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Dynamics and spatio-temporal variability of environmental factors in Eastern Australia using functional principal component analysis

This paper introduces a new technique in ecology to analyze spatial and temporal variability in environmental variables. By using simple statistics, we explore the relations between abiotic and biotic variables that influence animal distributions. However, spatial and temporal variability in rainfall, a key variable in ecological studies, can cause difficulties to any basic model including time evolution. The study was of a landscape scale (three million square kilometers in eastern Australia), mainly over the period of 19982004. We simultaneously considered qualitative spatial (soil and habitat types) and quantitative temporal (rainfall) variables in a Geographical Information System environment. In addition to some techniques commonly used in ecology, we applied a new method, Functional Principal Component Analysis, which proved to be very suitable for this case, as it explained more than 97% of the total variance of the rainfall data, providing us with substitute variables that are easier to manage and are even able to explain rainfall patterns. The main variable came from a habitat classification that showed strong correlations with rainfall values and soil types. ?? 2010 World Scientific Publishing Company.

Journal of Biological Systems↗

Comparing sample bias correction methods for species distribution modeling using virtual species

A key assumption in species distribution modeling (SDM) with presence‐background (PB) methods is that sampling of occurrence localities is unbiased and that any sampling bias is proportional to the background distribution of environmental covariates. This assumption is rarely met when SDM practitioners rely on federated museum records from natural history collections for geo‐located occurrences due to inherent sampling bias found in these collections. We use a simulation approach to explore the effectiveness of three methods developed to account for sampling bias in SDM with PB frameworks. Two of the methods rely on careful filtering of observation data—geographic thinning (G‐Filter) and environmental thinning (E‐Filter)—while a third, FactorBiasOut, creates selection weights for background data to bias locations toward areas where the observation dataset was sampled. While these methods have been assessed previously, evaluation has emphasized spatial predictions of habitat potential. Here, we dig deeper into the effectiveness of these methods by exploring how sampling bias not only affects predictions of habitat potential, but also our understanding of niche characteristics such as which explanatory variables and response curves best represent species–environment relationships. We simulate 100 virtual species ranging from generalist to specialist in their habitat preferences and introduce geographic and environmental bias at three intensity levels to measure the effectiveness of each correction method to (1) predict true probability of occurrence across a study area, (2) recover true species–environment relationships, and (3) identify true explanatory variables. We find that the FactorBiasOut most often showed the greatest improvement in recreating known distributions but did no better at correctly identifying environmental covariates or recreating species–environment relationships than G‐Filter or E‐Filter methods. Narrow niche species are most problematic for biased calibration datasets, such that correction methods can, in some cases, make predictions worse.

Ecosphere↗

A Bayesian life-cycle model to estimate escapement at maximum sustained yield in salmon based on limited information

Life-cycle models combine several strengths for estimating population parameters and biological reference points of harvested species and are particularly useful for those exhibiting distinct habitat shifts and experiencing contrasting environments. Unfortunately, time series data are often limited to counts of adult abundance and harvest. By incorporating data from other populations and by dynamically linking the life-history stages, Bayesian life-cycle models can be used to estimate stage-specific productivities and capacities as well as abundance of breeders that produce maximum sustained yield (MSY). Using coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) as our case study, we show that incorporating information on marine survival variability from nearby populations can improve model estimates and affect management parameters such as escapement at MSY. We further show that the expected long-term average yield of a fishery managed for a spawner escapement target that produces MSY strongly depends on the average marine survival. Our results illustrate the usefulness of incorporating information from other sources and highlight the importance of accounting for variation in marine survival when making inferences about the management of Pacific salmon.

