Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making

James D. Nichols; Tiffany L. Bogich; Emily Howerton; Ottar N. Bjornstad; Rebecca K. Borchering; Matthew J. Ferrari; Murali Haran; Christopher P. Jewell; Kim M. Pepin; William J. M. Probert; Juliet R. C. Pulliam; Michael C. Runge; Michael J. Tildesley; Cecile Viboud; Katriona Shea

doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3001307

USGS · 70221543

Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making

James D. Nichols·Tiffany L. Bogich·Emily Howerton·Ottar N. Bjornstad·Rebecca K. Borchering·Matthew J. Ferrari·Murali Haran·Christopher P. Jewell·Kim M. Pepin·William J. M. Probert·Juliet R. C. Pulliam·Michael C. Runge·Michael J. Tildesley·Cecile Viboud·Katriona Shea

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Abstract

More than 1.6 million Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) tests were administered daily in the United States at the peak of the epidemic, with a significant focus on individual treatment. Here, we show that objective-driven, strategic sampling designs and analyses can maximize information gain at the population level, which is necessary to increase situational awareness and predict, prepare for, and respond to a pandemic, while also continuing to inform individual treatment. By focusing on specific objectives such as individual treatment or disease prediction and control (e.g., via the collection of population-level statistics to inform lockdown measures or vaccine rollout) and drawing from the literature on capture–recapture methods to deal with nonrandom sampling and testing errors, we illustrate how public health objectives can be achieved even with limited test availability when testing programs are designed a priori to meet those objectives.

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James D. Nichols, Tiffany L. Bogich, Emily Howerton, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Rebecca K. Borchering, Matthew J. Ferrari, Murali Haran, Christopher P. Jewell, Kim M. Pepin, William J. M. Probert, Juliet R. C. Pulliam, Michael C. Runge, Michael J. Tildesley, Cecile Viboud, Katriona Shea. 2021-06-17. Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3001307

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