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At least 181 records · Page 10Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Assessing the sustainability of Pacific walrus harvest in a changing environment

Harvest sustainability is a primary goal of wildlife management and conservation, and in a changing world, it is increasingly important to consider environmental drivers of population dynamics alongside harvest in cohesive management plans. This is particularly pertinent for harvested species that acutely experience effects of climate change. The Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ), a crucial subsistence resource for Indigenous communities, is simultaneously subject to rapid habitat loss associated with diminishing sea ice and an increasing anthropogenic footprint in the Arctic. We developed a theta-logistic population modeling-management framework to evaluate various harvest scenarios combined with 4 potential climate and disturbance scenarios (ranging from optimistic to pessimistic, based largely on sea ice projections from general circulation models) to simulate Pacific walrus population dynamics to the end of the twenty-first century, focusing on the independent-aged female subset of the population. We considered 2 types of harvest strategies: 1) state-dependent harvest scenarios wherein we calculated harvest as a percentage of the population and updated annual harvests at set intervals as the population was reassessed, and 2) annually consistent harvest scenarios wherein annual harvest levels remain consistent into the future. All climate and disturbance scenarios indicated declines of varying severity in Pacific walrus abundance to the end of the twenty-first century, even in the absence of harvest. However, we found that a state-dependent annual harvest of 1.23% of the independent-aged female subset of the population (e.g., 1,280 independent-aged females harvested in 2020, similar to contemporary harvest levels) met our criterion for sustainability under all climate and disturbance scenarios, considering a medium risk tolerance level of 25%. This indicates that the present rate of Pacific walrus harvest is sustainable and will continue to be—provided the population is assessed at regular intervals and harvest is adapted to match changes in population dynamics. Our simulations indicate that a sustainable annually-consistent harvest is also possible but only at low levels if the population declines as expected. Applying a constant annual harvest of 1,280 independent-aged females failed to meet our criterion for sustainability under 3 of the 4 climate and disturbance scenarios we evaluated and had a higher probability of quasi-extinction than an equivalent state-dependent harvest scenario (1.23%). We highlight the importance of state-dependent management strategies and suggest our modeling framework is useful for managing harvest sustainability in a changing climate.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2025

Supporting dryland restoration success with applied ecological forecasting of seeding outcomes

Introduction Ecological restoration is increasingly used to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem services. In drylands of the western United States (US), post-disturbance restoration often involves seeding treatments to promote the recovery of native plant communities. Spatial and temporal variability in environmental conditions influences plant establishment and contributes to low restoration success in certain locations and years. Objectives Here, we discuss how forecasts for plant establishment can be developed and delivered to help land managers anticipate the impacts of near-term (months to years) environmental conditions on restoration. Methods We developed an ecological forecast system that predicts the outcome of restoration seeding by integrating weather forecasts, an ecosystem water balance model, and plant establishment models. Results In this article, we focus on a conceptual approach to developing, delivering, and applying ecological forecasts for restoration. We illustrate the potential of this approach by adapting existing ecological models to build an initial version of a decision support tool that delivers a species-specific ecological forecast for big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) establishment. Integrating ecological forecasts into plans for restoration seeding presents opportunities to anticipate and account for environmental variability. Conclusions Finally, we discuss how connecting research, forecast delivery, and management can maximize the impact of ecological forecasts on restoration success.

