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USGS2020

High-throughput sequencing reveals distinct regional genetic structure among remaining populations of an endangered salt marsh plant in California

Conservation of rare species requires careful consideration to both preserve locally adapted traits and maintain genetic diversity, as species’ ranges fluctuate in response to a changing climate and habitat loss. Salt marsh systems in California have been highly modified and many salt marsh obligate species have undergone range reductions and habitat loss with concomitant losses of genetic diversity and connectivity. Remaining salt marshes are threatened by rising sea levels, and so these habitats will likely require active restoration and re-establishment efforts. This study aims to provide a reference point for the current status of genetic diversity and range-wide population structure of a federally and state listed endangered plant, Salt Marsh Bird’s Beak (Chloropyron maritimum subsp. maritimum) that can inform future preservation and restoration efforts. We used historical data and current monitoring information to locate and sample all known occurrences throughout the species range in Southern California, and three additional occurrences from Baja California, Mexico. We used flow cytometry and single nucleotide polymorphic markers (SNPs), generated by double-digest restriction-site associated DNA sequencing (ddRAD), to assess relative ploidy, and estimate genetic diversity and population structure across the region. Overall, we found four to five distinct genetic clusters that coincide with geographic regions. Genetic diversity was greatest in the southern part of the range including Baja California and San Diego. These findings can bolster management and restoration efforts by identifying potentially isolated occurrences and areas that are rich sources of allelic diversity, and by providing insight into the amount of genetic differentiation across the species range.

California↗

USGS2017

Genetic differentiation and inferred dynamics of a hybrid zone between Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) and California Spotted Owls (S. o. occidentalis) in northern California

Genetic differentiation among Spotted Owl ( Strix occidentalis ) subspecies has been established in prior studies. These investigations also provided evidence for introgression and hybridization among taxa but were limited by a lack of samples from geographic regions where subspecies came into close contact. We analyzed new sets of samples from Northern Spotted Owls (NSO: S. o. caurina ) and California Spotted Owls (CSO: S. o. occidentalis ) in northern California using mitochondrial DNA sequences (mtDNA) and 10 nuclear microsatellite loci to obtain a clearer depiction of genetic differentiation and hybridization in the region. Our analyses revealed that a NSO population close to the northern edge of the CSO range in northern California (the NSO Contact Zone population) is highly differentiated relative to other NSO populations throughout the remainder of their range. Phylogenetic analyses identified a unique lineage of mtDNA in the NSO Contact Zone, and Bayesian clustering analyses of the microsatellite data identified the Contact Zone as a third distinct population that is differentiated from CSO and NSO found in the remainder of the subspecies' range. Hybridization between NSO and CSO was readily detected in the NSO Contact Zone, with over 50% of individuals showing evidence of hybrid ancestry. Hybridization was also identified among 14% of CSO samples, which were dispersed across the subspecies' range in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. The asymmetry of hybridization suggested that the hybrid zone may be dynamic and moving. Although evidence of hybridization existed, we identified no F1 generation hybrid individuals. We instead found evidence for F2 or backcrossed individuals among our samples. The absence of F1 hybrids may indicate that (1) our 10 microsatellites were unable to distinguish hybrid types, (2) primary interactions between subspecies are occurring elsewhere on the landscape, or (3) dispersal between the subspecies' ranges is reduced relative to historical levels, potentially as a consequence of recent regional fires.

