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USGS2021

A U.S.-China EcoPartnership study of disturbed wetland vegetation in West Dongting Lake, China

West Dongting Lake in China is important for human livelihoods and habitat of migratory waterfowl and other wildlife. The waterway re-engineering and agriculture intensification have contributed to changes in hydrology, sediment, and vegetation on the floodplain. This paper describes an EcoPartnership program conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, and Beijing Forestry University. It focused on the development of a wetland ecosystem network in West Dongting Lake with technical support from the U.S. partner using a number of related studies to examine wetland vegetation dynamics from upstream to downstream along the tributaries. The results of U.S. studies showed that the regeneration potential of species might be altered by changes in climate and local environment, and seed bank depletion by germination may be a major conservation threat in a future with recurring droughts in swamps of the southeastern United States. In the monsoonal wetlands of West Dongting Lake, the soil seed bank could be used as a seed source for revegetation after hydrologic restoration with the introduction of certain foundational species and the removal of poplar plantations. Also, West Dongting Lake is at high ecological risk of mercury pollution. Wetland ecosystem monitoring may allow managers to use the information to predict effects of climate change, water level and flow changes on sedimentation, and to manage for desired vegetation to support waterfowl and ecosystem services. The cooperation of two countries through the EcoPartnership program is now well established and poised for extensive research projects in the future.

West Dongting Lake↗

USGS2009

Estimated Loads of Suspended Sediment and Selected Trace Elements Transported through the Milltown Reservoir Project Area Before and After the Breaching of Milltown Dam in the Upper Clark Fork Basin, Montana, Water Year 2008

This report presents estimated daily and cumulative loads of suspended sediment and selected trace elements transported during water year 2008 at three streamflow-gaging stations that bracket the Milltown Reservoir project area in the upper Clark Fork basin of western Montana. Milltown Reservoir is a National Priorities List Superfund site where sediments enriched in trace elements from historical mining and ore processing have been deposited since the construction of Milltown Dam in 1907. Milltown Dam was breached on March 28, 2008, as part of Superfund remedial activities to remove the dam and contaminated sediment that had accumulated in Milltown Reservoir. The estimated loads transported through the project area during the periods before and after the breaching of Milltown Dam, and for the entire water year 2008, were used to quantify the net gain or loss (mass balance) of suspended sediment and trace elements within the project area during the transition from a reservoir environment to a free-flowing river. This study was done in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Streamflow during water year 2008 compared to long-term streamflow, as represented by the record for Clark Fork above Missoula (water years 1930-2008), generally was below normal (long-term median) from about October 2007 through April 2008. Sustained runoff started in mid-April, which increased flows to near normal by mid-May. After mid-May, flows sharply increased to above normal, reaching a maximum daily mean streamflow of 16,800 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) on May 21, which essentially equaled the long-term 10th-exceedance percentile for that date. Flows substantially above normal were sustained through June, then decreased through the summer and reached near-normal by August. Annual mean streamflow during water year 2008 (3,040 ft3/s) was 105 percent of the long-term mean annual streamflow (2,900 ft3/s). The annual peak flow (17,500 ft3/s) occurred on May 21 and was 112 percent of the long-term mean annual peak flow (15,600 ft3/s). About 81 percent of the annual flow volume was discharged during the post-breach period. Daily loads of suspended sediment were estimated directly by using high-frequency sampling of the daily sediment monitoring. Daily loads of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic, cadmium, copper, iron, lead, manganese, and zinc were estimated by using regression equations relating trace-element discharge to either streamflow or suspended-sediment discharge. Regression equations for estimating trace-element discharge in water year 2008 were developed from instantaneous streamflow and concentration data for periodic water-quality samples collected during all or part of water years 2004-08. The equations were applied to records of daily mean streamflow or daily suspended-sediment loads to produce estimated daily trace-element loads. Variations in daily suspended-sediment and trace-element loads generally coincided with variations in streamflow. Relatively small to moderately large daily net losses from the project area were common during the pre-breach period when low-flow conditions were prevalent. Outflow loads from the project area sharply increased immediately after the breaching of Milltown Dam and during the rising limb and peak flow of the annual hydrograph. Net losses of suspended sediment and trace elements from the project area decreased as streamflow decreased during the summer, eventually becoming small or reaching an approximate net balance between inflow and outflow. Estimated daily loads of suspended sediment and trace elements for all three stations were summed to determine cumulative inflow and outflow loads for the pre-breach and post-breach periods, as well as for the entire water year 2008. Overall, the mass balance between the combined inflow loads from two upstream source areas (upper Clark Fork and Blackfoot River basins) and the outflow loads at Clark Fork above Missoula indicates net losses

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2005

Secondary sulfate minerals associated with acid drainage in the eastern US: Recycling of metals and acidity in surficial environments

Weathering of metal-sulfide minerals produces suites of variably soluble efflorescent sulfate salts at a number of localities in the eastern United States. The salts, which are present on mine wastes, tailings piles, and outcrops, include minerals that incorporate heavy metals in solid solution, primarily the highly soluble members of the melanterite, rozenite, epsomite, halotrichite, and copiapite groups. The minerals were identified by a combination of powder X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and electron-microprobe. Base-metal salts are rare at these localities, and Cu, Zn, and Co are commonly sequestered as solid solutions within Fe- and Fe-Al sulfate minerals. Salt dissolution affects the surface-water chemistry at abandoned mines that exploited the massive sulfide deposits in the Vermont copper belt, the Mineral district of central Virginia, the Copper Basin (Ducktown) mining district of Tennessee, and where sulfide-bearing metamorphic rocks undisturbed by mining are exposed in Great Smoky Mountains National Park in North Carolina and Tennessee. Dissolution experiments on composite salt samples from three minesites and two outcrops of metamorphic rock showed that, in all cases, the pH of the leachates rapidly declined from 6.9 to <3.7, and specific conductance increased gradually over 24 h. Leachates analyzed after 24-h dissolution experiments indicated that all of the salts provided ready sources of dissolved Al (>30 mg L-1), Fe (>47 mg L-1), sulfate (>1000 mg L-1), and base metals (>1000 mg L-1 for minesites, and 2 mg L-1 for other sites). Geochemical modeling of surface waters, mine-waste leachates, and salt leachates using PHREEQC software predicted saturation in the observed ochre minerals, but significant concentration by evaporation would be needed to reach saturation in most of the sulfate salts. Periodic surface-water monitoring at Vermont minesites indicated peak annual metal loads during spring runoff. At the Virginia site, where no winter-long snowpack develops, metal loads were highest during summer months when salts were dissolved periodically by rainstorms following sustained evaporation during dry spells. Despite the relatively humid climate of the eastern United States, where precipitation typically exceeds evaporation, salts form intermittently in open areas, persist in protected areas when temperature and relative humidity are appropriate, and contribute to metal loadings and acidity in surface waters upon dissolution, thereby causing short-term perturbations in water quality.

