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At least 181 records · Page 10Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Lithospheric flexure under the Hawaiian volcanic load: Internal stresses and a broken plate revealed by earthquakes

Several lines of earthquake evidence indicate that the lithospheric plate is broken under the load of the island of Hawai`i, where the geometry of the lithosphere is circular with a central depression. The plate bends concave downward surrounding a stress-free hole, rather than bending concave upward as with past assumptions. Earthquake focal mechanisms show that the center of load stress and the weak hole is between the summits of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea where the load is greatest. The earthquake gap at 21 km depth coincides with the predicted neutral plane of flexure where horizontal stress changes sign. Focal mechanism P axes below the neutral plane display a striking radial pattern pointing to the stress center. Earthquakes above the neutral plane in the north part of the island have opposite stress patterns; T axes tend to be radial. The M 6.2 Honomu and M 6.7 Kiholo main shocks (both at 39 km depth) are below the neutral plane and show radial compression, and the M 6.0 Kiholo aftershock above the neutral plane has tangential compression. Earthquakes deeper than 20 km define a donut of seismicity around the stress center where flexural bending is a maximum. The hole is interpreted as the soft center where the lithospheric plate is broken. Kilauea's deep conduit is seismically active because it is in the ring of maximum bending. A simplified two-dimensional stress model for a bending slab with a load at one end yields stress orientations that agree with earthquake stress axes and radial P axes below the neutral plane. A previous inversion of deep Hawaiian focal mechanisms found a circular solution around the stress center that agrees with the model. For horizontal faults, the shear stress within the bending slab matches the slip in the deep Kilauea seismic zone and enhances outward slip of active flanks.

Hawaii↗
USGS2016

Forcing and variability of nonstationary rip currents

Surface wave transformation and the resulting nearshore circulation along a section of coast with strong alongshore bathymetric gradients outside the surf zone are modeled for a consecutive 4 week time period. The modeled hydrodynamics are compared to in situ measurements of waves and currents collected during the Nearshore Canyon Experiment and indicate that for the entire range of observed conditions, the model performance is similar to other studies along this stretch of coast. Strong alongshore wave height gradients generate rip currents that are observed by remote sensing data and predicted qualitatively well by the numerical model. Previous studies at this site have used idealized scenarios to link the rip current locations to undulations in the offshore bathymetry but do not explain the dichotomy between permanent offshore bathymetric features and intermittent rip current development. Model results from the month‐long simulation are used to track the formation and location of rip currents using hourly statistics, and results show that the direction of the incoming wave energy strongly controls whether rip currents form. In particular, most of the offshore wave spectra were bimodal and we find that the ratio of energy contained in each mode dictates rip current development, and the alongshore rip current position is controlled by the incident wave period. Additionally, model simulations performed with and without updating the nearshore morphology yield no significant change in the accuracy of the predicted surf zone hydrodyanmics indicating that the large‐scale offshore features (e.g., submarine canyon) predominately control the nearshore wave‐circulation system.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2015

Natural and unnatural oil slicks in the Gulf of Mexico

When wind speeds are 2 &ndash; 10 m s &minus;1 , reflective contrasts in the ocean surface make oil slicks visible to synthetic aperture radar (SAR) under all sky conditions. Neural network analysis of satellite SAR images quantified the magnitude and distribution of surface oil in the Gulf of Mexico from persistent, natural seeps and from the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) discharge. This analysis identified 914 natural oil seep zones across the entire Gulf of Mexico in pre-2010 data. Their &sim;0.1 &micro;m slicks covered an aggregated average of 775 km 2 . Assuming an average volume of 77.5 m 3 over an 8 &ndash; 24 h lifespan per oil slick, the floating oil indicates a surface flux of 2.5 &ndash; 9.4 &times; 10 4 m 3 y &minus;1 . Oil from natural slicks was regionally concentrated: 68%, 25%, 7%, and <1% of the total was observed in the NW, SW, NE and SE Gulf, respectively. This reflects differences in basin history and hydrocarbon generation. SAR images from 2010 showed that the 87-day DWH discharge produced a surface-oil footprint fundamentally different from background seepage, with an average ocean area of 11,200 km 2 (SD 5,028) and a volume of 22,600 m 3 (SD 5,411). Peak magnitudes of oil were detected during equivalent, &sim;14-day intervals around 23 May and 18 June, when wind speeds remained <5 m s &minus;1 . Over this interval, aggregated volume of floating oil decreased by 21%; area covered increased by 49% ( p &thinsp;<&thinsp;.1), potentially altering its ecological impact. The most likely causes were increased applications of dispersant and surface burning operations.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2016

