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An international code comparison study on coupled thermal, hydrologic and geomechanical processes of natural gas hydrate-bearing sediments

Geologic reservoirs containing gas hydrate occur beneath permafrost environments and within marine continental slope sediments, representing a potentially vast natural gas source. Numerical simulators provide scientists and engineers with tools for understanding how production efficiency depends on the numerous, interdependent (coupled) processes associated with potential production strategies for these gas hydrate reservoirs. Confidence in the modeling and forecasting abilities of these gas hydrate reservoir simulators (GHRSs) grows with successful comparisons against laboratory and field test results, but such results are rare, particularly in natural settings. The hydrate community recognized another approach to building confidence in the GHRS: comparing simulation results between independently developed and executed computer codes on structured problems specifically tailored to the interdependent processes relevant for gas hydrate-bearing systems. The United States Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE/NETL), sponsored the first international gas hydrate code comparison study, IGHCCS1, in the early 2000s. IGHCCS1 focused on coupled thermal and hydrologic processes associated with producing gas hydrates from geologic reservoirs via depressurization and thermal stimulation. Subsequently, GHRSs have advanced to model more complex production technologies and incorporate geomechanical processes into the existing framework of coupled thermal and hydrologic modeling. This paper contributes to the validation of these recent GHRS developments by providing results from a second GHRS code comparison study, IGHCCS2, also sponsored by DOE/NETL. IGHCCS2 includes participants from an international collection of universities, research institutes, industry, national laboratories, and national geologic surveys. Study participants developed a series of five benchmark problems principally involving gas hydrate processes with geomechanical components. The five problems range from simple geometries with analytical solutions to a representation of the world’s first offshore production test of methane hydrates, which was conducted with the depressurization method off the coast of Japan. To identify strengths and limitations in the various GHRSs, study participants submitted solutions for the benchmark problems and discussed differing results via teleconferences. The GHRSs evolved over the course of IGHCCS2 as researchers modified their simulators to reflect new insights, lessons learned, and suggested performance enhancements. The five benchmark problems, final sample solutions, and lessons learned that are presented here document the study outcomes and serve as a reference guide for developing and testing gas hydrate reservoir simulators.

Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology↗

Waste rice for waterfowl in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Flooded rice fields are important foraging habitats for waterfowl in the lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV). Waste rice previously was abundant in late autumn (140?492 kg/ha), but early planting and harvest dates in recent years may have increased losses of waste rice during autumn before waterfowl arrive. Research in Mississippi rice fields revealed waste-rice abundance decreased 79?99% during autumns 1995?1996. To determine if this trend existed throughout the MAV, we used multistage sampling (MSS) to estimate waste-rice abundance during September?December 2000?2002. Averaged over years, mean abundance of waste rice decreased 71% between harvest ((x) over bar = 271.0 kg/ha, CV = 13% n = 3 years) and late autumn ( (x) over bar = 78.4 kg/ha, CV = 15% n = 3). Among 15 models formulated to explain variation in rice abundance among fields and across years, the best model indicated abundance of waste rice in late autumn differed between harvester types (i.e., conventional > stripper header) and was positively related to initial waste-rice abundance after harvest. Because abundance of waste rice in late autumn was less than previous estimates in all 3 years, we concluded that waterfowl conservationists have overestimated carrying capacity of rice fields for wintering waterfowl by 52?83% and recommend 325 duck-use days/ha (DUDs) as a revised estimate. We suggest monitoring advances in rice harvest dates to determine when new surveys are warranted and recommend increased management of moist-soil wetlands to compensate for decreased rice abundance.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Preface: Marine gas hydrate reservoir systems along the eastern continental margin of India: Results of the National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02

