SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Current Climate Change Reports”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10Linked to original sources

USGS2010

Modeling Climate Change and Sturgeon Populations in the Missouri River

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Columbia Environmental Research Center (CERC), in collaboration with researchers from the University of Missouri and Iowa State University, is conducting research to address effects of climate change on sturgeon populations (Scaphirhynchus spp.) in the Missouri River. The CERC is conducting laboratory, field, and modeling research to identify causative factors for the responses of fish populations to natural and human-induced environmental changes and using this information to understand sensitivity of sturgeon populations to potential climate change in the Missouri River drainage basin. Sturgeon response information is being used to parameterize models predicting future population trends. These models will provide a set of tools for natural resource managers to assess management strategies in the context of global climate change. This research complements and builds on the ongoing Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program (CSRP) at the CERC. The CSRP is designed to provide information critical to restoration of the Missouri River ecosystem and the endangered pallid sturgeon (S. albus). Current research is being funded by USGS through the National Climate Change Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) and the Science Support Partnership (SSP) Program that is held by the USGS and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The national mission of the NCCWSC is to improve the capacity of fish and wildlife agencies to respond to climate change and to address high-priority climate change effects on fish and wildlife. Within the national context, the NCCWSC research on the Missouri River focuses on temporal and spatial downscaling and associated uncertainty in modeling climate change effects on sturgeon species in the Missouri River. The SSP research focuses on improving survival and population estimates for pallid sturgeon population models.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2021

A climate risk management screening and assessment review for Madagascar’s Country Development Cooperation Strategy

Madagascar, a country rich in natural capital and biodiversity but with high levels of poverty, food insecurity, and population growth, faces a number of development challenges, including obtaining sustained financial support from external sources and building internal capacity to address the poor environmental, health, and socio-economic conditions. Climate change poses an increasing threat to achieving development goals and is usually considered in development plans and project designs. However, there have been numerous challenges in the effective implementation of those plans, particularly in the sustained engagement of the communities to undertake adaptive actions but also due to insufficient scientific information to inform management decisions. To support the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in the incorporation of Climate Risk Management into their Country Development Cooperation Strategy, we synthesized the best available information on current and future climate change impacts. Climate risks in Madagascar include increasing temperatures, reduced and more variable precipitation, more frequent droughts, more intense cyclones, and rising sea levels. We synthesized the observed and projected impacts of these climatic changes on water resources, agriculture, coastal and terrestrial ecosystems and ecosystem services, fisheries, and human health. Through interviews with stakeholders in Madagascar, we also discerned ongoing and potential climate adaptation and mitigation activities and information gaps (production, access, exploitation, processing, dissemination of information). The information gathered can be used by USAID, NGOs, and other organizations on how to better incorporate climate risks into development strategies and projects in Madagascar.

Project Summary↗

USGS2021

Neither microcystin, nor nodularin, nor cylindrospermopsin directly interact with human toll-like receptors

Various stressors including temperature, environmental chemicals, and toxins can have profound impacts on immunity to pathogens. Increased eutrophication near rivers and lakes coupled with climate change are predicted to lead to increased algal blooms. Currently, the effects of cyanobacterial toxins on disease resistance in mammals is a largely unexplored area of research. Recent studies have suggested that freshwater cyanotoxins can elicit immunomodulation through interaction with specific components of innate immunity, thus potentially altering disease susceptibility parameters for fish, wildlife, and human health owing to the conserved nature of the vertebrate immune system. In this study, we investigated the effects of three microcystin congeners (LR, LA, and RR), nodularin-R, and cylindrospermopsin for their ability to directly interact with nine different human Toll-like receptors (TLRs)—key pathogen recognition receptors for innate immunity. Toxin concentrations were verified by LC/MS/MS prior to use. Using an established HEK293-hTLR NF-κB reporter assay, we concluded that none of the tested toxins (29–90 nM final concentration) directly interacted with human TLRs in either an agonistic or antagonistic manner. These results suggest that earlier reports of cyanotoxin-induced NF-κB responses likely occur through different surface receptors to mediate inflammation.