Chemical Geology↗

USGS2016

Modeled effects of soil acidification on long-term ecological and economic outcomes for managed forests in the Adirondack region (USA)

Sugar maple ( Acer saccharum ) is among the most ecologically and economically important tree species in North America, and its growth and regeneration is often the focus of silvicultural practices in northern hardwood forests. A key stressor for sugar maple (SM) is acid rain, which depletes base cations from poorly-buffered forest soils and has been associated with much lower SM vigor, growth, and recruitment. However, the potential interactions between forest management and soil acidification – and their implications for the sustainability of SM and its economic and cultural benefits – have not been investigated. In this study, we simulated the development of 50 extant SM stands in the western Adirondack region of NY (USA) for 100 years under different soil chemical conditions and silvicultural prescriptions. We found that interactions between management prescription and soil base saturation will strongly shape the ability to maintain SM in managed forests. Below 12% base saturation, SM did not regenerate sufficiently after harvest and was replaced mainly by red maple ( Acer rubrum ) and American beech ( Fagus grandifolia ). Loss of SM on acid-impaired sites was predicted regardless of whether the shelterwood or diameter-limit prescriptions were used. On soils with sufficient base saturation, models predicted that SM will regenerate after harvest and be sustained for future rotations. We then estimated how these different post-harvest outcomes, mediated by acid impairment of forest soils, would affect the potential monetary value of ecosystem services provided by SM forests. Model simulations indicated that a management strategy focused on syrup production – although not feasible across the vast areas where acid impairment has occurred – may generate the greatest economic return. Although pollution from acid rain is declining, its long-term legacy in forest soils will shape future options for sustainable forestry and ecosystem stewardship in the northern hardwood forests of North America.