The 2015 India National Gas Hydrate Program (NGHP) Expedition 02 was conducted to obtain new information on the occurrence of gas hydrate systems and to advance the understanding of geologic controls on the formation of gas hydrate accumulations in the offshore of India. The ultimate goal of the NGHP effort is to assess the energy resource potential of marine gas hydrates in India. The Guest Editors for this special thematic issue of the Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology (JMPG) have worked with more than 100 scientists and engineers to prepare the 45 individual reports included in this special issue to address the operational and technical contributions of the NGHP-02 Expedition. This thematic issue on natural gas hydrates in the offshore of India is built on the foundation of five previous JMPG thematic issues that focused on the scientific results of other marine gas hydrate expeditions. These foundational contributions include: (1) the “Scientific Results of the 2005 USDOE-Chevron JIP Drilling for Methane Hydrates Objectives in the Gulf of Mexico” (Volume 25, Issue 9, November 2008), (2) the “Resource and Hazard Implications of Gas Hydrates in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: Results of the 2009 Joint Industry Project Leg II Drilling Expedition” (Volume 34, Issue 1, June 2012), (3) the “Scientific Results of the Second Gas Hydrate Drilling Expedition in the Ulleung Basin (UBGH2), East Sea of Korea” (Volume 47, November 2013), (4) “Geologic Implications of Gas Hydrates in the Offshore of India: Results of the National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 01” (Volume 58, Part A, December 2014), and (5) “Gas Hydrate Drilling in Eastern Nankai” (Volume 66, Part 2, September 2015). The NGHP-02 Expedition was conducted from 03-March- 2015 to 28-July- 2015 off the eastern coast of India. The first two months of the expedition were dedicated to establishing 25 new research sites that featured the drilling of a dedicated downhole logging hole at each site. The next three months of the NGHP-02 Expedition were dedicated to sediment coring and other downhole measurement operations at 10 of the sites established during the expedition’s first phase. The results of downhole logging, coring and formation pressure testing operations during NGHP-02 have confirmed the presence of large, highly concentrated gas hydrate accumulations in coarse-grained, sand-rich depositional systems throughout large portions of the Krishna-Godavari Basin. Post expedition research and reporting efforts included collaborative analysis of the unprecedented number of shipboard acquired data sets and core samples obtained during NGHP-02. The presentation of the scientific results of the NGHP-02 Expedition has culminated in the publication of the NGHP Expedition 02 Scientific Results Volume, which is represented by this Special Issue of the Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology. This Special Issue features a series of four reports that summarize the operational and scientific results of NGHP-02 Expedition that are presented in the 41 technical reports included this Special Issue. The first summary report, “India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02: Operational and Technical Summary,” focuses on reviewing the tools and operational procedures for the NGHP-02 Expedition that led to the acquisition of an unprecedented amount of high-quality downhole logging and core data from numerous pore-filling, fracture-filling, and sediment-displacement type gas hydrate occurrences. The summary report titled “India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 Summary of Scientific Results: Gas Hydrate Systems Along the Eastern Continental Margin of India” documents gas hydrate occurrences discovered during the NGHP-02 Expedition and examines geologic controls on the gas hydrate systems along the Eastern Continental Margin of India.

Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology↗

Typology development of earthquake displays in free-choice learning environments, to inform earthquake early warning education in the United States

Free-choice learning environments, such as museums, national parks, interpretive trails, and visitor centers, are trusted sources of information in their communities and support lifelong learning. Earthquake education in these spaces creates awareness of earthquake hazards and risk in areas where people live or visit and, in turn, may increase engagement in preparedness behavior. The ShakeAlert® Earthquake Early Warning System helps publics prepare by warning in advance of shaking from significant earthquakes along the West Coast of the United States. ShakeAlert can minimize earthquake damage by prompting automated actions (e.g., slowing trains, shutting off water valves) and prompting personal protective actions like “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” to significantly reduce damage, injury, and loss of life. Individuals and communities must have a basic understanding of earthquake hazards, as well as an awareness of ShakeAlert technology, to know how to respond if they feel shaking or receive an alert. Currently, there is a lack of contemporary scholarship on how free-choice learning environments approach earthquake education through exhibits and displays. We analyzed a sample of existing earthquake exhibits and their themes in the United States and explored how different display types are uniquely engaging. We found that most displays did not include information about how to prepare for an earthquake or associated protective actions. From this and the development of the typology, our research posits a foundational framework for how best to incorporate place-based learning on earthquakes and early warning into centers of free-choice learning which may apply to a range of other natural hazards and will enhance public awareness and safety.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗

Anthropogenic land‐use change intensifies the effect of low flows on stream fishes

As ecosystems experience simultaneous disturbances, it is critical to understand how multiple stressors interact to affect ecological change. Land‐use change and extreme flow events are two important stressors that could interact to affect fish populations. We evaluated the individual and interactive effects of discharge and land‐use change associated with oil and natural gas development on populations of two stream fishes over a 7‐year period. We used repeated‐state (i.e. abundance trends) and rate (i.e. colonization and persistence) responses to advance our understanding of flow‐ecology relationships in a multiple‐stressor framework. Overall, fish abundance, colonization and persistence declined as discharge decreased. The effect of land‐use change associated with oil and natural gas development differed between species, with the abundance of Mottled Sculpin declining and Mountain Sucker increasing as land‐use change increased. We found both synergistic and antagonistic interactions between discharge and land‐use change. Land‐use change intensified the effect of low flows for Mottled Sculpin and lead to greater variability in responses to flow for Mountain Sucker. These differences between species' responses are likely due to differences in their physiological tolerances and behavioural adaptations to disturbance. Synthesis and applications . Our research provides empirical evidence for the complex interactions that can arise between discharge and anthropogenic land‐use change. Management efforts to reduce inputs of sediments and chemical contaminants associated with land‐use change (e.g. silt fences, vegetative buffers) and promote quality refuge habitats (i.e. in‐stream habitat restoration) could help mitigate the negative effects of low‐flow extremes on stream fishes. Further development of flow‐ecology relationships in a multiple‐stressor framework will help guide management of stream fishes, and provide a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying responses of different species.

Wyoming↗

Virtual special issue of recent advances on gas hydrates scientific drilling in Alaska

Gas hydrate refers to a non-stoichiometric clathrate that forms spontaneously in the natural environment whenever sufficient quantities of gases of appropriate size (most commonly methane) interact with abundant water under specific conditions of temperature and pressure. (1,2) Such conditions occur wherever the shallow geothermal gradient has been suppressed by either deepwater or thick permafrost, allowing for relatively low temperatures to coexist with elevated pressures. The volume of gas hydrate on Earth is difficult to constrain, (3) but it is sufficient that gas hydrate is a meaningful potential component of (1) the long-term natural cycling of carbon, (2) the nearer term environmental changes in response to warming climates, (4) and (3) future energy supply systems. Since the initial recognition of gas hydrate as an abundant component in nature in the late 1960s, a series of scientific drilling expeditions conducted by both the Integrated Ocean Discovery Program (and successors) and national research and development programs in Canada, Japan, China, the United States, South Korea, and others (5) have explored the occurrence and nature of gas hydrates. In particular, the desire for expanded energy supply options to support the economic development and energy security for nations around the globe is currently motivating a broad range of laboratory and numerical simulation studies in support of an ongoing series of field-based scientific tests of the potential commercial viability of gas extraction from natural gas hydrate deposits. (6)

Journal of Energy & Fuels↗

Techniques to improve ecological interpretability of black box machine learning models

Statistical modeling of ecological data is often faced with a large number of variables as well as possible nonlinear relationships and higher-order interaction effects. Gradient boosted trees (GBT) have been successful in addressing these issues and have shown a good predictive performance in modeling nonlinear relationships, in particular in classification settings with a categorical response variable. They also tend to be robust against outliers. However, their black-box nature makes it difficult to interpret these models. We introduce several recently developed statistical tools to the environmental research community in order to advance interpretation of these black-box models. To analyze the properties of the tools, we applied gradient boosted trees to investigate biological health of streams within the contiguous USA, as measured by a benthic macroinvertebrate biotic index. Based on these data and a simulation study, we demonstrate the advantages and limitations of partial dependence plots (PDP), individual conditional expectation (ICE) curves and accumulated local effects (ALE) in their ability to identify covariate–response relationships. Additionally, interaction effects were quantified according to interaction strength (IAS) and Friedman’s H 2 "> H 2 statistic. Interpretable machine learning techniques are useful tools to open the black-box of gradient boosted trees in the environmental sciences. This finding is supported by our case study on the effect of impervious surface on the benthic condition, which agrees with previous results in the literature. Overall, the most important variables were ecoregion, bed stability, watershed area, riparian vegetation and catchment slope. These variables were also present in most identified interaction effects. In conclusion, graphical tools (PDP, ICE, ALE) enable visualization and easier interpretation of GBT but should be supported by analytical statistical measures. Future methodological research is needed to investigate the properties of interaction tests. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗

Microgravity as a tool for eruption forecasting

Detection of gravity change over time has been used to better understand magmatic activity at volcanoes for decades, but the technique is not commonly applied to forecasting eruptions. In contrast, other tools, notably seismic, deformation, and gas monitoring have made exceptional strides in the past several decades and form the foundation for eruption forecasting, especially during the final buildup to an eruption. Reasons for this gap include the high cost and fragile nature of gravity instruments, and the ambiguous nature of many results. But this is changing. Instrumentation is becoming more robust and accurate, expenses may soon diminish thanks to technological advances, and the record of success in tracking subsurface mass change (either from magma or hydrothermal fluids) in volcanic areas is growing. Here we review how gravity change can be applied to forecasting volcanic eruptions across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. We argue that microgravity has untapped potential as a forecasting tool in three specific ways: constraining probabilistic assessments, detecting long-term mass change that may occur prior to the onset of vigorous seismicity and deformation, and identifying transient activity that indicates magma ascent or other changes that immediately precede new eruptions or changes in ongoing eruptions. As with any volcano-monitoring method, microgravity has strengths and weaknesses, but the varied forms of data collection—for instance, campaign versus continuous, and relative versus absolute—offer the potential to record a broad range of signals at volcanoes with a diversity of magmatic systems. The technique is currently underutilized; additional attention, investment, and application at more volcanoes could help to realize its promise.

Hawai'i↗

Ice wedge degradation and stabilization impacts water budgets and nutrient cycling in Arctic trough ponds

Trough ponds are ubiquitous features of Arctic landscapes and an important component of freshwater aquatic ecosystems. Permafrost thaw causes ground subsidence, creating depressions that gather water, creating ponds. Permafrost thaw also releases solutes and nutrients, which may fertilize these newly formed ponds. We measured water budget elements and chloride, ammonium, and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) across a chronosequence of trough ponds representing different stages of ice wedge degradation and stabilization. We developed a coupled hydrologic and biogeochemical model to explore how ice wedge degradation affects hydrology and nutrient availability in trough ponds in the advanced degradation stages (DAs), which are characterized by deep troughs with warmer temperatures relative to the other stages. DAs experienced greater evaporation than the other stages, and subsurface inflows entered the DAs from a wide area. Chloride accumulated in the ponds with time since thaw, implying that subsurface fluxes are delivering solutes from the thawing permafrost. Ammonium accumulated at high rates in the initial degradation stage and was seasonally depleted over the summer in all degradation stages. Ammonium trends in the DAs were consistent with high concentration inflows and in‐pond assimilation at rates between 0.37 and 2.0 mg N m −2 day −1 . Seasonal DON trends indicated that the accumulation of recalcitrant organic matter may eventually limit aquatic ecosystem production and foster pond infilling. These results provide direct evidence of nutrient release from thawing permafrost and the utilization of these nutrients by Arctic trough pond ecosystems and highlight infilling as a mechanism by which Arctic surface waters may be lost

