Variability in hydrologic response to wildfire between snow zones in forested headwaters

Abstract

Rising temperatures and shifting fire regimes in the western United States are pushing fires upslope into areas of deep winter snowpack, where we have little knowledge of the likely hydrologic impacts of wildfire. We quantified differences in the timing and magnitude of stormflow responses to summer rainstorms among six catchments of varying levels of burn severity and seasonal snowpack cover for years 1–3 after the 2020 Cameron Peak fire. Our objectives were to (1) examine whether responsiveness, magnitude, and timing of stormflow responses to rainfall vary between burned and unburned catchments and between snow zones, and (2) identify the factors that affect these responses. We evaluated whether differences in storm hydrograph peak flow, total flow, stage rise, and lag to peak time differed by snow zone and burn category using generalised linear models. Additional predictors in these models are the maximum 60-min rainfall intensity for each storm, the cumulative potential water deficit prior to the storm, and the year post-fire. These models showed that the high snow zone (HSZ) has higher total stormflow than the low snow zone (LSZ), likely due to the higher soil moisture content in that area. In both snow zones, the biggest driver of the magnitude of the stormflow response was MI 60 . Burn category did not have a clear impact on stormflow response in the HSZ, but it did impact stage rise at the severely burned catchment in the LSZ. This was the only site that had widespread overland flow post-fire. These results demonstrate that the stormflow responses to fire vary between snow zones, indicating a need to account for elevation and snow persistence in post-fire risk assessments.