Chemosphere↗

USGS1993

Wetland modeling and information needs at Stillwater National Wildlife Refuge

The marshes in and around Stillwater National Wildlife Refuge (the Refuge) are extremely dynamic; expanding and contracting in size both seasonally, due to runoff and subsequent evapotranspiration, and over longer periods, due to climatic variation. The dynamic nature of these marshes results in a diversity of wetland habitats, which support a variety of migratory birds. To maintain this wetland diversity and control the loss of migratory bird habitat in the Lahontan Valley, the Refuge was established and currently manages a complex of marsh units. However, changes in the hydrology, and changes that will occur as a result of the Fallon Paiute-Shoshone and Truckee-Carson-Pyramid Lake Water Rights Settlement Act (Public Law 101-618, 104 Stat. 3389), greatly affect the Refuge's wetland management capability. In light of these changes, and the legal requirements associated with environmental impact assessments, the Refuge convened a workshop to discuss several aspects of wetland management in the Lahontan Valley. The workshop, described in this report, had three primary objectives: 1. discuss the types and relative proportions of primary wetland habitats that should be provided as described in the settlement act; 2. discuss wetland management models that might be developed to help manage these marshes under hydrologic regimes likely in the future; and 3. discuss future information and monitoring needs, including proposals for valley-wide biodiversity surveys, which would be helpful when considering withdrawn Bureau of Reclamation (BR) lands for possible incorporation into the Refuge. Several presentations at the beginning of the workshop provided a common basis for discussing these objectives. Refuge staff provided background on the history and past management. The Nature Conservatory discussed their role in the settlement act, proposals for valley-wide biodiversity surveys, and results of a literature review for Stillwater Marsh and the Lahontan Valley (Nachlinger 1993). Kay Fowler provided an historical context of changes in vegetation and waterbird use of the marshes based on her ethnography of the local Paiute Indians (Fowler 1993). Finally, Bob Elston discussed a model that predicts archaeological sites based on environmental variables (Raven and Elston 1989). The workshop was organized by staff from the Refuge and facilitated by the authors of this report. Participants included Ron Anglin, Bill Henry, Anne Janik, Cliff Creger, Fred Paveglio, and Mary Jo Elpers of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (the Service); Jeff Baumgartner, Jan Nachlinger, Hope Humphries, and Graham Chisholm of The Nature Conservancy; David Yardas of the Environmental Defense Fund; David Robertson of Robertson Software, Inc.; Norm Saake, Terry Retterer, and Larry Neel of the Nevada Department of Wildlife; Lew Oring and Kay Fowler of the University of Nevada; and Robert Elston of Intermountain Research.

Report↗

USGS2016

Changes in the prevalence of avian disease and mosquito vectors at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge: a 14-year perspective and assessment of future risk

Throughout the main Hawaiian Islands, introduced mosquito-borne disease has had, and continues to have, a profound impact on the distributions and abundance of native Hawaiian forest birds. Populations of remaining native forest birds are largely restricted to high elevation forests where mean temperatures are marginal for vector and parasite development and limited availability of larval mosquito habitat constrains mosquito populations and disease transmission. Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (HFNWR) was established for the preservation of endemic avifauna in 1985. Since its creation, native bird communities there have remained intact and most species populations are stable or increasing. However, avian malaria had been detected at HFNWR in the past and, in light of documented climate change, new concerns have been raised regarding the long-term fate of the refuge’s forest birds. To examine the possible changes in avian malaria transmission at HFNWR we sampled forest birds for blood parasites, trapped adult mosquitoes and surveyed larval mosquito habitat at three sites during 2012 and compared our results with similar data collected between 1998 and 1999. We tested blood samples by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), immunoblotting, and microscopy to determine prevalence of acute and chronic infection and used attractive gravid traps to sample the vector mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus. Our study documented spatial trends and temporal changes in the prevalence of avian malaria, mosquito presence, larval mosquito habitat and feral pig activity at HFNWR. We found evidence of local transmission in high elevation forests, a general pattern of increasing prevalence at lower elevations and along a South to North gradient and a two-fold decrease in the prevalence of avian malaria in the intervening 14 years. Despite considerable effort, we were unable to detect larval C. quinquefasciatus and captured only one adult indicating that the vector of avian malaria has a very limited presence at HFNWR. We did, however, document the establishment of another invasive mosquito, Aedes japonicus japonicus , and its occurrence in tree fern cavities and rock pools as larval habitat in the lower forests of HFNWR. We suggest that interspecific competition by A. j. japonicus and predation by a suite of native predators may provide biotic resistance to the establishment of permanent C. quinquefasciatus populations. While current predictions of climate change in the Hawaiian Islands include a gradual warming and enhanced transmission by mid-century, the current cooling trend recorded at high elevation HFNWR illustrates the importance of monitoring to document fine scale temporal and site specific changes in prevalence. Long term changes in precipitation may have a more profound effect on local transmission of malaria than temperature and we may have already seen some potential impacts of an extended drought at HFNWR with a decrease in feral pig activity and pig associated larval mosquito habitat and increases in stream-associated larval mosquito habitat.

Hawaii↗

USGS2008

Historical and hypothetical future sedimentation and water storage in Kajakai Reservoir, central Afghanistan

Sedimentation has reduced water storage in Kajakai Reservoir. If current sedimentation rates continue, hypothetical future reservoir water volumes at the spillway elevation of 1,033.5 meters could be reduced about 22 percent from 2006 to 2057. Even if the spillway elevation is raised to 1,045 meters, a severe drought could result in large multiyear irrigation-supply deficits in which reservoir water levels remain below 1,022 meters for more than 4 years. Hypothetical climate change and sedimentation could result in greater water-supply deficits. The chance of having sufficient water supplies in Kajakai Reservoir during the worst month is about 47 percent.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2013

Design of Cycle 3 of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program, 2013-23: Part 2: Science plan for improved water-quality information and management