California↗

USGS2006

Catastrophe, recovery and range limitation in NE Pacific kelp forests: a large-scale perspective

The 1997–98 El Niño was one of the strongest on record and resulted in widespread losses of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera (Agardh) along the west coast of North America. Drawing on a rich history of studies that have shown abnormally large waves and warm nutrient-poor water associated with El Niños to negatively impact giant kelp populations at some locations in southern and Baja California, we examined (1) how these impacts scale up when considered across the species’ geographic range in the NE Pacific Ocean and (2) if these impacts are generalizable over broad spatial scales. Working at 56 sites in 14 study locations over a 3 yr period (1997 to 2000), we examined how giant kelp populations were impacted by and recovered following the 1997–98 El Niño over a ~1500 km span along the west coast of North America. Our results indicate that while nearly all giant kelp disappeared from the southern one-third of the species’ range along the coast of Baja California, Mexico, and heavy losses occurred throughout the central one-third of the species’ range in southern California, USA, only minor impacts were observed throughout the northern one-third of the species’ range in central California. Further, although highly variable among regions, these impacts were similar and generalizable among locations within each region. Our results also suggest that, as has been observed in local-scale studies, this large-scale variability in giant kelp mortality was driven by large-scale patterns in ocean temperature (nutrient concentration) and wave intensity. Recovery following El Niño, in contrast, was variable at multiple spatial scales and although not directly tested here, presumably influenced by numerous factors such as proximity to upwelling areas, competition with other algae, grazing, and propagule availability. Further, variability in the rates of recovery among locations resulted in a generally slow recovery of giant kelp throughout most of Baja California, and residual large-scale impacts of the El Niño were still evident 2 yr after the El Niño ended. As global climate change may lead to increases in the frequency and intensity of El Niños, our findings have broad implications for the ways in which ecosystems might be expected to respond to them and provide a measure by which their impacts to giant kelp ecosystems may be compared among events.

Pacific Ocean↗

USGS1985

[Book review] The birds of San Diego County

San Diego County, California is larger in area than 2 of the 50 states (combined), its geographic (and thus biological) diversity ranges from the seacoast across mountains of nearly 2,000 m elevation to extreme desert, it is the southwesternmost county of the contiguous U.S., and it is inhabited by dedicated birders whose observations have boosted the county list to more than 450 species. "The Birds of San Diego County" provides detailed information on the geographic, ecological, and temporal distribution and abundance of each of the 449 species of native birds reported in the county-for some, by subspecies. Maps of breeding distribution are presented for 129 of the 181 breeding species (of which 26 are considered to be extirpated or only occasional breeders). Ecological zones and terms of abundance are defined precisely, and the definitions are adhered to. Welcomely absent are long para- graphs of descriptive and generalized information.

The Auk↗

USGS2020

Mapping fire regime ecoregions in California

The fire regime is a central framing concept in wildfire science and ecology and describes how a range of wildfire characteristics vary geographically over time. Understanding and mapping fire regimes is important for guiding appropriate management and risk reduction strategies and for informing research on drivers of global change and altered fire patterns. Most efforts to spatially delineate fire regimes have been conducted by identifying natural groupings of fire parameters based on available historical fire data. This can result in classes with similar fire characteristics but wide differences in ecosystem types. We took a different approach and defined fire regime ecoregions for California to better align with ecosystem types, without using fire as part of the definition. We used an unsupervised classification algorithm to segregate the state into spatial clusters based on distinctive biophysical and anthropogenic attributes that drive fire regimes – and then used historical fire data to evaluate the ecoregions. The fire regime ecoregion map corresponded well with the major land cover types of the state and provided clear separation of historical patterns in fire frequency and size, with lower variability in fire severity. This methodology could be used for mapping fire regimes in other regions with limited historical fire data or forecasting future fire regimes based on expected changes in biophysical characteristics.

