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EAARL topography: Jean Lafitte National Historical Park and Preserve 2006

These remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements of Lidar-derived first surface (FS) and bare earth (BE) topography were produced as a collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Florida Integrated Science Center (FISC), St. Petersburg, FL; the National Park Service (NPS), Gulf Coast Network, Lafayette, LA; and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Wallops Flight Facility, VA. This project provides highly detailed and accurate datasets of the Jean Lafitte National Historical Park and Preserve in Louisiana, acquired on September 22, 2006. The datasets are made available for use as a management tool to research scientists and natural resource managers. An innovative airborne Lidar instrument originally developed at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, and known as the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL), was used during data acquisition. The EAARL system is a raster-scanning, waveform-resolving, green-wavelength (532-nanometer) Lidar designed to map near-shore bathymetry, topography, and vegetation structure simultaneously. The EAARL sensor suite includes the raster-scanning, water-penetrating full-waveform adaptive Lidar, a down-looking red-green-blue (RGB) digital camera, a high-resolution multi-spectral color infrared (CIR) camera, two precision dual-frequency kinematic carrier-phase GPS receivers, and an integrated miniature digital inertial measurement unit, which provide for submeter georeferencing of each laser sample. The nominal EAARL platform is a twin-engine Cessna 310 aircraft, but the instrument may be deployed on a range of light aircraft. A single pilot, a Lidar operator, and a data analyst constitute the crew for most survey operations. This sensor has the potential to make significant contributions in measuring sub-aerial and submarine coastal topography within cross-environmental surveys. Elevation measurements were collected over the survey area using the EAARL system, and the resulting data were then processed using the Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS), a custom-built processing system developed in a NASA-USGS collaboration. ALPS supports the exploration and processing of Lidar data in an interactive or batch mode. Modules for presurvey flight line definition, flight path plotting, Lidar raster and waveform investigation, and digital camera image playback have been developed. Processing algorithms have been developed to extract the range to the first and last significant return within each waveform. ALPS is used routinely to create maps that represent submerged or first surface topography. Specialized filtering algorithms have been implemented to determine the 'bare earth' under vegetation from a point cloud of last return elevations.

Louisiana↗

EAARL topography - Vicksburg National Military Park 2008: Bare earth

These remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements of Lidar-derived bare earth (BE) topography were produced as a collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Florida Integrated Science Center (FISC), St. Petersburg, FL; the National Park Service (NPS), Gulf Coast Network, Lafayette, LA; and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Wallops Flight Facility, VA. This project provides highly detailed and accurate datasets of the Vicksburg National Military Park in Mississippi, acquired on March 6, 2008. The datasets are made available for use as a management tool to research scientists and natural resource managers. An innovative airborne Lidar instrument originally developed at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, and known as the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL), was used during data acquisition. The EAARL system is a raster-scanning, waveform-resolving, green-wavelength (532-nanometer) Lidar designed to map near-shore bathymetry, topography, and vegetation structure simultaneously. The EAARL sensor suite includes the raster-scanning, water-penetrating full-waveform adaptive Lidar, a down-looking red-green-blue (RGB) digital camera, a high-resolution multi-spectral color infrared (CIR) camera, two precision dual-frequency kinematic carrier-phase GPS receivers, and an integrated miniature digital inertial measurement unit, which provide for submeter georeferencing of each laser sample. The nominal EAARL platform is a twin-engine Cessna 310 aircraft, but the instrument may be deployed on a range of light aircraft. A single pilot, a Lidar operator, and a data analyst constitute the crew for most survey operations. This sensor has the potential to make significant contributions in measuring sub-aerial and submarine coastal topography within cross-environmental surveys. Elevation measurements were collected over the survey area using the EAARL system, and the resulting data were then processed using the Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS), a custom-built processing system developed in a NASA-USGS collaboration. ALPS supports the exploration and processing of Lidar data in an interactive or batch mode. Modules for presurvey flight line definition, flight path plotting, Lidar raster and waveform investigation, and digital camera image playback have been developed. Processing algorithms have been developed to extract the range to the first and last significant return within each waveform. ALPS is used routinely to create maps that represent submerged or first surface topography. Specialized filtering algorithms have been implemented to determine the 'bare earth' under vegetation from a point cloud of last return elevations.