This report presents a science strategy for the third decade of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program, which since 1991, has been responsible for providing nationally consistent information on the quality of the Nation's streams and groundwater; how water quality is changing over time; and the major natural and human factors that affect current water quality conditions and trends. The strategy is based on an extensive evaluation of the accomplishments of NAWQA over its first two decades, the current status of water-quality monitoring activities by USGS and its partners, and an updated analysis of stakeholder priorities. The plan is designed to address priority issues and national needs identified by NAWQA stakeholders and the National Research Council (2012) irrespective of budget constraints. This plan describes four major goals for the third decade (Cycle 3), the approaches for monitoring, modeling, and scientific studies, key partnerships required to achieve these goals, and products and outcomes that will result from planned assessment activities. The science plan for 2013–2023 is a comprehensive approach to meet stakeholder priorities for: (1) rebuilding NAWQA monitoring networks for streams, rivers, and groundwater, and (2) upgrading models used to extrapolate and forecast changes in water-quality and stream ecosystem condition in response to changing climate and land use. The Cycle 3 plan continues approaches that have been central to the Program’s long-term success, but adjusts monitoring intensities and study designs to address critical information needs and identified data gaps. Restoration of diminished monitoring networks and new directions in modeling and interpretative studies address growing and evolving public and stakeholder needs for water-quality information and improved management, particularly in the face of increasing challenges related to population growth, increasing demands for water, and changing land use and climate. However, a combination of funding growth and extensive collaboration with other USGS programs and other Federal, State, and local agencies, public interest groups, professional and trade associations, academia, and private industry will be needed to fully realize the monitoring and modeling goals laid out in this plan (USGS Fact Sheet 2013-3008).

