three functional categories based on their geographic and landscape features: fire escapes, convenience stores, and full-service hotels. The few attempts to empirically validate this framework have focused on temperate stopover sites. We evaluated the framework by testing the hypothesis that a site’s geographic and landscape characteristics can predict its function. We used capture and radio-tracking data at an island and mainland site in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico to quantify mean and variance in daily capture rate, body condition, stopover duration, and departure behavior during autumn, with a focus on four species: Swainson’s Thrush (Catharus ustulatus), Red-eyed Vireo (Vireo olivaceus), Gray Catbird (Dumetella carolinensis), and Prothonotary Warbler (Protonotaria citrea). Our results supported our predictions that the island functions as a fire escape, providing refuge for very high numbers of birds after encountering crosswinds or headwinds over the Gulf of Mexico, and the mainland forest site serves as a full-service hotel. The framework provides valuable insight for strategic conservation planning and management of stopover sites for songbirds. We suggest future studies evaluate the framework’s application to non-forest bird species. Additionally, we encourage collaborative efforts to consolidate and integrate tracking data, capture data from migration banding stations, and radar-based bird density estimates across a broad geography to test the framework’s ability to inform conservation planning across species’ full migratory range.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗
USGS2015

Influence of ecological factors on prevalence of meningeal worm ( Parelaphostrongylus tenuis infection in South Dakota, USA

The meningeal worm ( Parelaphostrongylus tenuis ) is a nematode parasite that commonly infects white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ; WTD) throughout the deciduous forest biome and deciduous-coniferous ecotone of eastern and central North America; the species is not known to occur west of the grassland biome of central North America. We used county-specific prevalence data to evaluate potential effects of landscape and climatologic factors on the spatial distribution of meningeal worm infection in South Dakota, US. Probability of infection increased 4-fold between eastern and western South Dakota and 1.3-fold for each 1-cm increase in summer precipitation. Sixty-three percent of WTD had only a single worm in the cranium. Expansion of meningeal worm infection across western South Dakota may be inherently low due to the combined effects of arid climate and potential attributes of the Missouri River that limit regional movements by infected WTD. Use of landscape genetic analyses to identify potential relationships between landscape features and population genetic structure of infected deer and parasites may contribute to a greater understanding of regional heterogeneity in meningeal worm infection rates across South Dakota, particularly in counties adjacent to the Missouri River. Future research evaluating heterogeneity in prevalence and intensity of infection between fawn and yearling deer, and the potential role of yearling male deer as dispersal agents of meningeal worms across the Missouri River, also is warranted.

South Dakota↗
USGS2018

Northeast

The distinct seasonality of the Northeast’s climate supports a diverse natural landscape adapted to the extremes of cold, snowy winters and warm to hot, humid summers. This natural landscape provides the economic and cultural foundation for many rural communities, which are largely supported by a diverse range of agricultural, tourism, and natural resource-dependent industries (see Ch. 10: Ag & Rural, Key Message 4) . The recent dominant trend in precipitation throughout the Northeast has been towards increases in rainfall intensity, with increases in intensity exceeding those in other regions of the contiguous United States. Further increases in rainfall intensity are expected, with increases in total precipitation expected during the winter and spring but with little change in the summer. Monthly precipitation in the Northeast is projected to be about 1 inch greater for December through April by end of century (2070–2100) under the higher scenario (RCP8.5). Ocean and coastal ecosystems are being affected by large changes in a variety of climate-related environmental conditions. These ecosystems support fishing and aquaculture, tourism and recreation, and coastal communities. Observed and projected increases in temperature, acidification, storm frequency and intensity, and sea levels are of particular concern for coastal and ocean ecosystems, as well as local communities and their interconnected social and economic systems. Increasing temperatures and changing seasonality on the Northeast Continental Shelf have affected marine organisms and the ecosystem in various ways. The warming trend experienced in the Northeast Continental Shelf has been associated with many fish and invertebrate species moving northward and to greater depths. Because of the diversity of the Northeast’s coastal landscape, the impacts from storms and sea level rise will vary at different locations along the coast. Northeastern cities, with their abundance of concrete and asphalt and relative lack of vegetation, tend to have higher temperatures than surrounding regions due to the urban heat island effect. During extreme heat events, nighttime temperatures in the region’s big cities are generally several degrees higher than surrounding regions, leading to higher risk of heat-related death. Urban areas are at risk for large numbers of evacuated and displaced populations and damaged infrastructure due to both extreme precipitation events and recurrent flooding, potentially requiring significant emergency response efforts and consideration of a long-term commitment to rebuilding and adaptation, and/or support for relocation where needed. Much of the infrastructure in the Northeast, including drainage and sewer systems, flood and storm protection assets, transportation systems, and power supply, is nearing the end of its planned life expectancy. Climate-related disruptions will only exacerbate existing issues with aging infrastructure. Sea level rise has amplified storm impacts in the Northeast (Key Message 2), contributing to higher surges that extend farther inland, as demonstrated in New York City in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy in 2012. Service and resource supply infrastructure in the Northeast is at increasing risk of disruption, resulting in lower quality of life, economic declines, and increased social inequality. Loss of public services affects the capacity of communities to function as administrative and economic centers and triggers disruptions of interconnected supply chains (Ch. 16: International, Key Message 1) . Increases in annual average temperatures across the Northeast range from less than 1°F (0.6°C) in West Virginia to about 3°F (1.7°C) or more in New England since 1901. Although the relative risk of death on very hot days is lower today than it was a few decades ago, heat-related illness and death remain significant public health problems in the Northeast. For example, a study in New York City estimated that in 2013 there were 133 excess deaths due to extreme heat. These projected increases in temperature are expected to lead to substantially more premature deaths, hospital admissions, and emergency department visits across the Northeast. For example, in the Northeast we can expect approximately 650 additional premature deaths per year from extreme heat by the year 2050 under either a lower (RCP4.5) or higher (RCP8.5) scenario and from 960 (under RCP4.5) to 2,300 (under RCP8.5) more premature deaths per year by 2090. Communities, towns, cities, counties, states, and tribes across the Northeast are engaged in efforts to build resilience to environmental challenges and adapt to a changing climate. Developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies in daily practice often occur in collaboration with state and federal agencies (e.g., New Jersey Climate Adaptation Alliance 2017, New York Climate Clearinghouse 2017, Rhode Island STORMTOOLS 2017, EPA 2017, CDC 2015 ). Advances in rural towns, cities, and suburban areas include low-cost adjustments of existing building codes and standards. In coastal areas, partnerships among local communities and federal and state agencies leverage federal adaptation tools and decision support frameworks (for example, NOAA’s Digital Coast, USGS’s Coastal Change Hazards Portal, and New Jersey’s Getting to Resilience). Increasingly, cities and towns across the Northeast are developing or implementing plans for adaptation and resilience in the face of changing climate (e.g., EPA 2017 ). The approaches are designed to maintain and enhance the everyday lives of residents and promote economic development. In some cities, adaptation planning has been used to respond to present and future challenges in the built environment. Regional efforts have recommended changes in design standards when building, replacing, or retrofitting infrastructure to account for a changing climate.