Mississippi↗

EAARL topography - Natchez Trace Parkway 2007: First surface

These remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements of Lidar-derived first surface (FS) topography were produced as a collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Florida Integrated Science Center (FISC), St. Petersburg, FL; the National Park Service (NPS), Gulf Coast Network, Lafayette, LA; and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Wallops Flight Facility, VA. This project provides highly detailed and accurate datasets of a portion of the Natchez Trace Parkway in Mississippi, acquired on September 14, 2007. The datasets are made available for use as a management tool to research scientists and natural resource managers. An innovative airborne Lidar instrument originally developed at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, and known as the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL), was used during data acquisition. The EAARL system is a raster-scanning, waveform-resolving, green-wavelength (532-nanometer) Lidar designed to map near-shore bathymetry, topography, and vegetation structure simultaneously. The EAARL sensor suite includes the raster-scanning, water-penetrating full-waveform adaptive Lidar, a down-looking red-green-blue (RGB) digital camera, a high-resolution multi-spectral color infrared (CIR) camera, two precision dual-frequency kinematic carrier-phase GPS receivers, and an integrated miniature digital inertial measurement unit, which provide for submeter georeferencing of each laser sample. The nominal EAARL platform is a twin-engine Cessna 310 aircraft, but the instrument may be deployed on a range of light aircraft. A single pilot, a Lidar operator, and a data analyst constitute the crew for most survey operations. This sensor has the potential to make significant contributions in measuring sub-aerial and submarine coastal topography within cross-environmental surveys. Elevation measurements were collected over the survey area using the EAARL system, and the resulting data were then processed using the Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS), a custom-built processing system developed in a NASA-USGS collaboration. ALPS supports the exploration and processing of Lidar data in an interactive or batch mode. Modules for presurvey flight line definition, flight path plotting, Lidar raster and waveform investigation, and digital camera image playback have been developed. Processing algorithms have been developed to extract the range to the first and last significant return within each waveform. ALPS is used routinely to create maps that represent submerged or first surface topography. Specialized filtering algorithms have been implemented to determine the 'bare earth' under vegetation from a point cloud of last return elevations.

Data Series↗

EAARL submerged topography– U.S. Virgin Islands 2003

These remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements of Lidar-derived submerged topography were produced as a collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Florida Integrated Science Center (FISC), St. Petersburg, FL; the National Park Service (NPS), South Florida-Caribbean Network, Miami, FL; and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Wallops Flight Facility, VA. This project provides highly detailed and accurate bathymetric datasets of a portion of the U.S. Virgin Islands, acquired on April 21, 23, and 30, May 2, and June 14 and 17, 2003. The datasets are made available for use as a management tool to research scientists and natural resource managers. An innovative airborne Lidar instrument originally developed at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, and known as the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL), was used during data acquisition. The EAARL system is a raster-scanning, waveform-resolving, green-wavelength (532-nanometer) Lidar designed to map near-shore bathymetry, topography, and vegetation structure simultaneously. The EAARL sensor suite includes the raster-scanning, water-penetrating full-waveform adaptive Lidar, a down-looking red-green-blue (RGB) digital camera, a high-resolution multi-spectral color infrared (CIR) camera, two precision dual-frequency kinematic carrier-phase GPS receivers, and an integrated miniature digital inertial measurement unit, which provide for submeter georeferencing of each laser sample. The nominal EAARL platform is a twin-engine Cessna 310 aircraft, but the instrument may be deployed on a range of light aircraft. A single pilot, a Lidar operator, and a data analyst constitute the crew for most survey operations. This sensor has the potential to make significant contributions in measuring sub-aerial and submarine coastal topography within cross-environmental surveys. Elevation measurements were collected over the survey area using the EAARL system, and the resulting data were then processed using the Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS), a custom-built processing system developed in a NASA-USGS collaboration. ALPS supports the exploration and processing of Lidar data in an interactive or batch mode. Modules for presurvey flight line definition, flight path plotting, Lidar raster and waveform investigation, and digital camera image playback have been developed. Processing algorithms have been developed to extract the range to the first and last significant return within each waveform. ALPS is used routinely to create maps that represent submerged or first surface topography. Specialized filtering algorithms have been implemented to determine the 'bare earth' under vegetation from a point cloud of last return elevations.