Observations of wave transformation over a fringing coral reef and the importance of low-frequency waves and offshore water levels to runup, overwash, and coastal flooding

Many low-lying tropical islands are susceptible to sea level rise and often subjected to overwash and flooding during large wave events. To quantify wave dynamics and wave-driven water levels on fringing coral reefs, a 5 month deployment of wave gauges and a current meter was conducted across two shore-normal transects on Roi-Namur Island in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. These observations captured two large wave events that had waves with maximum heights greater than 6 m with peak periods of 16 s over the fore reef. The larger event coincided with a peak spring tide, leading to energetic, highly skewed infragravity (0.04&ndash;0.004 Hz) and very low frequency (0.004&ndash;0.001 Hz) waves at the shoreline, which reached heights of 1.0 and 0.7 m, respectively. Water surface elevations, combined with wave runup, reached 3.7 m above the reef bed at the innermost reef flat adjacent to the toe of the beach, resulting in flooding of inland areas. This overwash occurred during a 3 h time window that coincided with high tide and maximum low-frequency reef flat wave heights. The relatively low-relief characteristics of this narrow reef flat may further drive shoreline amplification of low-frequency waves due to resonance modes. These results (1) demonstrate how the coupling of high offshore water levels with low-frequency reef flat wave energetics can lead to large impacts along fringing reef-lined shorelines, such as island overwash, and (2) lend support to the hypothesis that predicted higher sea levels will lead to more frequent occurrences of these extreme events, negatively impacting coastal resources and infrastructure.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2016

Probabilistic assessment of erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

We assess erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico by identifying interdependencies among oceanographic drivers and probabilistically modeling the resulting potential for coastal change. Wave and water level observations are used to determine relationships between six hydrodynamic parameters that influence total water level and therefore erosion and flooding, through consideration of a wide range of univariate distribution functions and multivariate elliptical copulas. Using these relationships, we explore how different our interpretation of the present-day erosion/flooding risk could be if we had seen more or fewer extreme realizations of individual and combinations of parameters in the past by simulating 10,000 physically and statistically consistent sea-storm time series. We find that seasonal total water levels associated with the 100 year return period could be up to 3 m higher in summer and 0.6 m higher in winter relative to our best estimate based on the observational records. Impact hours of collision and overwash—where total water levels exceed the dune toe or dune crest elevations—could be on average 70% (collision) and 100% (overwash) larger than inferred from the observations. Our model accounts for non-stationarity in a straightforward, non-parametric way that can be applied (with little adjustments) to many other coastlines. The probabilistic model presented here, which accounts for observational uncertainty, can be applied to other coastlines where short record lengths limit the ability to identify the full range of possible wave and water level conditions that coastal mangers and planners must consider to develop sustainable management strategies.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2016

The geologic history of Margaritifer basin, Mars

In this study, we investigate the fluvial, sedimentary, and volcanic history of Margaritifer basin and the Uzboi-Ladon-Morava (ULM) outflow channel system. This network of valleys and basins spans more than 8000 km in length, linking the fluvially dissected southern highlands and Argyre Basin with the northern lowlands via Ares Vallis. Compositionally, thermophysically, and morphologically distinct geologic units are identified and are used to place critical relative stratigraphic constraints on the timing of geologic processes in Margaritifer basin. Our analyses show that fluvial activity was separated in time by significant episodes of geologic activity, including the widespread volcanic resurfacing of Margaritifer basin and the formation of chaos terrain. The most recent fluvial activity within Margaritifer basin appears to terminate at a region of chaos terrain, suggesting possible communication between surface and subsurface water reservoirs. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of these observations on our current knowledge of Martian hydrologic evolution in this important region.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2016

The potassic sedimentary rocks in Gale Crater, Mars, as seen by ChemCam Onboard Curiosity