Idaho, Nevada↗
USGS2026

Mississippi’s resiliency and changing environmental conditions

Mississippi is experiencing shifts in environmental conditions, many of which are expected to intensify in the coming decades, and will have important implications for ecosystems, species, and natural resource management across the state. Historical climate analyses and downscaled projections summarized for the state’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) level III Ecoregions show that Mississippi will likely face increases in extremely hot days, more intense heatwaves, greater evapotranspiration, and reductions in cold-season extremes. Temperature trends indicate that while Mississippi has warmed relatively little over the last century, recent years have been among the warmest on record. Projections suggest substantial increases in the number of days with maximum temperatures at or above 95°F across all Ecoregions, particularly under higher warming scenarios. Correspondingly, the number of freezing nights is expected to decline, with statewide decreases of 7–21 days depending on the global warming level and timeframe. These combined patterns are likely to reshape habitat conditions, influence species’ thermal stress, and alter ecological processes such as soil moisture retention and stream temperature regimes. Mississippi’s hydrological systems are also expected to be significantly affected. Extreme rainfall events, particularly the most intense 1% of precipitation days, are projected to increase across the state, raising risks of flooding, erosion, and altered stream flow. Coastal Mississippi faces additional stress from sea‑level rise, which is already contributing to more frequent high‑tide flooding; projections show continued increases in inundation risk throughout the century. These flooding patterns, combined with stronger hurricane rainfall rates and the potential for landfalling storms to stall, pose ongoing threats to coastal ecosystems and communities. The state is also vulnerable to extreme weather hazards such as tornadoes. Recent research shows a geographic shift in tornado activity toward the Southeast, with Mississippi experiencing some of the nation’s greatest increases in favorable tornado days and nighttime tornado frequency—hazards that have direct implications for wildlife, habitat stability, and human safety. Drought conditions may intensify as well: higher temperatures and increased evapotranspiration during dry spells could worsen water stress regardless of uncertainty in average annual precipitation. These changing environmental conditions have important consequences for Mississippi’s Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN). Vulnerability assessments and ecological niche models indicate that several fish, mussel, crayfish, plant, amphibian, bird, and mammal species may face heightened stress due to warming temperatures, shifting hydrology, habitat loss, and increases in extreme events. For example, many cold‑water and moisture‑dependent species in the state’s rivers and wetlands are already near their thermal limits, and further warming could reduce suitable habitat. Birds breeding in bottomland hardwood forests, such as the Prothonotary Warbler, are increasingly susceptible to nest loss from flooding. Similarly, species like the Louisiana Black Bear may encounter higher risks from habitat inundation and shifting food availability. The “A Closer Look” section underscores the vulnerability of the Mississippi Alluvial Plain—one of the state’s most ecologically rich yet heavily altered Ecoregions. Its bottomland hardwood forests, wetlands, and floodplain habitats support diverse wildlife but are increasingly threatened by rising temperatures, hydrological changes, development pressures, and compounded disturbances. These habitats provide critical ecosystem services such as water filtration, flood attenuation, and biodiversity support, making their conservation particularly urgent under future conditions. Collectively, these findings indicate that Mississippi’s ongoing and projected environmental changes present both challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. Incorporating adaptation strategies into the State Wildlife Action Plan will be essential for sustaining habitats, mitigating risks, and supporting the long‑term resilience of Mississippi’s wildlife and ecosystems.

Mississippi↗
USGS2018

Agriculture — A river runs through it — The connections between agriculture and water quality

Sustaining the quality of the Nation’s water resources and the health of our diverse ecosystems depends on the availability of sound water-resources data and information to develop effective, science-based policies. Effective management of water resources also brings more certainty and efficiency to important economic sectors. Taken together, these actions lead to immediate and longterm economic, social, and environmental benefits that make a difference to the lives of the almost 400 million people projected to live in the United States by 2050. In 1991, Congress established the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) to address where, when, why, and how the Nation’s water quality has changed, or is likely to change in the future, in response to human activities and natural factors. Since then, NAWQA has been a leading source of scientific data and knowledge used by national, regional, state, and local agencies to develop science-based policies and management strategies to improve and protect water resources used for drinking water, recreation, irrigation, energy development, and ecosystem needs. Plans for the third decade of NAWQA (2013–23) address priority water-quality issues and science needs identified by NAWQA stakeholders, such as the Advisory Committee on Water Information and the National Research Council, and are designed to meet increasing challenges related to population growth, increasing needs for clean water, and changing land-use and weather patterns. This report is one of a series of publications, The Quality of Our Nation’s Waters , which describes major findings of the NAWQA Project on water-quality issues of regional and national concern and provides science-based information for assessing and managing the quality of our groundwater resources. Other reports in this series focus on occurrence and distribution of nutrients, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds in streams and groundwater, the effects of contaminants and stream-flow alteration on the condition of aquatic communities in streams, and on the quality of groundwater from private domestic and public supply wells. Each reports builds toward a more comprehensive understanding of the quality of regional and national water resources. All NAWQA reports are available online ( https://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/bib/ ). We hope this publication will provide you with insights and information to meet your water-resource needs and will foster increased citizen awareness and involvement in the protection and restoration of our Nation’s waters. The information in this report is intended primarily for those interested or involved in resource management and protection, conservation, regulation, and policymaking at the regional and national levels.