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

Quantifying the rapid evolution of a nourishment project with video imagery

Spatially and temporally high-resolution video imagery was combined with traditional surveyed beach profiles to investigate the evolution of a rapidly eroding beach nourishment project. Upham Beach is a 0.6-km beach located downdrift of a structured inlet on the west coast of Florida. The beach was stabilized in seaward advanced position during the 1960s and has been nourished every 4-5 years since 1975. During the 1996 nourishment project, 193,000 m 3 of sediment advanced the shoreline as much as 175 m. Video images were collected concurrent with traditional surveys during the 1996 nourishment project to test video imaging as a nourishment monitoring technique. Video imagery illustrated morphologic changes that were unapparent in survey data. Increased storminess during the second (El Nin??o) winter after the 1996 project resulted in increased erosion rates of 0.4 m/d (135.0 m/y) as compared with 0.2 m/d (69.4 m/y) during the first winter. The measured half-life, the time at which 50% of the nourished material remains, of the nourishment project was 0.94 years. A simple analytical equation indicates reasonable agreement with the measured values, suggesting that project evolution follows a predictable pattern of exponential decay. Long-shore planform equilibration does not occur on Upham Beach, rather sediment diffuses downdrift until 100% of the nourished material erodes. The wide nourished beach erodes rapidly due to the lack of sediment bypassing from the north and the stabilized headland at Upham Beach that is exposed to wave energy.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

Can lava flow like water? Assessing applications of critical flow theory to channelized basaltic lava flows

Flowing lava and water have dramatically different physical properties but can form similar hydraulic structures, including undular hydraulic jumps, or standing wave trains. In water flows, undular hydraulic jumps are evidence of critical flow (Froude number ∼1) and open-channel hydraulic theory provides a powerful tool for estimating flow depth and velocity. Monitoring these parameters in an active lava channel is inherently challenging, but essential for calculating lava discharge (effusion rate), a primary control on the rate of flow front advance and ultimate flow runout distance. We analyze undular hydraulic jumps in both water and lava flows to assess the conditions under which they form and, by extension, the potential use of critical flow theory to estimate, in real time, lava flow velocity, depth, and discharge. Experimental data for water flows show that these structures mark the transition from supercritical to subcritical flow. Undular hydraulic jumps in the near-vent lava channel of the 2018 lower East Rift Zone eruption of Kīlauea, Hawaiʻi also reflect critical flow conditions; their wavelengths scale with flow depth and velocity, consistent with hydraulic theory. Calculated lava effusion rates are similar to estimates made using more traditional approaches (Jeffreys', 1925, https://doi.org/10.1080/14786442508634662 , equation based on lava viscosity, density, and channel slope) and with lava volumes derived from topographic-change mapping. From this we conclude that critical flow phenomena show great potential to track flow dynamics and inform hazard assessment for a wide range of geophysical fluids.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Earth Surface↗

Ground surface deformation patterns, magma supply, and magma storage at Okmok volcano, Alaska, from InSAR analysis: 2. Coeruptive deflation, July-August 2008

A hydrovolcanic eruption near Cone D on the floor of Okmok caldera, Alaska, began on 12 July 2008 and continued until late August 2008. The eruption was preceded by inflation of a magma reservoir located beneath the center of the caldera and ∼3 km below sea level (bsl), which began immediately after Okmok's previous eruption in 1997. In this paper we use data from several radar satellites and advanced interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) techniques to produce a suite of 2008 coeruption deformation maps. Most of the surface deformation that occurred during the eruption is explained by deflation of a Mogi-type source located beneath the center of the caldera and 2–3 km bsl, i.e., essentially the same source that inflated prior to the eruption. During the eruption the reservoir deflated at a rate that decreased exponentially with time with a 1/ e time constant of ∼13 days. We envision a sponge-like network of interconnected fractures and melt bodies that in aggregate constitute a complex magma storage zone beneath Okmok caldera. The rate at which the reservoir deflates during an eruption may be controlled by the diminishing pressure difference between the reservoir and surface. A similar mechanism might explain the tendency for reservoir inflation to slow as an eruption approaches until the pressure difference between a deep magma production zone and the reservoir is great enough to drive an intrusion or eruption along the caldera ring-fracture system.

