A proposed methodology for conducting threats assessments within the Great Lakes Coregonines restoration framework

Abstract

This document serves to fulfill the Coregonine Threats Assessment Science Team’s charge of providing a written recommendation for a methodology to conduct threats assessments for Great Lakes coregonines within the Coregonine Restoration Framework (CRF). Through a series of team meetings that included presentations by experts on five candidate threats assessment frameworks followed by structured deliberations, we came to consensus to recommend the threats assessment framework used by Fisheries and Oceans Canada under Canada’s Species at Risk Act, with three modifications: (1) a conceptual modeling step, (2) the use of a “point spreading” approach to incorporate uncertainty when scoring threats, and (3) the use of a modified Delphi or “estimate-talk-estimate” approach when scoring key elements in the assessment. We recommend that this approach be applied to the spatial units delineated by the CRF Resolve Taxonomy and Gap Analysis science teams. In brief, the assessment process includes providing background information on the spatial unit and threats under assessment, constructing a conceptual model linking threats to key processes and vital rates, and scoring or ranking threats across six elements: likelihood of occurrence, level of impact, strength of evidence, unit-level threat occurrence, unit-level threat frequency, and unit-level threat extent. We provide detailed instructions for completing each step of the assessment and generating associated results, with particular attention paid to our suggested modifications. The Coregonine Threats Assessment Science Team also conducted two test runs to assess the applicability and effectiveness of our recommended framework for Great Lakes coregonine populations and their threats. We conducted these test runs on two examples of Great Lakes coregonines that represented two extremes of data availability, as well as two different management contexts. We chose Kiyi (Coregonus kiyi) in Lake Ontario as an example of a data-poor, extirpated population, and we chose Cisco (Coregonus artedi) in Lake Superior as an example of a data-rich, extant population. We provide the results of these test runs in Appendices 1-2. We also describe the lessons we learned from these test runs throughout this document and highlighted them in the “Recommendations for avoiding challenges during application” section.