California↗

USGS2001

Mean and modal ϵ in the deaggregation of probabilistic ground motion

An important element of probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA) is the incorporation of ground-motion uncertainty from the earthquake sources. The standard normal variate ϵ measures the difference between any specified spectral-acceleration level, or SA 0 , and the estimated median spectral acceleration from each probabilistic source. In this article, mean and modal values of ϵ for a specified SA 0 are defined and computed from all sources considered in the USGS 1996 PSHA maps. Contour maps of ϵ are presented for the conterminous United States for 1-, 0.3-, and 0.2-sec SA 0 and for peak horizontal acceleration, PGA 0 corresponding to a 2% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 yr, or mean annual rate of exceedance, r , of 0.000404. Mean and modal ϵ exhibit a wide variation geographically for any specified PE. Modal ϵ for the 2% in 50 yr PE exceeds 2 near the most active western California faults, is less than –1 near some less active faults of the western United States (principally in the Basin and Range), and may be less than 0 in areal fault zones of the central and eastern United States (CEUS). This geographic variation is useful for comparing probabilistic ground motions with ground motions from scenario earthquakes on dominating faults, often used in seismic-resistant provisions of building codes. An interactive seismic-hazard deaggregation menu item has been added to the USGS probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis Web site, http://geohazards.cr.usgs.gov/eq/ , allowing visitors to compute mean and modal distance, magnitude, and ϵ corresponding to ground motions having mean return times from 250 to 5000 yr for any site in the United States.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2024

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in drinking water in Southeast Los Angeles: Industrial legacy and environmental justice

Per - and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are persistent chemicals of increasing concern to human health. PFAS contamination in water systems has been linked to a variety of sources including hydrocarbon fire suppression activities, industrial and military land uses, agricultural applications of biosolids, and consumer products. To assess PFAS in California tap water, we collected 60 water samples from inside homes in four different geographic regions, both urban and rural. We selected mostly small water systems with known history of industrial chemical or pesticide contamination and that served socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. Thirty percent of the tap water samples (18) had a detection of at least one of the 32 targeted PFAS and most detections (89 %) occurred in heavily industrialized Southeast Los Angeles (SELA). The residents of SELA are predominately Latino and low-income. Concentrations of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) ranged from 6.8 to 13.6 ng/L and 9.4–17.8 ng/L, respectively in SELA and were higher than State (PFOA: 0.007 ng/L; PFOS: 1.0 ng/L) and national health-based goals (zero). To look for geographic patterns, we mapped potential sources of PFAS contamination, such as chrome plating facilities, airports, landfills, and refineries, located near the SELA water systems; consistent with the multiple potential sources in the area, no clear spatial associations were observed. The results indicate the importance of systematic testing of PFAS in tap water, continued development of PFAS regulatory standards and advisories for a greater number of compounds, improved drinking-water treatments to mitigate potential health threats to communities, especially in socioeconomically disadvantaged and industrialized areas.

California↗

USGS2000

Genetic diversity and epidemiology of infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus in Alaska

Forty-two infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) isolates from Alaska were analyzed using the ribonuclease protection assay (RPA) and nucleotide sequencing. RPA analyses, utilizing 4 probes, N5, N3 (N gene), GF (G gene), and NV (NV gene), determined that the haplotypes of all 3 genes demonstrated a consistent spatial pattern. Virus isolates belonging to the most common haplotype groups were distributed throughout Alaska, whereas isolates in small haplotype groups were obtained from only 1 site (hatchery, lake, etc.). The temporal pattern of the GF haplotypes suggested a 'genetic acclimation' of the G gene, possibly due to positive selection on the glycoprotein. A pairwise comparison of the sequence data determined that the maximum nucleotide diversity of the isolates was 2.75% (10 mismatches) for the NV gene, and 1.99% (6 mismatches) for a 301 base pair region of the G gene, indicating that the genetic diversity of IHNV within Alaska is notably lower than in the more southern portions of the IHNV North American range. Phylogenetic analysis of representative Alaskan sequences and sequences of 12 previously characterized IHNV strains from Washington, Oregon, Idaho, California (USA) and British Columbia (Canada) distinguished the isolates into clusters that correlated with geographic origin and indicated that the Alaskan and British Columbia isolates may have a common viral ancestral lineage. Comparisons of multiple isolates from the same site provided epidemiological insights into viral transmission patterns and indicated that viral evolution, viral introduction, and genetic stasis were the mechanisms involved with IHN virus population dynamics in Alaska. The examples of genetic stasis and the overall low sequence heterogeneity of the Alaskan isolates suggested that they are evolutionarily constrained. This study establishes a baseline of genetic fingerprint patterns and sequence groups representing the genetic diversity of Alaskan IHNV isolates. This information could be used to determine the source of an IHN outbreak and to facilitate decisions in fisheries management of Alaskan salmonid stocks.