St John Island↗

The potential of satellite remote sensing time series to uncover wetland phenology under unique challenges of tidal setting

While growth history of vegetation within upland systems is well studied, plant phenology within coastal tidal systems is less understood. Landscape-scale, satellite-derived indicators of plant greenness may not adequately represent seasonality of vegetation biomass and productivity within tidal wetlands due to limitations of cloud cover, satellite temporal frequency and attenu-ation of plant signals by tidal flooding. However, understanding plant phenology is necessary to gain insight into aboveground biomass, photosynthetic activity, and carbon sequestration. In this study we use a modeling approach to estimate plant greenness throughout a year in tidal wet-lands located within the San Francisco Bay Area, USA. We used variables such as EVI history, temperature, and elevation to predict plant greenness on a 14-day timestep. We found this ap-proach accurately estimated plant greenness, with larger error observed within more dynamic restored wetlands, particularly at early post-restoration stages. We also found modeled EVI can be used as an input variable into greenhouse gas models, allowing for an estimate of carbon se-questration and gross primary production. Our strategy can be further developed in future re-search by assessing restoration and management effects on wetland phenological dynamics and through incorporating the entire Sentinel-2 time-series once it becomes available within Google Earth Engine.

California↗

Tidal hydrodynamics under future sea level rise and coastal morphology in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

This study examines the integrated influence of sea level rise (SLR) and future morphology on tidal hydrodynamics along the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) coast including seven embayments and three ecologically and economically significant estuaries. A large-domain hydrodynamic model was used to simulate astronomic tides for present and future conditions (circa 2050 and 2100). Future conditions were simulated by imposing four SLR scenarios to alter hydrodynamic boundary conditions and updating shoreline position and dune heights using a probabilistic model that is coupled to SLR. Under the highest SLR scenario, tidal amplitudes within the bays increased as much as 67% (10.0 cm) because of increases in the inlet cross-sectional area. Changes in harmonic constituent phases indicated that tidal propagation was faster in the future scenarios within most of the bays. Maximum tidal velocities increased in all of the bays, especially in Grand Bay where velocities doubled under the highest SLR scenario. In addition, the ratio of the maximum flood to maximum ebb velocity decreased in the future scenarios (i.e., currents became more ebb dominant) by as much as 26% and 39% in Weeks Bay and Apalachicola, respectively. In Grand Bay, the flood-ebb ratio increased (i.e., currents became more flood dominant) by 25% under the lower SLR scenarios, but decreased by 16% under the higher SLR as a result of the offshore barrier islands being overtopped, which altered the tidal prism. Results from this study can inform future storm surge and ecological assessments of SLR, and improve monitoring and management decisions within the NGOM.

Florida, Louisiana↗

A comparison of wetland tree growth response to hydrologic regime in Louisiana and South Carolina

Numerous investigations have examined the growth of wetland tree species under a variety of hydrologic conditions. Most studies have compared flooded versus non-flooded conditions in greenhouses or in one to a few field sites near each other or within the same region. Comparisons of wetland tree growth among widely separated areas of the country are rare. This study compared the diameter growth of Nyssa sylvatica var. biflora, Nyssa aquatica , and Taxodium distichum trees from Louisiana (Gulf Coastal Plain) and South Carolina (Atlantic Coastal Plain). In both regions, individual trees were distributed along a gradient of hydrologic regimes from infrequent to permanent flooding. Nyssa sylvatica var. biflora was restricted to periodically flooded sites in both regions. Within these sites, this species showed little response to differences in mean water depth. In contrast, significant differences among hydrologic regimes were detected for N. aquatica in both regions. In Louisiana, patterns of growth response did not correlate with the gradient of hydrologic regimes, but in South Carolina maximum growth was inversely related to mean water levels during the growing season. Maximum growth of T. distichum trees was observed at sites with shallow, permanent flooding in both regions.

