Reconciling bias in moderate magnitude earthquake ground motions predicted by numerical simulations

Abstract

Recent studies found a significant underprediction in ground motion intensity measures for finite-fault simulations of moderate magnitude events in southern California relative to established ground motion models. This study aims to understand the source(s) of this bias by evaluating ground motion residuals. For this, simulations have been performed for a total of 27 well-recorded earthquakes in southern California. Systematic efforts have been employed to identify the source(s) of bias by ruling out factors that are insignificant. Preliminary findings indicate that the magnitude-area scaling used in the simulations is the likely major cause of the observed bias. Adjustment in the source attributes on event-by-event basis is underway to study if the observed bias can be reconciled.