The Mars Science Laboratory rover Curiosity encountered potassium-rich clastic sedimentary rocks at two sites in Gale Crater, the waypoints Cooperstown and Kimberley. These rocks include several distinct meters thick sedimentary outcrops ranging from fine sandstone to conglomerate, interpreted to record an ancient fluvial or fluvio-deltaic depositional system. From ChemCam Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) chemical analyses, this suite of sedimentary rocks has an overall mean K 2 O abundance that is more than 5 times higher than that of the average Martian crust. The combined analysis of ChemCam data with stratigraphic and geographic locations reveals that the mean K 2 O abundance increases upward through the stratigraphic section. Chemical analyses across each unit can be represented as mixtures of several distinct chemical components, i.e., mineral phases, including K-bearing minerals, mafic silicates, Fe-oxides, and Fe-hydroxide/oxyhydroxides. Possible K-bearing minerals include alkali feldspar (including anorthoclase and sanidine) and K-bearing phyllosilicate such as illite. Mixtures of different source rocks, including a potassium-rich rock located on the rim and walls of Gale Crater, are the likely origin of observed chemical variations within each unit. Physical sorting may have also played a role in the enrichment in K in the Kimberley formation. The occurrence of these potassic sedimentary rocks provides additional evidence for the chemical diversity of the crust exposed at Gale Crater.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2016

Stratigraphy of the north polar layered deposits of Mars from high-resolution topography

The stratigraphy of the layered deposits of the polar regions of Mars is theorized to contain a record of recent climate change linked to insolation changes driven by variations in the planet's orbital and rotational parameters. In order to confidently link stratigraphic signals to insolation periodicities, a description of the stratigraphy is required based on quantities that directly relate to intrinsic properties of the layers. We use stereo Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) from the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) to derive a characteristic of North Polar Layered Deposits (NPLD) strata that can be correlated over large distances: the topographic protrusion of layers exposed in troughs, which is a proxy for the layers&rsquo; resistance to erosion. Using a combination of image analysis and a signal-matching algorithm to correlate continuous depth-protrusion signals taken from DTMs at different locations, we construct a stratigraphic column that describes the upper ~500&thinsp;m of at least 7% of the area of the NPLD, and find accumulation rates that vary by factors of up to two. We find that, when coupled with observations of exposed layers in orbital images, the topographic expression of the strata is consistently continuous through large distances in the top 300 &ndash; 500&thinsp;m of the NPLD, suggesting it is better related to intrinsic layer properties than brightness alone.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2016

Sediment supply versus local hydraulic controls on sediment transport and storage in a river with large sediment loads

The Rio Grande in the Big Bend region of Texas, USA, and Chihuahua and Coahuila, Mexico, undergoes rapid geomorphic changes as a result of its large sediment supply and variable hydrology; thus, it is a useful natural laboratory to investigate the relative importance of flow strength and sediment supply in controlling alluvial channel change. We analyzed a suite of sediment transport and geomorphic data to determine the cumulative influence of different flood types on changing channel form. In this study, physically based analyses suggest that channel change in the Rio Grande is controlled by both changes in flow strength and sediment supply over different spatial and temporal scales. Channel narrowing is primarily caused by substantial deposition of sediment supplied to the Rio Grande during tributary-sourced flash floods. Tributary floods have large suspended-sediment concentrations, occur for short durations, and attenuate rapidly downstream in the Rio Grande, depositing much of their sediment in downstream reaches. Long-duration floods on the mainstem have the capacity to enlarge the Rio Grande, and these floods, released from upstream dams, can either erode or deposit sediment in the Rio Grande depending upon the antecedent in-channel sediment supply and the magnitude and duration of the flood. Geomorphic and sediment transport analyses show that the locations and rates of sand erosion and deposition during long-duration floods are most strongly controlled by spatial changes in flow strength, largely through changes in channel slope. However, spatial differences in the in-channel sediment supply regulate sediment evacuation or accumulation over time in long reaches (greater than a kilometer).