Circular↗
USGS2020

Framework for a long-term strategic plan for the Capital Area Groundwater Conservation Commission

The Capital Area Groundwater Conservation Commission oversees the use of groundwater in six parishes in Louisiana. In carrying out its statutory responsibilities and authorities, the Commission recognizes the complexity of its decisions: the long-term objectives it is seeking are multifaceted; the actions it can choose from are numerous and interdependent; and the understanding of the hydrogeological, economic, and social systems affected by its actions is limited. To navigate this complexity, the Commission is developing a long-term strategic plan to guide its activities and to serve as a primary mode of communication to stakeholders and the public. The long-term strategic plan is intended to consider actions and outcomes over at least the next 50 years within the 6 parishes in the Commission’s jurisdiction and related to all the confined aquifers in the 3000 feet below the district. The primary purposes of the plan are to promote long-term sustainability of groundwater extraction, continuity of operations of the Commission, long-term planning by water users, and clear communication with the public. The plan will describe specific management actions to be taken over time by the Commission, and the conditions under which those actions are to be taken. It will include intermediate milestones the Commission intends to achieve on the way toward achieving its long-term objectives. The actions under consideration include regulation and monitoring of groundwater withdrawal, mitigation of the environmental effects of withdrawal, support of relevant scientific studies, as well as work with partner agencies to implement measures to conserve, develop, and supplement groundwater resources. The plan will have greater detail about short-term actions than mid-term and long-term actions, and the Commission anticipates updating the plan periodically to adapt to changing circumstances and knowledge. To develop its long-term strategic plan, the Commission is working with The Water Institute of the Gulf and the U.S. Geological Survey using a facilitated process based on the principles of structured decision making (Gregory et al., 2012). This document outlines the framework for the strategic plan by describing the legal, economic, and scientific context for the plan, the fundamental objectives the Commission seeks to achieve in the long term, and the strategic alternatives it is considering.

Report↗
USGS2018

Understanding the influence of nutrients on stream ecosystems in agricultural landscapes

Sustaining the quality of the Nation’s water resources and the health of our diverse ecosystems depends on the availability of sound water-resources data and information to develop effective, science-based policies. Effective management of water resources also brings more certainty and efficiency to important economic sectors. Taken together, these actions lead to immediate and long-term economic, social, and environmental benefits that make a difference to the lives of the almost 400 million people projected to live in the United States by 2050. In 1991, Congress established the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) to address where, when, why, and how the Nation’s water quality has changed, or is likely to change in the future, in response to human activities and natural factors. Since then, NAWQA has been a leading source of scientific data and knowledge used by national, regional, State, and local agencies to develop science-based policies and management strategies to improve and protect water resources used for drinking water, recreation, irrigation, energy development, and ecosystem needs ( https://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/applications/ ). Plans for the third decade of NAWQA (2013–23) address priority water-quality issues and science needs identified by NAWQA stakeholders, such as the Advisory Committee on Water Information and the National Research Council, and are designed to meet increasing challenges related to population growth, increasing needs for clean water, and changing land-use and weather patterns. Excess nutrients are a pervasive problem of streams, lakes, and coastal waters. The current report, “The Quality of Our Nation’s Waters—Understanding the Effects of Nutrients on Stream Ecosystems in Agricultural Landscapes,” presents a summary of results from USGS investigations conducted from 2003 to 2011 on processes that influence nutrients and how nutrient enrichment can alter biological components of agricultural streams. This study included collecting data from 232 sites distributed among eight study areas. This report summarizes findings on processes that influence nutrients and how nutrient enrichment can alter biological communities in agricultural streams. These findings are relevant to local, State, regional, and national decision-makers involved in efforts to (1) better understand the influence of nutrients on agricultural streams, (2) develop nutrient criteria for streams and rivers, (3) reduce nutrients to streams and downstream receiving waters, and (4) develop tools for tracking nutrient and biological conditions following nutrient reduction strategies. All NAWQA reports are available online at https://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/bib/ . We hope this publication will provide you with insights and information to meet your water-resource needs and will foster increased citizen awareness and involvement in the protection and restoration of our Nation’s waters. The information in this report is intended primarily for those interested or involved in resource management and protection, conservation, regulation, and policymaking at the regional and national levels.