Louisiana, South Carolina↗

Genetic and environmental factors associated with survival of a rare songbird in a fragmented urban landscape

The coastal Cactus Wren ( Campylorhynchus brunneicapillus ) persists in small and fragmented populations throughout southern California that are subject to genetic drift and inbreeding. We combined individual banding and resighting data and genotyped individuals at 22 microsatellite loci to assess whether heterozygosity was associated with survival across three regional Cactus Wren populations on conserved lands in Orange and San Diego Counties between 2009 and 2020. Using Cormack-Jolly-Seber models (CJS) to analyze the 5-year capture histories of 528 individual wrens, we found that age class (hatch year or after hatch year) was the strongest predictor of survival. Individual heterozygosity and precipitation also had positive effects on survival, with survival up to 2 times higher in the most heterozygous individuals compared to the least and up to 1.5 times higher in high precipitation years versus drought years. Multi-locus heterozygosity was significantly correlated across loci, suggesting that inbreeding depression is likely driving the association between survival and heterozygosity. Study results support that genetic rescue efforts that reduce inbreeding have the potential to improve fitness and mitigate further loss of genetic variation in managed populations.

California↗

Conservation status of the buff-breasted sandpiper: Historic and contemporary distribution and abundance in south America

We present historic and contemporary information on the distribution and abundance of Buff-breasted Sandpipers ( Tryngites subruficollis ) in South America. Historic information was collated from the literature, area ornithologists, and museums, whereas contemporary data were derived from surveys conducted throughout the main wintering range in Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil during the austral summers of 1999 and 2001. Variable circular plot sampling was used to estimate population densities. During 1999, the highest concentration of Buff-breasted Sandpipers in Argentina was in southern Bahía Samborombón (General Lavalle District) and areas north of Mar Chiquita coastal lagoon. During 2001, the highest concentrations in Brazil were at Ilha da Torotama and Lagoa do Peixe National Park. During 1999 and 2001, the highest concentrations of Buff-breasted Sandpipers in Uruguay were found along three lagoons (Laguna de Rocha, Laguna de Castillos, and Laguna Garzón) bordering the Atlantic Ocean. Population densities (birds/ha) of Buff-breasted Sandpipers were 0.11 (95% C.I. = 0.04–0.31) in Argentina, 1.62 (0.67–3.93) in Brazil, and 1.08 (0.37–3.18) in Uruguay. High turnover rates at survey sites, due to the formation of large, mobile flocks, contributed to moderately large confidence intervals around our population density estimates. Nevertheless, compared with historic accounts of Buff-breasted Sandpipers, our survey data indicate the population size of this species has declined substantially since the late 1800s and contemporary information suggests the species has continued to decline during the past three decades. Buff-breasted Sandpipers were found almost exclusively in pasturelands and appear to depend heavily upon intensive grazing by livestock, which maintain suitable short grass conditions. We discuss the need for protection of critical areas and proper range management to ensure appropriate habitat remains available for the species, and provide suggestions for future research needs.

The Wilson Bulletin↗

A comparison of photograph-interpreted and IfSAR-derived maps of polar bear denning habitat for the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) in Alaska use the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) for maternal denning. Pregnant bears den in snow banks for more than 3 months in winter during which they give birth to and nurture young. Denning is one of the most vulnerable times in polar bear life history as the family group cannot simply walk away from a disturbance without jeopardizing survival of newly born cubs. The ANWR includes the “1002 Area”, a region recently opened for oil and gas exploration by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI). As a part of its mission, the DOI “… protects and manages the Nation's natural resources …” and is therefore responsible for conserving polar bears and encouraging development of energy potential. Because future industrial activities could overlap habitats used by denning polar bears, identifying these habitats can inform the decisions of resource managers tasked to develop resources and protect polar bears. To help inform these efforts, we qualitatively compared the distribution of denning habitat identified by two different methods: previously published habitat from manual interpretation of aerial photographs, and habitat derived by computer interrogation of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (IfSAR) digital terrain models (DTM). Because photograph-interpreted methods depicted denning habitat as a line and IfSAR-derived methods depicted habitat as a polygon, we assessed agreement between the two methods with distance measurements. We found that 77.5 percent of IfSAR-derived denning habitat (79.6 km2 ; 1.2 percent of the 6,837.0 km2 1002 Area) was within 600 m of photograph-interpreted habitat (3,026.9 km), including 53.9 percent within 200 m. This distribution differed from that of randomly distributed points, as only 49.4 percent of these occurred within 600 m of photograph-interpreted habitat, including 18.3 percent within 200 m. Both methods appear to identify the major physiographic features that polar bears might select for denning. IfSAR-derived methods identified habitat at greater frequency beyond major landscape features such as coastal bluffs, river banks and lakeshores, were more likely to identify isolated pockets of putative denning habitat, and were easier to implement than deriving habitat from photograph-interpretive efforts. However, previous research suggests that photograph-interpretation methods may identify denning habitat more correctly than computer interrogation of IfSAR DTMs. Future work should quantify the distribution of IfSAR-derived denning habitat relative to actual landscape features and polar bear maternal dens in the 1002 Area, and investigate the feasibility of habitat identification from finer grained DTMs.