Diseases of Aquatic Organisms↗

USGS2021

Multiple-scale relationships between vegetation, the wildland–urban interface, and structure loss to wildfire in California

Recent increases in destructive wildfires are driving a need for empirical research documenting factors that contribute to structure loss. Existing studies show that fire risk is complex and varies geographically, and the role of vegetation has been especially difficult to quantify. Here, we evaluated the relative importance of vegetation cover at local (measured through the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and landscape (as measured through the Wildland–Urban Interface) scales in explaining structure loss from 2013 to 2018 in California—statewide and divided across three regions. Generally, the pattern of housing relative to vegetation better explained structure loss than local-scale vegetation amount, but the results varied regionally. This is likely because exposure to fire is a necessary first condition for structure survival, and sensitivity is only relevant once the fire reaches there. The relative importance of other factors such as long-term climatic variability, distance to powerlines, and elevation also varied among regions. These suggest that effective fire risk reduction strategies may need to account for multiple factors at multiple scales. The geographical variability in results also reinforces the notion that “one size does not fit all”. Local-scale empirical research on specific vegetation characteristics relative to structure loss is needed to inform the most effective customized plan.

California↗

USGS2023

Prioritizing the risk and management of introduced species in a landscape with high indigenous biodiversity

Risk analysis protocols for prioritizing the management of non-native species are numerous, yet few incorporate risk and management in the same analysis or accommodate a broad diversity of taxa outside of a specific geographic area. We adapted a protocol that accounts for these factors to address non-native animal species in the Southern California/Northern Baja California Coast Ecoregion near the international border in San Diego County, an area with high indigenous biodiversity and high numbers of species of conservation concern. This stepwise, semi-quantitative protocol is applicable to any animal group in any predefined geographic area, relies on consensus-building among taxonomic experts, and has been vetted through previous use and in peer-reviewed literature. Our results show that the final prioritization was driven mainly by management feasibility, with top-ranked species having multitrophic effects that favor other non-native invaders over native residents. Conditions within the assessment area required some modification to the protocol as it was originally designed, namely a shift in emphasis from eradication to control, given that eradication is implausible for most non-native species in the assessment area. We call attention to taxon-specific issues that surfaced during the analysis, identify areas for improvement in this first-ever risk assessment for invasive animal species in the Natural Communities Conservation Plan/Habitat Conservation Plan (NCCP/HCP) reserve system of San Diego County, and provide suggestions for further refinement of the protocol. This study builds on the effort to standardize risk analysis for invasive species globally, given that many of the same invaders present threats to indigenous biodiversity worldwide.

California↗

USGS2025

A comparison of deep-sea coral and sponge species distribution models and the impact of ocean currents in the Southern California Bight

Deep-sea corals and sponges (DSCS) are signature taxa of deep-water habitats, but ecological mechanisms that drive their geographic distributions can be difficult to uncover due to the challenges of surveying deep-water ecosystems and limited oceanographic data. A comparison of species distribution models was made for three DSCS ( Antipathes dendochristos, Plumarella longispina, and an unidentified sponge morphotype known as Porifera #2), two of which are associated with young-of-the-year and adult rockfish taxa ( Sebastes spp.). Models were built using generalized additive models (GAMs) that accounted for spatial autocorrelation. These models were compared to Maxent models, a commonly used method. All models utilized bathymetrically derived variables (including depth, slope, and Bathymetric Position Index) and output from a coupled physical-biogeochemical ocean model (including current direction and magnitude, food abundance, and dissolved oxygen). Direction of benthic ocean currents played an important role in predictions, pointing to large-scale ecological processes that may determine presence of DSCS. GAMs outperformed Maxent models and predicted more ecologically interpretable patterns. Additionally we quantified the predicted amount of suitable habitat that is currently located within some protected areas of the Southern California Bight and show that many hot spots occur outside protected areas. Given the importance of DSCS for multiple demersal fish species of commercial or conservation concerns, this research provides valuable information that natural resource managers can use as a tool in the Southern California Bight.

