Predicting probabilities of late summer surface flow presence in a glaciated mountainous headwater region

Kristin L. Jaeger; Roy Sando; Sarah B. Dunn; Andrew S. Gendaszek

doi:10.1002/hyp.14813

Home/Archive/USGS

USGS · 70240754

Predicting probabilities of late summer surface flow presence in a glaciated mountainous headwater region

Kristin L. Jaeger·Roy Sando·Sarah B. Dunn·Andrew S. Gendaszek

View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Accurate mapping of streams that maintain surface flow during annual baseflow periods in mountain headwater streams is important for informing water availability for human consumption and is a fundamental determinant of in-channel conditions for stream-dwelling organisms. Yet accurate mapping that captures local spatial variability and associated local controls on surface flow presence is limited. An empirical random-forest model was developed to predict streamflow permanence (late summer surface-flow presence) for Mount Rainier National Park and the surrounding mountainous area in western Washington, USA. This model was developed to improve upon the existing multi-state, regional-scale probability of stream permanence developed for the greater Pacific Northwest Region (PROSPER PNW ). The model was trained on 544 wet/dry observations collected during the late summer, baseflow period from 2018 to 2020 using the crowd-source mobile application, FLOwPER. Final model accuracy was 0.74 with drainage area and covariates describing geology, topography, and land cover as top predictors of streamflow permanence compared to coarser resolution climatic covariates. The prevalence of static covariates over climatic covariates as top ranked important covariates highlights the importance of scale when evaluating controls on streamflow permanence. Cross validation of the model indicates that streamflow permanence probabilities from this model is an improvement over the regional-scale PROSPER PNW model demonstrating the utility of relatively simple, crowd-sourced data to address water resource needs, and that determination of important predictors of streamflow permanence is influenced by the spatial and temporal resolution of analysis.

Explore related subjects

Hydrological Processes Article

Source-reported bounding extent: 45.54239311283217° to 47.369052224585346° latitude; -122.91425095542269° to -120.60477240967734° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeX RIS

Kristin L. Jaeger, Roy Sando, Sarah B. Dunn, Andrew S. Gendaszek. 2023-02-16. Predicting probabilities of late summer surface flow presence in a glaciated mountainous headwater region. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14813

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

USGS2026

Potential warming-induced changes in stream water sources between proglacial and non-glacial streams, south-central Alaska

Snow and ice-melt are essential for global water resources. Rising air temperatures are causing vegetation encroachment and shrubification of previously snow- and ice-covered landscapes, and precipitation regimes are changing. Collectively, these changes will likely affect the hydrology of mountain environments, although the exact ways in which the hydrology will change are poorly understood. Changing source waters (i.e., the proportion of ice-melt, snowmelt, rain and groundwater) affect the timing and magnitude of streamflow and affect stream temperature, sediment, solute and nutrient fluxes. We investigate spatial and seasonal source water contributions across sub-watersheds of the Nellie Juan River watershed on Alaska's Kenai Peninsula, which differ in glacier cover, elevation and land cover, using a space-for-time approach. To do so, we use a three-endmember mixing model to quantify the contribution of rain, snow/ice-melt and deep groundwater. We show that snow/ice-melt peak later in proglacial streams compared to non-glacial streams. Endmember contributions in non-glacial streams generally vary with elevation and season. We also found that groundwater is a major contributor to streamflow across the study area, contributing between 12% and 47% seasonally, and may become increasingly important as snowpack and ice-melt decrease. This research characterises the shift from a glacierised to a deglaciating landscape through the lens of source water contribution. Broadly, these findings could help improve understanding of how water resources in glacierised watersheds are affected by warming air temperatures.

Alaska↗

USGS2026

Streamflow and surface-water presence data availability across the conterminous United States: A review for headwater systems

Water is essential for life on Earth, supporting ecosystems, human health, and economic activities. Hydrology relies on observational data, and this paper discusses regional and national datasets for the conterminous United States (CONUS) publicly available as of 2023, focusing on headwaters, defined as first- and second-order streams at 1:24000 scale. It identifies 72 primary and secondary datasets and 11 repositories and argues how better integration and accessibility of hydrological data can improve research. The paper distinguishes between datasets where streamflow was the primary data collection objective and those where it was secondary. This distinction highlights opportunities to consider data from efforts peripheral to hydrology but is still useful for understanding hydrologic conditions. The analysis reveals that out of about 118 000 active and inactive stream observation sites, about 6.6% and 25% are located on first- and second-order streams, respectively. This indicates a substantial data gap for headwater systems, which account for over 77% of stream length in CONUS. Federal agencies manage 72% of hydrologic monitoring sites across all stream orders, but only 34% of these are in headwater systems. Academic institutions operate about 2% of sites, with almost half (48%) in headwater systems, focusing on ecosystem research. State agencies also operate about 2% of sites, primarily on larger systems, with 19% on headwaters. Additionally, 23% of sites are managed by multiple agencies. Spatial patterns further reveal pronounced disparities among physiographic regions. Eastern and coastal provinces show relatively dense monitoring, while central and western regions show sparse coverage. These gaps reflect historical priorities, logistical constraints, funding limitations, and the high cost of continuous instrumentation. To address biases in monitoring networks, data collection could be enhanced with low-cost monitoring, community science, and remote sensing technologies. This study also notes the benefits of long-term monitoring and prioritizing retention of streamgages with longer records.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2026

A novel drive-point multilevel system to investigate PFAS and other contaminants of global concern in the hyporheic zone of a wastewater effluent dominated stream

Contaminants found in treated wastewater discharged to streams, including pharmaceuticals and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), are of global concern due to their deleterious effects on aquatic ecosystems and potential impacts to human health. Hyporheic zones have strong potential for contaminant attenuation. Assessing this potential requires collection of physical and biogeochemical data within the hyporheic zone. This study tested the applicability of a novel drive-point multilevel system (DP-MLS) for quantifying head profiles and characterizing contaminant concentrations in the hyporheic zone of a temperate region effluent dominated stream (EDS). DP-MLS, each with 4 ports, were installed in the stream bed at two sites, DS-1 and DS-2, 0.2 and 4.7 km downstream of the effluent outfall, respectively. Head profiles were measured and groundwater collected for analysis of pharmaceuticals and PFAS temporally over two years. The DP-MLS withstood rapid changes in stage, ice formation, and floating debris. Vertical hydraulic gradients (VHG) were generally upward but varied in magnitude indicating heterogeneity in hydraulic conductivity and variability in flow conditions. Upward VHG were also about 2X larger at DS-1 than at DS-2. Contaminant concentration profiles consistently showed penetration of pharmaceuticals and PFAS to 1 m below the bed at DS-2 while there was less penetration, lower groundwater concentrations, and more temporal variability in concentrations at DS-1. Integration of the physical and chemical data suggests weaker upwelling conditions at DS-2 are more easily reversed during periods of high stream stage, which could facilitate migration of wastewater contaminants into the bed. However, further studies incorporating other transport processes and reach scale dynamics are required to fully characterize these exchanges. Overall, this study demonstrates the efficacy of these novel DP-MLSs for characterization of the hyporheic zone and provides new insights into the occurrence, composition, and persistence of wastewater derived contaminants in the hyporheic zone of a well-studied EDS.

Iowa↗