New York↗

USGS2021

Cape Romain partnership for coastal protection

This final report summarizes activities, outcomes, and lessons learned from a 3-year project titled “Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges” with the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and local partners in the surrounding South Carolina Lowcountry. The Lowcountry is classified as the 10-county area encompassing the coastal plain of South Carolina (this report specifically focuses on Berkeley, Charleston, and Georgetown Counties). The goals of this work, sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SECASC), were to foster active engagement with stakeholders; to develop a comprehensive definition of adaptation problems faced by agencies, organizations, and individuals near the Cape Romain NWR that accounts for global change, local values, knowledge and perceptions; and to encourage social learning and building of effective networks and trust across South Carolina Lowcountry organizations and individuals. Although project scoping began at the scale of the Atlantic seaboard, by engaging with NWRs from Massachusetts to Florida, participating refuge personnel eventually selected the Cape Romain NWR to serve as a case study for testing our goals. The Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation was established to address global change impacts at a regional level and includes representation from Federal and State resource agencies, local conservation nongovernmental organizations, and organizations representing underserved community interests. Research topics, originating from discussions with Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation members, focused on quantifying key drivers of change including localized sea-level rise (SLR) predictions, estimates of coastal hurricane inundation as amplified by SLR, and urban growth trends and forecasts. These key drivers provided a foundation to engage stakeholders in planning exercises to begin a process of collective understanding and collaborative decision making. The goal of this process was to develop collective strategies of adaptation to enhance community and ecosystem resilience in the South Carolina Lowcountry. South Carolina’s Lowcountry is experiencing rapid environmental and social transformation because of SLR rates approaching twice the global average, chronic tidal flooding and catastrophic storm surges, erosion and loss of habitats that provide essential services to wildlife and humans, and increasing social polarization fueled by aggressive low-density urban growth and other forms of land conversion. To support characterizations of plausible future scenarios, we used available or, in some cases, developed new models to project future conditions of key environmental and social-economic drivers. Because of the imprecision of mean global SLR projections, the SECASC commissioned a climatological study to account for local conditions and multiple representative concentration pathways to project a tailored distribution of future sea levels. These projections were matched to SLR scenarios provided by existing models to anticipate the range of future coastal habitat changes in the South Carolina Lowcountry. SLR scenarios were also incorporated into existing storm-surge models, which do not account for alternate baseline sea levels, to project the local effects of future hurricanes. To evaluate the extent and effects of population growth and urban expansion, we relied on an existing urban-growth model to map the spatial distribution of land-conversion probabilities, the total area of which is predicted to increase twofold to threefold over the next 60 years. In addition to this simplified model, an econometric model is in development to account for nonlinear feedback dynamics in land value, land use, and ecosystem service production. Although not yet completed, the goals of this model are to produce more-detailed projections of growth dynamics and to allow predictions of development patterns resulting from alternate land-use planning policies and incentives. Collaborative planning for an uncertain future requires more than providing decision makers with information on future physical and ecological conditions; developing effective and consensual strategies must also integrate sociological values, multiple cultural perspectives, and an understanding of human behavior. To support broad stakeholder engagement in integrative approaches to adaptation planning, emphasis was placed on the importance of considering differences in how individuals perceive their environment and create meaning. Because cultural frameworks form the basis for perceptions and, ultimately, the behaviors of individuals and institutions, we describe a model of human behavior and how it can be used to understand the effect of cultural complexity and variation in perception on choices, behavioral change, and long-term maintenance of behaviors. We consider a model commonly used in the field of behavioral health that accommodates variation in human perception when describing stages of behavior and the dynamics of behavioral change. Tailoring communication and engagement activities to targeted stakeholders is likely to benefit from increased understanding of behavioral change processes. The complex nature of this problem limited the usefulness of a traditional decision-analytic approach, we explored alternative methods for engagement, collaborative learning and decision making. Recognizing that project partners and Lowcountry stakeholders may be at different stages of preparedness and interest level for modifying behavior as a function of global change, we facilitated a scenario-planning exercise to familiarize partners with this well-established approach for communicating the opportunities and threats arising under alternative, plausible futures. We developed narratives for four alternative South Carolina Lowcountry scenarios to be used in later strategic planning that focus on quantitative trends for three primary drivers with high impact and high uncertainty: manifestations of climate change, social-political shifts at a global level, and forces of local value and power structures. This scenario-planning exercise underscored the complex relation between the temporospatial scale of the production of ecological goods and services and the institutional scale at which they are managed. We then guided the partners through an assessment of the relevant strengths and weaknesses of the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection, using the threats and opportunities characterized by each scenario to understand how the partnership might respond when attempting to meet conservation and societal objectives. The partnership identified key strengths including partnership experience, outreach and technical capacities, a substantial conservation land base, and high social cohesion in the South Carolina Lowcountry. Limited communication expertise, institutional inertia, and insufficient staffing and funding were recognized as important weaknesses across the partnership. By examining and scoring combinations of internal strengths and weaknesses and external threats and opportunities, the partnership developed sets of prioritized strategies to consider in the context of a given scenario. Although we had insufficient time to examine all scenarios in detail, the intent was to identify a portfolio of strategic actions to address threats and opportunities represented in multiple plausible futures. Top-ranking strategies encompassed a range of actions that focused on strengthening the conservation community and communicating the benefits of nature (that is, ecosystem services) to leveraging partnerships to expand land protection. This report also details the methods and preliminary results of several models developed or applied in support of this project. Two parcel-selection algorithms were used to evaluate anticipated habitat changes and patterns of urban growth to guide decisions on optimal conservation reserve design to protect habitat communities. One approach used a widely available planning software (MARXAN) to maximize conservation benefits near the Cape Romain NWR, whereas the other approach was a novel application of economic theory to account for uncertainty in future conditions and for the risks of unanticipated habitat loss. This latter model applies modern portfolio theory to estimate the risk of investing in any portfolio of land parcels (that is, candidate “reserves”) under climate-change uncertainty by quantifying the variation and spatial correlation of conservation benefits derived from each portfolio. We expanded the range of actions beyond simply whether or not to invest in a set of land parcels, an approach commonly used in spatial conservation planning, to also include consideration of divestment from currently protected lands. Such refinements allow for better accounting of system dynamics and can evaluate the benefits of flexible conservation tools such as rolling easements. Model results were conditional on a decision maker’s risk tolerance but highlighted general strategies of land conservation to increase future habitat representation beyond what is expected under the current protected land base. We built models that may help inform coastal planning by estimating salinity dynamics and the performance of oyster reef restoration efforts to predict the combined effects of global change and management of freshwater flows on coastal habitats and the processes that contribute to their resilience. These models can support restoration decisions by evaluating the expected benefits of site locations for shoreline protection and fisheries production. Lastly, we developed a spatially explicit economic model that predicts feedback dynamics among land value, land-use change, and effects on ecosystem service provision to explore zoning policies and incentives on urban growth and ecosystem services. We summarize these efforts with insights and considerations for the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection to continue to engage stakeholders in effective adaptation planning. First, notions of place attachment (referred to as sense of place), and the role of culture in social discourse are increasingly being used to understand the complex interactions between society and the environment and how societies respond and adapt to climate change. Sense of place was a unifying theme whenever the future of the South Carolina Lowcountry was discussed. The contribution of the South Carolina Lowcountry’s environmental wealth, rich cultural heritage, and quality of life to sense of place has important implications for how adaptation planning might best be pursued. More community-based governance of the commons (in other words, natural and cultural resources held in common), in which broad stakeholder participation and power sharing are key elements, is considered important. This devolution of governance is characterized by polycentric institutions and self-organizing social networks that promote a local culture of knowledge sharing, problem solving, and learning. These so-called bridging organizations (or individuals) often provide the leadership necessary to bring together potentially disparate Government agencies and institutions, private organizations, and individuals in a collective process of problem solving. Our observations also suggest that the conservation community in the South Carolina Lowcountry views its activities as integral to the broader governance of social-ecological systems, in which responses to the forces of global change are mediated through culture, economics, and politics. Rather than directly competing with other interests, the South Carolina Lowcountry conservation community seems to embrace an interpretation of conservation in which the fundamental objective is the quality of human life rather than environmental protection. Fundamental to the types of governance reforms described above is the notion of coproduction, in which experts and users collaborate to develop a shared body of knowledge. In this approach, scientists work with stakeholders to help frame questions, design research, and collect and analyze data. Such sustained collaborations are increasingly believed to be an effective way to produce useable (or actionable) science. The emphasis on social learning, leveraging strong social networks, coordinating and deliberating among diverse stakeholders, and applying principles of adaptive management is an essential contribution to adaptive capacity. The diverse and robust set of scientific approaches, methods to help stakeholders collaborate in effective and goal-driven planning processes, and decision tools resulting from this project hopefully will assist Cape Romain NWR and its partners prepare for climatic, ecological, and social changes over the coming decades.

South Carolina↗

USGS2010

Extended abstracts from the Coastal Habitats in Puget Sound (CHIPS) 2006 Workshop