California↗

USGS2009

Compositions of modern dust and surface sediments in the Desert Southwest, United States

Modern dusts across southwestern United States deserts are compositionally similar to dust-rich Av soil horizons (depths of 0-0.5 cm and 1-4 cm at 35 sites) for common crustal elements but distinctly different for some trace elements. Chemical compositions and magnetic properties of the soil samples are similar among sites relative to dust sources, geographic areas, and lithologic substrates. Exceptions are Li, U, and W, enriched in Owens Valley, California, and Mg and Sr, enriched in soils formed on calcareous fan gravel in southeast Nevada. The Av horizons are dominated by dust and reflect limited mixing with substrate sediments. Modern dust samples are also similar across the region, except that Owens Valley dusts are higher in Mg, Ba, and Li and dusts both there and at sites to the north on volcanic substrates are higher in Sb and W. Thus, dust and Av horizons consist of contributions from many different sources that are well mixed before deposition. Modern dusts contain significantly greater amounts of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Sb than do Av horizons, which record dust additions over hundreds to thousands of years. These results suggest that modern dust compositions are influenced by anthropogenic sources and emissions from Owens (dry) Lake after its artificial desiccation in 1926. Both modern dusts and Av horizons are enriched in As, Ba, Cu, Li, Sb, Th, U, and W relative to average crustal composition, which we interpret to indicate that the geologic sources of dust in the southwestern United States are geochemically distinctive.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS1986

Southern California alluvial basins regional aquifer-systems analysis: A bibliography

A bibliography for the Southern California Alluvial Basins Regional Aquifer-Systems Analysis includes references for about 3,500 publications related to the geohydrology of the 75,000 sq-mi region, which encompasses all of southern California except the Central Valley, the Channel Islands and the Pacific Ocean floor off southern California, and parts of adjacent states and Mexico. The report indexes the publications in six geographic categories and induces a list of sources of publications. Because of the large number of references in the bibliography, a system was developed for computer storage and retrieval. References can be retrieved by geographic location, author, or geohydrologic discipline and subject. The computer system allows for updating and addition of references.

California↗

USGS2014

ARkStorm@Tahoe: Stakeholder perspectives on vulnerabilities and preparedness for an extreme storm event in the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno, and Carson City region

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are strongly linked to extreme winter precipitation events in the Western U.S., accounting for 80 percent of extreme floods in the Sierra Nevada and surrounding lowlands. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ARkStorm extreme storm scenario for California to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to allow stakeholders to better explore and mitigate potential impacts. To explore impacts on natural resources and communities in montane and adjacent environments, we downscaled the scenario to the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno and Carson City region of northern Nevada and California. This ArkStorm@Tahoe scenario was presented at six stakeholder meetings, each with a different geographic and subject matter focus. Discussions were facilitated by the ARkStorm@Tahoe team to identify social and ecological vulnerabilities to extreme winter storms, science and information needs, and proactive measures that might minimize impacts from this type of event. Information collected in these meetings was used to develop a tabletop emergency response exercise and set of recommendations for increasing resilience to extreme winter storm events in both Tahoe and the downstream communities of Northern Nevada. Over 300 individuals participated in ARkStorm@Tahoe stakeholder meetings and the emergency response exercise, including representatives from emergency response, natural resource and ecosystem management, health and human services, public utilities, and businesses. Interruption of transportation, communications, and lack of power and backup fuel supplies were identified as the most likely and primary points of failure across multiple sectors and geographies, as these interruptions have cascading effects on natural and human systems by impeding emergency response efforts. Other key issues that arose in discussions included contamination risks to water supplies and aquatic ecosystems, especially in the Tahoe Basin and Pyramid Lake, interagency coordination, credentialing, flood management, and coordination of health and human services during such an event. Mitigation options were identified for each of the key issues. Several science needs were identified, particularly the need for improved flood inundation maps. Finally, key lessons learned were identified and may help to increase preparedness, response and recovery from extreme storms in the future.