Alaska↗

Sequoia and Sequoiadendron: Two paleoendemic megatrees with markedly different adaptive responses to recent high-severity fires

Premise Coast redwood ( Sequoia sempervirens ) and giant sequoia ( Sequoiadendron giganteum ) are two iconic paleoendemic species with limited distributions, well known for their spectacular size. Recently, they have been exposed to high-severity crown fires, with starkly contrasting responses. Methods We used all available published literature and field observations to understand the responses to fire in an evolutionary context. Results Coast redwoods, found in California's coastal rainforests, were highly resilient to high-severity fires, with most trees surviving due to their ability to resprout from the base and trunk, though seedling regeneration was largely lacking. In contrast, giant sequoias, native to the Sierra Nevada, do not resprout, leading to significant tree mortality after very high-severity fires; they released seeds only in patches where some trees survived moderately high-severity fires. Conclusions These high-severity fires were novel events for giant sequoias, but not for coast redwoods. Fire suppression has disrupted the natural fire regime in the giant sequoia ecosystem by preventing frequent lightning-caused surface fires, resulting in high-severity fires that killed a substantial number of these giants. In coast redwood forests, infrequent but high-severity crown fires were the norm before burning by Native Americans. Frequent, low-severity burning by Native Americans over the past few hundred years was localized and 20 th -century fire suppression has returned the natural fire regime to these forests. The recent crown fires do not represent a threat to redwood conservation; however, other management goals may require emulating Native American burning practices and in some cases may be best termed cultural restoration.

American Journal of Botany↗

Evaluating the relationship among wetland vertical development, elevation capital, sea-level rise and tidal marsh sustainability

Accelerating sea-level rise and human impacts to the coast (e.g., altered sediment supply and hydrology, nutrient loading) influence the accumulation of sediment and organic matter, and thereby impact the ability of coastal tidal wetlands to maintain an elevation consistently within the vegetation growth range. Critical components of marsh sustainability are the marsh elevation within the vegetation growth range (elevation capital) and the rates of marsh surface elevation change and relative sea-level rise. The relationship among these factors and their combined influence on marsh integrity were evaluated by comparing trends in surface elevation change on five salt marsh sites located on three marsh islands in Jamaica Bay, NY, USA. All marsh sites were located in a similar physical setting (i.e., tidal range, sea-level rise rate, sediment supply). The structural integrity of the marshes ranged from densely vegetated (high integrity) to severely deteriorated (low integrity) with elevation capital ranging from high to low, respectively, and included a deteriorating marsh site that was partially restored. Two marshes with high elevation capital maintained their relative position high within the tidal range through a combination of surface sediment deposition and shallow subsurface expansion, and kept pace with local sea-level rise. A marsh with moderate elevation capital showed signs of flooding stress and was deteriorating, but managed to keep pace with local sea-level rise. The deteriorated marsh gained no elevation over the 14-year study and was located too low within the tidal range to support continuous coverage of salt marsh vegetation. Elevation gain in the restored marsh initially lagged behind sea-level rise for 8 years, but the elevation trend recovered and kept pace with sea-level rise for the last 5 years. A conceptual model is presented that describes the relationship among elevation capital, and rates of marsh elevation gain and sea-level rise. Note that a search for factors influencing wetland loss should focus on process changes to marsh vertical development (e.g., sediment supply, vegetation growth) and climate change effects (e.g., sea-level and temperature rise) that can cause elevation gain to lag behind sea-level rise, and these occur prior to the onset of marsh deterioration.

