Can we prove that an undetected species is absent? Evaluating whether brown treesnakes are established on the island of Saipan using surveillance and expert opinion

Abstract

Detection of invasive species and decisions centered around early detection and rapid response (EDRR) are notorious challenges for decision makers. Detection probability is low for cryptic species, resources are limited, and ecological harm (especially for island ecosystems) can result from failure to remove invasive species due to inadequate or delayed surveillance efforts. Due to the proximity to the U.S. territory of Guam and inter-island traffic, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) is at high risk of colonization by the invasive and cryptic brown treesnake ( Boiga irregularis ; BTS). There have been numerous reports of snakes and 7 confirmed specimens secured at ports of entry on the island of Saipan in the CNMI over the last four decades, raising the possibility that a population might be established. Establishment of BTS on Saipan is a major concern, as evidenced by the ecological and economic disruption that occurred on Guam. We evaluated the possibility of a small localized population on Saipan using evidence from surveillance efforts in 1999, 2007, 2009, 2016, and 2018, and from results of expert assessment of the credibility of non-confirmed reports of snakes for the period 1982–2013. For active surveillance efforts, we use a Poisson-based model to estimate the 95% probability of at least one snake being detected at a stated density given the level of sampling effort and detection probability. Based on this collective evidence we conclude there is a low probability that Saipan currently has an incipient population of BTS. However, with the continued presence of BTS on Guam, continuing commercial and military transportation in the region, and relief shipments responding to increased storm intensity, Saipan remains highly vulnerable to accidental introductions. Effective surveillance remains a crucial element for detection of any species, but this may be particularly true for a cryptic snake that is difficult to control once established.