Baseline studies of the feasibility and reliability of using animal behavior as a component in the prediction of earthquakes

Abstract

This project was established to determine if it were possible to advance the state of the art in earthquake prediction by learning more about claims that unusual animal behavior was an earthquake precursor. We used intensive post-earthquake interview surveys to gather objective reports both of instances of unusual animal behavior as an earthquake precursor and of instances in which animals behaved normally prior to a moderate or large earthquake. We prepared briefing volumes describing the cultural significance and interpretation of seismicity for cultures other than our own with which we were likely to have contact. This information helped us assess the impact of cultural expectations on our data set. These briefing volumes are one of the work products of our project and are included in this final report. Since our goal was to increase the ability to predict earthquakes, we avoided study of earthquakes with known foreshocks since in those cases the unusual animal behavior might have resulted simply from the foreshocks. Our data indicates that unusual animal behavior occurs a few hours to a few days before some, but not most, earthquakes that do not have known foreshocks. Our studies of earthquake folklore support the same conclusion (pp 121-144 of this report). Even when unusual animal behavior is a precursor to a particular earthquake, most individual animals behave normally. This creates a signal to noise ratio that will reduce the potential for direct use of unusual -animal behavior in earthquake prediction, but the analysis of some animals reactions might help to identify physical precursors to at least some earthquakes. Each phase of this research program has produced one or more completed work products. These products, which follow, compose our final report.