Open-File Report↗

USGS2021

Cape Romain partnership for coastal protection

This final report summarizes activities, outcomes, and lessons learned from a 3-year project titled “Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges” with the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and local partners in the surrounding South Carolina Lowcountry. The Lowcountry is classified as the 10-county area encompassing the coastal plain of South Carolina (this report specifically focuses on Berkeley, Charleston, and Georgetown Counties). The goals of this work, sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SECASC), were to foster active engagement with stakeholders; to develop a comprehensive definition of adaptation problems faced by agencies, organizations, and individuals near the Cape Romain NWR that accounts for global change, local values, knowledge and perceptions; and to encourage social learning and building of effective networks and trust across South Carolina Lowcountry organizations and individuals. Although project scoping began at the scale of the Atlantic seaboard, by engaging with NWRs from Massachusetts to Florida, participating refuge personnel eventually selected the Cape Romain NWR to serve as a case study for testing our goals. The Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation was established to address global change impacts at a regional level and includes representation from Federal and State resource agencies, local conservation nongovernmental organizations, and organizations representing underserved community interests. Research topics, originating from discussions with Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation members, focused on quantifying key drivers of change including localized sea-level rise (SLR) predictions, estimates of coastal hurricane inundation as amplified by SLR, and urban growth trends and forecasts. These key drivers provided a foundation to engage stakeholders in planning exercises to begin a process of collective understanding and collaborative decision making. The goal of this process was to develop collective strategies of adaptation to enhance community and ecosystem resilience in the South Carolina Lowcountry. South Carolina’s Lowcountry is experiencing rapid environmental and social transformation because of SLR rates approaching twice the global average, chronic tidal flooding and catastrophic storm surges, erosion and loss of habitats that provide essential services to wildlife and humans, and increasing social polarization fueled by aggressive low-density urban growth and other forms of land conversion. To support characterizations of plausible future scenarios, we used available or, in some cases, developed new models to project future conditions of key environmental and social-economic drivers. Because of the imprecision of mean global SLR projections, the SECASC commissioned a climatological study to account for local conditions and multiple representative concentration pathways to project a tailored distribution of future sea levels. These projections were matched to SLR scenarios provided by existing models to anticipate the range of future coastal habitat changes in the South Carolina Lowcountry. SLR scenarios were also incorporated into existing storm-surge models, which do not account for alternate baseline sea levels, to project the local effects of future hurricanes. To evaluate the extent and effects of population growth and urban expansion, we relied on an existing urban-growth model to map the spatial distribution of land-conversion probabilities, the total area of which is predicted to increase twofold to threefold over the next 60 years. In addition to this simplified model, an econometric model is in development to account for nonlinear feedback dynamics in land value, land use, and ecosystem service production. Although not yet completed, the goals of this model are to produce more-detailed projections of growth dynamics and to allow predictions of development patterns resulting from alternate land-use planning policies and incentives. Collaborative planning for an uncertain future requires more than providing decision makers with information on future physical and ecological conditions; developing effective and consensual strategies must also integrate sociological values, multiple cultural perspectives, and an understanding of human behavior. To support broad stakeholder engagement in integrative approaches to adaptation planning, emphasis was placed on the importance of considering differences in how individuals perceive their environment and create meaning. Because cultural frameworks form the basis for perceptions and, ultimately, the behaviors of individuals and institutions, we describe a model of human behavior and how it can be used to understand the effect of cultural complexity and variation in perception on choices, behavioral change, and long-term maintenance of behaviors. We consider a model commonly used in the field of behavioral health that accommodates variation in human perception when describing stages of behavior and the dynamics of behavioral change. Tailoring communication and engagement activities to targeted stakeholders is likely to benefit from increased understanding of behavioral change processes. The complex nature of this problem limited the usefulness of a traditional decision-analytic approach, we explored alternative methods for engagement, collaborative learning and decision making. Recognizing that project partners and Lowcountry stakeholders may be at different stages of preparedness and interest level for modifying behavior as a function of global change, we facilitated a scenario-planning exercise to familiarize partners with this well-established approach for communicating the opportunities and threats arising under alternative, plausible futures. We developed narratives for four alternative South Carolina Lowcountry scenarios to be used in later strategic planning that focus on quantitative trends for three primary drivers with high impact and high uncertainty: manifestations of climate change, social-political shifts at a global level, and forces of local value and power structures. This scenario-planning exercise underscored the complex relation between the temporospatial scale of the production of ecological goods and services and the institutional scale at which they are managed. We then guided the partners through an assessment of the relevant strengths and weaknesses of the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection, using the threats and opportunities characterized by each scenario to understand how the partnership might respond when attempting to meet conservation and societal objectives. The partnership identified key strengths including partnership experience, outreach and technical capacities, a substantial conservation land base, and high social cohesion in the South Carolina Lowcountry. Limited communication expertise, institutional inertia, and insufficient staffing and funding were recognized as important weaknesses across the partnership. By examining and scoring combinations of internal strengths and weaknesses and external threats and opportunities, the partnership developed sets of prioritized strategies to consider in the context of a given scenario. Although we had insufficient time to examine all scenarios in detail, the intent was to identify a portfolio of strategic actions to address threats and opportunities represented in multiple plausible futures. Top-ranking strategies encompassed a range of actions that focused on strengthening the conservation community and communicating the benefits of nature (that is, ecosystem services) to leveraging partnerships to expand land protection. This report also details the methods and preliminary results of several models developed or applied in support of this project. Two parcel-selection algorithms were used to evaluate anticipated habitat changes and patterns of urban growth to guide decisions on optimal conservation reserve design to protect habitat communities. One approach used a widely available planning software (MARXAN) to maximize conservation benefits near the Cape Romain NWR, whereas the other approach was a novel application of economic theory to account for uncertainty in future conditions and for the risks of unanticipated habitat loss. This latter model applies modern portfolio theory to estimate the risk of investing in any portfolio of land parcels (that is, candidate “reserves”) under climate-change uncertainty by quantifying the variation and spatial correlation of conservation benefits derived from each portfolio. We expanded the range of actions beyond simply whether or not to invest in a set of land parcels, an approach commonly used in spatial conservation planning, to also include consideration of divestment from currently protected lands. Such refinements allow for better accounting of system dynamics and can evaluate the benefits of flexible conservation tools such as rolling easements. Model results were conditional on a decision maker’s risk tolerance but highlighted general strategies of land conservation to increase future habitat representation beyond what is expected under the current protected land base. We built models that may help inform coastal planning by estimating salinity dynamics and the performance of oyster reef restoration efforts to predict the combined effects of global change and management of freshwater flows on coastal habitats and the processes that contribute to their resilience. These models can support restoration decisions by evaluating the expected benefits of site locations for shoreline protection and fisheries production. Lastly, we developed a spatially explicit economic model that predicts feedback dynamics among land value, land-use change, and effects on ecosystem service provision to explore zoning policies and incentives on urban growth and ecosystem services. We summarize these efforts with insights and considerations for the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection to continue to engage stakeholders in effective adaptation planning. First, notions of place attachment (referred to as sense of place), and the role of culture in social discourse are increasingly being used to understand the complex interactions between society and the environment and how societies respond and adapt to climate change. Sense of place was a unifying theme whenever the future of the South Carolina Lowcountry was discussed. The contribution of the South Carolina Lowcountry’s environmental wealth, rich cultural heritage, and quality of life to sense of place has important implications for how adaptation planning might best be pursued. More community-based governance of the commons (in other words, natural and cultural resources held in common), in which broad stakeholder participation and power sharing are key elements, is considered important. This devolution of governance is characterized by polycentric institutions and self-organizing social networks that promote a local culture of knowledge sharing, problem solving, and learning. These so-called bridging organizations (or individuals) often provide the leadership necessary to bring together potentially disparate Government agencies and institutions, private organizations, and individuals in a collective process of problem solving. Our observations also suggest that the conservation community in the South Carolina Lowcountry views its activities as integral to the broader governance of social-ecological systems, in which responses to the forces of global change are mediated through culture, economics, and politics. Rather than directly competing with other interests, the South Carolina Lowcountry conservation community seems to embrace an interpretation of conservation in which the fundamental objective is the quality of human life rather than environmental protection. Fundamental to the types of governance reforms described above is the notion of coproduction, in which experts and users collaborate to develop a shared body of knowledge. In this approach, scientists work with stakeholders to help frame questions, design research, and collect and analyze data. Such sustained collaborations are increasingly believed to be an effective way to produce useable (or actionable) science. The emphasis on social learning, leveraging strong social networks, coordinating and deliberating among diverse stakeholders, and applying principles of adaptive management is an essential contribution to adaptive capacity. The diverse and robust set of scientific approaches, methods to help stakeholders collaborate in effective and goal-driven planning processes, and decision tools resulting from this project hopefully will assist Cape Romain NWR and its partners prepare for climatic, ecological, and social changes over the coming decades.