Big Bend National Park↗
USGS2015

End-of-winter snow depth variability on glaciers in Alaska

A quantitative understanding of snow thickness and snow water equivalent (SWE) on glaciers is essential to a wide range of scientific and resource management topics. However, robust SWE estimates are observationally challenging, in part because SWE can vary abruptly over short distances in complex terrain due to interactions between topography and meteorological processes. In spring 2013, we measured snow accumulation on several glaciers around the Gulf of Alaska using both ground- and helicopter-based ground-penetrating radar surveys, complemented by extensive ground truth observations. We found that SWE can be highly variable (40% difference) over short spatial scales (tens to hundreds of meters), especially in the ablation zone where the underlying ice surfaces are typically rough. Elevation provides the dominant basin-scale influence on SWE, with gradients ranging from 115 to 400 mm/100 m. Regionally, total accumulation and the accumulation gradient are strongly controlled by a glacier's distance from the coastal moisture source. Multiple linear regressions, used to calculate distributed SWE fields, show that robust results require adequate sampling of the true distribution of multiple terrain parameters. Final SWE estimates (comparable to winter balances) show reasonable agreement with both the Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model climate data set (9–36% difference) and the U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Benchmark Glaciers (6–36% difference). All the glaciers in our study exhibit substantial sensitivity to changing snow-rain fractions, regardless of their location in a coastal or continental climate. While process-based SWE projections remain elusive, the collection of ground-penetrating radar (GPR)-derived data sets provides a greatly enhanced perspective on the spatial distribution of SWE and will pave the way for future work that may eventually allow such projections.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

Illuminating wildfire erosion and deposition patterns with repeat terrestrial lidar

Erosion following a wildfire is much greater than background erosion in forests because of wildfire-induced changes to soil erodibility and water infiltration. While many previous studies have documented post-wildfire erosion with point and small plot-scale measurements, the spatial distribution of post-fire erosion patterns at the watershed scale remains largely unexplored. In this study lidar surveys were collected periodically in a small, first-order drainage basin over a period of 2 years following a wildfire. The study site was relatively steep with slopes ranging from 17° to > 30°. During the study period, several different types of rain storms occurred on the site including low-intensity frontal storms (2.4 mm h −1 ) and high-intensity convective thunderstorms (79 mm h −1 ). These storms were the dominant drivers of erosion. Erosion resulting from dry ravel and debris flows was notably absent at the site. Successive lidar surveys were subtracted from one another to obtain digital maps of topographic change between surveys. The results show an evolution in geomorphic response, such that the erosional response after rain storms was strongly influenced by the previous erosional events and pre-fire site morphology. Hillslope and channel roughness increased over time, and the watershed armored as coarse cobbles and boulders were exposed. The erosional response was spatially nonuniform; shallow erosion from hillslopes (87% of the study area) contributed 3 times more sediment volume than erosion from convergent areas (13% of the study area). However, the total normalized erosion depth (volume/area) was highest in convergent areas. From a detailed understanding of the spatial locations of erosion, we made inferences regarding the processes driving erosion. It appears that hillslope erosion is controlled by rain splash (for detachment) and overland flow (for transport and quasi-channelized erosion), with the sites of highest erosion corresponding to locations with the lowest roughness. By contrast, in convergent areas we found erosion caused by overland flow. Soil erosion was locally interrupted by immobile objects such as boulders, bedrock, or tree trunks, resulting in a patchy erosion network with increasing roughness over time.

Colorado↗
USGS2015

Role of ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks in recent ice wedge degradation and stabilization

Ground ice is abundant in the upper permafrost throughout the Arctic and fundamentally affects terrain responses to climate warming. Ice wedges, which form near the surface and are the dominant type of massive ice in the Arctic, are particularly vulnerable to warming. Yet processes controlling ice wedge degradation and stabilization are poorly understood. Here we quantified ice wedge volume and degradation rates, compared ground ice characteristics and thermal regimes across a sequence of five degradation and stabilization stages and evaluated biophysical feedbacks controlling permafrost stability near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. Mean ice wedge volume in the top 3&thinsp;m of permafrost was 21%. Imagery from 1949 to 2012 showed thermokarst extent (area of water-filled troughs) was relatively small from 1949 (0.9%) to 1988 (1.5%), abruptly increased by 2004 (6.3%) and increased slightly by 2012 (7.5%). Mean annual surface temperatures varied by 4.9&deg;C among degradation and stabilization stages and by 9.9&deg;C from polygon center to deep lake bottom. Mean thicknesses of the active layer, ice-poor transient layer, ice-rich intermediate layer, thermokarst cave ice, and wedge ice varied substantially among stages. In early stages, thaw settlement caused water to impound in thermokarst troughs, creating positive feedbacks that increased net radiation, soil heat flux, and soil temperatures. Plant growth and organic matter accumulation in the degraded troughs provided negative feedbacks that allowed ground ice to aggrade and heave the surface, thus reducing surface water depth and soil temperatures in later stages. The ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks greatly complicate efforts to assess permafrost responses to climate change.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2015