Alaska↗

Small-footprint, waveform-resolving lidar estimation of submerged and sub-canopy topography in coastal environments

The experimental advanced airborne research lidar (EAARL) is an airborne lidar instrument designed to map near-shore submerged topography and adjacent land elevations simultaneously. This study evaluated data acquired by the EAARL system in February 2003 and March 2004 along the margins of Tampa Bay, Florida, USA, to map bare-earth elevations under a variety of vegetation types and submerged topography in shallow, turbid water conditions. A spatial filtering algorithm, known as the iterative random consensus filter (IRCF), was used to extract ground elevations from a point cloud of processed last-surface EAARL returns. Filtered data were compared with acoustic and field measurements acquired in shallow submerged (0-2.5 m water depth) and sub-canopy environments. Root mean square elevation errors (RMSEs) ranged from 10-14 cm for submerged topography to 16-20 cm for sub-canopy topography under a variety of vegetation communities. The effect of lidar sampling angles and global positioning system (GPS) satellite configuration on accuracy was investigated. Results show high RMSEs for data acquired during periods of poor satellite configuration and at large sampling angles along the edges of the lidar scan. The results presented in this study confirm the cross-environment capability of a green-wavelength, waveform-resolving lidar system, making it an ideal tool for mapping coastal environments.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

Evaluation of an experimental LiDAR for surveying a shallow, braided, sand-bedded river

Reaches of a shallow (<1.0m), braided, sand-bedded river were surveyed in 2002 and 2005 with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Experimental Advanced Airborne Research LiDAR (EAARL) and concurrently with conventional survey-grade, real-time kinematic, global positioning system technology. The laser pulses transmitted by the EAARL instrument and the return backscatter waveforms from exposed sand and submerged sand targets in the river were completely digitized and stored for postflight processing. The vertical mapping accuracy of the EAARL was evaluated by comparing the ellipsoidal heights computed from ranging measurements made using an EAARL terrestrial algorithm to nearby (<0.5m apart) ground-truth ellipsoidal heights. After correcting for apparent systematic bias in the surveys, the root mean square error of these heights with the terrestrial algorithm in the 2002 survey was 0.11m for the 26 measurements taken on exposed sand and 0.18m for the 59 measurements taken on submerged sand. In the 2005 survey, the root mean square error was 0.18m for 92 measurements taken on exposed sand and 0.24m for 434 measurements on submerged sand. In submerged areas the waveforms were complicated by reflections from the surface, water column entrained turbidity, and potentially the riverbed. When applied to these waveforms, especially in depths greater than 0.4m, the terrestrial algorithm calculated the range above the riverbed. A bathymetric algorithm has been developed to approximate the position of the riverbed in these convolved waveforms and preliminary results are encouraging. ?? 2007 ASCE.

Journal of Hydraulic Engineering↗

Comparison of elevation and remote sensing derived products as auxiliary data for climate surface interpolation

Climate models may be limited in their inferential use if they cannot be locally validated or do not account for spatial uncertainty. Much of the focus has gone into determining which interpolation method is best suited for creating gridded climate surfaces, which often a covariate such as elevation (Digital Elevation Model, DEM) is used to improve the interpolation accuracy. One key area where little research has addressed is in determining which covariate best improves the accuracy in the interpolation. In this study, a comprehensive evaluation was carried out in determining which covariates were most suitable for interpolating climatic variables (e.g. precipitation, mean temperature, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature). We compiled data for each climate variable from 1950 to 1999 from approximately 500 weather stations across the Western United States (32° to 49° latitude and −124.7° to −112.9° longitude). In addition, we examined the uncertainty of the interpolated climate surface. Specifically, Thin Plate Spline (TPS) was used as the interpolation method since it is one of the most popular interpolation techniques to generate climate surfaces. We considered several covariates, including DEM, slope, distance to coast (Euclidean distance), aspect, solar potential, radar, and two Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). A tenfold cross-validation was applied to determine the uncertainty of the interpolation based on each covariate. In general, the leading covariate for precipitation was radar, while DEM was the leading covariate for maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures. A comparison to other products such as PRISM and WorldClim showed strong agreement across large geographic areas but climate surfaces generated in this study (ClimSurf) had greater variability at high elevation regions, such as in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

International Journal of Climatology↗

Sediment transport and deposition on a river-dominated tidal flat: An idealized model study