Report↗
USGS2000

Early avian research at the Savannah River Site, South Carolina: historical highlights and possibilities for the future

Avian biology and collection of baseline population data was a major part of the first decade (1951-1961) of field research at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Baseline inventories involving organisms and land-use types were part of the mission in the early contracts between the Atomic Energy Commission (now the Department of Energy) and the University of Georgia prior to the establishment of the Savannah River Ecology Laboratory (SREL) as a National Environmental Research Park Laboratory. About 27% of the SREL publications during this first decade dealt with birds. Since that time, research on the SRS landscape has expanded and broadened with less than 10% of the publications dealing with birds. SRS changed also from an agriculturally dominated area with ca. 40% open areas (fields, crops, pastures) to a timber-managed area with ca. 80% forests, 12% open areas, and 2% open water impoundments. Baseline breeding bird populations of the SRS in the 1950s were typical for the region with avian species richness and density increasing with the age and succession of the vegetation (0-26 species and densities of 0-741 pairs/km2 for the habitats surveyed). During the first decade at the SRS, the resident game bird population of Northern Bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) increased and the Mourning Dove (Zenaida rnacroura) population, a migratory upland game bird, remained stable. Current avian research efforts, as well as new opportunities to reexamine the breeding bird populations and the landscape of SRS, will provide a better understanding of the potential causes of declines of neotropical migratory birds, declines of resident and migratory game birds, and how habitat influences invasions and extinctions of breeding birds in the region. Emphasis for future research and monitoring should be on neotropical migratory bird populations in decline (Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Coccyzus americanus; Eastern Wood-Pewee, Contopus virens; Wood Thrush, Hylocichla mustelina; Prairie Warbler, Dendroica discolor; and Painted Bunting, Passerina ciris), resident species in decline (e.g., Loggerhead Shrike, Lanius ludovicianus), certain species groups (e.g., waterfowl and wading birds), important habitat, and recent invasions and extinctions of breeding species. Old growth forested wetlands should be monitored because of the large number of neotropical migratory birds that depend on this habitat in the southeastern United States. A variety of survey techniques will be needed to determine population trends: line transects, call or song playbacks, roadside point surveys (call counts for game birds), aerial surveys, and presence or absence of species within stratified areas of SRS. The SRS provides opportunity for avian research at the landscape level with the potential to solve problems important to the survival of many bird populations as well as to increase our knowledge on how to manage and conserve our avian natural resources for the future.

Book chapter↗
USGS2005

Waiting for trees to grow: nest survival, brood parasitism, and the impact of reforestation efforts

Of the forested wetlands that once covered the Mississippi Alluvial Valley, only -25% remain due to large-scale conversion to agriculture. Reforestation efforts are currently underway, but tracts planted with slow-growing oaks maintain the structure of a grassland for 5 yr or longer, and will require at least 40 yr to resemble a mature forest. Nonetheless, it is hoped that reforestation, even in early stages, can effectively increase core area in extant tracts of mature forest by reducing higher rates of nest failure and brood parasitism often associated with forest-agriculture interfaces. To test this, we monitored nests of a mature-forest specialist, the Acadian Flycatcher, in extensive bottomland forests adjacent to agricultural fields and reforested tracts (<20 yr-old). We used an information-theoretic approach to evaluate alternative hypotheses regarding the relative impacts of agriculture and reforestation in the landscape. Controlling for year, season, and stand basal area, there was little evidence that landscape context significantly affected nest survival, although survival tended to increase with decreasing amounts of agriculture. The probability of brood parasitism increased with greater proportions of open habitats in the landscape. There was much stronger support for the hypothesis that parasitism rates depended on the sum of agricultural and reforested tracts, rather than on the amount of agriculture alone. Thus, reforested tracts are not expected to have the desired effect of reducing parasitism rates in the adjacent mature forest until several decades have passed.

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