Report↗

USGS2008

Using logistic regression to predict a probability of debris flows in areas burned by wildfires, southern California, 2003-2006

Logistic regression was used to develop statistical models that can be used to predict the probability of debris flows in areas recently burned by wildfires by using data from 14 wildfires that burned in southern California during 2003-2006. Twenty-eight independent variables describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties of 306 drainage basins located within those burned areas were evaluated. The models were developed as follows: (1) Basins that did and did not produce debris flows soon after the 2003 to 2006 fires were delineated from data in the National Elevation Dataset using a geographic information system; (2) Data describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were compiled for each basin. These data were then input to a statistics software package for analysis using logistic regression; and (3) Relations between the occurrence or absence of debris flows and the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated, and five multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. All possible combinations of independent variables were evaluated to determine which combinations produced the most effective models, and the multivariate models that best predicted the occurrence of debris flows were identified. Percentage of high burn severity and 3-hour peak rainfall intensity were significant variables in all models. Soil organic matter content and soil clay content were significant variables in all models except Model 5. Soil slope was a significant variable in all models except Model 4. The most suitable model can be selected from these five models on the basis of the availability of independent variables in the particular area of interest and field checking of probability maps. The multivariate logistic regression models can be entered into a geographic information system, and maps showing the probability of debris flows can be constructed in recently burned areas of southern California. This study demonstrates that logistic regression is a valuable tool for developing models that predict the probability of debris flows occurring in recently burned landscapes.

California↗

USGS2001

Geographic variation and genetic structure in Spotted Owls

We examined genetic variation, population structure, and definition of conservation units in Spotted Owls ( Strix occidentalis ). Spotted Owls are mostly non-migratory, long-lived, socially monogamous birds that have decreased population viability due to their occupation of highly-fragmented late successional forests in western North America. To investigate potential effects of habitat fragmentation on population structure, we used random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) to examine genetic variation hierarchically among local breeding areas , subregional groups , regional groups , and subspecies via sampling of 21 breeding areas (276individuals) among the three subspecies of Spotted Owls. Data from 11 variable bands suggest a significant relationship between geographic distance among local breeding groups and genetic distance (Mantel r = 0.53, P < 0.02) although multi-dimensional scaling of three significant axes did not identify significant grouping at any hierarchical level. Similarly, neighbor-joining clustering of Manhattan distances indicated geographic structure at all levels and identified Mexican Spotted Owls as a distinct clade. RAPD analyses did not clearly differentiate Northern Spotted Owls from California Spotted Owls. Among Northern Spotted Owls, estimates of population differentiation (F ST ) ranged from 0.27 among breeding areas to 0.11 among regions. Concordantly, within-group agreement values estimated via multi-response permutation procedures of Jaccard's distances ranged from0.22 among local sites to 0.11 among regions. Pairwise comparisons of F ST and geographic distance within regions suggested only the Klamath region was in equilibrium with respect to gene flow and genetic drift. Merging nuclear data with recent mitochondrial data provides support for designation of an Evolutionary Significant Unit for Mexican Spotted Owls and two overlapping Management Units for Northern and California Spotted Owls.