South Carolina↗

USGS2003

Simulation of net infiltration and potential recharge using a distributed-parameter watershed model of the Death Valley region, Nevada and California

This report presents the development and application of the distributed-parameter watershed model, INFILv3, for estimating the temporal and spatial distribution of net infiltration and potential recharge in the Death Valley region, Nevada and California. The estimates of net infiltration quantify the downward drainage of water across the lower boundary of the root zone and are used to indicate potential recharge under variable climate conditions and drainage basin characteristics. Spatial variability in recharge in the Death Valley region likely is high owing to large differences in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, bedrock permeability, soil thickness, vegetation characteristics, and contributions to recharge along active stream channels. The quantity and spatial distribution of recharge representing the effects of variable climatic conditions and drainage basin characteristics on recharge are needed to reduce uncertainty in modeling ground-water flow. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Department of Energy, developed a regional saturated-zone ground-water flow model of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system to help evaluate the current hydrogeologic system and the potential effects of natural or human-induced changes. Although previous estimates of recharge have been made for most areas of the Death Valley region, including the area defined by the boundary of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, the uncertainty of these estimates is high, and the spatial and temporal variability of the recharge in these basins has not been quantified. To estimate the magnitude and distribution of potential recharge in response to variable climate and spatially varying drainage basin characteristics, the INFILv3 model uses a daily water-balance model of the root zone with a primarily deterministic representation of the processes controlling net infiltration and potential recharge. The daily water balance includes precipitation (as either rain or snow), snow accumulation, sublimation, snowmelt, infiltration into the root zone, evapotranspiration, drainage, water content change throughout the root-zone profile (represented as a 6-layered system), runoff (defined as excess rainfall and snowmelt) and surface water run-on (defined as runoff that is routed downstream), and net infiltration (simulated as drainage from the bottom root-zone layer). Potential evapotranspiration is simulated using an hourly solar radiation model to simulate daily net radiation, and daily evapotranspiration is simulated as an empirical function of root zone water content and potential evapotranspiration. The model uses daily climate records of precipitation and air temperature from a regionally distributed network of 132 climate stations and a spatially distributed representation of drainage basin characteristics defined by topography, geology, soils, and vegetation to simulate daily net infiltration at all locations, including stream channels with intermittent streamflow in response to runoff from rain and snowmelt. The temporal distribution of daily, monthly, and annual net infiltration can be used to evaluate the potential effect of future climatic conditions on potential recharge. The INFILv3 model inputs representing drainage basin characteristics were developed using a geographic information system (GIS) to define a set of spatially distributed input parameters uniquely assigned to each grid cell of the INFILv3 model grid. The model grid, which was defined by a digital elevation model (DEM) of the Death Valley region, consists of 1,252,418 model grid cells with a uniform grid cell dimension of 278.5 meters in the north-south and east-west directions. The elevation values from the DEM were used with monthly regression models developed from the daily climate data to estimate the spatial distribution of daily precipitation and air temperature. The elevation values were also used to simulate atmosp

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2019

Optimizing historical preservation under climate change—An overview of the optimal preservation model and pilot testing at Cape Lookout National Seashore

Adapting cultural resources to climate-change effects challenges traditional cultural resource decision making because some adaptation strategies can negatively affect the integrity of cultural resources. Yet, the inevitability of climate-change effects—even given the uncertain timing of those effects—necessitates that managers begin prioritizing resources for climate-change adaptation. Prioritization imposes an additional management challenge: managers must make difficult tradeoffs to achieve desired management outcomes related to maximizing the resource values. This report provides an overview of a pilot effort to integrate vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity), significance, and use potential metrics in a decision framework—the Optimal Preservation (OptiPres) Model—to inform climate adaptation planning of a subset of buildings in historic districts (listed on the National Register of Historic Places) at Cape Lookout National Seashore. The OptiPres Model uses a numerical optimization algorithm to assess the timing and application of a portfolio of adaptation actions that could most effectively preserve an assortment of buildings associated with different histories, intended uses, and construction design and materials over a 30-year planning horizon. The outputs from the different budget scenarios, though not prescriptive, provide visualizations of and insights to the sequence and type of optimal actions and the changes to individual building resource values and accumulated resource values. Study findings suggest the OptiPres Model has planning utility related to fiscal efficiency by identifying a budget threshold necessary to maintain the historical significance and use potential of historical buildings while reducing vulnerability (collectively, the accumulated resource value). Specifically, findings identify that a minimum of the industry standard ($222,000 annually for the 17 buildings) is needed to maintain the current accumulated resource value. Additionally, results suggest that additional appropriations provided on regular intervals when annual appropriations are at the industry standard are nearly as efficient as annual appropriations at twice the rate of industry standards and increase the amount of accumulated resource values to nearly the same level. However, periodic increases in funding may increase the risks posed to buildings from the probability of a natural hazard (that is, damage or loss from a hurricane). Suggestions for model refinements include developing standardized cost estimations for adaptation actions based on square footage and building materials, developing metrics to quantify the historical integrity of buildings, integrating social values data, including additional objectives (such as public safety) in the model, refining vulnerability data and transforming the data to include risk assessment, and incorporating stochastic events (that is, hurricane and wind effects) into the model.