Central Columbia-Yakima River Basins, Great River ↗
USGS2021

Nitrogen in the Chesapeake Bay watershed—A century of change, 1950–2050

Foreword Sustaining the quality of the Nation’s water resources and the health of our diverse ecosystems depends on the availability of sound water-resources data and information to develop effective, science-based policies. Effective management of water resources also brings more certainty and efficiency to important economic sectors. Taken together, these actions lead to immediate and long-term economic, social, and environmental benefits that will make a difference to the lives of the almost 400 million people projected to live in the United States by 2050. The Chesapeake Bay is the largest and most productive estuary in the United States and is a vital environmental and economic resource. Approximately half of the water volume of the Chesapeake Bay originates from streams and rivers that drain the 64,243 mi 2 Chesapeake Bay watershed. The Bay and its tributaries have been degraded by excessive nutrients, such as nitrogen, from contributing watersheds. Inputs of nitrogen to the Bay lead to increased algal growth, decreased dissolved oxygen, and declining fisheries. In 2000, the Chesapeake Bay was listed as impaired under the Clean Water Act and Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) for nutrients and sediment have been established to assist with management actions aimed at nutrient reductions. Effective nutrient management requires an understanding of past, present, and future nutrient sources, fate, and transport in the watershed. The Chesapeake Bay community has been a pioneer in science, management, and regulation to improve water quality. Factors like climate, hydrology, source inputs, and management controls play a vital role in determining the delivery and magnitude of nitrogen inputs to the Bay. Science in the form of monitoring data, predictive tools, and interpretive reports can help inform decisions to better balance the use and control of nitrogen in coastal areas. The findings in this report can contribute to effective management of the Bay and its watershed by providing a synthesis of the understanding of how human activities and environmental change in the watershed in the past, present, and future will influence the export of nitrogen to the Bay. We hope this publication will provide you with insights and information to meet your water resource needs and will foster increased civilian awareness and involvement in the protection and restoration of our Nation’s waters. The information in this report is intended primarily for those interested or involved in resource management and protection, conservation, regulation, and policymaking at the regional and national levels.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗
USGS2024

The economics of decarbonizing Costa Rica's agriculture, forestry and other land uses sectors

In 2018, Costa Rica demonstrated its commitment to the Paris Agreement and published its Decarbonization Plan for achieving zero net emissions by the year 2050. We evaluate the impacts of the country's strategy for decarbonizing its Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) sectors by coupling the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling framework with high-resolution spatial land use-land cover change and ecosystem services modeling (IEEM+ESM). Our results show that decarbonization of AFOLU would simultaneously enhance carbon storage, water purification, water regulation and erosion mitigation ecosystem services. Moreover, the positive cumulative wealth impact of decarbonization would be approximately US$7.27 billion by 2050 while lifting an additional 3810 individuals out of poverty. From a public investment perspective, decarbonization would have a fiscally neutral impact with the economic benefits sufficient in magnitude to off-set policy implementation costs and generate economic returns of over US$852 million when changes in natural capital stocks and environmental quality are considered. This application to Costa Rica is the first integrated economy-wide analysis of a growing number of decarbonization plans globally. The IEEM+ESM approach provides an integrated framework for analyzing decarbonization plans and can be used to refine AFOLU mitigation strategies to capitalize on synergies and minimize negative trade-offs across the three dimensions of wealth and sustainable economic development, namely economy, society and the environment.

Ecological Economics↗
USGS2013

It's time for bold new approaches to link delta science and policymaking

California’s Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta is widely recognized as a highly damaged ecosystem. The Delta is also emblematic of a growing sense worldwide that society needs to do a better job of using scientific knowledge to guide conservation and resource management policies. Fortunately, we now have an unprecedented opportunity to get it right in building structures that support effective science–policy linkages in the Delta. By adopting bold steps to implement a “one Delta, one science” approach for a new Delta Science Plan, California can become a leading example of how to tackle the global problem of rapid ecological change and biodiversity loss. In this essay, we first describe the current paradox—continued environmental declines despite considerable investments in science and policy actions—and the high stakes of gambling with failure. Next, we explore why it is so hard to use scientific knowledge to design and implement policies that meet society’s sustainability goals. We then outline promising ways to overcome these obstacles, drawing on recent experiences. We conclude with thoughts on how to leverage this experience to develop a bold new approach to Delta science.