Conservation Genetics↗

USGS2018

Revised technical implementation plan for the ShakeAlert system—An earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), along with partner organizations, has developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) system called ShakeAlert for the highest risk areas of the United States: namely, California, Oregon, and Washington. The purpose of the system is to reduce the impact of earthquakes and save lives and property by providing alerts to institutional users and the public. Using networks of ground-motion sensors and sophisticated computer algorithms, ShakeAlert can detect an earthquake seconds after it begins, calculate its location and magnitude, and estimate the resulting intensity of shaking. Alerts can then be sent to people and systems that may experience damaging shaking, allowing them to take appropriate protective actions. Depending on the user’s distance from the earthquake, alerts may be delivered before, during, or after the arrival of strong shaking. ShakeAlert is built on the foundation of the sensor networks and data processing infrastructure of the USGS-led Advanced National Seismic System. However, these networks were not originally designed for EEW; old equipment needs to be updated and new stations must be added to construct EEW-capable networks. The ShakeAlert data-processing infrastructure includes redundant servers that are geographically distributed at monitoring centers in Seattle, Washington, as well as Menlo Park, Berkeley, and Pasadena in California. Three data-processing layers collect raw ground-motion data from field stations (data layer), analyze these data to estimate the area and intensity of the resulting shaking (production layer), and publish alert products as appropriate for end users (alert layer). The alert layer can support thousands of institutional users and alert redistributors, but the USGS does not have the mission, infrastructure, or expertise to perform public notifications and is therefore recruiting technology enablers from the private sector. Additionally, ShakeAlert will coordinate with both public and private partners to accomplish consistent and ongoing public communication, education, and outreach. The estimated cost of completing the ShakeAlert infrastructure and sensor networks is \$39.4 million and has an estimated annual operation and maintenance cost of \$28.6 million per year. Building a highly reliable data telemetry infrastructure would cost another \$20.5 million and operating this telemetry system would add \$49.8 million per year; however, these costs could be reduced if project partners provide bandwidth on existing systems.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2016

Detecting significant change in stream benthic macroinvertebrate communities in wilderness areas

A major challenge in the biological monitoring of stream ecosystems in protected wilderness areas is discerning whether temporal changes in community structure are significantly outside of a reference condition that represents natural or acceptable annual variation in population cycles. Otherwise sites could erroneously be classified as impaired. Long-term datasets are essential for understanding these trends, to ascertain whether any changes in community structure significantly beyond the reference condition are permanent shifts or with time move back to within previous limits. To this end, we searched for long-term (>8 years) quantitative data sets of macroinvertebrate communities in wadeable rivers collected by similar methods and time of year in protected wilderness areas with minimal anthropogenic disturbance. Four geographic areas with datasets that met these criteria in the USA were identified, namely: McLaughlin Nature Reserve in California (1 stream), Great Smoky Mountains National Park in Tennesse-North Carolina (14 streams), Wind River Wilderness Areas in Wyoming (3 streams) and Denali National Park and Preserve in Alaska (6 streams). Two statistical approaches were applied: Taxonomic Distinctness (TD) to describe changes in diversity over time and non-metric multidimensional scaling (MDS) to describe changes over time in community persistence (Jaccards Index) and community stability (Bray–Curtis Index). Control charts were used to determine if years in MDS plots were significantly outside a reference condition. For Hunting Creek, TD showed three years outside natural variation which could be attributed to severe hydrological events but years outside the natural-variation funnel at sites in other geographical areas were inconsistent and could not be explained by environmental variables. TD identified simulated severe pollutant events which caused the removal of entire invertebrate assemblages but not simulated water temperature shifts. Within a region, both MDS analyses typically identified similar years as exceeding reference condition variation, illustrating the utility of the approach for identifying wider spatial scale effects that influence more than one stream. MDS responded to both simulated water temperature stress and a pollutant event, and generally outlying years on MDS plots could be explained by environmental variables, particularly higher precipitation. Multivariate control charts successfully identified whether shifts in community structure identified by MDS were significant and whether the shift represented a press disturbance (long-term change) or a pulse disturbance. We consider a combination of TD and MDS with control charts to be a potentially powerful tool for determining years significantly outside of a reference condition variation.

Alaska, California, North Carolina, Tennesse, Wyom↗