North Carolina↗

USGS2007

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States: Climatic and geologic framework

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States results from the complex interplay of climate, geology, and vegetation across widely ranging spatial and temporal scales. Present-day recharge tends to be narrowly focused in time and space. Widespread water-table declines accompanied agricultural development during the twentieth century, demonstrating that sustainable ground-water supplies are not guaranteed when part of the extracted resource represents paleorecharge. Climatic controls on ground-water recharge range from seasonal cycles of summer monsoonal and winter frontal storms to multimillennial cycles of glacial and interglacial periods. Precipitation patterns reflect global-scale interactions among the oceans, atmosphere, and continents. Large-scale climatic influences associated with El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillations strongly but irregularly control weather in the study area, so that year-to-year variations in precipitation and ground-water recharge are large and difficult to predict. Proxy data indicate geologically recent periods of multidecadal droughts unlike any in the modern instrumental record. Anthropogenically induced climate change likely will reduce ground-water recharge through diminished snowpack at higher elevations, and perhaps through increased drought. Future changes in El Niño and monsoonal patterns, both crucial to precipitation in the study area, are highly uncertain in current models. Land-use modifications influence ground-water recharge directly through vegetation, irrigation, and impermeable area, and indirectly through climate change. High ranges bounding the study area—the San Bernadino Mountains and Sierra Nevada to the west, and the Wasatch and southern Colorado Rocky Mountains to the east—provide external geologic controls on ground-water recharge. Internal geologic controls stem from tectonic processes that led to numerous, variably connected alluvial-filled basins, exposure of extensive Paleozoic aquifers in mountainous recharge areas, and distinct modes of recharge in the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range subregions.

southwestern United States↗

USGS2015

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2014 annual report

This is the seventh report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual activities conducted by the USGS for addressing specific management needs identified by WLCI partners. In FY2014, there were 26 projects, including a new one that was completed, two others that were also completed, and several that entered new phases or directions. The 26 projects fall into several categories: (1) synthesizing and analyzing existing data to identify current conditions on the landscape and using the data to develop models for projecting past and future landscape conditions; (2) monitoring indicators of ecosystem conditions and the effectiveness of on-the-ground habitat projects; (3) conducting research to elucidate the mechanisms underlying wildlife and habitat responses to changing land uses; (4) managing and making accessible the large number of databases, maps, and other products being developed; and (5) coordinating efforts among WLCI partners, helping them use USGS-developed decision-support tools, and integrating WLCI outcomes with future habitat enhancement and research projects. The new (completed) project was the development and publication of a public outreach piece for visitors of Fossil Butte National Monument. The final product was a USGS Fact Sheet that capitalized on previously collected elk-monitoring data to interpret the ecology of the Monument’s elk population and the importance of the Monument’s habitats to this highly visible wildlife species. One of the completed projects entailed developing and evaluating a synthetic approach to high-resolution satellite imagery for use in effectiveness monitoring, which culminated in a journal article. The other completed project was a coalescing of two similar tasks under data and information management that pertain to Web application development and the development of outreach and graphic products into a single integrated project that focuses on developing and maintaining/upgrading Web applications and other tools for visualizing, mapping, and using geospatial data. Major accomplishments for FY2014 included several publications, including Part B of an energy resources map that (with Part A) depicts coal, wind, oil, gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar energy production in the WLCI region. Two published works associated with sage-grouse included a Wildlife Monograph on prioritizing species’ habitats across large landscapes, multiple seasons, and novel areas (using sage-grouse in Wyoming as an example), and a USGS Data Series report that includes both the data used in the habitat-prioritization models and the habitat prioritization models developed for sage-grouse. Our Science Team also published a framework for conducting large, collaborative projects that rely on geospatial data, and a paper that describes the efficacy of fusing satellite data collected at various resolutions for measuring and monitoring vegetation changes. These products are all invaluable tools for maximizing the efficiency and effectiveness of managing species of concern, conducting future landscape-scale assessments, and monitoring status and trends of landscape conditions. Other highlights of FY2014 included a renewed effort to gather and analyze wildlife and habitat status and trend data for the WLCI Interagency Monitoring Database (IAMD) to assess long-term trends and cumulative effects associated with land-use and climate changes. Water-monitoring efforts included drilling four new groundwater-monitoring wells in the Green and New Fork River basins near the proposed Normally Pressured Lance Formation energy development, and continued data collection at established water-monitoring sites. Three additional wells were sampled as part of the Wyoming Groundwater Monitoring Network, bringing the total to 19 Network wells sampled in the WLCI region since 2010. Combined, these water-monitoring efforts can help to identify potential changes in water quality or levels that may result from land-use changes. Major terrestrial monitoring accomplishments included processing satellite imagery from 1985−2010 to develop a historical perspective of long-term vegetation changes, which can serve as a basis for monitoring current and future trends in sagebrush steppe. Such data are crucial tools for agencies tasked with sage-grouse management and conservation. The USGS WLCI Science Team also continued monitoring and testing methods for evaluating WLCI habitat treatments designed to promote aspen regeneration and enhance sage-grouse habitat, and to assess how those treatments influence invasive species distributions and ungulate herbivory. Highlights included analyzing field data collected to elucidate the relationships between sage-grouse habitat use and the proximity of energy infrastructure, and using new instruments to measure productivity responses of aspen woodlands to various factors. Numerous FY2014 accomplishments specifically addressed agency needs to manage and conserve Wyoming’s wildlife species of concern. A pygmy rabbit habitat model and Wyoming distribution map were completed to identify factors associated with rabbit habitat occupancy. Previous work on sage-grouse population dynamics was expanded to better understand the factors that drive long-term viability of sage-grouse populations and to develop a tool that helps to identify key factors limiting sage-grouse persistence in Wyoming. Field work and data analyses continued for elucidating the relationships between sagebrush songbird abundance and productivity, the intensity of energy development, and community dynamics of nest predators. For the mule deer study, mixed mountain shrublands important to migrating and wintering mule deer were mapped and delivered to WLCI partners. Additionally, the relationships between energy development and crucial winter habitat for mule deer were evaluated, and a new phase of work was implemented to better understand relationships between plant phenology and mule deer migration movements. Finally, initial analyses of data collected to evaluate fish-community composition in relation to habitat quality indicate that water quality, as measured by concentrations of hydrocarbons, water temperature, and others parameters, has been diminished in subwatersheds with higher levels of energy development. Overall, the outcomes and products of these wildlife studies contribute significantly to the information and tools needed for addressing effects of land-use changes on Wyoming’s species of concern. Finally, capabilities of the WLCI Web site and the USGS ScienceBase infrastructure were maintained and upgraded to help ensure access to and efficient use of all the WLCI data, products, assessment tools, and outreach materials that have been developed. Of particular note is the completion of three Web applications developed for mapping (1) the 1900−2008 progression of oil and gas development;(2) the predicted distributions of Wyoming’s Species of Greatest Conservation Need; and (3) the locations of coal and wind energy production, sage-grouse distribution and core management areas, and alternative routes for transmission lines within the WLCI region. Collectively, these applications tools provide WLCI planners and managers with powerful tools for better understanding the distributions of wildlife species and potential alternatives for energy development.

