USGS · tp107
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1982. Impact of xenobiotic chemicals on microbial ecosystems. https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/tp107
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This paper outlines the production of 270-meter grid-scale maps for 14 climate and derivative hydrologic variables for a region that encompasses the State of California and all the streams that flow into it. The paper describes the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a map-based, mechanistic model used to process the hydrological variables. Three historic and three future time periods of 30 years (1911–1940, 1941–1970, 1971–2000, 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) were developed that summarize 180 years of monthly historic and future climate values. These comprise a standardized set of fine-scale climate data that were shared with 14 research groups, including the U.S. National Park Service and several University of California groups as part of this project. We present three analyses done with the outputs from the Basin Characterization Model: trends in hydrologic variables over baseline, the most recent 30-year period; a calibration and validation effort that uses measured discharge values from 139 streamgages and compares those to Basin Characterization Model-derived projections of discharge for the same basins; and an assessment of the trends of specific hydrological variables that links historical trend to projected future change under four future climate projections. Overall, increases in potential evapotranspiration dominate other influences in future hydrologic cycles. Increased potential evapotranspiration drives decreasing runoff even under forecasts with increased precipitation, and drives increased climatic water deficit, which may lead to conversion of dominant vegetation types across large parts of the study region as well as have implications for rain-fed agriculture. The potential evapotranspiration is driven by air temperatures, and the Basin Characterization Model permits it to be integrated with a water balance model that can be derived for landscapes and summarized by watershed. These results show the utility of using a process-based model with modules representing different hydrological pathways that can be inter-linked.
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This study was based mainly on gill-net collections of yellow perch (Perca flavescens) made during July and August 1971-79, in southern Lake Michigan at Grand Haven, Saugatuck, South Haven, Benton Harbor, and New Buffalo, Michigan; Michigan City and Gary, Indiana; Waukegan, Illinois; and Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Abundance of yellow perch was above the 1971-79 average in 1971 and 1972, below average in 1979, and about average or in doubt in the other years. Abundance during 1976-79 was greatest at Saugatuck and decreased more or less progressively from Saugatuck southward and around the southern end of the lake. The geographical differences in abundance were attributable partly to differences in fishing mortality. Average lengths of fish caught were greatest at Saugatuck, and generally greater in Michigan waters than in other areas; they were greater for females than for males. Fish sampled ranged in age from I to IX, but 88% of the males and 81% of the females were of ages II-V. Older perch were generally more common in State of Michigan waters, particularly at Saugatuck, than elsewhere. Females grew faster than males after the second year of life. Average lengths of males and females at the end of 3 years were 197 and 214 mm, respectively, in Michigan waters and 186 and 195 mm in Indiana-Illinois (few perch were caught in Wisconsin). The relation of weight (W) to length (L) for combined sexes was W = 2.6761(10-6) x L3.2644. Perch in southeastern Lake Michigan spawned mainly from late May to mid June. Virtually all males were mature in their second year, but some females not until their fourth year. Perch 174 to 355 mm long contained 9, 300 to 136, 000 eggs. Approximate mortalities of males and females in Michigan waters were 52% and 48%, respectively; rates were higher in Indiana-Illinois.