California↗
USGS2012

Benefits and risks of adopting the global code of practice for recreational fisheries

Recreational fishing constitutes the dominant or sole use of many fish stocks, particularly in freshwater ecosystems in Western industrialized countries. However, despite their social and economic importance, recreational fisheries are generally guided by local or regional norms and standards, with few comprehensive policy and development frameworks existing across jurisdictions. We argue that adoption of a recently developed Global Code of Practice (CoP) for Recreational Fisheries can provide benefits for moving recreational fisheries toward sustainability on a global scale. The CoP is a voluntary document, specifically framed toward recreational fisheries practices and issues, thereby complementing and extending the United Nation's Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries by the Food and Agricultural Organization. The CoP for Recreational Fisheries describes the minimum standards of environmentally friendly, ethically appropriate, and—depending on local situations—socially acceptable recreational fishing and its management. Although many, if not all, of the provisions presented in the CoP are already addressed through national fisheries legislation and state-based fisheries management regulations in North America, adopting a common framework for best practices in recreational fisheries across multiple jurisdictions would further promote their long-term viability in the face of interjurisdictional angler movements and some expanding threats to the activity related to shifting sociopolitical norms.

Fisheries↗
USGS2009

Setting the stage for a sustainable Pacific salmon fisheries strategy

Salmon and steelhead Oncorhynchus spp., have been keystone species for ecosystems and human cultures of the North American Pacific coast for cons. Yet, in the past century, many populations have been greatly diminished and some are now extinct-the result of a combination of factors, including habitat loss and degradation, overfishing, natural variability in salmon production, negative effects of artificial propagation, and weaknesses in institutional and regulatory structures. We argue that a major shift is required, from the egocentric environmental approach (wherein each part of the ecosystem is managed as a unit) to the ecocentric ecosystem approach (wherein all parts are integrated for management). A management framework is proposed that contains-for each management unit such as a watershed-four elements: management goals; management objectives, ecosystem indicators; and a coordinated action plan. We also describe the Sustainable Fisheries Strategy, a consultative process for developing an ecosystem-based approach toward achieving sustainable Pacific salmon and steelhead populations and fisheries. This book is one of three important underpinnings of the Strategy; the other two are the Strategy itself and a manual being developed to guide community-based programs embracing the principles of sustainable fisheries. This book contains important historical perspectives as well as numerous innovative ideas for moving toward ecosystem-oriented, sustainable management of Pacific salmon and steelhead.

Book chapter↗
USGS2013

Ecosystem stressors in southern Nevada

Southern Nevada ecosystems and their associated resources are subject to a number of global and regional/local stressors that are affecting the sustainability of the region. Global stressors include elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations and associated changes in temperature and precipitation patterns and amount, solar radiation, and nutrient cycles (Smith and others 2009b). Global stressors are ubiquitous in nature and interact both directly and indirectly with regional or local stressors. Regional/local stressors in southern Nevada include: population growth and urbanization and associated increases in nitrogen deposition, energy development, water development, and recreation; increased effects of insects and disease; ongoing effects of livestock, wild horse and burro grazing; new and expanding invasive species; and altered fire regimes. This chapter provides background information on the stressors affecting southern Nevada's ecosystems that is needed to address Goal 1.0 in the SNAP Science Research Strategy, which is to restore, sustain, and enhance southern Nevada's ecosystems (Turner and others 2009). Human population growth and changes in land use strongly affect the type and magnitude of local/regional stressors. From 1960 to 2010, Nevada's growth rate was the highest in the nation (www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-01.pdf). Clark County has experienced particularly high growth, with a population increase of greater than 40 percent since the 2000 census. Factors like land ownership, historic and current land use, proximity to human and energy developments, and desirability for recreation all influence the level of human-caused stress. The strong elevation/climate gradients and large difference in the environmental characteristics of southern Nevada ecosystems (fig. 1.2; Chapter 1) have a major influence on both patterns of land use and the dominant stressors for different ecosystem types. Shifts in land use related to population growth, urbanization, and energy development and largely focused in lower elevation ecosystems including sagebursh, blackbrush and shadscale, and Mojave Desert scrub. Water divisions influence riparian/aquatic ecosystems and springs, while groundwater pumping also has the potential to affect ecosystems that characterize lower valleys including Mojave Desert scrub. Recreational uses influence all ecosystems, and wild horse and burro use and livestock grazing affect all but alpine and subalpine ecosystems. Insects and disease, as well as invasive species are widespread stressors. Fire is limited to ecosystems with sufficient fuels to carry fire and is strongly influence by invasive species in lower elevation Mojave Desert scrub, blackbrush and shadscale, and sagebursh ecosystems. This chapter address aspects of several of the Goals and Sub-goals listed in the SNAP Science Research Strategy (table 1.3; Turner and others 2009). Altered fire regimes, invasive species, land use practices, and management actions are addressed in Goal 1 -- Sustain, Restore, and Enhance Southern Nevada's Ecosystems. The effects of these stressors on sensitive species and habitat are specifically addressed in Sub-goal 1.4 -- Sustain and Enhance Southern Nevada's Biotic Communities, to Preserve Biodiversity and Maintain Populations. Anthropogenic factors, such a recreation and urbanization, are referred to in Goal 2-- Provide for Responsible Use of Southern Nevada;s Lands in a Manner that Preserve Heritage Resources and Promotes an Understanding of Human Interaction with the Landscape.