Puget Sound is the second largest estuary in the United States. Its unique geology, climate, and nutrient-rich waters produce and sustain biologically productive coastal habitats. These same natural characteristics also contribute to a high quality of life that has led to a significant growth in human population and associated development. This population growth, and the accompanying rural and urban development, has played a role in degrading Puget Sound ecosystems, including declines in fish and wildlife populations, water-quality issues, and loss and degradation of coastal habitats. In response to these ecosystem declines and the potential for strategic large-scale preservation and restoration, a coalition of local, State, and Federal agencies, including the private sector, Tribes, and local universities, initiated the Puget Sound Nearshore Ecosystem Restoration Project (PSNERP). The Nearshore Science Team (NST) of PSNERP, along with the U.S. Geological Survey, developed a Science Strategy and Research Plan (Gelfenbaum and others, 2006) to help guide science activities associated with nearshore ecosystem restoration. Implementation of the Research Plan includes a call for State and Federal agencies to direct scientific studies to support PSNERP information needs. In addition, the overall Science Strategy promotes greater communication with decision makers and dissemination of scientific results to the broader scientific community. On November 14–16, 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey sponsored an interdisciplinary Coastal Habitats in Puget Sound (CHIPS) Research Workshop at Fort Worden State Park, Port Townsend, Washington. The main goals of the workshop were to coordinate, integrate, and link research on the nearshore of Puget Sound. Presented research focused on three themes: (1) restoration of large river deltas; (2) recovery of the nearshore ecosystem of the Elwha River; and (3) effects of urbanization on nearshore ecosystems. The more than 35 presentations covered a wide range of ongoing inter-disciplinary research, including studies of sediment geochemistry of aquatic environments, sediment budgets, tracking fish pathways, expansion of invasive forams, beach and nearshore sedimentary environments, using influence diagrams as a decision support tool, forage fish, submarine groundwater, and much, much more. The primary focus within these themes was on developing information on the physical, chemical, and biological processes, as well as the human dimensions, associated with the restoration or rehabilitation of the nearshore environment. The workshop was an excellent opportunity for USGS scientists and collaborators who are working on Puget Sound coastal habitats to present their preliminary findings, discuss upcoming research, and to identify opportunities for interdisciplinary collaboration. A compilation of extended abstracts from workshop participants, this proceedings volume serves as a useful reference for attendees of the workshop and for those unable to attend. Taken together, the abstracts in this report provide a view of the current status of USGS multidisciplinary research on Puget Sound coastal habitats.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2019

Growth, condition, and trophic relations of stocked trout in southern Appalachian mountain streams

Stream trout fisheries are among the most popular and valuable in the United States, but many are dependent on hatcheries to sustain fishing and harvest. Thus, understanding the ecology of hatchery‐reared trout stocked in natural environments is fundamental to management. We evaluated the growth, condition, and trophic relations of Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis , Brown Trout Salmo trutta , and Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss that were stocked in southern Appalachian Mountain streams in western North Carolina. Stocked and wild (naturalized) trout were sampled over time (monthly; September 2012–June 2013) to compare condition and diet composition and to evaluate temporal dynamics of trophic position with stable isotope analysis. Relative weights ( W r ) of stocked trout were inversely associated with their stream residence time but were consistently higher than those of wild trout. Weight loss of harvested stocked trout was similar among species and sizes, but fish stocked earlier lost more weight. Overall, 40% of 141 stomachs from stocked trout were empty compared to 15% of wild trout stomachs ( N = 26). We identified a much higher rate of piscivory in wild trout (18 times that of stocked trout), and wild trout were 4.3 times more likely to consume gastropods relative to stocked trout. Hatchery‐reared trout were isotopically similar to co‐occurring wild fish for both δ 13 C and δ 15 N values but were less variable than wild trout. Differences in sulfur isotope ratios (δ 34 S) between wild and hatchery‐reared trout indicated that the diets of wild fish were enriched in δ 34 S relative to the diets of hatchery‐reared fish. Although hatchery‐reared trout consumed prey items similar to those of wild fish, differences in consumption or behavior (e.g., reduced feeding) may have resulted in lower condition and negative growth. These findings provide critical insight on the trophic dynamics of stocked trout and may assist in developing and enhancing stream trout fisheries.

North Carolina↗

USGS2011

Report on the 2010 Chilean earthquake and tsunami response

In July 2010, in an effort to reduce future catastrophic natural disaster losses for California, the American Red Cross coordinated and sent a delegation of 20 multidisciplinary experts on earthquake response and recovery to Chile. The primary goal was to understand how the Chilean society and relevant organizations responded to the magnitude 8.8 Maule earthquake that struck the region on February 27, 2010, as well as how an application of these lessons could better prepare California communities, response partners and state emergency partners for a comparable situation. Similarities in building codes, socioeconomic conditions, and broad extent of the strong shaking make the Chilean earthquake a very close analog to the impact of future great earthquakes on California. To withstand and recover from natural and human-caused disasters, it is essential for citizens and communities to work together to anticipate threats, limit effects, and rapidly restore functionality after a crisis. The delegation was hosted by the Chilean Red Cross and received extensive briefings from both national and local Red Cross officials. During nine days in Chile, the delegation also met with officials at the national, regional, and local government levels. Technical briefings were received from the President’s Emergency Committee, emergency managers from ONEMI (comparable to FEMA), structural engineers, a seismologist, hospital administrators, firefighters, and the United Nations team in Chile. Cities visited include Santiago, Talca, Constitución, Concepción, Talcahuano, Tumbes, and Cauquenes. The American Red Cross Multidisciplinary Team consisted of subject matter experts, who carried out special investigations in five Teams on the (1) science and engineering findings, (2) medical services, (3) emergency services, (4) volunteer management, and (5) executive and management issues (see appendix A for a full list of participants and their titles and teams). While developing this delegation, it was clear that a multidisciplinary approach was required to properly analyze the emergency response, technical, and social components of this disaster. A diverse and knowledgeable delegation was necessary to analyze the Chilean response in a way that would be beneficial to preparedness in California, as well as improve mitigation efforts around the United States. By most standards, the Maule earthquake was a catastrophe for Chile. The economic losses totaled $30 billion USD or 17% of the GDP of the country. Twelve million people, or ¾ of the population of the country, were in areas that felt strong shaking. Yet only 521 fatalities have been confirmed, with 56 people still missing and presumed dead in the tsunami. The Science and Technology Team evaluated the impacts of the earthquake on built environment with implications for the United States. The fires following the earthquake were minimal in part because of the shutdown of the national electrical grid early in the shaking. Only five engineer-designed buildings were destroyed during the earthquake; however, over 350,000 housing units were destroyed. Chile has a law that holds building owners liable for the first 10 years of a building’s existence for any losses resulting from inadequate application of the building code during construction. This law was cited by many our team met with as a prime reason for the strong performance of the built environment. Overall, this earthquake demonstrated that strict building codes and standards could greatly reduce losses in even the largest earthquakes. In the immediate response to the earthquake and tsunami, first responders, emergency personnel, and search and rescue teams handled many challenges. Loss of communications was significant; many lives were lost and effective coordination to support life-sustaining efforts was gravely impacted due to a lack of inter- and intra-agency coordination. The Health and Medical Services Team sought to understand the medical disaster response strategies and operations of Chilean agencies, including perceived or actual failures in disaster preparation that impacted the medical disaster response; post-disaster health and medical interventions to save lives and limit suffering; and the lessons learned by public health and medical personnel as a result of their experiences. Despite devastating damage to the health care and civic infrastructure, the health care response to the Chilean earthquake appeared highly successful due to several factors. Like other first responders, the medical community had the ability and resourcefulness to respond without centralized control in the early response phase. The health care community maintained patient care under austere conditions, despite many obstacles that could have prevented such care. National and international resources were rapidly mobilized to support the medical response. The Emergency Services Team sought to collect information on all phases of emergency management (preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery) and determine what worked well and what could be improved upon. The Chileans reported being surprised that they were not as ready for this event as they thought they were. The use of mass care sheltering was limited, given the scope of the disaster, because of the resiliency of the population. The impacts of the earthquake and the tsunami were quite different, as were the needs of urban and rural dwellers, necessitating different response activities. The Volunteer Services Team examined the challenges faced in mobilizing a large number of volunteers to assist in the aftermath of a disaster of this scale. One of the greatest challenges expressed was difficulty in communication; the need for redundancy in communication mechanisms was cited. The flexibility and ability to work autonomously by the frontline volunteers was a significant factor in effective response. It was also important for volunteer leadership to know the emergency plans. These plans need to be flexible, include alternative options, and be completed in conjunction with local officials and other volunteers. The Executive/Red Cross Management Team took a broad look at the impacts of the earthquake and the implications for California. Some of the most important preparation for the disaster came from relationships formed before the event. The communities with strong connections between different government services generally fared well. The initial response and resilience of individuals and communities was another important component. Communication system failures limited the ability of a central government to assist impacted communities, or to issue tsunami warnings. It also delayed the response since the government did not know (in some case for several days) the impact and needs of local governments. In general, plans for congregate care shelters existed but were little used as most people chose to stay at damaged homes or with relatives. Looting was a surprise to response officials as well as social scientists, but both public and private sector organizations, including NGOs (Non-Governmental Organizations), must consider security for damaged businesses as a priority in California’s multihazard planning. Class and ethnic divisions that become heightened during some cases of actual or perceived injustice may also emerge in natural disasters in California. Several factors contributed overall to the low casualty rate and rapid recovery. A major factor is the strong building code in Chile and its comprehensive enforcement. In particular, Chile has a law that holds building owners accountable for losses in a building they build for 10 years. A second factor was the limited number of fires after the earthquake. In the last few California earthquakes, 60% of the fires were started by electrical problems, so the rarity of fires may have been affected by the shut down of the electricity grid early in the earthquake. Third, in many areas, the local emergency response was very effective. The most effective regions had close coordination between emergency management, fire, and police and were empowered to respond without communication with the capital. The fourth factor was the overall high level of knowledge about earthquakes and tsunamis by much of the population that helped them respond more appropriately after the event.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2022