Washington↗

Paleotectonic investigations of the Mississippian System in the United States

This professional paper is the fifth in a series of paleotectonic studies each covering a geologic system in the conterminous United States. Part I provides a region-by-region discussion of data concerning the Mississippian System and an explanation and documentation for the maps and sections contained in part III. Part II of the paper provides a summary of the Mississippian System, presents interregional interpretations permitted by this study, and includes sections on notable features of the system. The maps contained in the separate case as part III may be divided into two groups: (1) a sequence of factual or basic maps that shows, with a minimum of interpretation, the Mississippian System as it occurs today, and (2) interpretive maps that attempt a reasonable reconstruction of the original extent of the system, its tectonics, environment, and geography.

Professional Paper↗

Enumeration of viruses and prokaryotes in deep-sea sediments and cold seeps of the Gulf of Mexico

Little is known about the distribution and abundance of viruses in deep-sea cold-seep environments. Like hydrothermal vents, seeps support communities of macrofauna that are sustained by chemosynthetic bacteria. Sediments close to these communities are hypothesized to be more microbiologically active and therefore to host higher numbers of viruses than non-seep areas. Push cores were taken at five types of Gulf of Mexico habitats at water depths below 1000 m using a remotely operated vehicle (ROV). The habitats included non-seep reference sediment, brine seeps, a microbial mat, an urchin field, and a pogonophoran worm community. Samples were processed immediately for enumeration of viruses and prokaryotes without the addition of a preservative. Prokaryote counts were an order of magnitude lower in sediments directly in contact with macrofauna (urchins, pogonophorans) compared to all other samples (10 7 vs. 10 8 cells g -1 dry weight) and were highest in areas of elevated salinity (brine seeps). Viral-Like Particle (VLP) counts were lowest in the reference sediments and pogonophoran cores (10 8 VLP g -1 dry wt), higher in brine seeps (10 9 VLP g -1 dry wt), and highest in the microbial mats (10 10 VLP g -1 dry wt). Virus-prokaryote ratios (VPR) ranged from <5 in the reference sediment to >30 in the microbial mats and >60 in the urchin field. VLP counts and VPR were all significantly greater than those reported from sediments in the deep Mediterranean Sea and in most cases were higher than recent data from a cold-seep site near Japan. The high VPR suggest that greater microbial activity in or near cold-seep environments results in greater viral production and therefore higher numbers of viruses.

Gulf Of Mexico;Green Canyon;Atwater Valley;Alamino↗

A stable carbon isotope and biological marker study of Polish bituminous coals and carbonaceous shales

Biological marker and carbon isotopic compositions of coals and carbonaceous shales from the Upper Carboniferous strata of the Upper Silesian (USCB), Lower Silesian (LSCB), and Lublin (LCB) coal basins were determined to assess depositional conditions and sources of the organic matter. n-Alkane, sterane, and isoprenoid distribution, and carbon isotope ratios are consistent with an origin from higher plants. In some cases, pristane/phytane (Pr/Ph) ratios of carbonaceous shales (roof and floor shales) are < 1.0, while the associated coals have high ratios (??? 1.0). This suggests that reducing conditions prevailed during deposition of the shales, but a period of oxidizing conditions accompanied deposition of the coals. Steranes present in coal extracts are dominated by the 14??(H)17??(H)20R C29 stereoisomers, typical, but not conclusive, of higher plant origin. Carbonaceous shales exhibit a wider range of sterane composition, suggesting local, significant input of algal organic matter. Significant amounts of benzohopanes and gammacerane are present in some coals. Although benzohopanes are present at least in small amounts in samples from many different environments, they have been reported to occur most commonly in marine environments. The present study seems to provide the first example where benzohopanes have been reported in significant amounts in terrestrial organic matter. Gammacerane is abundant in rocks or sediments deposited in carbonate or highly saline marine environments. The finding of high gammacerane concentrations in the coals expands the depositional settings in which it has been observed and questions its utility as an independent indicator of hypersaline carbonate environments. Stable carbon isotope composition of coals, and type III kerogen in carbonaceous shales as well as correlation of stable carbon isotope composition of saturated and aromatic hydrocarbons in carbonaceous shales from both the USCB and the LSCB indicate terrigenous origin. Bitumens are always co-genetic with associated coals and kerogens. Isotopic data reveal that Sofer's genetic classification of oils is not applicable to organic matter in coals. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