Tidal and seasonal variations in calving flux observed with passive seismology

The seismic signatures of calving events, i.e., calving icequakes, offer an opportunity to examine calving variability with greater precision than is available with other methods. Here using observations from Yahtse Glacier, Alaska, we describe methods to detect, locate, and characterize calving icequakes. We combine these icequake records with a coincident, manually generated record of observed calving events to develop and validate a statistical model through which we can infer iceberg sizes from the properties of calving icequakes. We find that the icequake duration is the single most significant predictor of an iceberg's size. We then apply this model to 18 months of seismic recordings and find elevated iceberg calving flux during the summer and fall and a pronounced lull in calving during midwinter. Calving flux is sensitive to semidiurnal tidal stage. Large calving events are tens of percent more likely during falling and low tides than during rising and high tides, consistent with a view that deeper water has a stabilizing influence on glacier termini. Multiple factors affect the occurrence of mechanical fractures that ultimately lead to iceberg calving. At Yahtse Glacier, seismology allows us to demonstrate that variations in the rate of submarine melt are a dominant control on iceberg calving rates at seasonal timescales. On hourly to daily timescales, tidal modulation of the normal stress against the glacier terminus reveals the nonlinear glacier response to changes in the near-terminus stress field.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics

Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.

Maryland and Virginia↗
USGS2016

Evidence for nonuniform permafrost degradation after fire in boreal landscapes

Fire can be a significant driver of permafrost change in boreal landscapes, altering the availability of soil carbon and nutrients that have important implications for future climate and ecological succession. However, not all landscapes are equally susceptible to fire-induced change. As fire frequency is expected to increase in the high latitudes, methods to understand the vulnerability and resilience of different landscapes to permafrost degradation are needed. We present a combination of multiscale remote sensing, geophysical, and field observations that reveal details of both near-surface (<1 m) and deeper (>1 m) impacts of fire on permafrost. Along 11 transects that span burned-unburned boundaries in different landscape settings within interior Alaska, subsurface electrical resistivity and nuclear magnetic resonance data indicate locations where permafrost appears to be resilient to disturbance from fire, areas where warm permafrost conditions exist that may be most vulnerable to future change, and also areas where permafrost has thawed. High-resolution geophysical data corroborate remote sensing interpretations of near-surface permafrost and also add new high-fidelity details of spatial heterogeneity that extend from the shallow subsurface to depths of about 10 m. Results show that postfire impacts on permafrost can be variable and depend on multiple factors such as fire severity, soil texture, soil moisture, and time since fire.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

A glacier runoff extension to the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System

A module to simulate glacier runoff, PRMSglacier, was added to PRMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System), a distributed-parameter, physical-process hydrological simulation code. The extension does not require extensive on-glacier measurements or computational expense but still relies on physical principles over empirical relations as much as is feasible while maintaining model usability. PRMSglacier is validated on two basins in Alaska, Wolverine, and Gulkana Glacier basin, which have been studied since 1966 and have a substantial amount of data with which to test model performance over a long period of time covering a wide range of climatic and hydrologic conditions. When error in field measurements is considered, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of streamflow are 0.87 and 0.86, the absolute bias fractions of the winter mass balance simulations are 0.10 and 0.08, and the absolute bias fractions of the summer mass balances are 0.01 and 0.03, all computed over 42 years for the Wolverine and Gulkana Glacier basins, respectively. Without taking into account measurement error, the values are still within the range achieved by the more computationally expensive codes tested over shorter time periods.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2016

A synthesis of the basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet

The basal thermal state of an ice sheet (frozen or thawed) is an important control upon its evolution, dynamics and response to external forcings. However, this state can only be observed directly within sparse boreholes or inferred conclusively from the presence of subglacial lakes. Here we synthesize spatially extensive inferences of the basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet to better constrain this state. Existing inferences include outputs from the eight thermomechanical ice-flow models included in the SeaRISE effort. New remote-sensing inferences of the basal thermal state are derived from Holocene radiostratigraphy, modern surface velocity and MODIS imagery. Both thermomechanical modeling and remote inferences generally agree that the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream and large portions of the southwestern ice-drainage systems are thawed at the bed, whereas the bed beneath the central ice divides, particularly their west-facing slopes, is frozen. Elsewhere, there is poor agreement regarding the basal thermal state. Both models and remote inferences rarely represent the borehole-observed basal thermal state accurately near NorthGRIP and DYE-3. This synthesis identifies a large portion of the Greenland Ice Sheet (about one third by area) where additional observations would most improve knowledge of its overall basal thermal state.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