Environmental drivers of biseasonal anthrax outbreak dynamics in two multihost savanna systems

Yen-Hua Huang; Kyrre Kausrud; Ayesha Hassim; Sunday O. Ochai; O. Louis van Schalkwyk; Edgar H. Dekker; Alexander Buyantuev; Claudine C. Cloete; J. Werner Kilian; John K.E. Mfune; Pauline L. Kamath; Henriette van Heerden; Wendy Christine Turner

doi:10.1002/ecm.1526

USGS · 70262380

Environmental drivers of biseasonal anthrax outbreak dynamics in two multihost savanna systems

Yen-Hua Huang·Kyrre Kausrud·Ayesha Hassim·Sunday O. Ochai·O. Louis van Schalkwyk·Edgar H. Dekker·Alexander Buyantuev·Claudine C. Cloete·J. Werner Kilian·John K.E. Mfune·Pauline L. Kamath·Henriette van Heerden·Wendy Christine Turner

View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Environmental factors are common forces driving infectious disease dynamics. We compared interannual and seasonal patterns of anthrax infections in two multihost systems in southern Africa: Etosha National Park, Namibia, and Kruger National Park, South Africa. Using several decades of mortality data from each system, we assessed possible transmission mechanisms behind anthrax dynamics, examining (1) within- and between-species temporal case correlations and (2) associations between anthrax mortalities and environmental factors, specifically rainfall and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), with empirical dynamic modeling. Anthrax cases in Kruger had wide interannual variation in case numbers, and large outbreaks seemed to follow a roughly decadal cycle. In contrast, outbreaks in Etosha were smaller in magnitude and occurred annually. In Etosha, the host species commonly affected remained consistent over several decades, although plains zebra ( Equus quagga ) became relatively more dominant. In Kruger, turnover of the main host species occurred after the 1990s, where the previously dominant host species, greater kudu ( Tragelaphus strepsiceros ), was replaced by impala ( Aepyceros melampus ). In both parks, anthrax infections showed two seasonal peaks, with each species having only one peak in a year. Zebra, springbok ( Antidorcas marsupialis ), wildebeest ( Connochaetes taurinus ), and impala cases peaked in wet seasons, while elephant ( Loxodonta africana ), kudu, and buffalo ( Syncerus caffer ) cases peaked in dry seasons. For common host species shared between the two parks, anthrax mortalities peaked in the same season in both systems. Among host species with cases peaking in the same season, anthrax mortalities were mostly synchronized, which implies similar transmission mechanisms or shared sources of exposure. Between seasons, outbreaks in one species may contribute to more cases in another species in the following season. Higher vegetation greenness was associated with more zebra and springbok anthrax mortalities in Etosha but fewer elephant cases in Kruger. These results suggest that host behavioral responses to changing environmental conditions may affect anthrax transmission risk, with differences in transmission mechanisms leading to multihost biseasonal outbreaks. This study reveals the dynamics and potential environmental drivers of anthrax in two savanna systems, providing a better understanding of factors driving biseasonal dynamics and outbreak variation among locations.

Explore related subjects

Ecological Monographs Article

Source-reported bounding extent: -25.569715149900304° to -17.953206628620634° latitude; 13.99697075011565° to 32.07283709158796° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeX RIS

Yen-Hua Huang, Kyrre Kausrud, Ayesha Hassim, Sunday O. Ochai, O. Louis van Schalkwyk, Edgar H. Dekker, Alexander Buyantuev, Claudine C. Cloete, J. Werner Kilian, John K.E. Mfune, Pauline L. Kamath, Henriette van Heerden, Wendy Christine Turner. 2022-05-31. Environmental drivers of biseasonal anthrax outbreak dynamics in two multihost savanna systems. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1526

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

USGS2026

Probabilistic forecasting of coastal wetland elevation and soil carbon response to sea-level rise

