Remote sensing of chlorophyll a and temperature to support algal bloom monitoring in Blue Mesa Reservoir, Colorado

Abstract

We present methods to reconstruct historical chlorophyll a and surface water temperatures from satellite-based remote sensing products for Blue Mesa Reservoir, Colorado, to support algal bloom monitoring. A machine learning model was trained to construct chlorophyll a concentrations from Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and in situ measurements of chlorophyll a concentrations (out of bag RMSE = 1.9 μg/L, R 2 = 0.63) and reconstruct summertime chlorophyll a concentrations over the entire reservoir from 2016 through 2023. Concurrently, we developed an approach to retrieve remotely sensed water temperatures from the Landsat collection 2 provisional surface temperature product (MAE = 0.6°C) and reconstructed summertime surface water temperature records from 2000 through 2023. Finally, we demonstrate how the reconstructed chlorophyll a and temperature records can yield insight on reservoir dynamics. The chlorophyll a records indicate that algal blooms have a consistent spatial pattern across multiple years, initiating in the eastern end of the reservoir and spreading to the west over time. Water temperatures increased at a linearized rate of 0.3°C per decade from 2000 through 2023 and were inversely proportional to reservoir water surface elevation. Finally, mean summer remotely sensed chlorophyll a concentration had a moderately positive correlation with mean summer remotely sensed water temperature.