USGS Science⌕ Search

USGS · sir20045195

A method for simulating transient ground-water recharge in deep water-table settings in central Florida by using a simple water-balance/transfer-function model

Abstract

A relatively simple method is needed that provides estimates of transient ground-water recharge in deep water-table settings that can be incorporated into other hydrologic models. Deep water-table settings are areas where the water table is below the reach of plant roots and virtually all water that is not lost to surface runoff, evaporation at land surface, or evapotranspiration in the root zone eventually becomes ground-water recharge. Areas in central Florida with a deep water table generally are high recharge areas; consequently, simulation of recharge in these areas is of particular interest to water-resource managers. Yet the complexities of meteorological variations and unsaturated flow processes make it difficult to estimate short-term recharge rates, thereby confounding calibration and predictive use of transient hydrologic models. A simple water-balance/transfer-function (WBTF) model was developed for simulating transient ground-water recharge in deep water-table settings. The WBTF model represents a one-dimensional column from the top of the vegetative canopy to the water table and consists of two components: (1) a water-balance module that simulates the water storage capacity of the vegetative canopy and root zone; and (2) a transfer-function module that simulates the traveltime of water as it percolates from the bottom of the root zone to the water table. Data requirements include two time series for the period of interest?precipitation (or precipitation minus surface runoff, if surface runoff is not negligible) and evapotranspiration?and values for five parameters that represent water storage capacity or soil-drainage characteristics. A limiting assumption of the WBTF model is that the percolation of water below the root zone is a linear process. That is, percolating water is assumed to have the same traveltime characteristics, experiencing the same delay and attenuation, as it moves through the unsaturated zone. This assumption is more accurate if the moisture content, and consequently the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity, below the root zone does not vary substantially with time. Results of the WBTF model were compared to those of the U.S. Geological Survey variably saturated flow model, VS2DT, and to field-based estimates of recharge to demonstrate the applicability of the WBTF model for a range of conditions relevant to deep water-table settings in central Florida. The WBTF model reproduced independently obtained estimates of recharge reasonably well for different soil types and water-table depths.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Andrew M. O’Reilly. 2004. A method for simulating transient ground-water recharge in deep water-table settings in central Florida by using a simple water-balance/transfer-function model. https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20045195

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

Evaluating the number of realizations (train-test splits) necessary to ensure robust estimates of conventional hydrothermal resource favorability using Monte Carlo cross-validation, the Great Basin, Western USA

Supervised machine learning approaches used to produce favorability maps in resource assessments commonly partition an input dataset into training and testing subsets (that is, through train-test splits). However, if a single split is not representative of underlying resource conditions, the resulting favorability map may be biased, particularly with sparse or heterogeneous datasets. To mitigate the potential for unrepresentative favorability maps, recent works by U.S. Geological Survey researchers have used Monte Carlo cross-validation to implement a large number ( n) of randomized train-test splits to produce n realizations. The realizations are then aggregated using cell-wise median predictions to produce the resulting final favorability map, recognizing that the median will remove extreme values that might have been estimated from a comparatively few unrepresentative realizations. Theoretically, the median prediction at every cell converges to a single estimate as n approaches infinity, and the question addressed herein is: How many realizations are necessary to get a robust estimate (that is, an estimate unaffected by additional realizations)? Therefore, convergence metrics are described to identify the number of train-test splits and realizations needed to make a reliable map using the data and supervised machine learning workflow for conventional hydrothermal resource assessment of the Great Basin of the Western United States. For this study, robust prediction occurs with n approximately equal to 600 realizations, and smaller ensembles (for example, n is approximately equal to 200 or even 100) may be suitable during preliminary or exploratory analyses. Although the resulting threshold numbers will vary depending on the data and modeling approach used, the convergence metrics proposed and applied herein are applicable to other supervised machine learning studies that use Monte Carlo cross-validation.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Groundwater budget for the Portneuf River Basin, southeastern Idaho

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Water Resources, developed the first groundwater budget for the upper Portneuf River Basin in southeastern Idaho, a tributary of the Snake River. A groundwater budget for the Portneuf River Basin supports water resource and administrative management decisions within the basin and for downstream users of the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer. The analysis quantifies inflows, outflows, and residuals for an aquifer system defined by the Idaho Department of Water Resources under three recent precipitation conditions: an average year (2016), a dry year (2021), and a wet year (2023). The budget was calculated for the basin and for two subbasins delineated by the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage Portneuf River at Topaz, Idaho (13073000): the above Topaz subbasin, which includes the Portneuf-Gem valley, and the below Topaz subbasin, which includes Marsh Valley. Aquifer inflows include mountain-front recharge; areal recharge; recharge from applied water, including recharge from irrigation, canal seepage, and effluent returns; groundwater flow into the basin; and reservoir seepage. Outflows include groundwater pumping for agricultural, municipal, and domestic uses; subsurface outflow through the Portneuf gap; and discharge to streams as base flow. Estimated annual inflows for the full basin ranged from 116,880 acre-feet in 2021 to 154,880 acre-feet in 2023, and outflows ranged from 132,190 acre-feet in 2016 to 158,490 acre-feet in 2023. Basinwide residuals, the change in storage plus uncertainty, were −2,410 acre-feet in 2016, −18,410 acre-feet in 2021, and −3,610 acre-feet in 2023, and each subbasin had a mixture of negative and positive residuals. These basinwide results, interpreted as change in storage plus water-budget uncertainty, indicate minor net losses that increase with dry conditions, consistent with well depth-to-water measurements indicating gradual multi-decadal declines. Patterns in subbasin residuals are driven by irrigation practices and surface-water management; for example, the above Topaz subbasin relies more on groundwater for irrigation, resulting in more negative residuals during dry years. In contrast, the below Topaz subbasin depends more on surface water, producing positive residuals during dry years because of irrigation losses and canal seepage. The analyses for both subbasins indicate decades-long groundwater declines, which agree with the overall negative residuals calculated. The largest sources of uncertainty include climate inputs (precipitation and evapotranspiration) and poorly constrained components such as groundwater inflow and tributary stream infiltration. These findings provide insight into how climatic variables and irrigation practices affect groundwater inflows and outflows within the Portneuf River Basin.

Idaho↗

World minerals outlook—Antimony, copper, graphite, niobium, potash, silicon, silver, and tungsten through 2030

Demand for mineral commodities continues to increase owing to rapid technological advancements and global economic growth. To support this increase in demand, information about current and near-term supplies of these mineral commodities is essential. Such data help evaluate the health and stability of global supply chains and protect against potential supply risks. Current production and production capacity data coupled with information regarding near-term expected changes (such as facility closures, planned expansions, or the completion of new mineral production projects) can provide insight into expected future market developments and expected available supply of mineral commodities. This report within the “World Minerals Outlook” series analyzes data for antimony, copper, natural graphite, niobium, potash, silicon metal, silver, and tungsten—eight mineral commodities listed in the 2025 List of Critical Minerals. World production data from 2019 through 2025, as well as estimated world capacity data from 2023 through 2025 were analyzed. Using these data, near-term (2026–2030) expected world capacities were estimated. For antimony, copper, niobium, silicon metal, silver, and tungsten, modest increases in production capacity of 4 to 10 percent were expected between 2025 and 2030, whereas capacities for natural graphite and potash were expected to increase by about 18 to 20 percent.

Scientific Investigations Report↗