Nevada↗
USGS2017

Mineral supply for sustainable development requires resource governance

Successful delivery of the United Nations sustainable development goals and implementation of the Paris Agreement requires technologies that utilize a wide range of minerals in vast quantities. Metal recycling and technological change will contribute to sustaining supply, but mining must continue and grow for the foreseeable future to ensure that such minerals remain available to industry. New links are needed between existing institutional frameworks to oversee responsible sourcing of minerals, trajectories for mineral exploration, environmental practices, and consumer awareness of the effects of consumption. Here we present, through analysis of a comprehensive set of data and demand forecasts, an interdisciplinary perspective on how best to ensure ecologically viable continuity of global mineral supply over the coming decades.

Nature↗
USGS2015

Resilience and risk: a demographic model to inform conservation planning for polar bears

Climate change is having widespread ecological effects, including loss of Arctic sea ice. This has led to listing of the polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) and other ice-dependent marine mammals under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Methods are needed to evaluate the effects of climate change on population persistence to inform recovery planning for listed species. For polar bears, this includes understanding interactions between climate and secondary factors, such as subsistence harvest, which provide economic, nutritional, or cultural value to humans. We developed a matrix-based demographic model for polar bears that can be used for population viability analysis and to evaluate the effects of human-caused removals. This model includes density-dependence (the potential for a declining environmental carrying capacity), density-independent limitation, and sex- and age-specific harvest vulnerabilities. We estimated values of adult female survival (0.93–0.96), recruitment (number of yearling cubs per adult female; 0.1–0.3), and carrying capacity (>250 animals) that must be maintained for a hypothetical population to achieve a 90-percent probability of persistence over 100 years. We also developed a state-dependent management framework, based on harvest theory and the potential biological removal method, by linking the demographic model to simulated population assessments. This framework can be used to estimate the maximum sustainable rate of human-caused removals, including subsistence harvest, which maintains a population at its maximum net productivity level. The framework also can be used to calculate a recommended sustainable harvest rate, which generally is lower than the maximum sustainable rate and depends on management objectives, the precision and frequency of population data, and risk tolerance. The historical standard 4.5-percent harvest rate for polar bears, at a 2:1 male-to-female ratio, is reasonable under many biological and management conditions, although lower or higher rates may be appropriate in some cases. Our modeling results suggest that harvest of polar bears is unlikely to accelerate population declines that result from declining carrying capacity caused by sea-ice loss, provided that several conditions are met: (1) the sustainable harvest rate reflects the population’s intrinsic growth rate, and the corresponding harvest level is obtained by applying this rate to an estimate of population size; (2) the sustainable harvest rate reflects the quality of population data (e.g., lower harvest when data are poor); and (3) the level of human-caused removals can be adjusted. Finally, our results suggest that stopgap measures (e.g., further reduction or cessation of harvest when the population size is less than a critical threshold) may be necessary to minimize the incremental risk associated with harvest, if environmental conditions are deteriorating rapidly. We suggest that the demographic model and approaches presented here can serve as a template for conservation planning for polar bears and other species facing similar challenges.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2019

Preface—Evaluating the response of critical zone processes to human impacts with sediment source fingerprinting

