Forecasting eruptions in the Circum-Pacific

Ground ruptures attributed to groundwater overexploitation damaging Jocotepec city in Jalisco, Mexico: 2016 field excursion of IGCP-641

IGCP Project 641 (Mechanisms, Monitoring and Modeling Earth Fissure generation and Fault activation due to subsurface Fluid exploitation – M3EF3) held its second international workshop from November 2 to 6, 2016, in Puerto Vallarta and included a two-day field trip to Guadalajara and Jocotepec in the Mexican state of Jalisco (Fig. 1a). M3EF3 is aimed at i) understanding the mechanisms that cause the formation of “ground ruptures”, as a response to changes in the stress state in the subsoil, ii) monitoring their occurrence, and iii) developing appropriate approaches to model their formation and growth. Notice that many times it is difficult to discern whether a particular instance of a “ruptured” land surface is due to an earth fissure with a surface manifestation or a surface failure associated with the activation of a pre-existing fault, especially where a fault has not been mapped and where there is no obvious scarp. Therefore, in M3EF3 we preferred to use the term “ground rupture”, to refer to both such occurrences.