Arctic stream processes--an annotated bibliography

This bibliography selectively summarizes investigations to date (1978) dealing with the physical processes of streams in the Arctic. The specialized annotations include aspects of stream processes described in subordinate parts of general papers on the arctic environment and therefore not evident in author-abstract bibliographies. Foreign contributions--Canadian, Scandinavian, and Russian--are summarized, in the case of Russian literature primarily by means of papers in translation journals. Until 1970 the role of streams in development of the arctic landscape was commonly considered subordinate to that of glacial and frost-related processes. This conclusion changed, however, with the findings of the many new studies begun in response to oil and gas discoveries in the late 1960's. The conclusions of these studies, made to provide both the engineering data for resource development and the information to assess the impacts of that development, were in general agreement that stream processes throughout most of the Arctic were significantly more important than previously had been thought.

Water Supply Paper↗

Integration of coral reef ecosystem process studies and remote sensing

Worldwide, local-scale anthropogenic stress combined with global climate change is driving shifts in the state of reef benthic communities from coral-rich to micro- or macroalgal-dominated (Knowlton, 1992; Done, 1999). Such phase shifts in reef benthic communities may be either abrupt or gradual, and case studies from diverse ocean basins demonstrate that recovery, while uncertain (Hughes, 1994), typically involves progression through successional stages (Done, 1992). These transitions in benthic community structure involve changes in community metabolism, and accordingly, the holistic evaluation of associated biogeochemical variables is of great intrinsic value (Done, 1992). Effective reef management requires advance prediction of coral reef alteration in the face of anthropogenic stress and change in the global environment (Hatcher, 1997a). In practice, this goal requires techniques that can rapidly discern, at an early stage, sublethal effects that may cause long-term increases in mortality (brown, 1988; Grigg and Dollar, 1990). Such methods would improve our understanding of the differences in the population, community, and ecosystem structure, as well as function, between pristine and degraded reefs. This knowledge base could then support scientifically based management strategies (Done, 1992). Brown (1988) noted the general lack of rigor in the assessment of stress on coral reefs and suggested that more quantitative approaches than currently exist are needed to allow objective understanding of coral reef dynamics. Sensitive techniques for the timely appraisal of pollution effects or generalized endemic stress in coral reefs are sorely lacking (Grigg and Dollar, 1990; Wilkinsin, 1992). Moreover, monitoring methods based on population inventories, sclerochronology, or reproductive biology tend to myopic and may give inconsistent results. Ideally, an improved means of evaluating reef stress would discriminate mortality due to natural causes from morality to anthropogenic causes (Brown, 1988). Models of coral reef ecosystems, parameterized by process measurements and scaled in time-space using remote sensing, have the potential to address pressing research questions that are central to devising valid management strategies (Grigg el al., 1984; Hatcher, 1997b). To attain this goal, ecosystem-level models that integrate studies of physical and chemical forcing with observed biological and geological responses are required. This interdisciplinary approach to understanding reef biogeochemical dynamics can allow investigations that integrate the scales of time and space (Hatcher, 1997a), thereby enabling prediction of coral reef change (Andréfouët and Payri, 2001). In turn, prediction of holistic ecosystem function within various environmental focusing scenarios has substantial promise in mitigating future disturbance. Indeed, management of coral reefs at the ecosystem level has been suggested as the only meaningful approach to preserving coral reefs (Bohnsack and Ault, 1996; Christensen et al., 1996).

