Forecasts of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) land use in the southern Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, 2040–65

Abstract

This report provides analysis to extend the 2040 forecasts of polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) land use for the southern Beaufort and Chukchi Sea populations presented in a recent publication (Rode and others, 2022) through the year 2065. To inform long-term polar bear management considerations, we provide point-estimate forecasts and 95-percent prediction intervals of the proportion of polar bear populations summering onshore for 21 days or more (≥) and their duration onshore every 5 years from 2040 to 2065. Because sea-ice projections based on earth system models show greater divergence with emission scenarios after 2040, we have provided forecasts for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, compared to the two emission scenarios used in Rode and others (2022). Our forecasting methods estimated that 61–97 percent of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea and 80–100 percent of polar bears in the Chukchi Sea populations may summer onshore for ≥21 days by 2065. Forecasts of mean duration onshore were 105–158 days for polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea and 111–178 days in the Chukchi Sea populations by 2065. Sea ice conditions projected to occur by 2065 could alter the current patterns of bear behavior from what has been observed over the past 30 years. As a result, these extended projections are associated with a higher degree of uncertainty than estimates through 2040, especially under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.