New York↗

Agricultural conservation practices could help offset climate change impacts on cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in Lake Erie

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a recurring problem in many temperate large lake and coastal marine ecosystems, caused mainly by anthropogenic eutrophication. Implementation of agricultural conservation practices (ACPs) offers a means to reduce non-point source nutrient runoff and mitigate HABs. However, the effectiveness of ACPs in a changing climate remains uncertain. We used an integrated biophysical modeling approach to predict how Lake Erie cyanobacterial HAB severity (bloom biomass) may change under several climate and ACP implementation scenarios, using western Lake Erie and its largely agricultural watershed as our study system. An ensemble of general circulation model projections was used to drive spatially explicit land use and hydrology models of the Maumee River watershed, the output of which informed a predictive model of Lake Erie HAB severity. Results show that, in the absence of changes in ACPs, the frequency of severe HABs is projected to increase during coming decades, owing to increased inputs of nutrients from the watershed. These anticipated increases are due to increased total precipitation and more frequent higher-magnitude rainfall events. While further implementation of ACPs appears capable of reducing severe HAB events, widespread implementation would be necessary to reduce HAB severity below current management targets. This study highlights how continued climate change will only exacerbate the need for land management practices that can reduce nutrient runoff in agriculturally dominated ecosystems, such as Lake Erie. It also shows how interdisciplinary, biophysical modeling approaches can help identify strategies to mitigate HABs in the face of anthropogenic stressors.

Lake Erie↗

Sampling little fish in big rivers: Larval fish detection probabilities in two Lake Erie tributaries and implications for sampling effort and abundance indices

Larval fish are frequently sampled in coastal tributaries to determine factors affecting recruitment, evaluate spawning success, and estimate production from spawning habitats. Imperfect detection of larvae is common, because larval fish are small and unevenly distributed in space and time, and coastal tributaries are often large and heterogeneous. We estimated detection probabilities of larval fish from several taxa in the Maumee and Detroit rivers, the two largest tributaries of Lake Erie. We then demonstrated how accounting for imperfect detection influenced (1) the probability of observing taxa as present relative to sampling effort and (2) abundance indices for larval fish of two Detroit River species. We found that detection probabilities ranged from 0.09 to 0.91 but were always less than 1.0, indicating that imperfect detection is common among taxa and between systems. In general, taxa with high fecundities, small larval length at hatching, and no nesting behaviors had the highest detection probabilities. Also, detection probabilities were higher in the Maumee River than in the Detroit River. Accounting for imperfect detection produced up to fourfold increases in abundance indices for Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis and Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum . The effect of accounting for imperfect detection in abundance indices was greatest during periods of low abundance for both species. Detection information can be used to determine the appropriate level of sampling effort for larval fishes and may improve management and conservation decisions based on larval fish data.

Michigan, Ohio↗

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling.

South Carolina↗

Aerial strip-transect surveys: Indexing autumn–winter waterbird abundance and distribution in South Carolina

Aerial surveys integrating probability-based sample designs have been implemented successfully to estimate relative abundance of wintering ducks in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri, but these approaches have not been evaluated in the Atlantic Flyway except for American black ducks ( Anas rubripes ) along the Atlantic coast. Furthermore, these surveys have not been used to index abundance of other nonbreeding waterbirds. Given elimination or reduction of resources allocated to the Midwinter Waterfowl Survey in the Atlantic Flyway and elsewhere, the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources (SCDNR) expressed a need for reliable surveys to monitor waterfowl and other waterbirds during autumn through winter. We designed stratified aerial strip-transect surveys to estimate population indices for migrating and wintering dabbling ducks (Anatini), diving ducks (Aythini, Mergini, Oxyurini), pelagic and piscivorous waterbirds (Anhingidae, Laridae, Pelicanidae, Phalacrocoracidae), and wading birds (Ardeidae, Ciconiidae, Threskiornithidae) in coastal and inland regions of South Carolina during autumn-winter 2017–2019. We used unequal probability random sampling to estimate population indices with deemed adequate precision (i.e., coefficient of variation [CV] ≤ 20%) and estimated theoretical survey efforts needed to achieve desired precision for future aerial surveys. Indices met our goal for precision in September and January 2018 for wading birds, in February and November 2018 for pelagic waterbirds, and in February 2018 for diving ducks, but never for other ducks during South Carolina waterfowl hunting season. We detected peak abundance of dabbling and diving ducks in January and wading birds and wood storks ( Mycteria americana ) in September. We estimated ~2.5 times greater survey effort was needed across waterbird taxa than was expended to achieve a CV=20%. We also used survey data to depict spatiotemporal variation in waterbird distributions across the study area. Our surveys are applicable for the SCDNR and other agencies seeking to monitor autumn-winter waterbird populations. Although survey refinements are necessary to increase precision in South Carolina, our waterbird indices are useful to assess population trends through time, guide habitat management and restoration efforts, refine local harvest regulations, inform law enforcement to detected illicit activities (e.g., baiting), and monitor possible shifting waterbird distributions in response to land-use and climate change.