Wyoming↗

USGS2022

Integrating climate considerations into grazing management programs in national parks

The National Park Service (NPS) is responsible for managing livestock grazing in nearly 100 parks, and several park grazing management planning efforts are currently underway. However, there is a recognized need to update grazing management practices to be responsive and adaptive to future climate change. As a step toward developing a process to address this need, this project worked with Dinosaur National Monument to consider climate change in its grazing management planning process. In this project, we convened researchers, managers, subject-matter experts, and climate change adaptation specialists through a participatory climate change scenario planning workshop to develop and apply a small set of challenging, plausible, relevant, and divergent scenarios that qualitatively assessed how grazing resources and management may be affected under climate change.

Final Project Report↗

USGS2017

Monitoring Hawaiian biodiversity: Pilot study to assess changes to forest birds and their habitat

Biological diversity, or biodiversity, is the variety and abundance of species in a defined area, and is one of the oldest and most basic descriptions of biological communities. Understanding how populations and communities are structured and change over space and time in response to internal and external forces is a management priority. Effective management practices and conservation strategies depend on our understanding of the relationship between changes in biodiversity and ecological drivers such as invasive species, land use and climate change. To demonstrate how changes in biodiversity may be monitored over a large (400 km2) tract of native forest habitat, we compared bird and plant community composition and structure in an upper montane region of Hawai‘i Island originally surveyed in 1977 as part of the Hawai‘i Forest Bird Survey (Scott et al. 1986) with a comprehensive sample of the same region in 2015. Our findings suggest that across a region spanning an elevation range of 600 to 2,000 m considerable changes occurred in the plant and bird communities between 1977 and 2015. Endemic and indigenous plants species richness (i.e., total number of species) decreased dramatically in the low and middle elevations below an invasive weed front, whereas naturalized plant species richness did not change between the two periods at any elevation. Endemic bird abundance decreased and two species were lost in the lower elevations (< 1,100 m) between 1977 and 2015, while naturalized bird abundance and the numbers of species increased in the same area. In addition to changes in community composition, the structure of the forest showed evidence of changes in dominant and sub-dominant tree canopy cover, shrub and herbaceous cover, dominant tree canopy height, and matted fern cover. Biodiversity monitoring helps to define specific conservation targets and to measure progress towards reaching those targets. It is difficult to ascribe causative factors to a change in biodiversity without directly manipulating the environment. Forest habitat in a variety of settings (i.e., islands and regions with differing land-use histories and elevation ranges), however, can provide opportunities to evaluate the influence of ecological drivers. Declines in native bird biodiversity in low-elevation areas may be attributed to invasive species as land use and climate conditions have remained relatively similar over the 40-year period. Thus, the shift from an endemic-naturalized co-dominated community in 1977 to one dominated by naturalized, alien birds in 2015, and reduction in native bird abundance over that period, may reflect increasing dominance by naturalized plants within this forested area. Inferences drawn from analyses of region-wide surveys, especially with replicate datasets, will facilitate the identification of broad-scale changes in biodiversity, and provide a needed current datum in Hawaiian plant and bird biodiversity monitoring.

