Protocols for geologic hazards response by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory to activity within the Yellowstone Volcanic System

Abstract

Executive Summary The Yellowstone Plateau hosts an active volcanic system, with subterranean magma (molten rock), boiling, pressurized waters, and a variety of active faults with significant earthquake hazards. Within the next few decades, light-to-moderate earthquakes and steam explosions are certain to occur. Volcanic eruptions are less likely, but are ultimately inevitable in this active volcanic region. This document summarizes protocols, policies, and tools to be used by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) during earthquakes, hydrothermal explosions, or any geologic activity that could lead to a volcanic eruption. Yellowstone National Park is home to Yellowstone Caldera, the largest volcanic system by volume in the United States, as well as a vigorous hydrothermal system composed of pressurized subsurface boiling waters and active faults capable of generating substantial seismicity. The region is subject to hazards spanning a wide range of intensities, magnitudes, likelihood of occurrence, and geographic extent of impact. These hazards include small and comparatively common hydrothermal explosions, occasional strong earthquakes, rare relatively non-explosive lava flows, and very rare large explosive volcanic eruptions. Addressing the broad style of potential hazards and the vast spatial and temporal scales over which these hazards can occur requires a general plan that outlines the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) response to a hazardous or potentially hazardous geological event or unrest (defined as departure from normal activity levels). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Science Center (VSC) Response Plan for Significant Volcanic Events in the United States (Moran and others, 2024) forms the basis of any response by YVO but will be modified to suit the specific characteristics of the observatory, which operates as a consortium of nine federal, state, and academic institutions. Decisions on declaring an event response or “activity with potential” (defined as unrest that is not immediately hazardous but that may evolve into a hazardous event), as well as any changes in Volcano Alert Level and Aviation Color Code or the release of formal Information Statements, will be made by the USGS via the YVO Scientist-in-Charge (SIC) in consultation with the leads of the YVO member agencies. The YVO response to hazardous or potentially hazardous geological activity in or around Yellowstone National Park will focus on the collection and analysis of data relevant to the location and style of the activity. Those data will be interpreted within the existing geological framework for the region to develop probabilistic assessments of potential outcomes. These interpretations and assessments will be used to support decision making by emergency management officials including Yellowstone National Park managers or within the National Incident Management System if an Incident Command System (ICS) is activated. YVO will also convene a communications group open to each member agency to ensure consistent internal and external messaging and that the public is kept informed of the unrest through formal notifications, social media posts, online content, traditional media interviews, and community meetings. This response plan will be evaluated and updated as needed by the observatory and will be available through the YVO and USGS public websites. Responses to volcanic eruptions and responses outside of the Yellowstone region, but within the YVO area of responsibility (including Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, and Colorado), will follow the U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Science Center Response Plan for Significant Volcanic Events in the United States (Moran and others, 2024).