Long-term assessments are critical to determining persistence and shoreline protection from oyster reef nature-based coastal defenses

Nature-based coastal defense using bivalve reefs provides a potentially self-sustaining approach for regions facing high coastal land loss, relative sea level rise and increasing frequency and intensity of storms. Success of such nature-based coastal defense depends on the reef-building species' life history, habitat requirements, and ability to thrive through short-term and longer-term environmental variation, yet few projects have reported on outcomes beyond the first few years. In coastal Louisiana, USA, Crassostrea virginica (oyster) is an ecosystem engineer, creating self-sustaining, vertically accreting reefs that also provide ecosystem services. Here, we examine the short (< 3 years) and medium (> 10 years) term outcomes of experimental reefs constructed in 2009 for nature-based coastal defense in a Louisiana, USA estuarine lake. Oyster reef density, demography, along with adjacent salt marsh, and shoreline movement were compared at six fringing shoreline reefs and paired reference sites over the first three years post-construction (2009–2011), and a decade later (2019–2020). Oyster density measured in 2019–2020 (< 60 ind m −2 ) was less than 10% of density measured during 2009–2011 (> 1000 ind m −2 ). This density difference largely reflected a lack of new recruits and small oysters (< 75 mm shell height) in later samples, with adult oyster densities similar between 2011, 2019 and 2020. Lack of smaller oysters in recent sampling likely reflected the impact of multiple extended low salinity events in this region in recent years, including the record-breaking low salinity in 2019. No differences in shoreline characteristics were detected in marsh vegetation, soil properties or nutrient concentrations between reef and reference sites during early and later years. Similarly, shoreline erosion at both reef and reference sites immediately post-construction, and 10 years later, was high (~1 m y −1 ) indicating a lack of shoreline protection from these reefs. These findings highlight the need to consider both current and future conditions, including the effect of extreme years, when implementing nature-based coastal defense. On the other hand, the persistence of reproductive-sized oysters on the reef 10 years post creation, indicate reef resilience and potential for reef development and shoreline benefits, should better site conditions return in future years. Determining restoration success within variable and dynamic environments requires frequent monitoring which is required to understand responses to short and longer-term environmental variation.

Louisiana↗

USGS2011

Nature's Notebook 2010: Data & participant summary

The USA National Phenology Network (USA‐NPN) seeks to engage volunteer observers to collect phenology observations of plants and animals using consistent standards and to contribute to the USANPN National Phenology Database (NPDb). The commencement of 2010 marked the second functional year of Nature’s Notebook , the online phenology observation program developed by the National Coordinating Office (NCO) of the USA‐NPN. The addition of animal species for monitoring was a major enhancement to Nature’s Notebook in 2010. In 2010, with minimal advertising or marketing, 796 new observers registered with Nature’s Notebook and 426 observers reported phenology observations on one or more plants or animals via the online interface. Over 200,000 data records were added to the NPDb. Observations were reported on 179 species of plants and 58 species of animals. The plant species most frequently observed include red maple ( Acer rubrum ), quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides ), American beech ( Fagus grandifolia ), northern red oak ( Quercus rubra ), and flowering dogwood ( Cornus florida ). The animal species most frequently observed were American robin ( Turdus migratorius ), black‐capped chickadee ( Poecile atricapillus ), American goldfinch ( Carduelis tristis ), bumblebee ( Bombus spp.), and white‐tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ). As in 2009, participants tended to stay involved, reporting most phenophases for an average of nearly ten unique dates during the year. In addition, nearly two hundred participants who submitted observations in previous years continued to participate in 2010. This sustained participation suggests that the Nature’s Notebook interface and the status monitoring protocols inherent in Nature’s Notebook are both conducive to engaging the public and keeping them involved. Data submitted by Nature’s Notebook participants show patterns that follow latitude and elevation. Multiple years of observations now allow for year‐to‐year comparisons within and across species. As such, these data should be useful to a variety of stakeholders interested in the spatial and temporal patterns of plant and animal activity on a national scale; through time, these data should also empower scientists, resource managers, and the public in decision‐making and adapting to variable and changing climates and environments. Data submitted to Nature’s Notebook and supporting metadata are available for download at www.usanpn.org/results/data. Additionally, data visualization tools are available online at www.usanpn.org/results/visualizations.