Hawaii↗

USGS2015

Ecosystem carbon stocks and sequestration potential of federal lands across the conterminous United States

Federal lands across the conterminous United States (CONUS) account for 23.5% of the CONUS terrestrial area but have received no systematic studies on their ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics and contribution to the national C budgets. The methodology for US Congress-mandated national biological C sequestration potential assessment was used to evaluate ecosystem C dynamics in CONUS federal lands at present and in the future under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B, A2, and B1. The total ecosystem C stock was estimated as 11,613 Tg C in 2005 and projected to be 13,965 Tg C in 2050, an average increase of 19.4% from the baseline. The projected annual C sequestration rate (in kilograms of carbon per hectare per year) from 2006 to 2050 would be sinks of 620 and 228 for forests and grasslands, respectively, and C sources of 13 for shrublands. The federal lands’ contribution to the national ecosystem C budget could decrease from 23.3% in 2005 to 20.8% in 2050. The C sequestration potential in the future depends not only on the footprint of individual ecosystems but also on each federal agency’s land use and management. The results presented here update our current knowledge about the baseline ecosystem C stock and sequestration potential of federal lands, which would be useful for federal agencies to decide management practices to achieve the national greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation goal.

PNAS↗

USGS2021

The distribution and structure of mangroves (Avicennia germinans and Rhizophora mangle) near a rapidly changing range limit in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico

In coastal wetlands, one of the most striking examples of climate change is the poleward range expansion of mangrove forests in response to warming winters. In North America, the Cedar Key region has often been considered the range limit for mangroves along the western coast of Florida (USA). However, within the past several decades, robust stands of Avicennia germinans and Rhizophora mangle have been observed in the Apalachicola Bay region, which is 200 km northwest of Cedar Key. Here, we combined field vegetation surveys, historical herbarium records, and analyses of past temperature data (station-based and gridded) to examine the distribution and structure of these two mangrove species in the Apalachicola Bay region. Historical records indicate that mangroves have been present for at least 150 years. However, our abundance and structural data indicate that mangroves are currently reaching heights, densities, and reproductive stages not historically reported. We found a surprisingly broad distribution and high number of R. mangle individuals, which is unlike A. germinans –dominated mangrove range limits in Louisiana and Texas. Using cold temperature tolerance thresholds and gridded temperature data, we show that A. germinans and R. mangle distributions can be influenced by spatial variation in the frequency of extreme freeze events, which can be used to spatially depict the risk of mangrove cold damage. Given the rapid pace of change and the potential for abrupt landscape-scale transformation, our findings reinforce the pressing need to advance understanding of mangrove expansion dynamics near northern range limits in the southeastern United States.

Florida↗

USGS2015

Changing arctic ecosystems—What is causing the rapid increase of snow geese in northern Alaska?

Through the Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) informs key resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information on current and future ecosystem response to a warming climate. The Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska is a key study area within the USGS CAE initiative. This region has experienced a warming trend over the past decades, leading to decreased sea ice, permafrost thaw, and an advancement of spring phenology. The number of birds on the ACP also is changing, marked by increased populations of the four species of geese that nest in the region. The Snow Goose ( Chen caerulescens ) is the most rapidly increasing of these species. USGS CAE research is quantifying these changes and their implications for management agencies.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Global synthesis of the documented and projected effects of climate change on inland fishes

Although climate change is an important factor affecting inland fishes globally, a comprehensive review of how climate change has impacted and will continue to impact inland fishes worldwide does not currently exist. We conducted an extensive, systematic primary literature review to identify English-language, peer-reviewed journal publications with projected and documented examples of climate change impacts on inland fishes globally. Since the mid-1980s, scientists have projected the effects of climate change on inland fishes, and more recently, documentation of climate change impacts on inland fishes has increased. Of the thousands of title and abstracts reviewed, we selected 624 publications for a full text review: 63 of these publications documented an effect of climate change on inland fishes, while 116 publications projected inland fishes’ response to future climate change. Documented and projected impacts of climate change varied, but several trends emerged including differences between documented and projected impacts of climate change on salmonid abundance ( P = 0.0002). Salmonid abundance decreased in 89.5% of documented effects compared to 35.7% of projected effects, where variable effects were more commonly reported (64.3%). Studies focused on responses of salmonids (61% of total) to climate change in North America and Europe, highlighting major gaps in the literature for taxonomic groups and geographic focus. Elucidating global patterns and identifying knowledge gaps of climate change effects on inland fishes will help managers better anticipate local changes in fish populations and assemblages, resulting in better development of management plans, particularly in systems with little information on climate change effects on fish.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