Tidal wetlands build soil as a dynamic response to inundation, resulting in carbon sequestration and resilience to sea-level rise. Process models can be used to make site-specific forecasts, anticipate future changes, and plan management responses. But to be actionable, forecasts from these models need to be accompanied by descriptions of their confidence. In this study, we demonstrate the application of ecological forecasting principles to the unique case of tidal wetland vulnerability and carbon storage, given accelerating and uncertain sea-level rise. We present a case study using the Cohort Marsh Equilibrium Model at the Global Change Research Wetland in Maryland, USA. We used meta-analyses to quantify lab- and sample-level measurement uncertainties for common soil measurements and to develop Bayesian model priors. Reanalysis of previous literature supported predictive relationships between belowground turnover and mean annual temperature, as well as between soil erodibility and suspended sediment concentration that could be transferable to other locations. The model forecasted a likely conversion of low-elevation marsh to open water by the 2060s, accompanied by a decrease in marsh carbon storage capacity. Forecasted uncertainty in elevation was dominated by structural uncertainty in the model, while carbon accumulation rates were more influenced by parameter uncertainty. After 2050, and increasingly as the forecast approached 2100, uncertainty in sea-level rise projections contributed to uncertainty in both forecasts. Forecasts were most sensitive to processes related to organic matter preservation, plant productivity (maximum aboveground biomass and belowground turnover), and organic soil packing density. The soil formed was an organic-rich peat (>70% organic matter according to the data), and model predictions were insensitive to parameters associated with mineral sedimentation. We identify additional field data collection, such as on decomposition trajectories and plant productivity, and data-model coupling of near-term elevation records as the most impactful strategies for reducing uncertainties in future forecasting efforts. Future work can build on this forecasting framework in other locations, using it for adaptive management, identifying appropriate interventions to mitigate wetland loss, and projecting future carbon removal capacity in response to accelerated sea-level rise.

Maryland↗

USGS2025

Missing data in ecology: Syntheses, clarifications, and considerations

In ecology and related sciences, missing data are common and occur in a variety of different contexts. When missing data are not handled properly, subsequent statistical estimates tend to be biased, inefficient, and lack proper confidence interval coverage. Missing data are often grouped into three categories: missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR), and missing not at random (MNAR). We review each category and compare their benefits and drawbacks. We review several approaches to handling missing data including complete case analysis, imputation, inverse probability weighting, and data augmentation. We clarify what types of variables should accompany imputation methods and how those variables are influenced by the analysis methods. Additionally, we discuss missing data that lack a formal basis for measurement and hence are fundamentally different from MCAR, MAR, and MNAR missing data. Throughout, we introduce concepts and numeric examples using both simulated data and data from the United States Environmental Protection Agency's 2016 National Wetland Condition Assessment. We conclude by providing five considerations for ecologists and other scientists handling missing data.

Ecological Monographs↗

USGS2025

Mammalian predator co‐occurrence affected by prey and habitat more than competitor presence at multiple time scales

The behavior and abundance of sympatric predators can be affected by a complex dominance hierarchy. The strength of antagonistic interactions in predator communities is difficult to study and remains poorly understood for many predator assemblages. Predators directly and indirectly influence the broader ecosystem, so identifying the relative importance of competition, prey, and habitat in shaping predator interactions has broad conservation and management implications. We investigated space use among five predator species (black bear [ Ursus americanus ], bobcat [ Lynx rufus ], coyote [ Canis latrans ], mountain lion [ Puma concolor ], and gray wolf [ Canis lupus ]) across three temporal scales in northern Idaho, USA. We used camera trap data to test whether potentially subordinate predators spatially avoided dominant predators and how prey availability influenced those relationships. We found few instances of subordinate predators spatially avoiding dominant predators and only at the finest temporal scale of our analyses. Instead, habitat features generally influenced predator space use patterns at coarser scales whereas prey and competitor presence influenced space use patterns at finer scales. Co-occurrence was positively associated between coyotes and bobcats at coarser timescales and between mesopredators and apex predators at finer timescales. Bobcats and mountain lions temporarily delayed the use of sites recently visited by coyotes and black bears, respectively. And all predator species used sites sooner following the detection of a competitor in areas with higher relative abundances of prey (primarily white-tailed deer [ Odocoileus virginianus ]). Our results suggest attraction to shared habitats and prey resources influenced space use in the predator community more than avoidance of competitors. We propose that the effects of interspecific interactions on predator distributions were most evident for mesopredators because their trophic position requires balancing risks and rewards associated with prey, apex predators, and other mesopredators. In addition, relatively high densities of a common prey source likely facilitated the spatial coexistence in this predator community. Our study demonstrates the value of simultaneously assessing multiple interspecific interactions across different spatiotemporal scales to discern relationships within the predator guild.

Idaho↗