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Low recapture rates preclude survival estimates of larval and juvenile sea lamprey in the Lake Erie basin

Nicholas S. Johnson·Aaron K. Jubar·Jessica M. Barber·Travis O. Brenden
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Abstract

Our goal was to estimate survival of non-native larval and juvenile sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) in the Lake Erie basin and compare estimates with those from Lakes Huron and Michigan. Accomplishing the goal would inform decisions about allocating limited control resources among the Laurentian Great Lakes to protect valued fish stocks. Between 2012 and 2018, coded-wire tagged (CWT) larvae and juveniles were released in three Lake Erie tributaries where they were unlikely to experience control program-induced mortality. Adult sea lamprey returning to tributaries to spawn were captured and scanned for CWTs, with the objectives being to determine (1) if survival differed between the Saint Clair River and other sea lamprey-producing tributaries of Lake Erie, and (2) if survival in Lake Erie differed from estimates in Lakes Huron and Michigan. No tagged larvae were recaptured as adults, preventing survival estimation. Recovery probability of tagged juveniles released in the Saint Clair River in the adult stage was about half that of other streams, but statistical comparisons were limited due to low recovery (Objective 1). Estimated lake-wide adult sea lamprey abundance was at record lows when tagged larvae were expected to return as adults. Simulations suggest that survival estimates of larval and juvenile sea lamprey in Lake Erie may be less than survival estimated in Lakes Huron and Michigan (Objective 2). Understanding survival rates of sea lamprey across the Great Lakes and individual streams could guide control effort allocation, although alternative methods for quantifying survival may be needed given the challenges encountered here.

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Journal of Great Lakes ResearchArticle
90° N90° S · 180° W ← longitude → 180° E
Source-reported bounding extent: 41.04669894924632° to 43.27424205258271° latitude; -83.96645862664006° to -78.5636344964881° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

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BibTeXRIS

Nicholas S. Johnson, Aaron K. Jubar, Jessica M. Barber, Travis O. Brenden. 2026-10-15. Low recapture rates preclude survival estimates of larval and juvenile sea lamprey in the Lake Erie basin. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2026.102968

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