USA-NPN Technical Series↗

USGS2000

2nd interface between ecology and land development in California

The 2nd Interface Between Ecology and Land Development Conference was held in association with Earth Day 1997, five years after the first Interface Conference. Rapid population growth in California has intensified the inevitable conflict between land development and preservation of natural ecosystems. Sustainable development requires wise use of diminishing natural resources and, where possible, restoration of damaged landscapes. These Earth Week Celebrations brought together resource managers, scientists, politicians, environmental consultants, and concerned citizens in an effort to improve the communication necessary to maintain our natural biodiversity, ecosystem processes and general quality of life. As discussed by our keynote speaker, Michael Soule, the best predictor of habitat loss is population growth and nowhere is this better illustrated than in California. As urban perimeters expand, the interface between wildlands and urban areas increases. Few problems are more vexing than how to manage the fire prone ecosystems indigenous to California at this urban interface. Today resource managers face increasing challenges of dealing with this problem and the lead-off section of the proceedings considers both the theoretical basis for making decisions related to prescribed burning and the practical application. Habitat fragmentation is an inevitable consequence of development patterns with significant impacts on animal and plant populations. Managers must be increasingly resourceful in dealing with problems of fragmentation and the often inevitable consequences, including susceptibility to invasive oganisms. One approach to dealing with fragmentation problems is through careful landplanning. California is the national leader in the integration of conservation and economics. On Earth Day 1991, Governor Pete Wilson presented an environmental agenda that promised to create between land owners and environmentalists, agreements that would guarantee the protection of -endangered species and out of this grew the pioneering initiative, known as the Natural Communities Conservation Planning (NCCP) program. California's vast expanse of seemingly endless resources has traditionally been viewed as justification for abusive land use practices. The modem day recognition that resources are finite has led to greater concern, not only for conserving what is left, but for restoring abused landscapes. Ecological restoration is a new science devoted to returning disturbed environments to a semblance of their 'pristine' state. Based on principles of 'revegetation,' restoration goes far beyond simple replanting, rather the ambition of ecological restoration is to return landscapes to functioning ecosystems and is the focus of the last section.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2022

Fifty years of Landsat science and impacts

Since 1972, the Landsat program has been continually monitoring the Earth, to now provide 50 years of digital, multispectral, medium spatial resolution observations. Over this time, Landsat data were crucial for many scientific and technical advances. Prior to the Landsat program, detailed, synoptic depictions of the Earth's surface were rare, and the ability to acquire and work with large datasets was limited. The early years of the Landsat program delivered a series of technological breakthroughs, pioneering new methods, and demonstrating the ability and capacity of digital satellite imagery, creating a template for other global Earth observation missions and programs. Innovations driven by the Landsat program have paved the way for subsequent science, application, and policy support activities. The economic and scientific value of the knowledge gained through the Landsat program has been long recognized, and despite periods of funding uncertainty, has resulted in the program's 50 years of continuity, as well as substantive and ongoing improvements to payload and mission performance. Free and open access to Landsat data, enacted in 2008, was unprecedented for medium spatial resolution Earth observation data and substantially increased usage and led to a proliferation of science and application opportunities. Here, we highlight key developments over the past 50 years of the Landsat program that have influenced and changed our scientific understanding of the Earth system. Major scientific and programmatic impacts have been realized in the areas of agricultural crop mapping and water use, climate change drivers and impacts, ecosystems and land cover monitoring, and mapping the changing human footprint. The introduction of Landsat collection processing, coupled with the free and open data policy, facilitated a transition in Landsat data usage away from single images and towards time series analyses over large areas and has fostered the widespread use of science-grade data. The launch of Landsat-9 on September 27, 2021, and the advanced planning of its successor mission, Landsat-Next, underscore the sustained institutional support for the program. Such support and commitment to continuity is recognition of both the historic impact the program, and the future potential to build upon Landsat's remarkable 50-year legacy.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

USGS2019

Annual winter water level drawdowns limit shallow-water mussel densities in small lakes

Regulated water level fluctuations alter the physical, chemical, and biological environments in lakes. However, few studies have measured the effects of repeated annual winter drawdowns on freshwater mussel populations (Bivalvia: Unionida), and it is unknown whether drawdowns permanently constrain mussel populations to deeper depths or are resilient to the annual disturbance. We quantified mussel densities during normal water levels and their mortality after the initiation of drawdown in lakes with annual winter (December–March) water level drawdown regimes that have existed for several decades. We used systematic quadrat sampling and visual snorkel surveys to estimate the number of live mussels at the surface and buried, and shell length in six drawdown and three control lakes at exposed (0.5-m) and unexposed (1-m) depths during winter drawdown. We also estimated mortality of mussels along the exposed lakebed for nine drawdown lakes. Study lakes were dominated by Elliptio complanata and Pyganodon cataracta . During normal water levels, mussel densities were much lower in drawdown lakes than control lakes at 0.5-m depths. When mussels were present in drawdown lakes at 0.5-m depths, they were often burrowed in the substrate and smaller than buried mussels in control lakes. At unexposed 1-m depths, mussel densities were primarily explained by geographic region (western versus central Massachusetts), and found higher densities in drawdown lakes compared to control lakes. Mussel mortality after a single drawdown event in nine drawdown lakes was not correlated with drawdown magnitude or rate. Concordance of shell length-frequency distributions between dead and buried living mussels in drawdown lakes suggests annual mortality of colonising individuals, which are typically small and presumably of young cohorts. Annual winter drawdowns still limit densities of E. complanata and P. cataracta in shallow-water habitats in the following autumn (September–October) after 4–5 months of potential recovery, and hence constrain their distribution in lakes exposed to drawdowns. The development of sustainable water level management practices will be essential to minimise impacts to native mussel populations.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2020

