Rapid building damage estimates from the M7.8 Turkey earthquake sequence via causality-informed Bayesian inference from satellite imagery

Abstract

On February 6, 2023, a major earthquake of 7.8 magnitude and its aftershocks caused widespread destruction in Turkey and Syria, causing more than 55,000 deaths, displacing 3 million people in Turkey and 2.9 million in Syria, and destroying or damaging at least 230,000 buildings. Our research presents detailed city-scale maps of landslides, liquefaction, and building damage from this earthquake, utilizing a novel variational causal Bayesian network. This network integrates InSAR-derived change detection with new empirical ground failure models and building footprints, enabling us to (1) rapidly estimate large-scale building damage, landslides, and liquefaction from remote sensing data, (2) jointly attribute building damage to landslides, liquefaction, and shaking, (3) improve regional landslide and liquefaction predictions impacting infrastructure, and (4) simultaneously identify damage degrees in thousands of buildings. For city-scale, building-by-building damage assessments, we use building footprints and satellite imagery with a spatial resolution of approximately 30 meters. This allows us to achieve a high resolution in damage assessment, both in timeliness and scale, enabling damage classification at the individual building level within days of the earthquake. Our findings detail the extent of building damage, including collapses, in Hatay, Osmaniye, Adıyaman, Gaziantep, and Kahramanmaras. We classified building damages into five categories: no damage, slight, moderate, partial collapse, and collapse. We evaluated damage estimates against preliminary ground-truth data reported by the civil authorities. Our results demonstrate the accuracy of our classification system, as evidenced by the area under the curve (AUC) scores on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which ranged from 0.9588 to 0.9931 across different damage categories and regions. Specifically, our model achieved an AUC of 0.9931 for collapsed buildings in the Hatay/Osmaniye area, indicating a 99.31% probability that the model will rank a randomly chosen collapsed building higher than a randomly chosen non-collapsed building. These accurate, building-specific damage estimates, with greater than 95% classification accuracy across all categories, are crucial for disaster response and can aid agencies in effectively allocating resources and coordinating efforts during disaster recovery.