Florida↗

Historical record of Landsat global coverage

The long-term, 34+ year record of global Landsat remote sensing data is a critical resource to study the Earth system and human impacts on this system. The National Satellite Land Remote Sensing Data Archive (NSLRSDA) is charged by public law to: “maintain a permanent, comprehensive Government archive of global Landsat and other land remote sensing data for long-term monitoring and study of the changing global environment” (U.S. Congress, 1992). The advisory committee for NSLRSDA requested a detailed analysis of observation coverage within the U.S. Landsat holdings, as well as that acquired and held by International Cooperator (IC) stations. Our analyses, to date, have found gaps of varying magnitude in U.S. holdings of Landsat global coverage data, which appear to reflect technical or administrative variations in mission operations. In many cases it may be possible to partially fill these gaps in U.S. holdings through observations that were acquired and are now being held at International Cooperator stations.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗

Guidelines for the use of automatic samplers in collecting surface-water quality and sediment data

The importance of fluvial systems in the transport of sediment, dissolved and suspended contaminants, nutrients, and bacteria through the environment is well established. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) identifies sediment as the single most widespread water contaminant affecting the beneficial uses of the Nation’s rivers and streams. The evaluation of water-quality as it relates to agriculture, urbanization, highway and residential construction, mining, industrial and human wastes, and other activities requires an extensive data and sample-collection effort. This is especially the case when studying urbanized river basins, where during hydrologic events, concentration of suspended sediment and contaminants can vary rapidly and over large ranges. Where synoptic studies of watersheds are called for, sampling may be needed at many sites throughout the basin; a complicated and difficult task in some settings. Automatic pumping samplers (autosamplers) are one method for conducting intensive time-varying sampling throughout watersheds. This report presents guidelines for the use of autosamplers for collecting surface-water samples by the U.S. Geological Survey. An autosampler is an automatic, pump-based sampler that collects a prescribed volume of water from streams, lakes, reservoirs, storm drains, or other bodies of water after receiving a command from an internal or external control unit. It deposits this sample into a specified container for later analysis of physical, chemical, or biological constituents. This report provides a general background on types of autosamplers and how they work; guidance for designing, selecting, installing, servicing, and calibrating autosamplers; guidance on standardized operating procedures, and guidance on quality-assurance and quality-control efforts when using an autosampler.

Techniques and Methods↗

Value of information and decision pathways: Concepts and case studies

Information used in decision making arises from the structuring of observations and data. The collection, dissemination, and use of information has monetary and non-monetary costs (e.g., competition for attention) and necessitates trade-offs. Understanding the benefits of having information (i.e., the value of information, VOI), including resulting societal outcomes, is useful to information producers/funders and decision makers. Using theory, use cases, and hypotheticals, we describe how information (e.g., geospatial information) is valued and incorporated in decisions and actions related to managing natural resources, environments, and the impacts of natural and anthropogenic hazards. We discuss the nature of information and how it relates to models (conceptual, mental, scientific), beliefs, knowledge, and economic analyses. VOI approaches and behavioral factors that potentially affect information use and value are summarized. Framing of information and VOI through data to decision pathways (DDPs) at first simplifies understanding, then illustrates the benefits of information, and the human and societal challenges encountered in valuing and using it. We present approaches to overcome these challenges. Our transdisciplinary analysis concludes with a summary of critical issues affecting DDPs and VOI, and suggestions for improving both economic analyses and the actionability and use of information.

Frontiers in Environmental Science (Environmental ↗

The added value of time-variable microgravimetry to the understanding of how volcanoes work

During the past few decades, time-variable volcano gravimetry has shown great potential for imaging subsurface processes at active volcanoes (including some processes that might otherwise remain “hidden”), especially when combined with other methods (e.g., ground deformation, seismicity, and gas emissions). By supplying information on changes in the distribution of bulk mass over time, gravimetry can provide information regarding processes such as magma accumulation in void space, gas segregation at shallow depths, and mechanisms driving volcanic uplift and subsidence. Despite its potential, time-variable volcano gravimetry is an underexploited method, not widely adopted by volcano researchers or observatories. The cost of instrumentation and the difficulty in using it under harsh environmental conditions is a significant impediment to the exploitation of gravimetry at many volcanoes. In addition, retrieving useful information from gravity changes in noisy volcanic environments is a major challenge. While these difficulties are not trivial, neither are they insurmountable; indeed, creative efforts in a variety of volcanic settings highlight the value of time-variable gravimetry for understanding hazards as well as revealing fundamental insights into how volcanoes work. Building on previous work, we provide a comprehensive review of time-variable volcano gravimetry, including discussions of instrumentation, modeling and analysis techniques, and case studies that emphasize what can be learned from campaign, continuous, and hybrid gravity observations. We are hopeful that this exploration of time-variable volcano gravimetry will excite more scientists about the potential of the method, spurring further application, development, and innovation.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