South Carolina↗

Coastal wetlands of the northern Gulf of California: Inventory and conservation status

1. Above 28°N, the coastline of the northern Gulf of California is indented at frequent intervals by negative or inverse estuaries that are saltier at their backs than at their mouths due to the lack of freshwater inflow. These ‘esteros’ total over 215 000 ha in area and encompass mangrove marshes below 29°N and saltgrass ( Distichlis palmeri ) marshes north of 29°N. An additional 6000 ha of freshwater and brackish wetlands are found in the Colorado River delta where fresh water enters the intertidal zone. 2. The mangrove marshes in the Gulf of California have been afforded some degree of protected status in Mexico, but the northern saltgrass esteros do not have priority conservation status and are increasingly becoming development targets for resorts, vacation homes and aquaculture sites. 3. We conducted an inventory of the marshes using aerial photography and satellite images, and evaluated the extent and type of development on each marsh. We reviewed the available literature on the marshes to document their vegetation types and ecological functions in the adjacent marine and terrestrial ecosystems. 4. Over 95% of the mangrove marshes have been developed for shrimp farming. However, the farms are built adjacent to, rather than in, the marshes, and the mangrove stands are still mostly intact. 5. The majority of saltgrass marshes above the mangrove line are still relatively unspoiled. However, resort and vacation home development is taking place on land surrounding them. 6. We recommend a system of protected reserves incorporating the pristine wetlands, along with water quality management and buffer zones for the more developed esteros. The saltgrass marshes should be considered for conservation protection, similar to the protection given to the southern mangrove marshes whose value has already been recognized.

Gulf of California↗

Modeling colony site dynamics: A case study of gull-billed terns ( Sterna nilotica ) in coastal Virginia

We developed a Markov process model for colony-site dynamics of Gull-billed Terns ( Sterna nilotica ). From 1993 through 1996, we monitored breeding numbers of Gull-billed Terns and their frequent colony associates, Common Terns ( Sterna hirundo ) and Black Skimmers ( Rynchops niger ), at colony sites along 80 km of the barrier island region of coastal Virginia. We also monitored flooding events and renesting. We developed the model for colony survival, extinction, and recolonization at potential colony sites over the four-year period. We then used data on annual site occupation by Gull-billed Terns to estimate model parameters and tested for differences between nesting substrates (barrier island vs. shellpile). Results revealed a dynamic system but provided no evidence that the dynamics were Markovian, i.e. the probability that a site was occupied in one year was not influenced by whether it had been occupied in the previous year. Nor did colony-level reproductive success the previous season seem to affect the probability of site occupancy. Site survival and recolonization rates were similar, and the estimated overall annual probability of a site being occupied was 0.59. Of the 25 sites that were used during the four-year period, 16 were used in one or two years only, and only three were used in all four years. Flooding and renesting were frequent in both habitat types in all years. The frequent flooding of nests on shellpiles argues for more effective management; augmentation with shell and sand to increase elevations as little as 20 cm could have reduced flooding at a number of sites. The low colonysite fidelity that we observed suggests that an effective management approach would be to provide a large number of sand and/or shellpile sites for use by nesting terns. Sites not used in one year may still be used in subsequent years.

The Auk↗

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