1) Background: Critical Zone Processes in the Anthropocene The Earth’s Critical Zone encompasses a suite of interconnected processes in the near-surface lithosphere, pedosphere, biosphere, atmosphere, and hydrosphere (Brantley et al., 2007; Lin, 2010) (Fig. 1). Processes and interactions both within and between these various Critical Zone components supports life-sustaining ecosystem services and resources that establish the foundation for humanity (NRC, 2001). This includes the formation production of fertile soils, flourishing vegetation, productive rivers, lakes and oceans, and our life-sustaining atmosphere (Gaillardet, 2014; Guo and Lin, 2016). Rapid population growth, land use intensification, and global environmental change are disturbing many of these fundamental Critical Zone processes. More than half of the Earth’s terrestrial surface is now impacted by anthropogenic activities (e.g., clearing, grazing, plowing, mining, and logging) (Hooke et al., 2012; Richter and Mobley, 2009). These changes are so widespread and pervasive that the great acceleration of socioeconomic development that occurred around 1950 (Fig. 2) has been recommended to delineate the dawn of the Anthropocene (Waters et al., 2016). Although the utility of adopting and delineating the Anthropocene as the current epoch is subject to debate (Crutzen, 2002; Ruddiman et al., 2015; Smith and Zeder, 2013), the concept effectively highlights both the nature and the extent of our global impact on Earth’s Critical Zone. Soil forming processes and ecosystem services provided by the pedosphere are central to the Critical Zone (Banwart et al., 2011; Lin, 2010). Many of these processes have been disturbed by the agricultural intensification that coincided with the great acceleration resulting in unsustainable land use practices now outpacing soil formation processes (Brantley et al., 2007). As agricultural landscapes now cover an area equivalent to what was scoured during the last glacial maximum (Amundson et al., 2007), the broad-scale intensification of anthropogenic activities has resulted in significant on- and off-site impacts. On-site, soil loss has resulted in decreases in soil fertility and agricultural yields (Ladha et al., 2009) threatening the ability to feed the world’s growing population (Brantley et al., 2007). Off-site, the excess delivery of particulate matter downstream is degrading riverine, lacustrine, and estuarine ecosystems (Bilotta and Brazier, 2008; Clark, 1985; Owens et al., 2005). The challenge, as noted by Brantley et al., (2007), is that despite our society having over 10,000 years of experience working with soils, our conceptual and quantitative models remain inadequate at predicting Critical Zone dynamics under current conditions. Notwithstanding growing pressure for improved environmental management, we still have a limited capacity to predict changes in the Critical Zone in response to anthropogenic activities owing to the multiple spatial and temporal scales at which these complex processes and feedbacks are manifest. As river basin systems are impacted by many of these processes, a deep understanding of soil-sediment continuum dynamics may provide a valuable framework for evaluating the disturbance response of Critical Zone processes. Understanding these processes may also provide land and resource managers with the information necessary to manage both the on-site and off-site effects of accelerated soil erosion.

Journal of Soils and Sediments↗
USGS2019

Integrated hydrologic modeling of the Salinas River, California, for sustainable water management

The Salinas River is the largest river in California’s Central Coast region. Groundwater resources of the Salinas River basin are used to meet water supply needs, including crop irrigation and municipal water supply. Two large multipurpose reservoirs also supply irrigation and municipal water uses. Historical imbalances between supply and demand have resulted in sinking groundwater levels, seawater intrusion, regulatory actions on pumping, adjudication, and requirements for minimum in-stream fish flows. Present needs include finding replacement water supplies and improving watershed management to comply with legal mandates, adapt to future climate variability and landuse conversions, and improve environmental conditions. The Salinas Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (SVIHM) was developed to help water managers evaluate and adjust to projected impacts on water supplies and demands in the Salinas Valley watershed caused by changes in land use, population, and climate. The SVIHM includes four modeling components: (1) the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), (2) the Hydrologic Simulation Program – FORTRAN (HSPF), (3) MODFLOW - One Water Hydrologic Model (MF-OWHM), and (4) the Surface Water Operations (SWO) package. The BCM and HSPF components compose the Salinas Valley Watershed Model (SVWM). The 4,530 square-mile (mi2) SVWM domain encompasses the entire Salinas River watershed, as well as coastal drainages adjacent to the Salinas River outflow, and includes two separate and connected HSPF model domains, the 2,540 mi2 upper Salinas River and the 1,990 mi2 lower Salinas River models. SVWM (1) simulates the water budget for the entire Salinas River basin containing both the SVIHM domain as well as the mountainous terrain of the tributary headwater areas not included in the SVIHM; and (2) was used to develop the 148 boundary inflows for the SVIHM. Simulated evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest component of the water budget after precipitation, with a 71-year average basin-wide ET of 13.9 in/yr, compared to the basin-wide average precipitation of 18.4 in/yr. Simulated ET ranges from 15 to 29 in/yr along the western side of the SVWM to less than 10 in/yr throughout the valley floor and in the southeast part of the Salinas River watershed. The simulated total 71-year average inflow to the SVIHM was 890 ft3/sec (about 640,000 acre-feet per year), with the highest average inflow of 270 ft3/sec simulated for the Nacimiento River; whereas, the simulated 71-year average streamflow at the mouth of the Salinas River was only about 190 ft3/sec, indicating that most of the streamflow generated in the Salinas River basin is lost to channel seepage. The lack of sustained baseflow causes streamflow to be highly sensitive to the temporal variability in precipitation, especially during the drier periods, and this increases the importance of developing adequate reservoir management, flow augmentation, and conjunctive water use scenarios for potential future drought periods and potentially increased temporal variability in precipitation.