Response of juvenile Chinook Salmon to an experimental reservoir operation to facilitate downstream migration

Objectives High-head dams and storage reservoirs impact ecological processes, impeding recovery efforts of Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. in the western United States. These projects can delay migration, increase risks of predation and disease, and induce mortality for juvenile Pacific salmon during downstream passage. To mitigate these negative effects, large-scale changes to dam operations have been proposed as interim measures or alternatives to engineered fish passage solutions. A novel deep drawdown operation of the Lookout Point Project (two dams and reservoirs) in Oregon serves as a case study for learning from a large-scale management experiment. Beginning in July 2024, Lookout Point Reservoir was slowly lowered to attain minimal levels from mid-November to mid-December with the intent of expediting downstream passage through the project for juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha . We evaluated the impacts of the months-long operation on two life histories of juvenile Chinook Salmon with different rearing environments and growth rates. Methods Acoustic telemetry was used to monitor juvenile Chinook Salmon in the Lookout Point Project. Environmental data, including water temperature and hydrological conditions, were collected. We fitted a time-integrated migration survival model to these data to estimate the effects of management-influenced covariates and fish length on apparent survival and residence time in each reach of the Lookout Point Project. Results Larger fish had higher survival than smaller fish in each reach of the Lookout Point Project. Apparent survival through each dam of the Lookout Point Project was highest and forebay residence times lowest during the latter part of the drawdown (late November). However, early periods of the drawdown (September) were associated with a transition from a thermally stratified reservoir to a warm isothermal reservoir that negatively impacted reservoir survival. Conclusions The deep drawdown of the Lookout Point Project achieved the management intent to improve downstream passage for juvenile Chinook Salmon at the lowest reservoir elevations but also caused unintended changes in the reservoir rearing environment prior to full drawdown. Further research could resolve remaining uncertainties regarding the overall effectiveness of drawdown operations with respect to the population dynamics of different juvenile life history strategies. Understanding these factors would help optimize future management actions aimed at Pacific salmon recovery above the Lookout Point Project.

Oregon↗

Fish egg injection as an alternative exposure route for early life stage toxicity studies: Description of two unique methods: Chapter 4