Linking nest microhabitat selection to nest survival within declining pheasant populations in the Central Valley of California

Context: The ring-necked pheasant ( Phasianus colchicus ) has experienced considerable population declines in recent decades, especially in agricultural environments of the Central Valley of California. Although large-scale changes in land cover have been reported as an important driver of population dynamics, the effects of microhabitat conditions on specific demographic rates (e.g. nesting) are largely unknown. Aims: Our goal was to identify the key microhabitat factors that contribute to wild pheasant fitness by linking individual-level selection of each microhabitat characteristic to the survival of their nests within the California Central Valley. Methods: We radio- or GPS-marked 190 female ring-necked pheasants within five study areas and measured nest-site characteristics and nest fates during 2013–2017. Specifically, we modeled microhabitat selection using vegetation covariates measured at nest sites and random sites and then modeled nest survival as a function of selecting each microhabitat characteristic. Key results: Female pheasants tended to select nest sites with greater proportions of herbaceous cover and avoided areas with greater proportions of bare-ground. Specifically, perennial grass cover was the most explanatory factor with regard to nest survival, but selection for increasing visual obstruction alone was not shown to have a significant effect on survival. Further, we found strong evidence that pheasants selecting sites with greater perennial grass height were more likely to have successful nests. Conclusions: Although pheasants will select many types of vegetation available as cover, our models provided evidence that perennial grasses are more beneficial than other cover types to pheasants selecting nesting sites. Implications: Focusing management actions on promoting perennial grass cover and increased heights at the microsite level, in lieu of other vegetative modifications, may provide improved quality of habitat for nesting pheasants and, perhaps, result in increased productivity. This is especially important if cover is limited during specific times of the nesting period. Understanding how microhabitat selection influences fitness can help land managers develop strategies to increase the sustainability of hunted populations of this popular game-bird species.

California↗

USGS2000

Cruise report RV Ocean Surveyor cruise O-1-00-GM the bathymetry and acoustic backscatter of the Pinnacles area, northern Gulf of Mexico May 23, through June 10, 2000 Venice, LA to Venice, LA

An extensive deep (~100 m) reef tract occurs on the Mississippi-Alabama outer continental shelf (OCS). The tract, known as "The Pinnacles", is apparently part of a sequence of drowned reef complexes along the "40-fathom" shelf edge of the northern Gulf of Mexico (Ludwick and Walton, 1957). It is critical to determine the accurate geomorphology of deep-reefs because of their importance as benthic habitats for fisheries. The Pinnacles were mapped by Ludwick and Walton (1957) using a single-beam echo sounder but the spatial extent and morphology were interpreted from a series of widely separated, poorly navigated bathymetric profiles. Other recent studies, supported by Minerals Management Service (MMS), used towed sidescan sonars and single-channel seismic-reflection profiling. None of the existing studies provide the quality of geomorphic data necessary for reasonable habitat studies. The fish faunas of shallow hermatypic reefs have been well studied, but those of deep ahermatypic reefs have relatively ignored. The ecology of deep ahermatypic reefs is fundamentally different from hermatipic reefs because autochthonous intracellular symbiotic zooxanthellae (the carbon source for hermatypic corals) do not form the base of the trophic web. Instead, exogenous plankton, transported to the reef by currents, serves as the primary carbon source. Deep OCS reefs also lie below the practical working depths for SCUBA; consequently, remote investigations from a ship or in situ investigations using submersibles or ROVs are required. Community structure and trophodynamics of demersal fishes of the Pinnacles are presently the focus of USGS reseach. A goal of the research is to answer questions concerning the relataive roles played by geomorphology and surficial geology in the interaction with and control of biological differentiation. OCS reefs are important because we now know that such areas are important coral reef fish havens, key spawning 2 sites, and a critical early larval and juvenile habitats for economically important sport/food fishes. Also, deep-reef ecosystems as well as the fish populations they sustain are impacted by intensive oil-field development. It is now known that deep OCS reefs function as a key source of re-population (via seasonal and ontogenetic migration) of already heavily impacted inshore reefs. A reflection of this realization is the recent closure by the Gulf States Fisheries Management Council of a 600 mi 2 area of the Florida Middle Grounds (another unmapped major "40-fathom" OCS reef complex) to commercial fishing to preserve grouper spawning aggregations. It is known that the Pinnacles reefs support a lush fauna of ahermatypic hard corals, soft corals, black corals, sessile crinoids and sponges—together forming a living habitat for a well-developed fish fauna. The fish fauna comprises typical Caribbean reef fishes and Carolinian shelf fishes, plus epipelagic fishes, and a few deep-sea fishes. The base of the megafaunal invertebrate food web is plankton, borne by essentially continuous semi-laminar currents flowing predominantly out of the SW, up, along and across the shelf edge. These currents are intercepted by pinnacles reefs, which lie roughly in two linear tracts, parallel to the coastline (see fig. 1 in report). USGS research initiated in 1997 (Sulak et al., in progress) has demonstrated that the Pinnacles reef fish fauna is dominated by planktivorous fishes. Ongoing food habits, trophic web and stable isotope analyses by the USGS are reinforcing a basic picture of deep OCS reefs as ecosystems based on exogenous current-borne plankton. Long-term current meter deployments have demonstrated that the >3 m, <16m relief of the Pinnacles reefs disrupts the prevailing currents, inducing local complexity (F. Kelly, Texas A&M Univ., pers. comm.) favorable to plankton and planktivores. Geodetically accurate bathymetry maps, coregistered with calibrated acoustic backscatter maps, are critical to delineate benthic biotopes, and are essential to correlate biological community differentiation with the physical environment. Previous mapping of the Pinnacles area using the TAMU towed single-beam sidescan system (Anonymous., 1999) employed technology with inherent deficiencies in backscatter calibration, bathymetric precision, and geo-referencing. The resulting bathymetric interpretations of TAMU data are further degraded by ship-track-parallel artifacts that obliterate geomorphology rendering them inadequate to provide high-resolution mapping of individual target reefs (typical maximum relief 15 m, diameter 200-500 m). The sidescan-sonar surveys of the area (Laswell et al., 1990) suffer many of the same deficiencies as the TAMU data so they add no quantitative and little qualitative information about the geomorphology and surficial geology.