A 3-D hydrodynamic model is used to investigate how different size classes of river-derived sediment are transported, exported and trapped on an idealized, river-dominated tidal flat. The model is composed of a river channel flanked by sloping tidal flats, a configuration motivated by the intertidal region of the Skagit River mouth in Washington State, United States. It is forced by mixed tides and a pulse of freshwater and sediment with various settling velocities. In this system, the river not only influences stratification but also contributes a significant cross-shore transport. As a result, the bottom stress is strongly ebb-dominated in the channel because of the seaward advance of strong river flow as the tidal flats drain during ebbs. Sediment deposition patterns and mass budgets are sensitive to settling velocity. The lateral sediment spreading scales with an advective distance (settling time multiplied by lateral flow speed), thereby confining the fast settling sediment classes in the channel. Residual sediment transport is landward on the flats, because of settling lag, but is strongly seaward in the channel. The seaward transport mainly occurs during big ebbs and is controlled by a length scale ratio L d / X WL , where L d is a cross-shore advective distance (settling time multiplied by river outlet velocity), and X WL is the immersed cross-shore length of the intertidal zone. Sediment trapping requires L d / X WL < 1, leading to more trapping for the faster settling classes. Sensitivity studies show that including stratification and reducing tidal range both favor sediment trapping, whereas varying channel geometries and asymmetry of tides has relatively small impacts. Implications of the modeling results on the south Skagit intertidal region are discussed.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

Numerical models of caldera deformation: Effects of multiphase and multicomponent hydrothermal fluid flow

Ground surface displacement (GSD) in large calderas is often interpreted as resulting from magma intrusion at depth. Recent advances in geodetic measurements of GSD, notably interferometric synthetic aperture radar, reveal complex and multifaceted deformation patterns that often require complex source models to explain the observed GSD. Although hydrothermal fluids have been discussed as a possible deformation agent, very few quantitative studies addressing the effects of multiphase flow on crustal mechanics have been attempted. Recent increases in the power and availability of computing resources allow robust quantitative assessment of the complex time-variant thermal interplay between aqueous fluid flow and crustal deformation. We carry out numerical simulations of multiphase (liquid-gas), multicomponent (H 2O-CO2) hydrothermal fluid flow and poroelastic deformation using a range of realistic physical parameters and processes. Hydrothermal fluid injection, circulation, and gas formation can generate complex, temporally and spatially varying patterns of GSD, with deformation rates, magnitudes, and geometries (including subsidence) similar to those observed in several large calderas. The potential for both rapid and gradual deformation resulting from magma-derived fluids suggests that hydrothermal fluid circulation may help explain deformation episodes at calderas that have not culminated in magmatic eruption.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Grain-size segregation and levee formation in geophysical mass flows

Data from large-scale debris-flow experiments are combined with modeling of particle-size segregation to explain the formation of lateral levees enriched in coarse grains. The experimental flows consisted of 10 m 3 of water-saturated sand and gravel, which traveled ∼80 m down a steeply inclined flume before forming an elongated leveed deposit 10 m long on a nearly horizontal runout surface. We measured the surface velocity field and observed the sequence of deposition by seeding tracers onto the flow surface and tracking them in video footage. Levees formed by progressive downslope accretion approximately 3.5 m behind the flow front, which advanced steadily at ∼2 m s −1 during most of the runout. Segregation was measured by placing ∼600 coarse tracer pebbles on the bed, which, when entrained into the flow, segregated upwards at ∼6–7.5 cm s −1 . When excavated from the deposit these were distributed in a horseshoe-shaped pattern that became increasingly elevated closer to the deposit termination. Although there was clear evidence for inverse grading during the flow, transect sampling revealed that the resulting leveed deposit was strongly graded laterally, with only weak vertical grading. We construct an empirical, three-dimensional velocity field resembling the experimental observations, and use this with a particle-size segregation model to predict the segregation and transport of material through the flow. We infer that coarse material segregates to the flow surface and is transported to the flow front by shear. Within the flow head, coarse material is overridden, then recirculates in spiral trajectories due to size-segregation, before being advected to the flow edges and deposited to form coarse-particle-enriched levees.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