In the environment, lipophilic contaminants such as halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons (HAHs, e.g., polychlorinated biphenyls, PCBs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs, e.g., benzo[a]pyrene) readily bioaccumulate in fish, and the bioaccumulation of these lipophilic chemicals by adult fish may have significant consequences on the development and survival of their offspring. Halogenated and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons translocate from adult female body stores into eggs during oocyte maturation, and early life stages of fish are often more sensitive than adults to the toxicity of these chemicals. Thus, the presence of persistent, bioaccumulative contaminants in the environment may pose a risk to fish early life stage survival and ultimately reduce recruitment into the adult population. Typically, standard early life stage toxicity studies exposed embryos, larvae, and juveniles to graded concentrations of waterborne toxicants, and dose-response relationships are based on the concentrations of chemicals in the water. However, use of waterborne exposure to assess the toxicity of persistent, bioaccumulative contaminants, such as HAHs and PAHs, has two significant drawbacks. First, uptake of hydrophobic chemicals, such as HAHs and PAHs, into the developing embryo from water is not a significant route of exposure in the environment since concentrations of these chemicals freely dissolved in water are extremely low. Rather, maternal deposition into developing oocytes is the most significant source of these chemicals to the embryo. Second, the dose received by the target tissue, in this case the developing embryo, is the most accurate predictor of the toxic response, and since extrapolation from water concentrations of the chemical to egg concentrations is required, the exact dose received by the embryo can only be estimated, often with large uncertainty. Due to these drawbacks, it is important to develop an alternative exposure method that will directly expose the developing embryo without the need to chronically expose adult fish with subsequent natural deposition of hydrophobic chemicals into the oocytes. Fish egg injection provides this exposure route. Embryos are exposed directly after fertilization with known doses of contaminants, the dose is delivered prior to critical developmental events, and extrapolation of the dose received by the embryo is not needed. We have developed two unique fish egg injection methods as alternative routes of exposure for fish early life stage toxicity studies of lipophilic environmental contaminants. With either method, individual fish eggs are injected with a known dose of chemical. The first approach, a microinjection method, originally developed to assess the developmental toxicity of HAH congeners to early life stages of salmonids, utilizes micro-syringes, 30- gauge stainless steel injection needles, and micro- to nanoliter injection volume. The second approach, a nano-injection method, utilizes glass capillary micropipettes with 2 to 10 µm tips as injection needles, and nano- to picoliter injection volume, allowing injection of nearly any size of fish egg. Both of these egg injection methods allow an investigator to assess the toxicity of lipophilic environmental contaminants to early life stages of fish in a manner that realistically reflects environmental exposure and allows accurate quantitation of the dose to the developing embryo. These injection techniques, however, are not limited to use with only lipophilic chemicals. Since the developmental toxicity of many environmental contaminants ultimately depends on the dose received by the embryo, these egg injection methods could serve as a realistic exposure route in many fish early life stage toxicity studies.

Book chapter↗

Applied aspects of locomotion and biomechanics

Locomotion is the act and process of moving from place to place, which is fundamental to the life history of all mobile organisms. While the field of biomechanics encompasses the study of the physical constraints of what animals are capable of, ecological contexts require an integrated view that includes ecology and behavior. This chapter provides an overview of some of the areas where locomotion and biomechanics of fish movement interface with the rapidly evolving changes that humans impose on aquatic environments. These changes include fundamental alterations to the environment such as altered flows, fragmentation of riverine habitats, and invasive species, but also direct interactions that occur with capture fisheries. We explore each of these areas, considering both challenges and opportunities informed by the study of locomotion and biomechanics, emphasizing how this field can contribute to conservation of fishes in the Anthropocene. We then turn to technology, where important advances are aiding in our understanding of fish movement. In some cases those advances have themselves led to novel technologies, where biomimetic robots and related devices offer novel opportunities, both for conservation and for other pursuits.

Book chapter↗

Turbidite systems: State of the art and future directions

The study of turbidite systems covering a wide range of physical scales has led to confus ion regarding the use of certain key terms and hence a breakdown in communication between workers involved in turbidite research. There are three fundamentally different scales and types of observations derived from the study of outcrop data (ancient systems), high-resolution seismic reflection and side scan sonar data (modern systems), and multichannel seismic reflection data (modern and older buried systems). Despite the variability of scale the same terms are used to describe features that may have little in common. Consequently, turbidite system terminology has become imprecise and even misleading in some cases, thus providing impediments to developing useful predictive models for processes, depositional environments, and lateral and vertical distribution of sand bodies within turbidite systems. To address this concern, we review the principal elements critical to deepwater systems: slump scars, submarine canyons, channels, channel fill deposits, overbank deposits, and lobes and discuss some of their recognition criteria with each different type of data base. Local and regional tectonic setting, relative sea level variations, and bottom current activity are probably the main factors that control size, external geometry, internal stratal configuration, and facies characteristics of both modern and ancient turbidite systems. These factors ultimately control the timing and bounding characteristics between stages of growth of deepwater systems. If comparison of elements from different turbidite deposits using various data types is carried out at similar physical and temporal scales, predictive models eventually may be improved.