California↗
USGS2013

Serious games experiment toward agent-based simulation

We evaluate the potential for serious games to be used as a scientifically based decision-support product that supports the United States Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission--to provide integrated, unbiased scientific information that can make a substantial contribution to societal well-being for a wide variety of complex environmental challenges. Serious or pedagogical games are an engaging way to educate decisionmakers and stakeholders about environmental challenges that are usefully informed by natural and social scientific information and knowledge and can be designed to promote interactive learning and exploration in the face of large uncertainties, divergent values, and complex situations. We developed two serious games that use challenging environmental-planning issues to demonstrate and investigate the potential contributions of serious games to inform regional-planning decisions. Delta Skelta is a game emulating long-term integrated environmental planning in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, that incorporates natural hazards (flooding and earthquakes) and consequences for California water supplies amidst conflicting water interests. Age of Ecology is a game that simulates interactions between economic and ecologic processes, as well as natural hazards while implementing agent-based modeling. The content of these games spans the USGS science mission areas related to water, ecosystems, natural hazards, land use, and climate change. We describe the games, reflect on design and informational aspects, and comment on their potential usefulness. During the process of developing these games, we identified various design trade-offs involving factual information, strategic thinking, game-winning criteria, elements of fun, number and type of players, time horizon, and uncertainty. We evaluate the two games in terms of accomplishments and limitations. Overall, we demonstrated the potential for these games to usefully represent scientific information within challenging environmental and ecosystem-management contexts and to provide an interactive way of learning about the complexity of interactions between people and natural systems. Further progress on the use of pedagogical games to fulfill the USGS mission will require collaboration among scientists, game developers, educators, and stakeholders. We conclude that as the USGS positions itself to communicate and convey the results of multiple science strategies, including natural-resource security and sustainability, pedagogical game development and agent-based modeling offer a means to (1) establish interdisciplinary and collaborative teams with a focused integrated outcome; (2) contribute to the modeling of interaction, feedback, and adaptation of ecosystems; and (3) enable social learning through a broadly appealing and increasingly sophisticated medium.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2004

Preventing, controlling, and managing alien species introduction for the health of aquatic and marine ecosystems

The introduction and spread of invasive species is an emerging global problem. As economic and ecological impacts continue to grow, there will be an increasing need to develop innovative solutions and global partnerships to combat the increasing rate of invasions and their accompanying impacts. Threats to sustainable fisheries in North America associated with alien species come from many global directions and sources and can be deliberate or the unintended consequence of other actions. Decisions about the role of sustainable fisheries in protecting and restoring the health of aquatic ecosystems become even more complex when economic and social factors are considered along with environmental impacts, because many intentionally introduced species also have associated economic and community costs and benefits. Actions designed to prevent or control alien species in an aquatic ecosystem are often complicated by these nonenvironmental factors as well as public perception and opinion. Aquatic ecosystems are disturbed to varying degrees by alien species, including disease organisms. Prevention is the first and best line of defense. Determining likely pathways and effective countermeasures is more cost-effective than either eradication or control. Our ability to quickly identify new species and their associated risk to ecosystems is critical in designing and implementing effective control and management actions. Lack of infrastructure and necessary resources, clear-cut authority for regulation and action, and scientific information about the biology of alien species and effective control techniques are often limiting factors that prevent the needed action to protect aquatic ecosystems.

American Fisheries Society Symposium↗