Gulf of Mexico, the Pinnacles area↗

USGS2014

The future of nearshore processes research

The nearshore is the transition region between land and the continental shelf including (from onshore to offshore) coastal plains, wetlands, estuaries, coastal cliffs, dunes, beaches, surf zones (regions of wave breaking), and the inner shelf (Figure ES-1). Nearshore regions are vital to the national economy, security, commerce, and recreation. The nearshore is dynamically evolving, is often densely populated, and is under increasing threat from sea level rise, long-term erosion, extreme storms, and anthropogenic influences. Worldwide, almost one billion people live at elevations within 10 m of present sea level. Long-term erosion threatens communities, infrastructure, ecosystems, and habitat. Extreme storms can cause billions of dollars of damage. Degraded water quality impacts ecosystem and human health. Nearshore processes, the complex interactions between water, sediment, biota, and humans, must be understood and predicted to manage this often highly developed yet vulnerable nearshore environment. Over the past three decades, the understanding of nearshore processes has improved. However, societal needs are growing with increased coastal urbanization and threats of future climate change, and significant scientific challenges remain. To address these challenges, members of academia, industry, and federal agencies (USGS, USACE, NPS, NOAA, FEMA, ONR) met at the “The Past and Future of Nearshore Processes Research: Reflections on the Sallenger Years and a New Vision for the Future” workshop to develop a nearshore processes research vision where societal needs and science challenges intersect. The resulting vision is comprised of three broad research themes: Long-term coastal evolution due to natural and anthropogenic processes: As global climate change alters the rates of sea level rise and potentially storm patterns and coastal urbanization increases over the coming decades, an understanding of coastal evolution is critical. Improved knowledge of long-term morphological, ecological, and societal processes and their interactions will result in an improved ability to simulate coastal change. This will enable proactive solutions for resilient coasts and better guidance for reducing coastal vulnerability. Extreme Events: Flooding, erosion, and the subsequent recovery: Hurricane Sandy caused flooding and erosion along hundreds of miles of shoreline, flooded New York City, and impacted communities and infrastructure. Overall U.S. coastal extreme event related economic losses have increased substantially. Furthermore, climate change may cause an increase in coastal extreme events and rising sea levels could increase the occurrence of extreme events. Addressing this research theme will result in an improved understanding of the physical processes during extreme events, leading to improved models of flooding, erosion, and recovery. The resulting societal benefit will be more resilient coastal communities. The physical, biological and chemical processes impacting human and ecosystem health: Nearshore regions are used for recreation, tourism, and human habitation, and provide habitat and valuable ecosystem services. These areas must be sustained for future generations, however overall coastal water quality is declining due to microbial pathogens, fertilizers, pesticides, and heavy metal contamination, threatening ecosystem and human health. To ensure sustainable nearshore regions, predictive real-time water- and sediment-based based pollutant modeling capabilities must be developed, which requires expanding our knowledge of the physics, chemistry, and biology of the nearshore. The resulting societal benefits will include better beach safety, healthier ecosystems, and improved mitigation and regulatory policies. The scientists and engineers of the U.S. nearshore community are poised to make significant progress on these research themes, which have significant societal impact. The U.S. nearshore community, including academic, government, and industry colleagues, recommends multi-agency investment into a coordinated development of observational and modeling research infrastructure to address these themes, as discussed in the whitepaper. The observational infrastructure should include development of new sensors and methods, focused observational programs, and expanded nearshore observing systems. The modeling infrastructure should include improved process representation, better model coupling, incorporation of data assimilation techniques, and testing of real-time models. The observations will provide test beds to compare and improve models.

Report↗

USGS2001

. Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2022

Long-term ocean observing for international capacity development around tsunami early warning

The 2004 magnitude (M) 9.1 Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake in the Indian Ocean triggered the deadliest tsunami ever, killing more than 230,000 people. In response, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) established three additional Intergovernmental Coordination Groups (ICGs) for the Tsunami and Other Coastal Hazards Early Warning System: for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (ICG/CARIBE-EWS), for the Indian Ocean, and for the Northeastern Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Connected Seas. Along with the ICG for the Pacific Ocean, which was established in 1965, one of the goals of the new ICGs was to improve earthquake and tsunami monitoring and early warning. This need was further demonstrated by the 2011 Great East Japan (Tōhoku-oki) earthquake and tsunami, which killed more than 20,000 people, and other destructive tsunamis that occurred in the Solomon Islands, Samoa, Tonga, Chile, Indonesia, and Peru. In response to the call to action by the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021–2030), as well as the desired safe ocean outcome (von Hillebrandt-Andrade et al., 2021), the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO approved the Ocean Decade Tsunami Programme in June 2021. One of its goals is to develop the capability to issue actionable alerts for tsunamis from all sources with minimum uncertainty within 10 minutes (Angove et al., 2019). While laudable, this goal presents complexities. Currently, warning depends on quick detection as well as the location and initial magnitude estimates of an earthquake that may generate a tsunami. Other factors that affect tsunamis, such as the faulting mechanism (how the faults slide past each other) and areal extent of the earthquake, currently take at least 20–30 minutes to forecast and are still subject to large uncertainties. Hence, agencies charged with tsunami early warning need to broadcast public alerts within minutes after an earthquake occurs but may struggle to meet this 10-minute goal without further technological advances, some of which are outlined in this article. To reduce loss of life through adequate tsunami warning requires global ocean-based seismic, sea level, and geodetic initiatives to detect high-impact earthquakes and tsunamis, combined with sufficient communication and education so that people know how to respond when they receive alerts and warnings. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction defines an early warning system as “a set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities, and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss” (UNISDR, 2012). In short, a successful early warning system requires technology coupled with human factors (Kelman and Glantz, 2014). In this article, we explore case studies from Japan and Canada, where scientists are leading the way in incorporating ocean observing capabilities in their early warning systems. We also explore advancements and challenges in the Caribbean, an area with a complex tectonic environment that would benefit greatly from increased global ocean observing capabilities. We also explore physical and social science interventions necessary to reduce loss of life.

Oceanography↗