Reviews of Geophysics↗

Comparison of physical to numerical mixing with different tracer advection schemes in estuarine environments

The numerical simulation of estuarine dynamics requires accurate prediction for the transport of tracers such as temperature and salinity. During the simulation of these processes, all numerical models introduce two kinds of tracer mixing: 1) by parameterizing the tracer eddy diffusivity through turbulence models leading to a source of physical mixing and 2) discretization of the tracer advection term that leads to numerical mixing. Both physical and numerical mixing vary with the choice of horizontal advection schemes, grid resolution, and time step. By simulating four idealized cases, this study compares physical and numerical mixing for three different tracer advection schemes. Idealized domains involving only physical and numerical mixing are used to verify the implementation of mixing terms by equating them to total tracer variance. Among the three horizontal advection schemes, the scheme that causes the least numerical mixing while maintaining a sharp front also results in larger physical mixing. Instantaneous spatial comparison of mixing components shows that physical mixing is dominant in regions of large vertical gradients while numerical mixing dominates at sharp fronts that contain large horizontal tracer gradients. In the case of estuaries, numerical mixing may dominate locally over physical mixing; however, the amount of volume integrated numerical mixing through the domain compared to integrated physical mixing remains relatively small for this particular modeling system.

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering↗

Water quality and algal community dynamics of three deepwater lakes in Minnesota utilizing CE-QUAL-W2 models

Water quality, habitat, and fish in Minnesota lakes will potentially be facing substantial levels of stress in the coming decades primarily because of two stressors: (1) land-use change (urban and agricultural) and (2) climate change. Several regional and statewide lake modeling studies have identified the potential linkages between land-use and climate change on reductions in the volume of suitable lake habitat for coldwater fish populations. In recent years, water-resource scientists have been making the case for focused assessments and monitoring of sentinel systems to address how these stress agents change lakes over the long term. Currently in Minnesota, a large-scale effort called “Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment” is underway that includes a focus on monitoring basic watershed, water quality, habitat, and fish indicators of 24 Minnesota sentinel lakes across a gradient of ecoregions, depths, and nutrient levels. As part of this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, developed predictive water quality models to assess water quality and habitat dynamics of three select deepwater lakes in Minnesota. The three lakes (Lake Carlos in Douglas County, Elk Lake in Clearwater County, and Trout Lake in Cook County) were assessed under recent (2010–11) meteorological conditions. The three selected lakes contain deep, coldwater habitats that remain viable during the summer months for coldwater fish species. Hydrodynamics and water-quality characteristics for each of the three lakes were simulated using the CE-QUAL-W2 model, which is a carbon-based, laterally averaged, two-dimensional water-quality model. The CE-QUAL-W2 models address the interaction between nutrient cycling, primary production, and trophic dynamics to predict responses in the distribution of temperature and oxygen in lakes. The CE-QUAL-W2 models for all three lakes successfully predicted water temperature, on the basis of the two metrics of absolute mean error and root mean square error, using measured inputs of water temperature and nutrients. One of the main calibration tools for CE-QUAL-W2 model development was the vertical profile temperature data, available for all three lakes. For all three lakes, the absolute mean error and root mean square error were less than 1.0 degree Celsius and 1.2 degrees Celsius, respectively, for the different depth ranges used for vertical profile comparisons. In Lake Carlos, simulated water temperatures compared better to measured water temperatures in the epilimnion than in the hypolimnion. The reverse was true for the other two lakes, Elk Lake and Trout Lake, where the simulated results were slightly better for the hypolimnion than the epilimnion. The model also was used to approximate the location of the thermocline throughout the simulation periods, approximately April to November, in all three lake models. Deviations between the simulated and measured water temperatures in the vertical lake profile commonly were because of an offset in the timing of thermocline shifts rather than the simulated results missing thermocline shifts altogether.

Minnesota↗